Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Chipping Away!

Episode Date: September 15, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It's Thursday, September 15th, 2020. And today is one of those days. As you know, I do not script the show. I just start talking. I just start yapping away. Today, I've got a list. I call them tidbits. But each and every one of them is important.

Well, I take that back. A couple of them are not important to you and the economy and the markets and your money and all that other stuff. But most of it is. So, but first, if you do not get this radio show that also is a podcast on all the podcast apps in your city and by the way there is no more important radio show or television show on you and your money in the markets than this show

and that is by far and simple reason why since february of 21 forget going even before that we told you all the bubbles would pop. We started outlining every single growth stock when they were topping. That brought us to November when we said everything else was topping in growth stockland and look out below. And then they got the big guys. And then we told you the market was coming in and just get the heck out of the way. We even mentioned to you when we had counter-trend rallies. And we called near-term lows.

But most importantly, the warnings of Rivian at 170 that went down to 20, the warnings of the bubbles, you know which ones, the warnings of destruction, the warnings of the central bank. And we told you about inflation two years ago. That was the only outcome of printing up to $9 trillion here and a lot more around the globe. So this will continue to be the most important show because here's the deal. We scan with no bias. politically we can't stand any of them. So we're not in anybody's camp.

So we don't curry favor with one or the other. We tell you like it is. And we have a lot to offer today. So listen carefully. If you do not get this show in your city, go to garyk.com. We'll post it there. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed.

If you don't follow us on Twitter, go there and follow us, put our name in, or at garyk.com. I think there's a little Twitter. button, take you right there. You can email us. You just have to be nice. You can disagree with us all you want. Do it respectfully because we will respectfully disagree with you if we disagree with you. We believe we're all in this together and there's too much cursing back and forth when you know what we shouldn't be cursing each other back and forth. We should be cursing them.

the leaders of this country that have put us $31 trillion in debt, a central bank that is just, what did we tell you for two years? They're out of control. So where do we want to start today? Number one, I just had to start with this, and this has nothing to do with you and your money. Do you know that the line, they call it the Q, and it's spelled Q-U-E-E-E, to spend just a couple of minutes at the casket of Queen Elizabeth is 4.9 miles long, and the weight to get there is eight and a half hours.

You have to stand in line. That's amazing. You know, I said to you on this show that it was about like 10 years. ago, somewhere around there. And as you know, I go to London just about every year. I'm at Buckingham Palace. And I'm just doing my little walkabout.

I think I stayed at the Hilton right at Hyde Park and, you know, just walk around, walk down, the mall and everything, and you get there. And income, one car. It wasn't a slew of cars. You know, like if the President of the United States show up, there's like 50

cars. It was just one car. Queen Elizabeth. was in it. And I only saw the back of her head when I realized what was going on because people, and there weren't a ton of people there at the time, was started breaking down in tears that they saw her. It was amazing to watch. And I asked somebody about it.

Everybody's breaking down in tears. And a lady had said to me, you're American, you probably don't understand what she means to us. She didn't say that as a put-down. She just, that's number one. Unbelievable. Number two, that has nothing to do with you and your money or markets. Roger Federer is retiring.

He is my, number one athlete idol of the last I don't know how many years and I've gotten to see him the last time I saw him was US Open and I had seats right on the court

he even looked at me once he's 41 years old and his knees just he's tried to get back and just impossible especially tennis and he's going to play something called the Lever Cup next week in London. It's a team thing, team world against team Europe.

And it's a team thing, and I don't know how it's, it's Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, I'm going. Or at least I'm trying to go. It depends on when he's playing. And if he's just playing doubles, I'm not sure I'm going to do that. But man, oh man, when I saw that, I knew it was coming. But still hit me. You know how you guys feel about your idols, music-wise, when Neil Pert passed away of Rush.

I want to speak to anybody for two or three days. For example. So Roger Federer. And now we segue into what this show is basically about, especially since we believe February 20. protecting your precious capital in the times where asset prices are going down. And Wall Street telling you, don't worry, everything's okay, it'll come back. Don't worry. But in my account is Peloton and it's down 90%.

Oh, it's only 1% of your account. Yeah, but you held it down 90%. How am I supposed to trust you? Well, we're diversified. Hey, buddy, kiss my ass. You're down 90%. So we're here to protect your capital. Because, as we've been saying to you,

recently we took a dump. We tried a rally. Then a 1,300 point drop on Tuesday. And the worry being, we're headed back to June, and even more. We've explained to you bare markets that normally in bare markets, the last legs are vicious and wipe the smiles off everybody's face. It gets rid of a lot of people out of the market for years. It drowns out and stops all the froth and speculation.

