Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Confirmation? [08.13.2024]

Episode Date: August 13, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Loyalty program subject to terms and conditions. Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Tuesday. It's August 13th. It's 2024. Hope you're having a good day. When you look at your 401ks tonight, you should be a lot happier. Finally, what I would call an oomph day.

What is an oomph day? day well it's spelled oh oh m ph as you know starting around july 11th the market just got kicked in the teeth the semiconductors oh i didn't introduce myself yet i'll do that in a minute semi conductors to last monday's low down 28 percent 28 percent from july 11th the semiconductors and then last monday we had I guess you can call it the mother of all volatility washouts. We're something called the volatility index, the VIX, spiked, we mentioned yesterday, take the Eiffel Tower and add the Seattle Space Needle. That's how straight up it went.

That is a measurement of fear and holy crapness. And typically we'll lead to some what we would call upside testing in that when you wash out all the sellers late. And let me give you an example of something. So you have an understanding. We sold our Nvidia a while back. I'm not name and name, so I gather they would not matter. But I have a client that bought, they just wanted to own it forever.

And I said, you know what? Okay. And they ended up with doesn't matter how many shares. Last Monday, we're not making this up. at around 9.25, I got a text. Sell my Nvidia. It had gone from 140, and that morning, I believe, was around 90. Now, lucky for this person, I cannot take an order from a client over text or email.

By the way, 99.999 of my business is discretionary, but every now and then somebody wants to do something. that's okay and I called this person up and I said you know why don't you give it a little bit of room not knowing what would happen I'm bringing this up because that's the type of just get me out I can't take this anymore selling that was going on and when the last vestiges of just panic out typically it'll lead to some upside testing is the sellers are gone. And what we typically will look for is not just a bounce, but do we feel some real buying in there? And I can tell you, we are pre-taping this show,

usually right at 4 o'clock, but we got a little TV to do in a couple other things. So the first couple of segments of the show, we're pre-taping in the last half, hour of the market the last two segments of our show will be after the market closes but as I speak let me tell you the most important number I believe the Philadelphia Semiconductor index is up 177 today to 4921 to me that's the most important number why the semis lead up and down and they were crushed so it's up 3.75 percent today listen I've seen six and seven

7% days, but we'll take it and leave no doubt it's still way below the highs of July 11th. And I'm going to suggest it's still down about 18% from July 11th. So there's definitely work to do. But we're always looking for what we call a start. Now, the Dow's up 375, the NASDAX up 371. that's about 2.1% not the biggest day we ever seen but potentially you know how we use the terms confirmation day o'neill had this thing called the follow-through day i like confirmation day it confirms whatever low was put in for now but as you know we don't do tried and true here oh

follow-through day just by the market you need things to buy and Of course, you need to make sure you look over your shoulder. Because as we have explained to you, doesn't mean it's going to lead to anything. We can just fritter it away tomorrow. What we have to do is scan the markets and see what we have. And as we've said to you before today, there's been a group of names that have shown great relative strength. They couldn't send them down in the worst of the market. guess what? Most of them are pretty decent today.

And we'll see what tomorrow brings. But good day. And leave no doubt, last Monday, we'll go into our little archives. As you know, we have thousands of thousands of charts that we're always going back to. We want to remember them. And last Monday, we opened up down a thousand on the Dow and like a thousand on the NASDAQ, which is a lot worse than the Dow on a percentage basis. the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, the semiconductors finished about halfway up.

The Dow finished down still a thousand on that day. So people were still scared. And from that day, we had a decent Tuesday, a real crappy end to Wednesday, where we were up nicely and finished at the lows of the day. And all of a sudden, at least I'm thinking, oh, crap. then comes Thursday where we open up nice, finish nice, had a couple of nothing days, and now pretty darn good day to day.

That said, not a lot of leadership, and that's because of how much damage was done. Not a lot of, and we use the term leadership, is there anything viciously, loudly, busting out of range, into new yearly high ground, showing great relative strength. Coming in today, I had a couple of handfuls of good relative strength, and maybe another 50 names that were decent.

