Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Exact Spot To Bounce.

Episode Date: December 21, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. I've been telling everybody the whole day it was December 22nd, but it's only December 21st. That's how my day is going. But hope you're doing well. And as we've been saying every day, happy holidays, Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. you celebrate, we wish you well. We wish you a great time. Wish you the best of health. We wish

you the best of wealth. Prosperity. Hope you're hanging with your family. Don't drink and drive. Marijuana is overrated. And all that crap. Do you know what I had to do in the last two days? I changed my flight up to the northeast to see my family four times now because of ever-changing weather. It's going through the Midwest. It's going to end up east. And I just happened to know some people at one of the airlines, and I got them on the phone, and I said, well, I have a flight tomorrow night to New York. I was thinking of changing it to Friday. What do you think of those two days? His exact words, leave now. And he said that, doesn't mean there's going to be trouble, but

realize the reason why all these flights end up being late is because these flights come from places that may not be in great shape, meaning weather and all that. So I'm out of here tonight. I was tomorrow. I changed it to Friday. I changed it back to Thursday. I changed it back to Friday, and I changed it back to tonight. I changed it to tonight, which I wasn't doing in the first place. And that is that. That is my travel stuff for today. As you know, this is a show about everything that affects you. And I know what you've been hearing today. I know what people

have been yelling and screaming today. I know what's been on the media today. I know what you're thinking today, but they're not giving you the whole story. You see, they're telling you, there's this $1.7 trillion bill coming from both parties. spending bill and how it's 4,000 pages three times the size of the Bible. Nobody has read it. There's all kinds of other things in there that really shouldn't be in there, this, that, and the other thing. But they ain't telling you the whole story. You know that, right?

That's what we do. You know what we do here. We fill in the blanks. And why do we bring it up? Because it has everything to do with you and your money. Who do you think is paying for it? Oh, but Gary, they're just going into debt. They're printing money.

It's not really coming out of our taxes. Oh, it's coming out of the economy. Don't you think when you have massive debt and deficits, capital, that could be deployed for production, gets deployed to pay back and interest payments? What have we told you? 1.6 billion a day is going towards interest per day. Imagine if we didn't have all that what the money can do. Imagine 1.6 billion a day.

By the way, it's a lot more now because interest rates are up. let's call it $2 billion a day whatever goes towards interest it goes towards nothing not to the children in need starving children

not to the elderly not to the downtrodden not to the sick not to the streets not to the roads not to the bridges not to the airports not to the cracks in the sidewalks it's going toward its interest

because of the criminal acts of all these people in Washington DC who have the grapefruits to come out with a $1.7 trillion spending bill, but it's not. It's more like close to $6 trillion. Just remember, add everything up. You got to add everything. Our federal spending going forward is going to be about $5.8 trillion. Now, let's put it in perspective.

I want you to think about this. Because nobody else is going to tell you this. Only we. Bill Clinton's last year, federal spending, was $1.8 trillion. It's now $5.8 trillion, and all we've got to ask is where the hell is the money going? Well, let me tell you what their excuse is. Well, it's entitlements, it's Social Security, it's Medicare, it's all these things. You know, my next statement would be, you know, my next question would be,

yeah, but you're the guys who set up the Social Security and the Medicare, and you haven't fixed it. You haven't done anything about it. You forgot about demographics. You forgot about aging of America. And you stole the money. No, not kidding. Let me go one further. They just signed an $858 billion defense bill.

$8.58 billion defense bill. Now, you know what they tell us? Oh, we need to. We need to because all these other countries. That's me pushing buttons. That's them telling us, oh, we need to. We must. Look at the rest of these countries and what they're doing.

That's a lie. And I bring up $858 billion defense bill because in that year of 2000, it was $320 billion. It's almost tripled. And they tell us it's a must. It's needed. Really? Really. Really?

