Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Broad market part 2 [11.25.2025]
Episode Date: November 25, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or Bi...zTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It is November 25th, 2025.
It's Tuesday.
Hope you having a good day.
As always, we have a lot to cover, starting with the last week, we'll call it a nice little whipsaw.
For those of you who invested in the Vanguard S&P 30 years ago, you need not worry about anything we have to say, because that's been doing pretty darn well.
But a lot of jello moving on the plate, ladies and gentlemen, and we are going to cover it all.
and in case you don't know this is
serious talk on everything that affects you will do the markets
the economy your job your industry
the more locks in DC
and boy are they the worst
they're the worst
and anything else that comes to mind
by the way we hit I'm told
39 trillion of debt now
yeah sure right
39 trillion
39
I want to make sure you understand
stand. That's $39 trillion over and above what they were supposed to spend. Now imagine if
you as an American did that. In my tidbit section of Investors' Edge today, today we're doing
tidbits. It's when I bust out just little one or two-lined things on just things that are
going on that are quite interesting. You'll hear some of the numbers. And just remember, all done on
purpose, one worse than the other. It really started getting amplified under Bush. To Obama,
to Trump, to Biden, to Trump, all have lied out their butts about what they would do with their
debt and deficits. They're not Republicans. They're not Democrats. You got that? Bush,
Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump.
Go back and see how much debt we had before the year 2000.
And they don't give a crap because it's their mother's milk.
The reason why Trump didn't do anything about what Biden did,
even though they complained about it for how long?
Is because if they lowered spending in government,
it comes off of GDP.
And God forbid.
And I know you keep hearing, well, they fire.
this, that, this, that. We're still running $2 trillion deficit this year, maybe a little less,
maybe a little bit more. They are all guilty. And I couldn't give a crap about any of them
professionally. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. We'll also post it
on the YouTube channel of Biz TV. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. And by the way,
for you Trump fans, instead of getting pissed at me, get pissed at him.
How's that?
Every now and then I get an email.
By the way, everybody's been very respectful.
Disagreement, but respectful.
I've had nobody cursing me out or anything, as of yet.
But instead of getting mad at others that are telling you facts, get mad at the people
that are committing what are not crimes, but should be.
And that's that.
Hey, we're going to go with the markets.
We're going to start with the markets because Dow is up 664, S&P up 60, NASDAQ 153, NASDAQ 144, Russell 2000, more than 2%.
Transports more than 2%.
Advanced declines good, up-down volume good, got better throughout the day.
The NASDAQ was very weak early because of things that are going on with Nvidia and advanced microdevices and Google and this stock and that stock.
The big story is this. Listen carefully.
On Friday, the day after, a vicious, ugly, one of the worst, one of the worst vicious reversals I have ever seen a could on Thursday with the big invidia drop from the gap opening on their earnings report.
out of nowhere, and let me be blunt and saying,
out of nowhere, let me say it one more time,
out of nowhere, the broad market
lit up like a pinball machine on Friday.
What do we mean by the broad market?
Well, as we've told you, for months and months and months,
avoid this, avoid, this avoid, avoid, this avoid, avoid this, avoid this, avoid this,
why they were in downtrends.
and recently they had got better.
But on Friday, and I even said it felt like something of import,
let's see if there's follow through.
And we're talking about the restaurants that have been the brutal bear market,
the housing and housing related, bare market, the transports, truckers, rails,
bare market, most retail, bare market.
The payroll companies, bare market, the auto dealers, bare market.
Managed care, bare market.
Waste management, bare market.
Cruise lines, airlines, hotels, bearish market.
Economically sensitive names, not non-artificial intelligence.
Bare market.
Insurance.
Barish market.
A lot of financials.
Barish market.
Not necessarily big.
Some things big bears.
Our lesser tech page bearish with some stocks way down.
I'm talking way way down.
And on Friday, I considered it a wake-up call.
But nothing more than that.
Because what you always need on the wake-up calls, give me some follow-through.
