Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Circular financing [07.27.2026]

Episode Date: July 27, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is, what, the 27th of July, 2006. Hope you having a good day. Hope you had a good weekend. I'm here in Central Florida. It is storming out right now. Thunderbolts and lightning, very, very frightening. Galileo, Galileo, little queen. Lots to cover.

Serious talk on everything that affects you. The president. We're going to cover him today. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, war. ceasefires, scams and shams, and everything that matters to you. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should.

Just put our name in. And if you'd like to email us, you've just got to be nice. That shouldn't be too hard, right? We'll also post it on the YouTube channel of BizTV. And we start. So we as a country gave in to Iran over the weekend. We said we're going to stop our whatever we're doing. Iran said, since you're stopping, we'll stop.

But don't start again. They're giving us directives. that's what it's come down to. I take no joy in saying it, but that's where it is. As I have been stating for how long now? Before today, before last week, months, they miscalculated everything. Not the fact that the military part, we can kick the crap out of anybody. And the fact is there's no way Iran could do anything to the United States here.

But they're kicking the crap out of our bases over there and other Middle East countries. And control of the Straits of Hormuz, as the president says, we're controlling, no, we're not. The good news, oil dropped 8% today on that news. So for whatever reason, that should make you happy. Why? Prices at the pump are going up again. And if prices stayed up, anything petroleum-wise that's made with petroleum, that price goes up also. So let's hope it sticks.

The president's all... Here's the problem. So you know. The president's already out making fun of Iran and saying, no, they're calling me, they're bowing down to me. And we know that's not true. And every time he does that, Iran comes out and gives him the middle finger. And we're back to square one again. So the ego keeps getting in the way.

But I digress. It's great that oil prices dropped 8%. Let's hope they continue down. because oil prices had a very big move over the last three or four weeks. Have gotten back. Now, let's see, the drop today, about 30% of the rally. Next, so we've been warning you about the semiconductors and the artificial intelligence trade.

We were warning you about some of the fundamentals while they were going up in price. So I'm going to do a little explanation for you. And then there's a little culmination of that explanation. Now, first off, the semiconductor index was down another big 264 today, but it was down 500. But it's my contention. The bounce was because of how far down it went over a short period of time. so you get what we say to you, stretched, extended, oversold, and you can bounce in any time.

So you got some of the bounce today. Whether or not it continues or not beats the heck out of me, but there's a bigger picture in this. So what have we explained to you over the last couple of months that worries us about what's been going on with this whole artificial intelligence? Well, number one, the spend. You've been hearing the spend that this company and that company and this company and that company and that company, and this company and that company are going to spend not hundreds of millions, not billions, but tens of billions. And we heard that Google is going to raise 80 billion in debt and stock offering.

And the stock got hit. Oracle, massive amounts of debt. And the list goes on and on. And these spenders, by the way, they call them hypers, they're still. Their stocks have paid a huge penalty, not necessarily Google, because they have the greatest. And by the way, when I use the word monopoly, I use that with affection. Greatest search monopoly in history. But Oracle, Microsoft, they've been crushed.

So that's one part. And I've been saying to you, how are these companies going to make any money? How is it possible these companies can make any money? And I kept saying, I don't think they can make any money. There's no way. How are you going to spend this amount of money and make a dime? That's number one. Number two, are they actually going to do that spend?

You know, it's not up front. It's over time. Because we've heard bigger wins blow in the past. And nothing happened. Or less than expected, we don't know. but our biggest worry, our biggest worry, circular financing, and that simply is a company, invest in another company, I'm going to make up another number. Here's $5 billion. We're partnering up by our products.

This is why we're giving it to you. It's an investment. and then you book that revenue. Circular financing. There's been a ton of that going on. I mentioned to you how VDivDIA created an entity, just an entity, and gave the entity a couple of billion, I believe.

And then an outfit gave them the other three billion, I think it was a total of $5 billion, and that was all debt. And you know, guess what that $5 billion was doing? Buying Nvidia's products and booking his revenues. Interesting. NVIDIA announced and talking about guaranteeing up to $250 billion to open AI. Guess who stuff OpenAI buys? Let me repeat that number.

