Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - DEFENSE? [04.25.2024]
Episode Date: April 25, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Thursday, April 25th, 2004.
And O, we've got lots to cover.
today. It's been one of those days where a lot's going on. And I must tell you, regardless
what we tell you about what happened today, after the close, which comes up in a couple of
minutes, we'll have Microsoft and Google. Microsoft is the biggest waiting in the NASDAQ 100.
By the way, it was down 20 bucks early in the day and finished down around $9. I have no clue why.
We'll have Capital One, Intel, KLA 10 Corps,
Skechers, Scott's, a bunch of names.
And of course, yesterday, while we were doing the show,
there was one big, gigantic blow-up in Meta,
which was the old Facebook,
and I still do not know why they continue to call it.
They should just go back to calling it Facebook.
But if I was to tell you the indices were down markedly today, a pretty darn good number,
but tell you it was actually a good day.
I don't want to ask, would you believe me?
I would just say to you, you should believe me.
You see, you can have real, we're going right into markets, by the way, then I'll
introduce ourselves in a little bit. You can have bad days in the market, but you could have
days where they were much, much worse. And what we call those days, we call them defense days.
It's the days where we're down so much because whatever reason, and they just finish up well,
let me give you the example.
And of course, as we said, Microsoft and Google are going to report soon.
For starters, Facebook, Meta, closed down $52 today at $440.
Meta at one time today hit a low of 414.
So it was actually about, I don't know.
know, $27 off the lows, but still down a lot. It hit the lows actually in the first five minutes
of the day, and I'm actually not sure if it actually hit the 414. Yeah, maybe on an initial, real quick
initial drop. It did that. And what that did was hurt the market. And we walked in, and for the record,
Today, at one time, the NASDAQ was 15,343, the NASDAQ.
But closed at 15-6-1-1, still down 100.
That means we were down 366 NASDAQ points and only finished down 100.
257, 268, yeah, 368.
That's huge to come off that floor.
The NASDAQ 100 hit 17172 and closed at 17433.
It was down 353 and only finished down, well, I got about 96.
At the close.
The Dow today, if I told you, finished down 375 whopping points, that's a bad day.
But the Dow at one time today hit 37754.
It was down over 700 points.
So we're going to call it a defense day as we go into,
tomorrow with Google and Microsoft.
And we have seen gaps to the downside now of
Facebook, Netflix.
Little gap to the upside on Tesla.
And now we'll get Google and Microsoft
and see what the market has to give.
And guess what?
We're now getting the opposite.
Microsoft's up $21 in the aftermarket, 12 for the day.
After being, I don't know why it was down 20 early.
And by the way, this can move.
Google in the aftermarket, I've got it, was down three today.
It's up 14 in the aftermarket.
So as bad as it was early today on the open,
it'll possibly as good it will be tomorrow,
on the open for technology because big tech moves the markets in crazed ways.
In fact, as I speak now, the NASDAQ 100 is actually up for the day with these two stocks
because what they will do is they will move markets.
you will have some semis up you'll just have tech up
Amazon has not reported
after the close today
they got it up seven bucks in the aftermarket
after being down almost four today
so the insane asylum of mega caps
giveth take it away
giveeth, taketh away, and giveth again in the aftermarket.
I don't have the exact numbers, by the way, as we speak.
Google in particular is up 17 in the aftermarket.
That's 11% for a gargantuan company.
So we came here to report to you, what a crappy day today, but a great defense day.
and the NASDAQ will be strong tomorrow morning.
The Dow's up a little bit in the aftermarket.
And there's your story.
And there it is.
These mega caps are so huge.
If Microsoft and Google Alphabet would have gapped down,
it would have been a whole another story.
So two stocks changing the playing field
from one stock that changed the playing field today.
Now we got others in the aftermarket
that are coming out.
I'll let you know when that occurs.
But those are the two big matzo balls
that reported, and again, I don't have the numbers just yet.
Microsoft beat, you know, I do.
Microsoft beat by a little.
Google beat pretty decently.
I'll give it that.
Intel, missed by a mile.
But Intel doesn't matter anymore.
They're not what they used to be.
Years ago, if Intel reported bad, the market got trounced.
Intel's getting whacked in the aftermarket.
