Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Elevated Distribution Week in Review [06.20.2025]

Episode Date: June 20, 2025

garykaltbaum.com

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary K, who's out today.

Today is Friday, June 20th, 2025, and we've got a great show for you tonight. As always, want to thank you very much for being here. All right, as you know, this is a show. show about you and your money and all the points in between. Just as a quick reminder before we dive into the fun stuff, if you don't get this show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com, you can listen live or archive. I tend to speak quickly. And the good news is you can pause, rewind, fast forward, anytime you want, on any device you want, 24-7, all for free, all available on GaryK.com.

You can also subscribe in Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox. You can follow Gary on X, formerly known as Twitter, by just... Clicking the button or the banner or go on Twitter or X and type in at Gary Colpom. Or you can, if you want his ask about his money management services, feel free to do that as well. Or you can join his premium service, which is convictionleaders.com. That's convictionleaders.com. All right. A few things.

We have some distribution. Distribution is a fancy Wall Street term, which means selling. the market's made up of individual investors and institutional investors and just about all investors in between. However you want to divide it up and categorize it, feel free. Labels aside, to me, I'm more of a spirit of the law kind of guy than the letter of the law. Some people are very meticulous and detail oriented and they like labels and very, very, you know, 1 plus 1 equals 2.

I'm more of the spirit of the law, meaning the gist of it. I want to understand what is the intention behind the law, not the actual rule. So if you call it, you know, distribution day is a down day on heavier volume than the prior session, all things being equal, like to super simplify it. And accumulation is just buying. It's an up day on heavier volume than the prior day. Now, when you have the net net, the reason why I love price and looking at markets objectively is because it helps remove emotions from the distinction.

from the decision-making process. I wrote a book, and it was number one on Amazon every day for three months. I'm very happy about that after I published it. And thank you all for who supported it and leaving nice comments on Amazon and all that fun stuff. And in it, the reason why it was number one is because it teaches people how to make rational, not emotional decisions, especially with their money. And people, in general, are emotionally attached to their money. They love money, right?

You've heard this before. Even in cartoons, you see SpongeBob's. character, Mr. Crabs, money, money, money, you know, that kind of stuff. And you've seen this over and over and over again. And you just ask yourself, you know, I don't know anybody that's really, really upset when they make money in the market, or they make a million dollars, or they make $50,000 or $5,000. Or if they find a dime or a nickel or a penny on the street, right, or $20 bucks on the street or $100 bill on the street, you get happy.

It's a feeling that's an emotion. And when you lose money, conversely, it's a negative. feeling emotion, right? So in the book, I talk about a hangar in a closet. Nobody that I know is emotionally attached to a hanger in a closet. Meaning, a doctor can't perform surgery, heavy-duty surgery on their immediate family, you know, for the most part. Why? Because their emotions are attached. But they can perform surgery in other people, no problem. Why? Because when your emotions are involved, it cloud your judgment, it causes you to make, you know, less sound decisions. Again, I'm speaking in general terms, all things being equal, not every single time,

but for the most part. So we have a situation now where when your emotions are attached to your money and you want to make good decisions, but the market's moving up and down and we've got news, like Gary says, this is the most headline-driven news ever market. Like, headline-driven, news-driven market I've seen decades, if not ever, right? So where one tweet could move markets or one post, whatever they call it now, I guess no longer a tweet if it's Twitter X, who knows, one post could move markets, right? And our job is to remove that emotion from the decision-making process, look at price because that incorporates the individual investors, that incorporates the institutional investors, that incorporates everything in between. Again, the spirit of the law is what

I'm saying here, right? And you want to look at distribution, look at accumulation, look at what's happening under the surface. So distribution days, or distribution in general, it's a small but a subtle sign or important sign of what the big institutions are doing with their money. Now, I'm not privy to see when they're buying and when they're selling. I have no idea. But it shows up in price and volume. So when the market goes down on heavier volume in the prior session, that's considered distribution day. Now, all things being equal, two, three, four, five distribution days over a two or three, four, five week period.

