Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Crappy End To The Week In Review!
Episode Date: August 19, 2022Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And we're once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Friday.
right
August 19th
right
it's
2022
right
we're here to talk about you
and everything that affects you
and your job
your family
your money the markets
the economy
everything from A to Z
hope you are listening
especially
at important moments in time.
If you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on a Twitter feed
where you can follow us,
or you can go to Twitter and put our name in and follow us.
You can email me, just be nice.
You got that?
And if you have something untoward to say,
how about a real email address?
I got a person email me, and I'm pretty sure I know who it is.
Just so you know, it's coming from...
Anyway, they use in my verbiage, ass clown.
And it sends me today, what are the traits of a sociopath?
So I guess they're trying to state maybe I'm a sociopath.
A lack of empathy for others.
No, no, that's not me.
little to no genuine remorse.
No, that's not me.
The manipulation of other people, definitely not me.
Lying and deceit, not me.
A sense of superiority over others.
I have to tell you, I think everybody's superior to me.
Little to no regard for right or wrong.
Oh, I know right or wrong.
The belief that rules do not apply to them, oh, they apply to me.
getting into legal trouble or little regard for the law, I've had no legal trouble.
When I started in the penny stock business in the early 80s, I got into some civil legal trouble and got out of it because they knew I was a good guy.
A lack of responsibility or engaging in irresponsible behaviors.
Let's see, I don't drink.
I don't do drugs.
Which means I don't DUI.
What else?
response.
Aggression or hostility.
Aggression or hostility.
The exploitation of other people.
I don't even know anybody.
And substance use.
Substance use.
Do you know I take, I don't even want to take my cholesterol drug they
prescribed to me.
And the only reason I have high cholesterol because it's in the family.
And now whatever I'm taking really helped out.
It's called Lavallo.
Anyway, I don't know if they're talking about me or somebody else.
But anyway, we thank the emailer.
I'm pretty sure I know who it is, but that's okay.
In the last week, every single day on this show, we've been highlighting for you, massive, ridiculous, over the top, monolithic, stupendous, unbelievable amounts of froth and speculation just weeks off of a low in a brutal bear market.
We told you that has us a little bit worried because what have we said specifically?
We've never seen a real bare market bottom that came with massive amounts of froth and speculation.
And we highlighted that symbol HKD, which is still 170 bucks, and trading at a $33 billion market cap with $24 million in sales.
A Hong Kong name hit $2,550.
And we just warned you in the last few days.
We warned you.
And we state, we're not going to tell you what to do.
We're just going to tell you what we think.
And we told you that Bed Bath and Beyond,
and all these names are going to go back eventually to where they came from.
We don't know if they're going to go higher first,
but please be careful and don't be the last one in.
Well, Bed Bath and Beyond today was down only a measly 40.54%.
And from Wednesday's,
high
down 63.4%.
As the main
what do they call
activists sold a
craplode of a stock
into the move.
Smart dude.
What do we tell you? It's worth
four bucks maybe.
And all of a sudden we're finding out now
they may not be
able to manage their debt.
And remember,
remember we were telling you how people on the boards were yelling and screaming, it's the neggis game stop. Maybe it's going to go to 400. That noise stopped today. And we feel terrible for everybody that has lost their arse in this in just a couple of days. This is the main reason why we do this show is to protect you from the unseemly. And we say this not enough. We hope you listened.
And we say this, no one, maybe it would have gone to 400.
It didn't.
And of course, what did it do?
It took down other, what we call meme stocks, big time.
A lot of 15, 20% drops.
But amazingly, I have to mention something.
Remember, HKD?
Well, that was a Hong Kong-based IPO that went insane.
Then they came out with another one, M-E-G-L, another Hong Kong-based IPO.
$4 IPO went to $250.50.
It's 13.
Well, I don't know who's allowing this.
I must tell you if I was a regulator and I've seen all this, I'm not so sure.
And I know there's rules and regulations about what regulators can do.
they allowed another IPO from Hong Kong to come public at 12 and a quarter yesterday.
Closed yesterday at 1569.
It hit 60 today before closing at 48.
