Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - EVERYTHING SLAM [08.01.2024]

Episode Date: August 1, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Valued to 3.27, selection varia for place, program of lealtatatat subject to terms and conditions, details in the ProDisc or Lows. com, diagonal term,

subject to a cambobobobobos. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kalpom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.

Happy that you are listening. It's August 1st. It's Thursday. It's 2024. Hope you're having a good day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk about everything that affects you. everything we do the markets the economy

the central bankers the more locks in DC taxes deficit spending scams shams corruption you name it we will cover it and we do it without any agenda any ulterior motive or any bias whatsoever when it comes to politics

we have a motto we can't stand any of them we will discuss policy and explain who we think have a better policy but overall that was So we get a lot of hate from everybody, but that's okay. We're cool. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. That's all. Why? Because we're very nice. If we had friends, they would tell you. Ladies and gentlemen, you know how we end the show a lot?

Or when we talk markets, we'll say, and we have no clue what happens tomorrow in the market. And that's true. We really have no clue from day to day in the market. What we try to do here is just get main trends right. If you can get the main trends right, you're going to do fine. That goes for the downside. One of the great things we do for you here and for our peeps is when we say, avoid this area. avoid that area.

Or in 22, when it was a bare market and we're out. Or right before COVID, two days before the COVID crash, we were out. And that was pure luck because we didn't know the COVID crash was coming, but the leading stocks were breaking down. And we had them. And we can go on and on of every sector that goes into a bare market. every stock. And it doesn't mean we don't lose money because we're always looking for things that we call launching pads, breaking out of ranges, popping off of moving averages, and they fail.

But we have that other motto, when wrong, be wrong, fast, be wrong, small. And since we're so specific on where we do things, we're very specific on where we get out of things. and the hope is we have enough things that come off the launching pads and do what Nvidia did this year or meta did this year, for example. And then you get into the markets that are just paining the arses. And what these are the ones that just drive you up a wall and what we just try to tell you is take your time. And these are the areas where the strength is and these are the areas where the weaknesses,

which takes us to yesterday. And I'm just going to give you a number. was I'm pretty sure this is right 343 and what 343 was the semiconductor index and why am I starting you out with the semiconductor index because I just think it's very important to the markets that's all we have shown you through the years how important it is to the markets they have been a very good what we would call Bellwether, Harbinger, of the markets, though not 100% of the time.

Another part we watch is the financials. And then of course, what's ever leading, what's ever lagging, and all that. So yesterday, the semiconductors are up 343.7%. Seven freaking percent. A big wow. But we were nonplicated. You know what non-plus mean?

It just means, yeah, okay. Let's see if we can get some follow-through. It was a real strong day off of something Microsoft said that juiced the semiconductors. They mentioned something to the effect of how much money they're going to spend on artificial intelligence. And boy, they juice things. Lamb Research and Equipment Maker,

important name closed it 855 the day before and closed yesterday and was up $75 yesterday it's a huge move for a stock ASML another equipment guy out of Dutch closed the day before at 860 closed at 936 closed at 936 holy crap but when we did our scale What we found was the semiconductors were down 18% from the July 11th high. So we were definitely going to get a bounce somewhere. We don't know where because bounce is a random. And usually they take a few days to bounce.

But yesterday we had this thing, what we call a jam on the bounce. And we didn't know what would happen today. We knew there were some earnings reports in semiconductors. Lamb Research, arm holdings, two important names. And we do know as we went through the semis and we did it for our peeps last night, we went through like 75 semiconductor names. The patterns were terrible. They weren't impressive.

By the way, we're waiting for Amazon and Apple. Amazon closed at 184. It's 180 right now. Whoopi. Apple doesn't report for a while. And all I can tell you is, yesterday, The semiconductors bounced 343, the all-important semiconductors. Today, they were down 373, right back down and more.

