Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Counter Trend Rally

Episode Date: May 17, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom.

I'm a host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you're listening. It's Tuesday. It's May 17th. It's 2020. Hope you having a good day.

We are pre-taping this show. It's about 24 minutes before the close of the market. Got to start a little early, got to catch a plane. So we'll take you into the close, and it's one of those days where a heck of a lot is going on. And we're doing markets today. And of course, anything else that comes to mind. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, you go to garyk.com. We will post it there.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed where you can listen on many podcast apps. If you want to follow us on Twitter, go to Twitter and put in Gary Colpom or press the button at GaryK.com. You can email me. Just be nice. That's not hard, is it? Just be nice.

And in case you don't know this is Investor's Edge, serious talk on you and everything that affects you. We do markets, but we do the economy, your job, employment, COVID, war, inflation, travel, scams, shams, corruption. Speaking of scams, shams, corruption. That's all Washington, D.C. And much more. And we're dead serious about every dime, regardless whether you are or not. And we really do mean that.

Now more than ever, because the massive amounts of money that have been lost in the noisiest, loudest, most toutal, yeah, toutal, T-O-U-T-E-L or T-O-U-T-L-L-E, the most toutful, I don't even know if toutful is a word, the most touted, of areas. Another stable coin

broke the buck last night. I don't know if you've been reading about this. If you're not in it, God bless you. They have these things called, and I heard of them, and I'm a very red person. I read everything.

I knew there were these things called stable coins, but how anything is stable in coin land is beyond me, and I guess one of them dropped 98%. Another one broke the buck or something that was attached to the... For the life of me, I'm not even sure how they work. I just know price. So one went down 98%. And sadly...

And remember, we... Let me tell you about us. We take no joy. in anybody losing any money. No joy. What we just try to do here is educate a little bit, on mistakes, and we're very careful with our demeanor and our words, unlike somebody on that big network that blasted and made fun of the arc funds where people are losing their you know what's, while we're just sitting here trying to teach you lessons. and we have three words we always say,

protect your capital. First and foremost. And as bubbles always work, the bubbles have been the biggest disasters. Just disasters. So one of these coins, I think it's called Luna, L-U-N-A, overnight.

And I want you to imagine this. try to put yourself in somebody else's shoes, and yeah, they took the risk. Imagine if you had your life savings in something, and they shouldn't have done that. That's such a mistake. But imagine if you did, and you wake up in the morning and it's worthless. Imagine. Well, that's what happened. And I don't know if anybody's getting indicted.

I don't know what fraud was committed. Beats the heck out of me. But imagine that. They actually had to put up a suicide hotline on the website. Now, another one, a stable coin, broke the buck last night. You know, money markets are supposed to never break the buck. You know, you get your money market rates and they don't move. Of course, because at J-Pow, you've got no money market rates for a very long time.

Hopefully, that changes now that rates are inching up. But another coin broke it. And I don't know what that means, but it's been an absolute disaster. We're heartbroken over it. We've done our best here. We've done our best to send the message. For how long have we been saying that it's nothing more than a bubble? forever since it got noisy and had the big run honestly i wish i knew about bitcoin years ago

i wouldn't be doing a radio show now and it's not just the coins themselves it's been the things you know the coin base micro strategy and the people that are involved are so what word am i looking for they talk such a big game while people are being destroyed. I've watched some of them on TV recently, and you would have thought they were up tenfold in the last six months instead of drop down 50 to 80%. They had a marijuana guy on TV yesterday.

He's got to be down 90% in the last year or two. And it's somebody I kind of follow just because he's out there, and he's been touting all the way down from the high, so he's got to be down gargantuan. And he was just, you know, matter-of-factly, yeah, and we, you know, this and that, and they were blaming people. It's the algos, the algorithms. Imagine a stock like Tilray goes from, let's just go March of 21, from 67 down to 5, and you're blaming algorithms? Really?

And by the way, it was 300 back in 18. So again, we're just bringing this up every day right now. We don't know what's next. We don't know if there will be a next, but we still think there are distortions out there. And we just want you to be careful. We don't tell you what to do. Buy sell short a cover. We just tell you what we think.

With not many shades of gray, quite the black and white. And it's been disaster after disaster since February 21 when all the bubbles started popping. but I'll give you some good news. Strong day today as we head into the close. We're going to do a couple of things. Unfortunately, Jay Powell, the central bank had, we don't really want to talk about him, but he wouldn't shut up today.

