Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - DAY 2 BETTER BROAD MARKET
Episode Date: October 17, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It's Tuesday, October 17, 2023.
Hope you having a good day.
As you know, this is a show about everything that affects you,
everything that affects you, whether it's the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment,
the Morlocks in D.C. and everything else under the sun, we will cover it if necessary.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now the X feed.
So you go to X, put our name in, start following.
We're very charming and sarcastic.
As you know, we've been starting every day talking a little bit about Israel.
and what's going on. And the latest is they're saying that a hospital has been blown up.
They first came out, Hamas, and says it's Israel. Israel's coming out and saying it's Hamas's
own missiles that went awry. Anyway, this is what sucks is that people in a hospital are dead.
That's the outcome. And we'll find out who the culprits are when all is said and done as
always but lots of back and forth President Biden's visiting there tomorrow because of this
hit on hospital he was supposed to visit with the Palestinian head that's now been axed and all I can
tell you is I have been retweeting all the hostages I have been retweeting re-eching reposting
the murdered we're not pulling any punches and I've been retweeting retweeting
And good to see, you know, these colleges, not all, when George Floyd was murdered by that policeman, they came out backing George Floyd full-throated in the black community.
Black Lives Matter at the time.
Of course, there's some chapters of Black Lives Matter.
We have found out to be nothing but fraud.
unfortunately gives ones that are trying to do the right thing a bad name.
All the stuff with the pronouns, they came out full-throated.
You got to treat everybody.
You got to do this.
You got to do that.
You got to do this.
How dare you say this?
When it comes to 1,300 Jews dead, not a word.
When it comes to a bunch of people on their campus praising.
beheadings and kidnappings and murders and depravity by a bunch of animals.
We believe in free speech.
So they didn't believe in free speech when you were talking about people using wrong pronouns.
Here's the good news.
You know what talks sometimes to these colleges?
Sometimes all the times?
Big money.
You know how many billionaires have told them to take a flying leap?
A bunch.
You know how much money has now been not...
taken away and not given to some of these colleges,
hundreds of millions of dollars.
It's amazing that the anti-Semitism,
the clear lack of the Jewish state by some of these people is just sickening.
You know we have one thought here about everybody, right?
We're all equal.
We should all be treated the same.
That's the way we see things.
We don't see any race, creed, color, gender,
be whoever you.
You can call yourself.
a truck for all I care. You can marry a house for all I care. And by the way, I saw somebody
who married, what was it? A kite, I believe I saw that. You do whatever you want to do.
As long as you do in the rule of law, and that's it. Who the hell am I to tell somebody what to do?
That's the way we see things. We don't see race, creed, color, gender. We believe. We believe.
believe in philanthropy, helping for people in need. That's what we believe in here. No in
betweens. Simple as that. And unfortunately, unfortunately, there's a select group that believes
Jews control the world, the nis and that, nis and that. They can all kiss mine. I told you
the story when I was 14 years old, I was playing on the junior tennis circuit. And we used to go from
Delray Beach to Sinesta Beach to North Miami Beach to Jackson all over Florida. I was at
Sinesta Beach Hotel playing in a junior tournament. I was playing doubles. My partner was black.
We went to some sort of cafe slash restaurant. There was a sign that we had no idea what it meant
selective clientele only. They didn't want blacks and Jews. That was in 1974. Look how far we've come.
Unfortunately, there's still plenty of it out there.
They wouldn't let us sit.
It was the funniest thing you ever seen.
And you know, I was a wise ass.
So I pulled out my money.
Here, you don't want this?
See this?
You're not getting this.
You sure?
You sure?
She threw a couple of four-letter words at me.
Anyway, we wish you all well.
We wish you all peace.
Good health.
And I don't know how we're going to get
passed all this so quickly because they murdered a crap load of people. They beheaded children.
Some people are saying, no, that really didn't happen. Okay. We'll segue. Because that's what we do.
Ladies and gentlemen, we're good at segueing because that's what we do. I came across something
today that I think are of import. You see, I am on some investment committees.
of some things.
Not going to mention what.
But just so you know, as a manager of money, listen carefully, because this is going to help you, banks,
if you have your money at the bank right now, you need to find out what you are making.
Because in case you did not know, you can right now buy a three-month treasury bill.
I'm just going to put the words in Google three-month T-bill yield and get, for that three months, currently, 5.51 percent.
Now, that's for the year.
So if it's $100,000, you get $5,510, and if it's a three-month, you get a quarter of that.
