Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Defense is Key [02.27.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: February 27, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

With so many options, why choose Arizona State University? For me, the only online option was ASU because of the quality. Their faculty was really involved with their students and care about your personal journey. The dedication to my personal development from my professors, that's been extremely valuable to me. Earn your degree from the nation's most innovative university. Online.

That's a degree better. Explore more than 350-plus undergraduate, graduate and certificate programs at ASUonline.asu.org.org. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary CultBomb. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today.

Today is Thursday, February 27, 2025. And we've got a great show for you tonight. As always, we want to thank you very much for being here. All right, before we dive into the show, we've got a lot to cover. Defense is key. That is the big message of the day, but some housekeeping.

As you know, this is a show about you and your money and all the fun points in between. Just as a quick reminder, I do tend to speak fast. There's so much to say, so little time. But the good news is you can go to garyk.com, listen live or archive.

24-7, we are live Monday through Friday, 6 or 7 p.m. Eastern. Also at garyk.com, you can follow Gary on X, formerly known as Twitter by just pressing the button. You can subscribe and Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox for free. Email Gary about his money management services or subscribe to his premium service, which is called convictionleaders.com.

So there he updates members several times a day with his thoughts about the market, gives leading stocks, actionable ideas, daily webcasts, a whole lot more. All that's available at convictionleaders.com. All right, few thoughts. I'm going to read directly from Gary to make sure I'm not. messenger. I want to make sure I convey what Gary wants me to convey right at the top of the show. Obviously, the Navidia reaction to earnings is key in front and center. You know, the earnings were up 71% in Navidia year over year, but the reaction was not, bueno, was no good. It rallied right into

its 50-day moving average or thereabouts and then rolled over, undercut the 200-day moving average and fell a few percentage points, five, six percentage points. You know, you're in a situation where throughout the day, like intraday, it was down that much. So when you have a situation where the reaction to the news is not as good as expected, that's what matters, folks. Why? And this is important. The markets are forward-looking mechanism by design, by definition.

It discounts the future, right? It's a forward-looking mechanism. The earnings reports that come out, economic data, we had GDP this morning and some other economic data, by definition, are rearview mirror phenomenons. But there's a disconnect. Wait a minute. Earnings were up 71%, sales were up there 78%. You know, return equities, triple digits.

Oh my goodness, that looks fantastic. Stocks down, five, six, seven percent. You know, that what? That's what matters. Hits the 50 day and hits a wall and then falls. That's what matters. Because the reaction to the news, by the way, this is me talking. I'll get back to Gary's notes in a second.

The reaction to the news, folks, is what that's what matters. That's what shows up, the price on your statement, on my statement, and it's a single most important variable that determines whether or not somebody is profitable or unprofitable in the market. It's the price. It's not, it's a difference between your entry price and the market price. It's not the latest earnings report. It's not, you know, volume.

It's not their P.E. ratio or their book sales to book rate, all that other stuff, secondary. All important stuff. just in my world, price is primary. So, let me keep reading from Gary. All right, obviously the Navidia reaction to earnings, while everyone, and I mean everyone is saying everything's fine, everything's terrific, while the smart money is selling, distributing a lot of stock.

That's important to note. That's Gary's first point. Second, and of course, the last 10 days of carnage in most everything related to technology, he doesn't know where it ends or when it ends, but it certainly doesn't help that arguably the most important technology stock, which is Navidia opens up and then immediately gets sold off and does it with volume.

That's Navidia today. Next, Gary says, my message is to be careful about everyone with bullish talk while the stock heads south. The stock action is a lot more important than people's opinions because that is the big institutions, the smart money. Since I'm traveling, let's see here, what else does he's going to say? And then, of course, add the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are under some distribution right now, and the institutions are in there selling because when you see the market, you know, the 50-day moving average is really important. But when you see the market roll over the way this thing is rolling over, you know, it broke the 50, the NASDAQ 100.

If you want to follow along at home, oh, by the way, that's it for Gary. So the rest is going to be me now. For those of you that take notes and, you know, are more particular details. But the 50-day moving average, the NASDAQ 100 broke below it on the 24th of February, just a few days ago. And since then, it's been two days below the 50. Today's day three rallied up a little bit, hit resistance just below the 50, couldn't get above it. And then the NASDAQ-Q-QQ-Q turned south, undercut the lows from the last few days, and just boom, big sell-off down towards 500 level, which was support going back to January's low. You know, that's no bueno, not good action, distribution, right?