No big deal. They happen all the time. but once you get past, you know, five, six, seven distribution days in a short amount of time, eight distribution, nine distribution day, now you're starting to get to a point where if you study prior pullbacks and or consolidations, topping periods in the market, you tend to see five, six, seven, eight, nine distribution days happen before the market pulls back. And then boom, the market pulls back. Not always, but that typically.

tends to happen. And folks, that's what it's happening now. If you look at the QQQ, the NASDAQ, or look at the SPY, the S&P 500, you can see a pattern of this is a good word of elevated distribution, meaning more down days than up days, on heavier volume. And volume is the key there because it shows you what the big institutions are doing. If I buy 100 shares of XYZ, it's not really going to move the market. I buy 1,000 shares. I buy 50,000 shares. I go buy I can buy 10,000 shares, you know, 100,000 shares of something that's liquid like the QQQ that trades 50 million shares on average every day. It's not going to matter. It doesn't move the market. I can buy a million, 500,000 shares of the QQQ at $500. It's big money. And it's barely going to move. It's not going to, it's a blimp on the radar. 50 million shares on average traded. So the big institutions, when volume adds up day and day and day out, day and day out, and you see volume show up that supports, oh, and the market's down, price and volume, right? That's a subtle sign that the institutional investors, net net,

even individuals, there's more distribution, more selling. They're distributing the stock than buying. And that's what we're starting to see now. So it's elevated distribution over the last two, three, or five weeks, six, seven, eight, nine days, depending on eight days, depending on how you want to count it, small down days, big down days. Either way, it's the spirit of law, right? The exact number of distribution days, you can pull up the daily chart of the QQQ or the S&P, SPY, and look it up. Seven, eight days, depending on seven, eight days, depending on how you want to count it. Elevated distribution is the message I want to drive home. Which means what? A little bit of a cautious stance from where I sit. And it means what?

Let's look at support. What are support levels? Look at the 21-day moving average for the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. We're right there. The next level is the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average, which I'll give you exact levels for here based on Friday's close. The 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average right near 499. I'm going to round up for the 50 and down for the 200. They're basically overlapping now. 50 is a hair below the 499, 498 quarter more or less, or thereabouts, and the 200 days 499.450, let's call it 499.50. So 499, 500 for a round number, is an important line in the sand. That 21-day moving average is 5 and a quarter. We're right around there. We're right there. For the QQQ. For the S&P 500, it's going to be the same thing. We're going to look at the 21-day moving

average, which were, you know, just cut below now. 594, 11. You got the 50 day at 572 and the 200 day at 579. So here for the S&P, the 50 days still below the 200 day by five points. So on the SPY. So 579 is the next line in the sand that I'm watching. And you have an old chart high from March or 576. So really 579, 576, 572.

which is still ways to go. But if we start pulling back, you know, we easily can have the market pull into those indices, the 200 day or the 50 day. Easily. Now, there's other indices and you can pull them up. The DIA is a Dow.

IWM is the Russell. The MDI is the mid-cap 400, mid-cap stocks. But for now, I'm going to talk about the S&P and the NASDAQ. Those tend to be the liquid leader. where the big liquid institutional quality stocks reside. And a lot of these markets, these indices, excuse me, are market cap weighted.

So the big market cap stocks tend to move the market more than the small stocks. Again, for the most part. So the message here is elevated distribution, a little caution. That's all. On the flip side, we're only two or three percent below an all-time high. So one or two good up days, and boom, we can break out of this long, trading range. Up next, I'll talk a lot more about the market and a lot more about stocks. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show

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All right. So we spoke about distribution. The other thing. Hot open, followed by a weak close. You open up and then you turn lower. Subtle but important sign, hey, more sellers are out there than buyers. On cue before the close today, Trump came out with some news saying he's open to a ceasefire. He's saying that there might be a trade deal with India and Pakistan or some news there.

