Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Dastardly semis! [10.15.2024]

Episode Date: October 15, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Culp. I'm your

host. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Tuesday, October 15th, 2024. And we are jam-packed today. I'm not going to waste a second. First, this is Investor's Edge. Serious talk on everything that affects you. We have some things that are going to affect you today. Serious talk on everything.

Whether it's the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the Morlocks in D.C., you name it, we cover it, and especially as we head into the election. and if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on a bunch of podcast apps and all that other crap. And if you'd like to email me, you just got to be nice. It's simple. So in case you do not know, Brett Baer is going to be interviewing Kamala Harris tomorrow. And there's a lot of weird people out there, ladies and gentlemen.

You can't say something to people, and they understand that the first time you've got to say it five times sometimes, not everybody. So Brett Baer is at 6 p.m. His allotted time with Kamala Harris is from 5 to 6. And I don't know if they gave him a half hour, 45 minutes, or the whole hour. But it's not edited like others are doing, and it's going to be. taped but completely live. No changes, no commercials, no nothing. So just letting you know before you hear otherwise. That's number one. Number two, I emailed Mr. Bear, Brett Bear. By the way, he's a great golfer also. And because he asked for questions, and I don't know if he's going to do my question. But my question was, and by the way, I don't know if you know this, you know about 18 months ago that this administration came out with their Fiscal Responsibility Act.

Do you remember that? Do you know what fiscal responsibility means? Anybody, Bueller? Bueller? Oh, it means that when you get a dollar, you don't spend the dollar one. since the Fiscal Responsibility Act, our debts up $4.2 trillion. So I asked Mr. Bear if he'd like to ask them about how we can be up $4.2 trillion debt under their Fiscal Responsibility Act in about 18 months.

And then tell the country on numerous occasions they cut the deficit. How's that for a question? I then went on to add about the last four months. We don't have September yet. In the last four months, we're averaging $300 billion a month in deficits. The month of August, the last one we have, we sent them $308 billion. They spent $688 billion. It's my contention.

They're doing it on purpose to goose the markets and the economy into the election. We'll see if he asked that. That's number one. Number two, we pride ourselves on having a good eye in the market. We pride ourselves more than that on what we do when we're wrong. We're wrong. I got to tell you, we stopped out of probably five things in the last couple of months, but they're all small losses.

and the hope is the gains will be bigger. We could have had a big loss today. We could have had a big loss today. But we didn't. And we didn't because one of my strict rules, one of my very strict rules, you know, we believe the market is full of gremlins and we believe nothing is good unless it's going up.

all this talk about belief and targets and all that we don't believe in any of that so we came in today holding a position in KLAC one of the semiconductor equipment stocks which beautifully turned up the right side yesterday with the rest of the group look just like crowd strike which we just made some good cheese on and it opened up quietly today. And then, and we knew there was some news overnight that this administration may look to restrict chip sales to other countries because they hate our businesses. I digress. And don't send me the thing, oh, whoa, the chips act. In the 10 o'clock hour, calm, quiet, and out of nowhere, I see the stock dump like 2% in like seconds.

I'm like what the hell's going on here. Did they come out with news that they're definitely restricting? I know what's going on. And then I look and ASML Holdings, a company in the group that's quasi important to other stocks. You know, when we say a stock is a bellwether and will move things, I don't deem ASML Holdings as one as them, but they announced, and I'm not making this number up, and kind of like a holy crap, they announced that their bookings, they see them dropping 50%. And I didn't even see that.

The first thing I did is I went to the KLAC chart. I looked at it and said, big number. and that means, as I've told you, one of our rules is the big number. Moving above $100 or $200 or $200 or $1,000, big numbers. And I said to myself, you know, I own the stock. I don't care if it breaks below the big number. I got to act. And we did.