So even today, while they were crushing a bunch of froth in speculation, another one was spun out.
stunning be careful our warning was not a timely warning a timing warning we were not saying to you oh the market's about to get
trashed we were saying to you two things we worry that this is indicative of a market that's going to
get in trouble again because we've never seen this type of activity at bare market lows and of course
stocks have been stretched and extended to the upside and we're just due to pull back.
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Dow down 292.
But we've seen Dow drop 300 points in a day recently.
Is that a biggie?
S&P down 55, NASDAQ, 2.000.
260, NASDAQ 263. The transports just coincidentally, 263. Advanced declines were terrible.
570 up 3452 down on the New York, 943 up 343434 down on the NASDAQ. There were more new lows than new highs on both those major indices.
But today was different. We've had some bad down days. Today was different. On July 19th, we said to you, we thought we
have a broad base low of unknown price and time, which we called back in March at last 13 days.
And there was another one lasted seven. We think that move ended today on a broad basis.
Simple as that. We think the move ended today. Let me repeat that again. We think the move ended today,
knowing we've had days like today. Why do I say that?
that. We have already scanned up to 2,000 stocks, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity.
The bond market. We think the market hit a wall today. Odds favor, there's now going to be
some work to do. The last time we called Tops, the market was trashed into more bare market
legs to the downside. We are unclear of that just yet because the market had a much better rally
this time than the last few times. Major indices are above the 50-day moving average versus below.
That said, got a few more thoughts. Up next, what are those thoughts? And much more. This is the one
only Investors Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So we're going to call this.
start of a pullback of unknown price and time and we'll see what it turns into.
If we have seen nothing more than another big bear market rally like we have seen akin
to like 08 and some others, then the market's going to get trashed.
Otherwise, we suspect whatever we just did, maybe we give back half.
maybe just a third, that would be the guess.
And as we'll do it, we'll do it day by day.
But as we scanned everything put in just about everything, put in what we call near term tops, some worse than others.
And by no coincidence, the 10-year yield on the 10-year went back above the 50 day and
that could be troublesome if it continues.
because as you know, we've been telling you,
the market has been moving in sync with bond yields
and energy prices to a certain extent.
So stay tuned.
Now, this is what you need to be reviewing,
and this is what we would be very careful about,
names that acted poorly on their earnings
because their earnings sucked,
or they lost money,
but then rallied because the market was rallying,
we'd be reviewing those very quickly
because the market will not have tolerance
for stocks that reacted poorly on earnings,
but rallied because the market lifted them.
That's number one.
Number two, money-losing companies.
I'm not so sure the market's going to have a lot of tolerance for all the money-losing companies,
even if they have rallied up in this market and even if they acted well on earnings.
Hey, we lost a dollar 50 a share, but don't worry, everything's okay.
I'll give an example of one.
Uber, $1.32 loss.
They rallied it up with the market.
but in the last few days
as the market was getting a little iffier
stocks already gone from 33 to 29
and we're not telling you to buy sell short a cover
and we don't own any we're not short any
but these are the ones we'd be reviewing
next
if you have stocks
or own any stocks
that haven't rallied in the last six weeks
that's a big review
especially
those names, you know, those bombed out stocks that have been absolutely destroyed?
If any of them could not rally in the last six weeks, we would be all over those.
If any names, bombed out names that rallied up and reported losses recently and acted poorly
and have rolled over badly, oh, we would be paying attention to those.
I'll give you one.
DoorDash.
They were rallying it up with everything, got to 87.
It's back to 65.
They reported a 72 cent loss.
That would be, well, if somebody had transferred that sucker into me,
I would have been out of that a few days ago anyhow.
Last but not least, the new yearly low list.
if you have stocks that are at the new yearly lows right now dudes do debts i'd be getting on those or even close to new yearly lows
i'd be getting on those and it's a simple theme if they couldn't rally them while the market just had a pretty
good counter trend what if the market heads the other way it's quite simple so
So just wanted to mention all that to you.
And of course, the crap.
These frickin' bedbath and beyonds.
These ass clowns that were touting you over the last week.
I didn't see the ass clowns yelling and screaming today.
Oh, I saw one wanting to sue this guy, his name is Ryan Cohen,
who's an activist who decided I'm selling into this.
We should sue him.
Look what he did.
No, he just decided to sell.
