Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Economic Trouble

Episode Date: September 13, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's the 13th of September, 2020. Ladies and gentlemen, every now and then your handsome and buffed host has, well, Well, we think we're important every day, but there are certain days that we just see some things that we have to be a little bit vociferous in the thought process. You see, we have this thought process, and that is the market is smarter than all of us. That's our thought process. The market is smarter than all of us.

And what do we mean by that? back in 07, the bank started woefully underperforming. Nobody had any inclination that all hell was going to break loose. And what I mean woefully underperforming, I still remember when the banks got hit, and then the Dow rallied a thousand points, and the banks hardly moved. And then the Dow topped out and the banks crashed. And little did we know that a bunch of them were a bunch of crooked, sleazy, slimy, scummy people that nobody got indicted for, and a bunch of them went out of business.

The market knew. That was then. Back in 99, we had a bubble. The bubble topped. The market had the inclination about how valuations went out of whack and look out. And guess what? In the last couple of years, you had the bond market drop and drop and drop. drop. Everybody said everything's okay and then inflation showed up. The market knew. In case you

didn't know, we did have a recession. The market knew. Whatever the reason we came out of the recession, the 150 million of us going to work, that's what did it. But what have we told you? What have we told you in the recent past? We've told you facts. F-A-C-T-S. F-A-C-T-S. F-E-S. F-E-T-S. F-E. F-S. F-E. I have a whole laundry list here of facts that Joe Biden ain't paying attention to. In fact, they are doing a world-win tour talking about Bidenomics. How great it is. And you know what we think of Bidenomics. He's going to run a $2 trillion deficit this year, which is more than the federal spending that we had.

in all of 2000. So you know what I think of Binomics? Binomics can kiss my royal behind. But let me give you some facts. California. Did you know that the unemployment rate has gone from 3.8% up to 4.6% recently?

It's just California, though. Do you know that auto loan debt in the U.S. currently stands at $1.5 trillion a record high? Did you know that? Did you know that? Did you know that during the Great Depression of many years ago? Houses were three times the average salary. Today, it's eight times.

Cars were 46% of the yearly salary. It's now 85. Rent only took 16% of the annual salary. It's 42 now. Shall I continue? I can continue. Delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards, and consumer loans just hit their highest level since 2012. The average new car now costs 48,300.

up from 37,700 from four years ago. The debt to income ratio for all home buyers in the U.S. just hit 40% for the first time in history. Even in the 2008 financial crisis, this ratio peaked at 39%. The number of Americans rolling credit card debt from month to month is now higher than the number of people paying their bills, the first time ever. I'm going to continue. Oh, the inverted yield curve. Do I need to talk about that? The inverted yield curve.

No, the inverted yield curve that everybody says, don't worry about. You want me to continue? I can. LVMH, luxury goods company, says spending is really starting to slow down. Did you know that 31% of all U.S. government debt outstanding or $7.6 trillion mature over the next year at much higher rates? No, really. A credit card delinquency rates across small banks have searched at 7.5%, the highest in history. No, really. The debt to GDP ratio in the U.S. is now 119%.

Want me to continue? Three years ago, the average 30-year mortgage was 2.98%. The median existing home price in the U.S. with 294. It's now 7.23%. The medium home price is 440. Thank you. Jay Powell, would you like me to continue because I do have more, but I can stop there. Because the market is smart.

Those are just facts. We already talked to you about savings rates have plunged. Credit card usage is skyrocketed. We've already gone through that too. Of course, again, I can do more, but I don't need to. So what we do is we look towards the markets. Let the markets confirm trouble. The markets.

That's what we think we should do at all times. In the recent past, we've been telling you about, boy, a lot of economically sensitive stocks are starting to get into trouble. You know what we mean by economically sensitive, right? Industrial types, construction, housing, housing related, machinery. And a few of them have gotten in trouble, but nothing, what I would call, untoward. It's getting untoward now. Some of my favorite economically sensitive stocks are now starting to break what we consider to be important areas of support, and these are names that have been holding up better. United Rentals, Industrial Equipment Rental Company, they do $15 billion a year

in revenues. Parker Hanifan, machinery, breaks the 15,000. day moving average today down 15 bucks united rentals broke it a lear seating and it's now lear corp automotives completely breaking down the cement companies breaking down and they've been strong things like builders first source building products for residential topping out housing stocks topping out. Retail's already been trashed and just worsens. Stanley Black and Decker. Stanley Black and Decker. Topped out. Snap on tools. Big topping out. Have you ever heard of treks? Topped out. You know what they do? Decking and railing and fencing. And when we mean topped out, we mean topped out.

