Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Elevator Down

Episode Date: December 15, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

I earned my degree online at Arizona State University. I chose to get my degree at ASU because I knew that I'd get a quality education. They were recognized for excellence and that I would be prepared for the workforce upon graduating. To be associated with ASU, both as a student and alum, it makes me extremely proud and having experienced the program I know now that I'm set up for success. Learn more at ASUonline.ASU.edu. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money.

Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is December 15th, middle of the month, 2012. Hope you're having a good day.

Don't be looking at your 401ks. it was not a pretty sight hopefully for better days tomorrow we shall explain but first if you do not get this radio show in your city we will post it at garyk.com

we will also posted on our Twitter feed if you want to follow me on Twitter just go to Twitter put my name in or at our website press the Twitter button you can email me Just be nice. Just be respectful. Nice and respect is very good. We respect all. Do you know I get along best with the socialists and Marxists out there? I have great debates with socialists and Marxists. And I've converted a few. Anyway. Okay. So we're going to do a deep dive into worries. And as you know, we're not Cassandra's. We're not into the world ending.

but we believe in reality. We don't pull any punches. We hit you right between the eyes based on what we see on the ground, based on fact, based on having no bias, agenda, or ulterior motive. We take no sides of the aisle because both sides suck. the only side we take is your side and my side. That's it. And we wish we could have better news for you. We wish we can tell you that rainbows are coming out of, you know, you get the point. We can't. And that is because of the facts, the simple facts that are staring straight in the face.

of those that are running the country, have control of the levers, unfortunately have control of the levers. As we have said to you, you know, if you went to the doctor because you broke your left arm and he puts a cast on your right arm, are you ever going back to that doctor? Hell no. But unfortunately, when it comes to the people running the show,

they're lifers. And we keep electing them. And even if you elect the other person on the other side, they suck too. And then we have to get to the important point. Something that we'd rather not talk about. Something that we'd rather not deal with. Something that we think and believe should not even be in the realm. But they are.

As I've said to you many times on this show, how to hell did we ever get to the point where one man in his whims, now get this and I'm going to just simplify it, can sit down at a desk, at a computer, and punch in the printing to up to $9 trillion to interfere with free markets, to take interest rates down to the bus, in order to spike up asset prices, make the wealthy even wealthier, while screwing savers with 0% interest rates. Just so you know, right now, we're getting 3, 4% on our money. We were getting 0 months ago, all because the whims of one man, not market forces, not free markets, not the decision-making of investors, traders, speculators at a given time, at a given price, at a given size, but one man in his whims who is proven, he doesn't have a freaking clue what is going on. I don't think he can tell you what day yesterday was.

Oh, wait a minute, yes he can because that's all they do. They're great at what we call the look back. So let me put the wheels in motion and why we're in position. We're in this position. Why we've had inflation. Why you're paying five and six bucks for a dozen eggs. Though the good news is inflation has been waning, we told you that in June. So here's why. When one man takes rates down to zero percent, it creates massive bubbles and one, wealth, but it's steroid wealth. You know when you take steroids, if you take too much, boy, you get bigger, but your heart gets enlarged, you get pimples all over your back, you get heart attacks, people die from

them. There are other things I can't describe that could happen to you. So short-term, great, long-term, sucks. so what he did was create this mirage of wealth off of the creation of $9 trillion out of thin air and it may just be words $9 trillion you're just going to have to believe me when I tell you it is gargantuan and what it created was the coins we warned you about we were right The Robin Hood stocks, the short-squeeze stocks, the SPACs, the marijuana stocks, the everything-electric vehicle and all that, and it's all crashed. The ridiculous IPO valuations, they've all crashed.

And when I mean crashed, we're talking 60, 70, 80, 90%. I read to you the other day a bunch of IPOs that were trading at 70 cents that came out at 16 bucks. That all came from Jay Powell. Easy money creates greed. What else did it do? It created massive wealth in real estate. Why? Because the access to capital was artificially ridiculously easy.

It was free money to get mortgages after your tax write-off of the interest. So what ended up happening in so many areas, massive move to the upside. But what does that create eventually? Inability to afford. And when there's an inability to afford, buying dries up. And then interest rates to accommodate for all the easy money that created the inflation, start spiking while Jay Powell's saying, don't worry, everything's a.

Okay. And guess what he had to end up doing? play catch up to the interest rates that were crushing the markets and creating all this inflation. And let me be clear, I don't care what anybody tells you. It was Jay Powell that created this massive inflation. And of course, there was some helping, massive spending by government. For a while, it was the Russia thing, which spike oil prices for a bit.

But he did it. And he kept saying it was transitory. Janet Yellen, another bonehead said it was transitory. The administration said, don't worry. And all of a sudden, we're at 9% inflation. All hell's breaking loose in the markets. And then all of a sudden he wakes up one day. After taking his geritol.

