Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Closer To Next Move.

Episode Date: February 15, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's February 15, 2023. And we had to talk of everything about you and everything that affects you. Your life, your jobs, the economy, the markets, your money. and them and all points in between. And we take no prisoners here. We pull no punches.

We have no bias. We have no agenda. We have no ulterior motive except to tell you the truth while all else is lying to you. And we mean lying to you, unfortunately. I had some other things I wanted to start with, but I had this sent to me. And I have verified it. From the Congressional Budget Office, the CBO, I call it the Congressional Bullcrap Office. The U.S., oh, well, let's back up.

Joe Biden is cutting the deficits, right? Record amounts. The U.S. is on track to add nearly 19 trillion of debt over the next decade. That's 1.9 trillion per year. You got that? So in 10 years We'll be at 51 trillion of debt But you know what I believe

It'll be a lot more It's only gonna get worse They're full of themselves They think they can do anything Get away with anything So just letting you know Because I'm about to talk very positive about the markets That's about now

You know what I think longer term But for now If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on a Twitter feed, also the podcast apps. If you don't follow me on Twitter, you should because we'll post it on Twitter. Just go to Twitter, put our name in, or press the button at garyk.com. You can email me, just be nice. You know what the most emails I get right now?

The most emails I get right now. One category, I don't believe the rally. That's what we're getting from people. We don't believe the rally. The market's going to crash. That's what we're getting. And when we say we're getting a bunch, we're getting a bunch. And everybody's coming up with very sound reasons to back why they believe.

Markets going to crash, get crushed. What I talk about, the debt and the deficits, for starters. The inflation is still elevated. rates still ticking higher. I got news for them. This second, the market wants to go higher. And due to the fact we have cred with you guys that every time the market is topped,

in the past 18 months, we've called it within a day or two. And as we've said to you recently, uh-uh, any drop will be pullbacks should be controlled. Still not easy. You had a icky. drop last week in the NASDAQ. It's resolved already, pretty much. We'll get to that in a minute.

But I get the reason why we get these emails from people. And they're all the same. They're all pretty much the same. End of the world coming. Seriously. End of the world. Next, I just want to mention real quickly. What have I been really peoed about with the president? as a recent, besides everything. But recently, how are you the leader of the free world, the president of the great United States of America, 300 and some odd million people? And you have pretty much a country that has gone full comie, authoritarian, Fast tracking control and military. Sending drones over the country and you know about them in advance before they hit our country?

And you let them fly over the whole country even though you now admit you don't know what the hell was in them. And you say nothing about it? Not a word. What's been my biggest complaint? Where the hell is the president? Well, he may have been listening to this great show of ours because we are now hearing he's going to have a speech to the nation real soon. What a leader. I repeat, they're all so lucky to have us.

Seriously, they're all so lucky to have us. Without us, they're screwed. With them, we're screwed. we're screwed but for now I just want you to listen carefully what I have to say we have been telling you recently

we love when the Dow does nothing but the NASDAQ is strong we don't mind Dow down 200 NASDAQ flat or Dow flat NASDAQ up 100 we have been telling you man oh man after last week some really good improvement pretty quickly this week.

Boom, boom, boom. Earnings. The crappiest of earnings being bought. Today's market wrap is brought to by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators, go check it out.

Investment-dashmodels.com. The Dow was only up 38 and I got Newsfea. That was the high of the day. That was the best the Dow can do. NASDAQ up 110. That's it. That's what I want to say to you. That's what I want to say to you.

Dow only up 38, and it was in the, as I, just the last minutes it got into the green. NASDAQ up 110. And at the high of the day. Dow rallied up 40 points in the last two minutes to be up on the day. On top of that, all the crap on the bottom. crap and when I use the term crap nothing no indictment of these companies but they drop 50 60 70 80 90 percent they all went in downtrends bare markets flattened out and now turning up the worst are turning up the better have already turned up and keep going up the best getting going and now

blanket statement if price in the Dow can break above the last one two three four five weeks if the S&P price can break above the last

two and a half weeks the NASDAQ if price can break above the last two and a half weeks there comes your next leg to the upside and based on what I said to you at the outset,

we don't let our headlights see farther than they can go. I think there's a decent chance. We're going to get it. From there we'll see. Remember, when price moves above range, it must stick. This one's looking interesting. And today, interest rates were up and the dollar was up. Huh?

interest rates were up and the dollar was up. So just letting you know, got a pretty decent setup going into tomorrow and Friday. We're on holiday on Monday. We'll see what the market gives. Much more on Investors Edge up next. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-5559. That's 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Management.

