Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Crappy Week In Review!

Episode Date: September 22, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host. A thanks being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Friday, September 22nd, 2023. As we head into the weekend, hope you're having a good. good day. What I first want to do today, since we receive so much reaction, is just go over and give the short version of what I said yesterday to explain to you what we believe is happening and what potentially can happen because, as usual, nobody seeing what we're seeing. thinking what we're thinking. We have had a certain thought process when it came to the central banks and our central bank since Christmas of 2018. And part of that was they really used to matter a lot

because they printed to $9 trillion. And what they did was simply suppressed interest rates down to zero to the point where mortgage rates were under 3%. They suppressed them. And they suppressed them at a time where they should have been going much higher. Why do we say that? Because our debt exploded to the upside. Our politicians, let me use the diplomatic word, screwed us. Our politicians screwed us. They decided to say, screw the taxpayer,

screw Americans, screw you. We are going, if we don't have enough money from the taxpayer, we're just going to freaking explode the amount of debt. That's all. But when debt goes higher, The free markets, when markets are free, will account for that higher debt by having yields go higher. Because people that lend that money will be asking for a higher rate of return based on the risk of a lot more debt. It's economics 101. But instead, you had one man and his whim. and don't ask me how, got the ability to print up to $9 trillion of just fake money,

conjured up money, and then take that money and buy up the bond market, bought the living hell out of the bond market to take interest rates down to the bare bones. Suppress them. So we've gone all these years to where finally that created this inflation. Economics 101, you can go look it up on Google,

too much money chasing too few goods or chasing nothing. That's what happened with the inflation. And by the way, the Fed is now admitting what nobody asked them about and we've been telling you about. They created the inflation with a little help from their friends like Marxist Joe Biden with his just maniacal spending. and size of government. So, once the inflation came, no longer can they print money.

So if they can't print money and buy up bonds to take yields down, what do you think the free market of bonds and yields are going to do to account not only for the debt that we had in 2008 when they started the money printing with Bernanke, where our debt was maybe $8,9 trillion, bucks, what about at 30 trillion? 30 trillion fricking dollars. Now 33. Well, yields have gone from nothing to the 10-year up to 4.438, which was down a little bit today. Now, interesting enough, that 4.438 is still quite low. How do I say that? Well, I'm just looking at my monthly, and I will note that back in 1999, it was at 6.8. In 95, 10-year yield was at 8.

And back then, we hardly had any debt, which has me worrying. What if the market of yields sees $33 trillion of debt and decide, I want to pay more. I should get paid more. What if yields go to five? What if they go to five and a half or six? What if they go to eight? Well, the market, stock market will crash. Doesn't mean it happened like 87, you know, in a couple of days, but the market will crash because profits will crash.

The economy will get bludgeoned. Jobs will be lost because the economy is not used. to it and has to adjust to it. And corporations and their profits would fall off a ledge. And that's why we watch this so darn closely. We have used the terminology. They've been taunting the economy and the markets for over a decade now. We've said it up, I can, 100, 200, 300, 400, hundred times, and how do they taunt it? They're obscene, should be criminal, spend anything they want to spend, regardless whether they take it in or not.

You may not know this, but many years ago, they used to fight over debt, and there hardly was any debt. If they took in a trillion, they spent a trillion, maybe a little bit more. but starting with Bush and I I think Bill Clinton sucks I think he's a sexual predator

the whole works but he did not start it up he lied about his numbers by using moving numbers around but it all started with Bush and then

Obama then Trump that's the nightmarish trifecta that took us to the point where we ended up with this gargantuan Marxist named Joe Biden that has the grapefruits to run a $2 trillion deficit. And the media doesn't say a freaking word because they don't want to lose their place and it's their guy. They have ninkum poops like Paul Krugman in the New York Times

say we're Goldilocks. Goldilocks with a $2 trillion deficit, you're an ass. and I'd say it to his face because he has influence. Goldilocks, you're running a $2 trillion deficit? It's a worst case scenario. So the worry is simple. Yields keep going higher and we're not saying they're going to go higher. We're just saying the worry is they are going to go higher.

We don't have control of the bond market. And maybe if the economy really tanks, interest rates come down. to account for that. Less inflation. But the problem is all I'm hearing from the pundits right now is, oh, inflation's down. That's good. And that's why the bond market's going to behave. But I'm saying, but wait a minute, debt has skyrocketed.

And that's what bond markets react to also. And we do know we're going to 50 trillion of deficits. We're going to 50 trillion of debt. It's a guarantee. and nobody gives a crap in D.C. I know the Republicans are yelling and screaming now, but they said nothing under Trump. I'm happy that somebody at least is screaming about it.

