Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Educational Series: The Big BEAR MARKETS - PART 2

Episode Date: November 24, 2023

garykaltbaum.com

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Straight talk about you and your money. You can reach Gary now at 877-747 Edge. That's 877-7-47-33-43. Here is your host, Gary Call-Call. And welcome once again to Investors' Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.

Happy that you are listening. This is part two of our educational series. Part two of the big bear markets and its characteristics and the reactions. In part one, we talked to you about how markets. top and price and how many stocks and which stocks and sectors and reactions but we only took you to the point of the major indices not in what they call on wall street bare market territory yet you see there's always hope to these people and the last thing we told you in part one of this series is that bare market rallies are sharp, they're quick, they make you feel good, they get people talking about them, they suck you in, and bury you soon after.

Bare market rallies are sharp and vicious. You get monstrous moves over a few day period as you get short squeezes, only to fail. So we also talked about how the 50-day moving average is heading down now, how people losing just a little bit of hope. But knowing this has happened before in the last 10 years, we're good. But to us, we're just looking for characteristics, not opinion. And most stocks now are in downtrends. Leading stocks have been squashed. We'll get to that in a little bit. Instead of people just calling it a correction, they're calling it a good correction.

they're still telling you it's cheap and it's a value and if you own stock 20% higher you've got to own stock here and if you sell now you're selling too late believe me we've been listening to them for many years but the market had something else in mind something different in mind

it's a bare market no a real one so what you need to know now is the other part of the 50 day moving average that is so vital since price is now below the 200-day moving average, which is now flattening out because it's slower. In a bull market, all pullbacks,

pull-back into the ascending 50-day moving average in and around it, sometimes undercutting it a little bit, but eventually just turning back up, the 50-day moving average is a single, and price is moving along that 50 day. And on so many occasions, you will find stocks that live above it for a year and touch it almost to the penny a few times.

And as we stayed in the first go-round, it is when the break of that 50-day happens. A stock trades above it for a year and breaks it. It's usually a break of importance. And when you see so many going along with it, usually breaks of importance. But now we're farther along in the bearish market, bear market, whatever you want to call it, downtrend, correction. Nasty correction. Well, in a bull market, if price is contained on every pullback of an ascending 50-day moving average,

what do you think bear markets look like? It's simple. We now have price bouncing up into the descending 50-day moving average and failing every time, give or take, a little bit. Sometimes it'll rally above it for a couple of days, but always failing. And is there a way of knowing it's going to fail? Well, there are a few things you can watch. Volume.

If volume is weak and anemic on the move. If there's no follow-through at the 50-day. But more importantly, if you did not see enough time, a bottoming process and you just have sharp moves up, it's usually a fake-out. bottoms of bare markets usually take time and usually take price in and around those same areas. You hear terms of double bottoms and triple bottoms. Quadruples.

What that means is price will go down to a level, rally up, go down to the level, hold, rally up, go down to the level, hold the third time, and then finally turn up. That's how you'll know. So let me repeat this very important characteristic. In bull markets, price will pull back into an ascending 50-day moving average and then continue the ascension. In bare markets, price will rally up into a descendant. 50-day moving average, fail there,

and continue its dissension. And of course, every day we're doing our scans, every day we're looking for what we call changes. How many times have we said to you, if anything changes, we will let you know. and then an easy way to know if we're in a bare market, your stocks keep going down, regardless of what your broker tells you. And they go down again.

And they go down again. And it weighs on you the more we go down. Because you had a chance to sell on the initial break of the 50 day. you had a chance to sell as a lot more things were weakening you had a chance to sell breaking the 200 day but now you get what we call into the web it's the psychological web of man my account's down 24% I'm not selling now little do you know there's a lot more to go oh my accounts down 28% I'm not selling I'm not selling now I'm not selling now selling now, and of course Wall Street's telling you, the usual,

the same thing they told you when the market was down 5%, the same thing they told you when the market was down 10%, same thing they were telling you the market's down 15, same thing they're telling you when the market's down 20. Never sell. Think long term. But they forget and forgot or don't want to tell you

other characteristics of bare markets. Because they don't want to tell you those other characteristics. For some reason, well, we know what the reason is. Wall Street wants you to just stay in and think long-term. And I must tell you, since it's mid-August, 2019, as we do these two educational shows on bare markets, they've been right throughout the years. Or have they been right throughout the years?

