Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Earnings yuck! [10.31.2024]

Episode Date: October 31, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/...

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 For delicious meals, you could go out to eat or spend hours in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious, with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Starting point is 00:00:32 Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, October 31st, 2024. It's Halloween.
Starting point is 00:00:58 I wish I can say the same for the market. Anyway, I hope you're having a good day. It is Thursday. Let's see. We have Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday is the election. But interesting, I'm reading, is my right in saying there's like 55 million votes already in? Wow. Anyway, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, and it was not a good day today.
Starting point is 00:01:24 The economy. Your job, your industry, the Morlocks in D.C., the election. I was wrong on the Yankees. I came out yesterday and said, I think, you know, I threw a, out there, they're going to win the next four, and they just gave the way the game last night. Here, Dodgers, we're going to let you win. Anyway, that's what happened last night.
Starting point is 00:01:47 But I have a bigger fish to fry today. And in case you don't know, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. Just go there, put our name and all that fun stuff. And you like to email me, just be nice. Because we are nice back.
Starting point is 00:02:06 No, really, as we say to you, there's so much crap going on, ladies and gentlemen, out there. There's so much video of just, there are people knocking down Trump signs, walking onto the yards and knocking down Harris signs, people yelling at each other. What the hell's going on, ladies and gentlemen? It's so weird. as we've been saying to you, we have complete respect any way you go, as long as you live in the rule of law, and you're a Mets fan.
Starting point is 00:02:49 I do want to bring something up as we've been telling you. We think if the election was held, and actually the election is being held now, we think Trump is winning. And something I noticed big time in the last couple of days that if you are a big Harris fan, you may want to send a message to them because I have noticed,
Starting point is 00:03:14 big time noticed, that she and he keep talking change. We're going to change. We're going to change. Change, change. They've said the word a hundred times. She's been at the White House.
Starting point is 00:03:36 it's into the fourth year. She's been there. So are they trying to tell us things have sucked for the last three plus years? Because they've been telling us for three plus years, things are terrific. Things are fabulous. Of course, the border was secure and the inflation was transitory. Little sarcasm. But I'm just letting you know, she's out there talking about how she's,
Starting point is 00:04:08 here to change things and I don't think she gets it I really don't she's the incumbent she's not the newbie and she's treating herself like the newbie instead of the incumbent and interesting the other part of the equation she is not talking about the last three and a half years anything good that they did have you seen any of that I heard her say something about inflation's down? And then a reporter came back, but we're paying 20 some odd percent more. She's not talking inflation anymore. That's why I think Trump's got this. And he's stepping on his own. Today he was out today saying, China's paid us hundreds of billions of dollars. That's a lie. No, they haven't. So he's added again. And if he wins, I expect the same
Starting point is 00:05:05 thing. Just hope low taxes, less regulations get the hell out of the way. That's what we want to see. And then don't do much else. But he's just added again today. But I must admit, the guy is not dumb. The garbage truck thing, the McDonald's thing, that's brilliance. Whether it's his idea or one of his advisors, that's brilliance. and you know it's brilliant because the left is all pissed off about it and saying how bad it was. No, it's brilliant. But anyway, back on point, I really do believe he's winning the election. The Republicans will have the Senate just because go look at the reason why they have no senators up except Rick Scott in Florida, I believe, and he's going to win. They're going to win a test their seat.
Starting point is 00:06:00 they're going to get a mansion seat in the Senate the house though i have no freaking clue we'll see and you know that's that and now we segue i'd like to say good things about the market but when i'm not having a good day that means the market's not having a good day because we own leading stocks and leading groups fortunately we've had a lot of cash and very small positions as Microsoft really took some things down today. We already knew a bunch of the semis have been weak. Now Microsoft down $26 as I speak,
Starting point is 00:06:45 and by the way, the market's going to close in a couple of minutes. Now, you may say, well, all right, it's down 5.78%. I've seen much worse. And you're right. But when you're a mega cap, and I mean mega cap, there's 7 billion shares outstanding, if I'm correct. So 7 billion shares outstanding. 7.4 billion, 7.4 times 26.
