Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Deal making [07.23.2025]

Episode Date: July 23, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is July 23rd, 2025. I had a look a second time. 23 is my magic number. It is July 23rd. And as always, we have lots to talk about, lots of moving parts in the markets in the world. And we will cover every one of it seriously with no agenda, no ulterior motive, no bias. We'll just tell you what's working, what's not. We're in the midst of earning season. And there's a lot of jello moving on the plate, ladies and gentlemen.

And may I state for the record a lot of good moving on the plate. Simple as that right now. First off, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. And if you don't follow us on Twitter. I said Twitter. No, it's X. I got to get used to.

X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. So ladies and gentlemen, the big stories as I see it, and I'm thinking you know, is trade deals. Back in April, the president put on these massive tariffs, massive, that crushed, absolutely crushed the markets. and as you know he immediately went to pause because he was crashing the markets and during that time from April to now what we have received was threats empty threats threats

empty threats what do we mean by that oh we're going to put a 50% on on May 15th oh we're changing it to June 1st oh we'll change you get my point we give them credit

for recognizing what they were doing they had a hundred and forty five percent on China took it down I don't even know where everything is at this point in time so now we're at the point where deals are being cut. That's what we're told. And we're all well and good.

The latest being Japan. Now, you can go read up about it and get to decide for yourself. The next is the European Union. I think that's 26 countries. That's huge. The European Union is big as much. China. China supposedly is a little bit tougher but in the works. It is just my opinion, and I have stated this on several occasions, more than a few. I don't think the markets are

going up because of trade deals. I believe markets are going up because getting rid of tariffs gets the president out of the way. What have we told you? If we were president, we would lower taxes, less regulations, get the hell out of the way. But no,

all these tariffs. And what the president is now done is taking all these tariffs down. I think we're going to be running 10% on everybody or 15%. What you need to know on 10% or 15%, it's a fly on an elephant's butt, that's number one.

number two is there's exemptions up the wazoo and what that means is oh auto parts no no tariffs on auto parts apple no no tariffs on apple and you think apple's big and then there's the workarounds you know the workaround is so I'm Walmart I get a crap load of stuff

at this place and now I got to pay a 10% but I go to the country and say, hey, I'm Walmart. I'm Walmart. Do you know how much we buy from you? A crap load. So let's negotiate it. Let's work on it.

Let's figure it out. And that's how you work around that stuff. So I'm a big believer. The market's now up for the year. I'm a big believer that we would have never had the bare market. We would have never had the crash, if not for the tariffs. I think we would have had a correction, but I believe it would have been on the nominal side. And the first leg down was all the uncertainty yapping away every day about, guess what?

Tariffs and tariffs and tariffs. Now, you do know I've also stated for the record that my worry is him changing his mind and this, that, and the other thing. Well, again, I am in hopes, in hopes that they have figured out what happened and how bad things were. and that he can talk blue in the face the president that tariffs are paid by others, but it's not true. It's paid by us. Though, as I said yesterday, remember what I said yesterday, they can work. If you are getting eggplant from Mexico, but Mexico is charging charging less. than us. We're going to tend to get it there, but if we put a tariff on it, it's going to cost more to bring that in. Thus, we may just produce it here, though it's still a higher cost. It would still be a higher cost here. But back on track, I'm a big believer that this market would have never been gone into a bare phase.

Never crashed. Maybe a correction. And what we have done is we've gone back to square one. That's number one. And more. And why more? Because, number one, yields have been stable. They've been hanging around the same area, and stability is not a bad thing.

Number two is oil prices have been stable. Number three is the American people. Hard work, ingenuity, talent, sweat, toil, medical breakthroughs, technological advancements, a capitalist system where we're all trying to do better for ourselves and our families. And that's what's going on here. That's my story. Will the president go back to big tariffs again? I hope not.

I hope not. But I am 100% sure the markets are working off of the tariffs going away from where they were.

And in case you don't know, if you ever go back to that poster on Liberation Day, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. it was a nightmare so the announcement of Japan the potential for the European Union and guess a what Dow up 500 today

S&P up 5049 NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 labored a little bit up 127 and 98 so we'll call it about a 1.1.1% gain for the Dow, S&P about 8 tenths, NASDAQ about six-tenths, NASDAQ 100, about 4-tenths of a percent to the upside.

