Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Even more deterioration [05.29.2024]

Episode Date: May 29, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is, I think it's a Wednesday. I think it's May 29th. I think it is 2024. Hope you are having a good day. Well, the market's not really. We hope you've been listening on that. We'll get to that in a minute. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you probably should. We're pretty cool on there. And if you want to email me, all you got to do is be nice, because we're nice back. Regardless, whether somebody calls me a Nazi or not, we're actually nice back. Thank you for the kind words we say. We are serious talk, though, everything that affects you. And as we've said to you time and time again, we never talked about government.

We never talked about politicians. We talked about markets. And then starting with Bush, we noticed, you know, the compassionate conservative Bush, that all of a sudden big deficits were okay. Don't worry about them. They're for the greater good, which led us down the road to the next and the next and the next and the next that have taken us to this Marxist socialist control freak

that has turned $100 billion into a footnote on the debt, the deficits, the scope, the reach, the size and spending of this government. But we'll do that later. There are moments in time where we don't have a ton to say on the markets. They're going about their merry way. And then there are moments in time where we are on here doing a radio show. And we're not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover.

But we are telling you what's happening. and in recent weeks, we've done nothing more than tell you that the average stock was topping out, that sector by sector was topping out, stock by stock was topping out, and as we always say, unknown price and time, meaning when we see things topping out, we don't know if it's going to be short term yet. We don't know if it's going to be a little more than short term. We don't know if it turns into a big bear market. But we do know when the process of topping out is on and how you have to be cautious. And what have we done in recent weeks?

The oils. What did we tell you? Avoid. And oils were not in a void. for a while. What we tell you about? Housing. Avoid. Transports. Avoid. A bunch of economically sensitive areas. Avoid. And all that was happening while we are scanning, as we tell you on this show and gave you the example, imagine if, assume we know what an up trend and a downtrend is. Assume we know this.

And 100 stocks, that's all there are in the market, just 100. And they're all in a nice uptrend. And then they all flatten out. Well, the uptrend stops may mean nothing, may be just the pause that refreshes, but then it starts heading down. May not be a big deal. Why? You can pull back.

But then the next rally, does not get you back to the highs. And then you drop again, breaking those recent lows. And then all of a sudden, the stair steps start going down. So what is turned from an up trend into a downtrend? Well, if we're talking all the stocks, that means the market's in a downtrend. Now, you know it's not that simple because we follow 200 sectors and subsectors, thousands of stocks, countries, commodities, you name it.

all we can tell you is more deterioration today. And all we can tell you, this did not come about today. All we can tell you, it's been a process of deterioration over weeks leading to the last week or two. And now again today, more and more and more to the downside and less and less to the upside. and less and less and less to the upside. What's held up best is big. As usual, what gets hit the most is not so big. And a lot of things now are breaking.

We told you about a bunch of Dow stocks, how the Dow is weaker than the S&P, and that continued today. The transports. And now you can add other areas. Oh, we also mentioned commodity. A bunch of those had topped. So just letting you know, we worsen today.

Now, I already get questions when the market gets into some trouble. And they're quite valid questions, but I do not have the answers because we don't know. Just remember back in 21 when we started to see a lot of things topping. What we said to you back then was, just letting you know this one top, that one, top, this one top, and we've got to be careful and watch these things closely. And we also talked about at the time, guess what the other thing that was going on in 21? Well, interest rates were going up as the yachts at the Federal Reserve. Inflation is transitory.

Now, guess what's happening in the last two weeks? Yields are ticking up and markedly. guess what else is happening well we have said to you we think the market has a voice we think the market has ears and as i've said to you and i've been saying on tv for the last 10 days we can pretty much promise you almost first the market is definitely telegraphing a slowdown in economic growth but we also know by precedent if we go into a recession where growth is dropping, unemployment's picking up, I can promise you the market's going to be down another 5, 10% before it's even reported, if not more.

So just letting you know it worsened today, and we'll see where it takes us. We are fortunately in the mega-cap tech, which a few of them were up today. amazingly so tomorrow don't know and that's the norm typically as things worsened

money will flow into the things that are working best until they finally get them we'll see don't know we'll take it day by day but again the numbers at the close Dow down another 411.

I've got 22 Dow stocks out of the 30 that look like crap of different crappy levels. 22 of the 30. The S&P was down 39. The NASDAQ was down 99 and I got to tell you, the NASDAQ was trying all day. In fact, at around 338, it's down like 50 points, nothing. Then they opened up the spigot a little bit at the end of the day. The NASDAQ 100, down 132, and those transports, down another 210. The transports trading below the longer term 200-day moving average.