Because in every bear market, one of the main characteristics are past leaders will get killed. And many names will go by the wayside. They forget to mention that. And you're not going to want to miss it. That's up next on this, the one and only investors' edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services Offered through Colbaum Capital Management

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. As again to Investors Edge, as we continue with part two of our educational series, these two parts on bare markets. So we were just telling you there are characteristics of bare markets. need to know about. Very important ones. Because you know what we hear from Wall Street. We have 100 years of history and we're doing this show in August of 2019 and the Dow and S&P are down

5, 6% of small mid-caps are down, maybe 11, 12%, foreign markets worse, but we've seen it before. But just to amuse you and amuse us, please listen. Just in case we ever get a real bare market again, which we guarantee you will happen. They forget to tell you about Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch,

Wachovia, countrywide financial, city group, which by the way is still down 90% from the highs of the high. They forgot to mention from the year 2000, Nortel Networks

or Lucent. or WorldCom. You know, these names I am mentioning are go-to, big-cap names that all went by-bye. There are hundreds more that they don't want you to remember. But we can promise you this

in the next bare markets that we have throughout the rest of history, we're going to see a lot more of that because the world changes. companies change. Technology companies become obsolete. Have you noticed recently what the retailers have been doing? Have you noticed Macy's? Macy's. We're not talking Sears Holdings and Kmart here. We're talking Macy's. All these retailers are being obliterated. Why? The world changed. Online the world so we must recognize from bull to bear markets massive change happens and

some of the greatest stocks of the prior bull market get destroyed in the bear market there have been studies done on average past growth leaders will drop 70% we are not making that number up. How can that be, Gary? How could these big leaders drop 70%? It's simple. Because in the bull market,

they were big leaders. And greatness only lasts so long. And as companies grow bigger and bigger, something always eventually happens. Growth slows. And when growth slows, the stock

slows and tops and the market recognize it. And since these stocks were so over-owned and over-love, they were also over-leveraged, so that margin has to come off, and all that's left to do is sell. So these people just telling you think long-term, fine, but you better think long-term with things that continue to work long-term. because you never know I, your host, if somebody told me in 2006 that by 2009

Merrill Lynch and Lehman and Countrywide and Wachovia and Bear Stearns would be gone I would have laughed in their face so you need to know this and not listen to people listen to price.

Next, the rules completely change in bull and bear markets. In bull markets, things are forgiven. Valuations can go nuts. Companies with 10 million in revenues can trade at $5 billion market caps. Fake meat companies with 200 million in sales can have $15 billion market caps, and they lose money. Bull markets are about greed and froth and speculation.

Bull markets very often have valuations thrown out the window, and all it's about is people buying at any price and any valuation, just in hopes that somebody's going to pay a higher price for their stuff. stock. And yes, we can spend a few hundred hours with examples on this. Bear markets are the exact opposite. While bull markets are about greed, froth, speculation, bear markets are on fear. And the continued building up of fear. And because of that fear, the curtains were will come down on valuation. Valuation returns back to the norm,

and any company losing money will get squashed. Any company, Gary? Any company. How do we know this? The study of bull and bear markets throughout history. If you ever have a chance to study the charts from 08 or 2000 to 03

you would not believe how far down things went on average stock now know where we're saying the next bear market's going to be like that but there's a chance there is but even a 25 to 30% sustained bear market will do massive damage up next

characteristics of a bare market. We have more. That will be up next on NISTI Investor's Edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

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Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreaker. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today again.

