Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - CONTINUATION BUT SOFTWARE STILL CRUMBLING [04.09.2026]

Episode Date: April 9, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Thursday.

It is April 9, 2006, right? Hope you're having a good day. We got lots to do. Ladies and gentlemen, how do I put this? What we try to do most is to guide, and we feel like we are at our best when things are swirling around, and there's a lot of money to be lost, a lot. And sometimes it's crazy stuff, where you're buying this. zero sales companies, and you've got to blame yourself.

But then they're what I call outliers, outliers. And there's one going on in the market right now that we have just warned you about, not based on fundamentals, but based on the roadmap. We have explained to you that there's a roadmap of bull and bear markets. There's a physicality of bull and bare markets. And they trace out a certain way all the time. Not perfectly in line, but pretty much so. And if you ever been on our webcasts, especially when we do our lesson,

on the webcasts, you would know. So first, let me state this is Investor's Edge, serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, wars, tariffs, the straight of Hormuz and all that other crap, that we won't do much on today. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at gary k.com.

We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And we'll also post it on the Biz TV YouTube channel. And if you'd like to email me, you just got to be nice. Disagree, all you want. But be nice. We'll be nice back unless you like Hamas and terrorists. So the market was up again.

today after being down early and the market was up again today even though oil prices were all over the place today and there was a lot of news today but oil prices were up and the market was still up that's good but I have to state for the record again we really hope you listened on the software industry. We are being told that artificial intelligence is, I don't know if the words, killing the industry, destroying the industry, hurting the industry, going to do this, that, or the other thing to the industry. I have another article in front of me about AI taking jobs.

has replaced work for 20% of full-time employees in the U.S. a survey says. In a new survey released Thursday, a nonprofit AI research center found that half of American adults, half of American adults, used AI in the past week, either for personal or work use, with 20% of full-time workers saying that AI has taken over parts of, of their job. Okay. But there's a bigger story

on what it may do to software companies. And sometimes it's not what people say or the articles that are written or the analyst's commentary that matter.

It is absolutely positively price. And we have been warning about price for a while. In fact, it was early November

when the software exchange traded fund broke the 50-day moving average. But also on that, you already had Oracle

top-out even though the numbers were unbelievably strong, amongst others that topped out months in advance, like a Salesforce.com, like a service now. And by the way, some of these you may not know, but they're not fly-by-nights. These are some serious, I bet you've heard of Intuit,

which topped out in July. And all we have said to you since that time, just avoids, there was one moment, late February we said, for the first time they're trying. They're trying to put in a low. That within days they rolled over.

So, just to give you an understanding, Adobe. This is no fly-by-night. They do $24 billion in revenues. March of 24, it was $638. It's $229. This one's topped out early. Salesforce.com.

They do about 41, $42 billion in revenues. This topped out December of 24 at 369. It's 170. Microsoft, Almighty, topped out at 553.72, October of 255.25, late. It's 373. That's Microsoft.

And we're not in a bare market. you would think a bare market would do that. Oracle, 345 to 137. I'm rounding out. Since mid-September. Oracle. S-A-P, the huge German software company, 313 to 164.

Into it, 813 to 361 since July. By the way, a bunch of these are at new yearly lows. HubSpot topped out at $881. It's 205. It topped out February of 25. By the way, their last quarter's earnings were up 33%. Revenues were up 20%. Workday, you've heard of them.

Topped out in March of 24th, 311, it's 113.13. Service now. Topped out at 240. It's 89. And again, these are not fly-by nights. These are some of the most important software. We mentioned the biggest ones first. CrowdStrike was down $32.

Today, it's gone from $567 to $394 since early November. Z-scale, another software security. for this one. 336 to 122. Snowflake, oft mentioned, 280 in November, to 132.

Up next, we'll put a little more of a stamp on this. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I bet you never heard of Guidewire Software 272 to 124 in less than a year. symbol team

242 by the way I'm not making this up 242 to 59 242 to 59 earnings last quarter up 27 revenues up 23 what's wrong with that

I can do more I don't think I need to I think I've made my point uh symbol mdb 444 to 229 since January. Palantir 207 to 130 and was down another 10 today in a strong market. All I can tell you is I don't know where these things land. Shopify 182 to 112. Again, not fly-by nights. Some very important stuff. I bet you've never heard a quality.

Q LYS 155 to 76 from November. Why are we doing this exercise today? It's pretty simple. There's been no bad news. Manhattan Associates 247 to 124. I haven't heard any companies come out and say, we're guiding lower. our numbers are getting worse.

