Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - End of Quarter [06.30.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: June 30, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/Monday June 30, 2025Monday is the last day of the Quarter. Adam reviews what has happened in the market this year and gives a preview of what's coming up next.

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Existence, yes. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Monday, June 30th, 2025. We have a great show for you tonight.

As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. Just as a quick note, some housekeeping before we dive into the show. As you know, this is a show about you and your money. all the fun points in between. If you don't get this show in your city, as a reminder, you can go to GaryK.com. You can rewind, fast forward, listen any time you want, on any device you want for free,

as long as you have the internet, GaryKK.com. You can also email Gary, ask about his money management services, and if you want more, you can subscribe to Gary's Convictionleaders.com report, which is his premium service where he updates members several times a day. He provides

daily webcasts where he shows charts, he annotates charts, best strongest stocks in the market, you know, everything that he sees, you just see it in real time. So that's all available on convictionleaders.com. All right, a few things that are happening here. Today, June 30th, was the last day of the first half of 2025. On Friday, I gave a little overview. If you missed it, you can go back and listen. I'll cover some of it again.

It's really important to do a few things when you look at markets, you look at investing, You look at life. I spoke about Gary's Yellow Brick Road to Success where you want to take stock, pardon the pun there, but gauge your success, gauge your progress, am I achieving my goals? How am I doing in the market? How am I doing in the market? How am I doing in other areas of life outside of the market? Remember back in January, everyone has New Year's resolutions.

Great. Am I hitting my mark? But this year's halfway over. I mean, that is huge. time flies as I get older time can go by faster and faster it feels like or at least my perception of time goes by faster that being said it's important to understand what moves the needles or excuse me what moves the needle and then what activities don't move the needle so let's dive in a little bit deeper here and we'll go through the market and all that fun stuff markets at new all time

highs you know we have the big news of the day today Canada reversed the digital tax or descended where Trump on Friday said they stopped talks with Canada, trade talks, because it's digital tax. And then over the weekend or overnight, Canada was like, yeah, you know what, we're not doing that. So let's talk. It's going to get a deal done, in my opinion. It's a matter of when, not if. Canada and the U.S. are allies. It's like these are two people that don't like each other. They're allies. And they share a huge border and, you know, so much overlap. So I'm pretty sure a deal's going to get done. All right. But political theater needs to happen, right, everyone's got to flex their muscles and put their stands and this, that, and the other thing.

So that was a big move when you woke up in the morning today. I saw that. I was like, oh, okay, futures are up. Great. Market open hire. Great. Some M&A news. You had HP buying Juniper, JNPR, take her symbol HPE and then JNPR.

That's a deal, a buyout deal. Some other stuff happened as well. But it's just more of the same. You know, we broke out last week to new all-time highs in the NASDAQ. The S&P followed. Lots of sectors are doing well. That's encouraging and sets a stage for a strong second half of the year. Notes from Gary, he hasn't seen a bare market.

Neither have I where big financials are leading the way higher. And if you look right now at Goldman Sachs, you can look at J.P. Morgan. You can look at so many other ones. So you could see, oh, wow, there's progress. These stocks are acting strong. You know, that typically doesn't happen when you're in a bare market or in a weak environment. You know, zooming out, we had a very big rally in 23 and 24, right?

We had a little bare market in 21 and 22. And then 23, 24, huge move up. Q4 of 24, which is, you know, when the election, the market started going sideways. Q1 of this year, we had a big drop, about 20% because of tariff was in, you know, predominantly in March. late February, early, most of March. And then early April, buyers showed up right near the old chart highs of 2021. Go look on a monthly chart or a long-term chart. You can see the low in April roughly corresponds with the highs back in 2021,

which is very strong. Old resistance became support. And then in April, buying showed up, buyers showed up, buying, buying, buying, and you basically had a V-shaped recovery right up the right side. And then May and June, you move sideways for several weeks. and then late June you broke out, hit new all-time highs. That's more or less what we're seeing. I mean, that's the year in review.

That's really what's happening. As we move higher now, what does it mean going forward? It sets the stage for another leg up. Or like Trump would say, a bigily leg up. Why? Because when you have a big base breakout, six, seven, eight months of basing, nine months of basing in the indices, yes, it was a deep base and get it 20% pullback in March. Not fun.