Today, overall, we'll call it umph, but the best part of the move today, for example, NVIDIA, is up 6% today. but volume is 13% below average but looks like it may be curling up here near term and what do we mean by curling up well after a big drop it settles down around the same little levels

and then kind of has this little curling up move and we also recognize that invidia went back down to the last gap and reversed so maybe there's something to that And we do know that the semis will tend to follow the number one stock in semiconductor land. So good to see. Good to see. In the Dow today, as I said, is up 380 as I speak. Nothing down.

Everything up. And you had just a bunch of things up. Goldman's up 7, about 1.6%. Home Depot, very weird. was down $15 in pre-market on a crappy earnings report. As we opened, it was hardly down. It's up five today on a crappy earnings report, which tells you just the market's better.

Not much about their earnings report, which, by the way, 0% earnings growth, 1% sales growth. That's terrible. And they miss numbers and guidance for same store sales. And that's the biggest measurement for retailers was down. was down. And just other things are bouncing around, which is just fine and dandy. But for me, again, I start out with the semis because they are mui importante. And let's hope they stick.

Notice I use the words, let's hope they stick. Notice, am I convinced? We'll see. But good day. and always a good day to see the number one tech stock have a good day and leave no doubt NVIDIA had led down. Other semis usual suspects are down, but just remember, in the context. Lamb Research is up $23 today to $833. It was $1,130, July 11th. It's still down $300. So we must remember that as we do our scam.

I can't begin to tell you how important that is. Most people don't recognize that. I'm also watching financials closely, having a good day. Need a little more work. Why are we rallying? Because we went down far and sellers got out of the way. What about the recession? I can all but tell you, if we're going in a bad recession,

market's going to be down 15% from here, if not more. So maybe not. Up next. More on the market. And I've got to introduce myself. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again, to Investors Edge. Just so you know, they had this producer price index today. Inflation is the rate of inflation is much farther down.

But we told you that a long month ago. Everybody's reporting the news. That is good news because I can promise you one thing, ladies and gentlemen, if we have another bout of inflation from here where prices are already elevated, uh-oh. considering the fact and we know this is fact the consumer is softer

right now. They're soft. They're spending less. They're thinking about it more. And this goes for travel, retail, restaurants, and the like. Doesn't have to be the end of the world. It can just be a

patch of weakness. It's happened before without having to have a big recession in the end of the world coming, but something to watch. Tomorrow will be the consumer price index. Producer prices is the production of it, the consumer prices, the pay in of it, and all that crap. By the way, I'm Gary Kulp.

I'm this as Investor's Edge. It's serious talk on everything that affects you. We do the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit, spending, scam, shams, corruption, and the Morlocks in Washington, D.C., where Vice President Harris is no longer the Vice President Harris of the last three years or whatever she was before that, that she's changing her whole tune into the election. She is now Ronald Reagan. She no longer wants government-run health care.

She no longer wants a complete ban on fracking. She wants tax cuts for the waiters and waitresses and the services. industry out there when the Biden administration, part of the hiring more IRS, is to go after people that get cash for tips. Do you remember that? The complete whitewashing of somebody's beliefs. By the way, not the first time it's happened in Washington, D.C. Anyway, and if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our Twitter. feed, which is now X. No, we did not listen to Donald Trump on X. I heard he was on for two hours last night. I gather we didn't hear anything different, but it's good to hear from one of the

candidates, right? And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. You can do that at garyk.com. Other things I just wanted to bring up today, I don't know if you saw the news. The CEO of Chipotle is leaving to be the CEO of Starbucks. And Starbucks, which has been a dead stock, even though a bunch of outside activists have taken a position and they want them to change anything, Starbucks is up 24% today on a new CEO because they think the new CEO from Chipotle has done a great job.

That basically adds, let's see, it is up today. Let me give you the number. It's amazing. It's up $18 today. Let's call it. They added $20 billion to the market cap of Starbucks today because the CEO of Chipotle is going to Starbucks. Here's the problem.