You know, this and the other thing, as expected. When the markets go down, got to be careful. Because right now it's just we're starting to see signs, right? semiconductors earlier today turned lower dragged the market down because of some news coming out of or coming out saying that the U.S. might curb some of the Allies chip companies that are factories in China some negative news with respect to trade let's put it that way and some early notes from let's see from Gary what else tablecoin you got look at coin and CRCL you can add that let's see uh Okay, guys want to make sure I get all the notes from Gary covered.

But yeah, the futures were down a lot. Yesterday, the market was closed. And then, because Trump threatened to go into Iran, and then what happened? Backed off and said, okay, we've got two weeks to go. Futures rebounded. And then the market opened higher and then reversed and closed lower. So we're in a situation now where you've got elevated distribution. You've got on one hand, like on the down.

downside. The bears are going to argue. You've got lots of negative headlines. Inflation likely to go higher. Why? Because remember, in two weeks, this month is over, or even 10 days from now, the month is over, or thereabouts, and the quarter is over. And the first half of the year is over. What happens at the beginning of every quarter, we enter earning season. We get the jobs data. And we get inflation data in the middle of the month, right? So in the middle of July, or in a few weeks time, we're going to get all that information. Okay, great. Well, earlier today, the Fed came out, one of the Fed guys, and said, hey, the Fed's open to cutting rates in July. Guess what, folks? It's the reaction to the news that matters, not the news itself. Mui,

moly important. Super important. It's the reaction to the news. So the Fed basically telegraphed, said, yeah, we're going to cut rates. Okay, what happens? Markets down. The Fed hasn't cut rates yet. But remember, the Fed has a dual mandate. There's a lot of talk. Trump's putting pressure on Powell saying too late Powell, this, that, and the other thing. Look, it's real simple. The Fed has a dual mandate. Keep unemployment down. Good. Check that box. Countries creating a lot of jobs and unemployment rates relatively low, so on and so forth. No problem. The second part of the Fed's mandate is keep inflation near 2%. Okay, guess what?

Inflation is above 2%. On Wednesday, the Fed had a meeting. They lowered their guidance for GDP for this year, and they raised their guidance for inflation. That's big. Why? Because that's part of the Fed's mandate. Keep inflation near 2%.

And guess what? Inflation is above 2%. And when inflation is above 2%, what does that mean? It means the Fed's not eager to cut rates, irrespective of whatever pressure comes from the White House or from anyone else, until either one of those two dual mandates is hit, which the data changes and allows them the cut rates. If we get inflation below 2%, sure, they can cut rates. the economy slows down a lot or unemployment goes through the roof, sure, they can cut rates. But for now, they've already telegraphed. They're going to cut rates twice this year.

Okay. But they're not in a rush, and that's why they haven't cut yet. So oil prices are going up because of the situation in the Middle East. We'll see two more weeks down the road. We've seen this before from Trump where he had tariffs, gave an extension. Extension came, gave another extension. We'll see what happens this time around. hopefully cooler heads prevail.

I don't want to see war. I don't like people dying. I don't like any of that kind of stuff. But at the same time, you know, people need to do what they need to do. It's real simple. So you have a oil situation. If you're looking at the data, the Fed's data dependent, right? The economy's acting strong, considering everything.

Inflation is likely to go up because oil energy prices in general are up. Okay. Now, if this gets a ceasefire in the Middle East and oil comes right back down again, sure, it's a one-off, it's transitory, it's a whatever word you want to use. No problem. But if inflation, if oil stays high, that could become a concern for the next inflation report we see in early July or mid-July. The jobs report in July is going to be important. And then, of course, earning season.

But for now, even with all of the negative headlines, we don't have a trade deal. The market rally from April all of the, the way up until now and came within 2% of its all-time high because the tariffs are going to be extensions or extensions are given for the tariffs. Tariffs are going to be reduced. Okay. And we're told we're going to have trade deals. Last I check, we don't have any major trade deals yet. There's talks and that's good, but there's no actual deal yet. So the market understands that. Hopefully deals get done. Again, while we're very news-driven, one good headline, one good tweet, one good data point,

you know, could easily send the market higher. But if you look back, the market's been basing or trading sideways for months and months and months all year, if not going back to Q4 of last year. You know, the S&P 500, the SPY, let's look at that, was at 600, 609 in Q4 of last year, at 586. And we're right there now, 590 and change. We're right there. Haven't moved anywhere since, what, six, seven, eight months now, if not longer?