Distribution is just code for heavy selling. Ditto for the S&P 500. You know, they say three out of four stocks follow the broader market. It could be more. The vast majority of stocks follow the major indices because the major indices are just a reflection of the stocks in those indices. The S&P 500 has 500 stocks in them. Well, those stocks are all going up. The S&P 500 is going up.

They're all going down or most of them are going down. Remember, a lot of them are market weighted depending on the index you look at. But the vast majority of them, you know, the indexes reflect the stock. in those indexes, right? So that's why these indices are important because it's a mirror. It's a reflection. Right. So the S&P 500, same thing, rallying into the 50, failed. It undercut the 50 on the 24th of February, closed below it definitively that day, and then spent two days yesterday the day before, you know, just below it. And then today, rallied into it this morning, rolled over and just sold off hard. So that's distribution. And by the way, in my world, defense is

key, defense is king, you know, Paramount, any other big word you want to use, a defensive stance is warranted until we get back above the 50 or until we see some, the bulls regain control. Basically, you use that mirror again, image of what we're seeing now. Instead of heavy distribution, a.k.a. heavy selling, we see heavy accumulation, aka heavy buying. But for now, defense is key. And the market is speaking. You know, in my book, if you haven't read it yet, I recommend everybody read it. I wrote it. So I'm biased. But I think it was number of, want on Amazon every day for three months, and I'm very proud about that and happy about that. And thank you all for supported and left nice comments on Amazon. The book is called

psychological analysis. And in it, I say the market is speaking and then ask, are you listening? And the idea of the book in one sentence is to teach people how to make rational, not emotional decisions with their money in the market. Or let me say that again, rational, not emotional decisions in the market. With their money. Two ends right there. So the market speaking, here we go, right? You break down below the 50 day and the S&P and the NASDAQ on the same day on the 24th. You live it below it for a few days and then boom. Another leg down.

Okay. So clearly that's the market speaking, right? The Dow, DIA, the S&P 500 if you're following along at home is SPY. The NASDAQ 100 is QQQ. The Dow, DIA, right? You broke below it on the 21st. You move sideways for a few days. rallied above it this morning and then rolled over.

Heavy selling showed up. Now let's go down to mid-caps and then smaller caps. They're much weaker on a relative basis. The MDY, which is the S&P 400, is not only below the 50-day, it's also below its 200-day moving average, and it's testing the January lows. If those are broken definitively and stay below there near 560 in the MDY, no braino.

That'll be a big break of support. multi-month base going back to Q4 of last year, November, December. The markets have really been going sideways since then. If they roll over and they start breaking down below support, we can easily have another leg down. This is the first time the MDY is below its 200-day moving average since we had a brief tease in August, but really it closed above it. It was rejected. But really since the end of 2023.

Again, the market speaking, how it's just. job is to listen and then adjust accordingly. And Gary's been on this like white on rice. The Russell 2000, the IWM, 2,000 stocks broke the 50 day back in December on December 18th. And really he's been below the 50 day since then. You tried to rally a little bit in January and early February and then boom, you rolled over on 21st the same day the Dow broke down, the Russell broke down. And broke below its 50, well, it was below the 50, but broke below, it's 200 day moving average.

And then it lived below the 200 for a few days, the last few days this week. And then guess what? Today, it's rolling over. And now it's testing that low going back to January, 213 and change. And it could close below it, close above it. It could, you know, for a few days, it's not a matter of one day. Just, oh, it broke support. That's it.

It's over. No, you can easily break down and rally back up again. But the idea is that there's pressure, right? the market's getting weaker, not stronger, as the indices, as we go through them one by one, you can see the smaller cap and mid-cap stocks are weaker on a relative basis. And they're more sensitive to interest rates, and they're more sensitive to the economy, and they're more sensitive to risk. Remember, folks, this whole business, it's a business of managing risk.