So we're going to talk about that, but we're also going to talk about the markets. As you know, we thought we're in some sort of little counter-tren rally here. We thought that the semiconductors were showing good relative strength divergence, especially the equipment makers. And we're big believers in semiconductors. What a counter-trend rally is, when a market, stock sector goes too far down, too fast, way farther than the norm, this is to the upside or downside.

They do counter-trend moves, meaning down-10, up three, up-town, ten, down, ten down, down three. And the move down recently has been in 16 trading days the NASDAQ dropped 19%. The S&P 14% in change. The Dow, which isn't supposed to move so much, 12% in change, in 16 days. That's why we would rally. It's not like the world saw something. It's not like. It's not like, oh, look at this, great news. It's not like the Knicks are going to win the championship next year. Wishful thinking. But the Rangers did win in seven.

They're going on to the next series. It's because we drop almost 20, 14 plus and 12 plus on the S&P and Dow. Up next. We'll take you to the end of the day. And much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated.

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So I have said this before on this show, and I don't say it jokingly.

And I don't say it with sarcasm. One of the best Seinfeld episodes is when George was whining, complaining that his life is not what he wanted it to be, that every decision he makes. has been wrong, every decision and instinct. Jerry says to him, well, if every one of your instincts is wrong, the opposite must be right. And they're sitting in their usual cafe, and Elaine's sister George, he ordered a lunch. Elaine says to George, hey, George, that woman was looking at you. And he's like, what am I going to do? What?

What am I going to do? And that's when Jerry said, well, if every one of your instincts right, the opposite. He walks up to the woman and says, I think it was, my name is George. I am unemployed and live with my parents. And she said, hi. And the reason she looked at him because she ordered the same thing. They go on dates. They're in a movie theater.

And two people that, two looking brutish men yelling and screaming and kicking the back of the chairs. And instead of him shying away and leaving, he turns around and starts threatening. hell out of them and they back down, he gets applauded. And then they're in the car. At her apartment, she said, you know, it's early. Why don't you come up? And he says, I don't think we know each other well enough. And she goes, who are you, George Costanza? And he said, the opposite of every man you've ever met. And then he got the job with the Yankees and so on. I say this with no sarcasm. I say this without a joke. The people running this country need to watch that episode and start thinking and doing the opposite of everything they're thinking and doing.

So first off, the most important money man on earth, Jay Powell was out today. And let me tell you what he said. First off, he actually said we need to slow down the economy. We need slower growth because of inflation, which has. They'll never admit that they caused, and hardly anybody says it. Elon Musk is now agreeing with us. Elon Musk directly said in a tweet yesterday that the inflation is caused by money printing. Gee, where has he been 18 months?

Now, I want you to think about this. The head of our central bank wants the economy slower. Do you know what that means? Somebody's going to lose a job. I want you to think about that. Because we think of things in personal terms. A slower economy means less business for business. Somebody can lose a job.

I want you to think about that. He says we must do that because inflation's too hot. And I'm like, wait a minute. Inflation's too hot because you money printed. But we need to. to slow the economy. Why should stopping money printing have that effect? Oh, that's right. So everything they did not admit about markets, they're now admitting by stating other things. I don't want to repeat everything else he said, but it was nauseating. The Marxist party

says in order to control inflation, we must raise taxes. Now, I want you to think about this. We don't just utter words like other people and politicos on TV. You know the hacks. We get in there. Why would it cut inflation for you to take a dollar out of your pocket or a dollar out of my pocket and give it to Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Steny Hoyer, Joe Biden? Explain that to me. You can't. Why? It's a lie. It's a bold face lie. It's just an excuse for them to try and raise taxes. The president keeps telling us, and I don't make this up, a monstrous record $5.8 trillion spending bill, a budget, will lower the deficits and help our debt. What? Why don't the president just stand in front of the camera and say, I think you're a bunch of dumb ass clowns, and we can say whatever we want, you'll believe us.

The opposite of everything and every instinct they have, it's to just get out of the way. They can't turn the lights on in the White House without our tax dollars. It's us. They can't turn the lights on in the Capitol without us. It's us. They can't take a salary. It's all us. And they've all forgotten that. That they work for us. Do you realize if you walked up to Nancy Pelosi and said, I need 10 minutes of your time, she'd wave you off even though she works for you?

Their instincts are control you, take over, run things. And I don't mean just things, everything. Jay Powell said today, and I wish I was making this up. I really do. What he's going to do with the economy. What he's going to do with the economy. We have a $20 trillion economy. 230 million driver's licenses.

