Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Condolences & Week Ahead [08.25.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: August 25, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/https://garykaltbaum.com/our-father-herbert-kaltbaum/

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick-up

or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan, in for Gary Kay, who's out not just today, but he's going to be out for the next few days.

Before today's Monday, August 25th, 2025. I'll come back to why Gary's out in a minute here. But I just want to let you know that we have a, Great show for you tonight. I want to thank you for being here as always. And now for the news. So Gary's father passed away Sunday morning in his sleep. Interestingly enough, Gary woke up at 3 a.m.

And that's right around the time when his father passed away. And they weren't in the same state even. So he's dealing with that. Our deepest condolences, love to the family. I mean, thousands and thousands, I think over 60,000 people have reached out to Gary so far, interacted in some way, shape or form. I mean, just, there's a great post Gary wrote on GaryK.com, titled Our Father, Herbert Kelpaw, and he goes into it.

He passed away almost at 94 years old, and it was a great life. And he spoke about how his mother passed away last Thanksgiving, and he shares his thoughts. And it's really, really, really powerful. So deepest condolences to Gary and his family, I'll be here for the next few days. And I did want to share that. So if you do want to reach out to Gary, send your love or reach out in any way, shape, or form, you can do that on GaryK.com. Okay. So a few highlights here that we'd like to discuss.

Oh, just some notes. All right. As you know, this is a show about you and your money and all of the points in between. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get the show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com, listen live or archive. We are live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern. Also at GaryK.com, you can follow Gary on X, formerly known. his Twitter by just pressing the button. You can subscribe to get Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox. Actually, if you're on that list, you'll get the email, or the, not the email,

but the message email to you that Gary wrote about his father, all for free on GaryK.com. And then you can email Gary, ask about his money management services, interact with him, share your condolences, anything you want to do, all available for free on GaryK.com. If you want more, there are people out there that like to go deeper and like to get Gary's thoughts and play by play about the market, his leading stocks, his actionable ideas, get daily webcasts from Gary about the market. You can get that all available at convictionleaders.com. Once again, that's available at convictionleaders.com. So a few thoughts here that I want to share with you right at the top. This is going to be a week ahead program for today. I want to really put

the context of the market where we are, where we came from. And set the stage for what to expect going forward. And then, you know, talk about some, some evergreen timeless topics, which is some of my favorite stuff to discuss. So a few big headlines that I want to share. Friday, as you know, Gary mentioned that the Fed hinted that they're going to begin cutting rates. The Fed is data dependent.

We know that. And the Fed's made it very clear that it's going to wait for data to change. So, you know, I get asked a lot. from investors in the media and different folks about, oh, what do you think about the Fed, this, that, and the other thing. And when I spoke to you last time I was on the show, I spoke about the powerful concept or exercise that I do of pretending like I'm in the room.

So if I was Powell, what would I do based on the data? If I'm sitting on a big investment firm managing hundreds of billions of dollars, what would I be doing with the data? So on and so forth. like if enter any major great investor, if Paul Tudor Jones was my boss or partner, you know, and I have to report to him or Steve Cohen, the guy who just bought the Mets or whoever, right, even Gary. I'm like, okay, what do I have to do to interpret that data and then make intelligent decisions

based on the data? So the feds made it very clear for years. They're data dependent. All right. What does that mean? They're going to wait, or the Fed's going to wait for data to justify or determine. in their next action. So let's look, peel back the onion.

You can take all the noise out. What's the Fed's mandate? Well, Congress gave the Fed a dual mandate. Number one, keep unemployment lower, make sure jobs are being created every month. Number two, make sure inflation stays around 2%. Well, okay. For years now, inflation's been a problem.

It's been over 2%. Actually, even going back before COVID, inflation was a problem because it was under 2% for a lot. long time, even though the Fed printed gobs and gobs of money. And the side effect of printing money is inflation, but inflation wasn't happening for a long time. And then all of a sudden, COVID hit supply chain shocks and the Fed just went crazy printing money and be bazookas and government was giving people checks. I mean, it just went bonkers. And then boom, lo and behold, inflation kicks in. And now we have a period of high inflation over the last, you know, several years.

