Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Broadening Out [07.02.2025]

Episode Date: July 2, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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at all tastes like. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.

Happy that you are listening. It is the second Wednesday, July, 2025. And as always, we have serious talk on everything that affects you. We're going to do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the big beautiful bill, and all other noise emanating from Washington, D.C. That matters to you. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post it on a Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should.

And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. Ladies and gentlemen, we got lots to cover today. but I'm going to make some specific points piggybacking what I said about the markets yesterday. And that is big changes are afoot in the markets. Areas that were dead, comatose, toast, woke up yesterday with a fervor. and when we say that to you, we're not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover. We are letting you know that when things wake up and we start to say to you, turn the corner,

turned up the right side, volume heavy, it's meaningful. So we'll cover that. And also, a little surprise for me. Very rough day for the NASDAQ in the Semmel. yesterday and I'm thinking well you have a little changing of the guard here and we'll probably get a little more weakness

in the tech and stuff. Nope. The semiconductors were stars of the show today also but I hope you are listening. The title of today's show is broadening out. The market

is broadening out. The market is touching other bases. By the way, it's topping certain areas, we'll get to that in a bit. Areas we've told you that we're topping, worsened, but the good areas of the market

are gooder. And we don't rationalize why we can sit here and say, oh, the tax bill could be. We don't know what the reasons are. We could say that a lot of foreign countries are lowering interest rates and we expect J. Powell to do the same, very soon and that's a little bit noisy today. We'll explain a few minutes. We don't rationalize.

So let's go back to yesterday. We simply told you home builders, housing stocks, the construction of the housing, building construction, the transports, that would be rails, truckers how about machinery the caterpillars and dears we even mentioned Ford and GM

we mentioned retail I believe we even mentioned the big biotech it was slow at first today but as I speak and we're in the 3 o'clock hour and we're just talking

percentages here. We're not talking about craziness where we've seen some stocks called 50% in a day that have no sales. The transports as I speak up another 1.1% today. 190 points as I speak to 16,000. 1.2%. The home builders up about 1.2%. The building construction. And you're could go look, I believe I gave you symbols yesterday, BLD and BLDR. Autos, well, Ford's up another 3% and change. GMs up 1%. Auto dealers. Auto Nation up 8. Lithium Motors up 8. Caterpillar up 7, deer up 8.

And the semiconductors, which are economically sensitive up 103 points today. And I was worried about them yesterday. And Viti, I was worried about, up 350 today. KLA 10Core opened down 15, up 21 as we speak. It is a $900 stock, just so you know. Broadcom up five after a rough day yesterday. The SMH up about 1.7% today. I've got something to add, though.

Steel. Go look at S.L. LX. Metals and mining, go look at X-M-E. They lit up today like a pinball machine. And for the record, they were comatose. They're playing catch-up now. Simple as that. To what extent we don't know, how far they go, don't know. They really don't have earnings, power, and leverage, but you never know. And we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Right now it is 306 p.m. The Dow is down 17 today. We'll explain why in a second. The S&P, though, is up 25. Remember, the Dow was up 400 yesterday and the S&P was down. Technology. The NASDAQ up. 171, the NASDAQ 100 up 149 as we speak. The socks up 102, transports 196, advanced declines good, broadening out. Another good day for banks. We mentioned regional banks yesterday, didn't we? The KRE, which is the regional banks ETF, up 1.6% today. And we're not just giving you numbers. We're letting you know, technically.

patterns. All these areas have turned the corner. They've broken above a range. For instance, yesterday, the KRE moved above 60 where it couldn't get above for a while. It's already 60-240, not a gargantuan move. Four percent. But it's meaningful because of the move, along with everything else. Oil's having a good day today. Oil prices are up, but I'm not so biggy on the oils at this juncture. But they're even having a good day off of oil prices up big today. Also of note is the yields are up too.

The small in midcaps, what did we tell you? Well, the Russell 2000 yesterday edged above. range. It's up another one in change today percent. The midcaps yesterday edged above range, up of three quarters of percent today. But most importantly, the weight of the evidence, as we build this out, as we scan, 1,500 stocks a night, 200 sectors, there were a ton I didn't even have to think about. Now I have to think about them. And now I have to think about them. And mention them to you. Go do some homework on them. Go check out the patterns. Go see where you can draw lines as they break above those lines. All economic sensitive, economically sensitive,

tied to the economy. United Rentals, we mentioned that up another 11 today, for instance. So we just wanted to start you with that and let me repeat. We don't know how. We don't know how long it lasts, how far it goes. We just know yesterday it was like taking a key and putting into the ignition and turning. For these areas,

simple as that. The broadening out of the market is at hand. Will it die tomorrow? It could. Doubt it. Highly doubt it. Because when you get all these

moves at the same time, it is usually meaningful. But anything possibly is they, because we have very, the most news-driven environment and let me go right into that for a second. You know, Tom Massey is he is against that big, beautiful bill.