And the national media has their thumbs up there, you know what, and picking their nose, because they don't know what the hell they're doing. I don't even think they can balance their own checkbooks. And therein lies the issue. And we're going to watch closely. and as you know I've said, I'm worried about dislocations because of this. And we've already had crashes and blowups in all kinds of bubbles and things like that.

And now we have another distortion where nobody wants to sell their home because they artificially, but officially got 3% mortgages when they never should have got them, but that was done by one man. So you've got to thank him if you were able to do that. but if you want to sell we're now at 7.6% average mortgage and that's why housing isn't moving it's not budging I watch certain cities

and nobody's buying nobody's selling and anybody who tries to sell is putting it up 30, 40% higher than it should be so nobody's going to pay for it so another Powell distortion. Up next, we'll head into this week. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based

discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs. All to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-9. That's 8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-5-9. 5-9. Investment advisory services offered through

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So again, let me put the bow tie on it. We believe that the market, the bond market is looking at the debt, not the inflation.

And we are in hopes, big-time hopes. It doesn't get even more pissed off at how much debt is out there. Brought to you by every freaking single politician going back to Bush and now being supersized by this Marxist in Washington. that's pretty much destroying the country in real time. Destroying the country, Gary. Well, you're only a country if you have borders. Have you seen what's going on?

And I used to say I feel sorry for the press secretary, but boy, is she a lion's sack? As much as I can't stand the Republicans. They're blaming the Republicans for how many people come in in the border. And they said that the Republicans are the ones that hurt the border under Trump when that's a lie. and of course the media that held Trump accountable for his lies hardly holds this Marxist for his lies accountable.

Have you seen what's going on the border? Holy crap. On that note, Senator Menendez is indicted on bribery charges. He was indicted before and he didn't learn his lesson. I guess they had a hung jury the last time. The guy's a creep. Just another crook in D.C. from Jersey. he's not alone

he just did it obviously oh and he's caught go look it up Bob Menendez another yutz and he keeps getting elected you're all insane out there you're all insane

how do you elect some of these people anyway so that's the story now today bond yields came down and the market's still crapped out in fact you know how we try to tell you the one thing you don't want to see is strong opens and weak closes.

Today, the NASDAQ was up 145, a nice bounce after getting trash recently. And then it was down. And then at 3 o'clock, it rallied from being down 10 to being up 70. And then closed down 12. So the NASDAQ in hole was up 145 early and finished down 12. Is that good news? The answer is, no. And if we see more of that,

the bullish people should not be happy. One of the characteristics of a bearish phase is strong opens and weak closes. Bullish phase, weak opens and strong closes. How do we know this? Well, we've studied every bull and bear market out there. So today we'll go down in the loss column. Any way you cut it.

Because the market had this chance to be up nicely and finish down. And the other part of the equation was that even with the NASDAQ only down 12 and the NASDAQ 100 up six, guess where I'm going next? 1760 NASDAQ stocks up, 2330 down. Again, another bad advance decline day versus the market. You want to see that change also. So the characteristics we're getting now suck. Simple as that. You want good advanced declines.

By the way, the NASDAQ advanced decline line is at bare market lows while we're way way off the bare market. And that's because, what have we told you? A select group has really been doing the heavy lifting, and they better continue to do the heavy lifting. And I must state that those names are starting to lose what we call sponsorship to be watched. So today's market rap brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com.

Dow down 106, S&P down 10. NASDAQ down 12, NASDAQ 100, up seven. Transports down 70, though. Advanced declines were not good. And new highs hardly yet. Strength today. Some eyes had some strength, but they were up much better early. And the socks was only up 26.

And as we said, the NASDAQ was up 140. Then it was down. And then it was up in the 3 o'clock hour. It was up like 60 or 70. In fact, I'm about to give you the exact time on the NASDAQ in the final hour. Yeah, at 325, it hit 13302 and close 13 to 11. Drop 91 points in the last 35 minutes. And of note,

They got Tesla today. Tesla broke below the 50-day moving average and handily. And that was holding in there. So now below the 50-day moving average is Tesla, is Nvidia, is Microsoft. Facebook meta is just about a percent below. Google is now below. It finished below today by about a percent. Amazon gaped below it yesterday.

Apple below. Adobe below. Netflix, very much below. Oracle below. So all the biggies are now below the 50-day moving average, which has me segueing to Apple. One of the things we told you this week that we hate a Wall Street is that they brought out these IPOs and instead of given the secondary market a chance,

they brought them out at valuations that were just stupid. And we told you that the day they came out. So Arm Holdings was at $69 within a day. It's now $51 at the close today. So that's what is about 26% from a few days ago if you bought in the aftermarket when they were hyping the hell out of you. Remember Instacart? Well, they open that up at 43. It's 30 in three days. 30% if you bought on the hype. Catching my drift?