We've warned you about Starbucks for months, right? What have we told you about the problem with Starbucks? Well, you're not dealing with very pricey items. Coffee. That's not pricey. You're not buying a car. You're not going to Lulu Lemon for the $80 pants. I think that's what it costs there.

You're going for some coffee. And maybe you're going for one of those breakfast sandwiches, which I love so much. I am the greatest advertisement for Starbucks breakfast sandwiches. The reduced fat, bacon, turkey bacon sandwich, and the spinach and feta wrap. I'm the king of those two. The problem is.

they're pricey now. What used to be seven is now nine. In New York is now 10. And I'm trying to figure out how they can put the crap back in the goose when it comes to price at Starbucks. That's the inflation part of the equation, I think. I don't know what a new CEO can do to make things better.

Because when I speak to the peeps at Starbucks that I go to, they're telling me it's all about being price conscience. People are, I don't want to pay 10 bucks for a coffee and a breakfast sandwich. I'm going to make it at home. What are they going to do? Better coffee? A different sandwich?

They tried a bunch of different items. So we'll see. Hey, the market believes this guy is the end all be all I hope he is. Now Chipotle stock is down like 7 or 8% because he's leaving. I'm not so sure I've seen such a move because of one person. I'm trying to remember one person moving the needle like that. He must feel really good about himself right now, that CEO. And they have an interim CEO going into Chipotle from what I know.

Anyway, I just had to bring that up. That's going to be interesting to watch. What new CEO is going to do at Starbucks? And due to the fact, I really kind of think I know the business. Well, I am going to be watching closely. I'm going to report to you. I don't own the stock, but it's gone from, damn, it's up 18 bucks to date and 95 bucks. Wow.

Awesome for the Starbucks holders. because man, oh man, that sucker's been dead money. Starbucks stock, let's see. No gains in five years. By the way, it's down from five years ago, even with today's gain. Not as bad as Disney. Do you know Disney? The high was 203 in March of 21.

It's 85 today. One of the greatest brand names in history, Disney, has gone from 203 to 85. I would have never believed that. It just tells you you got to stay on top of things, kids. Boeing, the stock is gone from 446 to 168 today. Oh, and by the way, during COVID hit, $89, and even after COVID hit $113 is actually off the lows. City Group, I got to do that one, right? is it 58 bucks today

hit a high in 06 of 570 do not forget they did a 1 for 10 split I just figure I bring those three up because just remember it's okay to hold things long term make sure what you're holding is working long term up next we'll take you to the end of the day

we'll be back you won't know it, but we'll take it after the market closes, and much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John,

comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges, world, Worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. Investors Edge

He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Coltbaum It comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him Okay And welcome once again to Investors Edge

It's now we have to 4 o'clock And we finished very well today The Dow is up 408 The S&P 909 NASDAQ 407 NASDAQ 100 up 464 and you know what that means let's see nVIDia up seven Netflix 14 we'll put things in perspective in a second Tesla up 10 Apple up three and change Dell up four and change Microsoft up six and change blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah the semiconductor index up a juicy

198 today so very good day and I want to be very careful with my words because for those that follow the teachings of William O'Neill and Investors Business Daily, and you hear things about something called a follow-through day, a confirmation day. As best as I see it right now, at the close, you had a follow-through day in the S&P and the NASDAQ. That means volume was higher than yesterday, and you had a big day up.

They used to say it was one. 1%, and they change it to 1.5 and then back again, depending on market conditions. I'm just letting you know they're going to call that tonight. But I want to be careful because I want to give an explanation to it just in case you follow it. A follow-through day, a confirmation day is just a characteristic that has shown up in every bull move we've ever had. but not every time it shows up has led to a real good move. You got that? So we had one a while back and it failed immediately the next day.

If tomorrow we come in and the NASDAQ's down 200 on heavy volume, see ya. But if we continue. and I'm able to come on the show and say more names showed up and better action and better action. Well, that's the process of it. But part of this confirmation day, follow-through day, you need stocks. And that means we have to look at the new yearly high list to see if anything's jumping out at us, showing up for us. Not a lot yet, but definitely better. So again, let me just repeat.