Haven't heard any of that. But you know what else I haven't heard? Oh, here's one. Octa 127 to 67. You know what else I haven't heard? Defense, I would have thought that some of these companies that have seen their shareholder wealth

bludgeoned come out to defense. defend. You know what you usually get. Artificial intelligence not going to affect us. Here's our numbers going forward. We're just fine. I don't think I've seen any of that at all. We did see one day where CrowdStrike was up because somebody said something, but it wasn't CrowdStrike. Somebody else announced something. So it has me scratching my head about where these things going to land. But the great lesson is, as we say to you, when something tops out, we never know how bad it's going to get. We never know if it's going to be just a correction. an average bare market or one hell of a bare market. We never know if all heck's going to break loose.

All I can tell you, I'm stunned, but the roadmap has kept us away. Not even a shred of interest in some of the most famous names. and again, stunned, and do not forget, most of these still have strong buy ratings, buy ratings, defended on a daily basis. And we're not ripping on anybody, but they're fundamentalist. They look at numbers,

they look at earnings, sales growth, and I got to figure they're pulling their hair out. I haven't heard anything untoward on these companies. Maybe we'll get it down the road. Don't know. We just wanted to start this because they're clipping them again today. And in a very big way. In the midst of the market, getting better.

So what's the lesson? When we call tops, you should listen up. But again, there would have been no way, shape, or form would I have ever believed, unless we were going into a brutal bare market, would I think these stocks would be doing what they are doing right now. and it's a lesson for me, a lesson learned, that anything is possible. And we hope you listened. Because let me repeat one more time, these are good companies.

As I said to you, I haven't seen any earnings falling off a cliff, which you would think was going to happen. and it hasn't yet. Maybe it will happen soon. Maybe it's going to happen down the road. All I can tell you is the market has taken out a machete and cut these suckers off at the knees and some at the hips. All this while the semiconductors and that are, artificial intelligence trade continues to do their thing as they had another good day today.

And my guess, remember how we talked to about portfolio managers and their meetings? My guess, and I think it's a pretty darn good guess, is they're in their meetings in the morning. and they're looking at their sheets and they're like how much of that do we have? I'll explain that up next on Investor's Edge. We're listening to

America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb It comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him

So these funds have to be pretty fully invested. So you've got these trillions of dollars in technology funds. And one would think they're pretty diversified in different areas of technology. Software, Internet, artificial intelligence, semiconductors. fiber optics, memory, all that crap. And they have fear in greed just like the rest of us. They have fear in greed just like the rest of us. And they get in their meetings.

And let's say they've got $10 billion bucks technology. And it just so happens, two billion. billion are in software stocks. And they just continue to watch them to melt down. Well, there comes a point in time where they're crying uncle. How much of this do we have? I don't give a crap that it's Oracle.

It's down 60%. And guess what happens when they sell? It has to find a place. And where do you think it's going to go? What's the next question asked? What's working? And what's working will then tend to feed on itself. And that's what you're seeing in the semiconductors right now.

That's what you're seeing. That's what you're seeing in artificial intelligence. Slash memory, fiber optics, data, storage, and all that. And you know, we get out of that. The analysts of those portfolio managers, one of them came out today and raised sand disk $250 higher than his last target. That's also part of the process. And I think that's what's going on because the last couple of days. yesterday they opened the markets hot remember that they immediately sold off all the software

while buying up sand disk sea gate western digital semiconductors and the like there's your story so we're just letting you know mui importante just assume we're just assume we know what a good top looks like also know that we don't know what it turns into but we do know when a process is going and we have some of these names down 70 percent seven zero do not forget that and then these the other part the froth they are murdering we call it the slow death the no-sale stuff we warned we didn't know when they would top out but we warned in that vertical move in September of last year and all we said to you listen if nothing changes if nothing changes and they still have no sales when they do go into a bare market

they will drop huge how do we know well we've Gone through bull and bear markets. We studied them. And we didn't know if it would last another year or two years. We've seen froth and speculation go for a while. Well, just so happened. It topped out the next month. And all I can tell you now, it's the slow death drops now.

There's no hype anymore. There's no touting. There's no shouting. I don't hear anything about rare earth and Donald Trump anymore because we were getting that news every day and I've seen a couple of these names down 80% from the tout here's one 16 to 6

no sales Rare earth where it stops we don't know and as we said the other day to impress upon you The one that was touted most was this O KLO, nuclear. 194 to 47, three quarters. And as we said to you, still with a $7.4 billion market cap. It was a SPAC at $10.

