Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - CONGRATULATIONS NUGGETS

Episode Date: June 13, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's June 13th, 2003. Hope you're having a very good day. I am having a better day. The back getting there. But still, we hit 921 emails from all of you out there with your own back pains, your own recommendations, and we thank you big time, you know, hopefully soon. And I was asked, just so you know, I almost cried on one of the pains that I got.

That's how bad it was. Anyway, thank you. Hey, this is a show about you and everything that affects you. Your money, the markets, the economy, jobs, employment, everything. Serious talk with a little comedy injected. And with the market going up a little bit here, we can do a little bit more comedy, but we won't today because there's a lot of serious things going on. And I just want to get it out of the way.

President, ex-president, I guess you call it ex-president Trump. He just left the courthouse. I think in Miami, he was arrested. I don't know if they fingerprinted him or, I mean, they don't need a mugshot for the guy, right? I just want you to not forget something because we know what you hear out there. We want you to remember everybody's in their tank. they don't care about you. They'll say anything to try and sway you.

Just remember we're at $32 trillion of debt because of all of them. Just remember that very simply, and this is the way, if you don't know this by now, I can't help you. If this Democrat, there would be no investigation. That's number one. Number two, Donald Trump invited this. He's guilty of what they've said. which gets me to my point, is he just stupid? I was thinking of a good analogy earlier,

and I remember a very long time ago. I lived in San Diego for a little bit, and I went to the San Diego Zoo. And the next day, I wasn't there. I read in the paper, a man went into the, I guess it was the line, lion's den at the San Diego Zoo or was it the guerrilla? I don't know, one of them. And I'm thinking to myself today, didn't Trump just go into the Lions Den? He knows they hate him. He

knows they're after him. He knows they'll do anything to get him. And what does he do? He commits illegal acts. Just so you know, everything he did was illegal. Whether it rises to this, we can all all go back and forth on it. We know that, I read the beginning of the indictment, just so you know, it might as well describe Biden. But then you get more into it, and then you get into lying obstruction, telling people to lie for him, and this, that, and the other thing, he's going to be found guilty. It's an open and shut case, and I don't even need to be Perry Mason. if a Republican's not in the White House or he's not in the White House, they may put him in jail. And why?

He's just so stupid. Just so you know, he was told not to do it on a dozen occasions. He was begged not to do it on a dozen occasions. He was cajoled, don't do it. And he just kept doing it. And I'm not going to go into the psychologist. why I think it has to do with omnipotence and egomaniacal thought process, but look at you now. Look at them now.

And of course, the left, they look like they are, they, they, they, I'll be careful with my words. No, I can't say that on radio. Let's just say they look very excited. The right? Oh, it's this, that, and the other thing, it's Hillary Clinton. None of that matters now. A defense is not, oh, you didn't do it to Hillary Clinton, who, by the way, should have been indicted.

Hillary Clinton was open and shut indictment. A great, gigantic con by the Department of Justice and whoever was running the joint. Oh, we subpoenaed this stuff and you destroyed it. Oh, and you know what they said? We don't feel she had intent. You know what my answer to that is? Kiss my arse.

She didn't have intent. So knowing all this, that they're not going to do anything to one side, but they're going to go after the other side with vim and vigor, what do you have to do? Be smart. Above reproach. They asked for the stuff back. And you know what he did?

He gave back just a bit. and then he found out he had more and they went to him again and he only gave back a bit and then guess what they did at that point they did their major investigation and guess what they found out everything that's in the indictment

amazing to watch a man that's a multi I don't know if he's multi-billionaire one of the greatest golf courses I ever played in Scotland lives like royalty, has everything. I'm amazing. And what does he do?