Starting point is 00:07:17 It's down 192 billion of market cap today is Microsoft. And it's taken down Oracle, which, by the way, we own a little piece of. And the rest of the semis. and as I speak with the market closing soon, the NASDAQ's down almost 500. I'm not making that up. That means we're talking 2.5, 2.6, 2.7%. Am I right in saying that?
Starting point is 00:07:47 Yeah. Something in that range. That means your stocks will be down 4, 5, 6, 7, 8%. Very rough day. There are winners on earnings, though. But man, oh man, I just scanned. I just screamed. And they're just a lot of stocks that are cracking.
Starting point is 00:08:15 And I want you to harken back to last week when two days, we had these three to one negative advanced decline days. And I was very worried about those days. That it can lead to something. And I got news for you. At the close today, Dowdown 378, S&P 108, NASDAQ 512, NASDAQ 512, NASDAQ 100, 497. The SMA conductor index down 207.
Starting point is 00:08:43 We're waiting for Apple and Amazon, by the way. But the story today was Microsoft down, looks about $27. And basically what they said was, well, we've been grown between 15, 18 percent sales. We're going to be 10. Their Azure product, Azure or Azure or whatever, it's cloud. computing, they lowered those numbers. And that's the story. And it roughed up tech.
Starting point is 00:09:18 And as I go through my list of just a lot of damage, and we'll see what Amazon brings, we'll see what Apple brings. The first thing I got on Amazon right now, closed at 186. Oh, that's lighten up like a pinball, machine so I can't tell you. Let's wait. By the way, Amazon just went, moved 12 bucks in the aftermarket. No, not kidding. It's the weirdest thing. So they must have reported and we'll see
Starting point is 00:09:55 what happens. We'll let you know. It was down $6.60 on the day and we'll see what the aftermarket has to bring. It's lighten up like a pinball machine. Apple won't report for about a half hour. But overall, let me give you a few others. Meta. So we had a position in Meadow. We sold down half yesterday. Right before earnings, it was down $26 today. We're still up.
Starting point is 00:10:29 And we have big gains from the year, but just a very tough day. So you got Amazon, excuse me, Meta, Microsoft, two of the big names, get squash today. And you've already had a lot of semiconductors squashed. We'll see what Tamara brings. As I said, Amazon reported, that's an important name. And right now it's up in the aftermarket. Well, it was down six and a half on the day, and now on the day it's showing up three, two.
Starting point is 00:11:03 So it's up in the aftermarket. Up next, we'll cover more of these markets. They were ugly today. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,
Starting point is 00:11:40 specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.
Starting point is 00:12:04 If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 8-8-8-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you
Starting point is 00:12:42 could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.
Starting point is 00:13:19 We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script. a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. All right, quick quiz for the hiring managers out there. What's worse?
Starting point is 00:13:46 Being understaffed or being poorly staffed? Well, that's a trick question, because both are recipes for chaos. Either way, just say to yourself, this is a job for indeed sponsored jobs. You'll get matched with candidates that meet the skills, certifications, and everything else you're looking for. Or go a different way and get no.
Starting point is 00:14:05 No traction. Seriously, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95% more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs. It really is a no-brainer. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed's sponsored jobs.
Starting point is 00:14:27 And listeners of this show will get a $75-sponsored job credit to help your job get the premium status it deserves at Indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? This is a job for Indeed's sponsored jobs. Success starts with your drive.
Starting point is 00:14:49 An American public university is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire. APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
Starting point is 00:15:24 You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today
Starting point is 00:15:49 So just You know I wish I had a lot to tell you here Intel just reported But what we do is up Two bucks in the after market We'll throw them a party As we said
Starting point is 00:16:04 Amazon Beat By a little Actually beat on earnings Pretty decent Little bit on revenues They're seeing Revenues
Starting point is 00:16:17 going forward. Whoa. Operating, yeah, it looks like operating income better than expected for quarter three. So Amazon for today, all day is up five bucks to 198 in the aftermarket. It was down six, so it's up 11 in the aftermarket. Maybe that helps a little bit, but just very roughed up. And as I go through stocks, I can tell your names that you know. know, as I mentioned, Microsoft down $26.6 today.
