Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Earnings Earnings Earnings

Episode Date: February 2, 2023

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's February 2nd, 2020. And as you know, we cover a lot of things here. The markets, the economy. jobs, everything emanating out of D.C. But there are days where we just get very, very, very, very specific on things. And we just want to come out of the box today.

First off, we pre-tape the show after the market closes. But today we're pre-taping it starting at about 351. So there's nine minutes to go. And after the close, Amazon, Google, Qualcomm, 28% of the NASDAQ 100 could move the dial. At least they can to a certain extent, but other things going on today that we think are in stone for now. What do we mean by that?

We've always explained to you when a move is made and a confirmation is made and a whole area of a market makes a move. it's usually sticky. It's usually meaningful. There is a reason why in recent days in a couple of weeks, we've been telling you about how technology is coming on, turning this, that, and the other thing. We'll get into that in a little bit.

I want to start out with specifically telling you and repeating to you because these areas we have mentioned before what you need to avoid or you're going to lose a bunch of cake in a market where there are areas that are working. So we'll get into the market wrap after the close. We'll get into the aftermarket because Apple, Amazon, Google, and Qualcomm, Starbucks, a few others.

We'll get into a market where, as I speak, the Dow's down 55, the NASDAX up 360. That's 360. All the institutional money pouring into the worst areas of 22 and coming out of some of the best areas of 22. And again, if you ain't in the right place, you're getting crushed. So let me start off with repeating. We have been telling you recently, oil stocks, energy stocks. We have deemed them as topping out. And as you know, we just read the temperature of the market,

the patterns they project, the patterns they portray, the patterns that they move. The stair steps, oil stocks crumbling today. Hescorp was at a new yearly high five days ago at 160. It's 138, breaking the 50-day moving average. For example, I don't need to go through other names, just letting you know, oil and energy. Next, we have been warning you about the managed care slash HMO stocks. They held up so well in the bare market, they're getting crushed now.

We deem them as topping out over the past bunch of weeks. They are getting crushed. We don't need to know why. We actually don't care why. United Health, with the Dow only down 50, is about 160-some-odd Dow points to the downside. So that's doing a lot of heavy lifting to the downside. And the rest of that group, Eumanna down 23, Molina Health down 8, Cigna down 12, Elevents, down 18.

These are big moves to the downside. What else have we told you recently that we were wary of? Consumer staples. Except for Hershey's today that reported earnings, they're getting mauled. Now, when we use the word mold on consumer staples, it's a lot different than technology getting mauled, but they're getting hit. Another avoid. Recently, we told you earnings reports. Caterpillar, down another five.

Guess what that is done to the weak stock deer, down 20 today. We warned you about big biotech. A bunch of them are breaking down. Not the small names, not the no-sales biotechs, but big biotech. It's an avoid. We've warned you with the staples, part of that is the drug stocks. Eli Lilly down 12 today, for example. Recently, Ab V crumbled.

What else? In the Dow? Amgen, Caterpillar Chevron, which is an oil stock, Honeywell, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, McDonald's, Procton, Gamble, another staple, Travelers and Insurance stock, which I'll get to in a second, and United Health, which we mentioned. that's 11, 3, 4, 5, that's 11 stocks in the Dow that act very poorly, not to mention a few others that are not so great, but these things have been pretty much topping out. And of course, today, at the close, the Dow was down 40, but the NASDAQ up 384. And I have to add a couple of other things here. Some insurance stocks. Look, Toppy, I've been asking the question, why is travel?

toppling, well, they're topping a bunch of other insurance stocks here now also. And again, when we talk insurance, we're not talking about stocks that are going to crash, crash. They're low beta, but an area that's got some problems. So we've got some areas here. You need to be careful about. I'm not done. China. as we have told you

Chinese stocks have been with the bid they may be topping out for now which is not a bad thing because in bull markets I better use a different word

how about pulling back I think they may be starting pulling back how's that for a term so we just wanted to start out and let you know, there's a bunch of areas that are bearish. Waste management, bearish. Drug stores, bearish. Oh, and by the way, Walgreens is in the Dow. But CVS is much worse than Walgreens. Defense stocks, we warned you about. Defense stocks, bearish while there's a war going on.

