Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Eventual warning shots [10.06.2025]

Episode Date: October 6, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Monday. It's October 6th. It's 2025. Hope you had a good weekend. Let's see. Did I have a good weekend? Well, yeah, I did.

I celebrated my birthday with the family up in the Northeast. Flew back to Florida. And I had a great day today. It was one of those great days. Would you like to know why? Good. Rush is going to do. Looks about 16 shows come this summer.

not going to come to Florida but they're going to do two in Toronto I'll be at those two in Madison Square Garden I'll be at those and a few other places that I am definitely going to see them

I'm so happy because as I have complained to you so many of my favorite groups are just no more the Who just finished no more I didn't go see them on this last one because I saw them About four years ago in Jacksonville had front row, and I couldn't get any better than that.

And all my faith, you know, Genesis no more. Yes is broken up. Yeah, John Anderson does a yes and Steve Howe does a yes, but it's not yes. And then there's Rush. Without Neil Pert, which, quite depressing that he passed away a while ago. But they brought in a drummer. and a good one too and we'll go to a few shows

the giant stink five turnovers didn't help me out at all and then we have the markets but first if you do not get this radio show in your city we'll post it at garyk.com we'll also post it on our X feed if you don't follow us on X you should if you'd like to email us just be nice by the way

we'll also post it on other podcasts apps and the Biz TV YouTube channel. Again, if you were not in your city, we're going to bust this sucker out like you would not believe. And what do we do here on the show to introduce ourselves? We do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry,

politics, because the interlopers never stop including this administration. They're getting their hands in everything. And they keep saying it's for the greater good. No, it's not. Free markets leave us alone. Anybody who's conservative that says

the President Trump is a conservative by getting his hands into all kinds of businesses, sorry, we disagree. That's just our take. That's all. Nothing personal. And they announce more things, this thing and that thing and this thing

and Intel and that thing and this thing. And crypto this and crypto that. And this crypto company they now own and they're making billions off of while they tout crypto. You know what we think. Anyway. But let's go the big news. AMD announces this big deal. They announce this big deal.

And amazingly, AMD. stock was up $62 right at the open today. The deal was that they're doing something with chips and open AI and 6 gigawatts and this, they really didn't give out numbers exacts, but big numbers going forward, just another announcement of big numbers having to do with AI and chips. And they opened AMD up. and this has been a lagging name, and the reason why it's been lagging the industry is the last quarter earnings were down 30%. Well, they opened it up today, around 227, closed it under 204, but still up $39.

And what did it do? It juiced. What did it juice? Those equipment makers again, the companies that do the equipment do the equipment. Why? Because all these numbers that are being announced, let me be clear, and this is where the title of this show is the eventual warning shots, the numbers that are being announced, I'm sorry, there is no way are going to come to fruition. I was looking at free cash flow of the mega companies that are announcing this spending called Capx capital expenditures

it's like all free cash flow times two is going to be spent on AI chips we're going to pay a lot of attention to this because somebody agrees with us we believe there's a chance we're not 100% sure but we have been telling you we wonder are we going to get some sort of 99 type move with things went vertical things went vertical and people were buying at any price people were buying at any price at any price people were buying and they got destroyed.

And if you recall, I told you this story during that time where we had owned Oracle and one of our clients was this very nice doctor that had retired. We sold his Oracle. He called up and he F-bombed me like there was no tomorrow because I sold his Oracle. We were up.

I think it was a little. four or fivefold. And he was mad at us. He fired us. Two years later, he had moved to Boca Raton calls me up. I go to visit him. He bought it back. He was down like 80%.

I had a triple-digit woman, fire me. Should have been a lot more. I got an apology from her in a letter. When things get out of hand. When you have crazy things going on, it's typically late stage. We're not saying it's late stage. We're saying it's typically, but late stages can last a long time.

We are seeing now a lot of dollar stocks on the move, 50 cents stocks on the move, $2 stocks on the move. We continue to see more and more no sales stuff on the move. Today they had this chat GPT confab and all they did was mention, by the way, some very meaty names, Expedia, HubSpot, Mattel. They just mentioned the names and the stock soared today to the upside. Minutes later they gave it all back. They said Mattel, well, the way the toys could be made. So we're just letting you know, we're getting some. We're getting some loony. When a company has no sales, never had sales, been public for 15 years, and has a $10 billion market cap, it's loony, but then it doubles from there. And has a $20 billion market

cap. And what does that do? It gets people in the frame of mind of nothing can go wrong. look at this, nothing can go wrong until it does. And as we've told you, by precedent, not president, but precedent, when the music stops on these themes, if nothing changes and these companies remain with no sales, 90% drops? and how many robotaxy companies and drone companies and quantum companies and nuclear companies are actually public? A ton and most have no sales. So we're letting you know, we think they can go higher.