He has actually come out and said they have enough in the house to knock the builder smithereens. We'll talk about that up next. I'm Mr. One of the Investors' Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals

to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says,

What if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't.

So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm, resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat or spend hours in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic

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You're listening to... Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbonne. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So as I mentioned a second ago, Tom Massey, who is against what they're called the Big Beautiful Bill,

he has come out today and said that they have enough no votes in the House to put down the big beautiful bill of massive spending and tax cuts. We'll see how that plays out. is there a cause and effect with the markets? If we had our back to the wall and we asked, what's the reason here? Well, you have all these countries lowering their rates, and I believe Jay Powell is next. Along, I think, with that bill, tax cuts are always good. And believe it or not, in the short run, big debt and deficits is actually pretty good for the markets. And by the way, we don't talk too much about money supply, but the money supply is skyrocketing, and you can go read up about that.

But I want to do some repetition here so you know where I'm coming from. You know when we do the 100 stock example? Well, let's do it the other way. Imagine there's 100 stocks in the market and 30 of them are doing really well and 70 of them are not. 70 of them are in down trends, but those 70 all of a sudden stop going down, and they flatten out. And they turn up, not in bull markets, but they are counter trending. So they go up, let's say a few percent, and then stop. They make a right turn and spend some time at those higher levels.

and then rally above that level. And then they spend some time at that level. And then they rally above that level. That's what's going on with the rest of the market now. While we've had these good moves in the big banks like Goldman Sachs or Netflix and the like, all these other areas have been dormant, sleeping. And we made a point yesterday to let you know, they woke up.

And typically, on a day they wake up like that, there's more. And you don't know if it's going to be the next day or how long, but today they opened up kind of soft. They're now rampant. And again, we're talking 1%, 1.5%, but they're in. important one in one and a half percent because they're breaking above ranges, definable areas of resistance being overcome by these areas. And when you have more and more, it tells you about the market.

So if you had 30 stocks working in 70 not, you now have 70 working in 30 not. Guess what? helps the market overall. That's your story right now. And even ignoring this messy thing, this guy came out, and we're not giving an opinion on it today, no opinions today,

because I wouldn't be too nice. He came out and stated, they have enough votes to put down the bill. And one would think that wouldn't be friendly. The market, it wouldn't be too friendly, but so far the market couldn't give a crap. And frankly, throughout the last couple of hours,

the market's bettered. I have my screens in hand here while I'm in London. And by the way, it's 8.40 p.m. right now in London. And they're just ticking up the caterpillars and the dears,

the Union Pacifics, and the FedEx. and the Linar's and Pulte homes and the auto dealers and Ford and GM. And some of these companies do not have Caterpillars earning stink. Revenue stink. But the market's buying it up right now, betting on something going forward. And we'll keep telling you about it. So let's repeat, July 1st, a Tuesday.

We came on to this show and told you things are changing. A bunch of areas in the market have come out of their coma. The best news on what we said yesterday is we were worried it would affect the other areas. They didn't affect them today. The semiconductors up 100, the NASDAQ up. That's all good news. Goldman Sachs up another age. JP Morgan's still on the move.

And let me read some numbers to you. 2824 up, 1180 down on the New York, 2699 up, 1313 down on the NASDAQ, the advanced declines. Better. What else do I got for you? Strong day for the Bitcoin. Been range bound, but tracing out some bullish range bound here. just letting you know we'll let you know if it breaks out again

we think odds favor that will happen not 100% odds favor also want to mention I get back to the semis we have some new highs Taiwan semiconductor hit a new yearly high today

recently Broadcom did but that is pulled back Nvidia hit a new yearly high yesterday but pulled back a little bit yesterday Pulled back yesterday, but rallying back up today. I only have a few complaints. And it's just about areas we want you to avoid. One of the big areas we have told you to avoid for a very long time.

That United Health Area, that is your managed care, your health maintenance organizations, overnight, cente, symbol CNC, announced they can't give earnings anymore at this junk. something to that effect. It's down 35% today. $34 bucks down 22 and change. What did that do to the rest? Elevents down 41 to 354. Cigna down 10 to 324. Molina Health down $64 to $241 in United Health. after actually having a good day yesterday, back down 16 today, which by the way is about 100, Dow points, and the Dow is only down 20. So we want you to avoid these managed cares like the plague.