That is so powerful, because what are we doing? You know, you're buying a stock. I bought this stock. I sold that stock. Really, what you're doing is you're buying and selling risk. I'll let that sink in for a little bit. We're buying and selling risk. And the best money managers in the world are the ones that manage risk the best.

Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 8-8-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

for an underwear refreshes now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.

Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com.

Rewind, fast forward. Listen at your convenience for free on any device 24-7 from anywhere in the world that has Internet. It's a beautiful life that we live in. It's the greatest time in history to be alive. You have more at our fingertips with AI and technology than people had in any other time in human history, just for access to information. Anyway, so I can go off on a whole tangent there, but I'm going to stay focused here on the market. So, spoke about the fact that defense is king.

It's key. It's important. Paramount, you know, defense, defense, until the action improves. Spoke about the fact that the market is speaking loud and clear, our jobs to listen. you know, when you have the market, the NVIDIA, arguably one of the most important institutional darlings of this market or the stock de jour, you know, everyone's focused on it from an AI standpoint, from a big leadership standpoint, reports, numbers, and then gets distributed, sold off, you know, a.k.a. heavy selling afterwards. The reaction to those numbers are lousy, that's not good.

Couple that with the fact that the market's rolling over, the major indices are below the $50. day. Some of them are below the 200 day. And you've got distribution, heavy selling. All of that put together, hey, we should be a little bit defensive here. And you've got looming tariffs coming next week, which Trump has made very clear that one month extension for Canada and Mexico is going to be enforced. Now, they could strike another deal. But for now, there's, you know, markets like certainty. There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty out there. What does all this mean? You know, back in February, a few weeks ago, back a few weeks ago when the tariffs were first enforced or announced, the market sold off hard. And then it rallied back once the deal was reached with Canada and Mexico to

extend them for a month. Well, guess what? That extension's literally ending at the end of this month, beginning of March, come Monday. There's a possibility tariffs are there worse or they are there, who knows, any of that stuff. Well, okay, great. All I know is sellers are in control right now. All I know is price, right? The market's a forward-looking mechanism. What is the market telling us about the economy, about earnings growth, about growth in general? And this is not a political statement. This is more of a very simple risk management standpoint statement. Hey, what's the best thing to do right now with my money? Remember, we're not buying and selling stocks. I wish I came up with that concept, by the way. It's not my line. We're buying and selling risk.

one of the money managers I interviewed on my Smart Money Circle show told me that free podcast if you want to listen by all means I interview CEOs of publicly traded companies and then Money Managers for timeless advice you can go on YouTube or go on any podcasting and type in Smart Money Circle or go to SmartMoney Circle.com and listen for free. There's no charge there and I love to learn. I know I don't know so I've got one job and you can see I'm passionate and come to life when I share what I've learned with others because one nugget of wisdom can fundamentally change my entire world. It has so many times over and over and over again. So I wish somebody was there to teach me and nobody was. Okay, great. Well, you know, some people

were, but, uh, you know, oh a lot to Gary and massive, massive, massive thanks from bottom my heart. I started listening to Gary on the radio back in the late 90s and early 2000s. And, uh, he's been absolutely fantastic, instrumental, I mean, big standing up, rounding, you know, standing ovation. Uh, for everything. that he does, not even has done. Because when you can learn, they say a wise person learns from their mistakes, a wiser person learns from other people's mistakes, when you can learn from someone else's mistakes or learn how someone else sees the market or sees life that is already successful, like how Gary shares his thoughts about the market with us every day.

This is extreme. That's a lot of work. It gives you an edge. Hence the name, investors. edge, brilliant. It gives you an edge, right? So I can't remember who I was speaking to. That's why I can't give you the guy's exact name because this was years ago. And the guy said, we're not buying, Adam, you're not buying it selling stocks. You're buying it selling risks. I said, wow. And the best money managers out there understand that. The best money managers out there know that this is a business of managing risk. And they're rewarded when they manage risk the best. Because, Anybody can buy a stock. Anybody can sell a stock.

And people do that. Millions of people do that all day long. And the vast majority of people don't beat the market. So I'm a borderline obsessed with really focused laser in on why do some people beat the market and most don't. Well, they're using the information that we all have access to differently and better than the ones that can't perform, right? The ones that perform, use the information better than the ones that can't perform that well. and they've learned to master themselves. They have structure.