It's just a characteristic. You know when we talked to about July 11th? We thought a top in semiconductors and tech that day. What was the reason behind that? Well, a certain characteristic for us showed up a huge high volume reversal off of an extended move. And we never know how long it lasts, how far it goes. We always tell you that. That's why I loathe when people give out targets.

While my target for the end of the year is, that's all BS. Nobody knows where the market's going to be in six months or three months. So all we do know is after a 28% drop in the semis, which is to us the leading index and led things down. Last Monday, you had this almost halfway reversal. washing out, you drifted for a bit, and today we're hopefully confirming that that's a real low, and we can go for a while. Now leave no doubt, the jury is still out. That's why we pay attention and scan every single day, every single minute. And we'll know it's for real if stock after stock, sector after sector starts really jumping.

We know so far, though, it's going to be narrow. We know that it's not going to be everything, but we also know, as we've stated to you recently, boy, these stocks have great relative strength. And we've mentioned them to you. Whether or not they last, who knows, but we're always a big believer, the markets are race. and those stocks that typically refuse to go down while the market's getting trashed, we want to know which ones they are.

In the semiconductors, for instance, and by the way, this is not telling you to buy, sell, short a cover. There are a couple of names like symbol MPWR and symbol CRUS. MPWR is held up like a rock. This is one of these equipment makers. I believe it's like LCD, LED, and all that crap. Versus, go look at Lamb Research and went way down. Another name in semis is Cirrus Logic. That finally got hit, but straight back up off of a strong earnings report.

So we're constantly trying to figure out, and it's not really hard. You've got to work at it, though, but it's not really hard. we're constantly trying to figure out where that relative strength is. And now my job is simply going to be, is this going to stick? We'll watch some bellwethers. NVIDIA today. Looks like, as we said earlier, curling up. Certainly not big strength.

And volume was 12% less than normal today being up 6.5%. but we're always looking for what's the number one number two number three stock in the group what's the big name and i think that's what drove things the market saw that and we're always asked well what changed was there any news anything going on they washed out the sellers last monday got big gargantuan body blows drifted around for a few days a little hard a little higher from oversold stretched conditions to the downside, and today may be meaningful. Not 100% sure. And what I'll do tonight is I do every night.

Okay, let's see the financials. Where's the strength? The housing. Where's the strength? What didn't participate? Where's the weakness? And then? Close our eyes, hold our nose, and pray.

Simple as that. But good day, and let's hope for more. And if you get Investors Business Daily and you read that stuff, you'll see tonight they'll say, we've got a confirmation day. Notwithstanding, hey, there's some earnings coming out the rest of the week. I think Walmart may be in the next day or so. actually I'm pretty darn sure that Home Depot as we said was today

and it was weird it was down 15 in the pre-market flat as we opened up finished up today on what I wouldn't consider to be crappy numbers let's see after the close today now Walmart will be

tomorrow no Thursday but good to see good to see do I trust I never trust anything until it's working I never trust anything until it's working

why because the market doesn't like us just remember that it's an adversary it's always trying to rip your heart out and that's why we're always advocating being careful, watch yourself, GameStop, Chewy, AMC, no sales biotechs, no sales junk that gets touted and then does round trips. It's tough enough. And that's why we're always talking greatness

in the markets. We're looking for you to have the best companies with the best earnings with the best sales, ignore the companies that are doing poorly, though Starbucks, which was doing poorly, got a new CEO today. Boy, oh boy, that dude probably looking in the mirror right now and saying, look at me, 20 billion bucks of market cap, 20 billion dollars a market cap because of a new CEO. We'll see if that holds up. Interest rates, 3.85%, down from 4.9.

That is cost of capital. Cost of capital. Coming down from the consumer all the way to big business, good to see. Up next, whatever else we can think of. I'm Gary. this is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John.

Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, three. Ready. Go. Investors Edge.

With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. We've yet to do our scans. Good day. Advanced declines were good. Up, down, volume was good. There were more new lows on the NASDAQ than new highs, which is quite amazing. But I don't think that's a biggie.