Darn.
Hell, if I owned a few million of the bed bath and beyond,
it went from 4 to 30 on a short squeeze by people that amazingly are able to get it done,
I'm selling.
I'd review those.
And last, I have one more.
You know those arc funds?
Well, they've been rallying up a little now they're rolling over because of what we've been seeing here in the last few days and now today.
I'd go look at what they own because I think a lot of the things they own are in the categories that I've just mentioned.
And of course, we'll be here daily to review, and we'll see where this takes us.
Best guess, got some work here.
If we start to think the big uh-oh, we'll tell you the big uh-oh, but I can't do that off of one day.
but it's been getting a little more stalling of recent,
few and more names,
and we've been shown in our webcast rolling over.
Today they did a bunch.
And on the other end, by the way,
you know where the strength was today?
Hershey's, Campbell Soup, General Mills,
Hormel, Kellogg's.
Why would that?
Smuckers.
Cisco, not the technology company.
Why would that be?
When the market starts to go defensive, it buys into the most defensive.
And that's what the money was doing today.
What's the most?
Oh, Johnson and Johnson and Merck and the Dow were up.
Amgen, the biggest biotech, up.
Again, why?
Money will flow into defensive issues when things start to get defensive.
And that's simplistic today.
in plain sight today.
Also of note, the Bitcoin, which never really got going, is already rolling over.
Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin, but that looks to be rolling over too.
Up next, more on what we are seeing.
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So just a few other things. The advance declines are really bad today.
We'll scan tonight. Well, actually tomorrow we're flying tonight.
up to the northeast. Hopefully we get there because I know there's all hell with the northeast corridor.
Just want to repeat, we've seen days like today. The stocks were much worse than the indices,
and a lot of what we call rolling over. You know how we talk the stair steps up?
A bunch of things starting to do that stair step down. Again, we're not sure how bad it gets,
how far it goes, but this one feels a little bit.
different. We think there's some work to be done. It was pretty broad-based, while everything
defensive held up better or was actually up today. So we read a lot. We're readers. But we're very
choosy on where we read and what we read because, man, there's a lot of BS artists out there,
and we know there's agendas and ulterior motives, and you've got to know who's in the tank
and who's not. We're talking about both ends of the game.
Because you know we hate them all. They're a bunch of actors and actresses. That's all they are.
Parading is gurus and experts. You know, there's a bunch of people paraded on TV.
Experts in health. You know, experts in health. That called COVID the flu for three or four months at the outset.
And they're making fun of Dr. Fauci now.
Now, I'm not making a point on Dr. Fauci, but interesting.
There are people out there that are ripping on Fauci when I know for a fact.
For months, they were calling COVID a flu.
Don't worry, it's cool.
And we know them, and we give them no attention.
And we're not going to list names for you.
We'll let you do your own mining on it and decide for yourself.
We don't trust anybody.
at this point in time. We think we're pretty darn smart. We know who's conning, who's not.
We know who gives the straight and who doesn't. So I was perusing today and I noticed something
that I was surprised to read because even though we've been telling you, just letting you know
in Florida, housing, when we look at all the things that are going on, we don't listen to anybody.
We go on these websites. This is the actual. And we're seeing day in and day out more inventory put
onto these websites, new inventory, and no inventory coming off.
We're also seeing days to sale higher and higher and higher and higher.
And then we're also seeing a lot of the homes with a little arrow down and next to it says
50,000 or 100,000, that's dollars, or 150 or some higher price with names a quarter million.
and there's many areas in Florida now that there are crap loads of houses for sale and really nothing moving.
We're also noticing pending sales not getting done.
But little did we know that somebody would report, and here's a headline, housing market slides into recession.
And I'm thinking to myself, you know, I've never looked at.
at the housing market in recession or not just that it's topped and I wanted to look to see what
do they mean by housing market falling into recession here's what they're saying because sales have
dropped about 20% from the same month a year ago that's a recession like in stocks they say if
stocks drop 20% that's a bare market so we're just reporting to you sales of previously owned homes
fell nearly 6% in July compared with June and
sales dropped from about about 20% from the same month a year ago. In terms of economic impact,
we are surely in a housing recession because builders are not building. But if builders are not
building, isn't that actually good eventually? Because instead of more inventory put on,
so we're not sure what they mean, all we can tell you. And we said this to you,
we started saying this year three months ago. It's going to become.
more and more and more and more of a buyer's market and more difficult to be a seller's market,
to be a seller, and the 10-year is back to 2.989, which measures into mortgage payments.