Oh, crap. Oh, crap. Look at those numbers. And he goes into his little handbook and says, okay, I've got to start raising rates. But guess what? He was already way behind. It was like him racing Usain Bolt.

He was so far behind. So while the market rates are at 2 and 3%. He's at 0. He goes to a quarter percent. He goes to a half percent. He goes to 1%. And it still doesn't help. And interest rates on the long end keep going up.

And what is that doing? Hurting the market's hurting you. Mortgage rates. Go from what? Three to seven? Go look at an amortization table for that and see how much extra money you're paying on a monthly basis when that happens. So he's behind big time on the,

inflation front and then finally starts playing catch up you got that he starts playing catch up on the inflation that he caused behind big time guess what he's doing now he's now behind big time on an economy that's softening very quickly and in a very big way because of everything that's been going on and he didn't listen to the market when inflation hit Now, when the recession is hitting, he's not listening to that. Outcome. Up next. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

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It doesn't get better than this. So, you got interest rates skyrocketing because of the inflation he created and then he starts playing catch-up. But because of the interest rates skyrocketing because of the inflation he created, the economy gets in trouble. Because of the inflation, the economy gets in trouble. Because of the reverse wealth effect, the economy gets in trouble. Because of taxes going up from the Marxist in the White House, the economy gets in trouble. So what does the market do? Not Jay Powell. Interest rates stop going up. The 10-year goes to 4.

4.3% drops the 3.45 as I speak. That's the market talking. So when the market was rising, the interest weights were rising, he was behind, behind, behind, behind, plays catch up, finally gets there. And by the time he gets there, interest rates are coming down, indicating something. Trouble. And as I've said to you on this show, guess what we're seeing? Go look for yourself. Savings rates of this country is plunging.

Credit card usage is skyrocketing. Imagine those two things. What does that tell you? And that says on a whole. It tells you the consumer spent up. They have to go into their credit card to pay for stuff. Which means the consumer eventually hits a wall. If the consumer is 70% of the economy

and the consumer hits a wall, what does that mean? Nothing good. If the consumer stops spending at Lulu Lemon, well, first off, Lulu Lemon stock, goes from 386 down to 325 off of that news. And if sales start dropping in different areas, guess what happens to jobs?

We've already seen it. The crypto business, a ton of people fired, a ton of things going out of business. The mortgage business, a ton of people can't. Private equity. There's no buying out and private equity business. I know there's a couple this week, but on the whole. There's no IPOs hardly.

Guess what's happening in those areas? People losing their jobs. What if it really starts to get into the economy? Combine with savings rates plunging, credit card you should skyrocket and the job market getting in trouble? Sorry, there's your recession, not small, but potentially deep. Today, retail sales numbers were down 6 tenths of percent, a big drop, Empire manufacturing, down 11.202, a big drop, Philly Fed, 13.8 percent drop, big drop. These are recessionary numbers. What is Jay Powell doing? While interest rates are going down, the real market going down,

to account for an economy that looks to be getting in trouble, they went past the market. While the 10 years at 3.45, he's now 4.5. They're saying they're going to 5. Guess what? They're now behind the other way. You couldn't get a bigger band of misfits. And unfortunately, we're all the victims.

That in a nutshell is what's happening and that in a nutshell while the market why the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray errors with the man you're either in or out of the market. What is proprietary indicators? Go check it out.

Investment dash models.com That's one of the reasons why the Dow was down 764, the NASDAQ 99, NASDAQ 100, 360, NASDAQ 100, 360, NASDAQ 130, NASDAQ 100, 395, the socks down 115, the transports almost 400, advanced declines were terrible, up down volume was terrible, new yearly lows, just skyrocketed to just a few to 456. The control freaks are now controlling the other way, or at least trying to. And there's the gist today. Now, there are plenty of days where I can report to you, hey, the Dow was down 760, but,

And that's important, of course. But there are certain days more important than others. We have given you a nice little picture in the last few days of a market over the last bunch of weeks. Trying to break out above range. What do we tell you? We gave the little – imagine if you go through your attic and then Jason from 5 days of 13 is up there and he takes and slams the attic door on your head. Well, that happened a couple of times this week. price tried to bust out we're up 700 one day finished only up 100 yes they were up 300 finished down

100 uh today we'd finish down 760 so all thought of breaking out to the upside of these few weeks forget about it for now guess what though what did we tell you in tight ranges there's support there's resistance to support price on the downside guess what a bunch of names broke through the downside today and some areas broke through the downside today, and that is not really good news. Considering a couple of things we've already told you. Number one, financials on Monday, we said to you something was up. Regional banks were getting crushed. Other banks and lenders getting hit hard. What was number two? And this has been going on since the low in October. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, the Russell 2000, the risk on indices, the risk appetite,

could hardly budge off the lows. They made one move off the lows and then sat. And we warned you. What did we warn you about? It's not good when the Dow leads. That eventually something's up. That the market is made up of risk appetite. Bull markets are made up of risk appetite.