Breaking below $800, not knowing how it'd finish. But a rule. Amazingly and stunningly, stunningly, an outlier move today. It finished at $707.72, down 14.7%. Asm. Held Holdings was down 1441 bucks today, down 16%. It took applied materials today down 11%. It took lamb research down 11%. These are all semiconductor equipment makers. And of course, there are others. I don't need to get into the rest. I'm just making my point. And it took down even the other semis. The socks today was down 287 points today. A huge drop giving back the last seven days of good gains. And that's after it bounced in the last few minutes. So I took a loss today, but I am thrilled with my discipline today as it prevented a big loss. And let me be clear,

I could have sold it breaking 100. It could have finished it 900 today. The rule goes, it's not what you don't sell that keeps going down. It's what you do sell that keeps going down. And it's not what you do sell that turns back up. You get my point. So just letting you know one of our strict rules really prevented, I don't drink, so it doesn't matter, but you get my point. What's the line from airplane?

It's a good time to sniff glue. Anyway, I just wanted to bring that up today because you never know. And you may say, it doesn't happen often, but I got news for you. It happened today. And I can tell you, it's happened a lot throughout the years. I remember we had flash crashes. Now, bare markets, the markets prepare you. Bear markets are like hurricanes.

They prepare you to get out. Because as we tell you, little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, stock by stock, sector by sector, goes by the wayside. Not today. Up next, what else? We got a ton. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum.

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And if the kids are taking over your space, Trofast storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom Storage today at IKEA.us. slash bedroom storage.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at appu.apus.edu. You. At the time, I've learned some things, like the

value of the family, the importance of the time, and that the 99% of the people of

the people that cause the Culebrilla. Although not all the people in risk,

they're I do you see the eruption dolorous with ampolls during

that even the things are all a simple, not learn about

the Culebrilla to the way to talk to

the doctor or pharmaceutical It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promise is to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. And, you know, normally we're not going to sit here and come on and talk to you about a trade here or there. I'm here to talk to you about something that's. stuck out on the rules we have and how we do things and how we don't screw around. We believe our gains are ahead of us, so if we keep our losses small, and this was taught to us by some of the best. And there's no perfection in it. The markets are fluid. The markets are insane. Today was one of them. And at the close today, the Dow was down 324, S&P 44, NASDAQ 187, NASDAQ 179. The SOX was down 287, which is the equivalent of like, how about 900 NASDAQ points? It was quite crazy. KLAC down 122, ASML Holdings 142, applied materials down 23 to 191.

Monolithic Power, 48 to 894. And then Texas Instruments 9, Terodyne 6, Micron 4, Lamb Research 9, arm holdings, 11. Analog devices, 10. Yikes! And by the way, that's off the lows. It was worse. And it took down other things also in the group, but not as bad. and just as a word, there's a bunch of next three weeks are earning season, ladies and gentlemen.

Big time earnings season and we'll be on top of it. For example, earnings. Goldman Sachs reported today. Opened up at 540, closed at 522. Make sure I got that right. Yeah, 540 closed at 522. Got distributed. City Group reported

opened up, finished down 5%. PNC Bank reported at one time today hit 197, closed at 192. So there was a little distribution because the market was crappy at the end of the day. And we'll see what tomorrow brings. But wow.

And I want to be pissed. Darn, I lost some money. But man, when all is said and done, strict rules just letting you know what else today Chwal Shraub reported was up four bucks

was up seven at one time maybe a little bit more than that United Health down $49 that's the most important stock in the Dow because it's the highest price actually down $51 at the close I got to make sure it's about right

down $51 That equates to, if I am not incorrect, the whole Dow loss today. Let's go 51 times 6.78. Yeah, the whole Dow loss. Now Chevron was down four, Caterpillar was down six, Salesforce.com was down three, but a few other things were up a little bit. And what happened with Chevron and the oils? It was announced that Israel told Joe Biden they are not going to attack Iran's oil facilities. so oil stocks were trashed.

Again, oil prices down three bucks today. And that's what did that trick. What else? As I said, we got a bunch of things I want to cover. In no particular order, Walgreens is shutting 1,200 stores, and it's a good move. Where I live, this pretty much for Wall Green's, within five miles, give or take.