That happens. After a huge move up, it's normal to see the market move sideways for months and months and months and months. And that's what's happening now. And the QQQQ, same thing. Hasn't got anywhere since Q4 of last year. One or the fact that we're only 3% thereabouts, 4% depending on the index below all-time highs, some of them down more, like the small caps are down a lot more. That to me is a bullish sign. Why?

Because, again, it's the reaction to the news. I can sit here and tell you all the bullish things in the market. I can sit here and tell you all the bearish things. what matters the price. Where's the price? Where are the all-time highs? What's a percent difference? Just a few percentage points, single digits. Not a lot. One or two good update the Fed could cut. We could have a trade deal announced. We could have a piece in the Middle East. Whatever. And boom, markets off to the races. Literally off to the races. And we're only 3% below all-time highs. Thereabouts. It won't take much.

that's a bullish side of the equation. The distribution, you know, the other side is, hey, we're seeing elevated distribution. We can easily pull back. None of these things, the bullish events have occurred yet. Be careful. Caution. That's it. Until we break out, we're still in the base.

The base could last another six months, 12 months. Who knows? Three months. Could end tomorrow. Just take your time. take your time. All right. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investor's age. This message is brought to you by Colagard. If you ever printed out directions and hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time for you to screen for colon cancer. Luckily,

things are a lot easier these days, even screening for colon cancer. When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people. With more options than ever, it's key to start screening at 45 if you are at average risk. The Colagard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your door, so you can use it in the privacy of your own home. With just three simple steps, set up, sample, and ship, completing your Colagard test is easier than finding the right track on your mixtape. If you're 45 or older, and at average risk, ask your doctor about the Colagard test available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast. Do not use the Colagard products if you have had

adenomas, which are a type of colon polyp that can sometimes become cancer, inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes, a personal or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer, or a positive result from another colon cancer screening method within that test's recommended screening interval. Coligard results should be interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer. Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy. A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. Patients with a negative test result should discuss with their doctor when they need to be tested again. False positives and false negative results can occur. Do you still trust the corporate media?

I know I don't. Get the real facts. The inside story behind the scenes in the Senate in the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court. Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the Iheart Radio app by clicking the attached link today. Paid for by Truth Encourage Pack. Not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. Truthancorac.com. Cashflow crunch. On-Dak's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000

right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by on deck or Celtic Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval.

We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to garyk.com,

rewind, fast forward, listen to it on any device, anytime you want, all for free on garyk.com. All right. Spoke about the market. Spoke about the fact that we're seeing elevated distribution, not just today, but over the last several times over the last several weeks. And we spoke about the fact the market's, what, about 3% below an all-time high, thereabouts, depending on the index you look at, 3-4 and change. What does that mean? You know, put the pieces together.

It's all about probability. The future by definition in life is unknown. No one knows what's going to happen this weekend. No one knows where the market's going to close on Monday. It's literally impossible. A year from now what's going to happen? Who knows? But good news is you don't have to.

And let's talk about risk and reward. Some of my favorite subjects. Why? Because at the end of the day, in the beginning of the day, the middle of the day, this business, it's about risk versus reward. Again, removing the emotions. I'm not talking about a stock or a crypto or real estate investment or a house that I love or what, it's nothing to do with the emotions. It's our VR like the kids say. One v1. Two, they don't even say versus anymore. It's too long. Just V1. 1V.R. Risk versus reward.

I have a podcast where I interview money managers and CEOs of publicly traded companies. It's called Smart Money Circle. You can go on YouTube or any podcast platform and listen to it. And I was interviewing a money manager. I passed a trillion dollars in AUM interviewed on the show. I'm over 24 seasons, 240 episodes, and I love this stuff. I love to learn. The whole idea is to get timeless advice from the smart money.