But amazingly, in the last few weeks, and we've warned you, we've had massive froth and speculation. They frothed up the bedbath and beyond to 30. It's back to 877. They frothed up the GameStop, the AMC theaters that's getting destroyed again. And we simply said to you, wait a minute, hold on. This has never happened at real bare market bottoms. Froth and speculation just weeks off the lows. So we worried about that and looks like that worry may be coming to fruition. which leads me to amazingly remember that HKD it's called AMT Digital

came out at 7.3 quarter IP open at 15 and went to $2,550 bucks in days. Wait to hear what happened next. And then we have more tidbits of import. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,

hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people, we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not

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For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.

We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more. at APU. APUS.edu.edu. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, we're going through tidbits. HKD that went from 7 and 3 quarters, opened at 15, went to $2,555. giving it a $400 billion market cap. And we told you, well, it's going to go back to where it came from.

But the fact that this would happen, this is for the records. This one's the biggest move we've ever seen in history. And just so you know, if you're thinking, oh, why couldn't I catch that? You really couldn't. The liquidity was nil. They had to spread it like a hundred bucks. Anyway, it went from $2555 back to $45. bucks and still ridiculously valued at $45.

Yesterday it went to 287 before closing at 189. Today it went to 385 from 189, closed at 134. Do you think that's normal activity? That's froth and speculation. We're nearing bear market lows. That only happens near bull market high. That scares the living crap out of me But I'm not done

I once got to interview Magic Johnson I wrote and did some business with a company called trading markets.com And they had this convention I really I think it was after 9-11 Maybe it was the year later I think It was at the Venetian hotel

And I got to spend a half hour with him Beforehand with him and his best friend I think his name was Larry Drew, another basketball player. And we just talked. And what was funny about it, or not funny, he cared more about me than I cared more about him. And believe me, I cared about him. He was asking me about my life. I was like, holy crap, Magic Johnson's asking me about my life.

And we went up, and I got to interview him in front of 8, 900 people. and I asked him a question that after the interview said it's the best question anybody's ever asked him. And that was the one thing I've noticed about you, Michael, Jordan, Larry Bird, and just a select few. Whether it's an exhibition game, the first minute of an exhibition game, or the last minute, whether it's the first game of the year or the last game of the year, or the seventh game overtime of the NBA championship. It just looks like you would run down every ball sweatier you know what's off. And I used the word when I said that.

People laughed. What do you think makes the difference with you, Michael, Jordan, Larry Bird, and other great athletes and others that, and he just said, we know what makes the difference. and we know that everybody else will not go that far. And then he said, and my father worked the overnight shift in Detroit to keep food on the table.

Mom, two jobs. He went, and I'm bringing this up because of Michael Jordan, because I used it in there. Michael Jordan playoff shirt today, sold for 10. million dollars so why am I bringing that up number one these people with their hard work wanting to work harder and longer and smart than anybody else guess what where they are just a little clue for each and every one of you who are trying to make it in this world but I'm bringing it up because what I

just mentioned AKHKD somebody paid 10 million bucks for a shirt that worries me. Bubbles. So there was a little long winded getting to that, but I had to mention it because I always like mentioning that story. Somebody paid 10 million bucks for a shirt. That really worries me. That is a sign of froth and speculation and pay any price for anything and tells me, I don't think we've wrung out all the excesses yet. Next, symbol RYTM, I bet you never heard. of this one. It is a biotech with, I guess, pretty much no sales. It's called Rhythm Pharmaceuticals.

It's been public since 2017, been as high as 40, went down to three, and recently, with a better market for speculative biotech hit 30 yesterday, and I bring it up because I got a lot of emails on it last night. You know why? Because it broke out of range yesterday on heavy. volume. And you know how I answered all those emails? Good luck. Not for me. Why? You know what I've said about this. I have no interest in buying no sales biotex because I would worry about waking up in the morning and the placebo does better than the drug in phase two trial and the stock drops 50%.

And we've highlighted throughout the years, what, 200, 300, 300 stocks that did that? Well, they didn't have any bad news on a drug. You know what the problem with no sales? biotex? They got to raise money. Oh, they announced a big secondary. The stock was down 25% today. All those buyout traders, they got stopped down today. Again, just lessons. That's all we're trying to do is lessons. Next, I didn't really follow this story. Ethereum, one of the coins that, you know, is still around with Bitcoin, unlike the other 20,000 coins that are now at zero. So you know what I was told early in the week? You got to buy Ethereum because they're doing some sort of merger.

And it has to do with the fact that their costs to do something. They're going to go down by 99%. You got to own it. You got to own it. Got it own it. Got it own it. Got to own it. It got to own it.