I think there's just too many. There's pressures on how much they get from drug middlemen, fulfilling prescriptions, and just the whole retail sector. You got other chain shutting big time. Macy's Rite Aid, Kmart 7-11 family. Well, Kmart's another story. And Walgreens stock is trading at a 30-year low in case you don't. know. So that's a little bit of

wall grains for you. Starbucks, they're obviously not listening to me. Starbucks is scaling back. The new CEO discounts. I'm telling you their problem is they too high a price.

The new CEO thinks it's the discounts that take away the cachet of Starbucks that they deserve to get paid higher prices because they're Starbucks. And I hope he's right.

Only like success stories. But I'm not so sure this man has his ear to the ground of a much more price conscious consumer. I'm not so sure this guy gets it. We'll find out in time. I'm in disagreement. of this man right now. Again, I hope he's right. I think he's forgetting they're just selling coffee and some breakfast sandwiches. That's all they're doing. They're not curing cancer.

It's not a necessity, though there is a definitive addiction by some. But price conscience gets into the fray. We shall see. What else do I got for you? Interesting. They did an economic survey of economists. They say inflation and deficits will be higher under Trump than Kamala Harris.

Well, we know under Trump heavy deficits, but under Kamala Harris and Biden, much worse. Don't let him tell you different. and inflation under Trump was fine. Under Biden, Harris was a horror show, the worst since the 70s. Yet how can economists come out and say, under Trump, it would be worse? Interesting, huh?

Well, they are alluding to his tariffs. Trump is threatening 100% tariffs, 80% tariffs, 50% tariffs. I got news for you. That is inflation. But I got Newsfeer also He's not doing 100% tariffs He's not doing 75% tariffs He's not doing 50% tariffs

He may do some tariffs But he I think he's just putting people on notice Now if he puts 100% tariffs on We're dead So let's just hope if Trump wins He's kidding Because that would be a nut job move and of course, as you know, I completely disagree with tariffs.

Anyway, just letting you know, economists are out, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And we don't listen to them anyhow because, just remember, bias, friends. You know, this administration keeps quoting a certain economist who always says they're right. Up next, we got lots to cover, and we shall cover. I'm Gary, this is the one only investor's edge. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space.

With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardroves, full closet systems, even storage boxes, you can hold onto it all. Your vintage banties, keep them. Those limited edition sneakers, they stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walking closet? The Pax's wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails, and compartments, so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers!

The Storklint has six-door dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And, if the kids are taking over your space, TroFest storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun! From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom Storage today at IKEA.us slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu. At the age of the 50, I've learned some things,

like the value of the family, the importance of the job, and that the 99% of the people of more of 50 have the virus that cause a culebrilla. Although not all the people in risk the worker will be, I see the eruption dolorousa

with ampollos durned during that even the tasks more simple be saying all a retto. No

learn about the Culebrilla to the way to talk

or a about your for GSK you're listening

to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be

pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's

Cinderella boy with Gary Colb Com comes highly recommended you're

going to you're going to in okay next thing I

want to cover just as a reminder the Harris campaign has raised a billion dollars. By the way, this is not a put-down. We're just letting you know they've raised a billion.

I'm not sure what Trump's raised, but it's a lot. I just want you to remember years ago, we were told by these politicians, they've got great campaign finance reforms in place now. What a bunch of lying sacks. of crap, huh? How is it possible that a campaign can raise a billion dollars when we were told we have campaign finance reform? Remember what I have stated for you. I have never been more optimistic on us. I have never been more pessimistic on them. They are a bunch of lying sacks.

Just about every one of them. That's how you get to, we're going now to 36 trillion of debt very quickly and raise a billion dollars when they told us they had campaign finance reform. I just had to mention that. I'm sure Trump's probably, what, probably a half billion. I don't know that number, to be honest with you. Next. Ladies and gentlemen, first off, this is unconstitutional. Kamala Harris wants to provide one.

million loans to blacks at 20,000 a pop. Forgivable loans. In other words, she's handing out 20,000, which means she's taking from taxpayers and giving it to 1 million blacks. But that's not my issue. My issue is, does she think black men are idiots? Does she think black men just sit on the couch and do nothing? Part of her plan, are you ready for this? Not making this up.