He violated one of my big rules that I taught my sons. Never, I think I can use this word, never pee on prosperity. There's a different word there, starting with pee. You're prospering. Don't be stupid. And now look at you. So just letting you know my opinion, he's up you know what's Creek without a paddle

and he's at this point better hope he either wins the presidency and part of himself or whoever gets in there and that's my take unbelievable unbelievable a brilliant man supposedly yeah let's just hand it over to him

and let me repeat if this was a Democrat there would not even been an investigation. They drown everything bad on the Democrats. It's been going on forever. They black out everything. Hunter Biden is a criminal. They've taken five years and have done nothing,

and they have so much evidence on this creep on tax evasion and God only knows what else. They have his father involved with them. nothing. They're just sitting on it. And the amazing part is, it's obvious. It's in plain sight. And who do they have? The media. You know, if I went on any show, media show and brought that up, they'd shut my mic down. That's what they tried doing. I saw, I think it was Chris Christie that was on TV the other day. So just letting you know, stupidity. Stupidity. And now we go to the primaries. And we'll see how they play out. We'll cover them. We'll give you our thoughts. Just remember, there's 350 million of us. There's only 535 of them in an administration. I don't know why we've let them take over. And nothing has changed. Today, about a billion and a half of our tax dollars went towards interest. And today about, I think we're hitting about three and a half to four trillion. Now let me get that right. Let me get that right. Today, about $4 billion, make it $5,000, was added to our debt.

Did I say trillion? Must be the medicine. Anyway, we just had to start with that. And then the rest of the show, we will be talking about the markets. Another good day. We're going to hearken back to June 2nd when we came on to this show and said to you, And I'm pretty sure this is not a paraphrase. I think the broad market has come out of its coma.

We think the broad market woke up today. We're very surprised about it because normally narrow markets top out and the broad market that's so weak take things down further. Instead, the narrow markets gain legs and the broad market woke up. and that's your story right now I can't find anything bad I can say about this market right now except it's stretched extended

it's overbought it's due didn't happen today that's up next on Investors Edge hi I'm Gary Kalpom hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 8-8-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hey, it's Jay Shetty from On Purpose. Check out the best of a moment we did, presented by eBay. I'd never owned a vintage camera before. There was something about it that felt almost unnecessary

in a world where everything lives on our phones. But I wanted to change that. So I started the hunt for a point-and-shoot camera. When I finally found the perfect one on eBay, I didn't keep it to myself, I left it out on a table. Always within reach, people started picking it up without asking, family, friends, everyone to take a photo of whatever felt important to them in that moment.

There was no editing, no retakes, you took the photo and that was it. The moment became real right away. It was about choosing something. Deciding this matters, even if it came out blurry, the vintage camera belonged to the room, to the moment, to the people in it. Over time, the photos started to pile up on the fridge,

on shelves tucked into books. Each one a reminder that meaning isn't always planned. That's what I appreciate about eBay. It's a place where you can find things that bring people together and pass along things you no longer need so they can become part of someone else's memories. To listen to more,

check out the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. Visit eBay.com to shop your favorite finds. Find what you love, sell what you don't. eBay, things people love. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, I'm watching on TV now live, the president at a Miami cafe, and it looks like a rabbi is praying for him in the Miami Cafe. Oh, this is going to be one hell of the next 14 months.

My goodness. And look at those Secret Service guys. Boy, are they packing. Boy, are they packing. Okay. I don't know for how long, but we were saying to on this show. the only game in town is a select few tech stocks, the mega caps, and some others, quite the while, pretty much every day saying more new yearly lows than new yearly highs.

Pretty much telling you every day, avoid. And we went through a litany of areas to avoid. And every day, we had said to you avoid. economically sensitive stocks, avoid financials, avoid insurance, avoid travel, avoid transports, avoid energy, avoid retail, avoid autos, avoid China, and whatever else we told you to avoid. on January 2nd we had oh and avoid the small caps which by the way it should be obvious by now is laden L-A-D-E-N with those areas especially the regional banks that were crushed just go back and I can change my software to take me back to June 2nd you have

a monstrous day for the small caps, the midcaps, and all the comatose stuff. Names like Caterpillar, which we said to you that day is one of our proxies of the economically sensitive, that it had been in a downtrend since the highs in January, with so many other things worse. On that day, Caterpillar was up 17 bucks. Volume was 8 million, which is more than two and a half times average. But that in itself is just one day. But the look that the market gave us, gave us some confidence to say, we think the broad market just woke up out of its coma. and very simply, it's exactly what's happened. Caterpillar closed that day at 227.