Advanced declines, pretty good, up-down volume, pretty good. The energy complex Thimabob's very strong day, though a bunch got sold. into the there was some casualties on earnings and boy oh boy there's a lot of jello moving on the plate ladies ladies and gentlemen as far as earnings we got some big ones and after hours that will look over if if they come through i'm noticing googles down but not that much i'm noticing Tesla is kind of flat and whatever we find, we'll report. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs. needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals

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you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola. who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication, we deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

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attributes your business loan may be issued by on deck or celtic bank on deck does not lend in north dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval it's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and welcome once again to investors edge so in late breaking um um The White House is announcing the America's AI Action Plan, and I will tell you in after-hours, Broadcom, NVIDIA,

Taiwan semi are all up a couple of percent. I think Broadcom's up about almost 3%. Nvidia in after-hours, about 1%. Taiwan's not that much anyway a good little bump in after hours for the semis what they're saying is

they want to export American AI will partner with industry to deliver secure full stack AI export packages including hardware models software applications and standards enabling innovation and adoption upholding free speech and frontier models I don't know what the hell that means

but I got to tell you something not on everything but a lot. Take away the tariffs, which I am completely against. A lot of things the president is doing on business. I dig. I dig front and center.

You didn't see anything like this under Biden. Never. Biden? Business? The only business he liked is the one where he benefited, though Trump is doing a little bit of that too. But I am pleased that a lot of this is front and center. And by the way, in the aftermarket, a bump up and we'll see what happens overnight. But strong day today.

In the Dow, this caterpillar-type industrial trade on horrible earnings and sales, they better recover up 10 at 65 Dow points. Boeing. Supposedly Japan's going to buy some Boeing jets, up five. American Express bounces after getting trashed. Goldman was up 17 today. Looks like it wants to break out again. J.P. Morgan may look like it want to break a breaks out again. Even United Health was up seven and that stock's been trashed. And that's that. A little update on aftermarket, if I can find it, because Tesla is one of those high beta names. So they reported earnings. And I got to see if I'm correct on this. 40 versus 52 last year. They met estimates. 40 versus 52. So earnings were down 12 cents from 52, down over 20%.

Sales were, let's see, 22.5 billion less than estimates and down from 25.5 billion. So sales and earnings down for Tesla, but the stock is up in after hours. Let's see how much. I got it up three bucks. which is small, but that can change.

You know, they're going to do a conference call, and they're going to talk it up left and right. But boy, oh, boy, for the record, they're going to have to re-accelerate earnings and sales or else. What else today? Do I even have to talk about what didn't work? I mean, there were stocks that were down. I know Fair Isaac was down $22.

bucks. I saw that. But there was some pretty darn good movers today. Japan and Japanese stocks benefited from whatever the deal is. And I can tell you, Toyota Motor was up 23 to 193. And the Japanese banks had a nice little move today also. I have yet to read into the deal. And I can, I can, I got to tell you what was weird was the guy who ran Japan stepped down. I don't know what the hell that means. But anyway, I don't have much complaint. I will tell you Bitcoin was down, gold was down, even though the dollar was down a little bit. Small and midcaps had a decent day today.

They're benefiting from better broad market. As I said, strength in the banks and financials. Oil prices were hardly up, but the OIH was up $13 to $250. Now, the other oil ETFs weren't nearly as much, and that was an outcome of, let's see what I can find for you in the oil patch. How about Baker Hughes was up almost 12% today on their earnings? And that's part of the OIH. Halliburton was up 3%. Oh, they've been in bear market

Schlumberger 3%. So good day for that. So all I can tell you, on April 22nd, the market confirmed a higher low and what we call and set on this show a follow-through day, a confirmation day,

and I have to tell you, the big indices have given no trouble since. Seriously. Have given no trouble since. I think there was one scare day since April 22nd. Towards the end of May, there was like one scare day. But the big indices have not broken once. The 21-day moving average on the SPY, on the Q-K-Y, on the Q-K. QQ, not finish below the 21 day. Screw the 50 day, which is more important. That's the real big one.

