Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - COMMODITIES [04.03.2024]

Episode Date: April 3, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is April 3rd.

It's Wednesday. It's 2024. Hope you're having a good day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on you and everything that affects you. whether it's the markets, the economy, your jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficits, spending, scams, shams, corruption, and there's a lot of it.

You name it, we cover it. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, go to X put our name in. And of course,

if you're going to email us just being nice. We'll also post everything on podcast apps. Ladies and gentlemen, when we post the show to GaryK.com, we put a title to each show. And we're just going to put one word title to the show today, and that is commodities. And we've been talking about how themes. And you never know how they're going to play out. You never know how fast, you never know how strong, you never know how persistent, you just look for themes. So we're going to talk commodities out of the box. Now we can sit here and say that's good or bad. Commodities go up. Hey, the cost goes up for the commodities. I don't know if you've seen the price, the stock price of Hershey's. It's crashed.

Why, the price of Coco has moonshot, Eiffel Tower. And now we're seeing it in other areas. And it's surprising even us that about four weeks ago, I'm going to get about the right time. The oils. It was around, we'll call it first week in March, We simply said to you about the last week in February 1st week in March with the oils. We said to you, we have been on the void for the oils for the better part of whatever amount of time we went through.

And it was a long period of time. And we said to you, they may be emerging. oil prices may be emerging. We said to you, and if they do emerge from here, this is how it's supposed to happen. In other words, it started to follow the roadmap going from bearish phase to potentially a bullish phase. And how do we know that? Again, the roadmap. You're trading below the 50-day market. You're trading below the 50-day moving average as the moving average is heading south and every time you rally up into the moving average you fail but then finally you get above it and instead of breaking back below it you stick and then

you start the stair steps up so we said to you at the beginning of march just letting you know they may be emerging it's not sitting here saying oh oils have bottomed oh oh Oh, it's bottomed. Oh, it's bottomed. It's the potential for it to bottom. Again, you have to follow a roadmap, and then we use the line, okay, we're going to let some cards come out of the deck. Oils. For lack of a better way of describing it, go draw a bowl. Just draw a bowl. That's what they've done. and on the right side of the bowl, instead of making it equal to the left side, just make it higher. Without really any stops. And normally, when you are emerging and you're getting going, what you'll do is you'll stair step up.

You could go up three steps, pull back one. Go up two steps, pull back one, not the oils. They have just been on what we call. persistent persistence so just letting you know remain in play oil prices were up moderately today but oil stocks had another good day the oil explorers broke above recent highs of september and october a bowl the x le did that a few days ago a bowl and even the weaker the oh iH services getting there If you look at the new yearly high list now, a bunch of oil names. Now, we got that.

If you're not in the oils, best advice, catch them on constructive pullbacks. Odds favor, we have a meaningful move going, but they are now stretched and extended to the upside from this move. Will they pull them back? Beats the hell out of me. Don't know. But just letting you know that thought process that they may be emerging. Next. Gold.

For months, if not longer, we were telling you how gold, multi-year trading range, that every time it would go to the highs, it would be turned back. On March 1st, we told you gold looked like it was ready to break out. It broke out the next day, the fourth, and has not turned back. The subsequent play was just five days ago, and we said the secondary buypoints are usually pretty darn strong. The GLD initially 1.95, the next one, around 204-205. In four days, almost 2.13 on the GLD were giving you the ETF.

And you had another strong day today. On top of that, the gold miners, which have just been underperforming for years, coming on. Now, a lot of them are two and three and four and five dollars. We're just letting you know they're coming on. And they broke above pretty good eight, nine month range in the last couple of days any pullbacks constructive wise gold we told you about copper COPX four days ago broke above 42 and a half it's only 44 40 not a big move but it's broke out to the upside and a few copper names FCX SCCO on the move

Silver. SLV. Yesterday, we told you about to break out today, up three and change percent, broke out one year. So silver, do I need to go further? I think you're catching my drift. It's a commodities market right now, and we'll tell you, as we always do, we have no idea how long it lasts. we have no idea how far it goes. We do not know if it stops tomorrow. Odds favor, it doesn't stop tomorrow.

Which has us then asking a question of, hmm, you got these people at the Fed telling us inflations in check, but the Commodity Research Bureau Index, the CRB Index of 19 commodities, is it a yearly high, I believe, right around it and kind of sort of multi-year oil going topside gold silver copper hmm hmm HM M M with apostrophes after it excuse me exclamation points remember nothing personal

they don't know what the hell they're doing at the central bank they're misfits they're adults. They only cause problems. The easiest call in history was inflation, and they missed the whole freaking thing, and just playing catch-up. And now we're being told everything's a-okay again. Look at us.