And you have to assume, well, you don't have to assume. Let's assume we know what the hell we're talking about when we're saying these things are topping out some badly. And we're bringing these names up because they've held up while others have croaked. So we're just letting you know if the market is smart. And this continues. We're getting closer. And would it be interesting that we're getting closer as a few investment banks in the last two weeks came out and said, we're lowering our chance of recession.

You know why they're lowering the chance of recession? Because in the quarter we're in, GDP numbers look pretty decent. Government spending. That's going to only go so. far. Up next, we'll continue. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range

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It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So Gary, could it just be that they're just in a bad time now and they're going to come down and everything's going to be okay? Sure. Sure. But in the context, in the context, in the context of everything I just explained to you.

And I left out a few things. It's to be watched very, very closely now. Because I've been saying now for months, if we lose the job market, trouble will lie ahead for the economy that we're in. Simple as that. And I can have GDP at 10% if I run $5 trillion deficits and just spend like, I'd like to say like a drunken sailor. But a drunken sailor usually falls down and goes to sleep and doesn't spend anymore.

So we're just letting you know while a bunch of investment banks are out telling us everything's A-OK. We're telling you we're not so sure everything's A-O-K. okay. You got that? Remember, none of them saw inflation. We did. None of them saw the bare market. We did. None of them saw the bubbles pop. We did. Nobody complained about the spacks. We did. And they're still bringing out the spacks, these morons. If they weren't such large bookies, they'd be all out of business. So we're going to let the market decide. and we're just letting you know some of our favorites. And let's go a little bit further.

So as you know, it's been rough going for regional banks, as well as bigger banks. And as you know, yesterday had a good day for the banks. They had some investor conference and they rallied up. Today, huh. Interesting. They were breaking down some regional bank stocks today. You know, the old SunTrust truest? That sucker is breaking down badly. That's already big bear market.

It's near the lows of the Silicon Valley Bank incident. U.S. Bank Corps breaking down. Hmm. Why would they be breaking down now? Well, if the economy's going to get in trouble and all these things, one plus one equals two, simple as that. Steel stocks are breaking down. Interesting. You know what's not breaking down?

Oil prices and coal. Not so sure that's good news. You know what else happened today? and we warned you about this before anybody else. Weeks and weeks ago we told you that the airlines had topped out. Weeks and weeks ago we had told you it's got to be a problem that oil prices are now going topside, that the largest expense for the airlines is energy.

American and spirit. lowered their profit numbers today. American has gone from 19 to 13 in change since July. We warned you, and the rest of them have been blasted. Airlines. So we'll see how this plays out, but we're just... How would I put this to you? We're on notice.

We do not think it's thrilling that Martin Marietta, materials, Lear Corp, Eaton, topped, builders first saws, United Rentals, Parker Hannifan, Snap-on, Stanley Works, Treks, Whirlpool, Carrier, Otis Elevator, are all topped, with some top badly, and everything's going to be A-O-K. Caterpillar, which has actually been strong, looks like it may have topped out today. Caterpillar. Deer had already been dead money. So stay tuned.

We'll stay on it. We're just giving you a heads up on what the market is doing. And would it be interesting that these doofuses at the investment banks all coming out jumping on each other? Oh, I think we're okay now. And you know what they're all forgetting. How is the economy okay if our government, that we're supposed to depend on to do the right thing, to do the right thing,

is spending $2 trillion more than they're taken in. Joe Biden should be in jail for that, let alone impeachment, which is so funny to watch. The media this morning was defending Biden like he's an angel. No evidence, no evidence. When they were impeaching Trump the first go around, they were that they were so gleeful and happy now there's no evidence even though there's a there's a

a a text message from the son about he's got to give 50% of all his money to his father no evidence 20 million bucks go into the family from all kinds of nefarious countries no evidence the big guy no evidence i want to see them bank statements evidence evidence sitting right in their faces. That was the funny one today. No evidence. Corrupt as corrupt can be. I'd say it to his face.

And just so you know, every Democrat defending him right now knows it also. But that's for another story. So we just wanted to start out today. I was watching all day. Whoa, there goes Parker Hannanathan. Whoa, there goes that one. Whoa, there goes that one. Oh, now they're getting Caterpillar.

Ooh, 3M down $6 today. 3M. A big conglomerate that does office products, communication products, medical tapes, and all kinds of stuff crushed today. And it wasn't Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling. It traded double average volume. 3M economically sensitive. So stay tuned.

Could be nothing. We're just going back to our tried and true. If the market was smart, something is up. And it would laugh in the face of these investment banks saying, everything's cool. Up next, market wrath. This is the one only investors. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your

Next, dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors' Edge.