It's 245 already in seven days. Rested for a day or two, went up, rested for a day or two, went up again. It brought along, dear, it brought along United Rentals. It brought along Parker Hanifin. It brought along Eaton. It brought along Cummins Inc. Which, by the way, is just V-shaped up, like a big deep V. And all those economically sensitive areas.

It also brought up the airlines. Do you know Delta Airlines at a new yearly high? It was dead money. Now, keep in mind, just the Delta Airlines is pretty much trading where it was 10 years ago, but we're dealing with the here and now. So airlines, Carnival Cruise Lines, New Yearly High. Of course, that stock is trading where I don't even know I can go that far back. And of course, COVID had something to do with that.

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian cruise lines, New Yearly highs. And then as I go through economically sensitive, Pachar, Martin Marietta materials, things that were dead, W.W. Granger, things that were dead. Just letting you know they've woken up. Financials, woken up. They have a lot more work to do than most.

That's that end of the market. And let me state for the record, plenty more work to be done. But just for, if KRE breaks above 45, another leg up, that's the regional banks. These are the things we're going to be looking for now as we move forward. What we call the two steps up, one step back routine in these areas. and when we tell you how bad the financials are, they're bad. The strongest name, by far, is J.P. Morgan.

Can't get out of its own way just yet. But getting close. If it breaks above 14440, it's out of here. Closed at 142 and change. While so many other things in the financials are way, way down. So just letting you know those areas that were just dead. Down trends. June 2nd changed everything.

And if you want to know what I mean, go get charts. Go look at June 2nd versus where the things were going. Show you everything you need to know. Small and midcaps woke up. That said, has not stopped. the other part of the equation. And that is what we call NVIDIA Day, which was May 25th. On that day, Envidia, a massive gap to the upside,

on a massive beat of their sales, one of the biggest we've ever seen. That lifted all the semiconductors. as you look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index for the ride and basically rested for a few days if it got too high and turning right up that enabled the what we call the beta the risk on Tesla I can tell you flat out Tesla's numbers have been heading south stocks gone from 200 to 258 in the last 14 days Of course, there was news that they cut a deal with GM.

GM's going to use their battery chargers or their machines, whatever the heck they are. So all we can tell you, I got no complaints just yet. Up next, more in these markets. Today's action. One and only investors ad. This is Sophia Bush from Work in Progress with Sophia Bush. Check out this special moment we did on our show, presented by eBay. When I was living in Chicago, I took place.

part in my first ever giant charity sale and I was able to auction several items from my personal closet on eBay. They were items that marked huge moments in my life and in my career. And though I was ready to pass them along, I also wanted to make sure they were going to someone who would love them. One of the things I loved the most about doing this with eBay is there was a way for everyone to shop. It wound up being so much fun to see where each and every item, was going where it was going to be loved. And in passing items along like that, authenticity really matters to the person who's getting them. That's why I love eBay's authenticity guarantee. They weren't just listing my items. They were verifying them, making sure something was genuinely from

where it claimed to be, in this case, my closet. To listen to more, check out the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. Find what you love, sell what you don't. eBay, things people love. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. You.

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That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So with these AI-type stocks and Nvidia and advanced micro-device, and Adobe and Adobe reports, I believe, Thursday. Am I correct?

Yes, after the close. Just so you know. So Oracle reports earnings last night. The earnings were up 8%. That is pedestrian. And what we mean by that is, why is the stock soaring? Artificial Intelligence.

Well, they opened it up at 124, closed it at 116 and change. But do you know why they did that? It's just very stretched and extended. Often I'd say to you, that's it. But no, these things just got stretched and extended, and it would be normal to pull them back. We're just letting you know. We're hearing a lot of people saying this can't last.

We're already hearing it's a bubble. Nvidia is a bubble Artificial intelligence, bubble. I got news for you. If it is, Nvidia may go to a thousand bucks or even higher. That's a bubble.

Bubbles are not categorized as something that just happened. This just happened what, 13 trading days ago? May 25th is when this whole thing woke. with the Nvidia thing. And to be clear, we're stunned at some of the moves.

We're stunned at some of the moves on some names that have terrible earnings. And when I say terrible, they're just not strong. Some are down. But anybody who's mentioning AI is getting the juice. So we don't know how far it goes, how long it lasts. We're just letting you know. Be careful about hearing from people that are saying, oh, it's already too far.