Okay, great. So the Fed started raising rates. They took rates from zero after COVID. They printed of money. They started raising rates, okay, great, all the way up for a few years. And then they stopped raising rates. And inflation for the last year and change, a year and a half or so, has been really coming down a little bit, still above 2%, but coming down. Meanwhile, the economic environment, specifically the employment situation, the jobs situation has been strong all year, this year. And inflation has been above 2%. So, from Powell's point of view and the other Fed governors and voting officials, they said, eh, we're not ready to cut rates yet because the economy's strong. And if we cut rates now,

it's going to stimulate the economy, it's going to create more inflation. And inflation is already above 2%. So why would we cut rates? That's when Powell's stance, more or less. I'm simplifying it just to illustrate the point for you, but that's more or less where the Fed's been. Well, what changed? In August, we saw the jobs report come out weaker than expected. and the last two jobs reports were revised sharply lower. That's big. Why? Because when you have a situation where the Fed says, oh, you know what, we're going to change our stance because the data has changed.

Notice they're data dependent, right? Inflation CPI, the consumer price index came in weaker than expected this month. And the jobs report was weaker than expected. Well, if inflation's coming down and the jobs report is getting weaker, okay, they want to get ahead of it, there's room to cut rates. Now, how much they cut, how aggressive they cut, you know, that's open to interpretation. But what happened on Friday, something changed. And that's a very strong rally in lots of areas of the market that have previously been ignored or left for dead, meaning they just haven't participated. The Russell 2000. It's

2,000 stocks. IWM is a ticker there. Mid-cap, the S&P 400, not the 500, but the 400, the mid-cap stocks, M-D-Y, similar situation. The NASDAQ-100, the QQQ, I think it's up double digits this year, about 11, 12%, somewhere in that range, over 10%. The Russell 2000 was flat for most of the year. And now it's up just a few, you know, single-digit percentage points for the year. Same with the mid-caps. Meanwhile, the S&P's up on S&P 500, the SPY is up almost 10% for the year, thereabouts. And the NASDAQ's up over 10% for the year, the NASDAQ 100. So clear outperformance in the big cap tech stocks, which reside in the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500, but they don't reside the big cap tech in the small cap indices, right? Their big cap, small cap. It's simple. So we've seen lagging lots of areas

of the market, 2,000 stocks in the Russell, 400 in the S&P 400. That's 2,400 stocks that really have been lagging. Not every single one of them, but I'm just speaking in generalities here, have lagged. While the NASDAQ 100, only 100 stocks or thereabouts, and the S&P 500 have outperformed. Well, all right, now we're seeing on Friday, and then Mark was quiet on Monday, a pretty, you know, a changing of complexion like Gary would say. Changing of the guard, you know, things have shifted a little bit, meaning a lot of the dormant areas in the market began. to rally and rally strong this year, which is very, very encouraging. Why? Because more areas that work, you know, strength begets strength, is good for the market,

because that means more money is flowing into stocks. More money flows into stocks. What happens? Hopefully over time, higher prices. So that's more or less how the market, you know, what's been, what happened on Friday of last week and then into this week, so far it's just one day. it's a little quiet great why is it quiet we have a busy week in front of us sometimes it's just that simple like you don't have to overthink it it's really that simple so remember the fed is data dependent so incoming data is going to matter why because that's going to impact what the fed's going to do simple so when you have economic data coming out we can week out, week in, week out, the Fed's going to look at that data.

New home sales. Good, bad, weak, strong. Keep it simple. You can overcomplicate it, but I like to keep things real simple. Inflation data later this week. I'll get to the PCE later. Again, good, bad. And all the other data points to Q2 GDP's coming out, the second revision of it,

for the second quarter for GDP. We'll see that later this week. Your adorable goods, I believe, coming out this week as well. So we have more economic data coming out. The Fed's going to interpret all of that and say, hey, are we still on track for rate cuts? And not just cutting the rates, but how much do we cut the rates? And that's going to be a big deal, folks. Are we cutting rates by a quarter point?

Are we going to get aggressive and go half point? And then what happens to the next meeting? Another half or a quarter? So all of that depends on the incoming data. Plus, we have earnings and DaVidia and lots of other stocks. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarahan. This is the one and only Investors Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financials.