You people that love Trump, you may want to close your ears. Anyway, so Mitt Romney decided he's not going to run again. He's 76 years old. He just said he's done and whatever. Donald Trump is making fun of him. Donald Trump is making fun of Mitt Romney. Donald Trump as a man couldn't lace the shoes of Mitt Romney as a man is making fun of Mitt Romney. Let's talk making fun.

Since Trump became president, the Republicans have gone from 34 to 26 governorships. Since Trump became president 68 to 57 state legislative chambers, since Trump became president 241 House seats to 222, since Trump became president 52 to 49 Senate seats, and he lost the Oval Office to a buzzard. And Trump's making fun of Mitt Romney. What a yutz.

I so hope that he goes, Biden goes, and we find two, well, on the Marxist side, there ain't nobody. But on the Republican side, there's a couple of decent people in there. You know who Trump is? He's Eddie Haskell from Leavitt to Beaver. That's who he is. He's the one in high school that watched two kids fighting on the gymnasium floor yelling, hit him, hit him. God, both Biden and Trump just nauseate the living crap out of me. And this is who's going to be running against each other to run this country.

Biden just gave $6 billion to Iran. Great. That's another beautiful move. Another yutz. By the way, it's all under my moniker. They all suck. And I respect each and every one of your opinions on who you like, love, whatever. We differ.

Hope you respect mine. These people are running us into the ground. Trump, six trillion in deficits. Just letting you know. Okay. Today's market wrap. I'm actually in a good mood, by the way. My back's feeling so much better. I'm the king of stretch now, by the way. I want to thank each and every one of you before we do the market wrap.

I received, do you know, we got 3,000 emails, 3,000 on your back aches and how to help me out. And what it turned out was, and who knows, it can come back, it can be chronic. When I wake up in the morning, 20 minutes of stretching my hips, whatever those are called, my lower back, my hamstrings. I go to a physical watch medugie each week, and you know what they do to me, they stretch me. and their thought process was sitting too much and not stretching enough, and I've already about as limber as an oak tree. So it's worked so far and a lot of swimming, which I think helped too. That said, I'm not taking any chances.

I'm still being very careful. I have not picked up a golf club, which is quite depressing. And you know me? I'm a big workout guy. Hardly any. I've been just tabling that right now. Little bicep work with lightweights and stuff. I'm going to get going again, but I want to give it a little bit more time.

I thank each and every one of you for your help. Big time. You have no idea. You're all sweethearts. Anyway, today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That is Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-models.com. Well, the Dow was down 70 today. The NASDAQ was up 40. The NASDAQ advanced decline was 15 up 25 down. How was it up 40? Oh, and the NASDAQ 159. Amazon up 4, Adobe up 11 bounces after yesterday's disaster. Google was up 1.5.

Facebook up 360. Microsoft up for, NVIDIA up 6. Oracle up 2, Tesla up 4. one stock not participating apple down another am i right in saying this down another two and change apple stock is acting terribly so it was really a mega cap affair and you know how i know this when i look to my left i have one screen and three columns make that five of stocks that are technology based but not mega caps and not leading, meaning they've all broken down.

And there's five columns of them. That's how many are bad. About 85% of them are read today with the NASDAQ up 40. And that's because, as we have stated, Takeaway Apple was down today. But Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla. Adobe, I think, may be there too.

These are the top seven names, notwithstanding Apple, which is number one, that did the trick. And I can tell you flat out, that's only going to go so far. Now, I will tell you this, there was one new high on the NASDAQ today, Amazon, new yearly high.

Stock's acting strong. Others are just bouncing off their 50-day moving average. Oracle was trashed yesterday, only bounced two today. Tomorrow will be Adobe. Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, bouncing off the 50-day, they're going to need the stick. And they did a pretty good job of it.

But as I go away from just those names and look to my left, and it starts with symbol ASAN and goes to symbol ZBRA, it's got to be about 300 names, look like crap. and some still way, way down. Others are a little better than the others. I don't think we can go too long with just six or seven names.

And back on what we started with the show, them economically sensitive stuff, that's going to get interesting. I really do believe the market is smart. I do. And while I'm watching California's unemployment rate go up, And by the way, California is like the number seven-sized country in the world, something like that. That may be a tell. Not sure.

That may be a tell. And again, if we lose the job market with the debt and deficits and where rates are and there's a fine line. So we are paying attention. Why? because the market's really starting to show some ick in those areas. And let me state for the record, there are certain areas that matter more than others when it come to economic sense of, by the way, you know what else got whacked today? Real estate stocks got whacked today.