So that's one of the things we can't stand. You just got to be smart about it. We warned you. Well, here's the other part today. How is it before Apple sold any new phones? You had every freaking analyst that's bullish on Apple, even though it's trading it 30 times earnings, and even though sales have been declining year over year, all yelling and screaming about Apple and how much demand there is for the new phone. Up next, we're going to talk what the analysts today did with Apple. Do we believe them?

And what's the case for it or against it as we move forward? Next, on this the one and only, Investor's Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

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He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Okay. So we noticed today analysts falling all over each other on Apple. And we're not saying there isn't strong demand or is strong demand. What we're just saying is, I think they're,

were just full of crap today. Just throwing it out there. And why do we say that? Sure, they can get some initial and maybe get some guidance out of Apple, but I have to tell you, I've received email after email from Apple, advertisements to buy the phone from AT&T, and you know how you buy the phone from AT&T now. You trade in your old phone and you don't pay a dime for the new phone. Interesting.

But of course, you've got to extend your years with AT&T and. T&T. The same thing on Verizon. How much of that's going on? So they really don't know. You know what they're doing? They're in hope and prayer mode. And that kind of pede me owed today. I was a little mad about that. They should shut up. You know what they should say? We predict. They didn't say we predict. They said it is stated as a fact. And there's no way of knowing. It's just. just one day. And yeah, they were lined up to buy it in New York City. I don't know why would anybody line up the first day. Why don't you just wait a few days? But, hey, listen, nature of the beast sometimes. I get it.

We didn't like seeing that. And the story with Apple is simple. They better grow their earnings. And they better grow their sales. And they can do it. It's going to be tougher going forward because of how big they are. There's no way they can grow like they used to. law of large numbers, we call it. The bigger you get, the tougher to have that great growth rate,

and especially their size. I don't know if you know this, but Apple sales. 9207, 301, $383 billion in sales. That's sick. And the good news is services business up nicely. I pay $2.99 every month for, I don't even know what. Extra gigs or something like that. But the problem is, last four quarters, Apple sales growth, and this is year over year, plus 8 minus 5, minus 3, minus 1. I ain't going to get you anywhere. Earnings plus 4 minus 10, 0 plus 5.

I ain't going to get you anywhere. Yet the stock is coming off the bare market lows because it's Apple. I got news fee if they were selling. steel pipes, I think the stock would be down 25% from here easy. But it's Apple. And now they have the opportunity. We'll see if they can accelerate their numbers. But the analyst just pissed me off today. And it was basically all of them. And they were trying to come out with new numbers. Yeah, sure. First day of sales. That is the BS artism of Wall Street. That's all. On Apple. other things we're noticing and we're worried about financials not good regional banks really not good

that's going to matter real estate when you have a chance go look at the symbol i y are when you have that chance I Y R and tell me what you think you may email me looks like

the south end of a northbound jackass real estate go check out XHB that is the home builders

index or the ITB home construction index they are topped out and looks like they

started another leg to the downside yesterday. Again, these are the things we're watching and worried. And as we've stated, is the economy next? That's actually asking. Is the economy next? Our guess is that we're going to lose some of the job market here and the economy's going to have some interesting moments as we move forward. That's my guess. I think it's a good educated guess. To what extent I don't know. And then we go to the point of interest rates. Will they come down because of that?

Or will they stay up because of the debt? Oh, we're going to be watching that. So I know. You know what I'm getting from people. Oh, sell Russia Shuna Bay Yom Kippur, which is this coming week. It's the end of the quarter. and octobers were going to rally i saw somebody come out and say october eighth the market's going to bottom okay i'm all for it let me just state for the record we're going to have to we're going

to need to see some serious improvement because as of today at the close they were distributing stock they were getting leaders they were selling down more of the financials airline just continue to just give it up on the back of oil prices up again today. Retail acts terribly, except for maybe a couple of names. The dollar stores crushed, and that's because they're no longer dollar stores. They're dollar and a quarter stores. And I can go on and on. I'd love to give you what they call in business Green Shoots.

haven't seen yet. Markets under pressure, and we obey. Had some strength in China overnight? Terrific. They've been dead money for years, and they got their own problems. But guess what China's doing right now? Their central bank is easing because of all the problems they have.

And boy, do they have some real estate and debt problems. I told you, when I went to China, I think it was 16 or seven years ago, we took a ride with a guide going from city to city and I found ghost cities, not empty buildings. They built cities that are empty cities, not a city block, cities when I was there. I'm told they've been tearing some down. And if you haven't read some of their big commercial property companies, they'd be in big trouble. So they're easing.

Whether or not that helps or not, don't know. But all in all, ick. Best way I can put it. The Dow's only down 2% for the month. One would think more. The NASDAQ down almost 6. The NASDAQ 100 down 5. The transports 4-7.

