Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Deterioration

Episode Date: September 26, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is, I think September 26th. It is a Tuesday. We are pre-tapping this show just before 3 p.m. So the market will not close for another hour. So we will not be taking you to the close. Just to give you an idea of what I have been doing, I am with my almost 92-year-old father.

We are doing the show right now from a room that's not a hospital room, but a room at the hospital where I can do my thing and do the show. My father's doing well. At that, here's the story. He fell and had staples in his head. The good news is no issues, but they're working on some old age things. So he's going to be in for a few more days. I flew up to New York, New Jersey.

On Sunday, I'll be here the rest of the week. I want to thank Adam for doing the show yesterday. I felt it necessary to do the show today. because unfortunately, unfortunately, some of the things we told you about that could happen are coming to fruition. We'll do that in just the second. Anyway, we are big about family first. We put everything to the side, but we do run a business, and we are very good at improvising, as you can see. and the best part of what we do with radio is I can walk around with an iPhone and my earbuds

click on a software program called Lucy Live and be hooked into the network and be able to do this show right now. On top of that, I have one little laptop with me, which has, as you know, anybody who knows knows I have five computers in front of me at all times. four of them have screens of stocks. Well, this one laptop has back pages that has all the screens of stocks that we need so we know what's going on. So that's basically the story. Again, we want to thank Adam. And I do not know what my schedule is going to be like this week.

I do not know if I'll be able to do more radio shows this week. it will depend on the health of my father who will be 92 on October 20th. And just so you know, it was really like a year and a half ago that I got the car keys away from. That's how strong the man is. And I must say also my mom, what a rock at the age of 90. I don't think he can be without her and the rock that she is. So hopefully I have those good genes as I move forward. Now, unfortunately, we have to segue.

So let's go backwards and just tell you what we've been telling you. And we use some canned coined language with you when we do this show. One of them has been if yields and oil prices keep going higher, bad. That's basically what we say. We then go on to say fundamentally, yields and oil prices go in higher, bad. Why would that be? Well, from the individual, all the way up to the largest of corporations and conglomerates, the cost of everything throughout the food chain goes up. And what does that do? Well, it prevents.

It prevents the consumer from maybe buying two things instead of three. It prevents the consumer from maybe eating in instead of going to a restaurant. If that consumer doesn't go to the restaurant, that's one less person that is at the restaurant. If you add up more and more people that don't go to that restaurant, they will have less profits and less the share. And what if that domino effect and domino effect and domino effect? And what we have seen, oil prices have gone from 68 a barrel to over 90 in less than 90 days. That is a gargantuan cost to the consumer, to business, and then for any business that really needs, oil. What have been the worst acting stocks in the market in the last three months?

You got it. Airlines. Case closed. Then you have yields. Well, we already know what that's done to the housing business. It's now stood still. And the only reason why price is not cratering with these yields spiking is because people are loathe to sell in an environment where they would have to trade in a 3% mortgage to I think it's 7.6 on average right now. We're talking a huge difference.

And then the next part, stocks. So if all these businesses have to pay up for things and stuff and to borrow, and people are going to make decisions based on less of, well, what happens to stocks? Well, potentially, we always use the word potentially. Potentially, profits hit a wall. and come down. Potentially, margins get squeezed. And you know what happens when that happens?

Markets come down. Stocks come down. Simplistic is that. And due to the fact, we've had a majorly persistent move in oil prices and yields. Trouble. Now, before the last week or so, so, the trouble was underneath the surface. Now, let's call it three weeks. And what do we mean by

that? Well, the major indices were holding up pretty darn well. While we were able to come on to this show every day and say to you, oh, advance declines three to one negative, but the Dow is only down 10. New yearly lows, 200, new yearly highs, five. Advance declines on the NASDAQ, deep. into bare market lows while the NASDAX 20-some-odd percent above the bare market lows. That we knew what was going on. Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla, less so things like Netflix, Salesforce.com, Oracle. Some of the AI semiconductor moves and things like Broadcom. All the money was getting out of the average stock and staying in these big names.

But what did that lead to? As we stated for you, how many times now, Apple trading it 30 times earnings, which is double its norm of the last decade plus, though earnings and sales are now down to zero and less, how can that be? Well, it's because money flowed into the most liquid, reliable names. But there's usually an end game of that. They eventually come down. So, as we say to be watched, and day by day, we've been telling you, the market's deteriorating, major indices finally coming in,

breaking of the 50-day moving average on the major indices. this rolling over that rolling over this rolling over that rolling over and of course there's the russell 2000 which has been a horror show the small and midcaps completely underperforming foreign markets completely underperforming and with all this deterioration isn't in a matter of time before they get the big indices you we call them the popular indices because that's what people follow the most Oh, you turn on the TV. Oh, the Dow and the S&P. Well, we're better than that.

