Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Continued software implosion [02.03.2026]

Episode Date: February 3, 2026

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Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It was another crazy day in the market, February 3rd, Tuesday, 2026. Hope you having a good day. As always, serious talk on everything.

everything that affects you, we'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the Morlocks out of Washington, D.C., the latest housing they're going to be talking about. And our government wants to, I wouldn't call it a takeover of housing, but wants to get neck deep into housing. when it was government that has caused the whole housing distortions. We'll do a little bit of that. And of course, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed.

And if you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. By the way, it'll also be on the Biz TV YouTube channel. We're going to go, how do I put this? Tit for tat. I am going to go through sectors and sectors and sectors in the market, what they're doing, how they're looking, bullish, and all that. And as always, we are not telling you what to do. It is your money. You get to decide. Simple as as that. Fair enough? Cool. Where do I even want to start? I'm going to go with oils. Weeks ago, we had said to you, we're going to take oils off the avoid list. And what that

means was we thought their downtrend was over and we'll see what comes of it. Well, all we can tell a lot of its turn bullish. You have Exxon broke out of a one-year base. It's moving. Chevron broke out of a one-year base. It's moving. Schlumbergerie, Halliburton. If you look at the ETFs,

the X-L-E is the big oil. That broke out a range. Now, mind you, the XLE is still trading where it was like at 09, but we deal in the here and now, and it's on the move. The OIH is the oil services at a new yearly high. Keep in mind, oil services topped out, the OIH at 1,5 at 08, it's 340 today. no, we're not making that up. Seriously, we're not making that up. But it is oils.

Now, there's a good news, bad news on that. You're going to be paying more at the pump. Oil prices, they gaped down yesterday, right back up today. It looks like the best way I can describe it, uptrend. How long don't know, how far I don't know. Oil prices have not broken above the year high, but they're getting close. The USO 8458 is the high of 8357 was the high last June. We're at 77 and change.

Keep in mind, higher oil prices are good for oil stocks. They are bad for the consumer. as well as, just remember, products made with petroleum, there's a bazillion of them. That's number one. Oils. Let's skip a little. Bitcoin. So Bitcoin has been in a bare market.

We have been telling you to avoid. And what we always are doing on a daily basis when something is in a bare market, is you look for light at the end of the tunnel. What do you look for? Selling climaxes, washing out, and what that means is it's down big on a day, volume is heavy,

and it reverses a lot. Well, as you know, Bitcoin and crypto are not stocks. They trade as stocks, but they are whatever they are. you can define whatever they are. So it's tougher call. They trade 24 hours a day. So tougher.

Recently, both Bitcoin Ethereum, we don't even look at the rest of them because it's all BS, broke below the recent eight weeks of lows and have done nothing but go down since. But let me tell you what happened today, and if I was to take any light at the end of the tunnel, let me give you the I-B-I-T, which is a Bitcoin proxy. It hit 4130 today, which broke the yearly low going back to last April, and finished at 4330, above the yearly low. The lows of last April. And volume was pretty heavy.

Still finished down on the day. But maybe near term, maybe. I wouldn't call it a big washout, but maybe near term a low. It would still be in a bare market on any bounce. it's still in a void and we're not talking about on a trading basis because on a trading basis

you can make money on a daily basis you can make money in an hour anyway that's the crypto and of course going with that excuse me the coin base and the micro

strategy have both been obliterated and they will move in kind of I don't know total lockstep Micro Strategy a lot more cause its leverage. Coinbase that is talked about every day on TV. You got to own, got to buy it.

It's gone from 402 to 179 since October and 263 down to 179 in the last three weeks. And micro strategy has gone from 457 to 133 since July. and again, you're welcome. Because as you know, we warned you that this whole micro strategy, whatever they're doing. Others have used the word scheme. We use the word weird. We have never understood anybody recommending it because all it is now is an owner of Bitcoin and leveraged. And with Bitcoin being a bare market, that leverage is going to kill it.

Thus, it has gone from 457 down to 133. Yet the CEO goes on TV, nonplussed. Yeah, we're good. No problem. That woman from the ARC funds went on TV two days ago and said it's going to 1.5 million by 2000. I must tell you, if I was on that show debating her, I'd probably throw some four-letter words at her, because that would be a 20-fold move in four years. And that is asinine, ass-a-ten, ass-11, and complete irresponsibility on her part. And coming from somebody that's down 50% since 21 in her main fund.