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At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how, do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines.

Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.

That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to feature. fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire,

APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Take a few minutes and speak about Gary's father for a minute in case you're just joining us.

We missed any part of the show. You can go to GaryK.com. Pause, rewind, fast forward. Listen at your convenience 24. I had the pleasure of meeting Gary's father about 25 years ago, maybe even 26 years ago now, for the first time. I met him several times over the years, over the decades. And great man. Just great man.

And funny, great personality. He likes the Knicks. I like the Knicks. He likes the Giants. I like the Giants. We had a lot in common. Even though I'm not a big quote unquote sports guy. But in his presence, you could just feel the room.

He was one of those people just very loved, right? Gary, his kids, family, people would just interact with a person. And some people, they have charisma, they have personality, they have an essence or a presence about them. And both of Gary's parents did. His mom was super loving. I had the pleasure of meeting her several times as well. Super warm. Super loving.

And Gary's father, same thing. interacted, have great conversations, was well-versed, could speak about any topic, really, and the conversation would just flow. So again, deepest condolences, nothing but all the love in the world to Gary and his family. And taking a minute here just to talk about the importance and the power of life and the pleasure that life can give us when we decide, you know, on my desktop on my computer on my screen, I have a saying it says happiness is a choice. And I'm really big with the personal development stuff. I know I don't know. So I've got one job that's learned. That's it. That's been the story of my life since day one. And as I go

through life, I approach it with a lot of humility. I don't know what I need to do to become a multi-billionaire. Someone does. Let me go model that success. Actually, I learned this from Gary back in 98, 99, listening to this very show. He had a great line where he's mentioned many, many times over the years of modeling success and having the yellow brick road like Wizard of Oz. Figure out where you want to go. Set goals for yourself. And then what he would say was create that yellow brick road.

How am I going to accomplish that goal? Whatever that goal is. It could be losing weight. It could be living healthier, being lifting weights. It could be making more money. It could be finding a spouse. improving your relationships, improving your mental health, your physical health, whatever the goal is. Have a goal.

I always joke around with people and say, okay, imagine there's two people here. One person is in New York, and they're both in New York. One person has a clear plan. I'm going to California. That person knows they have to go west. Very clear. How they get there, they could decide. They could take an airplane.

They could walk. They could hitchhike. They could take the bus. They could take whatever. They could drive, ride a bike, whatever they want to do, right? Helicopter, it doesn't matter. Whatever. Cross off all the bad ones and then pick the highest ROI one, the best one for them,

and then they make a decision to go forward. They have a path. The other person is standing there just screaming, saying, I can't stand it here, I hate it here, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. No destination in mind and no path to get there. Who do you think is going to accomplish their goals faster and or better? The person with a destination and, in other words, with a goal and with a clear path to get there, or the person just standing there screaming, I don't like this, I don't like this, I don't like this.

Again, happiness is a choice. Choosing to be happy, irrespective of what happens to you, it's a superpower. I can tell you from experience. And life is precious. It really, really is. People take for, you know, granted, oh, I wake up today. okay, Groundhog Day, tomorrow, wake up again,

and then boom, they blink their eyes and, you know, decade goes by or 20 years or 50 years go by, whatever it is, right? Yeah, slow down, smell the roses. Really, take your time. Enjoy it. We have one ride, one life.

Enjoy it. At least that I know. Some people say this multiple lives, but I know I've got one life that I'm aware of, at least. Let's put it that way. Enjoy it. And it's a choice.

The market is a tool making money. It's a tool. to help us do more good. It's a tool. Let it serve you. I'll say it again. Let the market, let money serve you. Not the other way around. My first got started again, late 90s trading stocks and having my own business and I opened and closed many businesses over the decade. I started my first business when I was 12 years old selling candy before Costco was around to kids in middle school. That's a just I've been on I've had that spirit, you know, entrepreneurial spirit ever since I was a kid. And I used to, you know, really work to the point where I would sit for hours and hours and hours in front of the screen, quote unquote, working. But it was sucking the life out. I mean, I wasn't even aware of it. And when you're young, you don't know any better. You're still

relatively healthy. You don't have any big concerns. Now decades later, I've got glasses. I wonder why. How many hours, how many, not just hours, how many years did I spend in front of the screen? sitting, typing, shoulders up, type, you know, okay, my neck hurts. So I go to a chiroprud. Well, what do you expect? So pause, reflect, take your time. Out of all the things you're quote unquote doing, prioritize them. I just rank them by ROI, by return on the investment, not just the money return, but time, which is more valuable than money.

