Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Crappy week in review [01.10.2025]

Episode Date: January 10, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum. I'm your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.

It's Friday, January 10, 2025. I got that right. I'm saying 2025 finally. Wish I can tell you it's a good day in the markets. It's not. I'll get to that in the minute. lots to cover as always serious talk on everything that affects you and boy there's a lot of things that are affecting you

we'll talk markets the economy your job your industry the moorlocks in dc will discuss fires and hurricanes and anything else that comes to mind if you do not get this radio show in your city we'll post it at gary k.com we'll post it on our twitter feed which is now x and if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you like to email us, all you got to do is be nice. Why? Because we'll

be nice back, no matter what. You can disagree with us 100% on certain things, but that's okay. We will respect you for your opinion. Really? Seriously. Now, of course, if you love Hamas, we will have no respect for you or things like that. Okay, where do I want to start today? I want to discuss the fires first. You know, we always talk to you about leadership and what we expect from the people that are running the country, in the states, in the cities. And we've been so disheartened for so long. And sometimes you don't even have to have an opinion. We don't have to have a why. All we have to do is say, oh, $36 trillion of debt. Insider trading violations that we would go to jail for that they do every day. The lies, the BS, the corruption,

you name it. And all we want them to do is put their best foot forward, do good things. But what's the number one job of leaderships? Protect the citizenry. Number one job.

It pissed us off so much the January 6th. That pissed us off that people went to the Capitol and did what they did. And we're very unhappy with Trump that he says, oh, it was a beautiful day and he may pardon a bunch of these people. At the same time, we were very pissed off.

I don't know if you remember those riots, the Black Lives Matters riots, where they destroyed cities. Not one person went to jail. That is not protecting the citizenry. In Washington, D.C., they have to put out flyers how to protect yourself from carjacking because they don't do anything about it. The shoplifting, go in New York City, any of the drugstores. Everything's locked up. Toothpaste is locked up.

Why? You got it. They just arrested somebody in New York City for the 88th time. You know what he did on the 88th time? He stabbed two people. It turns out, before that, he did other stabbings and violent things, and he was let out every time. we're finding out today that the Biden administration you know that Biden administration

the one that tells us they care so much about democracy and free speech they were calling up Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook telling them not to publish this not to put up that not to do this not to do that in complete violation we're finding that out today how do we know Mark Zuckerberg went on a show today

to tell us that hey thanks for telling us now Mark and then you have the fires. You can't prevent those fires. You can ameliorate some of it, though. You know how? They call them controlled burns. It's called getting rid of the rubble and the leaves and all that stuff along those mountains.

And they did none of it. We're finding out that the mayor of L.A. cut the funding for firefighters and she wanted to do another $50 million. We just found that out. And if you look at the reactions of the mayor as well as the governor, their defensive as defensive can be. You know what that tells you? They've had their heads up their butts, not protecting their citizenry, all the crime going on in many of their cities, the homelessness. He spent a bazillion dollars on homelessness, and they have more homeless than ever.

How about the, what is it, the fast trains and stuff? They spent billions, they got 1,600 feet of rail. I can go on and on about these miseries. Now, there was no way you can stop these fires, but you can also do a better job in the reactions. Failure. Failure. I spoke to somebody I know that lives six miles away from everything. And I didn't realize this.

They're saying the damage is like bigger than Manhattan, maybe times two. They're now talking $150 billion worth of damage. The commission, the insurance commission in California has come in and said, you can no longer cancel any homeowner's policies. and there's been a lot of that going on. People's lives have been turned upside down. I don't even know. There are people that lost multi-million dollar homes with no insurance.