We go underneath the surface. That's how we're able to keep you out of trouble. If, of course, you listen, we don't tell you what to do. We tell you what we're doing, what we're thinking. You get to decide on your own money. Well, all we can tell you, much more deterioration, much more weakening. And now potentially. something else occurring.

Coming after the big guys. That's up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment advisory services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what, once again, to investors. Edge. So as I speak, and it's off the lows, today at 308 p.m., 52 minutes to go in the market, the Dow's down 370, the S&P's down 63, the NASDAQ 209, NASDAQ 100-228, transports 233,

Russell, advanced declines, terrible, the whole works. Oil prices up another. three quarters of a buck and the 10 year yield 4.558 it is now getting much ahead of the highs of 2008 the highs of 2008 were 4.324 so we're at 4.548 let me exact 4.558 at the close today up again today and finish near the highs of the day today after being down or a little. earlier today. Again. So put that aside. Let's do this by the book. The Dow now trades as I speak below the 200-day moving average, which currently is sitting at 33810. So you're down about 180 points below. The 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500, that means it's below the 50 day, by the way. S&P 500, in between the 50 and the 200 day, the NASDAQ, same. But another point, the low of August was 13161 on the NASDAQ, we're at 13065 as I write this. The S&P 500 was 4335 low in August. It's already 4273. So the August lows have been taken out. The NASDAQ 100, 14557 was the August lows.

It's at 14-541. So that's even below. And the NASDAQ 100's been holding up better. Why? The big guys. Which we'll get to in a second. The Russell 2000, 2,000 stocks way below everything, way below everything. And all the areas we have mentioned to you, the regional banks, all the areas we have said to avoid, nothing has changed. How's that?

And we don't need to go through that laundry list, but you know what they are. And it just worsens today. Notwithstanding, 50 minutes to go before the close today. The market's tried to rally a couple of times today to absolute no avail, which takes me to the next part of the equation. That top seven, the big seven, you have been hearing from many how it's been the whole market this year, how it's been 90% of the S&P 500. If you take them out, the S&P is almost flat this year.

With the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 if you take them out, but they do count. The problem is, and we've stated this a bazillion times, seven names make up 53% of the NASDAF 100. It's stupid. Now they changed it up a little, but those seven names are still worth about 45% of the NASDAF 100. Not good. For me, it's where they are. And all we can tell you is we start with Apple. And just to give you an idea, Apple, in August held right around 172, but reversed on that day.

And recently it's been holding around 173 in change. As I speak, it's down $3.80 today, which is a big move for an Apple. and it's at 172.25. So if it's stopped here, it would be at a closing low of this recent correction. And it really does drive the bus. If you look at the QQQ NASDAQ,

the old low was 354.71. It's now 354.12 a little bit below. Why are we bringing this up? A break of these support levels. brought to you by seven or eight names that have been so big in holding up the indices if they go

if we're still giving you the if if they go oh you're going to be hearing about the indices being much worse so we start with Apple that's number one then there's Amazon which held up great that cracked the 50 day moving average last week it's down another five and a half

today our Justice Department These morons who have never worked a day in their life are going after Amazon now, but everything counts. So that's deeper in its correction. Google was holding up pretty well. That cracks the 50 day today. So if the strongest ones are cracking, now the one that's really hanging in there is Facebook meta, that's hanging flat. But then you got Microsoft, which is down another six. $3.7 today. That's deeper into the correction. That's a little bit below the August lows now of 311.55.

Nvidia, which people are scratching their head. How is that stock doing what it's doing with all those good numbers? Well, it be. And let me just state for the record that was a 403 low back in early August. It just hit recently, we'll call it 410. it better hold there. It's still 18% off the highs and it got work to do. And there's Tesla. Tesla broke the 50 day easily also. If those names I just mentioned worsen, if Apple takes out,

you're going to have a deeper and more important correction of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. And to a lesser extent, the S&P, which by the way they're a big part of. To what extent we don't know. We are not like others that think their geniuses and can tell you their targets and their dates. What we just do here very well

and pretty much better than the world is get direction correct. And the direction is down. It's vicious in many area. And now we'll see if they get the big guys and I got news for you. Today, they're getting the big guys. guys.

