Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Changing Of The Guard?

Episode Date: July 6, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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eBay, things people love. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's July 5th.

it's 2022. Thanks for being with us today. Hope you're having a good day. Hope you had a, well, you know, me saying hope you had a good July 4th. I don't even want to say it after what happened in Highland Park. A place I have been to on quite the occasion outside of Chicago. You ask yourself questions, you try to come up with answers, and what do you say about, what was he, 22 years old? Hey, I'm going to wake up and shoot people, murder them, innocent people.

So I'd like to say, hope you had a happy July 4th. I actually wish you, hope you did, but everybody say a little something for those people that were affected. And we'll leave it at that. Actually, we won't leave it at that, but you know what we mean. Let's segue. First off, I'm back in the States. I had a magnificent time. I promised myself years ago that as the days wind down in life,

I am going to make sure that I see the world while I work. As I tell you, I work while I'm there. I do the radio show while I'm there. I did TV while I was in Europe. And I live by the rule. I really do live by the rule that once a day is gone, you never can get it back. So you better treat it like it matters. And really, that's how I go about things.

I really do. I hope that makes some sense to you. And of course, it's all about capability and what you're able, both physically and financially. But that's why I always say work your tail off, be the best you can be at anything you can do. There's really not a lot of excuses for most people anymore. As I have said when I was a child in my teen years, even when I started in work. Well, when I was a kid, I had the Encyclopedia Britannica, a year old.

And if you would go through it and read about, if you'd go to the section that said brain surgery, there was a paragraph. Now you can put up brain surgery and go to a hundred different sites about it, or cancer, or how to speak Spanish. or any other, just anything. There's also the ability to start businesses. There are people making millions of dollars with eBay stores, Amazon stores, YouTube channels, podcasts. It's really unlimited these. TikTok, influencers, and there's some weird stuff out there making zillions. But to get back to my point, I just really don't believe.

leave as much as in use right now to be great at something. It's so, it's at the fingertips now. So we wish each and every one of you the best, enjoy the life to its fullest. And I just bring that up because my week, I got to London on last Saturday, took a nap, went to see the Rolling Stone Saturday night, watch a people collapse of the, drunkenness right at my feet. Went to see the Eagle Sunday night. Watch people beat the hell out of each other. I mean, just drunken whatever.

And I mean, the women were beating the hell out of each other more than the men. They were taken away. They missed the concert. Went to Montenegro in Croatia for five days. And just, wow. Go look up K-O-T-O-R and go look up Kotar Bay and look up Montenegro and look up Dubrave. in the Croatia, we went there too. Wow. I finished up at Wimbledon for two days. That was my little trip. I earned it. I worked my tail off. Earned it. Work your tail off. Become great.

My best advice. It's the same advice I gave my kids. Never any excuse of not knowing things these days. You can Google anything. Anything. Now, ladies and gentlemen, the rest of the show is going to be for the market. And as you know, we've been to bear market for a very long time. Recently, we told you we thought the commodity complex topped inflation topped, inflation peaked. We said that before anybody else. As usual, we were on top of things. We think that the reason why is because recession. But on the outcome of this, we always have a wonder, well, if all these things are changing, does it mean something for something? else. In other words, well, we had interest rates skyrocket. It hurt housing and housing-related

stocks. If oil prices is flying, oh, it's got to affect the airlines and the cruise lines and travel and drivers and Uber people and everything. What happens if the opposite happens? Oh, and by the way, destroyed growth stocks and technology stocks just killed them. Well, what if opposite happens. Well, what have we been saying to you? Well, we're completely focused and looking for things. And up until today, I really couldn't come up with anything except a few areas that were bullish and really nothing that excites us. Drug stocks, managed care stocks, things like that. Defensive issues. What we're always looking for is what we're always looking for is what we say to you is changes. Did anything change? And we try to extrapolate those changes. What would be the

cause? Of course, when earnings come out, that changes things. But this is a week where hardly anybody's reporting earnings. Well, we're going to give you out the final numbers in a couple of minutes. We're going to want you to pay attention to one number. Well, I take that back. One number to the upside. Pay attention to all the numbers to the downside. And then we will give you out a cause and effect. Because we've been telling you since last year. Really starting in February of 21, just brutal bare market in growth and tech and software and internet.

And cybersecurity and, I mean, any number of things. And recently they kind of stopped going down. What we mean by that is, well, the market keeps going down, but they're still sitting at their lows and not breaking their lows. And some things have moved off their lows in that area. Well, we're going to be talking about them today when we do our webcast tonight. And just remember, we love leadership in the market, but we've also taught ourselves what we call the potential turn. Remember when oil emerged the first day of this year? We said it was emerging, the turn.