So if you're at the bank getting two-tenths of 1%, and they're not telling you about it, and they're not calling you about it, you need to do something about it.
That's number one.
Number two, as a money manager of myself, my family, and others, we get in accounts and we get a lot of bond funds in the accounts.
We're going to give you a lesson on bond funds right now and why if you own them, it is moi importante.
you may want to think about what we're about to tell you.
So what a bond fund is, there's a fund.
And let's say, it doesn't matter how much is in the fund at this point,
but they buy bonds in the fund.
And there can be short-term bond funds where they buy bonds less than three years,
which has less risk.
There can be long-term bond funds, which have a lot of risk.
The farther you go out, if the bond market goes around,
the more principle you can lose in the bond fund.
The reason why bond funds can lose a bunch,
while if you buy an individual bond,
loses less because in bond funds, it's perpetual.
In other words, they always have to be invested.
So when something comes due, they've got to go into something else.
And since they're always invested,
if prices are coming down, the bond fund is coming down,
and you can't really recover it.
Once the bond matures, they're going into the next,
the next so bond funds have been absolutely let me put it best smoked over the last couple of years
absolutely smoked um i'm looking at one i'm not going to even mention name here's a closed end fund
investing in u.s forward government securities for capital appreciation and high current income
it's gone from three dollars and eighty eight cents to two dollars and sixty six cents you
add that up um and there's just pure fixed income ones
that have gone down markedably, 10, 15, 20, 25%.
Here is what we are noticing right now.
First of, the bond market's still in trouble.
The 10-year yield is almost back to the highs of a couple of weeks ago,
and that's stunning because it's kind of like a straight-down, straight-up move.
Here is what I'm noticing on most of the bond funds.
You're listening?
They're yielding 3%.
How can they be yielding 3%?
and a three-month T-bills yielding 5.5.
How is they yielding 3% when the 10-year is yielding 4.85%.
Well, it's because they have all the old bonds.
They had to buy bonds when interest rates were nothing.
Up next, we'll complete the circle.
That's up next.
On this, the one only Investors' Edge.
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It doesn't get better than this.
So, these bond funds are still returning very low yields.
So what I want you all to do if you have bond funds, go check what the yields are.
Now, let me give you the good and the bad if you decide to sell, if you're getting 3%,
to go get a one-year T-bill that's paying five.
percent plus. Let me tell you the good and the bad. Immediately, you're going from 3% to 5%.
But when you go to that 5% T bill for one year, that's all you're getting.
100,000 bucks, let's say you take it out of the bond fund, you're getting 5 grand. No risk.
You're not paying state or local. You're paying federal. That's the good news. Riskless.
what are you possibly giving up?
Well, if bonds worsen, the good news is you're not losing more principle.
Because if interest rates keep going up, those bond funds are going to keep coming down.
But what if interest rates really start coming down?
Well, the bond funds will go up.
So you're giving up opportunity to make back principle you've probably lost in the last year or two
was however long you've had it.
That's the missed opportunity.
But that is an if.
And the fact is leave no doubt.
The bond market is in a major downtrend right now.
The yields are in a major uptrent right now.
And the little worry is I am hearing everyone say yields are close to topping out.
Do you know that?
I haven't heard anyone.
say yields are going to 6%.
10 year. I've heard nobody
say that.
I've heard nobody say they can go to
7%.
Nobody say they can go to 8%.
No one.
Even though our
debt is going to go from
33 trillion to 50 trillion
on a fast track.
And even though a ton
of that debt is going to
mature in the next one to three years
and come do it, they've got to put that crap
back right back out there. That's supply. And the more supply you have, the potential for yields going
up. Nobody is saying that. Well, we're not saying it either, except we're saying it could.
So just letting you know the good and the not so good. If I were you when you add bond funds,
I'd be checking what it's paying. If you're getting the three, you just so you know you can get
five and a half on a three months, six months a little less, one year's a little less.
You got that inverted yield curve.
Thank you, Jay Powell, you nickum poop.
All the talk is what the Fed's going to do next.
Remember, we're probably, I haven't heard anybody else say what we've been saying consistently, constantly, all the time.
All we've been saying is screw the Fed, don't even pay attention to them, just watch the 10-year yield.
They don't matter right now.
They mattered when they were printing to $9 trillion
bucks creating all kinds of distortions and all kinds of havoc
that created all kinds of bubbles that all croaked,
all kinds of distortions, screwing Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob.
You know what kind of distortion they created?
Bank of America just reported earnings today.