But the main threat there was the end of the global economy as we know it because tariffs would go to 200% or whatever, 150% and cripple the economy, so on and so forth. That didn't happen. Could happen. Hasn't happen yet. Either way, every single headline that hit the market, you had war in the Middle East, you had the Fed that didn't cut rates, you had the tariffs, the shmeriffs, you know, all this stuff and what's happening.

Markets at new all-time highs. That's very bullish. Again, focus on price. First, everything else second. That's my opinion, at least. That's how I, that's my philosophy. Why? Because what shows up on your statement?

Price, everything else is second. So as you look at the price action, you know, you had a huge rally, move sideways for seven, eight months. Great, breaks out of that base. That's bullish for now. If things change, you get heavy distribution, heavy selling,

heavy, enter any negative headline you want, but the market starts selling off heavy like we saw in March, I'll change my stance. Absent of that huge sell-off, I've got to acknowledge the forest. We're in a bull market.

I'll say it again. We're in a bull market. A hundred years ago, there was a great trading book called Reminiscence of a Stock Operator. I recommend people read it. I'm not affiliated with it, but it's a great book.

And in it, It tells you a story of a great speculator. Jesse Livermore's story. And in it, the guy goes into a brokerage firm. He's like, why is this going up? Why is this happening? So on and so forth. He's like, we're in a bull market, old turkey.

That's a quote from the book. And it became, you know, it's a saying now in the market. We're in a bull market. Which means what? The path of least resistance is higher for now. Now, that could change. But until it does, we've got to make the trend their friend.

Warren Buffett has a great saying. So every year he's got his annual letter, shareholder letter that he writes. I tend to read those. I like them. I learn from him. He's the most successful investor of our generation. Great. Success leaves clues.

Great. I want to know what this guy thinks. Agree, disagree on everything. Of course, people disagree. Agree. It's not the be all end all. But one of the smartest guys in the room by far. Great.

Remarkable track. record for decades. Great. Let me hear what the guy says. So I read him. And in it, he's got a great line, which calls the Great American Tailwind. Headwind is when you're flying and slows you down. Tailwind helps speed you up. And he attributes his success to that. The great American, well, he calls it the American Tailwind. I call it the Great American Tailwind. And he says the American tailwind is the primary reason for my success over the last, I don't know, 60 years. Not six weeks or six months or six years, six zero, 60 years. Decades and decades of success.

Because he's investing in America. He's investing in American companies. He's riding that great or that American talent. You know, I call it the great American talent where the economy continues to grow. Therefore, earnings, profits continue to grow, which therefore means a stock market over time continues to grow. Granted, we have bare markets. Granted, we have nasty pullbacks and ugly pullbacks. what happened in March. Granted, we get lots of drama in the market. But that's okay,

as long as you can get out of the way when things are going against you and hopefully get invested when things are going the right way when they're going up. I mean, really, that's simple. Simple but not easy. Lots of things in life. Simple, but not easy. But understanding the the broader big trend, the bigly trend is important. Why? Because we want to align ourselves with that. You know, one of the people ask me all the time, oh, yeah, what's the best piece of advice you've learned about the markets? Over time, stocks go up. At least they have. Whether they continue or not, hey, anything's possible. Even Buffett said, hey, we can possibly hurt that tailwind or end the tailwind if we go crazy or do bad things or whatever the case is. But for now,

that a tailwind is alive and well. Simple. So aligning myself with the market, staying in harmony with the market is super important. Harmony is a word. I like harmony. I like being harmony in life.

Harmony with relationships. Harmony with the market. Harmony with the market. Just a little play on the word harmony. And doing that is a superpower because it requires me to be humble. and it requires me to be objective and it requires me to be nimble and flexible.

I was on a call this morning with the big investor and he had to reschedule last week. I said, no problem. I said, my middle name is flexible. And he goes, he started laughing. He literally had a bah-ha-ha moment where he laughed out loud. I go, yeah, I get it. Things change.

So, putting things together, we're in a bull market. Up next, I've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investor. Thank you, Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Management. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt.

But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength.

