Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Downturn [03.13.2025]

Episode Date: March 13, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, I'm your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Thursday. It's March 13th. It's 2025. Wish I had better news for you. We'll talk markets in a second, a lot more. in case you don't know this is serious talk on everything that affects you

the markets the economy your job your industry doge taxes debt deficits spending scam shams corruption and tariffs which is in the lexicon now and if you do not get this radio show in your city we'll post it at gary k.com we'll also post it on our twitter feed which is now x and if you don't follow us on x you should if you like to email us all you got to do is be nice so we've got a lot of emails the last couple of days from people that are telling us about their industry, their job, their community, their city, and how's it going? Most everybody is a little bit troubled right now with what they are seeing around them and in their business. Ladies and gentlemen, it's 3.37 p.m. The market's going to close in 233 minutes,

but for the record, as I speak, the Dow's down 555 and the NASDAX down 3.30. 3.30. 345 big points on the NASDAQ. And that's with the semiconductor index only down 35. The woes me transports down another 280 as I speak. We're going to continue with our pointed comments here. We hope you are listening. As you know, we've been on a major league avoidance of stocks. The only areas we have been telling you of note is China, some of Europe, gold, which is up another 1.7% today.

A smattering of defensive names, which they couldn't hold up too long, while they are imploding, growth, tech, artificial intelligence, software, and the like. But I have to repeat some other comments. And I just want to let you know what we are seeing.

And a little bit later we'll talk about Washington and Doge and tariffs. But I want to do markets. Home Depot down another $15. today. Costco down $35 today. At New Yearly Lowe's, Target, at or near, Target, Abercrombie and Fitch, Boot Barn, Five Below, Floor and Decor, Lowe's, Lowe's, Raw Stores, Ralph Lauren, Sineet Jewelers, Sally Beauty, sketchers, under armor. They're finally getting victorious secret.

That's all retailers. But what else is retail? Airlines, they're getting them big. Hotels, they're selling them down big. Home builders,

they're whacking the home builders big. The economically sensitive stuff which we've been warning you about for a while like United Rentals and Parker Haddafin and so many others. And we always tell you the market is very good at telegraphing. Meaning the market moves and then we find out a little bit later. Oh, did I forget about Blumen brands?

I don't know why they change Albeck Steakhouse to the name Blumen Brands. Cheesecake Fackty, Cracker Barrel, Chipotle, Domino's Pizza, Dine Brands, Shake Shack, Sweet Green, Texas Roadhouse, Winkstop, Kava Group, the stock's imploding.

Those are the restaurants. And what are we hearing? Well, let's see. Walmart, they only do about $650 billion in revenue. Chief Executive Doug McMillan said, Budget pressured customers are showing stressed behaviors. They are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month because their money runs out before the month is gone.

McDonald said that the fast food industry has had a sluggish start to the year. Weak demand from low-income consumers. Dollar General on its earnings call said its customers report only having enough money for basic essentials. Costco, whose fee-paying customer base skews higher income said last week that demand has shifted toward lower-cost proteins such as ground beef and poultry. Members are still spending, but are now being very choiceful about where they spend. Cole CEO said consumers making less than $50,000 a year are pretty constrained. Macy's CEO, Tony Springs said the affluent customer that shopping Macy's is just as uncertain and as confused and concerned. Delta Airlines, American Airlines, JetBlue all cut their first quarter guidance stating something is going on with economic sentiment and consumer confidence.

City Group's analysis of U.S. credit card data or data, which is it, shows that spending has fallen across most retail categories. In the retail quarter to date spending plunged 12% and 22% on apparel and athletic footwear, respectively, by the way, Dick's sporting goods just blew up as a stock. Also, Target, foot locker, and lows of all reporting seeing weak, demand in February. We're letting you know. We're in a downturn. It's a downturn of what proportion we don't know. But the market is taking a bat out and clubbing over the head anything to do with the consumer

right now. And the worst markets are the ones that are stretched, extended, and oversold to the downside and they still go lower. So we're just letting you know what we're seeing. I have also queried some of the restaurants I go to here. And the quote from just about all of them, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what I'm getting. So we're letting you know. But something else could end up being at work.

and I'm not here to depress you, we're here to tell you the facts. It's called the wealth effect. As the market goes lower, you feel less wealthy, right? And it tends to feed on itself. Catching the drift? There's a reason why recently

the best stocks were food and beverage and tobacco and household products because those are the recession, You're going to drink your Coke. You're going to have some Hershey's. You may get some spam. You need to get soap and dishwashing powder and laundry detergent and chlorox and diapers and head and shoulders and the like. So wish we had better news. Market was telegraphing it for a bit. And now they're telling us the chieftains are now coming out and stating, what the market started telling us weeks ago. Weeks and weeks ago. How long ago was I telling you avoid most retail? I think there were like a couple of names that were strong.