You believe that? Do you believe that? 858 billion. Do you also know they did an audit and another audit and another audit and another audit of our Defense Department, the Pentagon? And guess what? They can't figure out where trillions went. And here's my point. Remember what I said? 320 billion in the year 2,858. But we have to spend this much because everybody else. Are you ready? We're going to spend $8.58 billion this coming year. You know who's number two? China. They're $293 billion. We're all worried about Russia. $66 billion.

You got that? But we need to spend $8.58. There's no accounting. There's no accountability. There's no oversight. They're just killing us. And this is coming from me. I believe the security of this country is number one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten.

I really do. But, but, but, but to what? And how much? What they have done is they've created this gargantuan cesspool. It's the Democrats and Republicans. You know you seek some Republicans complaining now. You know, those same Republicans didn't utter a word during Trump's fiasco of spending. You know, Trump, the one who said that, oh, you know, I'm the greatest businessman ever, the greatest dealmaker ever, and I'm going to be able to cut deficits in debt easily.

Six to seven trillion dollars more debt later. And of course, Biden has now taken the championship belt away from Trump, even though he said he's cut the deficit big time, which is a gargantuan lie. as Joe Biden has taken the championship belt on lying from Donald Trump, which is very tough to do. And of course, you probably don't know it because the media don't say a freaking word. So we'll cover it. The only reason deficits come down from the high is because of COVID. You know, our deficit this year is still going to be $1.4.15 trillion a year,

a record before COVID. Joe Biden's a liar. So we just wanted to start with this because we know what you. You're hearing today about a $1.7 trillion spending bill, but it's not. They're going to go about $6 trillion. And deficits, they're probably going to take in four, maybe a little more. We're going to have $1.5.5 trillion of debt in the next year. And you wonder why I can't stand any of these people.

And I'm still amazed. We can't get 1 million, 2 million, 3 million citizens to just go on to the capital lawn with signs that says stop the spending. They'd probably hear us if we had a couple of million people. But I'm no big shot that, like the Rogans and all that, that have bazillion people listen to them. So, like, not going to happen. And they will continue their ways until they continue to crush us.

Remember, they are our opponents. They are our opponents now. They're not on our side. It's a laugherama. and they're reporting $1.7 trillion spending when, let me repeat, it's going to be in the high fives. Up next. We told you about the 50-day move-in average yesterday. What did it do today?

I'm Gary. This is the one on the Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretion. money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the

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VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. Agents who are realtors do more than open doors. They have the ethical expertise, market data, and tools to bring you home. So when looking for a home, look for the R and work with a member of the National Association of Realtors. They're right by you. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So when they tell you How much we need to spend on defense?

We spend more than China in the United Kingdom, Russia, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Australia, Canada, Iran, and Israel put together. They are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fourteen, the next fourteen in spending, military spending. So, again, we strip away the noise, we strip away the BS, we strip away the lies, that noise, that no, Nobody wants to tell you, or some people tell you, but you remember everybody's in their little, you know, they're in their little corners defending this, that, and the other thing, and they're all killing us. That's all. Oh, and by the way, they've spent, I'm going to guess, $75 trillion since the year 2000 federally, and they tell us they need more for infrastructure. Only $75 trillion. Federally.

That is not state. That's not city. That's not local. That's not county. That's not your condominium board. that's federally. But they need more. Gotta raise taxes.

Say the Marxists. Again, we're very good at simplifying things here, kids. We're very good at it. All right. So yesterday on the show, we had told you something very important. I take that back.

Something important. It turns into very important for the day. We told you that, A, the market's oversold, And that just means it's gone so far down so fast and you get bounces. But we also told you the strongest index was the Dow and it was right at the support area. It's called the 50-day moving average. And for those that don't understand what the hell we're talking about,

even though they've listened for a while and still don't, let me explain. It's price. The 50-day moving average is, yeah, the last 50 days up of a stock. a sector or mark, whatever, an index, add it up and divide by 50 and you smooth out. You smooth out price movement. And all we can tell you is price gets defended or given up at that important level. And why do we say it's important? Because it just works. That's all. Throughout history, it's where institutions step up to defend. In a bull market, it defends pullbacks leading to further gains.