So just let you know, that be the story. And if anything changes, you know you're going to hear it from us. What else today? China's better, but still it's getting there. And as I said earlier, the energy slash construction slash all this talk of AI buildout slash those stocks were very strong today out of the get-go though some did pull in pretty hard but overall what can I tell you there's going to be a lot more earnings to come we have no idea what anybody's going to say

we have no idea how the market's going to react. I saw some today where estimates were missed and the stocks went up. I saw some today where estimates or earnings were strong and went down. Welcome to my world. And as I go through, I see IBM reported down 14 bucks in the aftermarket. That's not a good one. And that's in the Dow, by the way. 6-1 to 6 and 24, that's down about 90 Dow points for tomorrow morning.

And of course, all that can change into tomorrow. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. This is the one that only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.

Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches, and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, on deck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast.

Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, On-Dec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. We're listening to... America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Thanks for being with us today. I am furiously

trying to keep up with the earnings reactions after the close. But again, the big story today is they're cutting deals and they're getting rid of the freaking tariffs. And when I say getting rid of, we're told that they're going to be keeping 10 or 15

on everything. But I repeat workarounds, exemptions up the wazoo. Now they're telling us, oh, look at all this money into the treasury. They're tax hikes on businesses here and potentially the consumer. That's all. And they can talk blue in the face and lie to us. We know better.

But as we repeated, by definition, that is a tabernation. that is a tariff but they can be worked out and worked around small businesses have a tougher time doing that but the big ones can very much negotiate a lot

very much and we'll just see how it plays out again I have to repeat let's just hope let's just hope we don't have to revisit April again. I'm thinking they've learned their lesson.

They don't want markets to crash. You've got a midterm election next year. And the Democrats, that Marxist party is just handing it to them. As bad as I think the Republicans are, that Marxist party just keeps handing it to the Republican Party. It's amazing to watch. It's amazing to watch. And do you know where I bring this up? There is something called the Young Democrats of America. This is not a little campus group. It is the youth wing of the Democrat Party.

the potential next generation of elected officials and political operatives. The young Democrats today, let me put it best, and I'm amazed I even have to bring it up. Not North Korea or Syria where they're killing the Druze, and the head of Syria killed his own people with mustard gas. not the Sudan or Iran not Haiti not China and read up what they've done with the Uyghurs there not Venezuela

not Cuba not the Taliban that have now put the women in Afghanistan back into the dark ages not Hamas but they came out today Israel's committing genocide. No mention of any of these other places and terrorists Israel. And they think that's going to get them places. Just remember, this is not about Israel. It's about democracy.

They hate a miracle also. They're insane. It's about control. troll freakism, if you have freedom and the ability to be whatever you want to be and have upward mobility based on your hard work and smarts, you're their enemy. If you're successful and wealthy, you're their enemy. That's why they hate Israel. As I have told you, Israel, this magnificent. sliver of land up against the sea with enemies to the north, east, and south. Israel has become this magnificent country of people that have created unbelievable amount of startup businesses and technology and medicine. drive the highways of Israel, hotels, grade A buildings.

At the top of the buildings, you see all the big companies of the world. What they do down in Gaza? They let the prick steal all the fricking money and destroy the place. Israel left in 2005. But we keep hearing Israel apartheid, occupying. They left in 05. The lies continue. Why is this country so great in spite of what they're doing in D.C.?

Because I'm reading stories of people that came from nowhere. Homeless to become wealthy and successful because they applied themselves in this country. story after story I read about on a daily basis. You can't do that in other countries. They kick you in the nuts. So just letting you know the Marxist Party's young Democrats, the young ones are also insane, unbelievable.

It's just unfreaking believable. I had to bring that up because for me, that stuck out like a sore thumb. And you know where they get their stupid from? The people that are highlighted in the party. Morons like Bernie Sanders, who's kissing the arse of this guy running from mayor in New York City, even though this guy hates Israel, hates Jews, had no problem, doesn't want to put down the way,

words, globalize the Intifada, which is the death of Jews, wants an interview, seriously, no private property, no billionaires, which is code for no millionaires. Government run this, that, and the other thing. The Republicans are terrible. The Marxist party is making them look like a tiptoe through the tulips, and they're making it so damn easy with how stupid they are and the people that they highlight. That's a little of my take. Little update on big earnings in the aftermarket. IBM closed at 282. I got it at 267. Tesla closed it 330 and change, 331. Not even moving. Google closed that. Close that.