So we just had to start this way to get the bad out of the way. And if you ever want to figure out what we're talking about, go sign up at convictionleaders.com at our website, garykagg.com. Get one month free. We do webcast every night showing you this, teaching you this. Not handing you the fish, but teaching you how to fish. it is by no accident we are able to tell you where the bull is and where the bear is. It is not by accident.

It is not by accident we were all over the bear market. None of it by accident. So we're just letting you know where the bears are. And then there's the bull side. Throughout all of 2021, we were walking you through the major tops in software, technology, internet, the arc funds, and the like. For months and months, they were teasing. They had rallies up in the bare markets, but nothing like this.

On January 6th, feels like looks like a lot of things change, and all I can tell you, is of this second, a real potential that all of them, let's say just about all of them, have completed very important bottoming formations to go higher. How much higher? Don't know. How long? Don't know. Which will be the strongest? Don't know. We know which ones are the strongest right now, but we don't know if that continues. But we're just letting you. You know, man, what a change of complexion. Up next, lots more. Earnings reports.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of... Quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again, to Investor's Edge.

So you may not know this, but we tape the first segment before the market closed. Then we stop because I had to do television with the greatest journalist on earth, Neil Cavuto. And by the way, I say journalist, not just business journalist. I love unbiased journalists. journalism in a business that doesn't have a lot of unbiased people anymore. Brett Baer, another one of my favorites. There's a list, but it's much shorter than it used to be. Anyway, so I got finished, and we're back now, and guess what?

All the biggies have reported. And as we have stated for you, very simply, between Apple, Amazon, Google, Little lesser extent Qualcomm, we're talking about 28% of the NASDAQ 100. So that will affect things. I can tell you today, the NASDAQ 100 was up 440 points today. That's about 3.4%. In the aftermarket, we're down a little bit. We're going to give back. Let me see what we're going to give back. We're going to give back half. How's that? Why? Apple. Apple closed at, look at me, the reporter here. 150.82, up $5.39. I've got it at $144.55. So right now it's down $6.27.

cents. That's a big move. Apple is 16 billion of market cap every dollar. That's how big it is. Of course, they haven't done the conference call, but we're hearing Tim Cook trying to put lipstick on a little bit of a pig in that earnings were down 10 percent revenues were down five, and I think they missed a little bit on iPhones. So that doesn't help if nothing changes. Amazon reported Amazon was up seven and three quarters today. Huge move to 112.91. As I speak, it's 10847, down about 450, but still up three and change for the day, including earnings. But that doesn't help either. That's going to pull things back. Apple and Amazon, I believe, are, actually, I think Microsoft is won. Apple, two, Amazon 3, as far as influence NASDAQ 100. Google closed today. up 730 to 107-74. I've got it at 103.50.

So that's down about four and a quarter, but up three for the day. So, yeah, we're going to pull back tomorrow. But I'm not sure it's the biggest of deals. These things have had a decent move off the lows recently. We'll get more from tomorrow's action, the real action. but in the aftermarket, those three. Qualcomm, less so, was down $2.61 today. They missed, but originally it was up three bucks.

I got it down another buck 50. So that doesn't help either. Last night, Facebook, Meta, finished up $32. No, let me take that back. $35.65. $18877. But finished $8.5 off of the high today. It was that much stronger. It is down another three bucks in the aftermarket in sympathy. You know, biggies go down. Another biggie will drop also. So we'll see what tomorrow brings. Again, we have the conference calls. You know, they put spins on things. By the way, Amazon, when they first announced was as low as one.

104, it's 108, still down foreign change in the aftermarket. And I don't want to, Apple missed by 7 cents, by the way, missed on revenues on iPhones, missed on the max. Everything missed expectations. But for the day is down 60 cents, including today's move. What does that tell you? Not so bad. but from the highs today not so great

I do want to also mention got to mention a couple of the things names you may never have heard of one's called bill.com and why do I bring it up because this is one of those names that has had a move off the lows recently computer software financial software and stuff

closed at 129 today it has gone from 100 to 129 in six days it's down $28 bucks in the aftermarket. So that's a give back. Symbol Team, name of the company is Atlassian, another one of these software names that has had a good move off the lows. In fact, well, let me just say it was up 12 today.