The SOX 8.3%. the Russell 2000 6.48. So rough month. Let's hope they are right about end of the year. Here comes the big rally. Well, I think they're going to need two things. Oil prices to go down and yields to stop going up and come down. And I'm all for it.

Remember, we have no bias here. We have no agenda. We have no ulterior motive. If the market tells us one thing, we go with it. If it tells us the other thing, we go with it. But right now, big picture, if you're in, it better be large cap and not small caps. The mega cap tech that led so for such a while, dead right now. And underneath the 50-day moving average, and it better not worsen.

Apple new phone, they better say good things. Areas like airlines, cruise lines, housing, rails, food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products, luxury goods, retail of all stripes, just in bad shape. Financials of most stripes, bad shape. Few financials are strong. Where's the relative strength? oils, uranium, coal, and a smattering of stuff. What do we mean by that? Well, in the transports rider, Axwell.

Smattering. Up next, we'll take you to the weekend. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

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might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. I'm just typing something as I do this because I'm ambidextrose. Thank you in advance. By the way, I am in the midst of starting something on the weekend. I'm going to do a one-hour podcast. It's just going to be me yapping. I'm not sure the title yet.

I'm thinking maybe something like, they all suck. And you know what it's going to be. about politics and what they're doing, how they're hamstringing us. A lot of whining, a lot of complaining, but a lot of reality. We're in the midst of putting it together. Just letting you know. We don't know if we'll get one person listen or two million people.

But it will be the most informative and unbiased out there in all the land. And believe me, I've been looking at the... the most listened to podcasts and realizing they're biased, full of crap, catering to so-and-so, we're going to tell you like it is. We'll let you know. I'm excited. And hopefully it'll be a hit because I got news for you. We the people had better change the trajectory.

of what these sleazy, slimy, politicians in DC are doing to us. We had better change the trajectory. And I know the one side loves the one side, the other side loves the other side. We're going to address them to stop loving the sides and realize they're all killing us. That there really aren't any sides.

As I've said to you facetiously on this show, I think they're play acting in front of the camera cursing each other out and then popping the champagne corks behind the cameras in the back rooms as they take us into more and more and more and more and more and more debt. I'm sticking to myself last night. The Republicans now are complaining about spending, but they basically let a $2 trillion deficit year go through. just so you know they had to vote that through two trillion they let it through they didn't do they didn't listen to me

I would have been on TV here's what spending government was in 2019 4.4 trillion here's the proposal for this year 6.4 trillion oh and by the way that 2 trillion difference is all debt on your ass the public

and the Republicans let that through. And I'll never forgive Joe Manchin, another BS artist, who all of a sudden has seen God because he realized the big Marxists in the White House lied to him about what he would do for him. So that's what we're going to be doing. I should be talking about the New York Giants and how they lost so easily last night,

30 to 12 to San Fran. But I got to tell you, I do believe the Giants have something there. Hasn't come out yet. I think they got something there. We'll see. Well, at least they won last week. Poor Arizona.

And hopefully my fantasy football team gets off the Schneide this week. I have the worst team I've ever picked this year. I don't know what this even say. Oh, and two and least amount of points in my league. Maybe that's why I'm in a bad mood. actually I'm in a good mood you know why I'm working out I'm getting out there again as far as movement and getting in shape after all the back spasm and stuff haven't had one in 40 some odd days and now my back feels 100% I'm still not gonna push it too much because

man oh man the worst pain I've ever had but hopefully it's it's gone and whatever it was those gremlins i never want them again and i must tell you the doctor was right he said 12 weeks stretch like a madman never stop with the stretching in the morning at night we think that's what's going on there you're like an oak tree in your hips in your um abductors i think they're called and your hamstrings and all that, and I think that's what's done it. With a flexural every now and then, which by the way, if you ever need to sleep, get a flexural.

Man, oh man. And as you know, I don't do pills. But every now, I think I've taken maybe six in the months I've had that. And it just knocks you out. Yay. Anyway. That's that. Going into next week, not a lot of earnings.

Market overall, oversold meaning far down in a short period of time. Some bearishness is picked up. So maybe we'd bounce, but I got to tell you, we could have said that about today. And the market had one heck of a chance today. NASDAQ being up 140 and change finishing down 12. The NASDAQ up 140 and change was down going into 3 o'clock. rallies up to be up about 70 with 30 minutes to go finishes down what does that tell you physically the institutions are still selling and we will listen if anything changes we'll let you know

didn't change today you'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like we do it's quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise have a great night everybody have a great weekend everybody we'll be back on monday peace out all take care bye bye this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary k dot com guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now tommy john underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative

horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.