Huh. So we'll be watching. And you know what else? Airlines and cruise lines. What does that mean if oil prices? keep going up. Just some food. We already know what Hershey's is done

with the soaring cocoa prices. By the way, go just Google the words cocoa price chart. Amazing. Up next. We'll stay with this. And much more. I'm Gary.

This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum. Hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living. specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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The number to call is 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 8-8-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Yeah, CRB Index is

back near the highs of June of 22. And, oh yeah, it is getting towards the highs of 2011. And of course, the big spike in 2008 were not there yet. Just letting you know.

And in the CRB index, you got oil, natural gas, gold, silver, copper, soybeans, wheat, coal, steel, iron ore, lumber. I'm just looking through the whole thing. And just try to add one plus one. Hmm. Hmm. If oil prices keep going up and the airlines aren't hedged, oh, that's going to eat into profits. If oil prices go up and the cruise lines aren't hedged, oh, that's going to eat into profits.

If you are a Uber driver, that's going to eat into your profits. So we'll keep that in mind. We'll keep it in our file manager and just letting you know, there's a move of foot. At this juncture, all constructive pullbacks look viable. define constructive gary a calm quiet if you're to chart it after a move up it should look like from um 10 to 11 p.m. down to 5 p.m. on a little watch little northwest to southeast that look and it's too early to tell

but another day today where dang a move afoot and where it stops I don't know when it stops I don't know we freely tell you when there is a move going on

we never know I know you can turn on the tube and somebody says my target for so-and-so at the end of the year is so and so. With all due respect, every one of that is bull crap. They don't know.

It's just yapping away. Why? Because things change. Earnings, sales, earnings reports, interest rates, clowns in the White House, clowns in the Senate in the House, elections, war. You don't know. our job is to just stick with the stick and close our eyes, hold our nose, and pray. Now tell you about today, without even given the indices, as of yet, we mentioned commodities.

Not a bad day for the recently nascent pullback in growth arena, tech arena, not all, but some. And when we say to you, hey, just let you know, this, that, and the other thing held some important support levels. What it means is, imagine if a stock for six months could not break above $100. Every time it hit 100 could not get through. And then it rallies to 110. And then the market weakens and pulls back, but holds that 100. support level or a stock's rising the 50 day moving average going along with it and the stock pulls back and goes right to the 50 day moving average almost to the penny and rallies off of it support levels or the other one which makes it stronger the 21 day move in average some people use the 20 doesn't matter actually i like the 21 don't ask me why it's just the way you're it is. So we saw some of that today. And we also, and we really haven't seen it recently,

some oomph. Got some oomph today. Dell, Micron, got some umph. Volume. Some umph. Got some umph. I must tell you, one of the groups I have not been in is the building slash construction group on names you've probably never heard of because some I haven't heard of. They pulled back and they got going again today. And I'm pretty darn sure that has everything to do with the gargantuan, unimaginable amounts of government money being spent in that construction area, just putting us into monstrous debt, brought to you by the Marxist at the White House. Oh, Gary, but he's helping with infrastructure.

Yeah, sure. Right. Anyway, so you had that also today. Not everything, but some good stuff. Let me repeat. Not everything, but some good stuff. And we're going to enter earnings in the next couple of weeks. I think late next week we'll get a few big financials, which have acted pretty darn well.

The big banks, not the regionals. Regional's still weak, though some are better than the others. But let me repeat, some decent support levels held today. We're also continuing to get everything AI. More AI. More AI. Google, after the close announces or put it out there that they're considering charging for AI search. So the stock's up 1% in the market.

the aftermarket. Yeah, great, okay. AI search. Okay, do. I'm not going to say it's overdone, but we'll see. So we start you out commodities. Some decent holds. Facebook, real good hold at 480. Hasn't broken out, range bound, but a good hold at support. Dell off the 21 day and really popped on volume today. There's talk of AI there. Broadcom may be setting up again. Needs to tighten up. Netflix does a little dance back up today. Again, not everything, but some.

And you don't need many. Qualcomm, off the 21-day moving average, AI. Spotify announces they're going to raise prices. Stock goes up 7% today. Nothing like raising prices. So good stuff. Not everything, but good stuff. Up next, we'll give the final numbers, news of the day, whatever else today.