It's down $23 in the aftermarket. So a couple names that have been pretty decent with the rest of those names, they're getting whacked in the aftermarket. We'll have to see whether that spreads to other things that have been pretty darn strong, by the way. And as mentioned, listen, whatever I tell you here, Apple, they're all going to have conference calls. I can tell you Apple originally was down to 142, down 8 and change. Right now it's 1.40, it's down 5 and is up for the day, just 40 cents. This is on missing everything.

And why would that be again? Tim Cook's going to say everything's great going forward, and the market's probably going to believe it. I have to mention Ford. That's been coming up. It's down 6% in the aftermarket. So that's not great news for tomorrow. I have to mention, well, the rest, Starbucks,

down 4% in the aftermarket. Cirrus Logic 3%, sketches 3%, microchip 3%. So you got some movers to the downside. And we'll see what the overnight brings. Remember, this can all change with words, thoughts. And again, Apple was at 142 a few minutes ago. It's at 145.90. So we'll see how it plays out.

We'll come back in tomorrow. The QQQ is the NASDAQ 100 just rallied a buck off of Apple rallying a little bit. how much influence it has, but still down a good amount in the aftermarket. Of course, we have a long evening. So let me get back on point. I started out with man, oh man, there's a bunch of areas topping out and topping out pretty good. But the worst areas of 22, right now in the best areas of 23. Will they keep it up? Well, couple of names in the aftermarket, not so happy. I will talk more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors add. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual

Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Agents who are realtors do more than open doors.

They analyze market trends, interest rates, comps. They can tell you about flood zones, mixed use zones, and decode acronyms like HOA, APR, MLS. They connect you to lawyers, contractors, even Phil, the Sewer Scope guy. They negotiate, coordinate, advocate for you, close the deal with you, and hand the keys to you. They bring you home. Realtor's are members of the National Association of Realtors, right by you. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next, destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. Hello. I really can't tell you Amazon's numbers. You know, when some of these companies report numbers, Einstein and Stephen Hawking couldn't figure them out. Unfortunately, a lot of technology companies, they announce what is known as non-gap, which means whatever we think we should report. A little sarcasm there. But we hate companies non-gap. And just a ton of technology. We'll see how those. Alphabet, Google, missed by 14 cents.

Advertising dropped 3.6%. And as we stated, Google in the aftermarket is down. Only three in change. And is nicely up from recent move. So we're going to open lower tomorrow. If nothing changes, I don't think it's that much of a biggie. What I'll be watching closely is what we call in sympathy. because a lot of these software names have been coming off the lows.

I want to see if in sympathy. So I'm looking at Amazon numbers. They don't look that great. But Amazon just broke out of range at $100,000. Closed at $1.13. If they were importing earnings, I would have bought it moving above $100, but I can't. But it's $109 in the aftermarket. Whoopee.

Wish I owned it. We'll see what tomorrow brings. So again, the big story is an unbelievable two-way tape where bull and bare markets side by side and a change. Just remember the managed care stocks held up great in the bear market. They're getting crushed as technology comes out of the bear and is acting better. Oil's had their day and that's oil prices, of course. And they're done for now.

Notwithstanding, you do know, If OPEC announces something overnight, anything's possible, but leave no doubt this has been going on for weeks now. We're more and more names in the oil complex have topped out, and a lot of them have been busting up pretty good. So stay in gear. Today was an amazing day for the NASDAQ. A confirmation day for a lot of names turning up that next stair step. Does that give them a right to stick and work? When it's all of them, usually, I'm going to give you the word usually, it does.