Give me some meaning to it.
Let's put a stamp on it.
And today, let me just state for the record, was another day where restaurants, economically sensitive, insurance, other financials, airlines, cruise lines, hotels, transports, housing, housing related, waste management,
auto dealers lesser tech just very strong to the point where you got some breakouts
you have some breakouts of range and we're talking long trading ranges in some hotels
one cruise line and other stuff steel stocks look on the verge of breaking out i got some retail names
breaking out of range.
Now notice, I didn't even mention health care yet
because health care is actually doing a little bit of leading at this point.
So very good broad market day.
But what's interesting about me saying this,
the Dow, just so you know,
is just getting back the last six days, last five days of drop.
including that vicious reversal day.
That's all that's happened.
The Dow has done nothing in two months.
And by the way, the Dow, since Thanksgiving of 24,
45,000 to 471, 21, not even 5%.
Not even 5.
But great recovery off of Thursday's nausea.
even more interesting that tech was getting wrecked again today
wrecked
good comeback by the end of the day
and we'll get into that invidia crap in a little bit
but the story is
the broad market two out of three days
awoke
will it last as we tell you
no clue
we'll let more cards
come out of the deck
all we can tell
you, damn strong. I can't complain. What's interesting is that the S&P lags the Dow, which is not
normal, except the S&P has a lot more tech in it, and tech has been on the weaker side,
notwithstanding one big strong day recently. But that's the story. I could not explain it any
better anymore. The bottom line is you had a wake-up call. Let's hope it lasts. Up next, more in the
markets. And tidbits day. Got some interesting stuff. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investor's Edge. We're not just
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Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And well, once again to Investor's Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
And may I state for the record, the last week, just the last week, has been stunning.
Just the last week.
Wild swings.
Wild moves.
Any idea what gives?
No.
Don't care.
when we scan at night we forget about it all and that's it most earnings there's other earnings
coming out but you know the plethora of earnings is already out we think what's driving a little
bit of the bus here is number one the fed the predictions at least of the fed lowering rates in
December when the predictions were they weren't have gone from like 20 up to 80 some odd percent
but I think there's something else going on.
I think it was leaked that Kevin Hassett,
I think his title may be head of economic advisors,
will be nominated to be the next Fed head.
And as I have told you, whoever he nominates President Trump,
Trump's going to be running the Fed.
And I can promise you they're going to do everything they can
to take Fed funds rates down to nothing.
and let's hope I'm going to be wrong on that
because if I told you if they go too easy
with an inflationary environment which is not gone yet
they may stoke inflation like crazy again
just remember inflation is a monetary
outcome
it happens because you have morons running government
and when you do too easy economic policy
like Powell did, 0% rates printing to $9 trillion, he caused the inflation.
And there was a direct correlation with inflation coming down when Powell stopped printing
and started letting it run off.
Now they're going to be doing the opposite, it looks like.
I hope I am wrong.
I hope I'm a big time wrong.
Next thing I do want to mention, oh, all this talk.
all the talk
all the talk
is of
recessions
and slowdowns
and all that
well how can you have a recession when government spending
seven trillion bucks
but I digress
there's no way
anything of consequence
is going to occur
if the broad market's
getting going
just letting you know
and we know this because the broad market is always flushed out a recession of consequence.
Beforehand.
So just letting you know, of course I do worry a lot of its government.
Unfortunately, a lot of it.
They're going to spend seven point something this year, kids.
And I don't care who it is.
They don't really give a crap about us.
Just be in power, get elected.
Some do better things than other.
I'd like to give credit.
Oh, we have given credit on certain things.
We think the border thing was fantastic by Trump.
Fantastic.
And just told you how bad Biden was, the worst ever.
The worst president ever, and by far Joe Biden.
And we've had some bad ones.
Now, if only this president, but that's going to be asking too much.
And you know what I mean by that.
Done some great things.
but if only.
What else?
Well, I mentioned to you the areas,
your job is to start paying attention to them.