Okay, great. I'm interviewing one of the big money managers on the show. A guy manages a few billion dollars. And he goes, Adam. we're not buying and selling stocks. They go, what are you talking about? I'm thinking my head. I'm like, what's this guy talking about?

Brilliant man. He goes, we're buying and selling risk. And when he said that, it's like the penny dropped. Boom. It just got it. The light bulb went off. It's true. When you remove everything and you think about fractions, right?

They teach our kids reduce the fractions, right? At least common denominator, so on and so forth. When you remove everything, I'm going to risk a dollar, the proverbial dollar, a million dollars, $100,000, that doesn't matter. I'm going to risk a dollar. Money scales, right? So it's a dollar, enter as many zeros as you want. I'm going to risk a dollar, hopefully to make at least $101, a dollar and a penny, right? If not $2, $5, $10, so on and so forth. That's more or less the business we're in. Stocks don't go straight up. Over time, thankfully, they have up until this point, right? Buffett

calls it the American Tailwind. In my book, I cite Buffett and I call it the great American tailwind. And that's beautiful to know that. Even now, April, March, February, March, market sold off hard, and then boom, April comes roaring back, you know, into May and now into June. Over time, there's an upward bias. That's great. But we have vicious and violent bare markets. So back in 1998, there was an Asian financial crisis, and there was a big hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management, LTCM for short. And it was a notorious one. It was really, really big.

It was during the dot-com bubble, but the market had a big correction in the summer of 98 because this long-term capital management failed. The Fed had to step in and save him and bail them out. One of the co-founders, I interviewed on the show. And this guy was there, front and center for one of the biggest failures. in hedge fund history. He came back and he learned his lessons and very nice, very smart guy and nice guy. And in it, he talked about, well, when I interviewed him, he said, listen, if you knew the stock

market's going to go up over the last hundred years and you go back 100 years and you say, okay, you should put as much money into it as possible, right? If the S&P, let's say, goes from one to 100, why not? Put as much as you can. And if you can borrow, here's the word leverage, why not? not two exit, three exit, five exit, right? If you borrow as much and it's going from one to a hundred, it's a short bet, right? And here's where the power of risk and the power of leverage come into play. If you were to five X your investment, going along the stock market over the last

hundred years, you would have went broke several times. What? How's that possible, Adam? I'll tell you. because when you understand math and numbers, and this goes back to the importance of keeping your losses small and letting your winners run, you understand that it's not linear. When you go down 50%, let's say you buy something at 10, it goes to 5, you lost 50%. You're now at 5. What percentage do you need for it to go back to 10? I can't hear you, so I'm going to give you a second. One, two, I'll just tell you the answer. It has to go up 100%. You lost 50.

It has to go up 100. That's not linear, right? So as you go through, I have a page in my book, which gives you the table. As you go through and you look at it, right? You understand if you're down 10, you need 11% to get back to even. You're down 25. You need 33% to get back to even. even, you know, and it goes larger and larger and larger as the percentage decline increases, right?

So over time, if you would have five-xed your money, in 1987, the Dow fell 22% in a day or 21 and change. If you five-xed it, you'd be broke. Zero. Literally zero. Over time, bare markets happen and they lose 30%, 40%, 50%, the NASDAQ fell 80% after the dot-com crashed. 2000, March or 2000, October of 2002. Why am I sharing all this with you? Because more bear markets happen. Another bear market will happen at some point in the future. We're not there now, but it could be.

Make sure you're prepared. That's the point of distribution, the risk. Understanding the risk side of the equation will set you way ahead. And that's what I want to just really, really emphasize, because now the market's 3% below an all-time high. It looks strong. Great. Okay. You know, great, right?

Pause for a second. What's important here? What if we get another bear market? In 2022, 23, the market fell about 20, 30%. In April, the market fell 20%. Right? These things happen. They rebounded.