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Sponsored by GSK. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promise is to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan. In for Gary Kay, who's out today? In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen any time you want on any device you want for free, all available on GaryK.com. All right, spoke about the market,

gave us looking at the forest, not just the trees or the leaves in the trees. And what I mean by that is the forest is when you zoom out. Look at the monthly charts, look at the weekly charts, long-term, multi-year trends. Am I aligned? Am I in harmony with the market? The daily charts are the trees. What's happening every day?

That makes up the forest. And then the intraday charts are the leaves and the trees. Most people are looking at every tick or they have what I call tickocytis. What does that mean? have bronchitis or any other kind ofitis, typically it's not a good thing. Tickacitis when you stare at every tick, it's not a good thing in my opinion because it causes most people to make emotional, not rational decisions, especially with their money. And those emotional decisions are really, really treacherous. They can be, you know, most cases, they're not a good

thing. They hurt performance most of the time. Just like if you're highly emotional in a relationship with your significant other. Most of the time when you're highly emotional, you're not going to bring out the best version of yourself. Just generally speaking. So again, calm, cool, collected, usually wins a race. So staring at the leaves, every time the market goes up, the market goes down, this, that, you don't think.

You can do it. I'm personally, you got to know your strengths and your weaknesses and try to find your blind spots. For me, it's not my expertise. I know it. good at looking at the leaves and trees, the intraday charts, every tick and every five minutes it goes up or goes down, trying to trade it. It's just, to me, that's not my expertise. My expertise, the weekly charts, monthly charts, finding the forest, looking at those big

trends and the capturing. Another point, we are extended. The market is extended. It's due to pull back. We don't normally just go straight up. It happens sometimes, but it's not quote unquote normal. To just go straight up forever. You get pullbacks. We're now at the point. We're extended. We had a big rally over the last several days. We can change, if not a few weeks. Great. Let's pull back a little bit. Watch the 21 day moving average. Watch the 200 day, the 50 day. You know, I'm expecting a pullback. Just like after every green light, there's a red light. Yellow and then red, right? Yellow light pullback correction, you know, red light pullback correction, bear market, whatever you want to call it. But after every red light, what happens? You get a green light. And then the cycle continues.

Every stop sign, every traffic light anywhere in the world. Red light, after red is green. After green, yellow, and then red. Simple. After every move up in the market, green light, it pauses and pulls back. Always does. So we'll see. All I'm just saying short term, we're extended. I want to bring that to your attention because it's important. Look at the forest, sure, but I also want to pay attention to levels of extension. I want to make sure I'm not chasing and I'm buying late. Over the weekend, well, on Friday, I spent time speaking with you sharing the idea of post-analysis, right? Where you take time and you look at your successes, look at your wins and look at your losses over the last six months, 2025.

I can go back 24 if you want, but look at all the traits. that's what I do separate them winners and losers two folders right w's and else okay look for patterns look for certain unconscious habits

people are creatures of habits last I checked I'm a person I'm a creature of habit oh it's not going to happen to me Adam I used to think that all the time right sure of course not ask 100 newlyweds the night of their weddings

raise your hand if you can get you get divorced No one's going to raise their hand. What happens? We know statistically most of them, or at least half of them, are getting divorced, but they won't see it in themselves. That's called a personal blind spot bias. And all we have to do is recognize that and then find guardrails like Ray Dalio talks about to protect ourselves from our blind spots or from our weaknesses. Am I chasing, buying late? Why am I missing big stocks? Am I not doing the work in advance? How do I get ahead? So on and so forth. All of that is super important. Because once you have that on your own behavior, you can stack more Ws. You can do more things that are aligned with helping you bring out your superhero. In my book, I got a book called psychological analysis. The idea there is help people make rational, not emotional decisions. My whole thesis is that fundamental and technical analysis is not enough to beat the market, something's missing, and that's where the psychology comes in. I'm not a psychologist. This is not a psychological

book where you're going to sit there and read about, you know, a theory and that. I'm just a practical guy. I just want to know what works and what doesn't. There's two cartoons in the book. It's the only investing book that I know that has cartoons. And in it, there's one cartoon, which is a superhero, the best version of ourselves. And the other one, that's a smart money superhero. The other one is what I call the dumb money beast, where it's like a Tasmanian devil, runs around, makes emotional decision, constantly chasing the tail. If you remember that cartoon, the Tasmanian devil, would run around in circles and almost create the glittal mini tornado anywhere he goes and super destructive. That's how I feel, at least, about my own dumb money beast that's inside. I mean,