I'm Gary. This is the one, the only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach

ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication, we deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,

a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using biz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Cashflow crunch. OnDak's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips,

manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. Ondek does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, welcome once again to Investors Edge.

got to tell you the Dow had hit i believe 39 305 early in the day and dropped 300 points into the three o'clock hour and then rallied back up 100 still finished down 43 could have been worse could have been much better s and p up 5 nasdaq up 37 nasdaq 100 up 38 i can tell you the nasdaq at one time today was up about 110 and then when they trashed the market it was around 315 it bounced back and finished up 37 it was only up 7 at around 315 and I'm looking for was there any news around 315 that just jam the market down I really didn't see anything I guess there was just a little bit of selling but overall as you know we've been talking about pay and pullback with the growth there was some things that lit up today and we'll see if they stay up simple as that and if more names show up terrific if more names break not so terrific but we start with the commodity side and we'll see where it decides to take us and on the commodity side Caterpillar was up 11

Caterpillar somewhat commodity-based mining equipment and things like that. So scanning will be a lot more fun tonight. It's been kind of sort of on the boring side as of recent. What else? Marijuana, Florida, Florida. My state. My state is now. allowing marijuana vote on the ballot.

So we had some nice moves in Marijuana. You know, as we said, tobacco bad, but smoke the evil weed. And as I've said to, you walk through Manhattan right now, I call it the big bong hit. Any time of the day or night, morning, you walk any street. it is Stankowitz and there's got to be a bull market in Doritos and Taco Bell in Manhattan right now because man oh man I don't understand it the legalization well it's the taxes got to get the money in case you don't know Manhattan New York City screwed up the whole legalization there or the trying to because they're in an insincentia. insane asylum in Manhattan.

They don't know what the hell they're doing. And as we say to you, they're lucky. The politicians in Manhattan, the politicians in Oakland, California, Sanfran, they're lucky. They're lucky anybody stays. The disrespect is beyond the beyond. By the way, Oakland, have you read about Oakland? it's stunning you're right about

Portland they're undoing their stupidity on hey you want to shoot up some heroin on the street go ahead they're undoing it oh you want to just

snort the stuff on the street go ahead but New York City they've got this assembly guy who the speaker of the assembly will not let them change the bail laws. He says putting people in jail that commit crimes, that doesn't help. What happened to penalizing crimes? I hate using the word, but I must. I have never seen more schmucks in my life running certain cities, counties, and states and country like we've never

seen. There's a teacher at a lefty school, a gay teacher that says it is homophobic. It's homophobic if you say Hamas is mean to gays in Gaza. Go look at the video. This is a teacher. and I believe she's like a commissioner too. There are not enough rubber rooms and straight jackets for some of these people. You say, what does that have to do with the markets and my money? Well, all these people are part of the $35 trillion of debt, going to $50, our first trillion plus going towards interest. And I can go on and on.

I don't know if we need to do those numbers today. we've been going over that big time recently. So just letting you know, I started out by talking the weed. It just has to do with the fact of it's, I don't know where we're going, kids. I have no idea where we're going. Simple as that. What else? I mentioned the Caterpillar.

I did the commodities. I talked about better action in some of these names. Dell computer, Micron. Mike Ryan looks like the strongest semiconductor right now. Just letting you know, very extended right here. Netflix got a little juice today, even though I got to get them on the phone because they're charging me too much. Just better tone, and we haven't seen that as of late.

Yields were up markedly early, then finished down. Mr. Bubble spoke today, said absolutely nothing, but he still can move markets here and there for a little bit of time. and let me repeat, they don't know what they're doing, they're not in control, they're not the economy, they don't affect squat, only when they print money do they affect things, it will not matter if they low rates a quarter, low rates a half, we are the economy, we're just their marks. And that goes for the Treasury Secretary. Oh my goodness gracious, the Treasury Secretary, what a Marxist control freak adult. just another. And the major indices just continue to drift

along the all-important moving average, my green line on my chart. Whether it's the SPY, well, the QQQ's flatlining a little bit here. That Apple and Tesla not helping that at this juncture. and Apple continues with some issues.

iPhone in China, shipments in the country fell 33% in February after falling 39% in January, the iPhone. And remember what we said. I measure Apple based on whether I need to change my phone to the next phone. I used to get the new phone every time, I haven't done it on three phones.

And I think a lot of people starting to think my way because they're not real. What else are they going to add to the phones? And they already had to pay a big amount of money on batteries. So just letting you know Apple remains relatively weak. It's under 170 now. It's only down about 15% from the highs, but versus not very good.