We're not telling you what to do. We're telling you what typically happens at the end of this road. And we'll keep you informed. We're not shy. We'll keep you informed. Up next. A little more on that. News of the day, whatever else today. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including, retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing

is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5. 5-59. That's 888-422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call bomb capital management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are 3,000. thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture

X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. See Country Star Aaron Lewis and the State Liner's at Monkey Boy at Munkleshoot Casino Resort March 24th and 25th at 8 p.m. He's a multi-platinum artist whose raw lyrics and powerhouse vocals have captivated fans for decades. Now, he and his band The State Liner's are coming to Muckleshoot Casino Resort.

Get your tickets now to see Aaron Lewis at Muckleshoot Casino.com. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Let me tell you what we are going to be watching for. Want you to listen carefully. As you know, we have told you, our middle screen has about 50 to 75 oil stocks. 10 defense stocks. Two payroll stocks, ADP and paychecks, which, by the way, are in bare markets. About seven or eight auto dealers where most are in bare markets. About 10 drug companies, about 60 retail stocks where about 55 of them are in downtrends,

about 25 medical research and products where a lot of them in downtrends, four exchanges, CBOE, CME, they're in bare markets, housing stocks, which are very troublesome. Now as interest rates start to tick up again, waste management stocks, bare markets. The cruise lines, which recently just topped out, I wouldn't call them big bear markets, but topped out. The transports were just a lot of weakness. Do I even have to tell you about UPS? How about 25 commodity names? Alcoa, Cliff Natural, Freeport MacMaram.

Got all the airlines in one area, and they've topped out recently. We have gaming, casinos, they've topped out recently. The food, beverage, and tobacco, bearish phases. Insurance, a lot of them in bearish phases, but nothing bad. They typically don't get destroyed. We have about 20 restaurants, all in bearish phases. I don't think I have one bullish now. We have an area of the big banks and the regionals,

and a lot of financials, where we can tell you financials, the private equity companies getting in big trouble here. Excuse me, they're in bad shape. And then our last column is all the semis, and boy, they're hot as heck, especially the AI names. So we're able to see at all times what's going on. And very simply, when we say to you in the past, we think the market's getting in trouble, and we say it before anybody else is because we really look at the underbelly of the markets.

And if the indices are doing well and holding up, but nine out of ten stocks are going down, influence things to worry about. Well, just so you know, there is about 30 to 35 percent of the market in dire straits, and there's still plenty of technology stocks that are not gargantuan in bad shape. whether it's HubSpot or Intuit or Service Now. It's a pretty good list. Recent tops in Reddit. So we're just letting you know how we know we're getting close.

Well, there'll be a narrower list and we'll find some what we call space needles. What the heck's a space needle? well if you chart the price of stock it makes a space needle at the end Qualcomm did it in 99,000 marijuana stock Tilray did it a few years ago

so we're paying close attention while we own a bunch of things that are working just fine and we have had the big indices since I think April 25th the day after the confirmation day and just riding them up, not once if they broke the 50-day moving average, which is amazing.

And I have to tell you, I'm still finding viable names. I got to be careful about what we're looking at, but there are names right now setting up in growth land to break out of range. And if they break out on volume and stick, we're happy campers. Of course,

just because something breaks out doesn't mean it holds and then there are other areas that are defense stocks are strong right now. Defense, not defensive, defense. Very strong. As we said nuclear, but a lot of no-sale stuff in there.

You have the building construction data center types because of all this news. Strong. Bitcoin, new high at the close today. Strong. I can tell you there's a lot of smaller biotechs strong. But at the same time, I'm seeing a lot of $2 biotech strong. That's a little bit worrisome. We'll see. So, a little bit more of a mix bag as the indices are strong. Though the Dow was down 60 today, the NASDAQ was up 160 and the NASDAQ 100 was up 193 because of the news of AMD,

which caused the news of KLAC and LRCX and AMAT and ASML because they make the stuff that supposedly is going to be needed. Supposedly. And that will be the big question going forward. I can't say that any louder. because very important you recognize just because somebody announces just because somebody announces a big spend

does not mean they're going to spend it and if you learned a lesson from 99 there was a lot of that going on a hell of a lot of that there was also this vendor financing we were telling you about where a company lends a ton of money to another company to buy the first company's product. And this is not about being skeptical.

