Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Crappy month in review
Episode Date: September 29, 2023http://garyk.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is September 29th.
It is 2003.
And it's Friday.
It's the end of the month.
We'll have the month in review.
you will have a bunch of thoughts on a lot of things and you know where we stand on most everything.
But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post on our Twitter feed.
If you don't follow us on Twitter, you should.
Just put my name in.
Click on it.
And you can email me anytime.
You just be nice.
So where do I want to start today?
Two notes.
the first note on the BS coming from Capitol Hill
this affects you and your money
and secondly
a certain somebody who I'm not going to name
that scares the living wits out of me
you know I'm worried about the longer term
intermediate term and really short a term
with the debt and the deficits
and just getting in our way
first thing as you know
we're going to have a government shutdown
just so you know
the line corrupt media is going to tell us it's the end of the world and it's the
Republicans fault. That's what they always do.
Everything's a crisis. The world is going to be destroyed.
This and that and this and that's going to happen.
Okay. Just so you know that all essentials will be taken care of.
All essentials will be paid.
There are going to be things that are going to be
furloughed for now until things get going.
What happened in 19, just so you know,
under Trump, it was the longest shutdown we've ever had.
The people that are in the control towers for airlines threatened.
And that got things going.
going again. But you need to know in no way, shape, or form is that a problem? The problem is what
Biden, Trump, Obama, and Bush have done. They have increased the size of their blob in ways
unimaginable to where I'd like to say it's a culmination, but I think it's just a starting point
where this maniac in the White House has the grapefruits and did it.
He was successful.
The Republicans signed off on it to have a deficit of $2 trillion when in the year 2000 our whole federal spending was $1.8 trillion.
And last I looked, we were still in business back then.
So they have grown their world in ways unimaginable.
In 19, 2019, spending was $4.4 trillion.
It's going to look about $6.5 trillion this year.
So think about it.
The increase in government by 50%.
That $2.1 trillion is mostly debt on our asses.
They're all going to be dead or retired by the time it all blows up.
that was a bad thing to say today. I'm sorry. Diane Feinstein, Feinstein would have passed away at the age of 90 today.
She should not have been in the Senate five years ago, but let her rest in peace. We wish no bad on anybody.
They had a carrier to make votes over the last couple of months. Sorry, that came out not good.
But I get back on point very quickly. They're crushing us.
and you don't know it because you don't see it exactly.
You know how Biden, the Marxist,
just forgave a bunch of money to student loans,
even though the Supreme Court came in and gave him the middle finger?
Imagine if you went to your bank account this weekend
and it shows a deduction of $300 and it says,
student loan forgiveness,
not for you but for somebody else.
Well, then they couldn't get away with it.
But they know it does not show up directly and personally on you,
even though it's coming at us.
A trillion bucks of our taxes is going towards interest every year now because of them.
Not towards the elderly, you know, they say, got to take care of the elderly.
The downtrod, got to take care of the downtrod.
Kids that need food, got to take the kids who need food, take care of kids who need food.
Not the streets and the roads and the bridges or anything that matters towards interest.
Brought to you by Joe Biden, all he had to do was keep spending at levels of 2019.
But no, up yours, people.
I'm getting advertisements from Biden.
I don't know why about democracy.
We're fighting for democracy.
He's destroying democracy.
So government shutdown, it's just the same as they're doing with the climate change.
everything's a crisis, get it to a crisis, and then con us and scam us and come after our wallets.
That's the story.
You need to know that.
I don't care if you're a Republican or Democrat.
You better get this.
You better get this that Joe Biden doesn't care about you, the Democrat or Republican.
They just want to grow the control, the control freakism of this country.
Jefferson has warned us more than two centuries ago.
They're all the forefathers rolling over in their graves at what's going on here.
And I'm watching Republicans and Democrats going back and forth, back and forth.
Up yours to every single one of them.
The Republicans let that go through a $6.5 trillion budget with $2 trillion of deficit.
They let it go through.
They could have stopped the dentage tracks.
They could have bought some prime time and showed, hey, we were $4.4 trillion in 2019.
This is what this guy wants to do, and it's all dead on your asses.
Is this what you want?
But no, because they're happy.
It keeps them in power.
Which takes me to the next part of the equation.
Let me read something to you, which, again, scares the living, and it should.
Quote, I'm still trying to process while the long end of interest rates are increasing.