So stay tuned. Now, I must tell you, we're very careful with our words. By the way, Dowdown 387, S&P 65, NASDAQ 215, NASDAQ 135, NASDAQ 135, transports 245. By the way, I forgot to go

over the transports. They've been busted up down to the 200th A moving average, by the way. Now, we're very careful with our words. We don't predict. We have no interest in doing what others do. Going for the big call.

We want to get the main trends right, and that's all we really have to do. What do we mean by the big call? We'll explain up next on Investor's Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast.

might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, what do I mean by the big question? call. Okay. Not going to name names. We'll name one a bit. The big call. There are people on Wall Street that have been betting for crashes for decades. Seriously, it's always crashing.

Markets always crashing. Markets always crashing. And of course, if it ever crashes, they pat themselves on the bat. But that's the broken clock. right twice a day you have a certain woman who runs funds that are down 75% in two years calling for Bitcoin to go to one million by the year 2030 I think Bitcoin's a 26,000 so that means it have to go up 37 times in six years in my eyes there's not enough rubber rubber rooms in straight jackets, but they go for the big call. Why I don't know. There are others, though, that have what I call cred. Without naming names, there are people out there calling for Tesla to go to, let's see, it's 244. I heard somebody say 500 in the next few years.

but this person, not to be named, has been with the stock and knows the company intimately since like 30 bucks and 20 bucks. So we don't want to shrug that off. And for something to go from 244 to 500 or even 1,000, how many, we've seen plenty of stocks go up fourfold, 10 fold. I haven't think we've seen things go up 37 fold in six years,

though. So the big calls. We don't do that. We're not here to call crashes and smashes. What we have told you, we went and studied the 87 crash, and we were very confident that we would have been out two months in advance. Just like our counts that have been with us, they're getting 5% on their money right now.

But every now and then we have to throw out what we call an addition. not edition, but an addition. And that is potential. You see, in a bull phase, there is zero potential for the markets to crash, unless you have some sort of really bad event that comes out of nowhere. In bare phases, that market's not soaring, there's no chance. The market has to physically turn. It's got to do something different. It's got to react better.

So what we use is the words potential of. We're just letting you know if there is any market that has potential to have a lot more downside from here. here. It's this one. Not only in the technical condition of the market, that's how many stocks are in uptrends versus downtrends, how many new highs versus new lows, how many things are broken, how far things have gone down. What is causing, what have we been saying about yields and oil? What else? Why else would there be potential for real trouble here? Well, we never got back to the old highs. Well, there's seven or eight stocks that have held up the indices.

And they're starting to get them. Well, you have this, I'm going to be diplomatic. You have this guy in the White House running a $2 trillion deficit. Like it's nothing. And as you know, we don't believe yields are reacting to inflation. we believe yields are acting to debt and deficits. And due to the fact, we've been right and everybody else has been wrong, you may want to listen.

Potential, the semiconductors have completely cracked. Potential. The financials. They're in but owned bearish market. With the regional banks, you already know about them. Potential. California's unemployment rate just went from 3.8 to 4.6 and quite the often, as California goes, the rest of the country goes.

Potential. Savings rates have plunged credit card usage of skyrocketed. Credit card interest rates have skyrocketed. The most amount of credit cards being used skyrocketed. The price for autos used and new record. The housing market stalemate because of Jay Powell and his distortions. Potential. So we're just letting you know if there's anything, any market that could get in real trouble here, I don't think it can take much.

Just letting you know. And I know. I know what you're being told. Oh, we're coming into seasonal strength. Screw that. Oh, it's October. Screw that. Oh, the Fed.

Screw him. He don't know what the hell he's doing. He's a quack. What we're just going to do for you and for us, we're going to pay attention to the market. And it's worsening pretty nastily in real time as I speak. And it's 324 p.m. We're now down 427, down 69, down 230 on the NASDAQ, 254, NASDAQ 100. Transport's 254.

And Apple down 435, Adobe down. 8, Netflix down 7, Salesforce.com.5, Oracle down 370, Microsoft 7 and change, Nvidia, 3 in change, Tesla 3 and change, Google 3 and change, Amazon, almost 6. Those guys,

well, gals, who knows what you call stocks? Those stocks have been a lifeline to the indices. They're losing, their traction. As I speak, now they have not broken that support we were telling you about vital, they're getting close. One word comes to

mind, heed, Heed, Heed. We don't tell you what to do. We don't tell you how to do it. You know where we stand, though. It is your money you get to decide. And just remember, when markets go down 99% of Wall Street will say to you, don't worry, everything's okay, it'll come back, you got to think long term. You got that? Don't worry, it'll come back.