They have rules. They have regulations in place to help them protect themselves from themselves. What does that mean? We all have strengths. We all have weaknesses. Guess what, folks? These super successful people, just about any endeavor, any industry, they're very disciplined. They're very focused.

Yes, yes, yes. But they also have guardrails up. And Ray Dalio talks about this in his, book principles. And Ray Daly is one of the biggest money managers ever and most successful. He says, we have strengths, we have weaknesses, we have blind spots, build guardrails to protect yourself from your weaknesses and your blind spots. And surround yourself with people that can compliment you. So if I'm very good adamant big picture, I'm very weak at details. Find somebody that's very good at details and bring them around me to compliment me, right?

They might not be good at big picture stuff. Guess what? There's a match. Blind spots, right? That's deeper work needed there to figure out your blind spots. But it's there if you do the work. One of the best, now, okay, that sounds good at him. What do I do?

How do I figure that out? Here you go. One of the best ways to figure all of that out that I've learned how to do. And I've learned some others. Again, stand in the shoulder of giants. I have a chapter in my book. It's called post analysis. Gary talks about this, Bill O'Neill's talked about this, so many other people.

And again, think of that mirror. We'll just use that mirror for the rest of the show today as, you know, coming back to that golden thread, if you will. It's a mirror image of what you're doing. When you print out your stocks or you can screen FaceTime or what do they call now, print screen or whatever, take a screenshot, that's the word, of your winners and you're losing trades and put them in different folders. here are my winners, here are my losers, and then go through them. What was I thinking when I bought that stock? What was I thinking when I sold it? What patterns can you identify from your own behavior?

It's not a quote-unquote fun job. Nobody wants to look at their mistakes. Nobody wants to study their own actions. But I can tell you from experience, it is extremely rewarding. extremely rewarding. It's just like doing the sit-ups, right? Humans are programmed to seek pleasure and avoid pain. Most humans, they look at short-term pain or pleasure and they make their decision based on that. So it feels good to eat a cookie. I get pain if I go to the gym. I'm just going to eat a cookie. But long-term, it's the opposite. You get long-term pain if you keep eating cookies all day long, and you get long-term pleasure if you go to the gym. Same thing with here. Do the mental sit-ups and the long-term pleasure is more than worth it. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors' edge.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000, airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com,

rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience 24-7 at any device. The reason why I keep saying that, by the way, is A to tell you, but B, that wasn't available. 25 years ago when I was listening in the late 90s early 2000s, I'd had to tune in on AM radio and catch Gary at the exact same time that he was on the air. And if I missed it, then I missed it. So it was, I'm just, you know, wow, the fact that we could just push play and pause and rewind and all that fun stuff. All right. Let's keep moving forward.

So we spoke about a lot so far. Market defense, defense, defense, pay attention to the reaction to the news, not just the news itself. We spoke about a lot of concepts that are in my book, which one is respect risk. You know, I have an investment system. And Amped is the title of a D is defense first. So important, right? You protect your mental capital, which I'll speak about in a minute here, and then your physical capital. We also spoke about the markets of forward-looking mechanism.

And data, economic data, earnings data is a rearview mirror phenomenon by data. definition. The video's earnings came out today told us what happened last quarter. Okay, Marcus is looking forward. What's next? Instantly, once that news hits, it's old news. What? One second later. Yep, news is over. What's next? So, then we spoke about risk and the importance of managing risk. And then now I want to, we spoke about some other things as well, but really now I want to speak about is the importance of capital. And that's the importance of capital. And that's the We spoke about post-analysis. We spoke about the importance of the mirror image,

looking at yourself, finding your blind spots, identifying your strengths, identifying your weaknesses, seeing where you can do better, seeing where you can improve. You know, the pain, pleasure spoke about a lot. But the next area that I want to really focus on is help. That helped me tremendously. I understood that capital comes in two forms. There's physical capital, which is money in the bank,

or in the brokerage account or whatever. and then there's mental capital. And I believe, and I could be wrong here, but I believe mental capital is more important than physical capital. Why? Because you could take somebody that has strong mental capital,

take away all their money, they get rich again. Look at Trump. He had to file for bankruptcy his companies way back when decades ago. I think there was a story that I heard, I don't know if it's true or not, but he was walking with his daughter

in Fifth Avenue, he saw a bum on the street, and he's like, hey, that guy's got, and I think he was a billion in debt at the time. And he said, told Devong, he's like, that guy's got a billion dollars more money than I do. Or something along those lines. Doesn't matter. Guy came back. He's richer than he's ever been in history. He became president of the United States. Wow. Strong mental capital. Not a political statement. Strong mental capital.