When oil topped, we said, we think it's topping, the turn down. So always look, and we always use the word potential because we learned a long time ago, nothing's 100%. And this crazy market with so many people talking, so many people yapping, so many things going on like a war with Ukraine. well that's Russia invading Ukraine whatever emanates out of DC which is sheer insanity and the like COVID vaccine I mean I can go through a litany of things

but when all is said and done all we want to do is look at photo albums for familiar faces that's all we want to do and we want to find familiar faces of things topping, of things bottoming, and then the cause and effect, as we said, well, if oil prices plunge isn't that good for? So up next, full market wrap, movers of the day, a bunch of thoughts today, I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply Steamer's are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Okay. This is one of those days where I need two hours,

but we'll do it in the time allotted. So, first off, listen up. The market wrap is brought to you by Investment Dash models. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas that demand you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. The Dow today was down 741 points and finished down 129 points.

You got that? We walked into a gap today on the Dow and it was miserable until later in the day. and we'll explain that in a second. NASDAQ was never really down a lot today. While the Dow was down 740 points, while you think the NASDAQ would be down, what, 300, 350? At the lows today, the NASDAQ was down about 210. But throughout the day the NASDAQ higher beta names.

You know those names that have been crushed, murdered, mutilated, destroyed, 50, 60, 70, 80 percent. They were all green early. And we're always looking for, hmm, these little outliers, sometimes on a daily basis, weekly basis, but of course really the most on a monthly basis. The big picture. But here's what else was going on today.

And then we'll circle back. About three weeks ago, I'm going to give you the date. June 9th, and even more on June 10th. We had simply stated, and all we really stated, was that some oil's names, individual names, were starting to break down. But no biggie.

At the same time, lumber was already topped badly. A cotton topped badly. in mid-May. Corn topped in mid-May. Soybeans topped early June. As we said, lumber, way before that. And then came the June 10th for the OIH, which is oil services. We thought that had topped. It was just oil services. We thought the explorers and the big names were just starting to pull back and then it worsened the next day, the Monday, the 13th. And we said to you, we think the inflation trade has peaked for now. And we use the words for now, P-E-A-K.

In the weeks before that, steel stocks topped out, a lot of the mining iron ore stocks topped out. So we were comfortable in saying, you know, we think the commodity trade is over. And unbeknownst to us, they've just, I'm careful with my words, you know that. They kind of crashed them. They kind of crashed them. The USO, it's just an exchange traded fund for the spot price. It's gone from, is down 20% in one, two.

23, 45, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, trading days. 20%. The stocks, the OIH in that same time, has gone from 317 to 214, 28%. The XOP, which is the Explores, 33%. They just crushed these things. to the point where, you know, I have this main screen in front of me with just the leadership groups, they came off. My front screen last week. What else?

The shippers. You remember we told you the shippers were one of the ports in the storm, but they topped down on the eighth. And we acknowledge that to you. The shippers of everything. And the Brazil, why? because Brazil's very commodity-based. And deer and Caterpillar. Why?

Because they deal with all this stuff. And Agco, AGCO. And then the 10-year yield. Yields. And we do the 10-year more than anything. And the 10-year yield, which we told you, had put in a near-turn top, has gone from 3.48 to 2.8.

Wow. Which made us tell you very simply we would avoid any new commitments to these areas is they have topped. The inflation trade is topped. And of course, for the first couple of weeks, everybody's still talking inflation while we're saying it's over. For now. Down the road, who knows?

But we say for now, that's now, baby. And usually it's for a while. And we did not know it, but they've just crushed it. Absolutely crushed it. unbelievably crushed it. Light crude for December. Delivery. Closed today at 8870. It's like 120. So first off, here's the good news. Here's the good news. You're $5 at the pump. It's going to be $4 or less very soon. It's going to come down markedly. Now, obviously, it comes down a little bit slower because they got to get rid of the more expensive. That's what they paid for the expensive.

But once that's gone, four bucks, maybe even less. And we're not talking California or Hawaii where you've got to send it there. California is just a communist nation. Now, of course, if prices start backing up again, we'll advise. But if it just stays right here, we're four and less. No, not kidding. And you'll also see supermarket prices. They're going to come down finally.