At one time today, they were down about 420 until the market bounced late in the day a little bit. We'll get into the rest of the market a bit. I'm just bringing up the semiconductors because it's a big wow. And get this. Lamb Research today on their earnings was down $91. I believe at one time today was down 107.

Arm Holdings, not an unimportant name, down $23 today. And in case you want to know about, they tell you to hold long term, arm holdings was just 189, it's 121. What is that about, 68 bucks on 189? What is that about?

Oh, 36% or something like that. But just think long term. We're just starting out making the point. The semiconductors were getting trash today and worsened than yesterday. And we don't know what tomorrow is going to bring because you got Amazon reporting. You got Apple reporting. But I think that's really it as far as real important after the close. Booking Holdings, Square, one of the coined things, draft kings, another coin thing, micro-strand, there's a few other things, we'll see.

But we just wanted to start you off with that. Now, of course, if the semiconductors did that, it was probably not a great day. And you're right. The good news is the Dow was down 500. No, the bad news is the Dow was down 500. The good news is it was down 700. The good news is the NASDAQ was down 405 today. No, the bad news it was down 405.

I got to get that right. The good news is it was down 550 at one time today. They pretty much hit them all today, except for earnings reactions and very, very defensive areas. Dow down 500, S&P 75, NASDAQ 405, NASDAQ 104-72, transports 271, SOX373, the German Dax was down 425, the Nikkai in Japan was down 975, advanced declines were putrid today. You know what was strong today?

Get this. Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Coke, Pepsi, the tobacco companies, other medicals, utilities, drugs. That's it. Now, what does that signify? So we're going to do as much as we can do a deep dive for you guys on a radio show. We did it last night in our webcast, and all we did was we put up the 10-year yield. The TNX. We'll explain that up next and why it's so important. This is the one on the Investor's Edge.

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See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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That's 888-4-2-2-5-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. So, we have no clue what happens tomorrow. Amazon now is down about seven bucks in the aftermarket. It's back and forth. It was just down 10. Now it's seven. It was four. Whatever.

That'll change. as we move forward. Because as you know, they do the report. They do the guidance. You know, and everything's great with guidance. And then everybody starts talking up AI. Everything is artificial intelligence, ladies and gentlemen, didn't you know? So that'll change.

I'm noticing Intel getting trashed in the aftermarket. It's in the Dow, but it's, not important to the Dow in that it's $29 before the close. It's $2590 right now, down from 29, which is actually a big move for an Intel. I mentioned to you the 10-year yield. What is so important with the 10-year yield? Well, what I've been telling you, and is quite simple, The 10-year yield is what matters most to me. Maybe not to others, but trust me when I say I know what I'm talking about. It's something I follow big time.

And the 10-year yield is the defining force. It is the driving force behind what you pay on your mortgages and loans and other things. On the lending front, our central bank deals with the Fed funds rate. And this is a rate that banks deposit and lend to each other back and forth on. Let's backtrack. First off, we don't believe there should be a central bank because we don't believe these people have a clear understanding of things and they also have a bias. And let me explain their bias. they think they're always right.

Remember how sure they were about inflation being transitory? They swore by it. Well, let me tell you what happened back then. I'm going to try and explain this as easy and best as possible. What matters most is the free market, the real yields. Jay Powell interfered with them for a while. he printed out of thin air $9 trillion to $9 trillion. I think it started three or four.

Took that money, which is an unimaginable amount and bought the living crap out of the bond market and took rates to zero. That's how you got your 3% mortgage. I believe the 10-year yield was down, it was under 1%. But that was artificial. That was one man with no accountability,

and I still don't understand how anybody gets that to the point to be the most powerful person on earth to use that kind of conjured up dollars. So what happened? Because they believe their geniuses and never wrong,

we told you that that would create inflation. All this money chasing nothing defines what inflation comes from. They don't get any blame, because they're not elected.

Elected officials only blame elected officials. The media only blame elected officials. So they get a pass. We were right. Nobody listens to us still. A few people are getting it, but they get ignored. But here's what happened. I want you to listen carefully.