But sometimes it takes a long time before it rebounds. Here's the math. You go down 10%, you need 11.1% gain to get back to even. You're down 20%. You need a 25% gain to get back to even. You're down 40%. You need a 66% gain to get back to even. Down 50%.

You need 100% gain to get back to even. You're down 60%. You're 150% gain to get back to even. Down 70%. You need a 233% gain to get back to even. You're down 80%. You need a 400% gain to get back to even. You're down 90%.

Ready for this, folks? You need a 900% gain to get back to even. Not to make money, just to get back to even. It's on page 184 in my book. Unbelievable. That's just math. Notice, I didn't say Apple or Tesla or Google or Microsoft or anything. It's just numbers.

My kids. Middle school and elementary school understand this kind of percent declines. Maybe not the elementary one, but the middle school does. She knows her numbers. You're down 50. You need 100 percent gain to get back even. Keep the loss of small. Risk management is super, super important.

Because if you can keep the loss of small, the drawdowns, which are inevitable, it's just a fancy Wall Street word, which means your account value decreases or loses of value. You know, the portfolio goes down over time because you're not going to be right all the time. And even normally, if you buy and hold it forever, you can have drawdowns. The market goes down, right? It doesn't just go straight up. We all wish it did, but it doesn't. So understanding that and keeping those drawdown small is really important. It's a superpower. You can have several small, single-digit drawdowns. You can bounce back much faster. And it's okay. That's the other side of it. There's no point in beating yourself up. We all have them. They happen to everybody.

Even the greatest investors in history go through periods where their accounts lose value. Again, the super secret is keeping those laws as small. So you can stay in the game. This is an infinite game, infinite business. The markets are never going to go anywhere. They'll outlive all of us. The rules of an infinite game. are completely different than a finite game. I play chess, certain number of players, certain number of pieces, one winner, one loser. It's not the rule here. It's different.

Infinite number of players, no ending, no beginning. It wasn't beginning, but there's no ending. And it grows and grows and grows and grows over time. So what can we control? Risk and reward. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Saran. This is the one and only Investors Edge.

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Investers Edge with Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience anytime you want on any device. All right, so we spoke about the market, spoke about, you know, bullish catalysts that are coming up, bearish catalysts. spoke about distribution, spoke about the importance of respecting risk, cutting those losses, keeping those losses small, and letting your winners run. Now, other thing, I get asked a lot, we spoke about institutional investors, individual investors. How do you find, you know, we're looking for cues or clues, distribution selling by big institutions.

It's a subtle sign, but it paves away. We can easily have a pullback. We have seven, eight days of distribution, nine days depending on the index, six, seven days. you know, we have elevated distribution. All right. The market's way above the 50-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, easily can pull, think of like a magnet, easily could pull back into those areas. All right. What other clues do we have that institutional investors are buying stocks? It's price and volume, right, folks? All right, every day I like to go through.

Here's another clue. And I look at stocks breaking out to new highs. I look for stocks that are up on. volume. If I have a stock that trades 42,000 shares on average, I'm looking at it right now. And today, average is 42,000. Today it had 800,000. That's not like Gary says, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying. That tends to be the big institutions, right? So I just happen, it's ticker simple NNNN, NBio Biotech. And it's up, geez, 39% today. It happens, huge move up on volume. again, I'm just going through sorting by strongest percent move, right? So things up 39 percent today.

There's going to be news. I'm not buying it. It's super extended. It's super illiquid. Only 42,000 shares. All right. I want to at least see it, right? I go to the next one, GRR, R, and then three R's.

Up 34% today on massive volume. Average volume there is 1.5 million shares thereabouts. And today you've got 12.3 million shares. All right. Up 34%. It's got to be some kind of news related. I don't like the pattern. I'm not really buying it.

Right now, they lost money last year. They are turning positive this year and next year. All right. I could see it. Couch base, ticker symbol BASE, up 29% today, breaking out to breakaway gap. All right, that looks like a buyout. Yep, $1.5 billion buyout offer. Okay, next one, GMS, up 23%, 24%,

today on earnings. earnings were down 36%. Doesn't matter. Stocks up 23%. That's what matters. Why? Because the market's a forward-looking mechanism. And by definition,

earnings and economic data are rear-view mirror phenomenons. So we're looking forward, right? So this guy breaks out. It doesn't hit a new all-time high, but came pretty far. GMS is a ticker. Let's see, the all-time high there.