Urban Outfitters and Costco was strong, but we always worried how can it trade at 60 some odd times earnings with single-digit growth? And of course it's now paying that penalty of quite the overvaluation. So bare market, bearish market, bare trend, downtrend, and everything consumer. Oh, did I tell you that I was noticing today that Group 1 auto down 10% today? I'll explain that part. On this, the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

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Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeCumpert. That's Tommyjohn.com. Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it every one. where people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, Group 1 Auto, only does 20 billion in revenues with 145 dealerships. Down 10% today. How about Asbury Automotive? That's about 17 billion in revenues. Down 6% today and was 312.1%. in January, it's 228 today.

How about Auto Nation? They do about 25 billion in revenues has gone from 198 to 157 in the last four weeks. Did you hear that? We ain't kidding. How about Lithia Motors has gone from 405 to 285.

They do 40 billion with 459 car dealerships. Damn. 52 brands of new and used cards you think they know. So we're just letting you know it's getting ickier. Where it stops don't know. You had a couple of days of outperformance by the NASDAQ types, and they're just getting smacked around today.

As I speak, it's 3.49 p.m. Facebook's down 28 bucks. Netflix is down 27 bucks. Costco 35, Apple down another eight. Remember we told you that was parking? And the big one today, Adobe, reports earnings. This is not a fly-by-night. $22 billion in revenues down $63 to $375 today. That ain't helping the software stocks today.

And then the economically sensitive stocks like, I just noticed today, Cummins, heavy duty trucks and parts and stuff has gone from 387 to 313 in three weeks the market's flushing some economic strife and notice i haven't even mentioned the financials which they came after viciously we owned some Goldman sacks and on the first sell signal we got the hell out do you know we got out about a hundred and twenty-five dollars ago little did we know. So we'll get to the final numbers in a few minutes, but we're just letting you know. We don't care what's labeled, how it's labeled. They can call it a bare market. No, it's not a bear market.

It's not down 20%. Okay. Bearish market, downtrend. Woe is me market. And let me repeat, I don't know how long it lasts. I don't know how far it goes. I don't know what tomorrow brings. there's talk of who, what, where, or why. That's important. We'll get to that in a couple of minutes. We're just letting you know. In the past, we have said to you, we think the economy is soft or softening. We have never used the word recession in a long while,

but we did say to you that we worry government is too big a part of the economy. We'll use the word downturn. We're in a downturn now. The market's screaming it. I don't know where it takes us. As always, I don't know. We just know what it looks like. We are very good at knowing what a bearish market is, a downturn is,

and then we just babysitted until the downturn hit some defense where the soldiers line up and don't let things go lower. And then we can start talking. But man, oh man, another day today where they are ripping the stuffings out of growth, tech,

software, and anything consumer related. Do you know the Hilton Hotels where it is a new yearly high like three weeks ago, it's gone from 275 to 222

and has broken shortened long-term moving averages. Marriott wasn't as strong. It's gone from 307 to 237, and even weaker was high at 168 to 121. And gold is going up. Bitcoin is going down, because Bitcoin, as we told you, is the NASDAQ.

Gold is the safety trade, not necessarily the inflation trade. So let me, 1 plus 1 equals 2. Number 1, short-term basis, I have no idea. We had two days of outperformance by the NASDAQ, and they came after it today with a fervor. And I will tell you the NASDAQ that's down 370 as I speak,

the NASDAQ 100 down 405 as I speak. That's doing it with the semiconductors. NVIDIA is up 18 cents. But that's in a bearish phase. What has me is everything consumer. Everything consumer. is being taken out in the back and smacked. Wish we had better news.

Strength today. Gold stocks. China on relative basis. Defense stocks are bouncing today. Even though Putin said, well, maybe we can talk ceasefire. As he bombs Ukraine even more. Got a couple insurance stocks up. And by the way, another almost 3 to 1 negative advance decline today.

which we don't like. New yearly highs in the market, hardly any new yearly lows. I got about 550 on the New York and NASDAQ. And let me repeat, Home Depot down almost 15 bucks. Costco down 40? They're important. Oh, and by the way, Walmart, which never will drop and go up as quick as some of these others, that just recently topped. Tomorrow's another day. but today does not look good on a resume. And I mentioned travel. I noticed booking holdings, the old price line, getting smoked. Expedia, big top in place.