I'm letting you know this. We're the ones who warned you beforehand of the upside. We started on this one three weeks ago before anybody else. We're pretty darn good at this. Up next, what's the outcome of all this? We'll try to put the pieces of the puzzle to. That's up next. On this, the one and only investors' edge.

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Success starts with your drive, an American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU. APU. APUS.edu. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Would it be mean for me to say this prick in Highland Park that murdered these people and they're starting to show, well, they started yesterday, the people that died were murdered.

Would it be mean for me to say, can't we just put this guy in a room and, you know, Put some of those nasty, you ever see those big gigantic pigs that'll eat anything in that same room? Would that be mean? Would that make me violent? Or how about just letting them out in the yard? Just let him out in the yard. Would that be mean?

Or, or, you know, my buddy John Layfield, J.B. of WWE fame has one of the greatest finishing maneuvers of all time. It was called the clothesline from hell. I don't think I've ever seen a Stan Hanson had one. I think my buddy John equivalent or better. How about a couple of clotheslines from hell? I'll hold them up on the second one. Would that be mean what these families are going through today?

the trauma these kids are going through that were at the parade this stupid 22 year old scumbag I don't think I'm being too mean okay we must segue so first and foremost stay away from everything that was working that topped out in the last four to eight weeks that's number one by the way gold's included in this and what's going on you know our dollar verse versus currencies, just skyrocketing. Skyrocketing. The euro is almost, I guess, close to parity with the dollar. The FXE, which is the dollar euro, was at 160 in 08, it's 94 today.

The FXB, the pound, was at 211. It's now 114. That's against our... And why would that be? if things are so bad, why is our currency so strong? Well, because they're terrible over there. They're much worse than us. Not the people, the governments.

They're central banks. They're insane. Even worse than power, which is very tough to come by. So what is the outcome if all these commodities keep going down or stay down? And they can bounce from here, which would be normal. But what if we put in that major top, which there's a pretty, damn good chance. Well, again, as we said, just don't own them. That's number one. But what is the outcome? Well, considering in November, when they bottomed out, everything got trashed, is it possible

that everything that got trashed can really start to rally in a very big way? Well, let's start with number one. Why are they crashing these things? Well, we think we're in recession, but that's just the statistic. And all that means is GDP is lower year over year for the quarter. Two quarters in a row. We had it last quarter. We have it this quarter. Everybody's come around to agree what we told you two months ago. Isn't that how that, interesting how that works? We're in front of all this. Well, let me tell you what else. Because today, early on, we just put out the note, hey, we're just letting you know, all these bombed out growth names that have gone through 50, 60, 70, 80% drops, maybe they can have a counter trend rally.

And due to the fact, many of them that are down, way down, stop going down over the last two months and just testing the lows and retesting the lows. What if they can get going? In other words, they all topped at the same time. What if they all start putting in bottoms? And what is a bottom? No snickering, please. It just means price found the level on the downside and held it for quite a while, a decent amount of time, moved off of that and broke above the first higher low. and when it pulled back, it never pulled back to the low

and then it goes another higher low. In other words, the stair steps. We may be starting to see that here in real time today. So mark down July 5th that there is an opportunity, the potential that since everything that caused the downside

well maybe it can now cause the upside when not everything stuff heads the other way that said earnings in earnest start next Thursday and Friday on an individual basis we don't know which name

warns and gets blown up we're just letting you know on the whole when we do our webcast tonight, we are going to be scanning all these bottom feeders. We want you to take a look at the IGV, which is the software exchange traded fund, and we want you to notice for a good now two months. It hit an area support and never broke below. That's an important exchange traded fund we follow, and then we're going to go through all the software names.

You catch in the drift now? Now, other things broke the lows, but are coming up quickly. Notice we are not saying we are big bullish, big bearish, well, on the commodity front, bear. What we're saying is there is now some potential and opportunity for a lot of these names to make a turn. Break above first area resistance. Some already have, and we will acknowledge them tonight. and we'll see what comes at us.

We will say this. If we go into a deep recession, a real deep one, these moves will have a shelf life. Even if we don't, a lot of these names are never getting back to the old highs. But I will tell you something, I'm going to give an example that went from 100 down to 20, can rally to 40 in bare markets and be up 100% from the lows, still be down 60% from the highs, which still defines yick. But we wouldn't mind trying to catch some of these 100%ters,

because I can tell you this, there's really no new merchandise out there. So we'll see. So the NASDAQ was up 194 today after being down 210. The semiconductors are still weak. We're only up 19 today. After a bad Friday, so it could have been worse. There was 855 new yearly lows today. Hardly any new yearly highs, that's not good.