Just a fact. Okay. Now take these people that win the lottery. They have weak or poor negative mental capital, right? And they're negative after the win. The high wears off, they blow all the money, see you later. Athletes that make millions of dollars, artists that make millions of dollars, they run out of money, they're broke. Someone just told me recently that Bruno Mars might be broke. He had a gambling problem. He gambled all this money away. I don't know if that's true or not. Again, just heard it. Tyson, think about Mike Tyson, how many hundreds of millions dollars like I made and then blew and then made me, you know, it's just crazy. Or Don King or any of these, there's so many. They have a Netflix documentary about all these athletes that made

millions and then they're broke afterwards. That's, you know, lousy negative, just bad mental capital. Again, this is a skill. There's an art to it. There's a science to it. Understanding money, understanding how you think, understanding that decisions impact your financial well-being is a skill that I believe anybody can learn if they do the work. But most people just enter Wall Street or just open up an account on whatever platform they want, put a hundred bucks in there. And guess what? I'm a stock trader. If I want to be a doctor, I got to go to school for seven, eight years or whatever it is, right?

Lawyer, same thing. Go to undergrad and then go to grad school, six, seven years, whatever it is. LSATs and BABON, MCATs and this. There's a whole bunch of things that people have to do. But trading, hey, I'm a trader. So people do it and they think they can win without learning how. And that's my passion is that how part, right? Nobody gets a six pack by accident.

Nobody that I know becomes a billionaire by accident or becomes super successful and consistently beats the market by accident. That is extremely, it's one talent that is extremely valuable. And a lot of it, it just comes down to understanding the way markets work. and the way the human mind behaves or makes decisions. Right? So understand that mental capital is so important. I'm not saying the physical capital is not important.

They're both extremely important. All I'm saying is understand the mental capital. You do the mental sit-ups. You study, you do the hard things that people try to avoid the post-analysis and being intellectually honest with yourself. Mui, Mui and Portato, super important. Super important. Because if you're, it's so easy to lie to yourself when you're trading.

Nobody's, quote, unquote, looking over your shoulder or this or that or, you know, most, I'm talking about people that are trading for doing-it-yourself investors from home and they have a account, they're trading from their phone or whatever. Their phone and the computer or their iPad, you know, I've seen people trade from all over the place, even on an airplane with Wi-Fi. and then deceive themselves and lie to themselves and say, oh, yeah, I didn't do anything, quote, unquote, wrong. They break their own rules. They create their own rules and then they break. I'm like, oh, yeah. I'm not going to tell my wife, I'm not going to tell my husband or I'm not going to live. I'm not going to blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

And there's a whole rabbit hole. All that can be avoided. Just pause and say, okay, I'm human, right? I have a mind. If I have a mind, I have biases. I have cognitive biases. Well, what are they? I outlined in my book, but let's go through a few of them.

One of my favorite ones is the personal blind spot bias, which means people can't see themselves objectively. Here's an example. Ask 100 newlyweds the night they got married. How many of you raise your hand if you think you're going to get divorced on their wedding night? Nobody's going to raise their hand or virtually nobody's going to raise their hand. But statistically, we know half of them are getting divorced. Well, riddle me that, Batman. How's that possible? People can't see themselves objectively. I speak to investors for a living.

I'm doing it for 20 years. professionals, individuals, the money show, privately, publicly, all over the place. Been on TV, you know, Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox business, the whole nine yards. We contributed to Forbes.com, contributor to zero hedge, a whole nine yards. I ask people, raise your head if you can beat the market. Almost everybody's hand goes up. Otherwise, what else are you doing?