And if things get better, more and more and more and more and more will show up. And we'll let you know. As always, it's your money. You get to decide, but good day. And again, we always get the question, how does change buyers, buyers, sellers, sellers, buyers? How does these semiconductors drop 28% in a month and now get a bunch of, well, not a bunch of, but it's still down 18% from the highs? I don't know. Don't care. But I do have thoughts. and the big thoughts are if in fact, if in fact, the market telegraphs a recession of import. And I'm not talking about, eh, you got a couple of quarters down 1%, but of import. I would guess the Dow that's at 397 would be at 37, and the NASDAQ would be worse than that on a percentage basis.

That's how it works. The fact that we're rallying does that mean we're not going to have a recession? Not so sure of that. Because right now we're getting back some of getting trashed. And the semis are still down near 20% from the highs. And I can tell you before I even scan, still a lot of stocks in a lot of sectors. Still way down from their highs. with some stocks and areas somewhat obliterated.

So stay tuned. The election. So Trump did his two hours with Elon Musk last night. I didn't listen to it. This is what I was told by what I believe to be non-biased people. Nothing really knew. It was very conversational but very easy. They really didn't get into tough things.

And of course, they didn't bring up some very kind of. controversial Trump things, but I think a very smart move on his part. Kamala Harris refuses to do any interviews, and the amazing part about that is the media doesn't even show that they're pissed. They should be so pissed off at her, I couldn't even begin to tell you, but they can't because it's their side. And it's a shame. Time Magazine has a picture of her. The only thing they are missing is the halo. The headlines for her have completely forgot the last three and a half years.

She's no longer the borders are. Debt and deficits, what's that? Afghanistan, even so she says she was in on the decision making, nothing going on there. She's now in her scripted whatever advertisements. We're going to bring, I'm going to bring prices down. Wait a minute. You've been there for three and a half years and we've had the worst bout of inflation. in 40 years.

The media is not even pondering that. So we're just letting you know you're not going to get the straight from the media. Please do your homework. They hate one side with a vengeance and they're kissing the butt of the other side. They're not even investigating the in your face in plain size. taking down of Joe Biden while for months and months and months hiding the fact that, listen, he's gotten older, which by the way, we wish him nothing but the best of health going forward.

And we're actually happy for him because it's a very tough job. And we mean that as much as we hate all his policies, all good health to him. mean that sincerely. So we're going to stay on top of these things because, and look, Trump's a wild card. He's saying 10% tariffs. He ain't doing 10% tariffs. All hell would break loose. I don't even know why he would propose that.

And I think he said something about even higher than that. That ain't going to happen. But all we do know is we look at past performance. And all we do know is that you have one side that has. proposed long-term capital gains from 20 to 44 percent, unrealized capital gains of 25 percent, wealth taxes, getting rid of the Trump tax, by the way, from dollar one, don't believe the bull crap that they can carve out people under 400,000, that's their magic number. If you make more than 400,000, you're a tax cheat.

If you make less than 400,000, you're good. And we're just going to stay on top of it, and we're going to talk economic. We'll delve into other things, of course. Foreign policy is important. Really, economics is part of foreign policy and vice versa. And again, we're going to tell you the facts. And you go and decide. These are proposals out of their mouths.

We're now no fracking ban from Kamala Harris, but she was all for the fracking ban for years, which poses the question, Is she just full of crap going into the election as well as a few other things? And we'll take Mr. Trump to task also as we have in the past. So stay tuned because I got news for you. There is no way we can have the extraction and the confiscation of wealth that they are proposing on one side of the aisle going forward and think our economy is going to stand.

They already have us at $35 trillion of debt because of both sides. Headed to 56 in 10 years, according to the CBO, which means 70 because there's always low. So stay tuned. We are dead serious about all this, ladies and gentlemen, big time serious. Have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do, quite simply. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. Stay well, be well. Serenity Now. I'll be on Fox business tomorrow, 1 p.m. hour. Don't miss it. Until tomorrow. Serenity now. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.

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