I was told to own it. E.T.H.E. On Monday, hit 1333. Closed at 1114 today. What did we tell you about the coins? 90% of them are going to go down 90% or more with most going to zero. They're just bubbles. That's all.

The Miami coin, remember that? Came out with great fanfare. It's down 95%. But the Miami, what is it, the Miami mayor? People are talking about him for the presidency. Really? You want to have somebody president who came out with a coin that went down 95%? I don't think so.

Next, Roku. I just want to let you know that Roku was up five bucks today. This is a stock that has been absolutely destroyed down from $490. And I believe some people had targets of $1,000. And close today, it's $74 from $490. It was up $5.50. Do you know I was up? Vague rumors of a buyout.

Why is that bad? That's up next. And a few more tidbits and the market wrap and I'll wind and complain about other things. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors, Ed. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman

and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to that. Big areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example.

If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings,

including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at OnDec.com.

Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to... America is talking. Investors Edge. Gotta be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Why am I bringing up the Roku? Because here's what came out on Roku. Vague rumors of a buyout. Kids. My peeps.

That's bad. It's a characteristic of froth and speculation. somebody who is getting destroyed in the stock, floated something, got out to somebody who put it out, and it went up five bucks. Vague rumors. Let me explain something to you about rumors. If you are an insider of a company, you cannot put out rumors.

You go to jail. It's a crime. It's a felony. You know, like the 97 members of Congress who's traded stock, in the last year on legislation that they were voting on, those 97 scumbags that should not be in Washington, D.C., that we would go to jail for for what they did. But Roku was still able to go up five bucks.

Another characteristic that worries us. Next. Do you know Adobe? we've mentioned it before. This was just so you know. This was the name that really, in November, when it topped, really told me the next shoe was dropping. It's gone from 700 to 309,

and this was a stalwart software stock. It's not a stalwart anymore. Do you know they reported earnings? and buy out of a company, the stock was down $63 today. That does not happen in bull markets. Another characteristic to worry about, let me repeat, Adobe, a stalwart software company announces a buyout of some other company that I've never heard of and reports earnings that was not, you know, earnings up nine revenues up 13, which is down from a year ago. It's up from a year ago, but down from the numbers a year ago in growth.

63 bucks. And it was on volume. You ready for this? Almost 13 times average volume. You know our line is, right? That wasn't Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling. It's the institutions. The big guys.

The smart money. The big money. Another characteristic that we had a mention to you. And one last one under the tidbit front that we are surprised at. Remember how we've said we're stunned about how far these growth names have dropped? Adobe 700 down to 309. Gold went into new yearly low ground today. And I'm just thinking to my self again what the heck is going on with gold we have been taught and rightfully so inflation equals higher gold prices yearly low on it today and that's just surprising is all heck and i must gather the gold bugs have pulled all their hair out by now stunning And I don't know what's at work there, but it's stunning.

Had to mention that. And I think that's it from my tidbits today. Oh, one more. On the good, oh, two more. I found two other things. On the good front, there's not going to be a rail strike. So did they bounce up the rails today? Very little.

They were up better and then they came down. I will tell you this. If there was going to be a rail strike, one week of that strike would have been a horror show. So good news, that did not happen. And lastly, now lastly, immigration. So as you're missed the logic, we've always had a problem with illegal immigration.

Why? Simple. What do you tell all the, I don't know, how many millions of people throughout the years, that came here legally. What do you say to them? Suckers! Is that what you say to them?

Isn't that logical? So I've always had a problem with it. The country thrives on immigration, but it needs to be controlled. I've always thought that. I've also always worried about shouldn't we vet these people? Do you know how illogical things are that Novak Djokovic

was not allowed to come into this country to play the U.S. Open? Because he's unvaccinated. But the southern border has, who the hell knows what's coming through? And then we're bringing them in and feeding him and housing them. And not checking on COVID. This is a true story. Illogical. So I don't know if you know this,

but governors of some states, including our Florida governor, has sent some of these people. I heard they sent to Martha's Vineyard today. And I believe near Kamala Harris's, Kamala, is it Kamala Harris? Her house, the VP. And they were all mad.

And you know what's interesting? the media that has refused to report on any of the goings-on on the southern border because Biden is the president. Remember, they were 24-7 when Trump was the president. They ripped them to shred it, rightfully so, on the children thing. But when all was said and done, Donald Trump was trying to control the border. This guy don't give a crap. It's no control. Yet the vice president was out this week saying, oh, yeah, the border is secure.

She lied. The press secretary lied. Joe Biden lied. So what the governor, Texas and Florida, they're sending the people coming in to other states. And the other states are all mad. And you know what was interesting? The media is mad that they're sending the people to the other states. Isn't that interesting?