This is part of her plan for black men. Legalize recreational marijuana and create opportunities for black Americans to succeed in the marijuana industry. So does she think black Americans sit on the couch being bad? broke and just smoke weed all day? Just asking. But then she also, part of it, launch a national health initiative focused on the illnesses

that disproportionately impact black men. Disproportionately. Really? So does she think black men are unhealthy, broke, laying on the couch, weed smokers? She's seen her poll numbers

on black men. They're not good. What have we told you about pandering in giveaways? I got news for you. They're a bazillion black men in this country that get up every morning with their families, going to work, trying to do better for themselves and their families, that don't smoke weed, that provide for their families, and pay taxes into the government

and are very healthy because they work out and take care of themselves. What does Kamala Harris think of black men? It's stunning. It's stunning. It's stunning. In my humble opinion. Another part of it is protect cryptocurrency investments so black men who make them know their money is safe. Are black men stupid with their money?

investments also that you need to teach them? I got news for you. I think most people I know whether black, white, Hispanic, gay, trans, short, tall, are a lot smarter than Kamala Harris and know how to take care of themselves and their families. What a pandering creep. I'm not making, I thought when I saw this, I was making it up. I thought it was the The onion. And it's amazing that they think this is what's going to buy votes. Talking down to black men. You may want to look up Robert Johnson.

Go look him up and see if he needed her help. I do believe he passed a few years ago. B.E.T. Entertainment. Maybe want to look up Irvin Magic. Johnson and how many businesses he has started and created great communities. Maybe she should look them up. I can give you a list of a bazillion. Just my thoughts on this.

I move forward because I'm not done. On the other end, Trump out talking about using the National Guard and military against the left? What? You know, on my pin tweet it says, and as I've said to you, the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague, I think it may be worse than that.

I'm going to get the military. What if somebody doesn't agree with you? Maybe you're going to go get the military and the National Guard on me because I don't like tariffs? Just let you know. Just letting you. know as we head into the election stunning stunning stunning what's coming out of the mouths of these

candidates and as you know trump called the people from january was whatever date that was hostages oh yeah sure they're hostages right we don't give any quarter here we want a president to be presidential, keep taxes low, regulations, but not onerous, defend the country and the citizens, and get the hell out of the way. The less said, good, the less done, good. How hard is that? How hard is that? What else?

I had a whole string of things, ladies and gentlemen. just stunning stuff. Oh, there's a freeze warning in the United States. Just wanted to let you know. A freeze warning? What? How can that be? We got global warming.

Just want to let you know there's a freeze warning from many states. I thought it interesting. And in Oregon, a top official was put on leave for prioritizing qualified job candidates over DEI. Somebody complained about him. They put him on leave because he wanted the best of the best for the Oregon Department of Forestry. Something that's pretty important, right?

Comes under the heading, the world is going nuts. If he doesn't look a certain way, act a certain way, say the right things. even though he's the best of the best and the most qualified. Get rid of him. Let's get somebody who's not qualified but fits our mold. Yes, that should work. How to let you know about that also.

What is happening to us? Hey, up next, this, that, and the other thing, we'll segue back to the markets, even though I don't want to. What a day. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space. With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardroves, full closet systems, even storage boxes.

You can hold onto it all. Your vintage banties? Keep them. Those limited edition sneakers? They stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walking closet? The Pax's wardrobe lets you cut. customized shelves, rails, and compartments, so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Stork Lint has six-door dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, TroFest storage boxes make sorting toys and

art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA bedroom storage today. at IKEA.us slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive,

and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.edu.

At the age of the 50, I've learned some things, like the value of the family, the importance of the job, and that the 99% of the people of more of 50 have the virus that cause a Culebrilla. Although not all the persons in risk

the will developer, I see the eruption dolorousa with ampollos durs, making that even the tasks more simple are all a retort, not learn about the Culebrilla

of the way difficult. Talk about your doctor or pharmaceutical patrocino

for GSK So You're listening to What are waiting for What are you waiting for One

Two Ready Go In In the Gester's Edge With Gary

Culpa So A stunningly Yuck day Unless you own Like some of

these Banks Some other sundry things Gold was up. But man, oh man, they did something outlier today, some very important semiconductor stocks. Tomorrow will be another day. We'll see how it goes. Wow. I was humbled today. And it's actually a good thing.

