Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Defending Support

Episode Date: September 25, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Monday, September 25th, 2020.

We've got a great show for you tonight. As always, we want to thank you very much for being here. Before we dive into the show and the specifics and oil and rates and stocks and everything else that's we're going to share with you tonight. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get this show in your city, you can go to garyk.com. You can listen live or archive. We're live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern. Also on gary.com, you can follow Gary on Twitter by just pressing the button or on x now that

they call it. And you can also subscribe with Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox for free. You may also email Gary, ask him about his money management services, or join his premium service which is called conviction leaders with an s.com. That's convictionleaders.com. He updates members several times a day with what he's seeing in real time. And he gives just about daily webcasts and weekend webcast as well, where he breaks down the action in the market for you in great detail.

So you're never left asking almost, you know, could have what happened? If anything, it's like, oh, okay, you get to a certain flow where you can connect and like, oh, Gary's going to see this. and then bam, he says it. And we've had, you know, people email and comment and all that fun stuff about the fact that they like Gary walking and talking us through the charts and showing it to us. It's almost like a tutorial where, hey, this is what I'm looking at, oils, energy, you know, look at financial, semiconductors, whatever the case is. And then go stock by stock and show you support, show you resistance. So anyway, it's a great service, all available at convictionleaders.com.

Now, that being said, let's dive in. was a quiet, relatively quiet day today. And what does that mean? It means that the market is struggling for direction. You had a big sell-off last week and then after sell-offs, it's normal. It's perfectly normal to see the market pause, bounce a little bit, do what it has to do to just digest that move. I'm going to go through support levels for you in the major indices and I'm going to go through some other factors that are impacting markets, but I just want to be very clear the 10 year and then near the high of the day today at 4.548, which is it's above the October high from last year. And it's just something that is important because it's putting pressure on the stock market.

This year, if you, let me even step back further. The 10 year last year yields in the 10 year, that is, we're up a lot. And the US dollar, if you go on, any charting service type in UUP, it's an ETF that tracks a dollar, is up 10 weeks in a row. Literally in the last 10 weeks, this is now the 11th week if it ends up higher this week. The dollar and the 10-year folks last year were pretty much going straight up. What happened to the stock markets, specifically growth stocks and the NASDAQ 100, they were going down. Well, okay, what does that mean? Well, there's an inverse correlation there.

The yields and the dollar go up, stocks go down. Not always, but just for now, that correlation's in place. Well, most of last year. And then what happened this year? The dollar and the yield in the 10 years stopped going up, and they started going down. They digested. They pulled back. And then what happened to stocks?

Stocks took off. Specifically growth stocks, the NASDAQ 100 led the charge, just charging, led the way higher. Okay. What happened in the summertime? A few months ago. now 10 weeks in the dollar, dollars up 10 weeks in a row, you saw even a little bit before that, rates started creeping higher mid-year. And then as you got to June, July, August, now September, you have rates up a lot and you have the dollar up significantly.

So what does that mean for the headwinds, if you will? And the market is that now all of a sudden this matters and it's getting to the point where it matters a lot. Now, the stock market hasn't crumbled like the way it did last year when rates were this high, but that doesn't mean it can't happen in the future. So that's what investors are worried about or concerned about is what is the impact going to be on both A, the economy and B, the market. So that's really, really important on that. So Garrett, I'm just going to read some thoughts there. So that's number one, 10-year closed near the highs of the day. oil prices finished off the lows.

And then Gary's number one line fundamentally is nothing good happens if oil prices and yields keep going higher. He wants to be very clear and quote him on that. Yields and oil prices, if they keep going up, it's going to choke the economy, it's going to choke the consumer. Remember, oil prices, energy in general, gasoline, energy, net gas prices, I just paid my electric bill at home. It was crazy high. and it serves as an indirect tax on both businesses and consumers because people pay for energy. You need it. It's simple.

I'm using energy right now, the internet, the technology, electricity to connect with you. And you're using electricity and internet or battery power. What energy in some way, shape, or form to listen. So energy is just an integral part of our economy of our lives and we need it and we pay for it. the higher energy goes, the less disposable income we have for other things. So those are the big messages from Gary. We're paying attention to the 10-year. We're seeing how the market reacts to it.