This is the educational show on Bear Market. This is the second part of two days. We are doing this show in mid-August, and we think it's apropos, because we've had 10 years where we really have not had a bear market because of central banks, and maybe we're getting closer, maybe not. So we just finished talking to about how bull markets are made of greed, froth, speculation. Bare markets are based on fear, but also despair. and a loss of hope.

Remember, we're winding our way through the bare market. 5% down, we're good. 10%? Eh, it's happened before. 15, 20. Hey, Joe, I thought you told me it will only be a small correction.

Well, then you get worse. But before we go there, if bull markets are about ridiculous valuations, guess what happens in bare markets? curtain comes down and valuation goes to the norm. In real bare markets, valuation will go to way under valuation. Prices you cannot believe. And even though finally you realize, damn, these things are undervalued, they keep going lower in price.

Because you're in a bear, a real bear, and you now have some stocks down 50, 60, 70, while the major indices are down 30, 35. And it's at that point, you can't lose any more. And then so many people are actually selling here because of loss of hope and despair. Now, some people say, screw it, I don't care if it goes to zero, but others have to pay. have to do something about their wealth. Since they did not know the characteristics of tops and bear markets, just get me out. Just get me out.

Which gets us closer to the last legs of the bear market. It is despair. It's where. On TV now, the same people that were telling you, everything's fine down 5% are telling you the end of the world's at hand. Without naming names, back in the despair of 0708, a certain very famous pundit who was bullish all the way down and calling bottoms all the way down told you to be out of the market for the next five years

and within a month markets bottomed. But if you were savvy enough, If you were smart enough, if you had a great eye and you studied enough, you were out way in advance and you didn't have to deal with that despair, which is a characteristic of late stages of a bare market. Back in 2008, I went to the bank and took out cash. We got so worried. So these great leading stocks that everybody had to own and got so overowned by the big instance. institutional crowd. And if you looked at the best mutual funds, it was their biggest positions, all the great mutual funds. Well, guess what? Things changed. Things turned. Over owned, overloved, over leveraged. That's why you get those big losses. So hope and despair. Articles about the market never coming back. No, really. The end of the stock market. World's going into depression. That's what you're you start hearing as major indices are down in the 30s average stocks are down in the 40s and 50s and by the way ladies and

gentlemen let me just intervene very quick and say these things do happen these bare markets do happen i know it has not happened in 10 years just remember they do couple of times a year i will spend five hours shut my office down and go look at past bare markets to remind myself they happen and to study them over and over again to make sure I don't miss them and guess what the fourth quarter of 2018 we nailed for you guys because all the characteristics of a top and in the entry of a bear market were occurring and we nailed it again but of course central banks came in and did their thing as the market went to its default setting and just turned back up but I will promise you one day one day it won't be that easy

And you better be ready. So now, we've had several vicious rallies. But every time we rallied, we rallied back up into and maybe above the 50-day moving average for a bit of time. And everyone fails. And the rallies are vicious. And it sucks people in, gets them all excited. Pundits are calling for the bottom for the umpteenth time.

And since you are so hopeful, you believe them every. time, even though they led you down the wrong path every time. So what do we do? Well, remember again, listen carefully. That last characteristic of a bare market, the final innings of a bare market, are a loss of hope and quite the despair. And when you turn on business channels, you see it in the faces, and you'll see people on there that told you don't worry at 5% down, now telling you to worry. Believe it or not, that's good news. No, really, that's good news. And markets will not turn until everybody that wants to sell is sold out. Gary, how will we ever know? How will we ever know when markets are sold out? We'll see it. Because just as we

told you characteristic of bull and bear markets and characteristics of bear markets, well, we're not going to let you hang on the characteristics of how bear markets end. So the first characteristic, again,

is the toughest one. Because of human nature, everybody's bearish. Human nature is we want to be part of the masses. It's tough to fight the masses. But in markets, when the massives are so depressed,

when everybody is bearish, when you can feel it reverberate, and you feel it in your bones and you're scared out of your wits, that's when it's time to double down on price in the market. Because the market's out to screw the masses at the most inopportune time.