Market couldn't care less.
So there you go.
This is how we start the show.
A crappy day early.
A good defense, even though down decently,
and a couple of stocks moving the needle in the aftermarket.
And I got Western Digital down seven bucks also,
and nobody cares.
about that one either. It's all about, what do they say, ladies and gentlemen? It's all about the size.
Amazingly, $31 move in Microsoft from the low today to what the aftermarket is right now.
I want you to think about that, a $31 move on a Microsoft, which is the equivalent of $240 billion.
No, we're not making that up.
Welcome to our world.
We'll see how the night goes.
We'll see what they have to say.
I'm noticing some things in the aftermarket.
Oh, they're talking AI.
So that means Nvidia is up $16 in the aftermarket also.
Happy days.
Artificial intelligence.
So there you have it.
We didn't know what we were going to say because we did not know what the aftermarket would be.
And frankly, we still don't know how it's going to play out
overnight, but a really good move in Google and Microsoft.
Google will open up at an all-time high.
Microsoft shall not.
Microsoft will open in the middle of, let's call it,
three or four months range, but definitely better,
as they were just scorching that sucker today.
Okay.
Up next, the introduction.
and whatever else.
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I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata.
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At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI,
coming up with quantum, or coming up with just,
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It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM
because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
Building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things
that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will mature.
Right?
Yeah.
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with Quantum?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum.
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items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORA-Ida, Silk, Capri-Sung, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer
in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings
on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick-up or delivery.
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All right.
Back on markets.
I don't know what to tell you.
We're an earning season.
And it's all over the map.
Just by the aftermarket yesterday and today,
you're getting a lot of index movement by just a few names because they are so big to the indices.
Let me just give you an example of something here.
I am going to Google the words, NASDAQ, 100 makeup.
And we have a problem with this, but they're never going to change it.
They've changed it a little bit recently because it really got bad overweighted.
But for instance, Microsoft, Apple,
NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Google.
That's the top seven names.
One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, right?
They are 5.4, 10, 15, 20, 26, 33, 34, 43, 43%,
37% seven names are 43% of the NASDAQ 100, well, 93 names are 57%.
That's so insane.
What if those seven names go by the wayside?
And we know Apple's been weak.
Tesla's been very weak.
It's had a better couple of days, though, Tesla on crappy earnings and sales.
some promises out of what's his face.
Netflix is also 2%.
Costco's 2%.
So that's why they move so crazy
and has so much influence.
We believe that it's too much,
but they don't care what we believe,
and away they go.
And that's why you're getting 1% and 2% moves in hours
and in after markets of these things.
But hey, our job is just to stay on top of them
and see what's best and see how it goes.
So the good news is a crappy open today.
All day to day, I was calling it defense.
Even though we still finish down 375 and 100,
tomorrow will open up with some offense.
And I gather tech will open pretty good tomorrow in sympathy off of it.
Microsoft is, just so you know,
is only up 2% in change with the aftermarket.
today after being down but up 18 from the close and Google now I have it up 17 today about 10% on the day after being
down and with the influence Amazon's on the move and a few other AI things going on so that's basically
the story and that's terrific we like markets going up we like things that we can do we hate bare markets
Actually, I take that back.
We actually like bare markets because they set the stage for new bull markets.
But overall, we'd rather have markets go up.
That's the fun part.
Sitting around doing nothing is not the fun part.
So we'll see what happens.
I also got KLA 10-Corps reported.
Oh, let's see how bad these numbers are because it's up in the aftermarket.
Yeah, earnings were down single digits.
the stock is up actually only up three bucks in the aftermarket
but it was down 15 today
I think
I don't know what you know what
they're showing a big spread on it so I actually cannot tell
what it's doing in the aftermarket right now
so we're going to hold off on KLA 10 core
but good open tomorrow
with mega cap names
and we'll see what comes of it
we've owned Microsoft in the past
and
boy oh boy the charts
you know what they're going to look like tomorrow
like a three-year-old
with a crayon
like a three-year-old with a crayon
scribbling
on a piece of paper
all over the map as they say
again we'll come into tomorrow and see how it goes
actually see how they finish it up
overall
we already did
our scans of the day. There's been a lot of deterioration. Major averages are trading below the 50-day
moving average. Another not a great advance decline day, even though we call it a defense day today.