Today was a relatively quiet day in the market. That's the important, you know, high-level big picture. Clothes is just a little bit higher for the day. And it's nothing really to write home about. But if the yield in the 10-year keeps going higher, folks, and Gary's told you this before. If you see the dollar start shooting up and go higher, we've got to really pay attention to what the impact is going to be on the stock market. Because if the market rolls over, that's not going to be a good sign.

Last week, in fact, this whole month, September, it's a down month on Wall Street. This is the last full trading week of this month and this quarter. And then October, we start earning season again. and then we get into that whole fun routine. But it's not all, you know, there are some good, there's good news out there. Seasonality is one of them. We're entering a relatively strong period for the market. Q4 tends to be an up year.

Now, not every Q4 is an up quarter, but for the most part, fourth quarter tends to be a positive year on Wall Street. Or for positive quarter, excuse me, in a good end to the year on Wall Street. Second, the market itself. When it's down the SB 500 by 1% or more in both August and September, the last three times that's happened, it rallied sharply in October. It doesn't mean it's going to rally sharply this October. Just throwing it out there. Because, you know, seasonality, historical things in the market, it's good to have those as some kind of guidelines. But all of that is trumped by price action.

If the price starts going up, it's going up. The price goes down, it's going down. Seasonality and every other possible indicator you can think of takes a backseat to price. Price is primary in my world. Everything else is secondary. So what does all that mean for the market? It means the indices are down, the major indices and leaders are down. A lot of the indices, which I'll speak about later, broke below support last week.

the one index that's holding up near support is the NASDAQ-QQ. And you could see the low back in August was 354-71, and the low today was 355-93, and you're now at 359-ish in the QQQ. That's the big institutions, stepping in and defending support. For now, that doesn't mean we can't roll over tomorrow and undercut the lows. We definitely can. All it means is for now, we begin counting the days.

It's day one of a new. Okay. As long as today's low holds, it opens a door for what's known as a follow-through day. And that can happen any time, as soon as three, you know, three market days after the low, assuming today's low is defended and isn't undercut. If it's undercut, then you start counting the days again. So we're trying to get a new rally attempt going. And would it be confirmed as soon as, let's say, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday would be the earliest,

preferably day four to day seven. So Thursday to next maybe Tuesday or Wednesday-ish would be a better time frame. It could happen after that. And a follow-through day is just a big up day, up more than a percent and a half on heavier volume in the prior session. And it shows you the big institutions are stepping in to confirm that rally attempt. Now, most follow-through days fail in a weak environment. But every major bull market in history began with a fall.

through day for the most part. And that's how we focus in these follow through days. We let the market guide us. We don't make predictions or, you know, think about this is going to happen. That's going to happen 100% certainty. Nobody knows what's going to happen with 100% certainty. The beauty is you don't need to. What you need to do is put your ego at the door, what I recommend people do. You don't do anything, do whatever you want. What I do is just approach the market with tremendous amount, maximum humility and knowing anything is possible at any point in time, respecting risk at all times, and then stacking the odds of success in our favor because the idea is to make the best risk-adjusted decisions possible over and over and over again. If we can do that, we'll navigate

all the environments on Wall Street, the bullish periods, the bearish periods, and the sideways periods. Up next, I'll give you more areas of support and resistance, more stocks, more sectors. our hand. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal

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Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order, with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just doing.

joining us or miss any part of the show. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay. Gary's out today. If you miss any part of the show, you want to pause it or wind it fast forward. You can go to GaryK.com and do all that for free and on any, pretty much on any device that I know of. You can do it on any device. Listen to the show, pause it or wind it fast forward and all that fun stuff. So speaking about the major indices, it's the end of the month this week, end of the quarter this week. We've got the market trying to bounce from pretty heavy selling over the last several weeks, really the last two months. Since July, the market's been going sideways to lower. And now you're testing an important area of support. What does that mean? Well,

think of the market, you know, it ebbs and flows. The state of the market changes, just like our state changes. Sometimes we're hyper, sometimes we're calm, sometimes we're happy, elated, you know, enter any other emotion you want. Tired, you know, all that fun stuff. Your state changes. Okay. The market does as well. The good news is the market only has one of three directions it can go. Up down or sideways. So, and that changes depending on the time frame. Right now, for the year, we're up in most of the major indices. Well, the NASDAQ and the NFP are up. I want to focus on those two because I'll speak about those first and I'll talk about the other one second. And you're in a situation where the indices go through different