Bank of America, symbol BAC, and by the way, was up 2.3%.
they have $131 billion dollars of losses on long-term unrealized losses on the books.
You know what that was?
That was them buying longer-term bonds when they were yielding zero or just a little bit above
because they were forced to do it because of what Jay Powell did,
playing God with the bond market and distorting everything.
That's why the Fed came out and basically backstop all these losses.
and that's why we haven't seen another Silicon Valley Bank or that First Republic Bank, that went out.
So our central banks out there backstopping these big gigantic losses with nothing, because they don't have anything.
You know what the Fed has?
A trillion dollar lost themselves on all those bonds they bought, but it was with fake money.
So what do they give a crap?
We're in a, I don't know what universe we're in, when our central bank has lost a trillion bucks, printed 90s,
trillion of fake money, billions of billions of dollars in losses at the banks that don't worry
everything's okay. We'll backstop you. Think about that. I digress. If you have bond funds,
you may just want to check what the yields are. Go look at the chart, see if you're happy or if you're
not, and realize that if the bonds go the other way and yields come down, the principal will come back
up. That said, you're still in a major downtrend for bonds, a major uptrend for yields. And we're
just letting you know, we saw a few million bucks today that we're paying 3.1% and I brought it up
saying, why aren't we just moving this to 5%. And I got a lot of, how do I put this? I don't know.
I got a lot of, I don't know. Yeah, kind of sort of, yeah. And to me, it is no shades of gray.
here it's black or white on your income investments why screw with it that's just my take anyway
just want to let you know on that because i think it's important because i got news for you it was
zero percent two years ago i don't know if you know that the 10 year yield by the way was 0.39% in march
of 20.
The 10-year yield.
I'm not making that up.
It paid nothing. That's why Bank America's
down $110 billion.
A 10-year yield,
0.39%.
And J-Pel gets no blame.
He's Teflon.
It's amazing to watch.
This moron
printed to $9 trillion
money that he don't have.
Not a dime. No accountability
no oversight, the most powerful man on earth, it ain't the president.
And here we go.
And nobody, nobody is saying,
maybe we can go to 6% on the 10-year.
7.
And I can go on and on.
I don't want to tell you what these yields were many moons ago.
You'd throw up.
The answer is, much higher.
I'm on a monthly right now on the 10.
Oh my goodness gracious.
You don't want to know.
I'll leave it at that.
You don't want to know.
Let's hope it doesn't get there.
Anyway, we finished today on the 10-year at 4.872.
The high, wait, it's a closing high today, by the way, on this cycle.
It did hit intradate 4.887 on a,
October 6th, today was a closing high.
But interesting enough, another good broad market day.
How can that be?
Beats the heck out of me up next.
We'll describe.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investors egg.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge in Gary's personal happenings.
Just so you know, I went to Office Depot yesterday to get Post-it notes.
I ran out.
And I got there, and it was $29 for a pack of $18.
And just by, I also needed to get file folders.
You know, I got to, you know, for taxes, you know, put them in there and, you know, close them up.
So I decided to go on Amazon while I was there.
The Posted Notes were 15 bucks from 29.
The file folders were 40% lower in price, delivered the next day.
Wow.
No wonder Amazon does what they do.
Just Post-it notes.
I paid 15 bucks for something that was 29 bucks at Office Depot.
Nothing against Office Depot.
I'm sure they know.
Anyway, that happened.
And then I did this with you a few months back, and I'm going to mention again.
Company called Public Storage.
So I put some stuff in storage about a little less than two years ago.
Public storage, the company, the company, they do $4 billion a year in business.
The stock has gone from, I'm just going to $2,000.
2002, $28 bucks to $273
today. So what do they care about Gary?
So I get a 10 by 10 indoor. They charge me
$156. And they didn't tell me it was a starter rate.
But okay, about five months later,
I get a thing that it's going to $190.
So I didn't know that it was just a starter rate. So I called up
what is this? She said it was inflation.
I go $156 to $190.190. She said it was inflation.
Okay, no way I'm moving it again. I'm just going to leave 190.
They raise it to 240, four months later.
I told them I'm leaving.
Mr. Colbaum, I'll tell you what, we won't raise it.
I said I'm staying.
Three months later, I get a notice they're raising it again to 240.
I call her up.
You told me you're not raising it.
Oh, I should have said just for three months.
So, guess what?
I said, okay, because to move it, whatever.
About five months ago, they raised it to $2.90.
I call up.
Oh, is this inflation too?
They didn't have an answer.