And I must tell you, my job is a little bit tougher
because for a long while,
I did not have to pay attention to them at all.
I just watch them go lower and lower and lower and lower.
And by the way, still not.
The home builders bouncing up here
actually a strong day
not in a bull market
it's a recovery but a pretty good recovery
I'm looking for leadership
best stuff
and leadership right now
you're getting some in health care
and you got some retail breakouts
Ralph Laurenne raw stores
and I gather more will show up
hotels Hilton Marriott
Hyatt and by the way
we're not telling you to buy sell
shorter cover
do your own thinking, do your own work.
We're just letting you know.
They're out there setting up and moving out.
Will they fail? Don't know.
Will they succeed? Don't know.
Because we don't know.
We've seen a lot of breakouts fail in the recent past.
So we can be hopeful and see how it goes.
typically the best stock is the first one to break out and guess what in retail apparel
Ralph Floren just broke out it's already up about 4% in two days that was the guinea pig
now we'll see if others follow suit good volume on it today also so that's the story
other things today crypto is again down micro strategy down another six bucks today
I've never seen a CEO so sanguine about people losing their money.
And we want to remind you that MSTU, a two-time micro strategy, has gone from $33 down to a buck.
We have warned you about the twos and the threes and the fours.
Do you know there are five-times ETFs now?
You know what that means.
If you put all your money in a five-time-E-F and it drops 20%, you lose all your money.
You do know that, right?
You do know that, right?
And the opposite is true if you, if it works out.
It pisses me off that Wall Street has even allowed it.
It's worse than a casino on some of these things.
Regional banks.
Haven't had to mention them in a long while.
When you have a chance, go look at the KRE,
Regional Bank ETF, it's done nothing.
But it broke back above the 50-day moving average today,
which is a first start.
But I mean when I say it's done nothing.
Oh, I mean it's done nothing.
Do you know the KRE, the Regional Bank Index,
was $51 in 06.
It's 63 today.
It's up 20% in 19 years.
Let's be generous.
I can't be.
It's down since 2018.
Just another day.
tidbit. Up next, what drove the Dow? And tidbit's day, this is the one only investors at.
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1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by
Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
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and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,
you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once,
and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps
your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show
with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself
for an hour, you might as well publish it.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So, to give you an idea about the Dow.
Home Depot today was up probably around 90 Dow points.
It was up 14.5 bucks.
Stock has been trashed.
But a rally, 14.
half bucks today even though they missed numbers gave bad guidance why is it rallying the market's
changed it's buying back up it's buying into for this second the housing and housing related
remember market over sectors over stocks that's how it works but that gives you an
understanding the worst stock in the Dow up almost I got about 90 Dow points today
and then you can go through the rest, which takes me to NVIDIA, one of the three stocks down.
In case you don't know, NVIDIA dropped today.
$4.73, and that was after being down about 12.
Hold on.
It hit 169.55.
It was down $13 at one time.
I didn't even realize that.
Yeah, actually hit that.
So here's the story.
Facebook meta
looks like they're going to buy their chips through Google
and not Nvidia
which would help
hurt AMD
help Broadcom
hurt Taiwan Semiconductor
who makes the Nvidia chips
and Nvidia came out and defended themselves today
and Nvidia's down a buck in the aftermarket
too
Nvidia completely failed its big earnings report.
Let me teach you capitalism, ladies and gentlemen,
and this should be the worry for everybody who owns Google.
Excuse me, Invidia.
And this is not a prediction, but how capitalism works.
When you are the head honcho top dog big cheese,
when you're the grand poohbah, everybody else sees what you're doing.
And you know what they all try to do.
come up with something better, faster, quicker, cheaper.
There's the problem for NVIDIA.
And I am promising you across the world.
The word isn't they are being attacked, but that is a big issue.
Especially when I'm reading that they charge a lot and others are charging less.