In a bare market, well, let me take that back, in a bull market, in a market that's trying to come out of bare markets, as price starts turning and the 50-day moving average starts turning up, it defends. And of course, in recent couple of weeks, a ton of them got broken. the one thing that did not was the Dow. And the Dow being the leading index, you got to watch it. And guess what the Dow did today?

Not only did it bounce off, move off this important 50-day moving average, it gapped off of it. You think somebody was looking at it and saying, hey, it's the end of the year. We need, you know, that's what happened today. Got defended. Other names that were around the 50-day moving average. average coming in today, you had some solar stocks, you had like IBM, you had like Schwab, GE, KLA 10 Corps, Eli Lilly, Black Rock. Guess what they all did today?

They bounced off of it. What's the problem? Most stocks are still below it. So we're just talking about the things that just got hit that are holding. And guess what we do now? we watch if they break back below

it's the next leg down in the market or do they continue up and do we see more names coming on that's what we call cards coming out of the deck looking for more cards and that's what happened today right out of the box boom up 300

and change and extended it a little bit still down for the month still no lead there's seven new yearly highs in the market at least when I was looking about two hours ago seven new yearly highs

and as you know we talked about how many new yearly lows recently but good day today not going to complain on the day we're just going to say good day today

Dow held support SMP S&P 500 needs to get back above It's a little bit below. That doesn't mean great things are going to happen. It just means not bad things can happen. Remember, this is the rule of the 50-day moving average. This is the physicality of it.

Nothing good can happen if you're below. It's a fact of life. Nothing good can happen if you are below the 50-day moving average in price. So it's imperative. It's a must. We'll keep on top of it. Today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. Dowp 526. I think it opened 300 and change. S&P up 56. Now, here's the good news. Well, better news.

NASDAQ finally got a little traction today. Up 162, NASDAQ, 100, 163. The SOX was up 60. The transports were up 179. advance the client's pretty good today so not not much in the way of complaining really unless you have a stock today that's down that would be bad news you always want to keep up with the market what else did I notice today and this is of import Apple well first off Apple was up three bucks today somebody had some good comments

said something about this that and the other thing what we're always watching for is important levels. Long-term support on Apple is around 132 to 133. Around 132-133. It went underneath it this morning. It got back above it at the close. That's the story. That helps.

And just a good overall day. Our favorite solar name that, still in doing nothing, broke below support today, finished up 15. Things like that. Financials had a better day and you know how we feel about financials. They've been clipped recently, especially the regional banks. Market ain't going up unless they participate. They had a better day today.

Still look like crap. What I'm thinking here, this is just short-term stuff. Short-term stuff. Market found an area today. Got tired, enough. the regional bank index went down. You ready for this? 14% in less than two weeks.

Just for starters. Up next, we'll go through the rest. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

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1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. What else today?

Nike finished up 12 and a half today Not impressed Why? It was up 16 You want to stick And it's still in the bare market FedEx Was up 560 today Not impressed

Was up 10 But they had good reactions Nike's earnings were Pug Sales growth not bad FedEx numbers were pitiful But they beat the lower number We'll throw him a party.

Earnings, the rest, there's hardly anything next week. I think there may be a couple of things this week, not sure which ones. Nothing of big notes. Of course, a big note will be third week of January when we get fourth quarter stuff. And it's going to be interesting to see. Micron did report after the close. They missed by two cents. Guides February earnings per share below consensus.

but expects the improving customer inventory that's nice. Stocks flatten the aftermarket. Oh, yeah, by the way, they lost money for the quarter and they get much worse loss going

forward. And boy, oh boy, revenue growth to be down. Huge. Wow. Huge. Forty-fifty percent. But guess what, the stock's down already. 50%. That's a lot we're going to be watching for. You know how many stocks are down just huge? Just huge, humongous? A bunch. So the question's going to be, are they sold out,

or do we have a lot more to go? Answer is, don't know just yet. We'll be certainly on it. and you know our worries going forward. I don't think we can lose the job market. I think it is so imperative that the job markets stay in good shape. And by the way, the job markets in what I would call good shape, especially all things considering. Now, guess what? We are losing some jobs.

