Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - CHINA [05.14.2026]

Episode Date: May 14, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's Thursday. It is the 14th of May. 2006. Hope you're all having a good day. as always lots to discuss serious talk on everything that affects you we'll do the markets the economy your job your industry war tariffs china and all the important news of the day and if you do not get this radio show in your city we will post it at gary k.com We'll also post it on our X feed.

You can follow us on X. Just put my name in and you go there. We'll also post it on the YouTube channel of Biz TV. And of course, if you'd like to email me, just be nice. Do you know what I love most? I have received emails from soldiers in Afghanistan in the past. every continent, every country. I said, what day did I say?

Two days ago that I am going to Europe in late June. I am going for some pleasure, a little business. And it looks like I'm going to end up in Budapest for a couple of days. And somebody there emailed me and said they would love to, Let me know what to do and all that. I love that. Communication, baby. Love that.

Anyway, as we said, lots to cover. Presidents in China. I'm going to throw out some numbers to you today and all that crap. Let me start with the most important news of the day. By far. The most important news of the day. The Mets swept Detroit Tigers. They won three games in a row from Detroit.

They're hot. Well, they're 18 and 25. We'll take it. You know, this year, I actually thought that the Mets would be... 87 and 75. 85 and 77. And I was very disappointed with how they started, but they're starting to play some ball.

Mr. Soto is back. Fifth home run today. And they're just sometimes winning begets winning. Let's hope that would be the case. For me, that's important news. The other important news, we'll do markets another good day. And an important semiconductor is reporting after the close.

That would be applied materials, semiconductor equipment. But the big news is the presidents in China. I think he's only there for a couple of days. Let me, I was watching pundits the last couple of days. everybody was calling China the enemy not our competitor but our enemy and let's leave no doubt that

Xi has taken it more towards government-centric leave no doubt about that leave no doubt but there's also a capitalistic component there just with a lot more structure and also something that I have been actually complimenting for quite a while. And that is, they don't give a crap. Have you noticed that? While we yap away and complain and wine,

do you hear much out of them? You don't. You know what they've been doing since 2000? I think it's like 2013. The Belt and Road Initiative. And China has been going around the world for economic strategies and cooperation and partnerships. And don't get me wrong, they have had problems with debt, real estate troubles. and who knows when they report their economic numbers what's right, what's not. But we're just letting you know worldwide.

They have done what we haven't done. And that is some serious partnerships without penalization. As I told you, I'm in Athens, Greece, and I'm at the port, 50% China. and you can go look up the Belt and Road Initiative and see you can get these maps out of all the things they've done. And just so you know, we are not defending them. But I think we're too much talk.

Too much whining, too much complaining, too much of everybody's the enemy. Everybody's the enemy. And I hope that changes going forward. It's one of the things we do not like about the president. Everybody's the enemy. And some weird people are the friends, like Orban who ran Turkey. Seems he treats Putin and Xi better than others, so-called allies.

Anyway, we'll see how it plays out. we're going to hear about deals this that and this that and this that but not much is going to come of it it's just good that they got together and we'll take it at that next thing i want to bring up and this is big in the news and this has everything to do with your money as you know the corrupt miscreants in dc have taken us to 39 trillion of debt we're going to run 2.2 trillion this year even though this president said, oh, I'm going to do every, I'm going to get rid, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And he said the same thing back when he took over in 16. And what we have found out is he's as bad a politician as everybody else with our money.

Think about that. 2.2 trillion deficit this year. Our federal spending in 2000 was $1.8 trillion. Yet we're going to run a deficit at $2.2. Now I keep hearing, oh, it's all the Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. That's what the politicians say. Well, they are freaking liars. You take Biden, the worst president ever.

He raised the federal spending with his $1.8 trillion inflation reduction act that he admitted later that he lied, that it didn't do anything for inflation. By the way, inflation came down because J. Powell stopped printing. Yet this president is now wanting to take defense spending up a half trillion dollars. Snap of the finger. I want you to know a few things about this and how they're going to screw us even more. As you know, there's nobody louder, no louder voice than me on defending the country. But in the year 2000, our defense spending was 320 billion, and they're trying to tell us now they need $1.5 trillion a year.

And by the way, that will go up every year going forward. You think? 1.5? We don't get along with one. We're about a trillion this year. You don't think we defend the country well with one? So what this president and the defense people want to do is take us the 50 trillion even quicker than we were going. I don't think they're going to be able to get that done.