Starting point is 00:16:55 And the problem is a deceleration of earnings and sales. And to have a 10% revenue growth, when you already do 200 and some odd, 250 billion revenues is actually good. but the expectations of 15, 16, 17, 18, and that's what happened in Microsoft. So the stock now is at the low end of range, and it's trading where it was back in January, and is now about 60, I'll call it 13, 14 percent off the highs. They got to meta also today, Facebook down. If I can get the number right here. Yeah, I'll find it. $26 today. 4%, not the end of the world, but when your mega caps, 4% is pretty loud.
Starting point is 00:17:54 Nvidia, they hit for $6.5 bucks. The recent try to breakout has failed this second, maybe another day. I do want to mention that I was sent and I verified. I don't know everything. So I have to verify things. That 11% of sales, and I should be careful about this. I verified it, but I'm going to double and triple verify it. How's that? That super micro, the stock that has been squashed, and by the way, was down another four bucks today to $29. after dropping yesterday like 30% because the auditor said,
Starting point is 00:18:41 go screw, they're 11% of Nvidia's business. Now, we'll find out what that means eventually. What else today? And just I'm throwing out some names because I'm going to mention the names that were strong. Uber Down 9% today They reported good numbers
Starting point is 00:19:11 But they said something about how many going forward That's broke down today Eli Lilly Was down 50 in change yesterday After being down 100 in change Down 17 today So following to the downside And that's one of those names
Starting point is 00:19:30 That we kind of question based on how long are people going to stay on these drugs? And what about, we always think about what about? AMD squashed yesterday more today, caterpillar, squashed yesterday, more today, intercontinental exchange, squash today on earnings. Just a lot of stocks. Let me draw it for you on radio. Draw a line horizontal on a sheet of paper.
Starting point is 00:20:10 And just scribble above that line a little bit. Just scribble a bit horizontally. Or maybe a little diagonally from left up to the right. You got that? Now stop and take a line and go straight down. and break the line that you drew horizontal. That's what a lot of stocks have been doing over the last week. Just letting you know.
Starting point is 00:20:50 And some important ones. A bunch of the semiconductors. A bunch of the tech. They have not gotten financials. That's good news. They got a bunch of the staples. They got auto dealers. Oh, they got some big bi-regeneron pharmaceuticals.
Starting point is 00:21:15 The stock is crashed. Retail. They got retail. Even the almighty Costco's trading below the 50-day moving average. They've got some insurance stocks also. What they have not done yet is the indices. The Dow, a little bit. you know we had this around 42,000 with 41 8 so not 41 7 and change not the biggest of deal but potentially on the verge by the way the Dow closed a little bit below the 50 day moving average today which could be of import the Russell 2000 hanging in there but never got going the midcaps
Starting point is 00:22:09 broke out and failed. You get the points I'm trying to make here. Fewer things are working. Makes my job easier. But when I own a couple of these things, it kind of pisses me off. But such is life. We're very good at defending, though.
Starting point is 00:22:33 Remember, when wrong, be wrong, fast, be wrong, small. And that's worst case. scenario. So I mentioned financials to be watched closely. Interest rates were up again, 4.284.0.18, and that's another part of the equation we think's going on. And I can just go through a slew of other names. Roku got blasted today. I don't need to go through each and every one of them would just let you know it's getting a little bit tougher don't get me wrong they're winners freaking carvana up 40 bucks today and i don't understand i was looking at the numbers why is it up 40 something called twillio up 10 paycom uh 36 bucks how about something called matrix services
Starting point is 00:23:33 well they call it matsen now it's a shipper ocean shipper up to $21 to $155. There are winners. We're just letting you know more and more names. Ick. Up next, what else we got for you today? I'm Gary. This is the one that only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
Starting point is 00:24:25 the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.