$250 billion. The CEO of Invidio when asked about, isn't this the circular financing said, that's ridiculous. Your Hansman Buffed host says to you, it is the definition of circular financing. There are those that believe the reason they are doing it is because it likes the math. No, the math is good. We're going to backstop $250 billion, but we're going to make plenty off of it.

The problem, this second, though, is the market. The market's not believing it. The market is penalizing the semiconductor. and artificial intelligence stocks in a very big way now because of some belief. That's my contention. And today was another one of those days. What did we tell you what credit default swaps were?

They call them CDs. Up next. An explanation of that. This is the one on the Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a national syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement

planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. the integrator units and get the brain cells working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this

a credit default swap is a financial derivative it's a contract a buyer will make regular premium payments to a seller in exchange for a payout if a borrower or debt issuer fails to repay its obligations. It functions as an insurance policy. Simple as that. Triggers for a payout include bankruptcy, failure to make a payment, or a formal debt restructuring. It's used by banks and investors to hedge to lower exposure to problems. And of course, speculators use it also. Today, Nvidia's five-year credit default swaps jumped the most on record. The market said, what are you freaking kidding? Today, Nvidia's stock dropped 10 and a couple. quarter. A huge drop. Technically, ew. Now, we are not accusing, claiming anything. We're reporting.

The things that I am worried about have been worried about with the spend and these numbers are coming to fruition. 250 billion? How the hell are you making money on that? So just let you know. Just let you know. If anything, it is a credit event that'll kick the house in the teeth. Now that those that are saying that a dot-com parallel is overblown, I'm not going to say anything. Except, call me a little bit worried still.

The numbers keep getting bigger. And I'm wondering something. Are we going to get to a point where we wake up one day and one of these big, they call them, hyperscalerscalers, said, well, you know that 80 billion? It's only going to be 60. You know what happens that day? Well, first off, that company's stock's going to go higher because these stocks have been penalized because of the spend. So just letting you know another rough day for the semis and AI, though, some did come off. the floor there was some green I saw some reversals let's see monolithic power

today finished up just five bucks but at one time today it was down 50 by the way it's a thirteen hundred dollar stock so that one bounced but as I look through my stuff less than thrilling As I have scanned all the semis and the AI today, there's only one good thing I can tell you. They're stretched, they're extended, they're oversold and can bounce, but we had a bounce and still finished down 264. I have no idea what happens tomorrow. We just want to let you know, call us worried. and let me state for the record,

we hope we are wrong. Everything is below the 50-day moving average. In tech, I think I got, let's see, Dell, I think Dell's above the 50-day. After that, it'd be hard-pressed. Except Apple. Apple knew all-time high today. Do you know why?

they don't have much of the spend. They didn't do the spend. And by the way, their numbers are pretty decent. Valuation is a joke compared to its history, but the numbers are pretty decent. So that's that. What else? SpaceX down another two bucks today was down five.

Tesla was down another four bucks, was down eight. We mentioned at Vidia down 10 and change. That's not good news. We mentioned the semiconductors down 264. We'll see what tomorrow brings. We mentioned that things were much worse but bounced. The NASDAQ 100 was down 340 today, but only finished down 90. The Dow was up 680 today.

Finished only up 260. But I will tell you, it was up 680. there was a time today where it was only up 60. So it did bounce back, and you know why it bounced back? Because Caterpillar, which was down, geez, 50 finished only down 15. That's 200 now points. Goldman Sachs was still down 13, but at one time today was down 33. That's 130.

Those are your two most important names of the Dow, and that's how the Dow came back, amongst some other things. What else did I see today? Oil stocks were down, of course, with oil prices down, but not that much. Interesting enough, with oil prices down, transports were down 400. It was down, I think, $5.50 at one time. But I got some transport stocks breaking down. We'll see if that continues. With oil tanking, of course the cruise lines are up today, the airlines are up today.

Restaurants. I got to tell you, there's some Brinker International, strong stock right now. Cheesecake Factory, strong stock right now. What's that other one? BJ's restaurants, strong. Others not so strong. But some restaurants. Retail had a pretty good day, but I'm hard pressed to find too many names that are in shape. Up next. Hey, what else? And we're going to do a little of the president today.

Why? He matters. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Uh, mega millions tonight is $800 million. I take that back. Powerball tonight is $633 million.