But let's see how the week ends up. I think tomorrow will be of import and we'll see what comes
of it, which takes me next to gold. When you have a chance,
GLD. We just want you to notice it held so far. Doesn't mean it doesn't break it tomorrow,
the 21-day moving average. And up next, we'll go through that and what we mean by it.
I'm Gary. This is the one-only investors edge.
Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision
for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum,
or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.
It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
Building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will mature.
Right?
Yeah.
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with Conton?
By 2029, we'll build the first Volt-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large.
large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing,
visit IBM.com slash quantum.
Amazon Hub delivery wants to partner with your business.
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You and your team will deliver Amazon packages
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on a schedule that works for you,
and you'll be paid for every package you deliver.
Getting started is easy.
There's no delivery experience required,
no long-term contracts, and you receive weekly direct deposits.
Earn more.
Gain exposure for your business.
Apply today at Amazon.com slash hub delivery.
That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.
Know a local business that would make a great partner,
a local coffee shop owner, florist, automotive shop, dry cleaner, you name it.
Refer a business today and earn $500 when they successfully join the program.
Visit Amazon.com slash hub delivery to learn more,
or refer a partner.
That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.
Now looking for hub partners in your area.
Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
It's stockup savings time now through March 31st.
Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points.
Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor,
ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin.
Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings.
Stack up those rewards to save even more.
Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery.
Restrictions apply.
See website for full terms and conditions.
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Okay.
So we're in gold.
We're not in the gold miners, personally, but something may have changed today on the gold miners.
See, the gold miners are ETFs that contain the stocks.
And the biggest institutional name, Newmont mining, has been acting terribly for a very long time.
And on a relative base, I mean, it's still way down.
From June to 22, it's down from 86 and it's now 43.
It's down 50%.
but really good reaction to earnings today.
And breaking above, I'm going to call it about eight months of resistance.
If Newmont mining gets going, I gather the gold miners' ETF, the GDX, you may want to look at it.
The junior gold miners, I guess they're smaller ones, GDXJ, but GDX is the big.
and that's the one we would always recommend if we were doing.
So just letting you know the gold miners also have to mention on not the good side,
the 10-year yield 4.706 today, 4.706 and finished above another little stair step.
So let me do some splaining.
Every tick up and yields the cost of capital to you, all the way up to food chain to every major corporation goes up.
When they float bonds, they pay more out.
When the government has to float bonds, they have to pay more.
Thus, we're paying over a trillion a year.
and just interest on the debt the criminals in Washington, D.C.
have created another stair step today.
What else it does?
Just, I hate talking about them, but they actually do matter a little bit, are central bankers.
They are out, and by the way, we would say it to their face.
And we feel like we always have to say we would say it to their face, because when you're putting
somebody down at their job, you want to be up front, but they have been wrong on everything.
We started highlighting Jay Powell lowering rates because the market was going down, which is
always the wrong thing to do. You're not supposed to be a central banker and worried about a
stock market. And then when the stock market didn't cooperate months later, he started printing
money right before COVID. And then he printed to $9 trillion. And what did he do? Well, he helped
you with your mortgages and screwed you as savers, which has now created another distortion,
and that is nobody wants to trade in their 3% mortgages for now what's above 7%. And you can't
blame them. And all anybody needs to do is get an amortization table on a half million dollars
over 30 years and see what the payments are, 3% versus a 7% and how much more you're paying
an interest over the life. It is gargantuan. That's all from Jay Powell.
and then we told you he created the inflation.
It was him, even though nobody wants to blame Biden on that
because it's easier to blame an elected official.
Biden just put fuel on the kerosene on the fire
with his asinine, ass a 10, ass 11 spending.
But the central bankers still matter, unfortunately,
even though they suck.
And have been part of all this massive deficits,
even though they don't create it, but they enable it with the low rates and never saying a damn thing.
So all the talk is about our central bank lowering their rates.
The problem is, if the real market rates keep going up, their ability to lower rates comes down.
Their ability.
Why?
because the free market, the real market,
matters a lot more than them.
They only mattered when they printed to $9 trillion.
They only mattered at that point in time.
They're usually nothing,
and they really should be nothing.