We all have 24 hours in a day. What do you do with that time really matters? why is Warren Buffett Warren Buffett and the person that doesn't have a lot of resources doesn't not because Buffett has more time than you have persons what Buffett does with his time

or what he did with his time and what he continues to do with this time because you can blow it really quickly so understanding that life is precious taking time to really tell your loved ones thank you tell you loved ones I love you. Fixing these relationships with yourself, with others, with anything you want to go, any direction

you want to go. Life's all relationships. You have relationship with money. You have relationship with time. You have a relationship with yourself. You have a relationship with da-da-da-da-da-da. Enter anything else you want. Your kids, your wife, your father, sister, daughter.

Enter anything else you want. If stronger the relationships, all things being equal, of course, the better the quality of life. So why not invest in those relationships? Pick up the phone. Go say hello to somebody. Face to face, interact. If you want, send the text message. Send the text message.

I prefer phone calls. Some people like texting. Okay. However you want to do it, right? Give attention. I learned this for my kids when they were younger. Attention is binary. You either take it, which most people try doing.

It doesn't really work, or you give it. And when you get to next level ninja stuff, you start giving attention. and wow, you'll see your relationships really, really, really improve because when you're giving attention, it's like a child. You know, the adult gives attention to the child. The child eats it up. When I talked to a three-year-old or a five-year-old, even an adult today, it's the same thing. What do you like better, chocolate or vanilla?

What do you like better, Amazon or Apple, Navidia or Tesla? Which stock do you like better? And then boom, people just open up. And I'm giving attention. I could talk about myself all day long. Nobody cares. So I hope that just putting things in perspective and just take a few minutes here

and send some love and just looking at things in a different perspective. All right. Up next, get back to markets and a lot more. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna.

And I asked him, How can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today,

with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway.

It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop insurface. store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full

terms and conditions. com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience 24-7, all for free. I'm GaryK.com. All right, a few things. Week ahead. We're getting back to markets now. So today, Monday, we had July new home sales came out. Tuesday, July, durable goods, August consumer confidence, and earnings are expected from MongoDB, MDB is a ticker, and Box, B-O-X, among other companies.

I'm just going to give you some of the highlights here, because of I'm going to I go through every single stock that reports earnings, you're probably going to be bored. I mean, I can go on and on. There's a lot more companies reporting earnings, but those are some of the big ones. All right. Next, Wednesday is a big day from an earning standpoint. Navidia, NVDA reports earnings. You also have Coles, KSS, Crowdstrike, Snowflake, HP, Five Below, Jam, Smucker and Company,

and so many other ones. William Sonobah, Abercrombie and Fitch, urban outfitters, all on Wednesday. But the big, big elephant in the room, this whole week for earnings is Navidia. Why? Because Navidia is the poster child for AI. One of the best ways to monetize her to make money so far in AI. Even my sister last week was like, hey, how do I invest in AI? And she's not somebody that talks to me ever about investing, ever.

She's got her 401K, she buys her ETFs or mutual funds, and she doesn't even look at the market and she's been doing that for decades and that's that. So interesting, right? Like she says, Interrissante. All right. So Navidia, that's going to be big to watch Wednesday. Thursday, Q2 GDP, second estimate. Earnings expected from Dell, Marvell Technologies, Dollar General, Best Buy, and Dick Sporting Goods, Burlington, Coat Factor, they just call it Burlington now, Alta Beauty Gap, Petco, Autodesk. Friday, you have July PCE, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. And you've got earnings from Alibaba and a few other ones as well.

But really, those are the headlines as far as I'm concerned for this week coming up. Again, Monday was July new home sales. Tuesday, you've got adorable goods, consumer confidence for August. You've got some earnings. Wednesday's the big day, Navidia. And then Thursday, Q2 GDP, Friday, July PCE. Now, as with all data, I want to focus on the data itself, sure, but how does the market react to that data? That tells me what's happening going forward, what the big investors are doing with their money, not just saying what they're going to do, but what they're actually doing.