So we have to have a microscope at this time because everybody's bearish, but guess what everybody's bearish means? It means that everybody is close to being sold out, and when there's nobody left to sell, therein lies the end of the bear market, and if you are smart enough and good enough, and have a keen enough eye to know it,

you can be right there ready for it. So, up next, we describe the top of the bull market. It's time to describe the bottom of the bear market. That's up next. On this the one and only, investors end. We're listening to... What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Eds, as we take you to the end of our two-day, two-part series on characteristics of bare markets. Now, as we said at the end of the last segment, we don't want to let you hang. The most important characteristic in the late innings of bare markets is something that you want to fight against. Because we all want to be with the crowd. But you have to fight it as much as you can.

Because at the end of bare markets, in that late inning, everyone is bearish. Everyone is bearish, and we're not talking the perma bears. We're talking about the people that were bullish all the way down, and in the late innings turned bearish. That is number one. First and foremost, you are not going to want to believe the market is going into the bottoming phase. That's number one. Number two.

Price. So, Remember what we said? At the top, stocks led the sectors, sectors laid the market. Well, if stocks led down, what do you think they do at the end of bear markets? They lead up. So, first the indices. First the indices. Well, they first have to stop going down, right?

But it doesn't happen once because bottoming is a process. It's not an event. So the Dow, the S&P, NASDAQ, whatever you look at, will hit a price and rally up, but then come down and retest. And sometimes go below that price, but buy a little bit, but come back quickly above it, and rally up, and come back down, and retest, and rally up, and come back down.

And for four, five months, or three months or two months, you can take a nice little pen and draw a line underneath price where it went and you will see that in and around that area it stops but something else happens while that's going on while the indices are bottoming the next big leaders

of the next bull market start to take shape really well we're scanning 1500 stock a day and all of a sudden we find while the major indices are still at their lows we find 30 names that hit their lows two months ago and I've already in the process of stair stepping their way up heavy volume on the upside light volume on the pullback their 50-day moving averages instead of ascending flatten out and start turning up

before the indices and you start to see all of a sudden the biggest, strongest, leading names that have done nothing for a while, break out of range, what, we actually have stocks breaking out of range, and the market still hasn't bottom, that's how it goes. And you know what happens next? Your probe. You know, I'm going to buy a couple of these names, just small positions. And lo and behold, they start working. Wow, that hasn't happened in the last bunch of months, and then more and more names show up, and fewer and fewer stocks are headed down, and more and more names show up, and fewer and fewer stocks head down, and then something happens.

The major indices which spent two or three months retesting itself, finally break to the upside and break above initial resistance. You know when I said we rally up and come down? Well, they got back above that rally up. And then the major indices, 50-day moving averages, start flattening out and start turning up. And then we can start drawing little stair steps to the upside. As more and more names break out, the new high list, the new yearly high list starts increasing. And away we go.

and let me give you one big gigantic hint and not such a hint after a bare market ends the first stocks to break out of range most of them will be got gigantic monsters as the reason why they didn't break out a range sooner is because the market held them back they shot out of a cannon

and that's why it's so imperative when everybody's depressed and nobody wants in to work double time because your biggest, most gigantic money are made in the first few months of a new bull market as the great names were held back. And then you'll start noticing something about these great names. Earnings will be up 50%, revenues up 30,

earnings up 100%, revenues up 40. Some of these names will be the IPOs of the past bullmark that got crushed but kept growing their businesses so strong because they have new products, new management, that have such strong demand, and they go up one fold, two fold, four fold, five fold. And there you have it. Little tutorial, two parts, on bare market tops, bare market characteristics and bare market bottoms, but it's not that easy. just can't listen to two hours of radio, you've got to put it into effect. Hope you do. Had a great evening, drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do simple procedure. Make sure you hug your children. Night night, all. Thanks for joining us for another edition of Investors Edge on the Biz Talk Radio Network. If you missed any of today's show or to get in touch with Gary Coltbaum, please go to garyk-kadcom. That's GaryK.com. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.