Of course, in the crypto field, a ton of jobs. The mortgage-related field, a ton of jobs, though interest rates are back down a little bit, and that can't hurt. But I really worry about, you know what industry? The service industry. If we lose the job market, what do you think happens to discretionary spending? What do you think happens to hotels and airlines and cruise lines? And by the way, those stocks are not acting very well at all. In fact, pretty terribly. And even on a 500 point day today, the hotel stocks got hit today. That's what I'm worried about and watching most. and I have a good ear to the ground because of my little infantile network of people that I know in industry.

I have a good feel for delivery of a lot of products. I have a good feel for the travel-related industry on several fronts and retail. Mui Importante. And I must add, my latest, greatest that I have good network on, the auto industry. I actually have a decent network on autos. So stay tuned. It wasn't a reach that the crypto industry would go night night. It wasn't a reach that the mortgage industry would be troubled.

Housing, I'm sure there's some issues with that. Also right now. To what extent I don't know. speak to some realtors that the phones aren't ringing right now. The best news I can give you, I can't find a bullish economist on Wall Street, except the permables, that if the United States fell into the sea, they'd stay bullish. It seems everybody is calling for the end of the world in 2003. You know what we're going to do. We're going to watch price. We're going to watch the market. market is the final arbiter of your wallets and what they do and you know i'm speaking to a lot of people

right now you know what i'm recommending to them because i can tell their temperature go by a one-year note get yourself foreign change and not have to worry about this you know i don't talk about it a lot we interview people more than they interview us we want people to be able to sleep at night we have a good feel these days of people that would not sleep at night if they were in the market or continue to be in the market even with this handsome and buff radio guy we've actually turned down people we just want people to sleep and when there was zero percent income it's one story you now get you in the fours one of my buddies would tell me there's a fight on by a financial institutions on CDs. They're given out teaser CD rates again. Fives and sixes I'm hearing.

That's third hand, but I'm pretty sure that's the case. You can look around now and Google highest CD rates. That's going on now. Remember, the maniac Powell killed that. Highest CD rates. I'm putting that in right. now. Today's best CD rates. Blu, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. There's a, well, here's a one year at 4.15 from Capital One, but that's Capital One. By the way, you do know not to get CDs from crypto companies, right? Have you learned that yet? There you go. Here's a 5%er. I'm not going to mention names. You guys have to look for yourself. And here's a 6%er. I just found. I found a 6.17. I just found the 7.5 CD rate. It's probably a teaser though. You know what that means? 7.5 for now and I'm not going to spend the time looking. And then it notches down to normal rates. They're coming on you. They're coming after you. Anyway, just letting you know that business is going on now. In case you don't want to deal with this nausea of the market. Which, by the way, is quite insane.

No, really. It's quite the insane market. And just so you know, as much as you're all very nice, as much as I'm very nice, the market doesn't like us, doesn't care about us, wants to bury us. So guess what our job is? To make sure it doesn't bury us! And that's why we work so hard at this.

I think you know that by now. What else today? A little better. You know what? Mostly green today. The only red I see. Some of the biotech, the hotels definitely, and I must tell you, the bombed out software types would really mix today. And early in the day, they were mostly red. So they still ain't going. Oil's had a better day. As we told you yesterday, the OIH services back above the 50-day moving average had another update. Unfortunately, oil prices are up to and change today, $2 in change. That's no fun because we care about what happens at the pump. But can't really complain too much. As we have now, how many days left? Seven days left in the year.