Starting point is 00:25:08 We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. All right, quick quiz for the hiring managers out there. What's worse? Being understaffed or being poorly staffed? Well, that's a trick question, because both are recipes for chaos.
Starting point is 00:25:42 Either way, just say to yourself, this is a job for Indeed's sponsored jobs. You'll get matched with candidates that meet the skills, certifications, and everything else you're looking for. Or go a different way and get no traction. Seriously, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95% more likely to report. to hire than non-sponsored jobs. It really is a no-brainer. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed's sponsored jobs. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help your job get the premium status it
Starting point is 00:26:21 deserves at Indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? This is a job for indeed sponsored jobs. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU, will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. We're listening to. America is talking.
Starting point is 00:27:14 Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Uh, let me give out those final numbers. Dow down 378 today. And I must tell you,
Starting point is 00:27:52 the Dow dropped 41960, about 200 points in the last 10 minutes. Almost 200 points in the last 10 minutes. The NASDAQ today was down 512. And may I state for the record, I think dropped about 110 in the last 10 minutes. It was bad all day. Now what do we do?
Starting point is 00:28:30 Well, we've built up a lot of cash. That's number one. Number two. Oh, we just simply gauge. We simply gauge. What stocks aren't breaking down? what stocks aren't crumbling what stocks are holding up
Starting point is 00:28:55 like Iraq we really do not know when I mean this what the market does from here we know it's under pressure you had another big down day today you had another bad advanced decline day today
Starting point is 00:29:17 we know things are worsening today and we also do know oh that's right, we got this election next week. Oh, yeah. Oh, we also have the Fed. We just take it stock by stock, sector by sector, and go from there.
Starting point is 00:29:44 But it's tougher and tougher and tougher and tougher because it's fewer and fewer and fewer. If the indices give way, we'll let you know they have not. But it's getting tougher. and we're pretty much, we're waiting for Apple now. There'll be a lot more earnings in the next couple of weeks, but when all said and done, a lot of the big stuff is gone. There's some retail to come, some oils to come.
Starting point is 00:30:27 Most of the financials have reported, and I have to repeat the one thing that's standing out for me. One thing, 10-year yield almost at 4.3%. And if you've been following me for many of months, moon. We've been telling you to be watching that. Not the Fed. We're always a med. They talk about the Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed. And we keep saying, just watch the market, market, market, the 10-year yield is the market. The 10-year yield is the free market. The Fed is a man's whims. Yeah, I think I'll raise a quarter or lower a quarter. Who cares? Gold finally pulled back
Starting point is 00:31:22 today. The GLD was down $3.99 to $253.51 in a pretty darn good up trend here and may just need to relax, settle, sit back, but it's been riding up quite nicely. The S&P, not thrilled today. We have owned an S&P 500 proxy about 80% of the time since last November. I think three times we sold and three times we bought back because there are certain signals we get. And you just don't know if that signal is going to turn into something longer term. Today was not a great day. Maybe Amazon being up in the aftermarket and we're waiting for Apple help. By the way, Amazon, I'm going to have to go deeper into it.
Starting point is 00:32:28 their guidance going forward it's pretty damn good and if you don't know by now I have been one that have been praising Amazon is amazing what they do I do not own the stock they announced a major looks to me
Starting point is 00:32:55 increase in operating expectations of operating income for quarter three 11.5 to 15 billion they're saying 17.4. I'm going to have to double check that. Intel missed by a mile, but says things are going to be a little bit better.
Starting point is 00:33:16 Maybe that helps the semis tomorrow, don't know. And may I state for the record the semis need help. Down 206 today. And boy, just acting icky. Just want to make sure you know that I did not say anything about we're going into a bare market. The end of the world is coming and all that crap, just that.