Well, you know what I think. That's the type of stuff that pisses me off because a lot of people have lost a lot of money in it listening to those type of idiotic predictions. And that goes for anyone with predictions like that. What's the guy that keeps saying he's called everything right for 20 years and he's been wrong every time? Been calling for crashes for another two years. another guy with the books sold all his gold a year ago and bought Bitcoin we'll leave it at that

we'll keep watching we'll let you know if anything changes crypto remains in a bare market but maybe today maybe maybe next what have we done? Oils and crypto yay

up next we're going to go through a litany of things we'll do gold and silver next because that's as spack stick as spas that can be. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs. All to assist you.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So, we had a climactic move. in gold and silver and you had just an absolute major league drop in two days in fact a stunning drop I would call it one for the record books silver dropped from 109.83 let's call it 110 that was Thursday. The low yesterday was 68. 1.10 to 68, that would be 32, 42 points on 110. That's like nearing 40%. In two days, after going up 100% in about eight weeks. What we said to you in the last couple of days off of this, It was pretty simple.

We have no edge. They can keep selling it down. They can bounce it up. We said to you though, typically, you're going to get violent, vicious moves now. And today, boy, they gaped them up. Keep in mind still way off the highs. SLV, I believe right at the open,

was a little over 80 bucks. Closed at 77 up 6%. But you're still leaving. You're still leaving that vicious drop. Gold, not as wild, but went from 510 to a low yesterday of 422. In two days. Last I looked, that's 88 bucks on 510. What is that?

16% or something like that? Dang. They gapped it up today. Finished up. Let's see, they gapped it up about 26 bucks. And it finished right there. but leaves it way below the highs. Let me repeat, I've got no edge in telling you what happens next.

I really don't. Whenever you get moves like this, they're random. You can have an up day, a down day, but typically you're going to get some waffling around back and forth, And we'll see how it goes. If you owned it and lived through this drop, God bless you. You're better than me. I would give it a shot.

But if by chance, it rallied back up within, let's, I don't know, especially silver. If silver got back to, and the SLV got back to like 90, boy, would I jump? we'll keep you informed. There's your silver. Let's go the other route. We have been about as bearish as bearish can be on software stocks.

They murdered them again today. They absolutely murdered them again today. I don't even know where to start. The best way I can start is by going Microsoft was down another 12 bucks today

the head honcho top dog big cheese down another 12 SAP the head hancho top dog big cheese in Germany down 10

Adobe down 21 salesforce.com down 14 things like Intuit Holy crap, into it. Down 53 to 434.

Crowdstrike 17. Snowflake, 17. Z-scale. 12. Fabernet 51. I can continue, but I've made my point. And all I know I've been getting emails from people stating, it is because of AI. and I'm not smart enough to know if it's AI or not. But let me read something to you that I got.

There's a company called Anthropic that will go public this year. They have these artificial intelligence productivity tools. They came out with new ones. And the next line says, those delta blow to data service companies including Intuit, S&P Global, that by the way, that's SPGI, that dropped $59 today, fax set, Thompson Reuters, Equifax, and others. The slump extended to private fund managers that bet heavily on the software industry's future. what that means is black rock was down 50 bucks blackstone was down seven bucks ever core was down 16

bucks apollo was down 6 bucks kkr 11 bucks a r yes down 14 bucks br down 12 so we're just letting you know our call on software if you listened saved you a crap load of money and i have to tell you I'm surprised how vicious and how bad it has gotten. If I was just to look at the software, I would think that the NASDAQ was down 20% from the highs. But fortunately, that semiconductor and data storage and that crap save the day and offsets. But leave no doubt remains a bare market in software stocks. By the way, synopsis down 39 bucks today. TRU down 10.

T-T-A-N down 7. VRSK down 21. Workday down 12. HubSpot down 30. It's a holy crap moment for me in that we always say to people, when a process starts up or down, You never know how bad it's going to get. And dang, up next, we'll work through the rest.

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bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. All right. Let's continue. You ready? Envidia. Maybe a kick save today. So, NVIDIA has not been riding with the Semiconductor Index for whatever reason.