But don't worry, all they do is transport people and goods. Oh, worry. Why? economy. What's the market saying? We'll find out. Is it just maybe a correction and no big deal? Maybe. But all the things that I have been saying with my own eyes tells me we think things are a little bit spent up here. We think the economy is slowing down. We think the job market is not as good. We know the housing market has got some problems. Up next, we'll expound. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Colbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show

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If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being. 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

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There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash Hub Delivery. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sung, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So getting to the housing market, I can only go by what I see. And by the way, you can see the same things I see.

you have to do is go on Zillow, put in any city, up come the houses, up come the maps. You can put in any number like, oh, if you want to look at houses above a million, you put in a million, 500,000, put in 500,000, you can do minimum maximum. And all we can tell you is inventory is really picking up across many cities and prices from Fantasyland is now coming down. markedly. It's definitively heading towards a buyer's market as the J. Powell, just another distortion from this control freak unwinds. And that's the distortion of, hey, we're going to take rates to zero. We're going to just print up to $9 trillion out of thin air and buy up the whole freaking bond market

and screwing you, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob on their savings. But you're going to be able to get mortgages at 3%. Because look at me, I'm Jay Powell. Here I come to save the day. Printed money on the way. And of course, what ended up happening was everybody refinanced the 3%. All the new homes was at 3%. All the buying at homes at 3%.

Who to hell now wants to sell a home at 3% mortgage? Mortgage and buy a house with a 7% mortgage. But it's now the distortion always. unwinds and we're starting to see it and I got to tell you in some cities the high end I'm seeing fantasy land people trying to sell a home for five million bucks that was two and a half million three years ago and of course there's nobody even biting and of course the next thing you see is lowering a 500,000 and then another five anyway fantasy land's over I don't know how far it goes, how long it lasts.

I really don't. But the wealth effect potentially can be in reverse now because people attach their wealth to their homes very often. So we'll be watching. Let us not forget also major, major increase in credit card usage while a drop in savings rates. So you have this little thing going on that are going to be watching closely. As of now, all we have is a little correction in the market with some big warts as there are some areas that are just ick. And when I say ick, I mean, you have 15 to 20 percent drops in 10, 12 weeks. Oh, really?

There's also 30 and 40 percent drops. And there's also more than that. and it's not just in high flyers, it's in rails and truckers and airlines and oils and oils and all kinds of stuff. Advanced declines today, what do we mean by worsening? On the New York, 654 stocks up, 3,388 stocks were down. on the NASDAQ, 1,048 up 3,026 down.

At the finish of today, the Dow, finished below, even farther below the 50-day moving average today. And as I stated, man, there's a lot of Dow stocks that look like crap. And by the way, one plus one does equal to, you know what one of the worst acting ones is? McDonald's. What have they had to start doing? offer meals for lower prices.

But the problem with that is, if you're selling something for a lower price now, but your cost is the same to make and produce and deliver that product, your profits are going down. If your profits are going down, your stock is going down, so McDonald's stock is getting trashed.

Owen, by the way, that's down 16% from the high. 16%. It may sound like nothing, but it's still 16%. So there's a bunch of that going on. You know another name? Chipotle. Stock has been strong as heck. But was down $83 today.

And I've done a little homework. Small sampling. I went to three Chipotle's in the last day and I bought three chicken bowls because you don't want to walk in and ask questions and not buy something. All three told me average check is down

and business is starting to head down. And what do they say the reason was? Raising of prices. people are becoming price conscience in a much bigger way as prices have gone up. Now, that is one hell of a small sampling, but we'll see. And by the way, the areas where I went to are not, how do I put this? I mean, decent, not wealthy, this wasn't Beverly Hills, but, you know, of means, we'll be watching that. closely. A little bit of homework that I did. I gave away two of the chicken bowls and I had one of them.

And this weekend, we'll be visiting some things also. Just checking things out. Because when the market's doing this and maybe telegraphing something, we're getting out on the road and trying to get a feel for it. Because I can promise you, if the economy loses the control, consumer in a meaningful fashion, a debt-laden economy is worrisome. And when you have a bozo, and I really should not put down bozo, but when you have a bozo running the country into the ground and the pliant media covering his arse by not calling him on it with his massive debt and deficits, as I have stated, we better hope the bond market doesn't wake up one day and says, holy crap. And then we see the 10-year yield, not at 4.7 or 6 wherever the hell it finished today,

but it's 7. And then your mortgages are at 10%. Try buying a house then. Close at 4.624 today. This bozo is taunting you, your job. your industry, the markets, the economy, running two to three trillion dollar deficits. And a lot of it is government grants for climate and giveaways to relieve student loans to buy their votes. Bozo, up next. We'll keep going with this. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart. talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake M. Bata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM

Because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff. Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right?