Mega millions tomorrow is $800 million. We do not want you to forget that the greatest con in history is our government lotteries. Their marketing is BS. The odds of winning, well, as I've stated to you, and I do not. think this is hyperbole. If you got hit by lightning today and tomorrow at the same time, in the same place, you'd have a better odds of that happening than winning one of these things. But as I tell you, I'm a hypocrite on it. I will play it every now and then. When it gets big, I will throw some bucks in it. If you can't afford it, don't do it. Just remember that.

Very important. We always talk to you about this. you go to casinos just remember every game you play they have an edge against you and the longer you play the worst outcome that's why we tell you if you're a casino player when you're up get the hell out of there they hate that the most why you leaving and they'll send a very pretty bartender over to you to give you free drinks to get you loaded so you stay they're very good at that. Just let you know. Respect the dollar. Very important. Respect the dollar. And by the way, I'm not kidding when I tell you what these odds are. They're a joke. The second biggest con of all time is Social Security, of course, as I've told you. Greatest Ponzi

scheme ever. They told us all the money's in a lock box. Don't worry. And they've sat around, have done nothing about the fact that demographics have changed throughout the last two, three, four decades, where people are dying much, much later and getting more and more out of their Social Security. But as we have told you, if when they started Social Security, they never had a Social Security Administration, which by the way caused billions every year, and if that money just went into an account in your name, which you could not touch, came right out of your paycheck, and every single dime went into this 10-year bonds, you'd have a lot of. a ton more money right now and it'd be in your hands and wouldn't spend billions on a Social Security

Administration and they wouldn't have to do what they're going to do in the next few years. Maybe means testing, maybe change the age or something. Because they've held back because why? You remember what I told you? Back when Bush won the second term, they invited me and others to the White House. Did radio shows to talk about Social Security? Just to talk about it. A week later, I get a call for my contact. His name was Taylor and said, they're dropping it. Why? They're getting killed politically. Do you realize if back then, if you just took 1% of your money and went into the stock market in 2000? Holy crap. I think they were talking about maybe 5%. imagine. But no, your government has control of it. They've squandered it. And you're getting

so much less from them than you would have, if you were just in 10-year notes, the second greatest con. Actually, Social Security is probably the greatest con. Lottery, second. Oh, by the way, both brought to you by the government. Just letting you know. Oh, and by the way, the means testing is, oh, if you have too much money, maybe you won't get Social Security anymore. Even though it came out of your paycheck as a tax. Welcome to our government, ladies and gentlemen. Just let you know. The market, strong day for software, especially the weakest software,

which has me just thinking again is the market thinking that this has become too much and something is going to give. I don't know. All I can tell you is that software has been the anti-Semi and semi has been the anti-software. So software is getting relative strength right now while the semis are losing it. That said, in software, I have maybe a handful of names that are technically sound. The rest have been destroyed and are just coming off the lows. today in the Dow Salesforce.com was up 10, 65 Dow points. The stock just from January has gone from 269 to 173.

Microsoft, God bless it, was up seven today. It's gone from 466 to 389 in the last six weeks. Oracle up five today. That's gone from 250 to 119 in about eight weeks. So some of the worst names like Service Now, HubSpot, Workday, all had very strong days today, and maybe they're bottoming. Notice my word maybe, I'm not sure yet. There's a chance you got a bottoming process going. I'm not sure.

By the way, SAP, the German, big German one that has been absolutely destroyed, gapped up on decelerating earnings. and sales Friday, gapped up again today. Tomorrow will be another day. What else? As I said, oil prices down so retail better day, but I'm not finding much. Best Buy is strong on their pedestrian numbers. CVS drug stores strong. Victoria's Secret Strong.

William Sonoma is getting there. So you got a few. Raw stores. Raw stores, I think, went New Yearly High today. I must double check that. Yes, it did. And that is a rare occurrence for a retailer. What else?

Financials, away from the banks, not bad. I noticed things like Raymond James and Schwab having very good days today. Very good. Coming on strong. Banks were mixed, Goldman Sachs, I think has this little, AI component and it was down 13 but was down 33. As I mentioned, transport's weird. Don't know what to tell you there.