Meaning, I can go on TV or come on radio and say I'm bearish all day long, but I'm secretly buying, or vice versa. It doesn't matter what I say. All that impacts the price is what I do, or collectively, what all the big institutions do. not even me, but what the big institutions do, right? So that shows up in price and volume. So July home sales comes out. Oh my goodness, is that good or bad? Sure, it can come out.

Let's just say misses expectations tremendously, but housing stocks go up. Or it comes out and it's super, super strong. Housing stocks go down. Well, what shows up in your statement? If you own these housing stocks, it's the price of these. stocks goes up or down. That's what matters. So the data by definition is a rear view mirror phenomenon. It tells you what happened in the past. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen going forward. The best thing you can do, no one knows what will happen in the future. By definition,

the future is unknown. But what we do know is how the market reacts to the data. In the world, in life. I like to say adults, if you ask somebody something and the answer is not a resounding yes, yeah, I want to do it, then the answer is no. My daughter's 12, I'm 13 now. And when she was 12, she used to say, ma'am, M-E-H, you know, that was a thing amongst her and a group of friends. Man, man, man, man. They're like, okay, great. So if the answer is not yes, I can use other words before it, but just a strong yes, you know, for adults, yeah, the answer is probably no. my wife, hey, you want to do X, Y, Z? Yeah, I'll think about it. Maybe. Okay. Same thing with my kids. Same thing with friends. Same thing with business associates. But the answer is yes, I want to do it.

Now all of a sudden I know that person's engaged. And that really, really matters. Why? Because when a person's engaged, guess what happens? They're invested. They want to do it. And when somebody wants to do something that is super, super strong. So when you look at the market and it reacts to the data, that tells us a lot. So the future is unknown, but we can stack the odds of success in our favor. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is a big, big, big, big advantage, especially investing. Why? Because if we see, hey, the market's reacting strong and it's going up a lot, like what happened on Friday after the Fed hinted they're going to cut. The Fed didn't cut yet.

They hinted they're going to cut and they're going to have several cuts, but they didn't do it yet. It doesn't matter. The market's moving now in anticipation of the cut or future cuts. Remember, markets are forward-looking mechanism. Economic and earnings data by definition tells us what happened in the past. So that reaction is a little clue on what the market's going to do going forward. It doesn't have to always work.

Lots of times you see stocks go up after. earnings and then get sell off or go down after earnings and then rally right back up. That happens often. But for the most part, overall, you want to see, you know, up is good if you're long, short, you know, down is bad if you're long. And it's the event, the economic data, the news data, because we have a, you know, a lot of earnings, economic data coming out this week. And then it's a reaction to that data.

That's it. And then continue to watch the reaction. Oh, I might be really interested to go watch. that movie or go to that concert or that play or whatever, that sporting event. And then you get there and it's like, eh, meh, not so much. Just get up and leave. I've done that so many times. I can't even tell you.

I've been to events, major, major events, I'm not having a good time. Enter any reason you possibly want. It just didn't align with my expectations, whatever it is, even watching a movie. Go to a movie and I'm, you know, third of the way into it or even halfway into it. I don't like it. Why sit there and wait for the end of the movies? Get up and leave. So take your time as you go through data.

Take your time understanding that the market's a forward-looking mechanism. Take your time when you have a situation where you have incoming data and you have a lot of things happening. You really want to zoom out and look at the forest, not just the trees. And that becomes a superpower. So when you look at the forest, you look at a weekly chart or a monthly chart that tends to filter out the noise on any given day or any given week. You know, are we up this week? Are we up this month?

Are we up this year? How much? Oh, okay. Great. We had a pullback for the NASDAQ 100, the QQ right into the 50-day moving average. And then what happened? We bounced really nicely off of it. Great.

So near-term support would be the 50-day moving average in the NASDAQ 100. Again, it's just how to interpret the data, right? What I like to say is the market's speaking and then ask, are you listening? That's a way to, the market's not verbally speaking at you, but that's a way to interpret the data, because most communication anyway is nonverbal between humans. And so that's how the market speaks. Okay, great. Where's support?