Well, statistically, we know most people aren't, but the few that can do things differently. They have a lot of the things I spoke about today. They have guardrails. They do those mental set-ups. They have strong mental capital. They have a system of accountability. And by the way, folks, this is timeless advice for just about any endeavor.

Napoleon Hill talked about in his great book, Thinking Grow Rich 100 plus years ago, whenever he published it, he said one of the things is accountability. Another great thing is accurate thinking. I'm bullish, but the market's going down. What? Beavis, you know, but-head is that all show where it's like, uh, you know, they're just exaggerated to illustrate the point. I'm doing it just to, you know, illustrate the point, no other reason.

Or I'm bearish, but the market's bullish. That's inaccurate thinking, right? One of the jobs of having strong mental capital is being able to be flexible and adapt. You know, we go back to Darwin. It's not just the strong who survived, it's the ones that can adapt the most. And Lord Keynes, a famous economist, has had a great line. He goes, when the facts change, I change. What do you do, sir? Again, when the facts change, I change. So if I'm, quote, unquote, bearish and the market's bullish, think about that for accurate thinking. So my, you know, my amped investment system, M is market conditions. Align yourself with the market. Be in harmony with the market. Not just harmony with the market. Be in harmony with the market. It's my little play on words, but, you know, the point's clear.

the goal is to be aligned with the market as much as you can because if you are you'll do very, very well. And if you're not, hey, there's always another day, but again, manage risk. So again, focus on the mental capital. Ask yourself, what's my structure? Imagine, again, cognitive bias is the personal blinds bias. Imagine there's 100 people in a room. They want to do something. somebody has no plan, half the group, and the other half has a plan. Even the plan's not the best, but they have a plan and they can execute the plan. Who do you think is going to perform better? The group with the plan, with structure, with discipline, and follow the plan, or the group without the plan?

They just wing it. What's your plan for the market? How do you approach things? What's your quote-unquote system? Even if you're a discretionary guy. That's good. I'm a discretionary guy. Get some rules.

Get some guardrails. Get some structure. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. And this is the one and only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,

Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One. Change. Ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan, in for Gary Kay, who's out today. All right, in case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, we covered a lot. Thank you very much for being here.

You can go to GaryKK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen to the episode, pause, rewind fast forward, take notes, anything you want to do on any device, all for free. anytime you want. All right. Spoke about mental capital. You ever do something and hit a wall? I have. In any endeavor, it doesn't matter to the learning curve. You've learned something, get really good at it, and then all of a sudden you just hit a wall. Lose weight. I lost five pounds, and I hit a wall.

I lost 10 pounds. I hit a wall. These things, I have a chapter in the book called mental walls. Right? We've all hit walls before. Another way to get ahead and get an edge is to look at yourself objectively. and ask yourself, what are the walls, what's holding me back? Chapter 10 of my book, it's what's holding me back or what's holding you back? Mental walls and cognitive biases. It's really important to understand that, hey, we have lots of different walls.

Some of them are like a knowledge wall. I just don't know what to do. In execution wall, these are things like, hey, I have a plan. My job is to trade my plan. Guess the one thing I can't do. trade the plan. Most people in the world or in the country are overweight. Simple formula.

Calories in versus calories out. Simple. Have a calorie deficit. Eat less. And you can lose weight. It doesn't matter about the diet. It doesn't matter of anything. Just eat less and burn more calories and you lose weight.

But most people are overweight. They know what to do. There's a knowledge wall there. But then there's the execution part. They can't execute. I have a plan. Adam. I made a trading plan. Okay, great.

Did you follow it? Nope. So, and this is me for years, folks, years. And then there's the emotional wall too. But it's my money. I love this stock. It can't go down. You know, it's getting cheaper.

Well, it can get a lot cheaper. It can go a lot lower. You know, laws of physics, right? The laws of nature. An object in motion does what? An object in motion stays in motion. Things go up. They go a lot up a lot more than you think.

can go down a lot more than you can think. They will. And then understand those, the biased, cognitive biases and try to create an unbiased mind. It's difficult, but try to create guardrails in place. So what is some of the biases? We talked about the personal blinds spot bias. We can't see ourselves objectively, right? Okay, great. The important thing to do there is to say, hey, listen, if I was to talk to, I don't know, let's call somebody Bill or Joe or John or Scott. and say, hey, Scott, here's what I recommend you do. What I do, what I'm recommending someone does? You know, think about the parent with the kid.