So this quote is basically wondering why are interest rates still going up?
I am not going to mention who it is because I may get more than personal on this.
But let me just tell you about this person and you can go to my Twitter feed and see I called them a doofus.
Yale University, economics, summa cum laude, this person.
He was economic advisor to the Congressional Budget Office with Obama,
Council of Economic Advisers.
He's now a central banker, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, this person,
who doesn't understand why interest rates are going up.
And I'm thinking to myself,
what a moron.
He doesn't know why interest rates are going up on the law.
long end? What a doofus. But when I say all these pejorative words, I'm really sitting here
saying, my goodness, he's one of our central bankers. I think he's a voter also. He was the
chairman of Economic Council in 2010, 2011. He doesn't know why interest rates are going
higher now. Each and every one of you know. And if you're not sure, all you got to do is Google the
words. What happens to interest rates if a company or an entity piles on more and more debt?
What do they have to do? Well, they have to pay higher yields. Do you know why? Because the lenders
demand it and the markets adjust to it. It's economics 101. You learned it in sixth grade.
And yet one of our central bankers, I'm still trying to process why long-end interest rates are
increasing. Holy crap. It's a simple reason. Two trillion this year in deficits.
33 trillion of debt and just fast track, just so you know, by 2030, it's going to be 45 trillion.
It's going to grow that fast. And nobody's doing anything about it. And the morons in the media
are not saying anything about the problem that these maniacs,
are growing the size of their business.
And given each and every one of us the middle finger and it's a colonoscopy.
But Gary, oh, how does it affect me?
It hits economic growth.
It hits job.
Gary, but jobs are good.
Yeah, they are coming out of COVID.
Do you know what the last thing to go is?
And you see what interest rates are doing?
And here's the other part of his doofusness.
Interest rates are just normalizing
because you add the other central banker, God,
printing $9 trillion to keep them down.
Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it,
then month a review.
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called bomb. It doesn't get better than this.
So, let me put a bow tie on this.
I'm going to use two words.
Holy crap!
The people that run in country are hamstringing us,
taking a mallet and hitting us over the head,
growing their business in ways unimaginable,
and getting away with it.
Do you remember the whole fight on the debt ceiling?
They actually have the raining
services saying if we don't raise more debt, we're screwed because we got to pay our bills.
Well, why did they spend it in the first place? They get economists paid off to say we need
more debt. We need the opposite. And all we have to do is stop them. But we don't. Do you know why?
Because half of us are going to vote for Biden and half are going to vote for Trump. And both
of them suck. Trump was horrible on the debt and deficit. He lied about it.
it big lie do you remember I was so happy with him when he ran for president I was so
happy you know what he said I'm gonna cut taxes across the board great I'm gonna cut
regulations across the board great I am gonna keep spending in check lie and I'm
gonna make sure I don't know about balancing the budget in the short run by
I will make sure it gets balanced,
and he immediately came in and spending $600 billion a year.
Boom!
He lied.
And do you know why he lied?
Because he's just like the rest.
They figured out very quickly,
ooh, the more I spend,
but it's all going to blow up,
and they're going to blame each other.
And the scum and the sleaze in the media,
of course, they're going to blame one side when it's both.
I can't believe what I saw today in the national media
over the shutdown.
Oh, everything's going to go to hell in a ham basket.
It's going to go to hell in a handbasket because of the spending.
Not the shutdown.
When was government the end all?
When did they become the end all be all?
Well, when they were able to market it as the end all be all and get away with it
because they own the media.
Why do you think they hate Fox News?
Because Fox News years ago came in and said,
you ain't owning the crap anymore.
But we have no.
friends. You and I have no friends in D.C. None. Your homework this week. End. Go look at a chart
of debt, total debt, get a chart and deficits. And you will see a straight shot. It looks like
the Empire State Building with that big thing at the top, the needle.
Don't they have like a needle at the top?
Straight up.
And that's government spending.
Any of you pissed that $380 billion went to one man to dole out on climate?
What?
And they're not going to tell you where the money's going?
Any of you?
And I got news for you.
I think we should protect Ukraine.
But do you think once, once they have said to you, here's where the money's going?
You know, last week I saw it was like $25 billion.
Do you know what $20?
And I'm not saying it shouldn't go there.
But you know what $25 billion?
Maybe the emergency is $25 billion to the big cities to fight crime?