It should be us, the economy.
We, the people, the economy, not them.
I keep hearing, oh, we engineered inflation.
No, they don't engineer anything except damage.
Oh, we engineer soft land.
They don't engineer soft landings.
It's 150 million people going to work every day
to do better for themselves and families that are the economy
and create the great.
They don't create squat, but they still matter.
And if interest rates, the real market, keep going.
going up. The thought processes, there's no way they can lower rates, and due to the fact
markets love lower rates from the central, you get my point. So the hand would be forced
into not. And God forbid, I hate saying the words, God forbid, let's hope that the 10-year
yield, which is now above 4-7, doesn't head towards 5-5, which is that.
or higher because then it would be telling them they screwed up again.
And it would be telling they would not be listening that Biden's massive, unimaginable,
sickening, disgusting over the top takeover of this country with two to three trillion dollars
of deficits, two to three trillion of yearly deficits.
and an increase of the size in government from $4.4 trillion the year before COVID to the mid-7s.
It's about as sickening as sickening can be.
I can't begin to tell you what a sickening, disgusting thing he is doing to us and the long-term health of this country.
And that's the reason, which is even worse, he's coming at us.
he wants a 45% long-term capital gains and a wealth tax on if you make too much money.
He keeps saying he's not against the wealthy.
He hates the wealthy.
He loathes the wealthy.
He wants to kick the wealthy in the grapefruits.
He proves it every single day.
That's what Marxists are about.
They loathe success.
they loathe greatness because successful people do not need control freaks and Marxists
and people like Sanders and Maduro in Venezuela and Castro and Cuba.
Yes, I'm putting him economically in the same sentence with those names because what did those people do?
They took over the economy and that's what this guy's doing.
or at least trying to.
I am praying the Republicans.
If he ends up winning again,
just keep the House of the Senate and get the Senate
so none of his crap can go through.
Because if he gets long-term capital gains in
and a wealth tax in,
I can't imagine what's going to happen economically.
You're already seeing from some of their sickness
and their rules what's happened.
People are getting fired left and right because of the decision to raise to $20 an hour for fast food restaurants.
It's insanity.
These people have never run a business, never have to meet payroll.
Nothing.
Yet, they're dictating all this policy to the business.
world? They're nuts. We cannot have another four years of Joe Biden's border and Joe Biden's
debt and deficits and growth of the economy. We will not be able to stand another four years
of this illness. You know what that means. But I mean that. And as I have said to you,
you don't feel it because right now, you don't see it coming out of the world. You don't see it coming
out of your bank account.
If you did, he could not get away with using your tax dollars to relieve other people's
loans.
But he's doing it.
Hey, up next, what else is going on?
And an update on Microsoft and Google.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Hello, hello.
I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research,
Jake Embatta, we discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI,
coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.
It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will mature.
Right?
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with Conton?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum.
Amazon Hub Delivery wants to partner with your business.
Help your business. Help your neighbors.
Discover a new stream of income for your business when you partner with Amazon Hub delivery.
You and your team will deliver Amazon packages to customers in your neighborhood,
on a schedule that works for you,
and you'll be paid for every package you deliver.
Getting started is easy.
There's no delivery experience required,
no long-term contracts,
and you receive weekly direct deposits.
Earn more.
Gain exposure for your business.
Apply today at Amazon.com slash hub delivery.
That's Amazon.com slash H-U-B delivery.
Know a local business that would make a great partner,
a local coffee shop owner, florist, automotive shop, dry cleaner,
you name it.
Refer a business today and earn $500 when they successfully join the program.
Visit Amazon.com slash hub delivery to learn more or refer a partner.
That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.
Now looking for hub partners in your area.
Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
It's stockup savings time now through March 31st.
Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points.
Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, body armor,
Oira Ida, Silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin.
Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings.
Stack up those rewards to save even more.
Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick-up or delivery.
Restrictions apply.
See website for full terms and conditions.
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In the guest's edge.
with Gary Culper.
Okay.
So it's still a good aftermarket, but Microsoft, which was at 423 in the aftermarket, is now only 414.
But it's up 5 in change for today, including the aftermarket.
Remember, Microsoft was down 20 on the open today, finished down 10, so it still is up about
15 bucks in the aftermarket.