There are people that lost, I don't know, half-million dollar homes with no insurance. I don't know how you recover from that. I'm not a celebrity person, but I got to bring. up Billy Crystal, lost his house. He said, I've been in here 49 years. Kids, grandkids, and I'm just thinking to myself if I lost that. So sending big time, I guess prayers don't work on this, right? But you know what I mean. Sending big time, the hope that this is going to take a while and I got to tell you these Santa Ana wins are still around so it can get worse before it gets better. I will tell you that the insurance stocks got smoked today. Allstate, Chubb,

what else got hit? A bunch of them. And actually I thought they'd be hit worse. The uncertainty that surrounds that area now, I don't even know what to tell. you know in Maui Lahaina basically the same thing happened same things going on there but this is a I believe a much much much much much bigger area and a lot more economic damage I think I'm hearing about I think eight people passed away anyway our thoughts are with them It's stunning to see. And unfortunately, the people that run that state in that area, the ineptitude is, boggles the mind. Protect the citizenry.

It's number one. Protect the citizenry. That's number two. Protect the citizenry. That's number three. That's the one, two, and three job. And you do it with police. And what do we have in some cities to fund the police?

How do you do it? Firemen. A good 911 system. You know, that's how you do it. And some of the things I heard from some of the firefighters is stunning to hear the ineptitude for preparation. By the way, I live in Florida and I know what the Santa Ana wins are and what they can do. Wish I had better news along those lines. Which has me segueing into the Marlins. and I wish I had better news along those lines. So I know what you're hearing today on why, but I'm going to strip away the BS, if you don't mind. So the story goes, the job number was really strong today, and that in turn had bonds continue to sell off, and the 10-year yield finished up all the way at 4.776 today, which is a new one-year-year-year. year high. And now we're entering the realm of the old high in December of 23, excuse me, October of 23, almost at 5%. The bond market didn't sell off today and yields go up because of a job market. I'll explain up next. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum,

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That's 8-8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with Ivy. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale.

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See website for full terms and conditions. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

Okay. So they came out with a job market number. number where created jobs were better than expected but here is the problem a lot of government and a lot of health care and that's government too manufacturing was down I wasn't impressed with it I think the interest rates went higher because we're just in a bearish phase for the interest rates and the market hates higher rates especially when the high every time rates go higher, it says Jay Powell

is farther away and missing the mark even worse. And we've told you what that means when the most important man on earth, the financial man on earth, is shown to be a buffoon.

Nothing personal, as I always tell you. I don't know the guy. Sure he's nice. But he works for us when the market sees he's way off the mark. Well, let me describe a few things for you. Let's go backwards. For weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks.

This show, your handsome and buffed host, who by the way, is up to, in nine days, 125,000 inclined steps in nine days. I'll do about 15 today, so that means I'm averaging about 14,000 a day when I'm done today. And I will tell you I added, like yesterday, I did squats at the gym. Needless to say, the hams are very sore today. But boy, oh boy, am I getting back in shape good? Those back spasms ain't stopping me anymore. Okay.

So for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks, this is what we've said to you on this show. We want you to avoid housing and housing and home builders. They've been smoked. We told you to avoid commodity types, steel, copper, aluminum, all that crap. they've been smoked. We've been telling you to avoid the consumer staples. For why we said consumer staples except for tobacco, well, they got the tobacco too.

Food, beverage, tobacco, household products. By the way, they mauled today. Constellation brands, which by the way is alcohol. It's a nice 17%. We told you to avoid, recently the insurance. That was maybe three, four weeks ago. They've been crumbling.

We told you to avoid the rails and the truckers. They've been blasted. We told you to avoid big biotech. Even Amgen and the Dow has crumbled. We told you to avoid most all health care, and that includes drugs and include Eli Lilly. Health care has been blasted. And that's a little bit from the new administration.

And by the way, that's not an indictment, a new administration, but the thought process is that there's going to be less money. And of course, the managed care stocks. We even warn you even when United Health was strong to be careful because the rest of them were getting blasted. We warned you to avoid defense stocks. Well, Lockheed and general dynamics, Northrop government have done nothing but go down. We told you to avoid a lot of economically sensitive stocks. and construction and building and materials, industrial types. And we even highlighted what we consider to be one of our great proxies, United Rentals.