Notwithstanding earnings reports, which without a doubt will change the playing field to a certain extent. Without a doubt. Again, we have two blowups in the aftermarket on two names that have been acting well. I think maybe I see a third blow up, but I can't. tell because there's a big spread on the stock so I'm not even going to mention it so today's market wrap which has nothing to do with tomorrow's market wrap is brought to you by investment dash models.com that's Jim Rohrabak one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market

with his proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models.com Dow was down 39 NASDAQ 384 NASDAQ 100 up 440 NASDAQ if nothing changes I think is going to be down about 180 tomorrow, which after being up 380, not a biggie, but we'll take it day by day, little by little piece by piece inch by inch. And now a lot of the biggies have reported. There's not much left on the biggie front. There are more names that are of import. Hey, tomorrow, regenerant pharmaceuticals are very important biotech. Next week, there'll be more. So stay tuned.

It's going to be fun. But leave no doubt. Tides be a turning. We usually tell you we have no clue about tomorrow, but if nothing changes, NASDAQ will give back some in the morning. And we'll see. Now I want to talk about conflicting signals. We do have to talk to the economy.

Three to four months ago, we were saying we're really worried. Savings rates plunging. Credit card usage skyrocketing. The market acts like crap. Since then, a couple of European markets at New Yearly highs. Since then, auto dealerships have come straight up into New Yearly High. highs, housing stocks straight up into new yearly highs. Would that be happening with a recession coming on? Now you do know we believe there's big trouble coming on sooner

rather than later because of what they're doing to us. But right now with those stocks doing what they're doing, I'm not so sure. W.W. Granger today, you know what they do? Tools and lighting and plumbing. It's up 77 bucks, 13% on earnings. If we're going into recession, would that be happening? And I say that, we've had some bad numbers on services. We've had bad numbers on manufacturing. We have a gargantuan inverted yield curve, which pretty much has predicted every recession. That's what we mean by conflicting signals. We'll just pay attention to the market. The bears have remained bearish. The end of the world's coming. We'll just pay attention to the market and the earnings and the earnings reactions. And let's hope this continues because technology

leads the market, both up and down. If I had to talk just fundamentals of the technology stocks, I'd say we'd be crashing. That's how bad some of the earnings reports are. Right now, the market couldn't give a hoot. I would suggest also the semiconductors will probably be down also with tech a little weak in the aftermarket, and now Apple's pulling back a little bit more. But no biggie. Not the biggest deal.

It's had a decent move off the lows recently. And as always, if anything changes, we will let you know. And man, oh man, there'll be a lot going on. I can't wait to scan this bad boy tonight. And tomorrow, I'm going to say it's going to be quite the interesting day. And we say that because software has been leading up and you got a couple that are gagging in the aftermarket. And the question is, or others is going to follow.

answer is too early to tell yields were flat today dollar was up strong so gold came down some of the crypto names have been going in fuego and we're still getting what I call a little bit of I take that back a bunch of froth we just want you to be careful we just want you to be careful you got that There are names that people talk about on the verge of bankruptcy. Carvanna hit 20 bucks today. It was up seven bucks. Finished up 69 cents. That's what we mean by.

You've got to be careful. Bedbath and Beyond has been rallying in the last two days. What? They're shutting more stores. They can't pay their debt. I gather, and this is just an opinion, odds favor bankruptcy, which means the stock price is wiped out. But people are speculating in the stock. That's not good news.

Remember, froth and speculation, bad. We don't want to see froth in speculation. We want it rung out. And it just feels like it's come back too fast. received 100 emails today on Facebook. I don't have an opinion here. I did not buy any today. It hit a high of 197, closed at 188 and change. I got it at 185.90 in the aftermarket. And their earnings and sales stink. But they're buying back a ton of stock. 10% of their market cap. Now, I'm not sure if that's what did the trick or not. Just in

do anything with it yet today. But we'll watch it. Up next, now we'll figure it out. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

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You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. In the news,

anybody know who Charlie Munger is? He is the partner of Warren Buffett. He has been one that doesn't pull any punches that has been ripping the stuffings off of the crypto business. I can't even mention the word he used to describe the crypto business. And like Moa, have been completely right about the crypto business, as I have stated to you, 90% of the coins would drop 90% of more with most going to zero, and it's exactly what happened. There are a few left.