We'll let the market decide what's too far. I will tell you this, as a norm, we are stretched, we are extended. As a norm, bullishness has picked up to multi-year-rear records, a feeling of all in, a feeling of omnipotence. When the masses feel omnipotent, when Barons had a front cover of a bull, a few months after they had a front cover of a bear, that's the type of things we're talking about. That said, we'll let price dictate its primary. Everything else is secondary.

and when I give out the numbers, I can point out a few things. They ain't many. The juices are flowing. The beta is hopping. And the broad market bottom, June 2nd. And due to the fact, it's only June 13th. I think there's probably more to go.

Notwithstanding. Yeah, we got the Fed tomorrow. Yeah, we got this. Yeah, we got that. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and blah, blah, blah, blah. we just think absolutely pullbacks, constructive fashion, are viable in a good amount of areas now. Simple as that. The roadmap on June 2nd turned.

The keys to the kingdom changed. The broad market picked up. The beta continued. If it changes again, we'll let you. know but it kind of sort of just started and nobody believes and do you know why for good reason if i looked at the purchasing managers index services manufacturing savings rates credit card usage late payments you're thinking holy crap inverted yield current We've been told that we have deep recessions every time we have a big yield curve like this.

I got news for you. The market doesn't think it. And that's all that matters. There's no way. Remember what we've said to you? There's no way we're going in deep recession if the market's buying up Caterpillar. Just like we said to you, there's no way we're going down to 3,000 S&P like somebody predicting. How do we know? It's simple. They'd first have to get the mega-cap tech,

and now they'd have to get all the things turning up. Oh, and by the way, the new yearly high list is now picking up. Guess which? The broad market. So they're in lies. And as always, if anything changes, we'll let you know. But June 2nd was that day. Envidia Day was that day. And since, haven't seen anything to argue with just yet. And again, if things change, we'll let you know. How far it goes, how long it lasts. Unknown. Pay no attention to the perm of bulls that are out there, patting themselves on the back.

When they lost their, you know what's during the bear market. And just remember, they're the broken clock right twice a day. And pay no attention to the perma bears right now because they're going to keep talking things down and we just don't care. Kind of simplistic, right? Now, the Fed's tomorrow. No clue how the market's going to react. If they decide to sell it off a little bit, wouldn't be surprised because of the froth, the bullishness.

But if we keep going, wouldn't be surprised either. The technical condition as such has improved that much. That be the best way I can put it. And when you have a chance, go look at two charts, the MDY and the IWM, and you will see two charts of the smaller midcaps turning up. We'll keep a watchful eye on it for any changes, but as of the close today, did not occur. The other part of the equation we'll be doing now is gauging. What ain't going up?

It's easiest to isolate weakness when the market's getting stronger. Are the areas that have put in lows here that I wouldn't touch? I'm no fan of the energy stocks. I'm still not seeing what I would call umph. O-O-O-O-M-P-H. Other areas, a little bit different. We'll keep you apprised. Mui importante.

Pay attention to price. Everything else is noise. And let's hope this has a ways. to go. We're all for it. Today's market brought to you by Investment-Dashmottles.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either

in or out of the market. It was proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. 145 Dow. NASDAQ 11, NASDAQ 100, 116, and they try to sell it off twice today. Transport's 143. Advanced declines darn good and new highs picked up.

I actually going to have to spend a little time tonight on the new highs. Life was easy when there were only eight, but that just tells you everything you need to know about the broad market. Anything else stuck out? The semis are up 42. 1% in change. They tried to sell them down, couldn't. And soon as NVIDIA started lifting again.

Up next. This, that, and the other thing. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors, Ed. Hey, it's Jay Shetty from On Purpose. Check out the best of a moment we did, presented by eBay. I'd never owned a vintage camera before. There was something about it that felt almost unnecessary in a world where everything lives on our phones.