And we've been telling you that for a while, but there's another area too. And it kind of sort of is like a brother-sister of the managed care, and that's insurance. Insurance stocks are getting hit. We'll cover that next. as well as a couple other areas. This is the one only investor's edge.

It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at.

The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength.

For delicious meals, you could go out to eat, or spend hours in the day. the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my

life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And what once again to Investors Edge. So insurance stocks are getting hit also. And we'd avoid most of them. We'd also avoid a lot of Chinese stocks. Still, in very bad, Alibaba and Baidut, the two of the biggest names. Not very good. Waste management stocks, totally breaking down.

R-S-G, W-C-N-W-M. I'd be careful about the hospitals also now. And some other medicals too. When I see one and two and three and four and five, I worry. And by the way, between Travelers in the Dow and United Health in the Dow, 25, 150, 162 Dow points to the negative. And the Dow is only down 22. Why? Goldman up eight, Caterpillar up seven.

Amgen up six. Remember what we said about big biotech yesterday? That woke up. Oh, and by the way, we also told you Apple was waking up. That's up about 2% today. Apple looks like it's turned the corner here. And it has been brutally ugly. and on a relative basis, doubly, brutally, ugly.

But that's turned up also right now. Keep in mind, I'm not so sure it's going too far. We'll see. We'll see. Gold, better, back above the 50-day, but just in multi-week range bound. The same for the gold miners. but that advance declines, the up downs, the broadening out, usually is sticky. If that changes, we will let you know. Again, there's Tom Massey that is outstating they have the votes to knock down that bill that I think the market's been betting on.

We'll see how to play it's out. The president in the news said he's cut a trade deal with Vietnam. I am going to be the pleasant Gary today. I am not going to be opinionated on the news. I'm just going to report it because if I was going to be opinionated, I'd be overly opinionated, Gary. Gary. So in the news, the president announced a deal with Vietnam. He says that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% tariff on any and all goods sent into our territory and a 40% tariff on any

trans shipping. He says Vietnam is paying for the tariff on things coming in here. I will let that sit and not be opinionated on it. Also, William Pulte is the head of the federal housing, whatever you want to call it, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He is asking Congress to investigate Jay Powell for political bias. and deceptive testimony. He supposedly made, and I'm just repeating this, factually inaccurate statements to the committee regarding the Fed's plush private dining room and elevator skylights,

water features in roof terrace, and that is typical of mismanagement and don't bother me attitude that Jay Powell is always shown. Chairman Powell needs to be investigated by Congress immediately, and they're looking to quote unquote remove him for, pause. I repeat, I'm going to give no opinion on this. This is opinion-free Gary today. I believe by me not giving any opinion on that, it tells you what I think. You know that scumbag murdering son of a bee? What's his name, Brian Coburger, who has been accused of murdering for college students, three women, one man.

In Idaho or Iowa, one of those places. Well, after months of preliminaries, he is pleading guilty to murder, and that way he gets out of the death penalty. I am bringing this up because my sons are now of age, they're adults now, but my goddaughters, one of them is going to go into college soon. and I just think about these things and since we have a radio show and I'm thinking to myself the prosecutors are letting him plea

so he does not get death row why would you let him plea when you have him dead to rights? They have everything on him somebody's got to answer that question and then of course the other part shouldn't the fathers

of the victims be able to have 30 minutes in a closed room, locked doors, bats in hand with this guy from murdering their children? Is that being mean? I got to tell you, if it was my daughter that was murdered or my son, I believe one of them was a male. And I'm not a violent person. I have to bring this up. I'm bringing this up because it's in the news. it does not matter to the markets, to your wallet, but we believe covering things that we think should or could be covered. I don't understand the prosecution.

Speaking of that, P. Diddy, is that his name or whatever? He was found guilty of the prostitution charges, but not of the trafficking charges. It seems like he's only going to get months in jail, not years, but he's already been in jail for a year. so he'll probably get time served. But he's a scumb bag. He's a dirt bag. And let's hope the whole musical

whatever community just shuns him drowns his ass out. There's a video of him beating the crap out of his girlfriend in the middle of the lobby. Not to mention all the other crap. Why do I think he's going to be

accepted over time again? that was in the news today that has absolutely nothing to do with you and your money your questions do you know what a big question I get from a lot of you

it's called the Buffett indicator Warren Buffett has this indicator about the price of the market whether it's cheaper expensive and I guess his indicator is at record record record big record highs

meaning very very very very expensive and always when it gets in these, well, it's past all the worst levels, the market always gets in trouble. Here's my answer to that. We'll let the market decide. Right now the market's just broadening out and I gather it's going to go higher. Not necessarily everything, but overall, when that changes, we'll let you know and you know who's the best. at recognizing market tops and the turning down of markets. I'm raising my hand. We'll let you know.