states, they ebb and they flow and resistance. Think of it like a ceiling in a room and support as a floor. So, for example, if you have a stock trading between 50 and 55 for six months, that's called a base, and then resistance would be 55, and support would be 50, just as a quick refresher. So eventually you'll break out above 55, you'll break down below 50. I mean, that's how the market can, that stock and that hypothetical example can start trending and start moving. It doesn't stay in a base forever. It doesn't stay between support and resistance forever. Support and resistance change depending on the market. And the trade, the natural trading ranges that unfold. The beauty with support and resistance is that it lets you be humble and listen

to the market. You're not setting price targets that arbitrarily you pick out of the sky and dictating your will on the market by telling the market, oh, you have to do this or you have to do that or it has to go up, it has to go down. No. The market, instead, it flips it. You're listening to the market and the market's going to do what it wants to do. And your job is just interpret what's happening. So the Dow, if you look at the DIA, I'll throw that one in there too for the S&P and the NASDAQ, has been trading sideways since July. 35670 was the high there. And the low in August was 340-90, 340-35. Today's low was 3.40, oh, sorry, 337-69 and you closed at 340 even.

Again, right near that August low of 340-35. That's how support works. The psychology behind it is the big institutions step in there and they're defending support. Not always, but for the most part. That's how it works. The S&P 500 has a trading range forming here. Support, which is the floor is 430301 from the August low. And resistance is 459-44.

the July high. Well, today's low, you undercut that 433 level. You went down as low as 42872, and then you're reversed. And you closed that 432, 23, just below that 433 level. Okay, so far so good. You're near support, but today's just day one of a new rally attempt. The one thing I would say is volume was relatively low today. So I do want to put that out there. Typically, you want to see the market rally on heavier volume. But it's doing its best to defend support. It did undercut support in the S&P 500. So just to be very clear there, it undercut it, right?

The Dow, 340 was support, and now it went as low as 337 today, so it undercut it, but it closed right near it, just below that 340, 35, it closed at 340 even. That's a DIA, it's the ETF that tracks the Dow. Okay, well, what about the NASDAQ 100? The NASDAQ 100 is the strongest of the indices. It did not break support. 38798 was the high back in July.

354.71 was the low in August. Well, guess what? The low today was 355.93, just above that 354.71 low. It's just how this works, folks. I don't make the rules. I'm just interpreting what we're seeing happen. here. So it bounced today. This institutional investors stepped in. They bought the market. They bought stock to defend support. So the NASDAQ 100 doesn't break below those lows from August.

Okay. What's next? If the market rolls over, the Q's that is, the NASDAQ 100, the QQQ, and undercuts that 354-71 level, then the market's going to break down below support. Outside of that, it's just a bounce. It's good that it bounced because the yield in the 10-year closed near the high of the day. And remember, let's rewind to 2022. The yield in the 10-year topped out in October of 2022. Okay, the stock market bottomed in October 22. Not a mistake. The yield in the 10-year drifted lower, for the most part, all the way up until May of this year, and then it started to go higher again. Okay, the stock market topped out in July. We now are above that high in October of 2022 for the 10-year yield.

The stock market's not below the October 22 low yet, but it's something that I'm watching closely because if this continues, eventually the markets can get under some service distribution. But for now, and all I deal with is the now. I trade in the now. I live in the now. So do all of us, right? If you're going to do something next Tuesday at 4 o'clock, you're going to do it next Tuesday at 4 o'clock. Guess what?

In the now, the present moment. Well, all right, what does that mean? Right now supports being defended in the NASDAQ 100. Plain and simple. End the story. That's it. Doesn't mean anything more. It doesn't mean anything less.

If we break down, probably going to go test that 200-day moving average, which is near 328. Or 82, so figure 329. if you want a round number. Until then, we're just range bound. The high here, I'm going to just use round numbers in the QQQ, 388 and 354. That's it.

So we bounced today. Now let's look at some of the stocks in the NASDAQ 100. The biggest one out there that I know of is Apple. AAPL. Same exact pattern as the NASDAQ 100. 198-23 was the high from July. and the low is 171.96 back in August. So 198-23 and 171-96.