China's still bouncing a little bit more. SpaceX was down a couple, but the space stocks had a little bounce today. They have been destroyed. You're welcome. While the world, the pundits were yelling at you, you got to own them because of the valuation of SpaceX and they're going to go up. We were saying, wait a minute, they're all losing money. and some of them have hardly any sales and they have $50 billion market caps

do you know Rocket Lab at its high had a 90 some odd billion dollar market cap with less than a billion, 800 million in sales and loses money? The things the markets do every now and then, ladies and gentlemen. That's why we think our best attribute here is making sure you stay out of the muck and Muck to me is ridiculous about SpaceX.

113? By the way, I think it was under 110 today. And by the way, I just want to let you know something on SpaceX. People were making fun of Elon Musk, that he just lost whatever amount of money. They're making fun of a guy that's still worth like, how do you make fun of somebody and his money when he's worth like $750 billion

people are weird I still remember in 99 they were making fun of Warren Buffett because he wasn't involved in the internet they were making fun of him people were making fun of Warren Buffett I'm going to guess Warren Buffett had the last laugh as you know we make fun of nobody in our business

we know how tough it is and the only person we really take on is that woman who said $1.5 million for Bitcoin in 2030, and we think somebody should put tape over our mouth when she starts talking that crap. Yeah, sure. Right. Anyway, you catch my drift. Let's hope oil prices keep going lower.

Up next. The president. This is the one only investor's edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what he's waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, this is just in the last day or two. And we have to preface this. We take no joy. He said, in just 18 months, we've turned this country completely around. This country was dead.

No, the country was not dead. In fact, GDP under Biden, better than Trump's last 18 months. I hate saying that, but it's true. Golden Age, we're in a golden age, not with 1.8 GDP. And minimal job gains. He said, we launched the war on fraud. Yeah, this while he pardoned a crap load of white-collar criminals that committed fraud and no longer have to pay restitution to their victims, and we find out it was pay for pardons. He says, America is respected again, I know as a fact. Leaders of many countries, you know where I was going with that.

here's where I agree how the hell do we not have voter ID I saw somebody say it is racist to have voter ID because blacks do not have access to get IDs don't you think blacks have had enough of that type of talk

think about that they're being talked down they can't get voter ID think about the places you need voter ID excuse me, just ID. Think about that. I think voting is important. So we can agree with the president on that one.

He says we're having the single greatest year we've ever had as a country. That's a lie. How is that possible? The single greatest year while you flubbed a war with Iran, you have minimal GDP, job market is tepid, and you should see the price for potato chips, I don't know what to tell you.

I don't know what to tell you. Oh, by the way, he put up a post of a CNN woman and took her head and put her on a trans person. This is the president of the United States. The president of the United States. And you wonder why I worry. You ready for this quote? I've done more for you than your parents.

I'm not going to knock your parents, but I have been better to you than your parents. Oh, by the way, that was not a joke. Iran took a beating over the last 14 days, and they asked us very nicely, please stop, which is not true. Just makes it up. What have I said to you? You're rooting for him. We stand by them. Want great things.

But this immaturity, this constant change. changing of the minds. He's back on tariffs again. His constant lies and making things up just worries the hell out of me. We got over two more years left and I really sit down and think what's going to happen next. Oh, not to mention the self-dealing him and his family. Hopefully four billions enough. Anyway, I wish I had better things to say. I want great things. If I met him, I'd shake his hand and I would give him as much advice as possible. And of course, he would not listen. The stock market under him is doing good. My father always said, what happens, whether it's because or not, the president gets the credit. I'm good with that.

I love what he did at the border. Love it. Thousand percent. How to close it. Joe Biden should have been impeached just for that. I love what he did on crime, but that went too far. Deportations, but then went too far. Hopefully, ISIS learned some lessons.

It's not good marketing when you're shooting people. Oh, by the way, he now says Israel would be no longer if he was not president. right now. That's big bull crap too. So I wish him well. We do not have TDS. We have truth derangement syndrome and America derangement syndrome. And we want only great things going forward from him. But I will tell you, it is exhausting. And I have a lot of mag of friends who agree with me. Just exhausting. Better days ahead. Better days ahead. hopefully we'll keep you in tune with the market as best as we can and again oil prices big dump today yields came down a little bit let's hope that continues

fundamentally there is nothing better than oil prices energy prices and the cost of capital coming down there is nothing worse than them going up and let us keep our fingers crossed that whatever's been going on with this Iran thing ends. Have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like I do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Have a good night. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Thank you.