And I must tell you, it pisses me off because they just don't care about us and our tax dollars. It's just what can they spend on and go at it. Up next, we'll finish that. Do markets. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same. same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 8-58-4-2-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bond. capital management it's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this so uh you know they're using us they're

laughing at us as we continue higher they're either going to be dead or retired by the time things blow up. And, you know, I was on TV last week, and I brought it up. And somebody rightfully said, yeah, but everybody's been complaining about the debt forever. Well, if I can take out a credit card with a higher credit limit to pay from my last one, I can just keep going forever. Well, that's what they're doing. That's what they are doing.

We'll keep you informed. you know when we know there's trouble if the bond market fights back that's when we'll know we're in trouble the bond market will croak

and yields will skyrocket and then they won't know what hit them Cerberus what have we warned you about with IPOs be careful when they come out That's all we've been saying in the secondary market. So they brought out this Cerberus symbol CBRS.

Artificial intelligence chips and stuff. So hot deal. $185 deal. And you know what they opened it at, right? 386. I don't have all the financials on them, but they opened at 386. If you bought the open, it closed at 311. You catching my drift?

Just so you know. And this is a big one. By the way, it's Cerebris. I don't know how to pronounce. Cerebris. A.I. Chipmaker, $185. Be careful. A hundred billion dollar market cap.

I don't know what kind of sales they have. It's a 10-year-old company. I'm just looking at right here. Yeah, nice. So another AI. Revenue jumped 76% last year to 510 million. And they made money. 88 million bucks.

I can't wait to go through these numbers. but I gather they brought it out at a very high number. Anyway, bottom line is they opened it at 386. It's 311 right now, and we'll see what happens from here. Dow today, Cisco, as we told you yesterday, reported earnings, and there wasn't much there. Up 11, up 10, but they said some AI stuff. It did finish up $13.41.

today. It was as high, it was only up about 18. Very extended. God bless it. This is a 1990s unbelievable stock that has been, I guess, born again is the word? And everybody's doing this artificial intelligence thing. So that helped the Dow. Goldmo was up 13, helped the Dow. Caterpillar up 18. Helped the Dow. NVIDI up 9. Why was NVIDIA? nine because I sold it. Do you know since 24 I've had every real good moving in Nvidia except this one? I screwed this one and I bought it, got stopped out. I was banging my head against the wall today metaphorically. So that was up today. The reason why it turns out that the CEO went with the president of China.

And one of the things everybody's been looking at or waiting for is doing business with China. There was some restrictions on some of their chips, and they unrestricted the restrictions. And that juiced the stock today, NVIDIA. So the Dow was up 370, S&P 56, NASDAQ 232, NASDAQ 100, 213. Small and midcaps are actually up. But I must tell you, the advanced decline on the NASDAQ was better, but only 27 up 19 down. I was expected more. Advanced declines on the New York 2717.

New lows contracted on the NASDAQ, but still there was 138 new lows today. That'd be so weird. It was some revenge of the nerds today What have we been complaining about? Well, we've been saying to you all the consumer areas are Dead comatose or bearish. They bounced them today a little bit. Nothing spectacular.

They bounced them. Still mostly in downtrends, bare markets, but they bounced them today. Retail bounced. Actually, I'm looking around Copa. Anybody here at Coppa Airlines? I think they're Panama, right? That was up 20 bucks on their earnings.

But airlines as a whole, not great. And Norwegian finished down and carnival finished flat. So travel-related, blah. Medical's most bearish. Housing hardly bounced today. Barish. Consumer staples, except for tobacco, bearish. And I still don't understand how anybody.

puts a cigarette in their mouth. Number one, it stinks. And number two, I mean, gee, whiz. I told you the story, right? Some woman comes in a wheelchair into a 7-Eleven and has one of these oxygen tanks with, you know, going through her nose and she's coughing her brains out.

Give me two cartons of that. I've got cigarettes. People determined to kill themselves. It's amazing to watch. I don't get it. And that's a little bit of the story here, but advanced decline's not great, but good stuff today. The semiconductors and the NASDAQ remain stretched, extended, overbought. I don't know what other word to vertical.