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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confirm. used relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. and just so you know what we're saying to right now just has to do with how the markets are setting up how the markets are behaving

that's it remember we were able to nail the bare markets for you nail them because of the recognition of how bare markets act we have the opposite going on now and I must tell you another part of the equation,

and I want you to listen carefully, is the doubt. Remember, I just started the show getting these emails from people. By the way, sane people, these are not conspiracy theorists sending me these emails. These are people that are looking at the scheme of things. the market sees otherwise right now. When it sees otherwise again, we shall deal with it. Remember what we told you about bare market rules? Bare market rules.

What's the most important bare market rules? Well, let's go through a few. Number one, by history, past leaders of the prior bull will drop on average 70% check had a ton of them drop 70%. What else? Companies that lose money doesn't matter what they sell, what they do, what they say. Those stocks will be crushed. They've been destroyed. Those are a couple of things. And if they have no sales even more. In bare markets, good news is bad news and bad news is horrible news. means bull markets tend to have the opposite. In bull markets, you can report massive losses

and still go higher. Massive drops in earnings and still go higher. Why? Well, A, you may be far down in the move. That can be one of the reasons, but B, the conditions of the markets have changed. That's all. Let me give you one. And this is a, and this is a in real time. Roku. You know what Roku is. I have Roku at home. Roku stock, get this, in the last eight weeks has gone from 38 to 63. What is that about 60 some odd percent? From the lows. The company is losing money hand over fist. Revenues have decelerated big time. The stock has dropped from a high of 491 to 63 bucks at the close today. Way down!

The company just reported earnings. Sales growth none year over year. Worst quarter ever. Oh, but they beat the estimate. They lost $1.70 a share. Their worst quarter, I've seen, $1.70. Holy crap. Next quarter, they raised expectations to $700 million,

which will be a drop year over year from 733. The numbers are terrible. Oh, but they beat the lowered estimates. On $1.70 a share loss, which is about 200 and some odd million bucks in losses. If we were still in that bare phase, stock would be crushed. Stock's up seven bucks in the aftermarket, on top of being up almost seven today.

On horrible numbers, that's what we mean. That's what we mean. And that's why we think market probably is going to break above range and have another leg up and then we'll see what happens from there. We call it risk on versus risk off, risk off versus risk on. Right now, crap is not smelly in the market.

That's all. Now, keep in mind, if Roku opens up at 70 bucks, as of right now, that's what is in the aftermarket. It's still down from 490. And maybe it's just a matter of, hey, you went from 490 down to 38, too much. Maybe that's what's going on. I don't know.

Our job, just read this bad boy and when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small and when right, hopefully let them run as far as they want to go. That's it. So just giving you a nice little explanation of the market here. And very simply, the Dow would have to jump 34342 and then 34712. The S&P would have to jump 4195. The NASDAQ would have to jump 12269. The NASDAQ 100. Let's call it 12880.

And the SOX, the semiconductors, 3168. A break above those levels. Well, you know what we said. The Russell would have to go above 2007. That's the Russell 2000. There's your thought process in a nutshell on a general basis. I looked at Roku numbers. I said, man, this stock should be bound $25.

No, it's up and up a total of $14 for the day, which is about 22% with the aftermarket. So just letting you know. And you have other aftermarket Cisco systems, you know dead stock from the 90s, just so you know, Cisco systems in the Dow, close at 48 today. On the month of March 2000, it was $82. So it's still down, what, about 40% from the year 2000,

and it's in the Dow, doofuses. Anyway, that stock is up $3.5 bucks in the aftermarket. Won't affect the Dow, but it doesn't hurt the NASDAQ types. And as I go through the reaction to earning, reactions are good. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you

one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Yo, if things change. If. things change but we'll let you know remember you know what I do for a living I I

scan and watch a moving target that's what I do for a living I scan I watch I watch I deal with moving targets that's what I do and there's thousands and thousands of them there's 200 sectors and sub sectors countries, commodities, bond markets with yields of different maturities, charlatans and con artists and tout artists. You know what my favorite thing to watch right now is people that have been telling you to buy stocks all the way down, just buy it, buy. I'm buying them.

I'm buying them. I'm buying them. I'm buying them. And we're talking about stocks that went down like a Roku. And now they're rallying and they're going on TV and patting themselves on the back. I can't tell you how nauseating that is for me who got out near the highs and didn't ride this down. These cretons, these miscreants, these charlatans. And they get away with it.