They're being speculated in, again. He has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. Go check it out. It's entitled, Why America Should Ban? crypto. Go read it. Go read it. And as always, you get to decide. We're happy that he agrees with by the way. He's been saying it all along just like we have. It's just a bubble. It's just a bubble. In the news, I had to mention this. As you know, the utter hypocrisy from people that get paraded in front of us as being important.

You know, we're not important. They are because, A, maybe they're on TV and have radio. Oops. But you know me. I don't think I'm important at all. And people that know me know that. I'm always amazed when somebody comes up to me and wants to take a picture. I'm utterly amazed at the utter hypocrisy of so much that's out there. I just had to let you know, just a one that showed up, which is not the biggest of deal, but pretty much speaks volumes about what's wrong with a lot of the system. A New York University professor is out telling parents, don't go to private school. You shouldn't go to private school. It's wrong. It's bad. It's terrible. Now, this idiot, this moron sends our kids to private school. What? You get where I'm coming from? This is an education professor. And last I look, they're important. They're talking to your kids. They're teaching your kids. This goes under the same heading of Al Gore and Bill Gates and Leo DiCaprio and the rest of these hypocrites telling us what we have to do for the climate while they're flying private. What the hell is with that? And you need to know, they don't even give a crap about it.

They'll flaunt it and shoot the middle finger back at us. They don't care. We're just imps. We're the little people. So I wanted to read that to you because it's just part of, you've got to be kidding me. In the news, I just wanted to mention something called Celsius. It's a crypto firm. They use customer funds to prop up their own tokens. Let's see if

anybody goes to jail. Had to mention that. As we told you at the end of the road of these bubbles, there'll be some jail time for people because there are a bunch of bad people out there. I had to mention Joe Biden. Do you know that yesterday he took a picture? in an $80,000 Hummer electric vehicle, telling people they need to buy electric vehicles, and don't worry, we'll give you a tax credit. I don't even know what to tell you. I don't even know what to tell you.

He don't care what he looks like. An $80,000 car. Can you afford an $80,000 car? And in the news, Ilahan Omar was kicked out of the committee, whatever the hell it was. The Foreign Affairs Committee, I'm thrilled. This anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, anti-Jew racist, bigot piece of crap is out, should be out. And of course, the Dems are all upset even though they kicked a bunch of Republicans out of committees also.

Again, how do we get the $32 billion in debt? Both parties. But, unfortunately, there are some Cretans in the Republican Party that, are on committees and have been given committee assignments when they should not even be running a freaking lemonade stand you know the names i mention them a dozen times it's how you get the 32 trillion of debt ninkum poops in dc in both parties and i love when the marxist party is all up in arms all upset how dare you how dare you how dare you how dare you how dare you how dare you how dare you how dare you you know what I say?

Kiss off, pals. Just like, unfortunately, the Republicans defend some racist in their party, they're defending a racist in their party. I think I have one more blow-up in the aftermarket synaptics. S-Y-N-A. I think that is a electronic products company down 10% in the aftermarket. Their earnings were down 83%. So what's going to be interesting tomorrow to see

the reaction to some of these earnings. Why? Because the big movers have been these things off the lows, this nascent rally that has gained some teeth here in recent days. Remember, in the long run, it is earnings. That'll be the driving force behind the moves. If they can't grow their earnings, they're all going to hit a wall. They're all going to get hit hard if their earnings are down. It's the way it is. Tonight's webcasts. We're going to separate the good from the bad. Auto dealers at new highs, I mean, they're vertical recently. Some of the transports vertical.

Housing, new highs? Recession? Depression? Not yet. No chance. That's how things work. No chance. We'll let you know when. That all said, you have a great evening and drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. you hug your children. They'll feel better. You'll feel better. Tomorrow is Friday. I will be on with Charles Payne. Normally, Cavuto on Friday, tomorrow, Charles Payne, 2 p.m. Hour, Fox Business Network. Don't miss it. And same time tomorrow for this wonderful show. Have a great one, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Did I say, don't forget to hug your children? If I did, here you go. If I did, I did it twice. Have a great one. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to Pam, episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges world The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital1.com for details.