So that's going on too, on top of the airlines and hotels. What do we do now? Well, we're on the outside looking in. We're just making lists. what stocks are doing their darnness to not go with the flow to the downside. And I'm not talking real defensive issues. I'm talking about growth. Not finding many. Up next, we'll get into that. And more. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour,

you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel good. better if you talk to so if in fact we're in a downturn of whatever proportion and time for the buyers of things out there including autos wait for the big deals just remember when you get downturns inventory really picks up inventories bulge and retailers of all stripes in order to move that inventory have to make nice, nice. So just let you know that. We're already seeing it.

Sing some things in auto advertising. We haven't seen the long while. Five years, zero percent. We'll give you the family discount. All that crap. And we're not ribbon them. It's a fact of life. It's about supply and demand.

What's strong, well, let me give you, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, strong as an ox. The phone stuff like T-Mobile hanging in there, even though got hit the other day. Kroger, supermarket chain, supermarkets, Albertsons, supermarkets, good relative strength. This is what happens now, as they sell the hell out of, the retail and the like. They know you still have to go to supermarkets, and that is another recession-resistant place. What isn't recession-resistant, again, is travel.

They call it discretionary spending. If you look at the X-L-Y, it's the Consumer Discretionary Sector Index ETF. It's gone from 235 to 192, since, let's see, one, two, three, four, five, six weeks. That's eight and thirty-five is forty-three. That's about eighteen percent in short order. Ouch. Ouch.

Ouch. Now I do want to let you know I am troubled by a few things. As I have told you, with the president, I love what he wants to do with tax cuts. I absolutely love what he's done at the border. I mean, he has stopped the influx. I love the fighting against racism and Jews on campus. I love Doge, though I have said to you, they've got to slow that role. You can't fire nuclear analysts and then hire them back three days later because, oops, we need them.

But this tariff thing irks me. And I've been asked, do I think it's the tariff thing that's hurting things? I think to an extent, yes. I don't know. I can't. There's no way of putting your thumb on it. But yes, I do believe to a certain extent. But I also believe a certain extent of the Doge, which has to be done.

Just remember, con artist Biden set us up for the kill. making us a government-centric country. That's got to change. We can't continue. But I want to take this time to really explain tariffs better on one of Trump's tweets. Because another threat happened today, and this is not a rib on the president, we want to give you an understanding of how these things potentially work. and why on the other side of this that it can work out good or it can be not that good?

So Donald Trump, this is from him. The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the world, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, not true, has just put a nasty 50% tariff on whiskey. And of course, that was in retaliation. Here's the threat. If this tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% tariff

on all wine, champagne and alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries. this will be great for the wine and champagne businesses in the U.S. So let's talk the potentially good side of this. So let's say you have whoever is buying a thousand bottles of French wine for whatever. Maybe he's got a couple of liquor stores, whatever it may be. thousand bottles and he pays $50 a bottle and sells it for let's say 80 I'm just giving you a number well if a 200% tariff is put on that that means that person or business buying for 50 bucks is now paying

$150 for those bottles of French wine. And at that point, that person or business has to say, oh, I'm screwed. Why? Because they were buying it for 50, selling it, I'm giving you a number 80. You now have to pay 150. You think the consumer's going to come back and pay 200? Hell no. So that person makes the decision, I'm not selling French wines. And I'm going to market wines from Sonoma County in California.

More business U.S., less business from France. That's the good side of it. What's the problem? Do you know what the problem is? It's not that simple. Most businesses like that just cannot automatically turn the lights off. are on. Oh, we're just not going to go buy those and I'll sell them. What if you are somebody who gets all their product from France or Italy or wherever that you're putting these tariffs on?

You're screwed if you can't adjust. And guess what happens to business at that point in time? So I gave you an easy example. Okay, okay, we'll just sell American wine. It's okay, got it. It just not that easy overall. It just isn't. And therein lies the problem. It's not easy for small business that doesn't have their own big supply.

Walmart can adjust a lot better than Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob in their small business. You got me? So definite component of these tariffs that just don't end. And the threats, they just don't end.

They keep coming and coming and coming and coming. It's a new one every day, and I think that's a problem. Here's another thing I've seen. And I wish I had their ear. The administration is out telling people, don't worry about the market. You shouldn't even pay attention to it. What?