A couple of hundred million people working. Big, small, medium-sized companies. And he's going to control that? What can go wrong? Up next. Back on the market as we head to the close. I'm Gary. This is the one known the investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. We're almost at the close.

Jay Powell also said, markets are orderly and functional. Markets are processing are thinking pretty well. Really? 6% of the NASDAQ is down 90%. 25% of the NASDAQ is down 50%. I take that back, 22% of the NASDAQ. 50% of the NASDAX is down 50%.

Interest rates have gone straight north. Bubbles have popped all over the place. bubbles were created all over the place. Wealth has been destroyed for people that did not have a keen eye or stops. Markets are orderly and functional. I don't know what to say. We don't know what to say. They used to say we have tools.

His line today was, we don't have precision tools. It is not in any way a surgically precise set of tools. So he's changed that too. I don't know what to say. So when we report the numbers on the market in a couple of minutes, good up today. Why would that be? Wait, man, I thought Powell's a moron. Because we dropped almost 20% on the NASDAQ, 14.5% on the S&P and 12% on the Dow in 16 trading days.

Simple is that. That's why. And I don't want to repeat everything else, he said, but it's just nauseating. that he is going to attempt to continue to control an economy that he has caused massive dislocations to. And by the way, he's now saying he is going to raise rates until we see inflation coming down, which begs the question, what if it doesn't?

I'm in stunned thought process here. Really am. It is we the people. Not anymore. They don't even pretend. It's not we the people anymore. Preamble is government, government, government. Control freaks, control freaks, control freaks.

We hope this ends up well. We really do. We really, really do. So far they've been wrong on everything. We do not think they can be wrong for too much longer. Okay, market wrap. to you buy Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com at the close. Dow up for 31. No, really. But the Dow dropped everything in context, kids. Just on this leg down, the Dow dropped them almost 355 to 31-2.

4,300 points in 16 trading days. But we're neatly off the lows over the last three. And we actually think we can go higher. S&P up 80, NASDAQ 321. But the NASDAQ on this latest leg down, and this is 16 days, 13710 to 11108. That's 19%. Not to mention if you just go back to March,

March 29th, 14646 to 11108. Holy crap. And by the way, that 14646 is a lower high. Semiconductors have to do better, 146. We did a webcast this weekend that showed how Lamb Research and a couple of others had very good positive divergences. What do you mean by that? NASDAQ's going down. NASDAQ's going down.

NASDAQ's going down. They go flat. They stop going down. That's what we mean. As soon as the NASDAQ gets a bid, they go on the move. That's what's happening here. Transports up 454. Nice.

Good day. We'll take it. We'll take anything. What didn't work today? For day like we had, we would expect a lot better from what we call our higher beta growth page. I got news for you. There are a bunch that were read. The good news by the end of the day, it got a little better, but I would expect a lot better from the high beta growth page. Also of note, and again, everything in context, Amazon was up 90 today. Well, it dropped 1,300 points

since March 29th. It bounced. Google It was up 40 today It just went from 2875 to 2300 That's why Tesla was up 37 today Well it just went from 1152 Down to under 700

That's why it bounced And I can go through everything else in the market And say to you That's why it bounced Financials finally had a decent day J.P. Morgan was up four bucks today. Now this is lower beta financials. It was 170 in February.

It closed at 122 today. That's why it was up. So feet on the ground. We think we'll go higher. But we've had these rallies that have lasted anywhere between one and 10 days since the highs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

11 days. That was the March. We are lower prices. Maybe this lasts longer. The only real leadership remains energy. A few of the staples which were actually down today because the market was less defensive.

A few commodities, a few shippers and a smattering. You know what a smattering is? Oh, one or two stocks here or there that are in a sector that's not doing so great. That's your leadership. On up 400-day new yearly high list, just what I said to you. But we know you guys have 401Ks. We know you guys are neck deep.

We know it's been a rough few months. Any update we're thrilled with. any up day we are thrilled with. That was today. In a pretty much nutshell. Not a lot of earnings out right now. Just a lot of yapping from those central bankers. As I always say, I have no clue about tomorrow.

We'll take today. And I think we're in the midst of a counter-tren rally in a bare market. with a butt today for the first time, definitely some better action in the semiconductors. And I don't think it's a reach that may be a few trying to turn the corner. You know what that means? Enough. That's what it means.

Lamb Research goes from 731 down to 460. Enough. Will it be enough? We'll let a few more cards come out of the day. remember we have no bias agenda or altruiteria motive when it comes to markets we just watch the roadmap we knew nah i take that back we had an inkling we were having a counter-trend move we're in the midst up next we'll wind it up and then i'm to the airport i'm gary this is the one only investors edge this message is brought to you by the capital one venture

X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next. next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300

annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with a limited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. A few other things from today. Walmart was down $17 today.