But I've been in between so much going on between my father and mom,
$9, $2.90 going back and forth.
I said, screw it.
Don't worry.
Didn't even get a notice.
I got a bill.
the little auto pay bill, they raised it to 320.
Up 100% in less than two years for a storage unit.
I went to visit them.
I asked them, do you take advantage of all your customers?
Are you out to screw every one of your customers?
Does every one of them, am I so special that I get a 100% increase in less than two years?
Well, let me try to save it.
They couldn't.
I said, do you realize you now have lost me?
I'm moving.
And I got a place that is $75.
And it's a starter.
And it'll go up.
And I said to her, I go, do you realize, I called them?
I said, I would have stayed there for $2.90, not even move.
Nothing we can do.
How do these people stay in business?
Or is it just me?
Anyway, just letting you know public storage.
I'm not going to use the word scam or con.
I thought I was getting a storage for $156 and that'll be it.
Nowhere, anywhere, did it say start or rate?
Nowhere was I warned.
And I blame myself for not doing it a long time ago.
They don't deserve my business.
Now, I spoke to the other storage companies.
They said to raise prices is normal.
But not 100% in two years.
Now, I don't know if they were BSing me or not.
I don't know if that's the industry because I'm new to it.
But just letting you know what public storage did to me.
And they just lost me.
For 30 bucks a month, they lost $290 bucks a month.
Moor you're stupido, if you ask me.
On the market, the Dow was only up 13.
The S&P was only down 40 cents.
The NASDAQ was only down 34, though it was down.
The NASDAQ 100 was only down 50.
But it was a really good day again for the broad market two days in a row.
How do we know?
22 up 16 down on New York, 23 up 17 down on the NASDAQ.
How do we know?
My stuff screen.
Retail?
Mostly green.
Transports?
Mostly green.
Commodities?
Mostly green.
economically sensitive, mostly green.
Financials, mostly green, though Goldman Sachs was down five bucks today on their earnings.
Insurance, mostly green.
Stuff.
So broad market, and with the NASDAQ down 34, NASDAQ 100, down 50, the Russell 2000 on the day was up.
As soon as I get the number, 19.
About a percent.
It was better.
It was worse.
I think at one time today, the Dow was down 100.
NASDAQ was down like 80.
But it was better.
At one time today,
got to shut that down.
At one time today, the Dow was 34-147.
The Dow was up about 160.
So kind of sort it in between.
Kind of sort of in between.
The problem.
Yield spiked again today.
at what point
the problem, the worst areas
are the best areas
for the last two days, and I can
promise you, not a lot of leadership.
And what I mean by that is
Ralph Lauren
went up four today.
It's down 30
from the last eight weeks.
For example,
just an example.
And I can go on and on and on.
Pool ink.
They do pull supply.
It's down 50 bucks in the last eight weeks.
It's up five today.
And my job at this point is to see has really anything changes, anything turning up.
And I think there is.
It's just not big, gigantic, gargantuan, great earnings related big moves.
But broad market definitively better the last two days.
And that is a significant change in the market.
for the last two days.
We do not know duration.
We do not know price.
I'll get a better feel every night for it.
And of course, now we're an earning season.
By the way, also, the regional banks,
the lowly regional banks,
really attempting to try and have a little bit of turning up
from some ick.
Well, it's been ick for quite a while.
if the worst areas can turn up better.
Now, on the other end, there was some interesting news.
The semiconductors were much worse early.
The socks at one time, near the open today, hit 33-98, was down 108, only finished down 28.
Only finished down 28, which is pretty darn good.
You got that?
And luckily, well, that was only about 10 points at the close.
NVIDIA did finish down 21 today.
At one time was down 36.
Did try to rally up.
Did try to do better.
We're still down 21.
Broadcom was down 18 today.
Why?
The United States came out and said, you ain't selling crap to China.
restricting them.
So the semiconductors at a rough day, but way off the lows today.
Nvidia is just sitting in rangebound going back till June.
And I must say one thing I'm surprised is about Nvidia.
That first huge gap to the upside, they had the stock at $420.
And we're talking about a 400% earnings growth, 100% revenue growth.
The next quarter is still good too.
Stock really hasn't done anything in five months.
which is kind of weirding me out.
We'll see how it plays out.
That was a story on the open today,
but finish much better.
Up next, more on the markets.
And then I'm taking a nap.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
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Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
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This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
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like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.
than you expect. Elevate your earn
with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
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explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
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You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
Uh, a little late breaking news.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is saying that they have evidence that indicates that the barrage of rockets with hitched the hospital was fired by the terrorists in Gaza
and they are going to send out the intelligence to everybody to see.