nickname there is Schmelfth. I learned that one came out of nowhere. It was inspiration from above, if you will. My daughter was, you know, two, three years old years ago, and she didn't want to brush her teeth. We stayed up late watching Beauty and the Beast. My wife was with her upstairs, trying to brush. Not like you hear crying. She's, you know, two, three year old having a fit. It happens. It's another one of those, like radio talk about. These things happen. Okay. So I come upstairs and get really silly. And I stand up and I make this stomping sound like I'm stomping on an ant and I say, Schmelf, like really exaggerated.

And she looks up and she's super tired and she sees her dad being all silly and jumping up and down and stepping on Schmelf, whatever Schmelf is. We don't know. I didn't know at the time. It just came out. And boom, she started, I mean, instantly her state changed from hysterical crying to hysterical laughing. A minute later, 30 seconds, two minutes later, whatever it was.

She's calm. She's rational. now that fit past and she switched from a negative to a positive and boom she brushed her teeth and everybody was happy she went to sleep big hug ha ha ha ha ha everyone's boom boom boom boom boom change your state adults can do the same thing ever since then we've had the nickname of schmelfth in the house and by the way in work oh you know daddy's smelphing today adam's upset or adam's off a little bit all right i had a moment i'm my wife can bring it to my attention my kids can bring it to my attention in a way that's not, hey, you're a bad guy, you're just off. Okay, we all have good and bad

moments. It happens. I'm human. Right. So we just say, oh, whoever it is smelphing today. Mommy's smelping. My daughter's smelping. My son's smelping, whatever. The kids are smelph. Whoever. So, oh, it's not you. It's schmelf. This way, you're not attacking that person. And they're just gently bringing it to their attention. Okay, you might be off. It happens in trading all the time. You ever find yourself revenge trading, almost black, black, out trading where you put on all these trades like a ninja fire boom boom boom boom and you even know what happened you kind of like what just happened smelph it's raising the awareness upgrading the user so we upgrade our cell phones upgrade the user that was very very helpful with me

and with others hope it helps you so as you put all this together we want to be able to stack ws learn find those blind spots find those weaknesses turn them into strengths up next we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investor's edge. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't.

So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat, or spend hours. in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me.

Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family, is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhanan in for Gary Kaye, who's out today.

All right. So we spoke a lot so far about the market. Spoke a lot about what's happening. Gave you the farthest. I'll help you put things in perspective. We want to focus on our strengths and our weaknesses and our blind spots. We want to find them. and we want to really be able to say, okay, is this the quote unquote right thing?

How do we bring out our superhero? How do we avoid Schmelf or the quote unquote dumb money beast inside of us? You know, how do we make smarter decisions? How do we make more rational decisions? How do we make, you know, bring out the best version of ourselves? So in the book, that psychological analysis book I was telling you about, it was number one on Amazon every day for three months. I'm very happy.

Thank you, everybody, for leaving a nice review on Amazon. And again, the idea there is give you a framework, give your structure. You ever do something and hit a wall? Of course, we all have called these mental walls. What is that? Well, first let's talk about cognitive biases, right? A mental wall is something that you do. You kind of get stuck and you just can't break through it.

All right. Pause for a second. Let's pause. Let's pull back a little, you know, peel that onion back a little bit. What are cognitive biases? If you have a mind, you have biases. We all have biases. Personal blind spot bias.

like I mentioned earlier, that's one of the biases that impacts our decisions. Anchoring is another one. You can Google cognitive biases and Google cognitive biases or use AI for investing. And you'll see lots of them. You can go into it. There's hundreds of them. I took the most relevant ones and put them in the book and set the stage, okay, I now know if I have a mind, I have biases. Not that I'm bad.

Notice the word judgment. There's no judgment here. It's just a fact. It's just like if it's sunny outside. or if it's raining. Raining. Let's talk about rain for a second, happiness, right? What's good and bad?

It's all a matter of perspective. Rain is not good or bad. Depends on your expectations. That's the perspective. If you're saved up all this money, going this crazy vacation, and you're at the beach, and you're only there for a few days,

and it rains every single day, that's a bad thing because it's not what you expected. On the other hand, if there's a farmer and there's a drought and it hasn't rained at all and all of a sudden you get a lot of rain, that's a good thing. But rain hasn't changed. That external event did not change. This is really the definition of happiness, to my understanding, at least.