Ladies and gentlemen, it's the stupidest thing an administration can say to a market, to people where the market is just cascading to the downside. Oh, don't worry about it. Do you know I am getting emails right now from people that absolutely love this president? And they are cursing him out right now? They're blaming him rightfully or wrongfully. Don't worry about the market. Don't even pay it. I heard Excuse me. One of them say, don't even pay attention. Pay attention. Actually, I don't have to tell you that. You are paying attention. I'm getting loaded with emails. What do you think? When is it going to stop? What's going on? Why? All I can tell you is a very good technician of the market and it topped out a while ago. We took every bit of action as the market came in. And we'll see what tomorrow brings. Market is very stretched, extended, and oversold.

Due to bounce at any time, it didn't happen today. Up next. More on these markets. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative

horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast, might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Bester's Edge. With Gary Kulp. By the way, I do have to mention one other thing. So there is now a threat. There's now a threat from the president on wines and champains and alcoholic products from the European Union. What do you think all these liquor stores and just all these zillions of people that sell this stuff on a retail basis, not a retail basis?

What do you think they're doing today? you know what the answer is? Don't know. It so's confusion. Which again is another issue out there right now. On top of, yeah, don't even pay attention

to the market. What? I don't even think they would listen to me, but I really wish I was an advisor to this administration. A lot of this would not be happening. Seriously. Tesla, that's Elon Musk. It's not saying Elon Musk, but Tesla as a company has warned President Trump that tariffs can hurt, could hurt U.S. electric vehicle production and global competitiveness. So even that's coming out. And in case you don't know, Tesla's stock has crashed from 488 to 240 in 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2 and a half months.

So a lot of moving parts. I have no idea about tomorrow. As of today, there has been no change in stance on, hey, maybe, you know, this is not a good thing. Maybe we should just lower the temperature, back up, back away, think a little bit differently, nothing. nothing and the market is telegraphing and indicating a downturn now when i do my webcast tonight i will be stunned at how far down big gigantic great retail consumer stocks are doing right now and of course the other issue is the concentration in the market. Do you know that a recent ETF, an exchange traded fund, came out called the top U.S. 20 stocks. You ready? It is an ETF that mirrors the 20 largest

U.S. companies by market capitalization. You ready for this? Those 20 stocks have 24 trillion in market capitalization. The other 480 in the S&P 500 have just 29.8 trillion. Concentration. That's the other part of the equation. So no doge moment today. What I really want to talk about also is the ass clowns that are destroying Tesla cars and going to Tesla dealerships and, you know, shooting into the windows, these ass clowns that are at Trump in New York City, they all went in. I don't know how security let a thousand people in there, praising Hamas and cursing Trump out. Isn't it amazing these people that produce nothing, provide nothing, do nothing, create nothing, and will never do anything for anybody except hold up signs and praise terrorists and murderers and rape. and piss all over Elon Musk because he wants to get government in check.

Because Biden and Trump before him and Obama before him and Bush before him set us on a path to take us to 37 trillion of debt. Why aren't they cursing out the corrupt leftists that took our tax dollars for climate and nobody knows where any of the money is. And nobody in the media are even asking them, which is even sicker. As I said yesterday, imagine the journalists find out theft by political class, by taking taxpayer dollars funneled through the Biden administration for climate, and they know nothing about climate, never did anything for climate. And right before

Biden's going out of business, they started these corporations that don't have to pay taxes in order to get all these funds. And you would think ABC and NBC and CBS and CNN, holy crap,

let's go after them. They had Stacey Abrams on MSNBC, this moron. Chris Hayes was his name. I think that's his name. Do you think he asked her? How much money did you make? How much money did you pocket from this?

No! He let him blame Trump! Which means we're still in the freaking cesspool. I hope you're doing your homework. We'll keep watching the market. We had two days of outperformance in the NASDAQ and they just stuck the middle finger back out at it today. Maybe tomorrow's another day.

As I said earlier, you know what we really are doing right now is we are just trying to list those great growth names that are holding up the best, but I got news for you. There ain't nothing holding up. Anything above the 50-day moving average is a big win. They're just not much. Wish I could tell you there was some. My favorite name is Spotify, but I ain't going near it. Do you know why? Because the market.

It's a bearish phase of unknown price and time. And what we'll do is we will be patient. We will wait. Let the market play some defense. Show some defense. And then we'll take it from there. At the close today, Dowdown 537, NASDAQ down 345. Maybe tomorrow's a better day.

We'll see. Have a great evening. Drive carefully. when you get home, do like we do. It's simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well. Thanks for joining. By the way, I'll be on Fox Business Network tomorrow at 3 p.m. Check it out. Good night, all. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeCumpert.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.