Where's resistance? How does it react near those areas? The S&P 500, the SPY, the 21-day moving average was near term support, not even the 50. It didn't even get down to the 50. Interesting. Okay. The Russell 2000. IWM had a really nice rally back in the beginning or middle of August, and then it pulled into

the 21 day, didn't touch the 50, and then took off on Friday. That's good, as long as it stays above the 21 day, as long as it stays above the 50, and you're breaking out from a big cup and handle pattern. So again, it's all about stacking the odds of success in your favor, looking forward. Interpret the data in real time, trade in the now, but maybe on a future show, maybe a little bit later, I'll cover the concept of not getting stuck in the past, because lots of people, you know, the past really impacts their ability to make decisions and see things rationally in the moment and going forward.

But I'll leave that for another time. For now, you've got a lot of data coming out this week. You want to see how the market reacts to it. NVIDIA, let's talk about that for a second. How to make money investing in AI, NVIDIA is one of the best ways to do that. or at least it's been. Why? Because they make the chips for a lot of those AI models.

Okay, great. So if earnings come out, irrespective of the actual numbers, and the stock gaps up big and rallies, all things mean equal, that would be bullish, not just for the market, but for Navidia and also semiconductor stocks and everything else related to AI. If it gaps down big on volume,

whoa, that could be a catalyst or an event, that occurs that changes the near-term paradigm. So it's one of those situations where you do want to take your time. You want to definitely look at the earnings when the video reports, but the reaction tells me pretty much everything I need to know because that reaction is what the big investors are dealing with their money. All right. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan.

and this is the one and only investors' edge. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to that, pick areas you can scale.

Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than, 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive,

so we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings. all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change in our technology is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills

and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points.

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What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guest's edge. with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kaye, who's out today, and he's going to be out for the next few days.

I spoke about that earlier in case you missed it. You can go back and listen. His father passed away in his sleep early Sunday morning, and our deepest condolences. I spent a whole portion of the show speaking about his father earlier, and you can rewind it if you want to be listened. But again, if you want to be listening. to reach out, you can go to GaryK.com and send an email there or engage with Gary there. All right. So in the next few minutes that we have left in the show today, again, I can't, I mean, just time goes by so fast. Thank you all for being here, as always. I want to speak to you about leadership, finding stock, leading stock, finding leading stocks, really, but finding stocks that are leading in the market.

So there's thousands and thousands of stocks out there every day. Some of them go up, some of them go down. do you know which ones are quote unquote good, which ones are bad? In fact, a lot of these, same thing with sectors, same thing with industry groups, same thing with looking at different countries, you know, U.S. stock market compared to the Canadian stock market, compared to the Chinese stock market, so on and so forth. There's one thing that they all have in common. It doesn't matter what the asset class is. You can look at commodities, currencies, cryptocurrencies, crypto, you know, equities, look at whatever you want. There's a gazillion things out there that are liquid and publicly traded.

They all have one thing in common. Performance. There's price and then there's percent change. Up, down. Yes, you go much deeper than that. Yes, you can go into a lot more detail. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. But from a pure leadership standpoint,

one of the easiest ways to look at anything from an investing standpoint is to separate the leaders from the laggards. In other words, what areas in the market, what stocks, what sectors are up the most in any given period? One of the easiest ways to do that is on a year-to-date basis. Y-T-D, year-to-date. You could do it month-a-date, week-to-date. You can look at an intraday any time frame you want, folks.

But I like the intermediate term time frame. I'm not a buy-and-hold guy where I hold it for 10, 20, 50, 100 years, no. I'm not going to day trade where I'm in-out in the next day. 30 seconds, done that before and made those mistakes a gazillion times, at least for me, it doesn't align well with my strengths. I'm much better at big picture kind of investing, and the weekly time frame and monthly timeframes tend to work really, really well for me. That being said, year-to-date tends to be one of the easiest things that I can do at any given point in the year, except for the first few weeks of January, but even then after the first week

or so, you can start doing it. But it works better as the year goes on. Right now we're in August. So let's do a year-to-day percent change and look around. And what areas of the market are leading? Well, you've got financials, European financials. EUFN. E as in Europe, U as an Union, F as a Frank, N as an ANSI, an ETF that tracks European financials. Up big this year.