190 and change, 187 and change. Chipotle, closed at 50, almost 53, under 48. I could have told you that. I go to Chipotle. I get the double chicken with the corn and the not hot tomato stuff with brown. And when I go there, I speak to them and they tell me at least a couple of ones I go to. not very busy anyway

Chappote lays down in the aftermarket also and service now the stock just got trash recently closed at 9.56 it's 1016 up 50 bucks in the after market that's a good one and I think those are the important

ones after the close today a lot more in the next couple of weeks ladies and gentlemen hey up next anything else I can come up with I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions

you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CBS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic, stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache

every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point we can probably identify

something that we can change. Hear the full conversation plus some fascinating facts. about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours.

The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Cashflow crunch? OnDec's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

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your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota, all loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So, back on the markets. Gold down today, because I think it's the anti-market thing. You know, strong day, gold goes down, I guess. I think that's what happened. But gold, 13 weeks of range, looks like it wants. If it breaks above 317, it's out of here again. Broad market, better.

And what we mean by that is, how many months did we go where I said to you, 80% of the market is comatose and dead and avoid? Many. But they're all coming on. It has to do with the economy. me is in shape, interest rates are stable, oil prices are stable, and the deals that are getting done back away from the heavy-duty tariffs.

And in case you don't know, they've moved again the August 1st to I think August 15th or whatever, and Bessent came out and said, yeah, we can move that a little farther also. So big talk, not a lot going on. And if we end up with 10 or 15% tariffs on everybody, let me just state for the record, I think the jury will be out. How much of effect that will have? My answer is I don't know. But it would be a tax on here,

notwithstanding the workarounds, the exemptions, and the negotiations. and as I stated, that can be done. Now, we're being told that the Treasury is getting a bunch of money. They are. Why? In case you don't know, and it basically, Trump is actually telling you he's lied about everything on tariffs, that they pay for it.

When ABC company imports $10 million of something, at 15%, they're paying $1.5 million to the Treasury, and I believe it has to be done immediately. And by the way, here's the good news for deficit hawk, Gary, that goes right against the deficit. So that's good news. But let's hope that stays controlled. We don't want that out of control. We'll keep reporting on it. And I think I said the other day,

if President Trump has these tariffs and it pays down the deficits, the economy stays in shape, I will applaud the living hell out of him. But if he goes back to the big ones, look out. Look out. Few other things of note. With the S&P going into highs, more New Yearly. highs today. With the broad market doing better, more new yearly highs today. With something like

a caterpillar, with a 24% drop in earnings and a 10% drop in sales going into new yearly highs today. Again, for the record, these companies had better have earnings recoveries because I will promise you right now, valuations are really up there. But expensive can easily get more expensive. Welcome to how markets work. And at the end of moves, greed is so up there, they'll pay any price for anything, and you're seeing it in some of the froth

and some of the speculation that is going on in the market right now in a lot of weird stuff. And I've been doing a deep dive a little bit more on nuclear and quantum computing. Some of these companies with $9 billion in market cap aren't going to have revenues for years. So it's almost the guarantee, since I can't guarantee, it is almost a guarantee

that in the meantime, there is going to come a point where they all crash. If nothing changes. we here will let you know. As of right now, it feels like they're still in play. It feels like there's still the noise. And we will not argue the point.

But markets, good day. And let me give you one more. The Dow, which is labored, is about to break out of a seven-month tree. trading range. It hit 45073 in December, 45054 in January. November, excuse me. No, 45054 in January. It's 4501010. And that is inclusive of United Health being 2,000 Dow points to the negative in the Dow. So the Dow looks about ready and what's doing it? The highest price name Goldman Sachs.

Another high price name. Caterpillar. Remember, it's all price there. A Goldman Sachs at $717 is about 17 times as more important to Verizon. that's at $42. Each dollar is six and a half points approximately. That's how it works, not percent. So some of the higher-priced ones are doing the trick.

Hey, that all said, you have a great evening and drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. and do not forget

no bias here, ladies and gentlemen. We only see policy. Have a great one. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

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