But I could tell you that 855, I haven't looked yet, but I already kind of know. Some of these commodity names have gone coast to coast in 8 to 12 weeks. From new yearly highs to new yearly lows, that's how much damage that has been done in that area. Amazing. I'll tell you what we're happy about. Again, if nothing changes and price just stays. stays the same right here. And we said that to you last week,

that prices would be down. What we say to you, 30 to 50 cents. With today's drop, $4. Oil prices were smoked today. Like 8%. So for you drivers out there, good. Any of you that does shopping for food? Good.

The question is, what does this indicate? We can live with recessions. recessions are okay of course it's a depression if you lose your job but we've lived through recessions bad recessions not good long lasting recessions not good but just letting you know

potential change of complexion potential potential we'll go further than that up next this that and the other thing and whatever else this is the one on the investor's edge Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong.

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With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.

With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley where the echo does different voices. Hello! We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Just freaking heartbreaking. Stephen Strauss,

88 years old, still working as a financial advisor in downtown Chicago was shot dead by this prick. 88 year old. 88. 88. Lived a great life and shot dead by this scumbag. Waterboarding? How about that? Would that be okay?

Send them to Gitmo. Let him get some of that. God, I have to... It's so... How do loved ones process this? How do loved ones process this when it happens? All right, so full numbers. Dow was down 129 still pay no attention to it. It was down 700 and change.

700 and change. What brought it back up was this interest rates, just so you know the 10 years down at 2.8 now. So Gary, what if interest rates go back up? What if oil prices go back up? They can definitely bounce from here. they're oversold already. But man, once the die gets cast, we'll see.

My job tonight is to double the effort. I'm what I'm saying. Because we're dealing with nothing breaking out of range. It's names like, I'm not going to give a name just yet. But names that went from 400 down to 112, rally up to 120, make that 130, never pull back to 112, just make a right turn, and today up 10 to 140.

In other words, stair steps the other way. And breaking above the 50-day moving average, which defines a lot of things for us. And what we also liked about it today was a lot of them. we like seeing that too but we've yet to scan what wasn't up today as we said anything commodity based

interesting enough a lot of transport stocks was still down today even with oil plunging economically sensitive though they came back towards the edge and financials didn't have a great day

but they came back later in the day the semis the socks was finished up only 19 but was down i think let's see what the socks was down today at one time uh whoa 2386 was down about 70 no i take that back 90 yeah about 70 yeah about 70 look at me and my abacus so we're going to title today a real potential change of complexion. But it's not like, what was it, 2013, when the whole market broke out a range, everything. And we can say on this show,

huge breakout, buy the hell out of it. Or when Jay Powell announced in October of 19, in the midst of an economic expansion, though debt-laden, he says he's going to money print. And we said, just buy the hell out of the market. And it ran into February until COVID hit. It's much tougher when you're dealing with bottoming process, potential bottoming process. You know the words follow

through. I'm going to need to see that. But we do believe this inflation is down for the count. What I'm going to be nauseating about is somehow the wrong people are going to take credit for it. when the reason why this is happening is demand falling off a ledge. Number one. And number two, the market did its job. Not Jay Powell. He's still way behind. The market did its job.

The price of oil did its job. They do call it demand destruction. That had nothing to do with Powell or this administration. who, by the way, the administration is going to come out and say, You see, we told you, so oil prices will come down. They did that the last time we went down here and then went back up to 1.30 and they had to shut up again. But this one feels a little better. And by the way, this is all going on while Russia is still going on with Ukraine.

We will stay on top of this. This ain't easy. but we've nailed the whole bare market for you guys let's see if we can revert to something better what do they use the term green shoots yeah we'll see we're just happy for you as the consumer big drop in oil price is coming

big drop in food price is coming this is good news to buy a house 10 year just went from 3 5 to 2 8 though we don't feel there's many buyers out there this second. So maybe better second half. By the way, including today, NASDAQ's down 27.6 for the year. Russell 22.5, S&P 196, S&P 400, 194, Dow 14.8. What have we always told you? The Dow will always hold up better in a bare market

because of liquidity purposes. Anyway, enough said. You'll have a great evening drive carefully. I'm still jet lag. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. Be well, stay well, exercise, eat well. Drinking is overrated. Until tomorrow. Thanks for joining. We'll be on with Charles Payne at 2 p.m. tomorrow. Fox Business. Check it out. Bye-bye all. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.edu. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

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