Today, NVIDIA was down 9, and in the last half hour only finished down 5 and a quarter. Still rolling over, but a save made. 17760 was some support held. We'll see what the next few days have in store. But Nvidia, at the very least, at the very best, is a hold. It has no umph. It's losing relative strength. And certainly one of the weakest of the semis to go along with Broadcom.

And that one got a little saved too today. Only finished down 11. I remember it was down 20 earlier in the day. But I can tell you in the last half hour, quite the little save in the market. And just so you know, the Dow today was down 500. Then about 215 rallied to be only down 160. The NASDAQ was down 500 and rallied still down 336. And the NASDAQ 100 was 400.

But big end of day. move to save the day and keep the big indices, we'll call it in shape. The NASDAQ finished just below the 50-day move-in average. And in the lower half of today's bar, but that's a lot better than the low of today's bar. And the same goes for the NASDAQ 100. The Dow was withering. That finished darn well in the upper level by the way

the Dow today early in the day hit let me get that number right so you know how crazy today was 49653 it was it dropped 820 points

to the low in the late 2 o'clock hour and then rallied up about 400 to be down 166. So quite the crazy day, but the outcome is still software looks terrible. Lesser tech looks terrible. Names like Spotify and Shopify, ooh, I got to throw one more out to you. And I didn't see any news. And I'm looking for news. And if you guys find any news, please let me know.

booking holdings and Expedia were both mauled today. Malled. Same group. Booking holdings down 477 bucks, 9% it is a high price name. And Expedia down 15% today. So we're throwing that one out to you as just another place that looks like, uh-oh, which takes me to the other side, metals and mining. Very strong day.

Copper, aluminum, steel, and that stuff. Just up trends. Southern copper. You know, when they hit all the metals on Friday and yesterday, Southern copper got hit right back up, up $22. CRS, which is specialty cobalt and whatever, got hit when everything hit, up 27 bucks today, 8%. New Corps, steel dynamics. Kemeco, which is uranium, that's another.

So there's metals mining, strong. And really, oils, metals, mining, strong. housing a better butt what am I mean by but well I noticed Toll brothers today breaking out early in the day in fact was up nine finished up 98 cents and tucked its head in like a frightened turtle so I'm not so sure they're ready

and they're way off the highs today but I am definitely on gonna watch but I think that had to do with the government news and may I state for the record, it nauseates me. I am rooting for this president, but it is so depressing to see what kind of socialist this man is. Having government in every freaking industry, and it's demoralizing. Picking winners and losers, and it's not what I want to see.

It is not what made this country great. government is the one running 38 trillion of debt. Last I look, corporate America is not. But you got almost three more years of the president, and I gather we're going to see a lot more. And don't tell me I'm TDS. I'm wishing them well. I'm hoping for the best. So housing, we think got juiced by that.

Transports. Son of a gun. you know what the strong stock FedEx do you know FedEx this week is up 10% new all-time high numbers are a okay nothing special

would just let you know the delivers of things rails truckers the FedEx just strong UPS not very Yes, not very strong.

FedEx would be the name. So transports strong. Dang. And that is quite out of the norm. They have really not led in a very long time, but I can tell you right now, they're strong. And go take a look if you want.

IBM, I didn't see any news. And the market turned, I said, what time in the 2 o'clock hour? IBM at $285, down $30 and rallied up $10. And that was part of the Dow coming back. $10 on a Dow stock is 65 points. I didn't see any news. But they were kicking IBM in the teeth. And I still don't see anything to cause it to drop.

And if any of you see any news on it, let me know. Chipotle. Well, what have we told you here? So I love Chipotle. I get the chicken bowl. And if they're skimpy on the chicken, I'll ask for more. And if they don't want to do it, I get the double chicken. with the mild, the corn, whatever else.

And all I can tell you, whenever I go, it's not as busy, nearly as busy as it used to be, not even close. And I also think there may be a little overbuilding. Where I live, they just put a new one up. I don't think they needed to. There are two others within maybe three miles. and the one that they just put up,

yeah, Chipotle is down about 10% in the aftermarket. I haven't seen the numbers yet, but the stock has been withering. And I don't think they do anything really bad. It's just a very tough competition for your dollar right now. And I know there was talk about size and how much they put in, but I don't think that's a big deal.