Not so sure that real estate, not housing, commercial type real estate. So stay tuned. We're going to be on it. Nothing is ever written in stone, but we think the markets tend to be pretty darn smart. And if, in fact, the economy does start to get in trouble, expect the Fed to start lowering rates, would that be good? That'll be an interesting question. Lowering rates are supposedly good. but don't we still have some inflation?

I don't know about you. I think we do. I know they're coming out and saying, oh, things are better. I don't believe a word coming out of their mouths. You know why? We buy the food here. We go to the gas stations. We see the prices. We see what rent is. We see affordability on housing.

We're seeing a lot of things. So stay tuned. And everything I'm telling you right now, I'm an optimist. I've never been more optimistic on most of us. The problem is I've never been more pessimistic on all of them. Up next, this, that, and the other thing or whatever else, this is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a 300,000.

annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Hedge with Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors. Mr. Edge, hey, thanks for being with us today. We would love to come on here and tell you how this, that, and the other thing is really working very well. But we're just letting you know what we're seeing.

We're letting you know what we're seeing. And we're letting you know we really do believe the market has a voice. Time and time again, it is shown it has a voice. It has a voice. In the news, op-ed New York Times, where is the evidence, Speaker McCarthy, when talking about them doing impeachment inquiry on Joe Biden? Here's the amazing part about the media that sucks. This guy David French does an op-ed on the impeachment and says, where's the evidence? And then he starts writing about all the evidence.

he says in absence of such evidence that Biden should be impeached and then he goes on to say oh but the family's got to be 20 million bucks from all kinds of country Hunter Biden this he goes on to talk about the text about getting 50% of all his money these people are such these journalists are like they're like criminal They're supposed to defend us. Hold a powerful to account. Nope, it's they hold who they want to account. And we just got to be smart and stay on top of it.

That's what I do. In the news, did anybody watch the Video Music Awards last? You know what? I'm not going to get into it. Now, I'm going to leave it be. Certain things I'm going to leave it be. In the news, here's a good one. Alex Rodriguez ratted out other Major League Baseball stars in their steroids in 2014.

That's going to be fun to watch. In the news, they caught that guy that was on the run. The escape murder prisoner, did you see how we walked up the wall? It was like Tom Cruise like, but they caught the guy. And the best news was, boy, was he bloodied up when they got him. Yay. In the news, the Biden administration is now shifting blame for the migrant crisis in New York City onto the mayor. Yeah, let's be a sanctuary city. We don't want them now. Don't you love people? And they're whining, complaining, and nobody wants to do anything about the solution.

You know what the solution is, ladies and gentlemen? Here's the solution. You know our misty logic, right? you'll try getting into Mexico try crossing the border into Mexico try crossing the border into Canada go try doing that try becoming a citizen in Mexico no really

try doing that there's your answer there's your answer I believe in immigration I believe in legal immigration I have some people that I know very close to my family that took years and lots of money and time and sweat and crying to become citizens of the U.S. They did it legally.

And now they sit and watch how it's just open border time. And when they come in, they get everything paid for. while we have a ton of Americans and veterans hopeless. I've never seen such illogic. Do you know what the other thing is, how stupid it is? These people are not allowed to work. When they come over, they're not allowed to work. The law is you can't work.

But we'll keep you here and we'll house you and use taxpayer dollars to house you and feed you and health care you and everything you, but we're not going to let you work for it. How freaking stupid is our immigration policy? I don't know if you know this. It's insanity. It's so logical to just flip what they're doing. That's in the news.

And we'll leave it at that. Back on point, I have no idea what the market does tomorrow. In fact, you had the big six or seven today doing well. Oh, Netflix is number 14. Big breakdown today to the downside. They had some investor conference and said something the market didn't like. But you had another day where advanced declines are bad, new highs, new lows are bad, but a few select names have the NASDAQ up.

That's only going to last so long. Let's be watching. and if more and more the Parker Hannafins and the United Rentals and the new cores and the reliance steals break down and the Caterpillars and the FedEx and the UPS and the like, something to watch. Other things that happened today, oil stocks finally took a hit today.

Not a big deal. They normal pullback. The 10-year yield, which was up decently early on inflation numbers, came down today, that's good to see. We'll take that. We need yields lower. But of import, again, if the market is smart,

we're going to be on watch. You have a good evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug these children. They'll feel better. You'll feel better. Until tomorrow.

Oh, be on with Varney. 9.30 a.m. Don't miss that. Little before 9.30 a.m. And same time tomorrow for the show. Have a great one, everybody. Bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.