Will it go back to $10? I don't know. All I know is all of them pretty much are in death drops now. Now, will any of them become big time? Probably. I see no sales companies become huge. It's happened before, but the odds are not very good. So just to put the whole bow tie, we just wanted to put a little bit of a, just so you know, the other side, because the market's rallying. had another good day today in spite of oil prices going up and I'll let you read the news and stuff

I always stay on top of things I don't even know where things stand at this juncture over there a lot of moving parts and a lot of yapping going on there there were stories out today that we spoke with Israel about attacking Lebanon and Israel said, oh, we'll stop,

and that helps the negotiations. So oil prices came down, but at the end of the day, they rallied back up. So who the heck knows? All we can tell you, the best stocks right now in the Dow Caterpillar hit a high today. Amazon's coming on The banks a little bit better But not a lot of great leadership at this juncture Semiconductors

That AI trade Improvement in other areas Little better in financials Little better in retail today Housing bouncing a little bit Transport strong I'll give them their due But when I looked at my left screen today

beat red and pummeled pummeled six seven eight percent in a lot of those names but getting back the other side semiconductors semiconductor equipment some secondary semiconductor stocks

and just improvement elsewhere and now the big indices are going to come upon soon the trading range do not forget before The war. The big indices were just in a trading range. Will we break out of them to the upside? I sure hope so. I will tell you this. I'm impressed that oil, I think, closed around 90, 91 today, and we're not lower. I think the stock market has done a yeoman's job. I would have thought would have been much lower in the market. That would have been a guess based on I paid 458 at the pump. Based on we just got GDP revision, it wasn't 7 tenths a percent, it was five tenths of a percent.

Though I think the quarter just ended probably coming better, probably one and a half, which is still subpar. and of course the job market had a good month last month month before that stunk six months out of the last year stunk so market's doing a pretty darn good job but range bound

past six seven months up next what else we got for you we'll figure it out I'm Gary this is the one only investors edge you're listening to what we're waiting for what you're waiting for

one two Ready go. In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da. You know what my favorite thing to do at the end of the day? I get to go look what our politicians have traded. And boy, they're a bunch of corrupt little watchmadugis.

It is so demoralizing. That's somebody on a health care committee trading in health care stocks before news. Becoming rich. On the defense committee, trading in defense stocks. They hate us. I think they laugh at us. I think they take that certain finger, not the pinky of the thumb, but the one right in the middle, and just aim it right at us.

Do you know what's popular on X right now? there are outfits that actually report all these trades. And it's stunning. And they know, they absolutely know that these things are being reported. They absolutely know it's out in the public. They absolutely know, yet they don't care. They absolutely know that they're being watched.

They absolutely know it's just pure corruption. Oh, wait a minute, I didn't know anything. Oh, really? You should see some of the timing. Doesn't boggle the mind. Anyway, just my thoughts. I have no love for any of them. And again, it is demoralizing that these people are voting on our future. And of course, all the insider trading before big announcements, that's going on also. And there's nothing we can do about it. And it's Democrats and Republicans, Republicans and Democrats.

Just letting you know, the Masters today, I must tell you that I am also demoralized on that in that you cannot buy aftermarket tickets for the Masters anymore. I don't know if you know that. I can't go on Stubhub or anymore. You can only get in the lottery because the Masters, their badges,

and you can only win them in a lottery. And I used to get them from one of these aftermarket and go. But now they are picking them up, kicking people out. They're very strict. Do you know who Mark Kalkavec is? He's an ex-professional golfer. I don't know if he's on the senior tour. They kicked him out of the Masters because he was on his phone.

You can't have a phone at Augusta. Just so you know, all the patrons that go in, you cannot have a phone. I remember on the 16th Green, a few years back I was there. And I guess two people bet on who was closer to the hole. Two people were ting up to the par three. And I guess the guy who won the bet kind of, yeah, I won. They kicked his ass out. Saw another guy that was sitting on a golf cart behind the 18th.

They kicked them out. And you know what else happens? Whose ever badges those are? they get taken away. So if you got it from somebody, a family that's had it for 40 years, they lose it. Anyway, we're a little bit upset with the masters.

And the only way, well, you go into a lottery now for their big clubhouse. I forgot the name of it. It costs 17,000 bucks for the week. So talk about the little guy getting kicked into you know what's again. That's what's happening

with the Masters and I wrote to them they did not write back and that's the master's story and leading right now is is Sam Burns and Macalroy

tied for the lead I didn't take McElroy in my watch a medugge Sheffler minus 3 after 9 I didn't take McElroy this year. Dorn it. I did Dishambeau instead as my main guy, and I think he's over par. Well done, Gary.

I never said I was good at golf betting. We'll walk into tomorrow. I don't know what the next news is. All I can tell you, the market is starting to ignore bad news. That's all I can tell you. the market is starting to ignore bad news. The market is starting to ignore higher oil prices. And I must tell you, before yesterday, we did have a clue.

And I ignored it. And rightfully so, because we didn't know it was next. But we had that one day where oil prices, I believe it was last Thursday, before good Friday. Oil prices were up 12 bucks that day and the market was still up.

I guess that would have been a good clue. Are we off to the races? If we break out of the six to seven month trading range in the big indices, you shall hear from us. That would be what I would call a nice multi-month breakout of range.

You're still a good 1,200 points in the NASDAQ. The Dow, I believe you are still, oh man, you're still about 2,300 Dow points. And the S&P, a little bit on the closer side, 6824, 7,02. And there you have it. You all have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children.

They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will. Be well. Have a great evening, anybody. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com.