And when I'm reading that the new ones actually look at.
better or work better than we'll see watch the stock i don't tell you everything and viti's stock
under pressure right now was much worse today lucky that the market had a good day because i got news for
you that sucker was getting yonked the other part is it's so over owned over love over leverage so
we'll watch it and see we do not own it right now no reason to that reversal just
took us out of the competition.
There's your NVIDIA.
And for those,
we pay a lot of attention to people that we believe
are pretty darn smart.
Pretty darn smart.
And I'm going to read something to you.
The crews in Abilene, Texas, of course,
are assembling eight different data center buildings
spanning around 4 million square feet.
The campus will ultimately draw up to 1.2 gigawatts of power or enough to juice for about a million homes.
Lining the insides will be around 500,000 Nvidia chips stuffed into dense racks requiring constant cooling.
Financially, the venture depends heavily on Oracle, which has leased it for 15 years.
Oracle, in turn, will rely on a single customer.
Sam Altman's Open AI for some $300 billion in long-term revenues.
Meanwhile, Oracle is buying chips from Nvidia, which has committed $100 billion to Open AI.
There's your circular vendor financing.
In a nutshell.
And why Oracle's stock has gone from $345 to under $200.
Think about this.
In order for Oracle to do all this, they're going to rely on one cup.
which is open AI and needs 300 billion in long-term revenue and they're committed to buying chips from
Nvidia which is committed to a hundred billion giving to open a this is the type of crap that brought down
99 I'm not saying it's going to again but this is a sore thumb and all I can tell you is
Oracle stock has acted in kind and I haven't even mentioned all the debt. Just letting you know.
We hope it works out. We do not like failure. We like success. We are quite capitalist here.
And we want nothing but good news. Good news today. Oil dropped almost a buck and yields were down again.
And it's good to see. Again, the big story, the broad market.
very good day today two out of three and we think it's got a shot I'll go for a bit
and there's your story today not much more I can tell you on the markets some
weak tech early bounce by the end of the day we'll see if that can follow through
I noticed some of the software security stocks bouncing good but now Z scale ZS is down
23 bucks in the aftermarket. So that be dead. Earnings. And again, there's some more earnings to come
out, but not much. Again, Thursday, we're off. Friday, we're off. Happy Thanksgiving to all.
If able, think about doing something for somebody you need absolutely nothing from. Do you know,
my wife was in the Starbucks line today and some person was backing up on her.
and almost hit my wife and came out the window and apologized and then paid for my wife's order,
which by the way came to $28.
Doing something for somebody you need absolutely nothing from.
That's a good idea.
Pay for the person behind you if you're online.
Little something.
You see an elderly couple in the supermarket in front of you.
that, you know, want to put a smile on their face,
just walk over and put your credit card on the thing and just walk.
Give a wink to the cashier.
Don't say a word.
Boom.
Little things.
If able, do something for someone,
you need absolutely nothing from.
I still can't figure out where I heard that line from.
It was like in the 70s.
tidbits. It's that point where we just have a bunch of things printed out and we'll start.
U.S. states with the highest state income tax. California 13.3. Hawaii 11. New York 10.9. New Jersey,
10.75. Oregon 10. Oregon 10. Minnesota 9.8.75. Wisconsin 7.65.m. Maine 7.15. California. 13.3.
they hate you there
they hate you
on top of that
go look at the gas tax in
California
they hate you there
they use
the fact that California
is a beautiful state
with great weather
coastline up and down
beautiful
national parks
redwoods up north
what are you got
Yosemite
San Diego. And what do they do?
They screw you. Because they hate you.
Gavin Newsom hates you.
In California. Up next, tidbits.
The rest of the show, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect.
Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast.
might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Investers Edge with Gary Culper.
All right.
Welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Tidbits, 98% of Warren Buffett's current net worth came after he turned 65.
I just turned 65.
Hmm.
We're unable to track $6.2 billion sent to Ukraine.
California, unable to track $24 billion spent to combat homelessness.
Pentagon, unable to track $2.3 trillion of military spending.