Being humbled by the market and losing a little is a good thing. Makes you more focused. makes you stay on top of things but boy oh boy one of our rules stuck out like a sore thumb the big break of 800 today and the stock finishes at 707 KLA 10 core

already got emails from some people do you think it's a value I don't know beats the hell out of me certainly wasn't today what else went on to today. As I mentioned, oils got hit, managed care got hit, led by United Health, down 49. And as I explained to, it is the most important stock in the Dow because it is price weighted.

I don't understand how they can have Intel in the Dow at $22, but United Health at $556 at the close. What do I mean by that? Well, let me just do an exercise for you. If Intel went to zero today, it would be $153,000. Dow points. If United Health, which closed at $556 today, and it went to zero, Intel 153 points, United Health 3,769 points, more than 20-some-odd times more important to the Dow Index, United Health versus Intel. What can I tell you? and there there are verizon's only $43

Cisco is only $54 $54, Coke is only 70 and then it moves around so United Health was definitively no help today interest rates came down today 4.038 so that helped the interest rate

sensitive I saw the real estate investment trust had a better day housing had a better day some housing related had a little better day that needs to break out. Economically sensitive stocks did not have a good day. They came out with this New York Empire manufacturing number.

You know how they say the economy is good? And I keep telling you, man, there's so many cross currents. It came out. It was like big recession numbers. But the job numbers last week or came out good. So who the heck knows what's next? All I can tell you,

they slam the hell out of the semiconductors today. Dang. I'm glad I didn't own a crap load of them. That's all I can tell you. China, I have to mention we've been saying to you, it went up so much, so soon it looked like the redwood trees topped by the Eiffel Tower, topped by the Seattle Space Needle.

We've said to you, we're going to be looking for constructive pulling back into moving averages. but the worry is this has been government doing its thing. And is it going to be, is it going to work? Is it going to iron things out? I'm just letting you know, today's the first day I'm going to tell you, and that can change.

The pullback doesn't feel like it's too constructive anymore. I'm seeing some names breaking some areas. I'm seeing the ETFs getting a little bit. more than I would have wanted. Tomorrow will be another day and see which way it decides to gap up or whatever. All I can tell you, we haven't touched it. It gapped up immediately. The first go-round did two more gaps.

And we'll let you know. Again, the issue is you got this guy, control-free communist run in the country, that all of a sudden unleashed what can only be described as J. Powell times five. but we have capitalism here. They have, I don't know what you call it these days. So stay tuned. But again, today will be the first day where I say to you, this does not look as good as I was hoping.

That can change tomorrow. And that's China. Of course, China-related. The casinos that are in China, pulling back, copper, which moved along of the commodity. move pulling back. So less than thrilled. And again, that can change.

But it seems like what else can they do? And again, in China, they have a property business trouble. They have a debt worry trouble. And I just worry when government's doing everything. That's just me. And that, by the way, Bank of Japan, owns 80% of the country's ETFs and 7% of the entire Japanese market and 55% of the Japanese government bonds. So a little Asia thing going on.

We'll keep you informed. But overall today, I'm just glad I got the hell out of that way. That could have been a doozy. Tamar, not a clue. of the week, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bank Corp, CSX, Discovery Financial, Blackstone, Key Corp, M&T, Bank, Travelers, Netflix, Intuitive, Surgical, Taiwan, Semiconductor, Procter & Gamble, Co-Merica, Allied Financial, American Express. And then next week, I believe, we start getting the Amazons, the Apples, the Googles, and the Microsofts. Stay tuned. Hey, you all have a great evening drive carefully.

And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well. Mets 1-1 against the Dodgers.

Next game tomorrow. Thanks for joining. Peace out. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

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