The police?
Maybe you want to do that?
Whoa.
How about the border?
Do you know I watch some interviews today on these morons on the left?
And even CNN, Jake Tapper, asked one of them.
You think the border is secure?
And the woman sat.
I don't even know her name.
Well, humanity.
And then he asked again, do you think the board is secure?
Well, humanity.
Do you think the border is secure?
Well, you know.
I mean, holy crap.
Have you seen the border?
It's to the point now with the mayor of New York,
a liberal big time,
is basically cursing out Biden
because of how many migrants are coming here
and how much it's costing the city.
And the only thing I can think of
is this maniac in the White House
is doing it on purpose.
Because whenever asked,
they have nothing.
They have nothing.
They're blaming Trump.
The press secretary, who doesn't even answer any question.
She looks down at her on little notes.
Blaine's Trump.
Isn't Trump been gone for two and a half years?
And by the way, every one of these people come in and illegally is using up our taxpayer dollars, more debt.
And I'm thinking they have to be doing it on purpose.
So I'm depressed today in that I had to read to you what that quote was from a central banker,
has no idea why yields are going up.
Shutdowns on government being portrayed as the end of the world
when God bless it if we can cut government down a little bit.
They're lucky I'm not elected president.
Holy crap.
The machete would come out.
We'd go back to 2019 spending.
Oh, but it's for entitlements.
No, it's not.
I know what the numbers are in entitlements.
They're lying.
And by the way, entitlement programs, they're government programs.
They're failures.
And they don't change them.
Do you know why?
Because they're all scared of changing it because you know why.
You're throwing grandma off the cliff.
That was the ads they ran when somebody was trying to fix it.
That's what we're dealing with.
Yay.
All right, month in review.
Not thrilling.
And the rest of the show is going to be on
well, what happens in the last quarter of the year
where everybody is telling us everything's fine.
We're going to have a great last quarter.
Well, for the month, the Dow was down 3.5%.
For the month, the S&P 500
was down 4.87%.
For the month, NASDAQ, down 5.81%.
For the month, NASDAQ 100, down 5.81%.
For the month, the socks was down 6.5%.
For the month, the Russell 2000 down 6%.
For the month, the transports, 4.8%.
That's your month of September, which, by the way, got to tell you, they told us would be bad.
Everybody says, hey, September is usually a bad month.
But they're now telling us October.
market's going to bottom, and we're going to have the great end of year rally.
Okay, sure, fine, dandy, gladly take it.
There's only one problem.
They're all predicting.
We are interpreting.
We are reading the tape.
We are not going to let our headlights go too far.
That's up next on the investor's edge.
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to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary
Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him so I'll get into today's
market in a little bit let's just say it traded like a penny stock what it was trading all over the
map and it could have been worse but it could have been a lot better and you know what we always tell you
about a hot open and a bad clothes.
That's not what you want to see.
But let's talk about the fourth quarter.
Because again, ask anybody on Wall Street.
Oh, the fourth quarter is going to be great.
That's when markets bottom.
Okay, I'm all for it.
There's only one problem.
As you know, there is nobody better than us.
at reading the tape, uptrends versus downtrends.
And the first thing that comes to mind is, as we head into the fourth quarter,
how many downtrends do we have?
Well, I can safely tell you, transports are in a downtrend.
Medical, of all stripes, are in a downtrend.
financials mostly in a downtrend.
Restaurants in a downtrend.
Just about all the economically sensitive stocks are in a downtrend.
Airlines, downtrend.
Cruise lines, downtrend.
Hotels, a few in a downtrend and some are starting a downtrend.
Hospitals, downtrend.
Waste management, downtrend.
Housing and housing-related downtrend.
Defense, even with the war, downtrend.
Payroll companies, downtrend.
Drugs, downtrend.
Some strong, but even they're getting after Eli Lilly now.
And when I said financials, they just broke down Berkshire Hathaway today.
They broke down Warren Buffett stock today.
By the way, it got downgraded.
It broke the 50-day on volume today.
Just today going into the fourth quarter.
Down trend.
Consumer staples.
Go take a look at a chart of Hershey's.
It looks like a black diamond slope at Vale Mountain.
So that's food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products.
All in downtrends.
China.
Down trend.
Emerging markets.
Down trend.
though they are, their slope is not as severe.
Shall I continue?