Almost an all-time high was 105. You're at 100. It closed at 100 today. The high today was 105. 15. Old high was 105.54. So almost an all-time high. Doesn't matter. Big gap, closed lower half of the range. All right. Noted, right? CRCL Circle Internet Group, digital currency stock, up 20% today. Huge move. Recent IPO. Extended. I'll pass. A-A-O-I up 18% today. Breaking out of a low-level base, 2116, was an old pivot point, turning profitable this year and then making more money next year.

Okay, it's got my attention. Let me do some more digging. Maybe there's something there. So I'd write that one down, A-A-O-I. But their earnings, their EPS score is low, their relative strength score is a little bit light. Their overall composite ratings light on market search. Noted, right? Next one, T-SAT, T-SAT.

Then I'll go through this every single day right after the open. And I'll go through. And I want to see what the big institutions are buying. I can't see their orders. I'm not privy to that, but they can't hide. Again, here's Oscar Health, OSCR. I interviewed the CEO of this company a while ago. A super smart guy too, by the way.

Average volume there is 9.8 million shares. Today had 70 million. Again, it's not Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying. Stock's up 13% after being up huge on Wednesday, right? Someone's in their buying. All right, noted. You got four days of above average volume. Stock went from 13 to about 21.

Someone's in there doing something big, right? Next one. Go through it. No, no, no. And again, you say no to most of these because most of them don't meet my criteria. And that's okay. Some of them are too extended. Some of them are too illiquid.

You know, Kroger had a huge move today. K.R. Up 9.8%. Average volume is 7.8 million was up on 30 million shares today. Again, not on earnings, not Aunt Mary Uncle Bob doing that buying. Big institutions. Noted. It's above the 50.

out of a downward trend line, coming up the right side of a base, it's on my radar. All right? I'll look into it more. Now I've got two stocks, right? The rest of them, not so much. Then lemonade, LMND. All right, earnings aren't there. They lose money, but I get the story there. They do insurance online. And that gives me a small edge. Every day I do it and share it with people on find leading stocks.com. I want to see breakouts. I want to see setups. I want to see what jumps out Let me. Right away, right after the open, 10 a.m. email goes out every single day. The market's open. Why? Keeps my finger on the pulse.

And it helps me find themes. On Monday of this week, nuclear stocks were on, I was going to say fire, but that's not a really good word to use with nuclear stock. They were very strong, right? When you see four, five, six nuclear stocks all moving up on volume or tech stocks or gold stocks or or, or guess what? It gives you a clue. And when these big institutions buy, they tend to keep buying.

It's not just a one day or a one off. And again, mastering the art of saying no is a superpower in life and in the market. Most things aren't a fit and that's okay. Most things are not a fit and that's okay. It's just not a match. You just need one or two and you're very, very happy. One or two good stocks with the right position, good move up can make your year. You don't need 500 stocks or 1,000 stocks or 200.

You don't need that. Three or four good ones, wow, as long as the losses are small and the other ones. And that gives me a small edge on what the big institutions are doing. I always like to say in the book, I say it, the market speaking. And then I ask, are you listening? Our job is to interpret what's happening with the market. Stay in harmony with the market. Not harmony. It's my play on the word harmony, which I love that word. Harm money. Stay in harmony

with the market. I used to try to fight the market. Ego, me versus the market. I'm going to win. Get upset. Emotions. Ba, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Get all heated. Nonsense. Make the trend your friend. It's an old Wall Street adage. All right, everybody. I think that's all the time we have for today. As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. It's an absolute pleasure. I believe Gary will be back on Monday. have a great weekend. Take your time, respect to risk, and our biggest winners are in front of us. Have a great weekend, everybody, and I'll speak to you again soon. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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