And I don't think they've cracker-barreled it. You know, crack-a-barreled, I mean, they basically, I don't know what the hell they're doing over there. Anyway, sometimes you can see things with your eyes. You can experience them. Our greatest one we've ever done here is for one year, we did Kmart versus Walmart and Target. I would come on the show once a week,

just let you know Kmart empty, Walmart and Target kicking butt. A year later, the Kmart shut down with the rest of them. Of course, Target has their own issues. By the way, Walmart trading it an all-time high, which is quite amazing. Up next, few other areas of the market on a very pro-market day here at Investors' Edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Hey, yo. In the aftermarket, I have AMD down about 15 bucks. It's down about 6%. And that can change in a nanosecond.

Just letting you know. I got Amgen in the Dow, up $2. Simple light, that's been one of those strong optical names. I got it up $45, 10%. How about... Nah, that's no big deal. Let's see if this one reported. No, that one didn't report.

That's about it. Yeah, not much else. Cirrus Logic, closed the... Not much. Rest of the week, tomorrow's Eli Lilly, Flextronics, Old Dominion, which those truckers have been stronger.

Uber, which has been weak. After the close, tomorrow's Google, which has been strong. Arm Holdings, which has been dead. Qualcomm. And then Thursday, I do believe it will be... Amazon and a few other, and Reddit, and a few others. So quite.

The whole market today, big save at the close. If we finished at the lows today, I would have called it interesting in that the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 were cleanly taken out the 50 day. At the close, it did not cleanly take it out with just below. I noticed that Goldman Sachs was down 20-something rolling over, only finished down 7. So it was a good save by the end of the day for the big indices. That's the best way I can explain it. And we remain...

The S&P, 50-day moving average, 6870, we had 68, 62. And then finished above it. So we know the important numbers for the big indices. and we'll see how they play them out kids but just letting you know again oils metals mining transports the construction

whatever area of the AI have been back and forth in crazy action good day today and I mentioned transports that's rails things that deliver economically sensitive not everything

but W.W. Granger on earnings today, big one-year breakout. For example. And then there are others that are dead. Insurance very weak. Big banks hanging in there. J.P. Morgan with the big upgrade today back at the 50 day has done nothing for five months now, but at least better day. Regional banks kind of new highish today. strong action in things like PNC and Truist, which is the old SunTrust, and M&T Bank, in shape.

But on the other end, those private equity buyout shops are getting murdered. Absolutely murdered. The semiconductors was down 168 today. The socks. but you know what it was at the lows? 7796, it was down 358. So that came back.

The question is, will AMD harm it tomorrow? I doubt it. Yeah, it's down 6% in the aftermarket, but I doubt it. But if NVIDian Broadcom keep gagging. Now, just letting you know on NVIDIA, Major League big time support is right at that one. 70. You take that out and you have a big, gigantic six-month top, and that would invite more selling. But today, last 45 minutes, they awoke and said, get buying some of that crap. Insurance stocks,

weak. A lot of medical stuff, weak. Retail. Well, there's a lot of, there's. Lulu Lemon, which is in a brutal bear market, but then you have a dollar general, that's strong as heck. So mixed. ADP and paychecks continue to crash, these payroll companies. Is that AI or is that the job market? And the weird thing is, the job market is weak, even though we're told we're getting 5% GD. I must tell you, I've never seen a weak job market and GDP at 5%. So I don't know what the hell's going on.

I'm just letting you know ADP and paychecks, new yearly lows. 401 new yearly lows on the NASDAQ today and 209 new yearly lows on the New York. So it is, without a doubt, quite the mixed bag of a market right now. if you are not in the right areas, you are getting smoked. And if you are neck deep in software and what we call lesser tech, you are getting smoked. Payroll type companies, PayPal, down 20% today to $41. And as you know, we have complained about their service and their website. they need to fix that crap up or else so a lot of jello moving on the plate here a definitive

an absolute definitive saved today from a harrowing early part of the day now when the market was at its lowest transports were still up but But they went from up 500 to up 180, but finished up 380. Metals and mining were still up, but got better at the end of the day. And then there's the Nvidia types. It was down over 9, finished only down, 5 in change. I can't wait to scan this tonight. It would be quite interesting.

On that note, oil prices up $2 today. Don't want to see more of that. bonds stable like that. That all said, you have a great evening. We did nothing but the market today. Amazing. Have a great evening.

Drive carefully when you get home to like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. Until tomorrow. Have a good night.

Bye bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.