And Tesla. deliveries way under expectation. I think Tesla's hoping for the next generation of electric vehicles. I saw Pete Buttigieg on TV talking about EVs and blah blah blah blah blah blah. My message to Mayor Pete or Secretary Pete now, leave us to hell alone and stop force and crap down our throats. they actually think they can control this and they're not going to be able to

just letting you know EV is one of the worst acting groups if not the worst acting group in the market and then don't ask me what happened Ulta Salon down 80 bucks today they updated numbers which means something called elf

beauty down 12% today because It's a brand and maybe they're at Alta and beats the hell out of me. So a little bit of trouble there. Dang. I've never been in an Alta salon. Anybody ever been in there? Any good?

What is it? It's hair cosmetics. Do they do massages there? I don't even know. Not a good day. Up next. This, that, and the other thing. Or whatever else.

I'm Gary. This is the one. only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get to a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah,

you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours.

The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches, and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if biz is right for you. Learn more at viz.com. Cash flow crunch. OnDek's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory,

or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by on deck or

Celtic Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Hey, in the news. And ladies and gentlemen, we do this news that has everything to do. It may not be, oh, that's not stock market, but it has everything to do with what's going on there and where we're going. Los Angeles luxury house sales have plummeted 70% in the first year since its mansion tax was

brought in. A mansion tax was launched April of 2023. A 4% tax on all homes, $5 million in Remember, what these Marxists control freaks do, they attack the wealthy because they try to make you believe if you are poor and middle class and not where you want to be, it's because the wealthy are screwing you. That's the con. And what they do is, well, look what we're going to do to the wealthy. So they put on a 4% tax on homes. in LA over 5 million bucks. Don't worry, we're only going after the rich. Those house sales have dropped 68%.

And they said they had a stated goal of how much it would raise because of this tax. They have raised 22% of the stated goal. You got that? Only 166 homes in the year was sold above that price. The year before 366. everybody in the industry said it was a stupid sham and what people are doing are buying outside those city limits now we don't make this up and when you sell another five and a half percent they're insane and by the way we worry because this is proliferating it's not just l a lay they want a wealth tax if you exit you're still going to pay? These people have not

I don't know how they're getting away with some of their crap. Speaking of crap, do you know what we're finding out now? Joe Biden is sending migrants across the country without telling the governors or the mayors

of the states and the cities to U.S. airports in the dark of night and not telling anybody who runs these cities and states, whether these people are good or bad. 326,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela arrived in Florida since January of 23.

And DeSanta says, we're done. Miami got 326,000. I don't think Joe Biden cares about your safety. He's insane. And let me repeat again, this is important. I'd say it to his face. I'd have no problem saying everything to his face. What the hell is a matter with you?

Oh, and by the way, you cut the deficit? Can you show me? Anyway, you got my point. We're very careful with our words here, and we know there's a lot of hyperbole out there from political pundits and figures and things like that. If I didn't know better, this dude is just trying to destroy.

destroy the fabric of this country. Borders and massive debt and deficits and size of government and reach of government. The interest cost on the U.S. government debt is now projected this year to be $1.6 trillion. That was the year 2000. That was the whole budget. it's insane these numbers. I can't believe I can even utter these words on these numbers. It's mind-boggling these numbers.

You know what we think the ultimate outcome is? The ultimate outcome ain't here just yet. And by the way, on the mansion tax, the new numbers came out. The top 1% of income earners made 26%. of total income. In the last year, the numbers. They paid 46% of the income taxes. The bottom 50% of income earners

made 10% of total income and paid only 2% income taxes. So when Biden tells you the wealthy are paying less than the teachers, just another gargantuan Marxist lie. And they're very good at it. and boy I wish we had somebody else running against him. Nothing personal.

Trump has some great golf courses. He ain't the guy. But we'll grin and bear it. And wish him well if he does win the election. Simple as that and hope he does great things. That's all we can do. And that is our little news of the day. And again, we wish we had better things to tell you what's emanating out of there.

It's an insane asylum. Imagine if they were actually working for us and not against. They are an insane asylum, and it's getting worse by the day. The blob is getting bigger. But you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home. Do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. My father's feeling much better. He's still in the hospital, though. Tomorrow morning I'll be with on with Varney and company. from remote, 10 a.m. Fox Business Network, don't miss that. And again, ladies and gentlemen, thanks for your kind words and your well wishes. Have a great evening. Thanks for joining. Peace out. Take care. Good night.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

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