My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Amazon Hub Delivery wants to partner with your business. Help your business. Help your neighbors.

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Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible. items from Celsius, body armor, or aida, silk, Capri-Sung, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here.

He's a senator out of boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. And may I state for the record if the economy really slumps in the months ahead. And by the way, the reason why they're doing massive deficits spending

is for the economy going into the election. It's purely for the election. That's why I can't stand this person, nauseating human being. Anyway, you cut it. Then again. And by the way, we'd say all this to their face. Nothing we say here, which has me segueing. I don't know if you mind.

I hope you don't mind. But I have to segue. Bill Walton passed away. Basketball player. when you have a chance, and I did, and I really had no idea, you know when you can tell somebody is revered by how many people go on social media and just praise the living heck out of that person. And I've got to tell you, I am not sure I have seen so many with so much praise for this person. when you have a chance and you can go on Twitter, X, just type in Bill Walton and just start looking at and you'll see tons of videos people put out of him and the stories of him.

Because you may not know this. I kind of live by trying to make everybody feel important. You may not know this because the way I speak about politics. I'm full of praise and I hate myself for having to go after these politicians like I do. And may I state for the record, I go after them pretty viciously. I hate that. Those that know me live by the Bill Walton mantra that is making people feel important. praising them, complimenting them.

I told my sons, if you ever become a manager of a business, praise profusely out loud, critique silently in an office. But unfortunately, I cannot praise anybody run in this country because of facts and numbers. You don't even need opinions. it is turned into one big, gigantic slush fund that have made $100 million into a nothing. They've turned $100 billion into a footnote. They're out there talking about $160 billion of relief for student loans that we relieve with our tax dollars like it's nothing.

and that's because when you run two to three trillion dollar deficits a year and you raise federal spending 70% in just five years, they don't give a flying crap. So I'm just letting you know, I'm just bringing this up because I take absolutely no joy. Those that know me know, I love complimenting. I love praising. and so many you're not even used to it. I had my family out this Greek restaurant in New York City. It's like they have like three restaurants. It's like a really good high-end Greek restaurant.

And I called the manager over. And I can tell the woman manager was like, she wasn't sure she wanted to come over. She thought I was going to rip something. And I profusely complimented everything. thing from service the food to the waiters and waitress the whole works and she was like who and i said what you thought i was going to complain and i heard exact words where you don't know the half of it so i just want to let you know as i was sitting there watching these videos of bill won't and i

kept thinking about myself it's not me that i go after these politicians but somebody's got and I wish I can affect some change, but it's going to take more than one person. And if you think Trump's going to change it for the good, good luck. If he wins, I hope he does. I'll be rooting for him. Big time, I'll be rooting for him. But we already know what we're getting from the dude, the bozo in D.C. I would love to praise him.

and I did initially in his reaction to what Hamas did, but now he's just buying votes again. Because if he loses Michigan, which is very Muslims, a lot of them, Muslim vote. If he loses that, loses Michigan, very tough to win the presidency again. So he's got to cater to them

and talk out of both sides of his mouth. Anyway, I just want to bring that up. Go check out this guy, Bill Woll. By the way, he's seen the Grateful Dead. He says 854 times. The most I've seen of anybody is 18. And I thought that was a lot. 854 times he has seen the Grateful Dead. I wish I had met him. I'm watching videos of him that I never did before. And man, I would have loved hanging with this guy. And it looks like a lot of people did. Go check. it out and I mean that it will make an impression on you it has me almost thinking maybe

I'll stop ripping the politicians no I'm gonna keep it up maybe I can affect some change all we own right now is some mega cap tech some ETFs and we're pretty much away we're away from it's not a slaughter yet Indices are much better, much better than the average stock because of the big capness. But when I do our webcasts and say, avoid, avoid, avoid, then I end up in saying, do you know why we were able to avoid this because of the roadmap and reading of bull and bear markets? Well, that's what you got going right now. and in the aftermarket, something I just noticed,

and this possibly of imports, Salesforce.com, a very important software stock. I don't see the story yet, and I will. It's down 17% in the aftermarket. $47. If my computer works 47 times 6.78, that'll be 318 Dow points. tomorrow

because of Salesforce.com and yet the Dow is down 300 in the aftermarket on one stock. Dang! That's not good news.