It still won't help.
They'll still blame Israel.
But I want to see the intelligence also.
We move on.
Leadership in the market.
Where's leadership now?
I got some oils.
And when they say leadership, we just think new yearly highs, that's the relative strength.
Some oils, but not all.
And oil prices have been backing up again.
That's upside.
I got some, what else do I got for you?
Insurance stocks.
Don't ask me why.
But insurance stocks are strong.
You got some insurance.
And then you got a smattering of things.
You know, I love using the word smattering.
That means a couple of names from this area, a couple names from that area.
That's the story.
I'm looking right now, some oils.
In retail, I keep mentioning American Eagle Outfitters and Abercrombian Fitch.
By the way, Chicos, CHS, that's under $10.
No, that's a buyout.
I take it back.
So you got some of those, and you got some insurance stocks on the NASDAQ with as hardly anything.
Same.
Yesterday I mentioned Lulu Lemon.
Big move on getting into the S&P 500 and I'll state for the record, just like I told you,
happened to Airbnb and the stock came back down.
Lulu Lemon was down almost $4.00.
Not saying it's not going higher?
Am saying, be careful stocks making ridiculous moves on being added to an index,
even though being added to an index means that,
all these funds that mimic and mirror the S&P 500 have to get Lulu Lemon in there and gets a jolt.
But I repeat, does not usually last.
Now, it's earnings season.
As I have stated, in the morning, I'm up an hour earlier.
I'm usually working an hour later because I have to go through all the earnings.
Now this week, there's plenty, but the next two weeks, just an asinine, ass of 10 and
as 11 amount of earnings reports that I got to deal with.
And what we do is, even though we concentrate on the big names.
In other words, tomorrow, well, Procter & Gamble and Travelers are in the Dow, so not the
biggest deal because they low beta don't move, but travelers would insurance do it better.
We'll see what happens.
but Morgan Stanley, which is an important financial ASML holdings, an important semiconductor after the close.
Netflix and Tesla, got to worry about those.
But what we always do upon earnings is we put up this little screen, and it gives us the biggest percentage movers off of earnings, both up and down.
so we know exactly what's being reacted to, in what way it's being reacted to, and we can get a feel because let me be clear about earnings reactions.
The best reactions are good.
The worst reactions are bad.
Duh.
And most people don't know that.
You know what I hear often?
I see somebody on TV and say, well, ABC stock was down 18% on earnings.
They over did it.
It's an overreaction.
And then it's down another 15% two weeks later.
What we are looking for in the markets, we're looking for Taylor Swift.
It's a great analogy, great comparison.
Analogy means comparison, right? Just about?
What do we mean by that?
What's going on with Taylor Swift right now?
If she was a stock, what would that stock have done in the last year?
holy crap
sell out
stadiums after stadiums
people paying ridiculous
prices for the tickets
she's showing up on TV
as she goes to a football game because
she's dating a football player
she is the end all
be all right now and God you know what
I love her
I never met her
but she gave away
millions
to the truckers who move all her
stuff around.
She gave away like
bonuses of 100, 200 grand.
I love that.
That is, that is,
that's greatness.
That's what we're looking for in the market.
We are looking for companies with such
demand that people can't get
enough of the service
or the product
because they're doing something right.
they're doing something well.
That's what we mean.
That's where you'll get your biggest bang for your buck.
It's kind of like I'm worried.
That's why I'm a little worried about Tesla.
Delivery's less than expected.
And they keep lowering prices.
Remember, people don't lower prices because they're nice.
They lower prices because they think they have to.
And that eats into margins.
It eats into things.
So something to watch.
but Tesla has other things going on though
the batteries and the fact they are still selling a lot of cars
and they still have much better margins than everybody else
we'll see
but that's the story
that's what we look for
I give you the 1991 story
when Barron's put out a front page
don't buy Outback Steakhouse stock
because nobody's going to eat meat anymore
that's what was going on then
meanwhile on Southwest 17
street in Bocca Raton. I live down the block from this little strip shopping center.
On a Wednesday, it was 90 minutes to two hour waits to get into that outback.
And the stock went up tenfold.
That's what we're going to be looking for, and we will alert you too as we move forward.
Hey, kids, you'll have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
they'll feel better, you will feel better.
I promise Winston goes in for surgery in the morning.
Wish them well.
That's my doggy.
Peace out, all.
Take care.
Have a good night.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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