They missed earnings by a couple of miles. That's a big wow. Interesting that I think that's about 17-749, about 110 Dow points. If Walmart was flat today, we'd have been up 540. but everything counts. Home Depot was up 15 today, then was down 5, and when the market ramped finished up 5, but still off of up 15. I heard some people say, gangbuster earnings.

And I'm thinking to myself, do these people ever do their homework? You know, God bless them, reporters, people on the tube. Do they ever do their homework? Home Depot, gangbuster earnings. They were up 6% year over year. Sales, 4%. Both was a nice little deceleration from the quarter before, in the quarter before, and the quarter before, and the quarter before that.

Now, if they would have said, gangbuster numbers considering this, that, and the other thing, and considering expect, no, just gangbuster numbers. So you've got to always be careful. Even me. I always tell every one of you. Confirm what I tell you. That'll get used to confirming what everybody else tells you.

Some of the things I'll be watching for tonight when I land in New York City and head to my hotel. If too many people are calling the bottom today, that'll be in the file manager. If everyone's still bearish, that'll be in the file manager. We're always looking for reactions on big up days or down days. and how the masses feel. And I always get asked, how do you know how the masses feel? You're in an office.

Very simple. We have coddled together. Cobbled together. Did I say coddle? It should be cobbled together. Boy, oh boy. And I got a speech at a wedding this weekend. Cobbled together just a ton of information throughout the years

on where to get a feel for the masses. And of course, when we use the word masses, we're not out there polling everybody. But there are just certain things we watch. How many puts versus calls are being bought on the market? Newsletter writers, they poll them all. And if they're all bullish, it's usually bearish. And if they're all bullish, they're usually bullish. It's not an indictment on.

It's just how it works. As well as some other things we follow. Hmm, how do I want to say this? there was a great Gilligan's Island episode with wrong way Feldman there's a guy who flew the wrong way all the time anyway there's just some people out there that if they say it's sunny out get out the umbrella it's the best way I can put it we're not naming names if that's okay with you so we'll be watching for that and then of course we'll be scanning the heck out of the market once we get to

to the airport. Take out the laptop, go into the Delta Club, go into my corner, and I scan like a madman. Get it all done in 45 minutes, get to the hotel, do it over again one more time, and we'll get a good feel. The thought process is we're in a counter-trend move. We think there's more to go. We don't know how much, how far, but the fact that we're farther down maybe a little better than the last ones. If we open up 300 tomorrow and finish down, that'll be the end. We do like

the fact, and this is the most important thing, that the semis have a better feel to them. I was watching today, the Dow was up 400 and then Powell initially talked in a drop down to only 150, and the NASDAQ

took a dive down. It was still up 100 as they took it down, it was up big and only up 100, and I just noticed they couldn't sell off the semiconductors in a meaningful fashion. That's what we mean by that. Bucking the trend, as they say. Relative strength confirmation on the positive side, as we stated earlier. So maybe, maybe, again, counter trend rallies are because of the drops. And the last drop we had was one heck of a doozy.

could it be the final drop? We're open to anything. We really are. Want to see some more cards come out of the deck. Probably there's some names that have seen their final drop. Not so sure the plethora of names have seen their final drop. Watch the semis. They'll have a lot to say.

How can the market go up if the Fed's going to tighten like a madman? Well, we can always take the reach and say, well, if they tighten the hell out of things, that means they're going to be raising rates and raising rates and raising rates and they're going to crush the economy and eventually they can start lowering rates. I'm just reaching. Is that okay with you? We're just reaching. So better. And I'm thrilled. We'd rather the market go up. We hate the market going down. Oh, one other note. China. Good day overnight. As you know, they've been shut down. They're going to open up soon. I think that may be going on, and I think that's a big help.

And by the way, to technology, China's become very technologically laden in markets. Maybe a little bit of that going on. Again, open to all outcomes. We'll want some more cards out of the deck. We'll be doing the show tomorrow from New York City office. I will be on with Charles Payne tomorrow at 2 p.m. in studio. Please tune in Fox Business. And until tomorrow, you have a great evening.

Drive carefully. When you get home, do like I'm going to be doing all weekend long. Make sure you hug your family. Hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one, everybody.

Always thanks for joining us. We'll be back tomorrow. Bye-bye all. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual capital

One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.