And maybe just maybe they're going to do their darnness to get as much out of it as possible. But again, very much still no leadership. when it shows up we'll be yelling and screaming. We promise. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I got a lot of emails from many of you thanking me for what I did. yesterday on the show, as I explain to you what I do every morning as far as staying on top of what's going on in the world, you just have to make a decision for yourself. How much do you want to

know? How much do you care about? I decided years ago, I wanted to be a know-it-all. I wanted to be able to talk to corporate chieftains. I want to be able to talk to the President of the United States. I want to be able to talk to the Einstein's of the world. And as you know, many years ago, we did interviews. We had the Treasury Secretary on this show several times. Elaine Chow, the Labor Secretary, used to come on. We did a couple of shows from the White House where I interviewed all the people from the Bush administration.

We had Scott McNeely from Sun Microsystems. We had Linda McMahon from the WWE. That was a good one. Major CEOs of so many companies. Tom Staggs, the ex-CFO of Disney was on here. A who's who. And to be able to talk the talk and walk to walk and ask them questions, intimate questions of their industry and of their business.

and of their business and knowing what goes on, I felt it imperative. And I'm just letting each and every one of you know that are trying to, especially you youngans who are trying to move up in life, there's nothing more important than knowledge. You know, there's this old line, too much knowledge. No, bull crap. Too much knowledge is a great thing.

Not a bad thing. And as if I also told you, and this is because of radio and TV, a big part of the equation is, I know on Saturday I'm going to be on Fox News in the 11am hour with Neil Cavuto. And I'm pretty sure he's going to bring up this spending bill. So you can be damn sure I'm going to know what's in it. There's 4,000 some odd pages. And no, I'm not going to read 4,000 pages, but I'm going to know it. And I'm going to be able to tell him things that I gather nobody else is going to tell him. That's how I look at things.

And I remember when Bush and we went into Iraq, you know what I did? I probably spent 24 total hours over a few weeks studying the tribes in Iraq, the Persmurgers and all of them. knowing what was going on there. I wanted to be able to, because I was on Fox at the time. They used to bring up Iraq to me on a business basis and what it means to oil prices. I used to love putting it in there about other things. So I'm just letting each and every one of you know

there's nothing more important than you being able. If you work at a company and you meet the CEO, that you can tell them everything you need. to know everything about his business or her business that's what I'm talking about moie importante you know what else I do I was once in a studio I found out the CEO of Marriott was going to be there Bill Marriott this was probably 2005 2006 he was going on with Neil Cavuto before me somebody told me before I got there for 30 minutes, that's all I had. I read everything there was to know

about him and his life, how many hotels Marriott had, how they run them, and how they don't own a lot of them and they just names on it. They don't own them, they just run them. That's the type of things I do. And I got into a conversation with him when I got there before he went on. I impressed the hell out of him. He didn't know before I got there I spent a half hour on it. This is what I'm talking about. So I got a lot of emails overnight and it looks like I affected a bunch of you. And for me it's now the norm. It's like brushing my teeth. If it's important, I'm learning it, even if it's unimportant. So just a little word for the wise, from the wise, I think I'm wise, it's never enough on knowledge. And tell that to your kids.

It's never enough. And I'll keep doing this to the day I go. How do you think we've been able to do what we're doing in the markets for you? It's a lot of that. We get a good fee. We get a good from knowing a lot and yeah we can still have fun just so you know I still have watched every Steinfeld episode about 40 times I've seen the office probably five or ten times big bang theory five or ten times the honeymooners 50 times I'm still I enjoy myself but you want to get ahead my latest endeavor I want to know how these people are making millions on YouTube channels. And as you know, we've told you, we're going to look to put this on the YouTube channel,

meaning you're going to be able to see me and see charts while I do the radio show, amongst some other things we're deciding to work out. There are young people that have millions of followers and make a bazillion dollars. I'm jealous. That's what we're working on now. Anyway, we're out of here. We'll emanate from NYC tomorrow. You have a great evening drive carefully, and when you get home, do like we do.

It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I do promise you that. Stay well, safe. Don't drink and driving if you travel.

Travel safe. And if you're thinking about traveling in the next couple days to the Northeast, may want to get there earlier. Have a great one, everybody. Peace out. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream. destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.