Wow. That's a big one. Wow. Did not expect that. Guides below. I got news for you. They guided below by a wee bit bit.

And the stock's getting crushed. Wow. Happy New Year tomorrow. Ladies and gentlemen, glad we don't own that sucker. So wish we had better news. The title of the show today is even more deterioration. My screens are pretty much beat red. And now we'll see whether Salesforce.com beats up the software names tomorrow.

because that could have a little bit of an impact. Just so you know, they do like $35 billion in revenues. Up next, we'll have something else for you. I'm Gary. This is the one on the investor's edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential, to create smarter business.

My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive.

Yeah, wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept

that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub Delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner, you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your area on a schedule that works for you. With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business. Plus, Amazon Hub Delivery makes it easy to get started.

There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash Hub Delivery. That's Amazon.com slash H-UB delivery. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sun, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin.

Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Kulp. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, I really mean that go check out a lot of this Bill Walton stuff. And, man, I love being in spot. There's a lot of inspiration in watching this guy in the videos and things they're talking about. Man, the people you would love to meet, I think he had the Big C and died, I think it was like 70 years old.

We move on. So I haven't really thrilled you too much today. We deal in reality here. We don't deal in fluff. We don't believe in the think long term. We think you should own things that are working long term. And we're just letting you know, we sidestep 21, 22 with you guys. Remember that, right?

We sidestepped it. We kept coming on the show here and saying, avoid the market. You decide. And somebody that owns a stock for the last 30 years or the Vanguard S&S and P should be ignoring us on something like that. You decide. But bear market. Throughout this rally,

there's been a ton of names that never even got going. There are voids. In the last few weeks, more and more, more and more, more and more, stocks go by the wayside. and they become a voids. And the more that do that, the more the market has headwinds.

And that's where we're at. I repeat, to what extent we absolutely do not know. We wish we did. What we do know is when something is off the playing field. and as we've explained to you and we still love the fact we're told it doesn't work. Anything trading below the 50-day moving average, it cannot ascend. It does not mean the end of the world because you can break below that level and sit around and turn back up. But if you stay below it and then start going through the stair steps,

down process, we know by seeing, not hearing, that a negative process is on of unknown time and unknown price. And then at that point, you never know. One of the great examples recently, Lululemon, stock topped at 516, broke the first line of support at 500, which was a first clue, but broke the 50-day moving average at about 470. That was your get the hell out. Or, you better review. It's 298. Now, how would you like to be able to get a stiff, loud alarm cell on something at 470, while the analysts are reiterating their buy recommendations

and still have buy recommendations on it, but you're out at 470 and it's 298, Lulu Lemon. And you do know that up at the highs it was very much talked about. Well, there's starting to be a decent amount of those names in differing areas of the market, and we're just letting you know. On the good front today, I got to tell you, God bless it.

Abercrombie and Fitch up 37 bucks, up 24% today on big earnings, good sales, and dang. I think it's the strongest stock of the last year. Abercrombie and Fitch, I think they own Hollister and a couple other things maybe. I forgot the name of the other story. Well, does Abercrombie and Fitch, Hollister, and, if I remember it, I'll tell you. Gilly Hicks. Does anybody have heard of Gilly Hicks? I think they own them too.

Good on them. And I must tell you, on another one, Dick Sporting Goods, up 16% today. I don't understand. Earnings were down three. Revenues were only up six, but they guided a little bit better. hey, whatever, the market really liked it, and the stock was up 16. Those are the reactions we're always looking at, looking for, because what we try to do is invest in greatness, companies that are doing things well, doing things right, not, well, it's gone from 100 down to 50.

They reported bad numbers. They're getting rid of this CFO, but we think it's a value here. and then it goes to 25 and you wonder why. So just letting you know how we look at things, how we see things. And when the market's crapping out, the motto, when the market's weakening, it's easier to isolate the strength. If 100 stocks are going down, but one is going up, I want to know why. And it's usually the one that has strong demand for whatever they do. Conversely, when only one stock's going, you get my point.

It's easy to isolate weakness when everything's going up. And we're getting a bunch of that now. That all said, wish I had better news. Have a great day. Have a great evening. Drive carefully. I'll be on with Varnie & Company, Fox Business Network, tomorrow at 10 a.m., check it out. And when you get home, do like we do.

Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. Check out Bill Walton on Twitter slash X. Have a good night, everybody. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner, you and your staff will, deliver packages to customers in your area on a schedule that works for you. With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business. Plus, Amazon Hub delivery makes it easy to get started. There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, body armor, ORAIDA, silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery.

Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.