Right now, we're at 176. And then what? It's defending support. The last few weeks, it's been trading in the low 170s, but it's above that 171-196 level. If Apple breaks down below that, it's probably going to drag the market lower, especially if we see other stocks do that.

but if not, we can back towards resistance, which I'll speak about that trading range, trading style in a little bit in a few minutes. Because there's different ways of trading. There's trending markets, there's sideways markets, and the ebb and flow. It evolves. So up next, we'll talk about that strategy.

Some more stocks, some more sectors. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investor's egg. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your

earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you go to GaryK.com, listen live, archive, rewind, fast forward, 100% at your convenience, all for free on any device you want on GaryK.com. If you want Gary's extra premium service to get an extra sense of what's happening in the market, go to convictionleaders.com. That's convictionleaders with an S. And you can subscribe there, take a free trial.

It's a great service. And Gary gives you, basically keeps his finger on the pose for you and lets you know, updates you several times throughout the day and gives you web, basically daily webcasts where he dives in deep, breaks down the market action for you and a whole lot more. And all of that is available on convictionleaders.com. So we were speaking about the market, speaking about the concept of support and resistance. It's more of an area than a zone. Think of it more of an art than.

an exact science. When I got started back in the 90s, I used to get really fixated on following the rules, and put that in air quotes, and say, oh, the market has to be above this or has to be below that, or, or, or, but it didn't break resistance, or a broke resistance, or a broke support. I can go on and on and on, but you don't want to hear all the crazy things I said to myself back then. Definitely not. And it would throw me off. What I've learned now about support and resistance. It's real simple. It's a zone. It's an area that needs to be defended. And yes, you have many, many, many times. In fact, more often than not, support gets undercut and then resistance shows up. And then it either undercuts it and then goes higher or resistance. It breaks

out above it and then rolls over. Breakouts fail, breakdowns fail. It's just part of the business. It's part of life. It's not an exact science to the penny. So think of it as the spirit of the law versus the letter of the law. If you're not familiar with that, you can Google that or asking a lawyer, they'll tell you much better than I can. But it's saying if you can't, you know, I think there's a famous example, but I don't want to get up on a tangent. The spirit of the law, not the letter of the law. Okay. So support is being defended right now in the NASDAQ 100 and it's trying to be defended in the S&P and the Dow.

You briefly broke below it. And some of the indices, some of them broke down much sharper, which I want to speak about as well. The Russell 2000. The high in July was 19875. IWM is the ETF that tracks the Russell 2000. And that was resistance. Support was 181.61, which was the low in August. You bounced back to 191.

You hit the 50-day moving average in the Russell. and then you fell, you traded near support for a little bit in mid-September, and then you sliced below it last week. Okay, you're now at 177-49, and support was 181, 61. You definitively broke down below support. Okay, watch for it to rally. Today was just day one of a rally attempt. This already broke below support.

This is 2,000 stocks, by the way. I read something over the weekend. The market is so concentrated. I think the top five stocks make up 20. 25% of the S&P 500. If you take out the performance of the top 10 stocks that are basically big cap tech and or AI-related stocks, one of those two buckets, the market's flat for the year, if not down a little bit. That's really, really powerful.

It shows you how concentrated the market is right now. Leadership is virtually non-existent. Now, there are stocks that are leading. don't get me wrong. Energy stocks are doing well. There's some tech stocks that are doing well. But I enlarge this rally, it's very, very thin. And Gary's done a great job. I mean, excellent job, pointing that out to you. And updating you literally every single day with what he sees happening on the show. So the Russell broke below support. The mid-cap, S&P4, That's the M-D-Y, the E-TF that tracks that.

Resistance there was 578 back in July. The low in August was 466.6.5. 466.25. You broke below that level last week, which was roughly near the 200-day moving average. So now the mid-caps, so this is the 400 mid-cap stocks, are below support. And the Russell 2000, below support. So we're beginning to see the market, it could be in the stages of just breaking down. Why am I mentioning this?

Because if the market decides to roll over in October and then November and December, the writing is on the wall. The evidence is there. If, now, on the other hand, if the bulls show up and defend support and we have a strong end of the year rally here, that'd be a very, very bullish sign. And historically, at least, the last three times the market, the S&P has been down, 1% or more in both August and September, October is a very strong month. But we take it one day at a time and we focus on price.