The events that occur are neutral. Our, for the most part, obviously some things are bad, but for the most part they're neutral. How they relate to our expectations, and we control those expectations, is what matters and determines if the event is good or bad. Stock went up. It rained. Stock went down. It sun's out.

These are just things that happen. So the mental walls happen all of us. Cognitive biases happen to all of us. Most people are not aware of them. They're not conscious of them. And they just go through and they go through and they go through and they go through. That's it. Some people help you with you with me this far.

You've got that edge. You want to go. You listen to Gary every day. There's an investor's edge. I can talk to you about this. right? You want more. You want to get better. Dig a little deeper. Okay, I have a mind. I have biases. Check. I have a mind. I'm going to have mental walls that show up. It's inevitable. And guess what? It's okay. Once you realize it's okay, my expectations now shifted. It's no longer a quote unquote bad thing. It's a good thing. How do we attack those walls? Let's address them. Let's be aware of them first. And then second, let's create structure. That's the magic word. If you can write it down, great. If you're driving, write it down later. Structure. To give you structure to accomplish your goals. Not just in the

market, but in life. Think about it. There's two people trying to accomplish a task. I want to be a great basketball player. I want to work out. This is the best one because people can relate to this. I want to get a six-pack. All right, Adam, how many setups you do today? Zero. How many do the last six month of the year? Zero. Do you really want a six-pack? How many cupcakes do you eat this year? Cookies or chocolate or whatever, right? Sweets. A lot. How many set-ups? Zero. Ask yourself, what do you really want? And then look at your actions. The way adults communicate, yeah, they use words. But actions are more powerful. Actions are what matters. If I want to get that six-pack or get that result, I need to have to do the setups. They can't pay someone to do the setups for

me, I have to do the sit-ups myself. So who's more likely to accomplish their goal? Somebody with structure, I'm going to work out Monday, Wednesday, Friday, I'm going to do sit-ups this day, and then chest and biceps and have a whole routine and nutrition and watch my food and so on and so forth, or someone's going to wing it. No structure. Same thing in markets. Obviously, the one with structure is going to be more likely to accomplish their goals. Great. And if they could have a plan, maybe the plan doesn't work. They can adjust. But structure is a superpower. Same with markets. I have a coaching service.

It's on smartmoney circle.com. And I talk to people, help them do all this work. And I go, you know, every single investor I speak to, first question, you think you can beat the market, just like the newlywed. Yes, I can beat the market. Okay. But we know most people don't beat the market. It's okay, I'm better.

Okay, great. What are you doing? You're here for a reason. You want to get better, right? Yes. Okay. What's your structure? I don't do it.

I just wing it. How do you find stocks to buy you? buy. I don't know. I watch TV or watch the news incessantly all day every day. All right. Is that giving me the results you want? No. What are you doing tomorrow? Watch the news again. What? There's nothing wrong with the news, by the way. Nothing at all. In fact, it's good if you use it right, right? That's structure. The other person who doesn't have structure, they keep doing the same thing on autopilot all day every day. They want different results. We know what I signed how you define insanity, right? Doing the same thing, expect different results.

Getting that structure is a superpower because it gives you a method, a methodology that you can use. And if it's not giving you the results you want, that's fine. You can adjust it. But at least you have structure. Step one. Hey, I'm human. I have cognitive biases. I have mental walls.

I want to improve. I have that drive inside of me to get better and that hunger to improve. That is priceless. Price, when I hire people, when I'm looking for people to work with me or whatever where's that hunger? Where's that drive? I can't pay someone to have that drive. Most people don't, and that's fine. But that hunger, when you find it, it's magic. So when you're looking at yourself, objectively, understand, we have all these. You have a mind, you have biases. You have mental walls. Great. I have a mental wall. I don't want to do the setup, but I want the six-pack. Okay, now I've got

cognitive dissonance. Another fancy word, which basically means I'm conflicted. I don't know what. I want. On one side, I want the six-pack, on the other side, I don't want to do the work for the six-back. Okay, well, what do you want more? Well, I really want maybe a flatter stomach, forget the six-pack. Okay. Here's a great line I just heard recently. I shared it with my daughter. If you can't do something, that just means step one is too big.