Starting point is 00:33:43 Fewer and fewer and fewer stocks, more and more names, and we'll see what comes of it. And as always, if anything changes, we'll let you know. But it was not a groovy day today. In other news, boy, I'm mad. They killed off Sam on General Hospital today. It's a girl. As you know, I've been watching General Hospital. in 1978.
Starting point is 00:34:22 In fact, my roommate used to sell sweatshirts and t-shirts on the mall at the University of South Florida. I'd rather be watching General Hospital, and it was so hot back then, it would sell out left and right. They killed off Sam. Terrible. Terrible. One of the more popular characters. How dare they? Do you think we cover enough stuff here? General Hospital, Mets, Yankees,
Starting point is 00:34:54 well, who wants to cover the Giants right now? And by the way, we just started basketball season. I do like the Knicks team this year with towns who scored in the 40s last night. We're getting all kinds of questions on if who wins the election and if who gets what. Meaning if she wins and gets the House and the Senate. if she wins and gets the House but not the Senate if she wins and gets the Senate but not the House and back to him
Starting point is 00:35:32 well I just want to repeat I'm pretty sure to guarantee the Republicans have the Senate go look it up why it's just about how many are up for election and where that's number one so I don't think if she wins she's going to have just pure whatever
Starting point is 00:35:58 except we're finding out in the last few years about executive power I never knew that a president could forgive loans did you pick and choose oh since we like your group of people we're going to forgive your loans the other people now we'll leave them big
Starting point is 00:36:20 I never thought they'd be able to do that so you never know they did executive orders on the border in the last six months. After their poll numbers on immigration dropped below, as I say, root canal and jockage.
Starting point is 00:36:40 They did executive orders fixing the border. And I don't know if you know this, but the amount of people coming through the border in the last six months has dropped big time. And they knew they could have done that a while ago. But they wanted open borders
Starting point is 00:37:02 until it came time for the election. So you never know. We'll just wait and see. As you know, I'm just no fan of either. And I do believe if there was a great Democrat nominee, it would be a landslide against Trump because half the country. And I do believe it was a great Republican nominee. It would be a landslide against her. Just my take.
Starting point is 00:37:40 Up next, what else we got for you? Yeah, we'll figure it out. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,
Starting point is 00:38:28 Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic. chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Starting point is 00:39:05 Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. All right, quick quiz for the hiring managers out there. What's worse? Being understaffed or being poorly staffed? Well, that's a trick question, because both are recipes for chaos. Either way, just say to yourself, this is a. job for Indeed's sponsored jobs. You'll get matched with candidates that meet the skills, certifications, and everything else you're looking for. Or go a different way and get no traction.
Starting point is 00:39:46 Seriously, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95% more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs. It really is a no-brainer. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job. for Indeed's sponsored jobs. And listeners of this show will get a $75-sponsored job credit to help your job get the premium status it deserves at Indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? This is a job for Indeed's sponsored jobs. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible, Online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.
Starting point is 00:40:47 You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guest's edge.
Starting point is 00:41:09 with Gary Culper. Boy, I'm going through what we do here because we're ambidextrose during radio is, well, we just sit and scan. I don't sit in a chair anymore. I stand all day. Remember, I had the back spasm, so the PT person said, try standing most of the time instead of sitting. And make sure you do the stretches. and I'm a stretch king now, even though I'm about as limber as an oak tree,
Starting point is 00:42:01 but I'm doing what needs. And what I'm able to do here is I have this little software, and I just start clicking. And I can tell you I've been clicking away, and man, just a lot of stocks cracking. And then some weird things also. Let me give you an example about some of the things we look at. MasterCard.