Jay Powell stayed at 0% interest rates. Wouldn't move Fed funds. But once he stopped printing and controlling the markets, the 10-year yield started going up. Why would the 10-year yield go up? Oh, it's very simple. Because they were normalizing at the time. Normalizing to inflation. Because inflation goes up, interest rates are going up.

As interest rates went up, J-Powl was loathe, to move. He sat there. He, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, were out every day telling us inflation was transitory. Don't worry. But then what happened was interest rates kept going higher and the market was pissed off, the stock market, because inflation eats into things. Finally, Jay Powell had to admit they were wrong. Janet Yellen had to admit. they were wrong. And it's such a bad wrong. I can't begin to tell you. And they've gotten this big pass and keep their jobs. So finally they played catch up. Raise rates, raise rates, raise rates, raise rates, get in line with the market. And they finally caught up to the 10-year

yield with his Fed Funds rates. Finally, caught up. And then rates were about 4.9,000. percent on the 10-year yield. Remember, with 3-9 now, he went to 5 and a quarter, 5 and a half. Just so you know, there's a spread on their Fed funds. It'll be 5 and a quarter on the low end, 5 and a half percent on the high end. But then something happened. And it's pretty simple. Yield started plunging. But that's actually a good thing. Because yields coming down help you. help me. It gets you less if you buy a 10-year bond, but it helps the mortgage side, lending side.

So they started coming down. And markets reacted well. They kept going up, but the yields kept going down and kept going down. And Jay Powell's supposed to be in line with markets. He went to five and a quarter when it was at five. But here's the problem now. Jay Powell's at five and a quarter on the low end. The yield is at 3.9% now. He's now too high on the other end. And the markets know it. And there's been a bunch of pressure recently.

First, on the good end, they started rallying the small and the midcaps and the financials because rates coming down. But economic numbers have been now coming out. We've been telling you about them weakening and weakening and weakening not only manufacturing but services. We just had a 2.8% GDP and what do we tell you? Bull crap. Too much government in there. Government doesn't produce. They suck you. They suck. They're like a Hoover vacuum. It wasn't really 2.8. So what happens next

with Jay Powell and yields? I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect

fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million, pair sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing all. audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast

might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, the economy's slowing and the yields are telling Jay Powell. to start lowering rates or get going lower rates. And guess what Jay Powell did yesterday? I don't watch his press conferences. I can't.

It's nauseating. Because I just hate that he is in that job. And I hate there's even a central bank. The problem now is, and I'm going to just Google something, Federal Reserve meetings, the need. The next meeting is not till September 18th is the announcement. Last eye look, we just hit August 1st. You've got a month and a half before their next announcement.

And by the way, they have already telegraphed. They've said it without saying it because they're good at telegraphing. That they are going to lower rates a quarter point. What may be the problem? he was too slow when inflation was getting out of hand to the upside. They're now too slow when the economy, I'm not going to say getting out of hand,

I'm saying the economy is slowing and maybe sharply. He's too slow to play catch-up to them free market. The big money, the smart money, the 10-year yield that's now down to 3.5%. 0.976%. And we may have been, we may be hitting moments here that started July 11th, but now the issue being, we had the moment where the lower yields juiced interest rate sensitive areas. we had the moment where they juiced housing stocks, interest rate sensitive. We may now be past the moment where the market is in recognition that he's now way behind what's necessary the other way.