The 10-year was a 2.525 on August 2nd at the low that day, closed that day at 2.7.7.7.5.5.5.5 on August 2nd at the low
that day, close that day at 2.741.
So we're now edging back up and we can promise you.
If yields keep going up and ain't going to be good for the housing business, it's going to be
great for you that are looking to buy.
And here is how it works again.
We explain this to you before.
We'll explain it again.
Before buyers would jumping over each other, fighting each other, you paid $700, I'll pay $7.10.
Oh, you paid 710. I'll pay 720.
Oh, you pay 720? I'll go 7.50.
You know what buyers are doing now?
This. You hear my fingers in the background?
They're twiddling them and they're saying nothing.
And they're doing nothing.
They're waiting.
That's supply and demand.
when demand drops down to minuscule and supply picks up,
eventually somebody moves if they want to sell their home.
Oh, we had it up for 750.
Hey, we're at 725 now.
If nobody bites at 725 and they need to sell, we're at 700.
If nobody, you get my point.
and then if there's 50 other houses in and around those areas with the same kind of sort of price
and that person goes from 750 to 700 guess what those other 50 houses have to do to order to get sold
they have to come down and price or they're not getting sold and that's how price moves
and until we get what we call equilibrium price will continue to come down over time
and what's fighting against the sellers now is A, affordability, and B, mortgages as they go up in price.
And I will let you know, as I look at price in many areas in Florida, they still, in my opinion, have not come down nearly enough.
They're still elevated.
I don't think the sellers get it yet.
they're now in hope and prayer mode they can get these prices but they can't because we're on
buyer's strike now and buyers strike feeds on itself we'll also see some people who try to sell
just back away nah i'm gonna wait that will happen too but only to a certain extent
so keep you informed and we're not just talking here in florida we're seeing it
other areas, you know, and especially at the high end, high end's done. It made an Eiffel Tower
move. I've explained that to you. You know the Eiffel Tower. Go look at it. Straight up, usually straight
down. And you're going to see that a lot because it was just ridiculously priced in some of these
ridiculously priced areas, and that's how it always works. It's normal. Normality. And unfortunately,
for people that bought into that spike, they're going to pay a price if they were buying on
investment.
If they're buying to live there, I guess it's a no biggie.
But therein lies your great few-minute lesson on how housing works and pretty much how market
forces work.
You know, the market forces that have nothing to do with our government.
The control freaks.
And if anything changes, we'll let you know.
And by the way, one other part of this equation, if, and it's an if, markets go lower, that'll affect things too.
People feel much better right now than they did eight weeks ago.
If markets decide to really head back towards the lows, and that's an if, we're not saying it's going to, that won't help the situation either.
It's all about how people feel and what they see and the environment around them.
That's how we put it all into one pot and observe.
And we're pretty good at observing.
Lobster.
What does lobster have to do with all this?
That's up next on Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with
pharmacist to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains
why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach
ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just
I have a stomach kick every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right?
Wrong.
Healthy Choice Simply Steamers are delicious and healthy.
The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections,
like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers grilled chicken and broccoli Alfredo.
It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial.
Healthy choice simply steamers.
What having it all tastes like.
Cash flow crunch.
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up to $200,000 right when you need it.
Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses
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Get funded quickly and confidently.
apply today at on deck.com funds could be available as soon as tomorrow depending on certain loan attributes your business loan may be issued by on deck or celtic bank on deck does not lend in north dakota all loans and amount subject to lender approval
you're listening to
what are we waiting for what are you waiting for one two ready go action investors edge with gary colpaw
and welcome once again to investors edge so you never know what we're going to talk about
here. Today, I was awaiting going on TV with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business, and before me was a
hit about, and hit means a segment on lobster. Jeff Flock of Fox News, Fox Business, who I just
love. Great, great journalist, reporter, can do things like today, lobstering to covering the
hurricanes. So he's on a boat and talking about lobster and talking to these lobster people,
lobster fishermen, lobster, whatever. And what they were telling us was there's a bare market
and lobster now. And you know what's happening? The price of lobster is coming down marketly.