I don't even know what other word to use. Anything I do here, I'm going to be scared. You know what list. because of just a normal just a normal pullback in the NASDAQ I mean could take it down 5, 7% and still look great. It's been quite interesting. Up next, what else is going on? We'll figure it out. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just honest. speed here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him and walk once again to Investors Edge uh silver's been acting better but certainly not in bullish mode rough day today uh gold is not as strong as silver and is bleh so not much going on there I did notice today I don't think it's a big deal

Palladium got hit today. Oil prices did finish up at the end of the day today. I got to tell you, if you would have told me weeks ago that oil today would be $98 for light sweet and $106 for, what was it, July delivery of Brent crude, I would have thought the Dow was at 42,000. It's at 50. Will it eventually?

I don't know. All I can tell you today was another good day in spite of. Oil stocks bounce, but no great shakes there. I must tell you, just based on that, call me quite surprised. And the reason is oil matters to everything, to everything, absolutely everything. Go buy tires in the next month or two. You're going to be paying more.

Go buy solar panels. You're going to be paying more. I can Google the words products made with petroleum. well it says here common products plastics ink paint shoe polish nylons roof shingles novelty candy

oh what cosmetics candles Vaseline bug killer ammonia tires asphalt crayons paper cups wax paper that's just a few that's just a few all those prices are going up

definition of inflation yet bond market, which has been hit a little, not as much as I would have thought. Not even close. Not even close. So we'll keep our eye on that. By the way, I got this whole thing here. You ready?

Air mattresses. Antihistamines. Oh, that's good to know. Artificial limbs, artificial turf. Asphalt, aspirin, backpacks, balloons, ballpoint pens, cameras, I won't do them all, car battery cases, coffee makers, cold cream, computer monitors, credit cards, dashboards, I'm just going a little bit through the alphabet, dice, dishwashing liquid, dog collars, drinking cups, eyeglasses, fishing boots, floor wax, footballs, golf bags, golf balls, hair coloring, just for men, heart valves, hearing aids, the iPad and the iPhone, laptops, lipstick, lubricants, luggage, motorcycle helmets, nail polish, nail polish, oil filters, paint brushes, paint, roll, panty hose, parachutes, propane, putty.

How about roller skate wheels? How about rubber cement, shampoo, shaving cream, shoe polish, shower curtains, soap dishes? There's the solar panels. Surfboards, telephones, tents, tennis rackets, toothbrushes, toothpaste, TV cabinets, umbrellas, upholstery, vaporizers. I just went through the alphabet. Yarn. Every one of those are going up in price. Besides what you got at the pump. I'm surprised yields are not 5% right now on the 10 year. You got the 30 year there. Let's hope the 10 year doesn't get there. Why? That'd be your mortgages, kids. and I can promise you the new central banker, Kevin Warsh, possibly will have to raise rates

and then get cursed out by the president. How did I put him in? So we just want to let you know in case you did not know or even think about it. It's not just the pump. And leave no doubt, when I'm in New York City, I'm taking Ubers and lifts, and every one of them I'm asking, how is that a firm? affected you and every one I'm saying big time. Direct consequence.

Same goes for any delivery people that pay for the stuff. We'll stay on top of it. And the messaging from this administration had better get better. Some of the things out of the yapper in the last week, I know what they meant, but the other party is going to cut clips of some of the things that were said. And that's not good news. And once we get Speaker of the House, Hakeem Jeffries, we're going to have to deal with another impeachment.

And everyone being subpoenaed onto Capitol Hill, which means the president is going to pardon everybody. His staff, his family, just like Joe Biden did. That's what it's come to. And that's what we're going to get. Yay. Moving on. The number one question I'm being asked,

how much longer can this go on? We're talking trajectory. I don't know. This trajectory is more accentuated than 99, not as far in the move, but in the trajectory. I've never seen it before. I've seen it in meme stocks, not the indices. I don't know.

Am I worried about it being in 99, 2000? You're damn straight, I am. And why? Because that's how markets work. Markets are this mechanism, and history needs to be studied, and history repeats itself. And when you get these climactic vertical moves, pretty much every time it leads to

what you're seeing in gold and silver right now. Not necessarily leading to an 80% drop like we saw in the year 2000. We're also hearing, oh, don't worry, the earnings are good. And back in 99, there weren't earnings. That's a lie. These people did not do their homework. You need to know that. I think I mentioned this yesterday.