And human nature for Jay Powell and just letting you know, they don't think they're ever wrong. trust me they never want to admit they were wrong about inflation and they made it kind of like much ado about nothing and then do da da da da da da and Biden came out and all of a sudden it wasn't transitory it was the the Putin price hike and this that and the other thing and now in real time and as we state I have no clue about tomorrow in real time they're crushing economically sensitive names again retail names the oils today transports again, Caterpillar deer, and even them financials that we haven't bought any because we hate slow boats. But a bunch of them

today gave back a ton of what they had gained. Bank America and Wells Fargo broke the 50-day moving average today. By the way, there's a lot of lightning and thunder outside as I speak. So just letting you know a moment, and it was a very rough day, notwithstanding, they bounced it towards the end of the day, and notwithstanding Apple and Amazon, Amazon is not happy in the aftermarket, and is certainly not helping. It is now down, and this is important, $12 in the aftermarket.

and let me get out my very important have it here somewhere. Amazon is 5% of the NASDAQ 100 and 3.6% of the S&P. We'll see what that means. And we're awaiting Apple that should come out in the next few minutes while we're on air. So just letting you know, just letting you know, ew, today. tomorrow is another day. Let me mention again, Intel. Holy crap is down from 29 to 2480,

which is not going to hurt the Dow much because it's price-weighted, but certainly ain't going to help the semis. And certainly it needs to come out of the Dow. I think I've been saying that for four years now. Microchip in the semis. Another one, let's take a look. Closed it, 84 is now 7.5.

I just talking semis. Snap, who always disappoints. Close at 1280, it's 1040. Booking Holdings. Close at 3664. It's got a big spread I can't tell. So we'll see. But not a good Amazon.

I have yet to go through the numbers. Which has me segueing. Here's some great news. The scumbagugughey running Russia, released his hostages. They are not prisoners. They are hostages.

They cut some deal with other countries in us. I didn't read into it. I was very busy today. Who, what, and where. But I am thrilled that the Wall Street Journal, journalist is back. And that other guy, I forgot his name, Walla, whatever,

has been there for six years. And do not forget, these are hostages. They are not prisoners. They are not. criminals. And I do believe, yes, I saw a video. I'm not sure where he came from. One of the exchanges was for an assassin, a Russian assassin. So that was some good news. At least today, we'll take that, right? What else did I write down today? We got an election. And as you know, we've been covering it every day. Without buying.

We didn't want either of these two running, and that goes for Kamala Harris. She's left of Biden. So have an election, and I just need to let you know. Google. If you Google, Trump rally, Kamala Harris rally in Atlanta comes up. Underneath that is hundreds of Harris for President golf carts roll through Trump stronghold. catching my drift. So just letting you know

Google's pulling their crap, Facebook Meta already had apologized for some things that happened on their website or whatever app or whatever they're called an app. So we're just letting you know that crap's going on again.

And you already know about the media, we've been already ripping them. And it's a shame. But it's the nature of the beast. They did it before they're doing it again, and that's the story on that. Which takes me to Trump. We are addressing those of you who want Trump to be the next president of the United States. That's who we are addressing.

You better speak to him because, unfortunately, errors abound for the ex-president wanting to be the next president because it should be it's never easy we're close to a 50-50 country but it should be easy based on the horrible policies of the Biden-Harris administration the number of the number of the number of the The numbers on the border are nightmarish. The numbers on inflation, ridiculous. Yes, the rate of inflation is down, but prices are way elevated. Afghanistan?

A nightmare for the women of Afghanistan in the dark ages. For people supposedly that care so much about women, they left the Afghani women in the the dust. I can think of a dozen other things. But unforced error after unforced error, we'll have that. We'll have Apple up next. See what that's doing. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero shave thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer with over 30 million pairs sold there are

thousands of men out there more comfortable than you don't settle for less go to tommyjohn dot com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort that's tommyjohn.com code comfort Tommy john. Tompford perfected this message is brought to you by the capital one venture x card venture x offers the premium benefits you expect like a 300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your friends. podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well

publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Okay, Apple. you know closed a 218.36 down about for the day was down $3.72. It's all over the map right now. I have it a 221. So it's up a couple of bucks. About 30 seconds ago it was a 215 down a bunch. Then it was up a little bit. Right now it's 220. So it's going to change left and right all around up and down, but the story is Amazon, not a good day. Apple so far at first blush, just up a little bit. And very important between Apple and Amazon, get this, not making this up.