And our job is to measure that risk appetite. And there's been no risk appetite off these lows of October 13th. Dow types. You know what had me doing? buying boring and then boom today so i've yet to do my scans but i can tell you flat out the worst of areas the russle two thousand oh by the way don't worry it's only two thousand stocks handily breaks below the 50-day moving outage tape which by the way never got going the uh nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 and by the way both uh the russell below the support of the

past few weeks the nasdaq broke below the 50 day and a little bit below the support of the last few weeks and so did the the NASDAQ 100 the S&P which is stronger than those three smidge below also

so not a very good day and when I go through individual names and scan I wish I had better news Adobe's up in the aftermarket that's better news Stocks down a billion percent, but it's up in the aftermarket. Up next, we got more.

Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once,

and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker. because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So I think I explained it very well. I'm pretty sure I just did. Which begs the question, what do we need? this central bank for what do we need j palp we don't he's the nightmare of the economy in the markets it's a he's a nightmare and again nothing personal he's just a nightmare he could not be any more wrong in everything he has done and i will tell you this and i'm very careful with my words if he goes too far the other way in this type of an economy in market coming off a pandemic with a Marxist running the show out of the White House, debt-laden, market's got to go a lot lower.

Now, keep in mind, we will act accordingly. We deal with what the information the market gives us, not what we think is going to happen. but we put the pen to the paper on valuation, earnings, and the like. We've said to you many times before on this show, with no joy, the most powerful person on earth who has the ability to take rates down to zero screwing every saver, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob, out of their riskless income, investments while creating massive gargantuan bubbles that is absolutely destroyed wealth from an unwary public that thinks trees grow to the sky and coins are going to make them wealthy

is still running the show and now he's woefully wrong the other way to think one man can control a 40 trillion dollar economy excuse me 40 trillion dollar market in 20 trillion dollar economy. It scares the living willies out of me. Now we're hearing, oh, well, eventually he'll pivot. He didn't sound like it yesterday. And remember when we said to you, as interest rates go up, the market goes down, we warn you recently, well, interest rates have been going down, but interest rates were down today and the market was crushed. That's because finally Jay Powell has taken control the other way as he is now above the market. He was below the market when he should have been with the market and now he's above the market

when he should be with the market. He's a doofus. We'll continue to take this day by day, but today sucked. On a technical basis, lots of deterioration, lots of what we call rolling over the stair steps heading down. Now, tomorrow's Friday. Why do I bring that up? Because when all is said and done, what we do on the weekends is we look at the weeklies, the weeklies. What the weeklies do is really flush out a lot of big picture. If we can have a really good day tomorrow in the market, that can help the weekly. But I got to tell you, absent Adobe, up 20 bucks in the aftermarket, which, you know, it's still way down.

And with today, the market's not down that much this week. We had a good up day. But we're now at the lows of the week. And as I, because I'm ambidextrose here, as I'm doing little scans, as I'm talking, man, oh, man, I do. Some of these charts are big tops. ladies and gentlemen, so notwithstanding bounces, the die may be cast here of at least a high of this counter-trend move. Also of note, Netflix has been a big help to the big names.

It's actually acted pretty darn good off the lows recently, even though it's still way off the highs. In case you didn't know, Netflix went to a subscribership where you pay Advertisings involved, it turns out that they missed the number by a long shot, and they're having to give back money to the advertisers. Guess what? Netflix was down a big, juicy 9% today, and that's breaking near-term support. That doesn't help. Remember we've been telling you about Apple on a bigger term basis?

It better not break 134, down almost 7 today to 136. half volume patterns remain pretty fricking crummy that's just a couple of things Tesla was actually up today because the news came out why the latest moved down oh uh Elon Musk sold another three billion dollars worth of stock this is like the fourth go round remember the first go around when he said oh this is this is it I won't be selling more now he's done three other tranches of selling It's good to be able to sell $3 billion of stock, right? And that finished up today, so it's no longer at a new yearly low, but it's still touching it.

And as I look at the screen, housing stocks are up today. Why would housing be up? Interest rates dropping. Ten-year yield coming down. Down it's going to get legs, but rhyme in a reason for that one. after that ain't much I'm just looking around a seat of red a little bit of green

to give you an idea advanced the clients today on the New York 776 on the upside 3375 NASDAQ upside 1079 downside 3259 that ain't no hill for a climber

and as I'm just looking around, ick, Ick, Ike, Costco down 19. You know there's trouble in the market when Costco just was 542, it's now 463 in two and a half weeks.

That was off a comp number. And as I am looking at retail stocks, as George Costanza once said, the sea was angry that day, my friend, like an old man trying to return soup of the deli. That's what retail stocks look like, off of these retail numbers. And guess what your Hansman Buff Toast has been doing as of late?