Starting point is 00:42:24 So MasterCard today was $528. I'm using approximates on the open today in the first five minutes. It's $528. Up $14 on earnings, which looked pretty good. It finished down $14. $28 move. And what we do is we define that as distribution. We look at the physicality of it. That is the big institutional crowd selling into their
Starting point is 00:43:07 earnings report. And just remember, we always use the line here. It had a chance to and then fill in the blank. And what that means is, how many days have we come on here and we said, hey, the Dow was down 300 early today and finished up 150. Well, we come on and say, well, the Dow had a chance to really get cream today and they couldn't do it. It got defended and got bought up. And we've also said, oh, the Dow was up 300 today, finished down 200. Oh, had a chance to.
Starting point is 00:43:44 Or something breaks out. Oh, this broke out today. Which name broke out yesterday and failed? Ah, duolingo. So here's a stock that broke out perfectly above 298, goes to 310 yesterday, closes at 300, goes down to 285 today. That's what it means by had a chance to break out of range and get going. We call it the launching pad and then turn down. Guess what?
Starting point is 00:44:15 MasterCard had a chance today to have a very good reaction to earnings, and they sold in. to it. We're a recognition of it. We understand it and we act accordingly. Well, we don't own the stock, but just making a point. Then you have, on the other side, there were some things today that were down early, finished up, and that makes our job not so easy. It's a pain in the rear to see reversals like that, especially in the markets. They really are. So what we'll do now is every time a stock breaks to the downside, and we're getting more, it'll come off one screen, go to the next, this other screen of things, oh, it broke today, and we know there's fewer and fewer. I, at this juncture, have two semiconductor stocks out of 80 above the 50-day
Starting point is 00:45:22 move and average and both of them got cream today. Nvidia, Broadcom. Now there's some smaller ones that are decent, but I don't really include them. I'm talking about the meaty ones, M-E-A-T-Y. So we're just giving you an idea how we look at things, how we adjust, but today, ugh, yuck. Maybe Amazon saves it a little bit, and again, those Amazon guidance numbers are pretty darn good. and is up $9 in the aftermarket, but it's only up $3 today inclusive. And of course, there'll be a conference call, and then we get to open tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:46:05 And we've seen some weirdness. Member service now was down $30 in the after hours. The next morning at 9.30, right before the open, it's down 10, and at 9.35, it's up 30. beats the hell out of us how that works. But we always say it is going to be the outcome that matters most when all is said and done. And that'll give us a real good understanding of markets. Other things I noticed today, why did Hyatt drop $11.5.5 bucks, the hotels. We're going to have to look at that and then other hotels coming in.
Starting point is 00:46:57 We're going to then look at the cruise lines, which are acting strong, and of course, lower oil prices will help that. We're constantly doing what we call the intermarket work to get to the understanding why something's going on. But most importantly, as we tell you, when we're wrong, we're wrong fast and wrong small. When we're right, we try to let them run. And then sometimes there are markets that will not let anything run and you just get the heck out of the way. and then you have definable bear markets sometimes and then it's what we call uh-oh moments but we don't think we're there we do think there's issues we think
Starting point is 00:47:38 a lot of the defense stocks of top the auto dealers a lot of the retail the dollar store stocks are in brutal bare markets a bunch of the drug stocks are bearish and now eli lilly jordan's that novardis already did this is how we keep the score Gold strong, but the gold miners, not really. And every time gold pulls back, the gold miners really get hit. Something we're in recognition of. The consumer staples were acting pretty darn well.
Starting point is 00:48:11 They topped out. They've been getting crushed. Except the tobacco stocks, Philip Morris and Altria group, they spun off. Strong as Ox. Whatever the reason, people still loving their needs. nicotine. Well, the Altria group today was up 8% today on zero sales growth. So I don't know what the reason why that went up, but it's just what we're seeing. So it's going to get interesting. We didn't get Apple during the show. We'll know more tomorrow. And hopefully we get some
Starting point is 00:48:51 defense soon. You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I'm tired. I'm going to take a nap. Until tomorrow. Peace out all.
Starting point is 00:49:06 Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to garyk.com. That's GaryK.com. If you want something done right, you do it yourself. That's why you change your own oil. You wouldn't trust your engine to just anybody. so go with the full synthetic motor oil you can trust.
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