Make it smaller. So I write. Okay, great. If I can't write a whole essay or a whole book or whole sentence or paragraph, whatever, just start with a paragraph. You can't do a paragraph, do a sentence. You can't do a sentence? Write a word.

Can't do 200 setups or a thousand setups? That's fine. Do one. Do 10. Just build that habit. But Adam, what's 10 set up? It's going to do nothing? Yeah, it will.

It's going to give you that structure. Once you realize subconsciously you can do or unconsciously you can do those 10 situps, boom, you get momentum. Then you can do 20. Then you can do 30. Just start. And if you can't start and there's a big task you have in front of you, just shrink it. You don't have to write the whole book in day one.

It took me five years to write my book. I went through five manuscripts. I threw them all out. weren't good enough. Bye-bye. That's okay. Try again. Try again. Then finally I got it. Then the book was number one. So again, it wasn't easy. Simple concept. I read a book. Right. Okay. But powerful because it worked. And I kept on it. It was a priority. I did the work. Did the work. Did the work. Did the work. Finally, thankfully, humble, got the results. Great. I can do better. Right. Be objective. So what are those walls? What is one wall that's

bothering you. Write it down. What is one goal you want to accomplish? Hey, January said I wanted to get a six-pack or I want to lose 10 pounds. It's now July, tomorrow's July 1st, right? Or the end of June today. Did I accomplish that goal? No. But what actions did I take or not take to get there? Most likely, the actions are not enough. I don't know anyone that did more actions that were necessary than accomplish that goal, unless that the goal is unfeasible or unrealistic. You either adjust the actions or you adjust the goal. It's okay. I'm not going to get a six-pack.

That's fine. Not every single year for the last 30 years or 40 years. I'm going to six-pack, I'm not doing the actions. It doesn't make any sense. Adjust the goal? Sure. I'll lose five pounds in 30 days or in 90 days or in 60 days or in six months, whatever. Okay.

I'll revisit the end of the quarter, Q3, the end of September. Let's see where we are. Did I hit it? Is that it really? Realistic goal. Getting a six-pack for me by September, it's not realistic. But losing five pounds is, so adjust the actions or adjust the goal. It's a great way of beating those mental walls that come up. All right. Same thing with market. Same thing with almost any aspect of life, by the way. It's just the intellectual honesty is what's critical. So easy to make things up. Tell us ourselves different stories. We want that truth, right? We want that intellectual honesty. Up next, we've got more to cover. I can't believe how fast time flies. I was just saying time flies. I'm at on the sartan. This is the one and only investor's edge. It always happens

right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world,

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with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Monday, June 30th, last day of the month, last day of the quarter, last day of the first half of 2025. It's over. It's amazing how fast time flies. So we cover a lot.

I try to make these talks. I'm not on often when I am on. I try to give you evergreen content that you can use, bookmark these, listen to it again and again, or write take notes or write them down or just store them in your mind's eye about tactics and tools and lessons and strategies that you can use to help you get an edge, right? So we spoke a mental wall,

spoke about cognitive biases, spoke about look at the forest, not the trees, spoke about the importance of being objective, spoke about the importance of being intellectually honest with ourselves. And the other thing I want to share with as we go into the final few minutes today is the news. How do you use news? What's happening, right? Looking forward.

So the best way that I can share, again, Gary's mentioned this many times, it's not the news that matters. It's the reaction to the news. oh, we have XYZ happen. Okay, great. How does the market react? All things being equal,

a bullish reaction to a, is positive. A bearish reaction to the news is negative. It's bearish. Depends if you're long or short, but for the most part,

a bullish reaction is bullish and a bearish reaction is bearish. Simple. The market's going up and down. Same thing as rain. It's a, it's based on your expectations. If you're long,

You want stocks to go up. If you're short, you want them to go down. So it all depends on the expectations, right? We can adjust those expectations. And understanding even in a long and in a bull market, you get pullbacks. You get corrections. They happen. It's not fun, but they happen.

Usually, good news is usually they're over, just like this pullback we had or this correction we had in March or this baby bear market, whatever you want to call it. And boom, off to new highs again. That's the American tailwind. Right? So news, what's happening? First off, short and holiday week this week, markets closed early on Thursday. You've got July 4th on Friday.