And unfortunately, people are going to think there's some geniuses. And the next bear market, they're going to lose their arse and then wonder why. I can't tell you how much that. I'm not going to use the word today. I watched a strategist today patting himself on the back. He crushed people last year. Crushed. I would have been in hiding.

It's just like this. arc fund lady going on to, by the way, the arc funds are acting very well right now. Had a very good day today. Got back some of what it lost last week. The arc funds has gone from 2940 to 43, 22 in eight weeks. One, two, three, four, five, seven weeks. What is that, 40 percent? But it's still down 70 percent from two years ago.

and she's out there hymn and hoaring like she's Warren Buffett I can't begin to tell you that is why I beg of you every one of you every one of you know who you're dealing with and get the facts you hope things change in different cycles and people would get a little bit of what you would call humble pie

Nope Hey I'm down 70% from the last two years But I'm up 40% in the last seven weeks Look at me You know what words I'd be using To talk to them I can't say them on radio Ain't happy birthday I just saw a few charlatans today

Unbelievable Taking credit for their stocks moving up Wow look at me And they're still down And I know it They're still down 50 and 60%. It really sucks my industry. Not all of it.

Some of it. I saw that today and I saw a bunch. And usually I don't, I turn down the sound. I don't want to hear anybody's opinion on the markets. I've told you that except for a select few. But in the recent past, I want to just see what some of them are crowing. And man, oh man. Anyway, well, let's pass up on that.

Going back, I have no clue what Tamara brings in the market. It's just set up to move higher. It's all I can tell you. And as I have said to you, it's going to be tough to take this market down with how good the underlying internals and technicals are versus in the rallies when we're in the bare phase. They would top and immediately get crushed. Now it's pullbacks. I got to tell you last week, man, I made a cardinal sin. Didn't hurt me. Not going to change my world. It's small potatoes. The whole idea behind these markets, sell up, buy down. I sold down just a little bit last week.

Not going to affect me much. I buy right back, though. Look at that. I told you what I did stupid last week. What a concept. not those people so let me big picture again Dow only up 38 and they got it all in the last minute NASDAQ up 110 more crappy earnings after the close and the reactions good though I have a couple of stocks down in the aftermarket I must say Shopify's down four bucks synopsis is down 15 that's been a stronger name down 19

ring central another one down but Cisco Roku and we're pretty much past a lot of earnings there'll be more coming out I'm really interested in seeing crocs tomorrow I've held off on buying crocs because I'm an idiot

but I couldn't buy it in the last two weeks because it's getting close to earnings interested to see it's been strong and usually when something's strong usually something good may be going on we'll see tomorrow I also have to add also Apple looks like it's going to make another leg up here. Just letting you know. On earnings down 10% revenues down 5.

It's close. That's 11% of the NASDAQ 100. You already know about Tesla. That keeps moving. But it's going to right around here it's going to hit some torture. What's torture? 200-day moving average. Probably going to get a wall.

And then you got earnings, analog devices, gaps up to a breakout today on 133% better volume. Earnings. AirB. Breaks out of eight-month range. 472% better volume. How about Martin Marietta materials? Ready for this one? Worst earnings report I've seen. Sales down 1% earnings down 3%, up 7% today.

breaks above about eight-month range. Still got plenty of work to do. That's what we're seeing right now. Trade Desk, another stock that's been destroyed. Still down 50% from the highs almost. That was up 32% today, up 16 to 66. On guess what? Minus 10% earnings.

Their worst earnings report ever. What I say about this market. It's a different market. And the change didn't come at the index low in October. Change came January 6th when the NASDAQ stopped the ick and bottom. That was the day. I should have gone 200% invested that day and I knew it. But you have to be careful in these markets. They've been tricky as all heck. We're coming out of a bear. And we do know another thing. If this is a bullish phase of time and price, there's going to be plenty to do.

So good day. Pay no attention to the Dow. Zero attention to the Dow. Risk on this second. And I will repeat, if things change will let you know, you really can't hide bull and bear markets. That's all.

Up next. Oh, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. Bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two. Ready go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. Hope you're having a good day. In the news, I just want to repeat, we really need better leaders in this country.

I sure hope the next president is better than this one or the last one. And the last one. And the last one. They're just all terrible. They're debt-lating lying sacks, every one of them. And this guy here is in that, he's like he has anything to do with the economy. He's, oh, look what I've done.