You know, lobster is expensive. You go to a restaurant and you look at, oh, if I buy shrimp, it's this price.
So if I buy lobster, oh, it says market price.
Why?
Because it's a lot more expensive.
Well, it's what they call this, I guess you could call it a luxury item.
Fewer and fewer and fewer and fewer and fewer people are buying lobster and ordering lobster in restaurants.
What does that mean?
It means that the wealthy, the people that think they wealthy, the people that think they wealthy,
the people that act wealthy.
Give me the two and a half pound lobster.
Are now thinking twice.
They're thinking about price.
Simple as that.
Lobster.
Just that one segment on TV gives me another data point
that I don't know about you, but it's meaningful to me.
That's how it works.
You know what else that I follow?
And I do this maybe twice a week.
Oh, I just check out flights from New York to London or L.A. to London.
Why would I do that?
I want to see pricing because if pricing is coming down, it's telling me something.
But not on economy fairs, because they can't move that much on business fairs.
And then what do I do?
how many seats available?
And I'm letting you know
as I'm going on to these sites
there's a crap load of business class seats available
on any number of flights anywhere across the pond
in different areas.
I looked at Frankfurt from here through Luthonza
a bunch of other areas.
What does that tell me?
People are really, really thinking about
price.
So I'm just letting you know
we do our own legwork.
We don't need somebody to tell us.
When I go look
on there in November,
Orlando to London, British Air,
and they have two flights a night.
It's off season.
In summer, they have three.
And 90% of the business class seats
are empty.
That's what I'm talking about.
This is what is known
as putting just some pieces of the puzzle together
of how people are feeling about things.
And we don't try to really why,
but we see it in the markets.
People in their homes.
Imagine, you know, if you're of means
and you think your home's worth one-five
and all of a sudden you find out it's 1-1.
This is what goes on.
thoughts change, the process changes.
So we're just giving you an idea of the things we do,
which I think some people would think we're insane, but we're not.
It's really how the world works.
You get a feel.
And it only takes a little bit of time to do this little work.
If it takes me a half hour to go through these sites,
the British Airways are Virgin Atlantic,
and you can really tell.
and we'll do it every week to see if there's any movement.
And the interesting thing about these airlines,
they really have not moved price yet, though.
You would think 5,000 round-trip business class
would go back to 3,500 where it used to be before the pandemic.
They haven't done that yet.
Eventually, it's going to be a must.
If every time they fly out,
75% of these seats are empty.
And I will tell you, when I just went to Europe,
up, I was surprised some of the seats in business class were empty back and forth.
And by the way, I use points.
I got a lot of points.
So it gives you a little idea how to look at things, how we look at things, and it really does work.
And of course, it's good to have a radio show.
We get a lot of input from a lot of you in all kinds of industries and all kinds of places around the globe, telling us how things are like.
We had somebody email us.
Where was that from?
Leone, France, is that how you pronounce it, to tell us what's going on over there?
I've never been to Leone. I guess that's south of Paris.
I may have to check it out.
So we get a lot of good, and by the way, also we also look at tours.
We look at tours.
You know, traveling tours.
Are they full up? Are they empty?
And all that crap.
So just a little bit of Gary's process for you
And you know
It's not perfect
But not many do what we do
And we think it gives us a pretty decent leg up
On everybody else who just
You know think long term
And don't worry everything's going to be fine
Yeah we know your Peloton that is down 90%
But you know
sorry about that.
We don't play that game.
And we warned you about Peloton too, didn't we?
Anyway, I'm headed for the city.
New York City tonight.
Hopefully I get out.
It's a late flight.
And until Monday, by the way, I'll be on with Neil Cavuto,
Fox News tomorrow from New York.
Not in studio, though, believe it or not.
Between 10 and noon tomorrow.
Fox News.
Until Monday, have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
It's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Stay in good shape.
Alcohol is overrated.
Marijuana sucks.
The lotto is a scam, unless you win.
Until Monday, thanks for joining us.
Peace out.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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