And once that broke the 50-day, we alerted you, and that was around 830. It's 671 down from 900. Catapillar and Deer and Parker Hanifan and Albemarle and Illinois Toolworks and WW Granger and Otis Elevator and Packar and Sherwin Williams that just went into the Dow and Norfolk Southern and CSX blasted. We told you most transports to avoid except for airlines and airlines have stayed strong. We warn you recently about financials that were buckling, especially the regional banks. Most of the restaurants except a few. A lot of the semiconductor stocks, and I got to tell you, I'm not immune because that baby gapped up beautifully a few days ago, and I got caught a little bit.

Fortunately, I had a small position and got out. We warned you about oils for a long while. What is about 10 days ago we said, we're not bullish. but were off a void because oil prices were going up. We warned you about waste management was rolling over. We kept warning you about the bond market. We warned you about China and Brazil and the solars. And we were hopeful with China,

especially with David Tepper-like in it, but there's been no help. And in the last two to three weeks, we have been warning you about three-to-one negative advanced declines. we've had too many of them and what that does is worsens the patterns worsens the stocks today 810 up on the New York

3416 down today 912 up on the NASDAQ 3,282 down we warned you about new yearly highs and new yearly lows today 31 new yearly highs on the New York 261 new yearly lows That's a new recent record on new lows for the New York.

On the NASDAQ, 50 new highs, 274 new lows. And when I say new yearly highs 31 and 50, there ain't that many. Because when you put up the new yearly highs, part of those new yearly highs are non-operating companies. and a bunch of what I call no sales biotechs or stuff like that. Delta Airlines is a new high. Constellation Energy is at a new high. United Airlines at a new high. Celestica at a new high.

Not seeing too much after that. That's on the NASDAQ. On the New York, I got a few oils at new highs on top of those names. Not much after that. So more deterioration today. And we have another little warning. First off, the S&P is only down 4% from the highs. Not really a biggie.

But that's because of the makeup in the indices. How a select few are so important to them and they've been holding up. Yeah, kind of like not holding up anymore. We'll see. Up next, we'll get more in depth. And then the news. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, hello.

I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?

Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the time? timeline of this technology. There will come a point when it will mature. Right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very,

very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner, you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your area on a schedule that works for you. With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business. Plus, Amazon Hub Delivery makes it easy to get started. There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash Hub Delivery. That's Amazon.com slash H-U-B delivery.

Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sung, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up

and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, I don't really gamble a lot. But, you know, we've been very good with football picks throughout the years, and I haven't done that in a while either. But I've always told you whenever we see in NFL or college games where the line moves crazy one way, I just bet the other way.

Blindly. Last night, Notre Dame went from minus one to plus one in like the two hours leading up to the game. And for me, that's like a big move. I just bet Notre Dame. And they won by three. They could have lost the game. Interception at the end of the game got them the ball and the gentleman hit like a 40-some odd yard field to win it.

But that's what I do sometimes. My biggest wins is when I see lines move like crazy. And why is that? Because the masses usually lose. Gamblers usually lose. so when the masses go one way I go the other and I just happen to see the line go from minus one to plus one

I lucked out made a couple of bucks I believe Texas who they play tonight Ohio State I have no feel for the game but I love the Notre Dame coach and I've never understood

they did an interview with the guy afterwards and I had no idea Do you know that a black football coach in the NCAA's has never been to a final in the championship? I had no idea. She asked them about that after the game. I'm like, what's a matter with people? Do you really think the guy wants to be identified? Oh, whatever race?

Anyway. Ohio State, Texas. Ohio State's minus six. I don't know. I'll think about it. But let me describe for you some things in the market that I made note of, and we already scanned about 1,500 stocks. At the close of today,

Black Rock was down 30 bucks today. That broke the 50 day a few days ago and is just getting smoked into earnings next week. A lot of these big, financial companies report next week. Black Rock, huge company. Blackstone was down nine today to 164, breaking some support.

Goldman Sachs broke the 50-day-to-day handily on a pickup and volume. Why am I bringing these up? Because one of the areas that have held up pretty damn well are some of these big banks, but not anymore. P. Morgan almost breaking the 50-day. Jeffries has been a strong name, broke the 50-day today, on a huge pickup in volume. American Express in the Dow, which has been very strong. All you got to do is look at my American Express bill every month, down nine today. So rough day for financials,

and that's one area I didn't want to see get in trouble. The Dow was down almost 700 today. The NASDAQ was down 317, NASDAQ 103, S&P down 91, transports 183, the socks down 124. Ugh. Ugh. The S&P finished just about at the lows of the last three weeks. The Russell 2000, well, that's already been. week, that broke below a little bit of what I would call important support. And just all the areas I had mentioned to you worsened. The one area that was strong today, Delta, Delta had some numbers,

Delta United, what else, Alaska Air, American, all had a good day today. All had a good day today. So the airlines. A few retail stocks were actually decent. I will tell you Costco was up. They had their comps late Wednesday. Even that reversed to be down near the close in the middle of the day, but rally towards the end of the day.

It was just, I read to you the advanced declines. Not good. China worsened, foreign markets worsen. I'm looking at these. economically sensitive stocks and I'm like what's going on and just more trouble. The last individual stock I owned was Nvidia and just got stopped out, bought it beautifully, added on the gap, faded the gap before you can say boo. Before that lucked out with Tesla and Netflix, both got $100 gains in short order.

and Netflix down 37 bucks today breaks the 50 day on 62% volume not so sure that's good news service now one of the stronger software names breaks the 50 day today not so sure that's good news Salesforce.com in the Dow

further below the 50 day moving average not so sure that's good news Visa breaks the 50 day in the Dow. Not so short, that's good news. Apple, which is in the Dow, finished a little bit below the 50 day, down almost $6 today. Was down 8 in change?

Next week, Wednesday, Black Rock, Bank of New York, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Wells, Fargo, Thursday, Bank America, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC Bank, U.S. Bank Corps. We'll know a lot more next week. Oh, by the way, United Health reports Thursday also. Friday, here's some more.

Truist, which is the old SunTrust, we still don't know why they change the name. State Street Bank and Regents Financial. So big week for financials. We'll see how it plays out. Why would they get hit if interest rates go higher on the long end? Why? Well, be tougher to do deals. Number one, that's for starters.

If they're going to raise money through bonds, they have to pay out more. Number two. And maybe number three, if yields keep going higher in the real world, will Jay Powell have to start playing catch-up? Huh. We'll see. all I know is ew

I wish I had better news to tell you there's not much more I can say before today fewer and fewer stocks were working and then we get another three to one plus negative day the whole

let me make sure before I tell you this the gap from the election is gone on the S&P the financials yeah the xlf is gone the regional banks gap gone yeah the whole election gap is gone why would that be why would it be if you have a president-elect coming in that's pro-business why would that be because interest rates are going higher and they're a direct direct direct cause and effect in markets. Now, we're here, inflation ticking up a little bit.

Fine. I watch the 10-year yield. That's all I tell my peeps on TV. Every time they bring it up, just watch the 10-year yield. Don't worry about the Fed. J. Powell's lowered rates from 5.5.5 to 4.5. The 10-year yields have gone from 3-6 to almost 4-8. Guess what matters more?

The 10-year yield is Filet Mignon. Jay Powell is spam when it comes to what matters. The only time Jay Powell mattered a lot when he was printing $9 trillion to $9 trillion. That's when he interfered with the markets and created all kinds of distortions. Like what we call the 3-7. Who wants to sell a house with a 3% mortgage and get one for $7? Up next, I'll come up with something. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.

I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just a lot of, how do different accelerators go together? It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM

because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature.

Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub delivery is looking for ambitious business owners.

to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner, you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your area on a schedule that works for you. With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business.

Plus, Amazon Hub Delivery makes it easy to get started. There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.

Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORA-Ida, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick-up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.

What are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Inverster's Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I am actually not traveling this weekend, which is next weekend. I will be, it's three-day weekend, and I'll be flying up north. As my miles keep growing and growing.

In the news, and this is what I'm talking about. So you have the governor of California, Gavin Newsom slash California's funding for wildfire and forest resilience by 101 million less than a year ago. He signed the budget cuts June of 2024, severing funding from seven programs focused on preventing and battling potential wildfires in the state. what did I tell you? And maybe that wouldn't have prevented anything. Maybe it wouldn't, maybe it didn't.

But you know what we keep seeing every year? What do we keep seeing every year? Fires in California. And what does the media do? So you had Trump complaining, DeSantis complaining, and the media asked DeSantis, why do you keep complaining about Newsom? Because the number one job of somebody who runs a state is to protect the citizens of the state.

Anyway, you can go read about that. Again, I'm sure he means well. He just sucks. That's all. The mayor of California demanded 49 million budget cuts for the fire department. Why would you cut the fire department in an area that is notorious for big fires? That's on top of the 17.6 million in cuts already. You catch in my drift?

I just have to bring these things up because if you don't hold the leaders to account, and just remember, we don't have a bias. we started this show holding Trump to account. We don't care. We just want good policy. And now we'll defend Trump a little bit because they did something with a sentencing today where he's not going to jail, but he's now on record a convicted felon. My take.

The people ran New York before anything was going on said, we're going to go after him. him and they did. They made up some crimes and they did. If he was a Democrat on their so-called side, they would have never gone after him. And there was no better people in this country. There's no that got him voted in as president. They were fabulous to get him voted as president because people saw him as being attacked. There's video of the DA saying, I'm going to get him. And that's not what a DA is supposed to do. The first impeachment was a scam on Trump.

It was a scam. I believe the second impeachment had to do with January 6th, right? I'm going to have to look that up in the timing. But definitely the first impeachment was a bunch of BS. So there's a little defense. Now, also, I want to go with the fires. The California State Insurance Commissioner just banned insurance cancellations for one year. Hey, gee, thanks for doing that now.

You know what the problem with that is? If these insurance companies cannot afford, especially with these costs that are going to be coming down the pike here soon, it's going to get all interesting. All we can tell you is we are in hopes. we're keeping our fingers crossed. Well, you know what? It's bad. There's no way to put lipstick on a pig. Areas and homes are just absolutely destroyed in that area.

And we just are wishing them well. It's tough to even see. And you know, North Carolina is going through from the hurricanes. I see the president said the federal government's going to back. this up but didn't do a thing for North Carolina going forward. Interesting how politics from up high will keep you informed. And in 10 days, Trump front and center will hold his feet to the fire. We will try to contact them if we think they're not doing right, especially in the financial business, maybe they'll take our call. Back on the markets, I wish we had

better things to tell you. More and more names, more and more areas in trouble. It is no help that we have a little bit of a one-two punch. As I mentioned yields going higher, I did not mention that oil prices are up another $2.57 today. and have gone up, let's see, in about four weeks, 15%. Natural gas prices are on the move also. So the cost of energy and the cost of capital both going up at the same time, this shall be watched. Again, wish we had better news.

You all have a great weekend. drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. Stay well, be well.

We'll be back on Monday. If you're out there in California, we're with you. Good night all. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Amazon Hub Delivery wants to partner with your business.

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partner, a local coffee shop owner, florist, automotive shop, dry cleaner, you name it. Refer a business today and earn $500 when they successfully join the program. Visit amazon.com slash hub delivery to learn more or refer a partner. That's amazon.com slash hub delivery. Now looking for hub partners in your area. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin.

Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.