Not that your border is not secure. Not that a bunch of fentanyl and drugs are coming in that God knows where it's getting to. not that some bad people may be coming across the border also but the border governors are sick and tired of our government doing nothing about it not interesting how life is going on right now i had to mention that there's no logic and what does it have to do with you and your money our taxpayer dollars are paying for this how do you feel about that and have been paying and how do you feel about all those people that came here legally time, sweat, toil, money,

sleepless nights, crying whether it's going to get done or not and then finally they become U.S. citizens, they came here the right way. What should Joe Biden say to these people? Suckers, you could have just come across the border and we do nothing about it. That's how I feel about what's going on with immigrants. I'm logical.

It's simple logic. And of course, this administration is lying about it. And of course, the media is covering up for them. And now my tidbits are done. Let me make sure. I'm done. So there was a lot to pack in there. Let me just say to set up the next segment.

Chipping away will explain. This is the one. investors' edge. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind.

If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology,

is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting French,

or pursuing a lifelong passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. OnDek is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, On Dex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau

and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge with Gary Culper. Okay, welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. It's Thursday. It is September 15th, 2020.

A moment ago, I used the words chipping away. What am I talking about? Well, the 3,900 level on the S&P and the 11,500 level of the NASDAQ are recent support levels that have held for a bit. If they break, we shall be headed back to the June lows, towards it. And I would suggest odds favor will probably get there. And of course, if we break those June lows, forget about it. We have told you under no uncertain terms, our study of bare markets usually have these legs to the downside that are really vicious.

vicious they're usually the late legs and we've got to wipe out this froth that's also part of the cycle which hasn't happened obviously because of what I've just told you so I'm just letting you know that the S&P finished at 3901 today the NASDAQ 11552 but more importantly they were chipping away at it today and how do we know the chipping away in individual stocks individual names. That's what we mean. Remember, every night we scan 200 sectors and sub-sectors, 1,500 to 2,000 stocks, every country, every commodity, and they're chipping away. I found more and more names in trouble. And I have to mention Apple. Apple, while the indices have not broken the last two weeks lows, Apple did today. And as you know, we think Apple is a parked stock.

What do we mean by that? 16 billion shares outstanding. So if I'm this big institution that needs to move money around and I want to de-risk, I find the companies with the most shares outstanding and trade the most volume so if I need to get out it's easier to get out Apple trades 70 million shares a day and 16 billion shares outstanding so every time we've had a rally it just felt like the money's parked in there and the worry is listen carefully apples and earnings and sales have decelerate in a very big way yet it's valuation compared to its norm of the last 10 years, it's almost double.

If they normalized Apple's valuation, that means a lot. And the fact is, I believe it's still 7% of the S&P 500 and somewhere in the NASDAQ 100. So that is to be watched. Apple and Amazon are 1-2. Amazon's getting into some trouble itself at this juncture. A break below 123.66 would not be thrilling.

So, and then today, the 10 year yield, 3.459, the high of June, 3.485. the one year went over 4% today, closed a little bit below, and then worries. With all this going on, warnings, I don't see how we can't have a bunch of earnings warnings as we move forward. So stay tuned. We're kind of sort of on this little ledge here that would lead to move down to the June lows. and then reevaluate. And if the June lows ever get taken out, and that's not for now, we think the institutions would be putting in the red tickets. By the way, as I just said that, FedEx is withdrawing guidance and their first quarter shipments disappointing. Stock is down 23 bucks

in the aftermarket. That's a big drop for a FedEx to new yearly lows. That will not help tomorrow's market. And I gather that means UPS, down $10 in the aftermarket. Look at that. What timing? So just let, I'll add another thing about chipping away. The Dow was only down 173 today, but advanced declines on the New York, 1,064 up, 3,022 down.

And now FedEx, and we'll see what that means in the morning. We deal in reality here, we deal in the facts here. And that will not look good on a resume tomorrow. And I'm wondering if that'll affect like an Amazon, you know, delivery. FedEx guides first quarter well below consensus and guides second quarter revenue below consensus, citing global volume softness, particularly due to macroeconomic weakness in Asian service challenges in Europe. withdraws FY 23, fiscal year 23 earnings. Yikes.

Just so you know FedEx is one of my premium names that we watch. FedEx, Caterpillar, and the like. On that note, have a great evening drive carefully. If I forgot to mention the market wrap, that's Jim Roarback, Investment-Models.com. Boy, it's so much to talk about. Until tomorrow, I'll be on with. Neil Cavuto, noon to two, Fox Business Network.

You have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like I do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, you hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better, I promise, get yourself some exercise. Should be interesting day tomorrow. Peace out all. Take care. Bye-bye.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh,

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