We know PayPal has gone from $310 to $59. Sorry about that. Oh, but it'll come back. We know Citigroup is down 90% from 2008. But it'll come back with a question mark. We tell our peeps all the time. If you are able to avoid bearish phases, you are ahead of 99.999.99.9.9.

We're again avoiding what's starting to gain teeth. And we mean business. And if yields keep going up, oil prices keep going up, and the people running the show just being unmitigated doofuses, and Marxist control freaks, nothing good's going to come of it. By the way, without taking sides, I'll get to that in a minute.

Up next, we'll wind it up. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-drawing, fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today. at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Thanks for being with us today. It is 329 p.m. So we'll take you to about 337 p.m. But as I speak, Dowdown 414, S&P 69, NASDAQ 27, NASDAQ 100, 251, NASDA transports 261, and just miserable. Advanced declines puking.

And more importantly, most importantly, that big seven. We're very careful with our words here. We're pretty darn good at this. Not only in just seeing what we're seeing, but in putting out the measuring about the Big Seven versus the market, advance the clients versus the market, and we got them front and center. If the Big Seven go into bare markets, no, no.

If the Big Seven go into bare markets, the Indecese should come in. a bunch. The NASDAQ is down 10% from the highs in July's. And that's with the Big 7

based on they say bare markets are 20%. Excuse me. None are there. I do believe Apple in the 0708 bare market dropped 55, 60%. No, we're not predicting that. We're just saying, if they go into full-blown bare markets.

If. And as of this second, this second, they're acting like they're going to. And as I look at my screens in downtrends, oh, let me do it the other way. Not in down trends are a mixed bag of oils. Notice I didn't say oils. A bunch of oils have been breaking down. Uranium, coal, and a smattering of names in different sectors. And what we mean by that is, oh, let's say there's 200 stocks in retail.

Well, Costco's been pretty decently strong. That's one. That's what we mean. Aberrobby and Fitch. Very strong. That's what we mean by. a smattering. But besides that, forget about it. That's your strength. Coal, uranium, mixed bag of oils, and a smattering. That's all I got. That's all I got. And that's not good.

and even yesterday when the market bounced a little bit and finished decently on the day as I did my scans I had more stocks breaking down and for sure I'll have a bunch more more today and as we go deeper into a correction it gets tougher to turn around wish I had better news but in the news have you been reading about this Menendez guy in New Jersey. What a piece of crap. By the way, go read back other things he was accused of many years ago that they never followed through on. Dirt bag of the highest order.

Caught red-handed. And comes up with the biggest BS excuse to protect. himself. The man is a crook. He is a criminal. Wait a man, he's innocent before guilty. Oh, when you're caught with 400K gold bars, red-handed. Well, in the news, the world's biggest crypto firm melting down. We already knew about the FTX, but now something called Binance. about it in distress. Remember what he told you about crypto before anybody else? It is a bubble.

It's going to pop. It's going to pop badly. There may be some that stay around as just tradable assets. And we think what's going on with like Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum, it's owned by just the select few people that'll never sell or can't sell. But most of the crypto coins are zero. and we hope you listen. The NFTs, I read the other day about the one that bought NFT for $2 million and couldn't sell it for $50.

In the news, they're staring down. Maybe government shut down October 1st. First off, I need to let you know, don't believe the bull crap. Government never shuts down. The essentials always around. You get your Social Security checks, even though they'll scare you. the airports are going to fly, the TSA will be there. What's going to happen is some people are going to get furloughed.

They'll get their back pay. The world isn't going to end. But what will destroy us is what Joe Biden and the rest of the Democrats and Marxists and Republicans have done over the last 20-some-odd years taking us to $33 trillion a debt. Joe Biden just increased the size of government. by 50% since 2019 on his spending from 4.4 trillion in 2019 to 6-6 this year. That's the crisis, not the weather. So wish we had better news.

Ugly day. We'll see how we finish. Have a great evening. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like I do. Well, I'll tell you what I'm going to be doing tonight. I'll be hugging my father. You'll take care, everybody.

maybe we'll be back doing radio tomorrow. We'll see. If not, Adam. Peace out all. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John.

Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.