So we spoke about Apple near support, spoke about the Russell, the IWM, the midcaps, MDI, D-Y, the Dow, DIA, the S&P-500, SPY, the QQQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, all of these are important indices because that's how you can you know you call the market or what is the market the market's a compilation of all these indices and all of them are just made up of stocks that are in the index index that's it so nassadk you've got 100 stocks there the s and b you got 500 so on and so forth so all right let's talk about some sectors and these are important sectors because these sectors some of them have been leading some of them have been lagging but it's really important to understand that okay what's happening beneath the surface. So first off, let's look at the semiconductor stocks. SMH is an ETF that tracks the semiconductors. That's trading near support. One I guess resistance support. I'll give you the same theme for the whole show. 161 was the high back in July. The low in August was 143. You broke below that last week. You're now at 142.96, I mean, 143.35. So you're right below, maybe 40 cents or low, below that area of support.

If the SMH, the semiconductors can break back above that 143-35, that August low, and get back above the 50-day moving average, which is near 152, and then get back above the September high of 157, and then break out above 161, that all those events will become very bullish. But there's a lot that needs to happen until we get there. Right now, it's just defending support. It's doing its best defense support. You're slightly below support.

14335 was a level. You're now 142.96. But we'll see what happens. The week is still early, right? That's the semiconductors. Let's see. What else do I want to show you here? The energy stocks, we can do that one.

So XLE, ETF that tracks energy stocks, had a nice rally, probably from June-ish. I'd say up until the high in the mid-September and just pull back into its 50-day moving average. The OIH, same thing. Very nice rally from May all the way up until September's high of 364 and then pull back into the 15 is now bouncing. The XOP, which is another ETF that tracks oil stocks, big cup and handle forming there, had a very nice rally from May, June, all the way up until September, now forming a handle. and it's pulling into the 15-8 moving average.

All right, not the end of the world. Financials. Same thing. Big cup, big handle. Resistance is 3571, which was a high back in July. The low in August was 3357. Right now you're at 3375. The low today was 3348.

You did undercut an intradate, but on a closing basis, it closed above that 3357 low. All right, you're right near it. So the financials are doing their best in defense support. Apple doing its best to defend support, right? The semiconductors near support. The NASDAQ 100 near support. The S&P 500 near support.

The Dow near support. So this is big. Really, really, really big. Not all the areas are near support. Some have broken down much worse, like the transportation stocks, for example, IYT. You had 267 was the high in July. The low in August more or less was around 243. You're now at 235.

Undercut that low, did it on volume, and it's not pretty action. In fact, you're all the way down to the 200-day moving average there. The biotech stocks, you can look at the XBI, just freefall. You want to stay away from those areas, right? Healthcare stocks, XLV, also downward sloping. So you just want to be careful. Pick your spots, take your time, understand sometimes support can be negated, undercut, and then rallies back above it. But just take it one day at a time.

So up next, we'll talk some more stocks and more sectors. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero chafed thanks to four times more stretch than compete. brands and their innovative horizontal

quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John.

Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. InVestors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com.

Rewind, fast forward, listen live or archive. We spoke about the fact that support is being tested, big time. And not just the NASDAQ-100, the S&P-500, the SPY, but in many sectors, under the surface. And I'll go through and I'll keep talking about it because it's important. The SLX steel. SLX, ETF, the track steel. High in July was 71-42, the low-1-42, the low-end, August was 6441. We closed it 6506 today. And the low was 6439. Now, normally it doesn't come

this close. This is within, I mean, a few cents, three cents, two cents, 6441, 6439. Normally that's not the case, two cents away. But it's the spirit of the law. Where did you close today? You closed above support. Okay, near it, you undercut it intradate, where we just came really close to you undercut it. by a few pennies, but it's defended for now. That's it. Real simple. It was light volume today, so we'll take it one day at a time. Just one day at a time. Take your time, right? So what else do we have to show you? Financials we spoke about the KRE, which are the regional banks just not not happening. Remember, some areas are leading. Some areas are lagging. The regional banks still lacking since March. You had the big sell off in March. You fell even more in May. You tried the

bottom. You rallied up a little bit in June and July. And then you rolled over in August. September. So an area I would avoid for now. So the financials we spoke about let's see here what else I want to show you the utility stocks XLU interest rates sensitive area of the market interest rates are up. Okay, this guy's gone nowhere. Pretty much all year. He's down on the year. Let me double check to make sure I'm right. There it is XLU and yeah, he's down 10% for the year. Not pretty. I can actually sort this for you. Probably going to ask, hey, Adam, what are the strongest areas? I'll give them to you right now. So, semiconductors,