You've got jobs report coming out, number one. Number two, after that, we've got inflation. CPI comes out, which I believe will be relatively low because oil prices came way back down after that Middle East short term spike up for a few days. And then we have earnings. earnings earnings earnings remember the beginning of every quarter we get earnings season happens four times a year

okay companies have to report their earnings every quarter as we go into earning season over the next few weeks it's not going to happen next week but over the next few weeks we really get to the thick of earning season when the big banks report and then tech stocks report and so on and so forth again focus the same thing with the news it's the same thing with earnings

the news is important sure but it's the reaction to the news folks that really moves the needle. And that's what really, really matters. Why? Because that reaction is the price. What shows up in our statement? Price. What matters? Price. Adam, this company reported earnings of growth of 100%, but the stock's down. What shows up on the statement? Price. Adam, this company lost X amount of dollars in their earnings and its revenue, whatever, but the price went up. okay it's got my attention so during earning season which is still a few weeks out and again any news that hits the tape anything EU trade deal came out Canada trade deal whatever the news is war in the

Middle East all of this tariffs shmeriffs the reaction to the news folks is what matters and that is a critical insight the market's a forward-looking mechanism the news by definition earnings news and most economic news tells us what happened in the past. Markets look forward. They discount the future. It's like driving the car when you leave your driveway. You look in the rearview mirror. Okay, great. You're on the street. You got to stop looking the river mirror. You want to look forward. You're going to crash. Can't be on the highway driving, only looking at the river mirror. So it's the same thing. The review mirror is important. Economic data earnings are important, but the market's flipping forward. And that data by definition,

is old. Once the economic data comes out or the news comes out, old. Instantly, it's no longer as important because the market's looking forward. And that freed me up a lot once I understood that insight. Super, super empowering. Now I'm not fighting with the market or offside with the market or out of whack with the market. Now I'm in harmony with the market, or at least I try to be. And I'm wrong, just like everybody else. When I'm wrong, I want to be wrong small and fast. And when right? Just sit. Sit. There's no reason to force it. No reason. Because then that's the emotion's coming in. So as we go into a heavy news period over the next several weeks, take your time. Ask yourself with any news. What happened? Great. That's important. Understand

the news, sure. But really, how is the market reacting to that news? Trump got upset with Canada on Friday. Monday, that digital tax is gone. Okay, stocks are up. Great. That doesn't mean the news didn't matter on Friday. It did. But what matters more is the reaction. The market didn't have a huge selloff.

We were down 10,000 points, I'm exaggerating. Thousands of points, and it was a huge crash on Friday. No. It was a blip on the radar. It was a bullish reaction to bearish news. And then today, on Monday, all of a sudden, boom. Take it back in Canada says no more digital tax and EU comes out. and other news, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

It's the reaction to the news. But as you move forward, the market keeps going up here. We're grinding higher, excuse me. Inevitably, you're going to get to a point where it's extended, which we are getting into now, and it pulls back. Even on quote-unquote bullish news.

It's just the way the market works. Like a rubber band, you pull it back, you let go, snaps right back. And then you can pull it out again. And the definition of an uptrend is higher highs and higher lows. Very simple. So, again,

I want to simplify things as much as I physically can, as much as humanly possible for you to help you really focus on the important things that move the needle for you and help you make better decisions on and off, you know, in the market, outside the market, anywhere in life. That's really one of my passions. We upgrade our cell phones, I mentioned earlier. I want to upgrade the user. I love doing that. And it's just by studying human nature success in these clues like Tony Robbins talks about and Jim Rohn and all these famous people. Why? Because it does.

when you want to be successful in something, you want to find the most successful people in that arena. Number one. Number two, you want to find what investors have done that works. Be rational, not emotional. And safety in any endeavor. All right, I believe that's all the time I have for today. As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. This is the one and only Investor's Edge.

This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Hi, this is Danielle Robey, the host of Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club, a podcast by Hello Sunshine and IHeart Podcasts. I'm partnering with Simple Mills, and I've just found my new go-to reading snack, Simple Mills' almond flour crackers. Think of this as a quick book-style review because these crackers deserve it.

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