Channel checking. Small sample. But I'm walking into targets and Walmarts and other places and just, how's biz? Just casually. How's biz? You know what I got from a few in the last week? that's E-H

one of them said for a holiday season it ain't a holiday season and that was in one of the superstores so again I wish I had better things to tell you we have no agenda if there's great things to tell you I'll yell and scream them

in other news and I got to tell you one of my favorite movies of all time is one flew over the cuckoo's nest. You ever seen that with Jack Nicholson? Go read the news that came out of Donald Trump today. Ex-President Trump. He announced a major announcement for today, and everybody with bated breath was waiting on it.

Go look at the announcement today and report back to me. If he was smart, go back to the hotels and the golf courses. Up next, this, that and the other thing and whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. in your wallet. Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the

whole process simple. You record your show, upload. it once and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer

to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Hey, yo. By the way, the news is the president.

Imagine you announce another go to run for President of the United States. And then two days ago, say, or is it three days ago, whatever. On Thursday, I have this major. announcement, this major announcement, gargantuan announcement. You know what the gargantuan announcement is? You can spend $99 and buy some NFTs of Donald Trump. I repeat, go back to your golf courses, go back to your hotels. I've played your golf courses as some of the greatest in the world.

I've stayed at your hotels some of the greatest out there. Do what you do best. It's not leadership anymore. in any way, shape, or form. I would say it to his face. With whatever do respect. And this is not a rub on you Trumpians. I respect everybody in their opinion.

Your right to love, like, hate, whoever that may be. But man, oh man, the dude does not have the leadership skills. in my humble opinion racist commentary on Elaine Chow who by the way used to be on this show every month

during the Bush years when she was Labor Secretary lovely woman racist commentary out of an ex-president come on stop the crap we wish the man well we want him to do great things

if he would be a leader and show greatness I would talk differently, but man, oh man, enough. And I will tell you, I have a huge independent following. Huge independent following. They've all, and not just now, have been jumping off the bandwagon. He lost the election because of it. He lost the president election to a Marxist.

Because of the independents just had enough. He did not listen to me. I send messages to the administration. Can you stop them? You know what I get back? Nope. I got pipelines. What must be stopped going forward is this dude running the show right now

because he doesn't even think we're a country. He doesn't even think we're a country. What he's doing with immigration is a crime. It's a criminal act, in my humble opinion. I tell him to his face. I try to help him. I try to give him constructive criticism. I have a pipeline to him, but I gather it doesn't get to him. If you're not protecting the citizenry at the borders, by the way, you all try to get into Mexico. See what Mexican authorities do. That's controlled immigration. Try getting into Mexico. By the way, go Google how to become a citizen of Mexico. No, really.

They understand it. And that's just one thing. And, you know, the other thing I worry about is the crime. The number one job of a government's to protect the citizens. Number two job is protect the citizen. Number three job to protect the citizens. You know? Two more cops were killed today.

You know what a lot of New York City police officers are doing? They're moving to Connecticut to different police organizations because they can't take it anymore. The wives and husbands of the police officers are doing. officers are worried for their lives. So they go into Connecticut where they definitively don't have to worry as much. They're risking their lives 24-7. And all these people being let out. You arrested 25 times? Go ahead. Did you see this shootout in Chicago? Guy murdered three people. That's video. He was let out recently. He was part of a murder. He was let out after a few years. You're part of a murder?

You let out after a few years. Oh, what do you think that person's going to do again? He's only been out a few weeks. I shot three people dead execution style. And when they were lying on the ground, shot him in the head to make sure they were dead. By the way, in plain sight outside of a bar with video. I mean, these are the things that must be addressed. And by the way, this is everything to do with you and your money and everything

because if it worsens, but what do you think markets are going to do? Markets react to all this. Markets have eyes. Markets have ears. Markets give a crap. You all must remember that. And I'm touching upon some very important subjects. Not just of my interest.

It should be everybody's interest. And I'm addressing you people that love this president. You're the ones I address. This guy's opening the borders. Just, bum, come on him. To anything, anybody, no checks, no nothing. and you know how I know there's no checks, they're being interviewed by reporters

right there on the ground. That's how we know. Fentanyl, have you read about fentanyl and how much is coming in? Fentanyl's a death sentence. And you know where it's coming in from? That is correct. Do you think the president's brought it up once?

Nope. so we worry and this is part of the whole thing of a bob that we're dealing with emanating at that wonderful place called DC hoping for better hope is diminishing hopefully tomorrow's better you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like we do it's quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better. I absolutely promise. Have a great night, everybody. I'll be on with Neil Cavuto between noon and two tomorrow and Fox Business Network. Thanks for joining. Peace out. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get

in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX. offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.