The XME, which is metals and mining stocks, up very big this year. ARC, ARKK, which is Kathy Woods Innovation Fund, up big this year. It's basing now. Gold. Gold, I believe, was up 25% this year, or 28%, somewhere in that range, which is up a lot, considering that the NASDAQ 100, the leading index right now is up. I think NASDAQ up about 10% or 11 or 12% somewhere in that range. I don't have the exact number in front of me.

But, you know, that's, let's see if I can get it here. Hold on a second here. Let's see. QQQ. Yeah, it's up about 11.8%. So about 12% for the year, the NASDAQ 100. So gold's up 28%. That's more than double. That tells me a lot. Big money's flowing into gold, right? When you look at gold, GLD is an ETF that tracks gold. All right, I want to find gold stocks. And then I'm going to go a little bit deeper. So gold jumps out of me. I'm not really investing in your European financials, metals and mining. Notice I just said that a few minutes ago because that's a metals and mining group. They benefit from gold. And then Arc. Arc's not my thing. So, okay, great. Look at the XME. Look at the metals and mine. Look at gold. Right away, finds an area now and within two seconds. I sorted that by year-to-date percent change, by the way. I just read you the first strongest

ETFs that I have on my list. And gold jumped out of me. So now I'm going to take a look at the GDX, which is gold mining stocks. How's that performing year-to-date? Oh, that's up and up a lot this year. Okay, let's look at the juniors, GDXJ. Oh, that's also up and up a lot. Oh, okay. Well, another sector or group that's up a lot. Now we can go deeper. And then I'm going to go look at all the gold stocks in that industry group.

Out of the gold stocks, right? At the metals and mining groups. Which ones are the strongest? And then I'm not just going to blindly buy them. That's not necessarily prudent. But if they're basing and they have a good breakout, they're breaking out of a range, which I'll talk about in probably a future show, maybe tomorrow or the next day, the power of breakouts and volume and what we're looking for. That's going to be really, really helpful because now all of a sudden, they can get a watch list.

I can get setups. And I can find strength. I can stay focused. Staying focused is a superpower, folks. Staying focused is a superpower. So I want to focus on leadership. And when an area stops leading, it becomes a laggard. Bye-bye.

It's no longer on my radar. If it breaks down below the 50 and starts rolling over, another area shows up, great. I'm focusing on the new area that shows up. Just like the Russell, IWM was lagging all year. Now all of a sudden it broke out and it's perking up after Friday with the Fed. It now has my attention. And areas that were lagging most of the year, you can look at housing stocks, XHB, right? Had a nice breakout on Friday.

These gold stocks I mentioned are right. A lot of them had a big move up, so I'm not going to chase them. I'll wait, let them pull back a little bit. And I'll keep going through the list of sectors and just keep a scoreboard and sort it by year-to-day percent change. Maybe areas that had been lagging for a long time are going to start perking up a little bit. Maybe. I don't know, but I'm going to track them. And I'm going to keep looking until I find something that really matches my criteria.

Probably tomorrow I'll talk about my criteria a lot more. What makes a quote-unquote good stock? what I'm looking for, what I'm, what I try to avoid, you know, all that kind of fun stuff, because that's, that's really important to just have your criteria. Now, I'll tell you what I do, but more importantly, you got to figure out what works for you. Because if you can figure out what works for you, you've got a superpower. You've got a situation where you are now in control and you don't have to worry about what, quote, unquote, is good for someone else. You find what's good for you. That's also another superpower. It's being able to,

take, interpret the data, take in the data, filter out the noise, what's not ideal, and really stay laser focused on what the highest ROI stuff is, what works for me. Buffett was quoted back in the 1999.com, you know, huge rally. He missed most of it. He's like, it's not for me. He knows banks. He knows insurance companies. He didn't know dot-coms.

He left it. And he missed it on the way up. He also missed it on the way down. And he's still one of the richest investors ever. Anyway, I think that's all the time we have for today. Sending all the love to Gary condolences. Thank you all for being here. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investors Edge.

This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st.

Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, Oira Ida, Silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.