SMH, led by AI type stocks, QQQ, NASDAQ, SDAQ, second place. The housing stocks, these are the areas that have been working this year, the leading areas, XHB. It's up about 26% for the year. But housing stocks have been iffy recently. because of all this stuff from the interest rates. And they undercut support. The high back there was 8513 in July. The low in August was 7778. You're now at 76-78.

But if we get back above that 77-78 level, we can see those housing stocks bounce, especially if the yield in the 10-year starts, excuse me, coming down. Next, the consumer discretionary stocks, X-L-Y. Take a look at these charts, folks. to take, I mean, just follow along. I'm taking the time to show them to you because it's really important to help train your eye. Train your eye, excuse me.

So you can see what the markets, you know, I was like to say the market's speaking and ask, are you listening? You can see what the market's showing us. The high in July was 17780 in the XLY. The low in August was 160, 93. Today you undercut that. You went as low as 15987. Guess what? You closed at 160, 192.

Again, 160, 93. was a low in August. You closed today at 161.92 after undercutting it. Support was defended. Big, big, big support day today. Now, whether it has legs or continues higher, who knows, you don't need to know. Just take your time. All we're doing now is waiting for a big thunderous fall through day to show up. Any time after Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, early next week, would be great, followed by more rallying, more breakouts. What are some stocks that broke out? So it's really been quiet today.

There are a few of them, I mean a few stocks that caught my attention today. One is Williams-Sonoma, ticker symbol W-S-M-M-M-M-M-M-Ry. Big rally today, broke out of a nice little trading range here, did it on some very heavy volume. average volume here is about a million shares today you had about 5.3 million shares. Let's pause for a second. Spoke about resistance earlier in the show. Here it's 146 and a quarter, 146-29-ish, and this goes back a long time. Let's see here.

It goes back to February of this year and it goes really back. The last time you were trading in the mid-150s was September. of last year. You cleared resistance, 146 and a quarter, of a big one-year base. Every time it got to 146, it would fall. It did it again just in August. It got as high as 146-29 fell. And it tried the last few weeks, tightened up a little bit. And then what happened? Today, out of nowhere, so to speak, you had what, one, two, three, four, five weeks where it went dead tight. And then today, explosive rally up 11.62%. Volume was up over 400% somewhere in that range.

We're right near there. Average volume is a million shares today. You could do the math on the exact number of 100% change basis, but you had thunderous volume. And like Gary says, it wasn't Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying. It's the big institutions. That sticks out to me. Why is a stock like this, that's, by the way,

had a nice rally since May. sits tight for four or five weeks. The market's going down, mind you, and this thing turns around and just shoots higher. And closes near the high of the range. Doing that. Before the market broke out, it's a retail home furnishing company. You know, Williamson, I mean, they're all over the place.

That catches my attention, the market speaking. This thing is breaking out. All right, it broke above resistance. Now, it doesn't mean it has to go, it closed at 156 and 28 today. It doesn't mean it has to go to 200 or 500 or 1,000. All it means is for now, something has changed. Think of a game of Tug of War.

You played as a kid or you watch kids play it. The Bulls and the Bears are constantly playing the game of Tug of War. Constantly. Daily basis, hourly basis, weekly basis, monthly basis, of course. Okay. The difference between a kid's game of Tug of War and this business is that this never ends. It's an infinite game. Tomorrow's another day, another game of tug of war.

But for now, all we can do is stack the odds of success in our favor, take high probability trades. That's it. When you see a breakout on monstrous volume, that tells you the big institutions are in there buying. So, in closing, the market's doing its best to defend support. We had a big sell-off the last few weeks. Let's see if it can bounce. Let's see where we go from here.

It's just one day. As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. That's all the time we have for today. This is a one and only Investor's Edge. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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