And that's good.
But it will just be
back at the 50-day moving average
and in the midst of about three or four months of range.
Google, let's see,
did hit 179 in the aftermarket.
I got it at 174 now.
So that's coming back a little bit too.
No biggie.
The good news is
the NASDAQ 100 with these moves.
is up about 1% in the aftermarket,
which is a good 1% considering today.
And we'll see what happens tomorrow.
KLA 10 Cor, I now have,
I think it's up about $10 in the aftermarket
to $670, about $682, $684 somewhere in there,
on another drop in sales,
because that's what happens with these things.
And there's a few others,
but I'm going to bypass them for right.
Now let me see if there's anything else I can do quite quickly.
Roku SkyWest.
I'm just not seeing any movement in here.
Snapchat always gaps down.
Actually, Snap is up.
Finally is up 24% in the aftermarket to 1420.
Keep in mind.
It's going to open at 1420.
The stock hit a high of,
Only 84 in 2021.
Yeah, think long term.
So we're going to have a good open tomorrow.
I gather we'll see some sympathy moves also.
And good to see because I got to tell you, today was gross.
But good defense.
It was a good defense day with the Dow down 375.
While the NASDAX lighten up like a pinball machine,
the Dow's up about 50 points in the aftermarket.
Oh, Microsoft.
That would be about 40 points in the after market also.
And that's the story, ladies and gentlemen.
Wild swings led by quite the few names.
And as I speak, because I'm ambidextrose,
I'm going through some other names also.
Other news.
As I said,
This capital gains, whatever is the biggest capital gains tax in 100 years.
This man is an economic...
By the way, I hate using these words, but he's an economic psycho.
He really is an economic control freak, an economic con artist.
Spend the hell out of us.
Abuse the taxpayer.
Go ape crap with our money.
And when you don't have enough, spend two to three trillion more
and then go after this wealthy and successful.
That already pay a lot more than their fair share.
And I repeat, I'd say it to his face and I'd have no problem doing it.
In the news, interesting, at least 13 banks may have worked with the feds to spy on transactions of people
religious Trump supporters or pro-gun?
What the hell country do we live in?
At least 13 financial institutions
are being investigated by Republicans in Congress
for colluding with the federal government
to spy on Americans.
Let's see, are they going to spy on these stupid creeps
that are protesting now at the colleges
and wishing the death of Jews?
I'm interested in finding out if this actually happened.
It's saying the Biden administration work with banks to come through what they called extremism indicators like the purchase, get this, of religious text like a Bible, or searches including the terms Trump or MAGA.
If this is true, now go impeach Biden.
Now go and impeach him.
if this is true
spying on Americans
and you wonder why I'm pissed
the worst
we cannot have another four years
and I don't really want to be the advocate
we can't have another four years of his
border and his
economy
his debt and deficits
and remember this show is about
simply you and everything that affects you
and your wallet and your job
and your money and the markets
And this dude is going to be like, you ever see the movie The Blob?
Go look up the story of The Blob.
This is the complete and utter trying to take over everything with rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, taxes.
And they don't give a crap that the fact that Florida is running a surplus with low taxes,
but California is running gargantuan deficits with gargantuan taxes.
They don't care.
They want control.
And that's how they do it.
And they use the line, we're doing it for you, and we care about you.
They couldn't give a crap about you.
It is the solidification of power, and it's got to be stopped.
And you do it by a controlled border and low taxes for all.
and what high taxes and ridiculously high taxes on the wealthy is successful,
it is not going to hurt the already wealthy and successful.
It will prevent you from being wealthy and successful
because every time you move up the rung, he is there with his machete,
cutting you off at the knees.
It's classic.
You can look at the rules of the road of socialists and Marxists,
and the man is classic.
classic and we're going to continue to cover it in every way, shape, or form.
Until then, hey, we'll have a good open tomorrow.
Yay!
Have a good evening drive carefully.
I should be on with Neil Cavuto tomorrow.
I think he's out this week.
It'll be with somebody else.
Noon hour.
Check that out.
And when you get home to do like we do quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Thanks for being with us today.
And thanks for putting up with my crazy.
But it's about you.
Have a great one.
Peace out all.
Bye bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryKK.com.
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