Remember what we've told you, if Republican or Democratic president? The economy is the 200 million people that go to work every day. Well, I think it's 160. Let's use whatever. 160 to 180 million people that go to work every day, trying to do better for themselves and their family, trying to grow, trying to reach upward mobility. that's what that's the economy the creations the inventions the moving onward and upward the new medical

breakthroughs technological breakthroughs what the hell was chat gbt before i didn't hear i didn't know what the hell that was a month ago this weekend is a three-day weekend i'm spending three hours on chat gbt i think that's what a gpt i just want to figure it out see what the heck it is how big it is i want to know why symbol a i is going up even though their numbers stink. Anyway, the dufus in the White House is finally going to tell us about China, putting drones over the country and letting it fly over the country. Yet the media is pissed off at Republicans for being mad.

Who's this doofus on MSNBC? Joe Scarbo, anybody ever watch him? I don't watch any of them either way. I'm reading he's pissed off at the Republicans because of the China. What? as an American I want to ask how to hell do you let a communist

country that wants to invade Taiwan has a million Uyghurs in encampments in China represses and depresses people and puts them in holding cells if they say anything about the government sending drones

over the whole freaking country and you don't even know what's in it and don't complain some of these pundits It's just absolutely suck because they're such one-sided hacks. It's amazing to watch. You know our motto, all these politicians suck. They don't do anything for us.

The heck do they do for us? 32 trillion of debt, that's what they've done for us. Inflation, that's what they've done for us. Stole all the money out of Social Security, that's what they've done for us. and now they're mad when somebody wants to look at Social Security. Isn't that amazing? They create this blob, this gargantuan Ponzi scheme, they steal all the money,

and when you finally have some politicians saying, we've got to look at this, they're the bad people. What? The good people are the ones that see it for what it is. It's running out of money because they stole it all, and there used to be 16 workers for every retiree, announced out to like one and a half. And you know, our

Social Security taxes up to what? Like, it's now up to 160,000 you make? It used to be like nothing. They have to keep raising it to cover their asses. In order to pay us to keep getting votes. It's the greatest scheme in history.

And boy, are they good marketing and they have these morons in the media helping them. Just remember something. That's your money. Government isn't given you anything. It's the money that was taken out of your paycheck when you're retired. They're trying to make you believe they're giving you something. Entitlement. It's not entitlement. It was taken out of your paycheck. Entitlement connotates their given you. They're being so generous. It's your money. Anyway, that was in the news today Because the left is pissed off at Rick Scott

From Florida Because he wants to look at it What the horror of it In the news, Subway confirms it's seeking buyers I don't know about you But I haven't been to a subway in like eight years Do you know why? I went into a subway about eight years ago

I used to love their What did they call it the sweet onion terriaki chicken subs and I walked in the tuna looked like it was nine days old it was dirty in there it was dingy it was gross and I just said because of this

I ain't getting it anymore I'm done and I know that's not everything but man they gotta work things out over there I know it's been better and they got some good advertising with some of the basketball players but they're looking to sell I wonder to who I had to be like an equity firm.

Would a restaurant, yeah, I guess a restaurant chain can buy them out and expand and maybe do better. Anyway, that's the subway thing today. That was in the news. But overall,

the bigger stories for me, I hate using the word sweet spot. If the indices can break above the range of the last few weeks, we're getting another leg up and it looks like there's that shot. Let me tell you the other things

that's going on. Johnson and Johnson, breaking down. Staples not acting well. Not the company but consumer staples. Markets working off of something much different than people think. And a lot of the emails I told you about is basically on the economy and how bad it is, but I got to tell you something, I don't think the market would be doing this.

And by the way, the French market, the United Kingdom, I think the German Dax is close. Yearly highs, almost all-time highs. I'm sorry. happen in bearish phases it doesn't work that way and you know me i'm looking for problems i'm always on the lookout what can go wrong and right now another day we finished at the highs of the day and another day the market was much better than the down again we have no clue what tomorrow brings we'll be ready you have a great evening drive carefully tomorrow be on with uh varnie you know company. My good friend Ashley Webster's in for him in the 9 o'clock hour, Fox Business Network,

and until tomorrow, have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. Tell me you love them. Give your pet a big hug too. They'll all feel better. I promise you. Until tomorrow, sweet dreams all. Thanks for joining us. Always honored by your presence. Be well. Bye bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary CultBomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.