But right now, we're just fine. And as we've said to you, Big Banks' New Yearly Highs, Semiconductor's New Yearly Highs, we've never seen a bare market when that occurs. You got that? We've never seen a bare market when that occurs. occurs. So that would have to change. The advanced declines would have to change.

You know how we are able to call tops in all the markets in the past. Indices would hold up while we get two to three to one negative days as things worsen. We're getting the opposite right now. Up next. More on this, that, and the other thing or whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says,

What if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I smile.

Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat or spend hours in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken Parmesan bowl is delicious

with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50

already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guester's edge. with Gary Culper. And walk once again to Investor's Edge. In bad news, my Mets are on the skids. Very unhappy right now.

They got to come out of it. It's normal during a long season to have a bad moment and whatever, but it's not getting better. In bad news, in my sports, the Knicks have hired Mike Brown. as the new coach. I'm sorry. Tibadoe, who they fired,

is Filet Mignon. Mike Brown is spam. But we'll wish him well. He will now be running my team, and hopefully he does good. That is my sports for today. We're in London, England. Let me give you the lay of the land,

so you know. They hate the guy running the U.K. Starmer. They can't stand them. The latest, have he heard this before, by the way, he went back on, he was posted because of deficits cut down on welfare, and now he was pressured not to. So they're all getting pissed off at him here.

And if you think the media is tough, In the U.S., on certain people, you should see what goes on here. Members of Parliament, have you ever seen them back and forth arguing? And also the other part, the big problem here, their National Health Service. Do you know the big discussion right now is to make sure people that need certain surgeries have it within 16 weeks Last I look That's almost four months

You'd have to wait for surgeries And that's on the low end By the way, it's completely Government-run healthcare And we're not here to put it down Put them down But it's government-run health care And I'm not telling you anything

They wouldn't tell you Because it's in the news On a daily basis I love it here I think it's a magnificent city I think all of the UK I've been north to Maine Manchester all the way down south.

I've been west. I've been east. I've been in the little towns. Love it here. And London, I can't get enough. I just love it. I think it's just a great place, majestic. People are great. I can visit all the sites time and time again.

And may I state for the record, there's a lot of tourism here. A lot of people here I asked away and they said business is good business is booming so just letting you know I'll be at Wimbledon tomorrow can't wait

it's going to be good weather and when we get back we'll give you the lay of the land but very good to see not a fan of the BBC they're totally anti-Semitic do not like Israel but welcome to the world

yay in other news I'm going to pass on the other news we'll leave it at that back on the markets it's going to close in about 20 minutes the Dow's still down 30 but in the Dow

Goldman is up 9 in the Dow Caterpillar up 7 Amgen up 6 Apple up 4 and Viti up 360 Nike Up 3 earnings were down

86% But I guess they have something going on With Amazon The market likes But on the other end Travelers down 9 and a half

And United Health Down 18 With the implosion And may I be clear Implosion Of the managed Care Health Maintenance

Organization industry and the stocks, that I gather they're going to have to look themselves over on, I guess, pricing, claims, and all that. And an interest, well, not interesting, but this kind of started or really intensified with that murder of that stupid prick Luigi who's getting marriage offers or offers. from women and got bazillion dollars in a go-fund me

even though he shot somebody in the back dead like the wimping coward that he is boy to some weird people out there kids but back on point I'd be as far as way from these stocks as possible

as far away as possible because we're When you have somebody like Centine come out and say, oh, we're just not going to give out these. It almost said like they don't know, have no control. And last I look of import is you need to know your business and your margins. And right now, wow, 35% drop.

This is not a small company. Taking down others today. And taking, I think, insurance also, little, cousin sector we'll let you know if anything changes there we mentioned Bitcoin we'll just mention it again I think there's a shot here it's going to make another move

it's been range bound since six months ago back near the highs again held the 50 day to the penny recently we'll let you know tomorrow and Friday best of Gary believe it or not we're going to do the bare market shows just in case you need to remember even though we're in a better market

that all said you have a great evening drive carefully and when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you'll feel better I promise stay well be well thanks for joining peace out we'll be back live on Monday good night this has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum

on BizTalk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Hi, this is Danielle Robe, the host of Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club, a podcast by Hello Sunshine and IHeart Podcasts. I'm partnering with Simple Mills, and I've just found my new go-to reading snack, Simple Mills' almond flour crackers.

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