U.S. Treasury, unable to track $5 trillion of pandemic spending.
Just letting you know.
Just letting you know, March 7th of 23.
I'm not going to mention who.
I believe NVIDIA was $300.
NVIDIA will be $100 stock in less than a year.
What is it, up to 2000?
Just letting you know what somebody put out.
apartheid, Israel, accused of apartheid.
There are 400 mosques in Israel, 83 are located in Jerusalem.
The number of mosques in Israel increased fivefold since 1988, where they're only 80.
Apartheid.
Howard Marks, a genius on the market.
We're skipping around.
When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23 times PE, your 10-year annualized return has always fallen between minus 2 and 2%.
We're 25 right now.
We'll see.
Central banks are cutting rates as if there is a recession. Central banks have cut rates 312 times over the last 24 months. The fastest pay since 2010. Just letting you know. Open AI CEO Sam Altman was asked how a company with 13 billion in revenues can have commitments of $1.4 trillion. Instead of answering the question, Altman said to, Brad
Gersner and investor happy to find a buyer for your shares what me worry
comparisons 30 to 50 year mortgage on a 30 year mortgage of the monthly payment
2398 on a 50 year 2106 you save 292 dollars a month loan cost when all
said and done at 400,000 bucks PayPal just letting you know
they are saying spending has decelerated in the U.S.
Just letting you know.
Norway's wealth tax, expected to raise $146 million, led to a $448 million net loss as $54 billion in wealth left the country.
Hey, let's do a wealth tax.
World's reliance on China for rare earth metals.
Brazil gets 97% of its rare earths from China, followed by Turkey, Germany, and UK at 9390s.
The U.S. imports 78% of all theirs.
Technology bonds are getting hit hard.
Oracle's $3.5 billion of 30-year debt issued in September has created 8%.
Meet the 2025 United Nations Human Rights Council.
Cuba, Qatar, China, Sudan, Algeria,
Bolivia, Kuwait, Burundi, Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of Congo.
What's our motto here?
The UN sucks.
General Motors, accumulated losses totaling approximately $10 billion over the years from its cruise robot taxi division.
Bye-bye.
The World Bank has announced they misplaced a staggering $41 billion in climate change funds.
You think anybody's going to jail?
No, they're all living in villas on Lake Como.
Seriously.
Nobody gives a crap about anything.
41 billion World Bank, climate change funds.
What did we tell you about climate change?
It's a freaking scam.
It's a hoax.
It's a lie.
It's all about money.
They had to come up with something to scare the living crap out of people,
so morons like that Greta turns the Venice canals green and Al Gore's worth how much?
200, 300 million while in 1982 told us Florida be underwater?
Ask clown.
Last month, the Taliban banned women from speaking in public.
This month, they will be invited to attend the UN climate conference.
the UN what's my motto the UN sucks over the past 10 years the US government tax revenue has increased 60%
our money has increased 60% to them their spending is increased 95% who pays for tariffs studies
consistently found that 80% of the China tariff costs during Trump 1.0 were born by US entities
from the administration they told us micron is going to put 200 billion into whatever whatever whatever
Micron's market cap is 121 billion and last year it generated 386 million in cash flow
what did we tell you about all the promises to the president they're blowing smoke
they know he's going to be gone in three years god bless the president coming out and saying
We have 20 trillion in commitments.
20 trillion.
No, they don't.
You know what a commitment is?
Something that's going to get done?
There's no way.
Unfortunately.
Apple, do you know Apple has bought back $700 billion in stock over the past 10 years,
which is greater than the market cap of 488 companies in the S&B 500?
That's amazing.
and of course leads to higher earnings.
And I think that's about it.
Those are some good tidbits, huh?
Controversial, but good.
Anyway, have a great evening.
Drive carefully.
If able, think about doing something for somebody
you need absolutely nothing from.
Until tomorrow, make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better. You will feel better.
I promise they will be well.
I'm going to do more tidbits tomorrow.
Peace out all.
Good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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