But I wanted to change that. So I started the hunt for a point-and-shoot camera. When I finally found the perfect one on eBay, I didn't keep it to myself, I left it out on a table. Always within reach, people started picking it up without asking, family, friends, everyone to take a photo of whatever felt important to them in that moment. There was no editing, no retakes. You took the photo and that was it. The moment became real right away. It was about choosing something. Deciding this matters,

even if it came out blurry, the vintage camera belonged to the room, to the moment, to the people in it. Over time, the photos started to pile up on the fridge, on shelves tucked into books. Each one a reminder that meaning isn't always planned. That's what I appreciate about eBay. It's a place where you can find things that bring people together and pass along things you no longer need so they can become part of someone else's memories. To listen to more, check out the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. Visit eBay.com to shop your favorite finds. Find what you love, sell what you don't. eBay, things people love. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative. of horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Colour. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. Just so you know I got to sit down a few times today and get up.

How about that? That's how bad the back has been. You know you're in trouble when you can't sit down and get up. That's been my last three weeks. The best news is I'm off the freaking stairways. I can tell you I was on TV today and I played myself back. I got that moon face from the steroids. You have to just take it them for a few days.

And I got news for you. They are miracle drugs. But man, some of them side effects. Anyway, you all stay well, be well, and never get bad back pain. It's no fun. It's not the news. It's how the markets react to the news. Lesson time here from your handsome and buffed host, Gary Kay.

I want to backtrack and do a couple of things with you here. Everything we do is rules-based. And when I personally break the rules is when I screw up. I let go of a couple of winners in the last few weeks after making double digits in short order. And we've had this outlier event and I missed out on bigger gains. I take that back. I didn't go against my rules consciously. In real time, man, that much in that short period of time, on that big of a name,

in a market that's still not getting going. And it just so happened, Nvidia happened. Rules. One of our biggest rules is not the news. It's how the markets react to the news. In bullish phases, bad news is bought up and good news is really bought up. In bare phases, good news is sold down and bad news is crushed. In both phases, people don't understand how can that happen to the upside.

In bare phases, people ask themselves, how can that happen to the downside? and you know that thing. Wait a minute. That was the big leading stock of the last bull market. How is it down 70%? Rules. One of the big rules is in bare markets. A lot of the prior big winners of the bull market will drop 70% or more

because at the end of the bull cycle, they became over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged. And you've already seen what's happened. there. Rules, the bigger the gap off of the bigger surprise on earnings and sales, especially when it's not after a huge run. In other words, if a stock, if we're late in the bull market and a stock's already at a big run and gaps up, no good. If we're early and a stock gaps up, Huge. Very meaningful. So we are watching that. Rules. O'Neill has the acronym CanSlim. One of the letters is N. And that's new. New management, new products, new inventions, new wonder drugs,

new technologies. What did we just get on NVIDIA Day, May 25th? First off, you ready? huge gap, huge volume, huge beat of sales, and on new artificial intelligence. What's happened since that day? I don't mind saying these two words. Holy crap. Stocks that would never move in three years or two years. have made moves off of artificial intelligence. And they're taken advantage of it.

Companies that really are on the fringes, oh, artificial intelligence, this, artificial intelligence, that are official, and they're on the move. And we're learning new things every day, like Adobe. On Envidia Day, the stock made a move from 374 to 392. it was dead money. We're finding out that they have, by the way, they report earnings tomorrow,

they have this artificial intelligence type software thing about that I'm trying to, I'm learning on. And the stock is gone topside. And I got newsfea. They can report crappy numbers tomorrow and probably still won't go down because of artificial intelligence. That's the N in what. what they call cancel them. So rules. We explained to a rules where, hey, I made good money,

but I left myself without a couple of stocks I should be in right now. And how do we get better? By kicking our own arses. And if I can make double digit in three weeks, which is darn good, and selling they keep going higher and I'm P-Oed at myself, that means I'm getting better. Rules. So just letting you know as we move forward, we are going to stay rules-based. And one of the rules is be careful about buying in the redwood trees. There's a few names that are not in the trees. They're in the redwoods. And they can keep going higher. But they also, if they decide to take them down, oh, 10, 15% drops quickly. stay tuned you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like we do it's quite simple

take care of you back make sure you hug your family hug your children they will feel better you will feel better have a great one everybody tomorrow i'm not sure about tv but we'll be back same time tomorrow with the radio peace out all thanks for joining bye bye this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,

APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APU.org. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeCompert. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected.