Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Credit cards and Powell [01.12.2026]

Episode Date: January 12, 2026

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At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's January 12th. It's Monday. It's 2026. Hope you're having a good day. Hope you had a good weekend. Got back from Cold New York and I'm in Cold Florida now. Got a little cold spell here. Yay. Hey, ladies and gentlemen, with no agenda, ulterior motive or bias. We have a lot to discuss today.

You know, every now and then said, oh, you're biased. No, we're not at all. We care about a few things. when it comes to what we do on this show. Free markets, capitalism, Washington, D.C., not full of crap, and you. That's it. In a nutshell.

And the crap that we are being served right now can fill a few kegs, and we'll get to that in a minute. We'll also do the markets because they were sore thumbs. The economy, your job, your industry, and the very newsy weekend. And if you do not get this show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed.

If you don't follow us on X, you should. We'll also post it on podcast apps as well as the Biz TV YouTube channel. If you like to email me, it's pretty simple. You'd be nice. disagree with me a thousand percent but be nice what a concept let's start out with the most important part of the equation we're now four and oh in our football picks so we have told you that when it gets to the playoffs and big college games i i don't know how we got there we just have this tremendous knack of winning.

And we've given out the Super Bowl since 2000. I think we've lost four. In the playoffs, which we stopped doing a few years back, we were like 75%. In big games, we hit most of them. And we just decided to bring it back this year. We're four and no. We just gave you the over in the Miami and the Bears. And I must state for the record, I don't know how the Bears won that game.

but they did and they covered. That's all. So we're 4 and 0. We're very picky about not doing too many games. And we'll keep coming at you. But we're 4 and 0. I believe there's a game tonight, but I really don't have an interest.

What is it? Houston Pitt? Yeah. Houston's the better team. great defense Pittsburgh has an old Aaron Rogers still good Houston's minus three

I don't have a feel so we're going to take a pass on the game but we're 4 and 0 and of course in the next week we'll have Miami in the big game against Indiana. And we'll have, what's the next

divisional rounds? Buffalo, Denver, San Francisco at Seattle. Buffalo at Denver, San Francisco at Seattle, Rams at Chicago, and to be determined whoever wins tonight to play New England. And we'll stay on top of it. But we're 4 and 0.

Just letting you know. 100% is pretty good. All right. Unfortunately, We have to move on. So the Sergeant Schultz defense is back at hand. So as you know, we think most politicians are just full of crap. They are liars, cheaters, corrupt, some worse than others. They read poll numbers and will lose all of their soul and their conscience just for a re-election.

Let me give you one example this weekend, and we're not making this up. The Marxist Party, who had said absolutely nothing about Jews being attacked, synagogues being attacked, Hamas being terrorists. Everybody in the Marxist Party started tweeting out how Hamas is terrorists, the people that were at a synagogue in New York City, praising Hamas this weekend, these sick, twisted pricks. The Marxist party, all of a sudden, all of them, including AOC who hates Jews, including Mondami who hates Jews, all out there saying we can't have this. Anti-Semitism's bad, blah, blah, blah, blah. Guess what they all did?

They got on some Zoom together, and they realized how stupid and moronic they look, so they had to change their whole freaking stance, and that's what they did this weekend. scum, just a bunch of scum. That's just one thing. And then the Sergeant Schultz defense. So in case you don't know, the president came out and said, he knew nothing about his Department of Justice,

putting out a criminal referral against Jay Powell, because in testimony on Capitol Hill, something about renovations and that I guess he gave a wrong number or something stupid. So we're just letting you know, the president said he knows nothing about it. So you obviously know he's pissing down your back and telling you it's raining, right? You do know that, right? You do know he's lying, right? You do know he's full of crap, right?

You do know all this is about is he's very upset that Jay Powell is not couched. towing to him, right? You do know he pardons people that he gets a bunch of campaign money from, right? You do know he says he's the drug fighting president, but he pardoned the Honduras

ex-president that was convicted, not indicted but convicted of trafficking 200 tons of cocaine. You do know all of this, right? You do know he's just full of crap, and I hate saying this. I take no joy. I want him to

win. I want him to do great things. He did great things with the border. Love it. But he's just a liar. He just makes things up. Oh, he knows nothing about the Department of Justice going after him. Didn't know anything about the Department of Justice going after other people that, by the way, went after him and we took his side. So just letting you know, Powell came out with a video that said, we're not, you know, buying into this and we're just going to do our thing. And we're just going to do our thing. We know what this is about, and it's all politics and whatever, whatever, whatever, whatever. It just irritates the hell out of us when a president of the United States treat us like infants and treat us like we're idiots. And to say, I know nothing.

He directed the whole thing. And he went and after other enemies also, so-called enemies, comie and whatever, it's so depressing to watch. It really is. we had Biden for four years just lying out as you know what four years of it and you hope you just hope and now we have Joe Biden number two and he doesn't have to

he doesn't have to there's no reason for this try and ruin a man's life and as you know I've been the biggest critic of his performance Jay Powell but this is different So anyway, that happened, and the worry was the market was going to get hit, and the market, Dow was down 400 early in the day, it finished up 86, because if the market wants to go higher, it's going higher regardless of this. So that was a story today.

And Jay Powell's going to be around until May, and you know what's going to happen after that? Jay Powell gets the say as a Fed governor at 2028, if he wants to. I got to tell you, if I was him, I'd get the hell out of there. and just say, throw your hands up and go screw yourself, Trump. I'm out of here. Have a nice life. That's what I'd be doing. I gather he's wealthy.

I just go to Spain for a couple of years and just go. You know what the no-win situations are? It's that. The guy is getting death threats, I'm sure. People are cursing him out. And also the Kool-A drinkers are acting like Trump knows what he's talking about. Trump keeps saying, oh, he's too. ladies, two this, he's two that. No, Jay Powell should have been fired when he was printing to

nine trillion bucks and taking rates down to a half percent, 10-year yield, which is what Trump wants. Jay Powell in the last year and change has taken rates from five and a quarter down to three and a half. There's nothing wrong with that. Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it. And then we've got to do credit cards before the market. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people, we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And walk once again to Investors Edge.

So, it just nauseates me. Because, just like under Biden, I have to verify everything Trump says and nine out of ten things is BS. The numbers he puts out are embellishment, up the wazoo. you name tariffs are paid by China insulting of the intelligence but the big thing is the Kool-A

drinkers so in the last year whatever Powell has lowered rates from 5 and a quarter three and a half he is now buying up bonds which is a form of quantitative easing he's doing everything Trump wants but you know what Trump needs to do

he loves enemies so let's make him an enemy anyway if I was J. Powell I just, hey, Donald, I'm out of here. Have a nice life. Anyway, we have three more years of this nonsense. Next. And by the way, and the shame of it is he does some really good things also.

Credit cards. Trump out of nowhere proposes there should be a 10% cap on credit cards. So American Express was down $16 today. Capital One was down 16. MasterCard was down 9 Was worse Geez MasterCard was actually down 20 and finished down 9

And Visa was down 11 Finished down 6 And Synchrony Financial Was down 7 bucks They are private label credit cards I'm pretty sure they hit The Buy Now Pay Later crap AFRM was down 6%.

What's that other one? Upstart was down 8%. So let me tell you my opinion of that. I hate it! So as you know, Donald Trump does not care about free markets. He's an interventionist. He's not a capitalist. Capitalism is about the free flow of businesses and markets.

He is an interventionist. We call it control freakism. That's why he wants to put in all his buddies into the Fed, so they lower rates down to one. He doesn't realize because he doesn't know me and never heard of me that I'm the guy who predicted massive inflation under Powell when they printed and got too easy money. If he sat down with me right now, I would tell him if they try going down to 1%, the 10-year yield is going to go to 7 or 8 and all hell's going to break loose. but he wouldn't listen to me anyhow. Anyway, here's the problem with telling credit cards they can only charge 10%. It's simple.

Number one, you're being a anti-capitalist. You're being an interventionist. You are being a control freak, and that in itself is a problem. You already know that government's been buying into companies, which also irritates the heck out of me. I don't like seeing that either, and he's directing this, directing that. Apple pays $1.8 billion in tariffs and goes to the White House. Tim Cook bends the knee and all of a sudden they get exemptions. None of this we like. So you tell the credit card companies, all you can charge is 10. Oh, the 22, you can't do that anymore. So here's what happens. You ready? They're going to cancel a crap load of what they deem riskier cards. a ton of them. Out of nowhere, you are going to get a letter from whoever issues cards saying,

because of this, it is eaten into our business, this, that, and the other thing, and what you owe $7,000 on your credit card, you can no longer use the credit card, but feel free to pay it off as long as you need be at 10% plus whatever the late fees are. be number one. That would be number one. Number two, the market cap of these companies would drop by hundreds of billions, so shareholder wealth would go down. And number three, job losses. You can't tell companies what they can charge. Now, I know they're doing it with drugs and this and that, but I give them the due on that because a lot of the government pays

that stuff. I'm actually pretty good. I don't like price controls, but when I see my bills if I go to a doctor or a hospital and see how convoluted and crazy it is, I still remember in 87, my wife was in the hospital for ulcer of colitis,

and she got a bill that had Tylenols for $26 for $2. And they said it was cost sharing. It's just sheer insanity. But no, I don't like anything about him dictating to credit card companies. And I know it's noble and they're talking about affordability, but I will let you know that would distort things and make it everything worse. Just like I say, he should not get involved in the housing market. The housing market is also

fixing itself. So we're not happy with the president this weekend. We wish he was a capitalist, not an interventionist. We wish he would stop targeting people he doesn't like, but he don't care what we think. I'm just nobody. And I could be a very big help to him if he listened to us.

But I'm hearing he had a lot of people in his purview begging him not to do this thing with J. Powell and he still did it anyhow, so why would he listen to me? Anyway, that's the story and the Dow was down 400 on the open. I'm thinking myself, why did this the market have to go down because he's targeting J-Powl? And the Dow finished up 86. Strength today, Goldman Sachs up 10.

I guess they don't have credit cards. Caterpillar up 12 and a pretty decent artificial intelligence trade today for some of the weak stuff. You know how we've been talking about the big bear market in Corweave? That was up like 10% today. Still down 55% from last June, but good move. Oracle. Nice little move above the big number of 200 today. Still down from 345, but better.

And some of these down-and-out tech slash artificial intelligence, pretty darn good day. I didn't see any news on it. Just we came into this year and you got a nice bid in that area. Simple as that. A nice bid. You got new highs. You know, I think the Dow's, I think everything's close to new highs. China had a strong overnight.

Alibaba, I can tell you that turned up today with volume above the 50 day, though their number stink. Buy-Doo that is doing a IPO of their artificial intelligence chip company that had a good day for China and even the FXI it's an exchange traded fund for China jumped above the 50 day today in a long range but looks like it wants to do better

so that was good the emerging markets ETF new high the I don't have much to complain about up next This, that, and the other thing, and whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one to only investors' edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

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He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And I feel like I have to say this again because, you know, there is a decent amount of people that have this thing. You have Trump Darrangement syndrome.

I just want good policy and no bull crap. Is that asking me? much from your leaders? Seriously, is that just asking much from your leaders? When I say to you, oh, this guy campaigned for 10 years against the neocons, the warmongers, the interventionist with other countries. And now he even said this last week, if Greenland doesn't do this, we can do with the easy way or the hard way, the hard way meaning military. Military in Greenland, and he's got people convinced. He makes up this story that if we don't do it, it's going to be China and Russia.

Greenland's been who they are forever. It's just made up. And you have to remember, whether it's Trump, Biden, Obama, before him, all these politicians, their mantra is to create a crisis and lie about the crisis in order to, to make a move, the climate change crisis, and go on and on, Greenland, because of them. So it's just demoralizing. I think I said to you before, under Biden, that if my sons were young, I would not want them to look up to Biden.

Why? Because his whole family's fricking corrupt. He, on purpose, opened the border, which puts us all in harm's way. lies every day that the border is secure, gave away billions to friends as he walked out the door. I have to say the same thing. I don't want my, if I had kids, I don't want them to be Donald Trump. I wouldn't mind them being rich. I don't want them lying.

I don't want them BSing you. I don't want them targeting people, targeting the supposed enemies. And getting payoffs from the, I don't want it. And I take no judgment. joy and my biggest worry is I really do believe one of the big problems is he's got the world by the you know what's right so you think you can do no wrong what happened during liberation day the market crashed they had to change their mind that day and I know for a fact the white house was up and was gone nuts over that weekend and they finally backed down from the liberation

day the market dropped 10% in two days and that was after already weakness I am so wishing them the best. I so want good things to come from them. But this weekend was an absolute, for somebody like me, that just wants just an absolute mess. And puts a man, Jay Powell, in harm's way now. He's in harm's way for no good reason. That's my take rest of the market. So you're down 400 finish up 86. The two most important names Caterpillar up 12, Goldman up 10. As I have told you, Goldman the highest name is 39, 25 times more important to the down numbers, the index, than Verizon. Because it's price weighted. What's another cheap one? Let's see. Coke is on.

only 70 bucks. So it's about seven times thrown. It's about 14 times more important than Coca-Cola. What else you got that's cheap? Cisco is only 73 bucks. About 14 times. Nike is only 65 bucks. So about 14 times. And welcome to the world. And if Goldman and Caterpillar are doing well, I got news for you. It's getting tough to break the Dow. Those are two names. There are some other heavy priced names also. Microsoft's there. And it's Microsoft is not in a big bear market, but it's in a corrective mode. But nothing untoward.

American Express is up there down 18. What was it, down 16 today? That's news driven. But I got to tell you, I don't think that 10% is going to happen for the credit cards. By the way, one other thing Trump said this weekend, if they don't do what the law says, they're going to be in. big trouble. There is no law about 10%. I don't understand why anybody says something that's not true that you can look up five seconds later. I know it sounds like I'm ripping on him, but I got to tell

you, he earned it this weekend. And again, I'm hoping for great things. I'm really hoping for great things. I'm hoping for great things. I had a few other notes. A Bitcoin. Looks like a decent retest of a little higher low in its bare market. I can tell you if I-B-I-T can get above 5255, maybe a start. That's one of the Bitcoin ETFs. If GBT can get above 7245, you know what that start is, jumping back up above a declining 50-day moving average. That would be a start. Leave no doubt, though, it would just be recovery in a pretty decent bearish phase.

Gold and silver. I don't even know what to tell you. Silver was up 6.7% today. And remember we said for about five or six days, you had these wild gaps both up and down. And I said to you, you know, that's often a sign. of a trend change and since the trend was up maybe it starts heading down and new high ground today a gold uh new high ground though it's sold down a little bit from the highs today the gold miners new high ground though it's sold off and i get a lot of emails from people isn't this a worry

sign isn't it a worry sign for the economy isn't a worry sign for the markets when gold and silver skyrocketing. I would suggest to you in the past, yeah. And maybe in the future, yeah. Market don't care about it right now. Simple as that. Next, restaurants. Restaurants have turned the corner indeed. Even some bad news is getting bought up. And we say turn the corner, they stop going down and they're starting to build stair steps north, not south. And that's pretty much all of them right now. Wingstop jumped above a little range today. Texas Roadhouse really jumped above a little range today. Cheesecake Factory jumped above. By the way, they've had good moves over the last six days. Very good moves to me. Since the first day of the year, that's where the money's

been flowing into the stuff that was dead. And what could say that the end of the year was tax loss selling? And once we got into the new year, without that, here they go. A strong name Breaker International's coming on. The strongest name is Dine Brands. That's IHop and Applebee's very strong I just want to make sure you know the stock is below where it traded in 2004

but in the near term a pretty damn good action for some of these stocks and is there any reason why restaurants I have no idea don't know even Cracker Barrel's going up a little bit right now

even Cracker Barrel's going up a little bit right now even Cracker Barrel barrel. Commodities overall, again, strong, that is the steel, copper, aluminum, and all that. The housing stocks that got juice because the president is injecting 200 billion in mortgage-backed securities up again today. Was better, up again today, and that's come up the right side also. Probably needs some rest, some pullback. China, as said very by the way Japan also China very strong but if you look at the fxI it's just a little bit above where it was last March and it's still below the highs of September

but you know what we think of setups we're always looking for something to set up to go north and south they set up to go north up next this that and the other and whatever else. This is the one only. Investor's Edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your first? Wallet, Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And what once again to Investors Edge? By the way, you know when I worry, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders agree with the president on price caps. And obviously Elizabeth Warren knows nothing about capitalism, except for corrupt capitalism, as she was a fraud many years ago, in claiming she was Indian heritage and she got big money because of it and status. Just another corrupt slug. Just another corrupt slug that has a vote on our future in Washington, D.C.

God, I hate all that. Okay. I'll be done with the president for today. Hopefully we have nothing to talk about tomorrow as far as that's concerned. just want to point out the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 have not broken out to new highs yet they're in about a 12 week range

but that's because of weakness in meta Microsoft Apple Broadcom Netflix, brutal bear market Qualcomm's breaking down again Amazon better but nothing special Tesla better but nothing special

eight stocks 65 to 70% of the NASDAQ 100. Some people dispute that. I have it. Go to slickcharts.com. It's right there. If those eight stocks underperform and the other 92 perform, you end up with an index going nowhere.

That's how crazy things are. We bought the queues with the spiders back in late April. We don't own the cues right now because of that underperformance. But if the cues break out, we'll be there again. again, but that will only be because you're getting better action during the earnings season for some of these mega cap names. Number one, I forgot to mention Nvidia. Nvidia stock with all the talk trading at 185, 184994.

August 5th, it traded 184.48. It's up 50 cents from August 5th. August to September to October to November to December, five months of no gains and is down from 212 back in November. 16 and 12 is 28. It's not about 13% from the highs, which is not bad. But that's also the number one stocks in the QQQQ. I think it's 14%. I'm pretty sure.

So that's 14 times what the average should be. And it's up there in the S&P. also. So that's why that is underperforming where the S&P is new highs, midcaps, Russell, I mean, transports. So it is pretty broad-based right now. We'll keep you in mind if it changes, you know we've got a big mouth. I'm pretty sure what's going on here is massively easy money again. You've had three to 400 rate cuts around the globe. You have Jay Powell go from five and a quarter, three and a half, and is now going even easier by not letting the printed money run off. He's taking that money. He's buying bonds.

And then you throw in President Trump with the $200 billion of mortgage bonds, which, by the way, got mortgage rates down late last week. But watch the 10-year yield. It's still hanging below the 4.2%. If the 10-year yield breaks above that, something to be watching closely. But as far as markets go, I can pick out where the bare markets are. I can pick out the bearish stocks. All I can tell you since coming into the new year, the worst stocks are better. It feels like it was late year selling for tax loss.

Broad market is picked up. New yearly highs are picked up. But we'll keep close watch. There's a lot of moving parts right now. And let's not forget, valuations are definitively on the expensive side. Definitively, I heard somebody say, but don't worry. Okay, we'll worry. Also want to mention some of the froth is picked up. Remember, three months ago we said, said, look out, and we didn't know the timing. A lot of the froth dropped 50 to 70%. They're bouncing them too now. But what's the story behind those?

If they continue to have no sales and market worsens, they all go back to where they came from. The hope is some of these get big sales. The post-the-child, O-K-L-O, supposedly signed some deals to do some things. I have no idea how long it's going to take when they'll have sales, but it bounced up a little bit because of that.

But if we start hearing, eh, not for five years, look out below. So we're in the middle of getting the middle of January, so far so good. I will tell you this week, a lot of the banks reporting. I can tell you tomorrow,

Bank of New York, J.P. Morgan, Wednesday Bank America, City Group Wells Fargo Thursday Black Rock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Friday, M&T Bank, PNC, Regents Financial and State Street. It will not be the news. It will be how things react to the news.

And as you know, we're up a little earlier in the morning and we're done at work a little bit later when we get into earning season and we are just about there. Next week it really starts to pick up. This week it's a few. Next week, it'd be a bunch. And I'm most interested in these semis.

Because some of them, some of them have made some serious moves based on we'll find out in time. We do know Sandysk, raise numbers big time as well as a few others. others not so sure. That all said, let me repeat, we're rooting for him. You all have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like I do, it's simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They'll feel better.

You will feel better. I say that at my sleep. Stay well, be well. We'll stay on top of it. Have a good night, everybody. Bye bye. with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes

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