A bunch of commodity names and downtrends, though, as we have stated, coal and uranium strong.
Oils strong but mixed.
What have we told you about the oils we were worried about?
Why are a bunch of oil names breaking down?
So we're a little bit worried there.
retail
some strong names
Abercrombian Fetch
strong
strong
Costco not bad
but most
not only down trends
but major downtrends
as we enter the fourth quarter
we're all four
you know Star Wars
let's use Star Wars on this
what are they little rookies
and the soldiers, whatever, have the lightsabers, whatever they use.
So imagine Darth Vader and the bad guys are really beaten up on them.
And they head into the forest.
And then the wookies, they're called wookies, right?
I think they're called wookies.
All of a sudden they surprise the other side and fight them and push them back,
defending themselves.
No more are they getting pushed down.
And all of a sudden they start winning and pushing them back.
I got newsfea.
In all these areas I have just mentioned, it's quite the few.
The wookies haven't even come out of the ground yet.
We'll be glad to see that.
We're all for the fourth quarter.
Show us.
Haven't seen it yet.
And notice I have not mentioned the semiconductors yet.
downtrend
and the index
much better than the average stock
in the semiconductors
because of some of the big few
downtrends
do you know what else is in downtrends
Apple
15.6 billion every
dollar it moves
you know it's in a downtrend
Amazon
in a near term downtrend
now not the big one
but they just top that out.
You know what else is in a downtrend?
And Vibya.
They broke that 50-day, though it's been trying as of recent.
You know what else is in a downtrend?
Oracle's in a downtrend.
You know what else?
Microsoft.
In a downtrend.
Adobe in a downtrend.
Netflix in a downtrend.
Tesla in a downtrend
Some worse than others
What's not in a downtrend?
Facebook
But just hanging on
Teased the downside yesterday
Or Wednesday
And Google
Hanging in there
So you got two
And you know what
Google near term
Looks like it may be starting a downtrend
So the simple question is
If all these things are in downtrends
How the hell's that?
the market going to do great in the fourth quarter? Well, the wookies are going to need to show up.
And guess what? You'll have me Monday through Friday to let you know if they do.
By the way, did I mention a bunch of commodity names? Yeah, I did, besides the coal and aluminum.
Oh, gold, downtrend. Silver, downtrend. And for the life of me, I don't know what the hell's going on.
with gold and silver because man oh man they can't find the friends so we'll be glad if the wookie
show up and i'm just letting you know we'll let you know but as we enter the fourth quarter i ain't
seeing it i'll be ready we do this with no bias we let the market dictate policy to us we don't
dictate policy to the market we're not in that guaranteed camp of a
strong fourth quarter.
Now, I also didn't mention all the blown up stuff.
Nothing happened in there.
Just little random bounces here and there.
You know which names those are, right?
The PayPal's, the squares, the things like that.
The snowflakes.
Some better than others.
But most all, you know what they're trading?
They're trading below resistance and or moving averages.
which means their wookies are still in the ground or hiding.
The wukies.
I hope I got this right.
Wookies.
Yeah, the wukies.
Fictional humanoid aliens in Star Wars universe native to the forest plant,
Kesheek.
They are distinguished from humans by their gigantism.
The most prominent wookie is Chubaka.
But you know what I'm thinking of?
I'm thinking those little guys.
What are those little guys' names?
I'm thinking of the wrong thing.
I got to get that name.
The small animals in Star Wars.
What were they called?
I don't know.
EWox.
Is that what they're called?
I think EWox.
Look at me doing the Star Wars thing.
I'm putting in EWox and taking a picture.
Yeah, the EWox.
That's what I was thinking of.
Wookie's in EWox.
I was close.
The Ewox coming out of the ground.
If you notice, I haven't watched Star Wars at a while.
And by the way, they just screwed up the whole franchise.
The first three were great, and after that,
though Mark Hamill did show up,
and so did Harrison Ford and Princess Leia in the latter ones.
That's the only thing they had gone from.
Didn't like the storylines.
Anyway.
Look at me with the Star Wars today.
I think that explains it, by the way,
what we're going to need to see happen
for the fourth quarter to be better.
Up next.
What else do we got for you?