This is about simply precedent. But we're just letting you know the market as a whole right now. Fine and dandy, the big indices fine and dandy. The small caps just moved out of range. Struggling a little bit, but still above range. You had a great move today in Microsoft. We mentioned AMD. Nvidia was down a percent because competition.

AMD gets this and video wouldn't. That type of thing happened today. But Tesla was strong today. Imagine they announced card numbers from Germany. They were terrible. Tesla says, oh, we have an announcement tomorrow. And the stock went up, I think, about 5% today. You have to get in trashed on Friday early before bouncing.

Welcome to our world But the main theme Oh we're going to be having our eyes wide open Going phone kids Up next This that and the other thing Whatever else This is the one only investor's edge

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like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Hey, it's Howie Mandel, and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my Howie Do It Gaming Team take on Gilly to King and Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic,

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We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. This will be another quiet week of earnings. Next week we start to get a bunch of big financials. And then we get into crux of things. And I will tell you the last earnings, there was like a hundred stocks that gapped up big and have done nothing ever since.

because they gapped them up too much. Got a lot that going on. There are others that worked, but nothing great. Have no clue what the next reaction is going to be. We keep hearing earnings are strong. Okay, terrific. Whatever you say, and we'll take it as it comes. We deal in real time here.

We don't deal in what we think is going to happen six months from now. We talk to you about precedent, but we don't know what's going to occur. We don't. We have an idea. And we know what it looks like if it starts to happen. And we'll be ready. We will absolutely be ready.

I hate using the word stay tuned, but stay tuned. And I want to repeat one thing. By precedent, all this hot stuff, if nothing, changes. If these companies don't get monstrous sales and earnings, it'll be ugly. And all you have to do is go back to any bare market and go back to anything that had no sales, complete collapse. For that matter, companies that had plenty of sales but lose a lot of money collapsed also. Next, what I want to talk about. As you know, we can't stand anybody in Washington, D.C. Nothing personal. But they're real, all of them are just nothing more than marketing of

themselves. And as you know, it's been easy to pick them apart, left or right. And as you know, we don't have an iron in the fire, we don't have any blood in the game, we don't care. We want good policy. We want them to get the heck out of our way. You know our complaints about Biden. You know our complaints about President Trump.

While we have complimented the president profusely. But I must tell you, and I want to repeat there's too much. It's becoming too much. All this talk of what they're going to run and what they're going to handle. It doesn't matter to me whether he's a good businessman or a bad businessman. That should not be the government's place. And I don't like the give and take.

I don't like Apple saying they're going to spend this. Oh, good. We're going to take away your tariffs. I'm sorry. That should not be allowed. The tariffs should not be allowed. And for all the people, including President Trump, be careful what you wish for.

Because if a Marxist ends up in the White House, tariffs are taxes. And you know what Marxists love doing with taxes. they stick it to you in ways unimaginable. And remember, they complain about billionaires right now, not millionaires anymore because they became millionaires. But I promise you they're going to be coming after any success story, all success,

and they're going to do it through whatever. The president made up this tariff thing. What do you mean he made it up? We've had tariffs to pass. Not like this. not in the deal making oh you do this we'll take it off oh you don't do this we're going to put it on should not be happening tax policy should be house senate white house and you know i'm all right you know i'm right so we'll see how it goes we'll see how it goes we love what he's doing

in cities we don't care what these idiots that are running these cities say. In parts of Chicago, it's the Wild Wild West. It wants to do something about it. The governor says, go screw. Really? So one wants to protect your citizens

and the governor who's actually there and the mayor, no? Does that make any sense? I'm all for the president on that. Washington, D.C. crime is down markedly. Those are in cities right now that are

having problems. Would you like to have less crime? Yes. How's it going in Portland, by the way? How's it going in Portland? That beautiful place. I hear Antifa is having some fun with you guys. Shouldn't be. Do you know why they keep doing what they're doing? Because they get away with it. If they didn't think they'd get away with it, they may not do it. Just remember, most of these creeps are cowards. They're wussies. They're wimps. If they know they're going to pay a stiff punishment, they'll stop. When they know they're not, you catch my drift.