Apple is 7% of the S&P, Amazon 3.65. So let's call it 10.6% those two. And of the NASDAQ 100, Apple and Amazon, Apple's 8.85% of the NASDAQ 100. Holy crap. So we'll see how it plays out. And look, it's trading like a pinball machine. It's lighten up like a pinball machine. Anything's possible where it's going to go.

We told you we sold our Apple around 228. We don't own it right now. It's 220 and change right now. We'll see. So we're back to Trump. Let me tell you the last two days. I loved what he did yesterday. He went into the, I guess you can call it the belly of the beast.

a journalist, black journalists, and they were, we mentioned this yesterday, but I want to go a little bit further. They were totally antagonistic. The woman from ABC was there to just rip him to shreds. What did he do? He brings in race. He makes comments,

and you know what the big story now is for the next 7, 10, 20 days? That. Think about that. And I'm not here to even comment on what he said. Right, wrong, indifferent. I don't care. But he brought that up. And now they're exclaiming it's like the Barack Obama birther moment.

And now that's everybody talking about. Unforced error number one. What he should have done right then and there. And she ripped them to him. Let me give you the numbers on black employment when I was the president. because the numbers were good. Let me tell you what I plan on doing to solidify that when I'm president.

Those are my goals. Nope. Race. What else did he do today? Well, we had some hostages freed. Americans. This is great news. No words from the president, President Trump on,

we are so happy the hostages have been released. Nope. The way the Biden administration handled this was terrible, money this and money that and how they did this. No. Just say you're happy that Americans were released. Nope. You throw in the divisive.

What's the number one goal for Donald Trump into November? It is to win votes, not piss off people. people. And as I have told you in the last election, he lost because he, the down ballots. There were plenty of people in these states where were slivers he lost by, where they voted all Republican except for Trump, because they were tired of divisive. So I don't think he's measured it well, and I'm not done. Do you know who Norr O'Donnell is? She is the CBS Evening News anchor. I don't know how many years she's been there. I never watched the 630 CBS News or the NBC or ABC because at 630 Big Bang Theory is on. I tape Brett Bear and watch it later.

My two favorites, Neil Cavuto and Brett Bear. What does he do? He makes fun of a working woman. Sad. She's this, that, and the other thing. Do you know who? Didn't vote for Donald Trump in the last election? You know where he lost votes?

Working women! And I'm thinking to myself today, is he trying to lose the election? Because that's how I would do it. That's how I would try to lose the election. Piss off working women. Talk race. And when American hostages are freed, talk about how bad Biden is on the release of the American hostages. as you know

I can take me both of them but on the economy it is going to be imperative they can have to stop confiscating our wealth to put into their coffers they're proposing

trillions and trillions of dollars of taxes on you and I to pay for their nonsense if you know anybody there you better make the call. When I was in high school and I was up for wittiest in my, I don't know if it was junior, senior year, you know what I did to win? I handed out candy. I was trying to bribe

with votes. I still lost the Stephen Shrego, but I did everything possible to be nice to the people, the students that voted. And by the way, Stephen Shrago was very witty. So just letting you know, the one thing he's got going from Trump, Kamala Harris, is she had 1% polls in the primary. And as I've said to you, it doesn't matter who you put in running against Trump, it's still going to be a close to a 50-50 country. So it's going to be a sliver again. Anyway, that's my take. And anybody on that Trump side curse me out, you're stupid. You should be thanking me.

and that is all. We move on. Tomorrow, Apple, it's up a buck and change in the aftermarket. Amazon, down 12. Probably no help. Today, yikes.

Wish I had better news. We'll be on with Neil Cavuto tomorrow, noon hour. Fox Business Network, check that out. Until then, drive carefully. Make sure you hug your children. Make sure you hug your family. They'll feel better. You'll feel better.

Peace out. Have a great evening. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.