It's important. There were great earnings back then. EMC, great earnings. Dell, Intel, Microsoft, America Online, SDL, Inc. A ton of great earnings. Cisco, and they still crashed. 80%. And I still remember somebody in Barron's.

I have no idea who it is to this day, said that was going to happen, and I'm on radio making fun of him. 80%. He nailed it. He called one of these grand super cycle ends and this, that, and the other thing. So as always, we'll be watching. In order to get in big trouble, you know what has to happen. Next, maybe we'll talk about that. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa. What has to happen?

Oh, it's easy. Indeasee need to break the 50-day move-in average. If that never happens, it's impossible to crash. That's all. And just because you break that 50-day moving average does not mean trouble lies ahead. You can go underneath what we just did during the war and we turned back up. So just letting you know, because the e-mails I get about people scared out of their wits, they're out there.

And I don't blame them. I do have to tell you that a lot of the news is not great. The debt and deficits are sickening, for starters. Job market is mediocre at best. And you know it's mediocre when you have an administration saying how great it is on 115,000 jobs. 250 used to be good. What else? Valuations.

Anybody ever read about the Buffett indicator on valuations? Go look it up. We're in the big trees. And Warren Buffett's company, and I know he stepped down, they have $400 billion in cash. They're basically telling you, we're not buying crap here. It's too expensive. And they're pretty smart on valuation. We watch that.

And there are other little things, how many ETFs there are, how many two and three times ETFs, how invested all the institutions are, and how one noted in. invested they are, as we have told you, they've been selling all this just to buy the narrow this. There's a lot of things, but nothing bad can happen unless the 50-day moving average gets taken out by the big indices. And I got Newsfea, the biggest problem we have right now is the NASDAQ closed at 26635, the 50. day moving averages 23-496, 3,100 and 40 points away. That's how quickly it's moved. And by the way, it just broke above on April 8th. That was the day the NASDA, the Dow gapped up, what was it, 1500 and 800 on the NASDAQ off of a ceasefire, which again, rates a big wow.

Actually, pretty stunning. Applied materials in the aftermarket closed 440. I got at 456. Good move. Not so great today was Boeing in the Dow Down 11. I guess they were supposed to get orders from China, and I guess the market thinks they got less than expected, don't know. But otherwise, no biggie. But let me just repeat. MasterCard, Visa, Capital One, bare markets. Most medicals, bare markets. A ton of the consumer names in areas,

bare markets. Retail, bare markets. They bounce today. Bear markets. Restaurants, bare markets I think one look oh Starbucks acts well I keep them in business insurance had a good day today I call that a bearish market

because insurance stocks will never go into a big bear market individual names could but overall won't housing a horror show housing related terrible bare markets

travel good and just so you know in my nightly look at housing in areas in Florida I always look at Vegas I look at Phoenix I look at North Carolina I look at a few places inventory continues to pick up and people are lowering prices left and right because they cannot move houses off of fantasy land prices as I have said to you there are people putting up homes for three million bucks that sold for one million four years ago? They ain't getting it. I don't blame them. So we're getting that normalization and outcome of Jay Powell's distortions and that's fine and that's good. We'll get back to

equilibrium in time. Where I don't know and of course it's always going to be location. I can tell you that Palm Beach, on the beach, homes there, I doubt they'll go down from 75 million to 50. Hamptons, I hear, is pretty good. But again, as I stated, rough going, if you're a seller right now, got to get lucky. And I can tell you areas of Florida, Go on Zillow and put in Boker atone or Windermere, you'll see hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of houses for sale. And they're all competing with each other based on price. And I mean hundreds and hundreds and hundreds. I do not think disaster.

Remember, in 2007, we predicted big trouble. I'm not seeing big trouble. I'm seeing just a normalization. from fantasy land. And I'm in the midst of looking, so I'm a happy guy as prices keep coming down, and you can bid under and get done. So that's a little housing for you, and one plus one equals two. The housing stocks have been brutally beat up.

And in case you don't know, these companies that build homes and sell homes are throwing in things. We'll give you upgraded this, upgraded that, lower mortgage rates. They do their own mortgages. Maybe somebody throws in a pool for free. You know things are soft when that happens. By the way, applied materials was up 18 bucks about five minutes ago.

It's now down one in the aftermarket. Welcome to my world. Have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do like I do. Make sure you hug your children, hug your family. They'll feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will.

Be well. Have a great one, everybody. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.