So I'm all for fighting crime. It's the number one job of any leader of any community, any county, any city, any state, any country. I leave you on that. Think about that. And by the way, what does that have to do with the economy? Everything. Go read up about the story. stores in downtown San Fran that are no longer. They've all left. A ton of them have left. They're still

there, some stores. But I know people in San Fran, stores are boarded up left and right, malls are empty. Nobody wants to go near anything. By the way, that's Pelosi's district, and not one journalist asked Pelosi about her district. Because they're afraid of her, because they're a bunch of wimps and Woossey's, journalists. But they'll certainly stick it to the other side. Anyway, just a little food for thought on both sides of the aisle. And that's how you get to, we're going to run probably $2.2 trillion this year in deficit. While the president tries to tell you all this money's coming in because of tariffs, which is not,

it's money that's already here being paid to the Treasury. from companies like Apple, I think paid $1.9 billion. Ford paid a bunch, but everybody's paying a little bit. I am in hopes it works. I'm rooting for them. I hope it doesn't backfire. All I want is success. Don't think that's asking much. Ladies and gents. In other news, maybe there's going to be a ceasefire in God. Hamas. Hey, gee, maybe we're going to let go with the hostages. Hey, thanks. The amazing thing is

the other side has to give up terrorists to get innocent hostages back. How does that work? None of it I understand. And I certainly don't understand all these people defending the indefensible. It's stunning to watch. but welcome to the world. Just remember, they're not out to get Jews.

They're out to get Americans, Jews, the whole West, and take it over. And they'll do it through murder or any other means necessary. How do we know? Just like we talk about the market. In real time, they prove it. What else we got for you? tidbits this is the one only

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quick draw fly is a game changer with over 30 million pairs sold there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you don't settle for less go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your

earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes

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Inversters Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Well, in Fantasy League, I was playing somebody who was winless and I was undefeated, and I lost. Oh, well. Oh, well. What can I tell you? Now, when I walk backwards and I tell you about that I'm worried of what can happen in markets. I have a biotech stock that was up $121 to $130 today that has no sales. How's that?

Do you know why? because a person that went to jail in the past say they had a price target for it. No, not kidding. No, not kidding. A person who went to jail for financial crimes puts out a note on a zero sales biotech stock. No, really. He was serving sentence for securities fraud and was released in 22. He was barred from the pharmaceutical industry due to price gouging of drugs and other anti-competitive practices.

He buys a stock, writes a note on Twitter today, and it closed at $130 up $121.21. No, not making this up. No, not making this up. It traded 24 million shares today. There's hardly anything in the float. Think about this. A guy who went to jail for financial crimes puts out a stock on Twitter, X, and everybody jumps all over it.

This is the type of stuff that has the two words. written all over it. Warning shot. Warning shot. Warning shot. So stay tuned. In 99, 2000, we had no clue what was coming. We will be prepared if it hits again. This is just another example. And why is it occurring? Market cycles. Japan last night was up 4%. they have a new person run in the joint, a woman, that, by the way, sounds Trumpian, wants to keep borders closed and all that, but is also wants easy money. There's been, I think, 160 to 170 lowering of interest rates by central banks in the last year or so around the globe. That's what does it. Easy money. Which takes me to Paul Tudor Jones. He was on CNBC this morning agreeing with your handsome and buffed host. We have told you in the past, this is what we're worried about.

Paul Tudor Jones was on CNBC today. I don't usually mention that place, but it's okay for once. And he said that there is a change. chance for a 99-type move because of all the things we have said to you. Our answer to that is, we'll see. But Paul Tudor Jones is one of those people we pay attention to. But the weight of the evidence coming in now, just add another one to the list. A man that went to jail for financial crimes, mentions a biotech with no sales. I think it just started trading today.

I don't have a market cap as of yet. Closed at 130 up $121.21. By the way, you really couldn't get in. I think they did a bunch of stopped trading throughout the day. Yeah. They stopped trading at 1250. They opened it up at 125 and stopped it immediately, opened it back up at 220,

and there was two or three more stops during the day. By the way, they closed it at $43. They opened it at 54, closed it at 66, opened it at 115. You think this is normal? Stay tuned, kids. It's going to be funky. And if anything changes, we'll let you know. We're going to watch very closely what's happened in the Middle East.

Greta was kicked out of Israel. know where these people come from. You've been reading about that? They had a flotia to Israel, and Israel just picked them up, put them in jail for a day, and then sent them home. And they were saying they were treated terribly in their line. The world's going nuts. We'll try to keep it on nuts. You have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Oh, yeah, and the government shut, supposedly. Good night, all. Until tomorrow. Bye-bye.

This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-drop.

fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.