Oh, today, I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
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With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
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credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
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airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply,
lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by
Spricker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
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and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
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podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
And by the way, I must mention this. I mean, this is a big story. A man was charged with murder
of Tupac Shakur. Tupac Shakur. I think he, wasn't he, wasn't he,
killed like in the 90s? I got to check that out. Shupak Shakur, 1996. Is that right? They got,
they say they got the guy and the guy didn't shut. Yeah, killed the rapper in 1996 and they said
the guy's mouth and then they investigate and they got the evidence and this, that, and the other
thing. Wow, huh? That's big stuff. Wow. My father was moved from the hospital today to a rehab.
When you're, you know, he's 91 going on 92, they go, you go to a rehab to, you know, get your bearings and stuff.
But what we finally got him, we're going to get a full-time and not just somebody to be there, but, you know, kind of like nurse type thing, full-time.
It's necessary.
And man, oh, man, I'll tell you.
And you can just tell he's so frustrated of what's happened to me.
And you just try to lift him up and pick him up and make sure, you know, age, whatever.
You know what he does?
He pulls out a picture to show all the nurses and doctors a picture of him when he was in the Navy.
To let him know, hey, this was me and this is me.
I get it.
I do get it.
and I've been getting a lot of emails from many of you that have gone through the same situation.
I guess a lot of us do as your parents grow older and live.
I mean, it's magnificent.
He's going to be 92.
And let me just tell you, I think I got the car keys away from just like a year and a half ago.
And both of them, self-sufficient, but it's gotten to the point where, you know what I mean when I say gotten to the point.
All right, today.
So you know what we try and teach you here, right?
The Dow, today, today.
Opened up, it was 33-893.
Close at 33-507, down 386 points from the open.
Could have been worse.
It was down 486 points in the 2 o'clock hour, still finished down 156.
What do we tell you about strong opens and weak closes?
That was the down.
The S&P finished down 11 today.
On the open today, it was up 35.
Nope.
And the NASDAQ, which fortunately finished up 18 on the open today.
And we're talking the first couple of minutes.
It was 180 and finished only up 18.
What do we tell you about intraday action?
And I must tell you, I'm thinking on the open today,
ooh, it's end of quarter.
They're going to pop this up and keep it up.
They couldn't.
Interesting.
Maybe Monday will be better.
And may I state for the record that yields were down today and they couldn't keep it up?
And oil prices were down today and they couldn't keep it up.
Though yields hit 4508 early, close at 4573, not good.
Oil stocks, what have we been telling you?
Oil price is strong, but interesting enough, a lot of oil stocks, not so strong.
They were all kicked in the teeth a little bit today.
I have yet to do the scans, but I'm letting you know any oil stock breaking the 50-D moving average right now.
I'd be putting it up for a review.
You got that?
We've been talking about coal and uranium.
They're pulling back now.
That's just gravity.
Normal to pull back when you get stretched, extended to the upside.
What I found interesting today is J.P. Morgan.
Maybe nothing.
But whenever J.P. Morgan's down 250 with the market trying and volume picks up, I worry.
So I'm going to give you a little number on J.P. Morgan. 142.65.
We don't think it'd be thrilling if $142.65 gets taken out to the downside.
Due to the fact, it's now trading below resistance and the $50.
move and average. And of course, most other financials act like the south end of a northbound
jackass. So we're open to anything in the fourth quarter. Maybe the Ewox, I got it right now,
Ewok's, and then the Wookieers. All I know with the close today, in the three o'clock hour,
I scanned all those areas I mentioned earlier,
and they're all in downtrends of differing levels.
Some deep.
The dollar stores have crashed.
Deep down trends.
That's going to have to change.
We'll be all for it.
We'll be all for it.
And we promise you to let you know if it occurs.
Because that's what they're telling us.
Hey, fourth quarter, we're going to have to see some buyers.
We're going to have to see yields come down and probably oil prices too.
Why?
Again, that is the one-two punch that I have warned you about.
That amazingly has been persistent to the upside.
The cost of everything going up, in spite of they tell us, inflation's all better.
Yeah, government statistics.
Have that it.
That all said, you'll have a great weekend.
Drive carefully.
I'll be back in Florida on Sunday.
And when you get home, do like we do.
Well, you make sure you hug your children.
But this weekend, more importantly, make sure you hug your parents.
I'm going to big time.
Have a great one, everybody.
Thanks for joining.
Appreciate the kind words.
Until Monday, take care.
Bye, bye.
This has been Investors' Edge
with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes
or to get in contact with Gary,
go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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