Don't do what I, you know, what I do. Do what I say you should do. What? Be that role model for yourself. Do what you say. You know, if you think Scott or Bob or Bill or Mary or Jane or Julie shouldn't do X, Y, Z or should have a plan and you don't, well, ask yourself. Just because I didn't have a plan before.

Are I happy with my results? Can I do better? Where are my blind spots? And I encourage you to find them. And let me know. I'd love to hear. You can connect with me on LinkedIn. You can send me an email.

Info at findleadingstocks.com. You can send me on X. It's LinkedIn and X are both my name at Adam Sarn. And let me know what the blind spots are, what the strengths are, what the weaknesses are. I love this stuff. All for fun. All for free. Just want to what are your blount? How do I get better? Where's that endless pursuit of excellence? It's called

excellente in Spanish. I didn't know that. I don't speak any Spanish. Every once in a while, I'll drop a few words. But we had a resort in Cancun a few years ago with my family and my wife and kids and everybody at the staff, everyone's trained to say, you know, comeostin. Excellent. Excellent. You know, okay, great. So that's it. I want to be an excellent father, excellent husband, excellent trader, excellent investor, excellent enter your profession, enter your interest, excellent tennis player, excellent golfer. Well, we're going to study golf. We're going to study tennis. How do I hold, excuse me, how do I hold the racket?

How do I hit the ball? How fast am I swinging? Am I feet in the right place? Golf. I slice the ball hard to the right. All right, maybe I should stand a little bit different. Turn the club. Pay attention to how my swing is in the way down.

whatever. Study and improve. Study and improve. Trading, investing, same thing. And we have the data in front of us. It's your actions. That's what's so powerful. And if you take the time and look at it objectively, and yeah, we all make mistakes. And that's okay. Let's learn from those mistakes. Look at this as a massive opportunity to get better, to improve, to learn. In any endeavor, all this stuff is timeless. You know, we have cognitive biases. It impacts our decisions in every aspect of our lives, not just investing or trading. We're all looking at the same data. People interpret it differently. I literally had a guy I work with just the other day, email them something for somebody sent me an email. And he looked at the, he read the email. I read the email. He had a complete

different interpretation of that email than I did. It was so clear in my mind's eye that this is what we should do. It was so clear in his mind's eye that that's what the guy's saying to do. two intelligent, relatively intelligent people. I like to say I'm thinking myself as relatively intelligent. Okay, great. I'm lucky if I can tie my shoes, but that's another story. Reading the same exact email, two different interpretations of it. Now imagine all the thousands and millions of data points in the market.

The news, the headlines, the prices, the moving averages, or this, that, the then, it's what you do with the information that matters. It's the actions you take or the actions you don't take. But they come down to decisions. having a fantastic life, having a, you know, being more successful, it comes down to improving the quality of your decisions. Should I take that action? Yes or no. Decision.

Remember, short-term consequences, pain pleasure. Long-term consequences, pain pleasure. Usually they're switched. Short-term if something's painful, they'll give you long-term pleasure. Not always, but most of the time. Doing those sit-ups. Good example. Gives me pain if I go to the gym and do the sit-ups.

I don't like it. I don't like it. I don't like it. You know, okay, great. But long-term, I have pleasure. And the opposite is true also. short-term, it feels good, I get a pleasure, eat the cake or eat the cookie. Do that all day, every day.

No, boy, no, not good. Long-term pain. So be conscious or be cognizant of the long-term consequences to your decisions. Ask yourself, do I have a plan? Do I have, what's more of my cognitive biases? What walls? Not wall, but multiple people have, you know, people have multiple walls, multiple biases that are impacting my decisions.

And you can Google cognitive biases or go on AI and use, you know, play with chat, GPT, or or whatever AI tool you want to use and have fun with it. But again, respect risk as we wrap up here. Take your time. Sellers are in control. Watch that 50-day moving average line. As Gary has mentioned several times, take your time and this two shall pass. Thank you very much. As always, Gary back tomorrow. I'll speak to you again soon. Take care, everybody. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommy John.com. today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.