Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Extended [06.20.2024 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: June 20, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/https://adamsarhan.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Thursday, June 20th, 2024.

We've got a great show for you tonight. As always, want to thank you very much for being here. Before we dive into the specifics today, we want to let you know just some housekeeping that this show is about you, your money, all of the fun and fine points in between, and sometimes not so fun, depending on what the situation is. I try to take things in a fun way, if at all possible. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get this show in your city, you can go to garyk.com, listen live or archives. I know I do speak fast. I try to slow it down, but there's just so much I want to say and so little

time. So if you do miss anything, you can pause it, rewind it, fast forward it at your leisure 24-7, all for free on GaryK.com. That being said, also you can follow Gary on X or formerly known as Twitter by just pressing the button. There's a big button says Gary K on follow Gary on X. I'll write on GaryK.com. And then also you can subscribe to get Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox. You may email Gary, ask about his money management services, and if you'd like more from Gary, you can join Convictionleaders.com, which is his premium service. Every day he shares

updates with members. He gives daily webcasts. Every night after the close, he lets you see what he sees. He goes through charts. He goes through sectors. He goes through stocks. He goes through a lot of great stuff. And a lot more. All of that available on convictionleaders.com.

All right. Let's talk about the markets. There's one word to describe the market right now. And that's extended. When I was on Tuesday, I said the market's extended, but I'm going to spend some time here and talk to you about this because it's really, really, really, really important to understand that some of the logic behind the thought process here. First off, there's no rule that says an extended market can't get a lot more extended before it pulls back. but typically there's certain norms that happen ranges not 100% to the penny but again it's more an art than a science and when the market gets depending on the index you're looking at the s&p 500 the

nzac 100 individual stocks they get extended above the 50 day moving average by a certain amount it gets into nosebleed territory gets into the area of oh wow it's almost like screaming for a pullback It increases, here's the magic word, the probability of a pullback. That doesn't mean you have to have a pullback. It just means the probability of a pullback increases severalfold. The further you get higher or lower, you get away from the 50-day moving average. Think of the 50 almost as a magnet. So the NASDAQ 100, the QQQ, if you go there and look at the 50-day moving average,

look at where we are today. It's somewhere around 8, 7.5% above the 50. Well, the last few times, you might ask me, Adam, how do you know? how do you know if a stock is extended or the market's extended? And what is that magic number? Is it 7% above the 50%? Is it 50%, 100%, 8%, 2%. Each stock, each ETF, each market, each index is different.

And the way that you know is just by studying the way that instrument behaved in the past. That doesn't mean it's going to behave that way in the future. Past results are not indicative of future returns, so on and so forth. all it means is that it's a probability. So if you look at the NASDAQ 100, it's 7-8% thereabouts above the 50-be-moving average. Okay, coming into it, we know the last several times the market pulled back,

before it pulled back, whenever it got to 7, 8, 9, 10% above the 50, it typically, typically, not always, but typically, maybe 11 at the most I've seen recently, but typically 7 or 8%, 9% somewhere in that range for the QQQ, it's an area where, oh, the market tends to pullback. Not always, but again, that's been the last several times. Now, if you go back the last 50 years or study the last 100 years,

I'm sure there's mathematicians out there that can get more precise data, so on and so forth, I'm just looking at the last year and change. The last few big pullbacks we've had right before them, pretty much. Not everyone. The NASDAQ100, the KQQ, was more than 5% above its 50. Simple.

7, 8, 9%, somewhere in that range. 6%, 5%. Sometimes it was even lower 4%. But for the most part, it's get above 5, 6%, that's noticeably territory. 7, 8, 9%, like where we are now, 8%.

And you've had a big move up. So that's one thing to keep in mind. Now, the S&P 500, a little bit different animal, because it's not made up of the big growth tech stocks that are driving the market right now, mainly the AI stocks, like the NVIDIAs of the world or the Microsoft, which I told you on Tuesday, Navity overtook Microsoft to become the biggest company in the world,

Microsofts of the world, the apples of the world, which hit all-time highs, all these guys just about trading at all-time highs or near all-time highs, you know, so on and so forth. The S&P 500 has some of those stocks, but it also has a lot of other areas. It's made up of 500 stocks, not 100. and the NASDAQ 100 are 100 high octane stocks for the most part, not all of them, but for the most part. So it tends to outperform over the longer period of time. Now, of course, it ebbs and flows.

Sometimes the SNP outperforms, but the SNP doesn't move as much as the NASDAQ 100 does. So when the SP500 gets 4 or 5% above its 50, that's extended for that index. But 7, 8, 9, 10 for the NASDAQ 100 is extended for that index. So in each individual stock might be different depending on how it's behaved, with respect to its 50-day moving average, going back in the last 12, 18, 24 months, 36 months, however you want to look at it. It's up to you.

So, it's, again, extended. Doesn't mean you have to pull back. It just increases the odds that the market's going to pull back. And lo and behold, look what's happening. So that's one. Two, I want to share another timeless concept with you. It's everything, all my work, I try to simplify it.

You know, they teach our kids simplify your fractions, the lowest common denominator, right, in school. In my mind's eye, I want to simplify this as much as humanly possible. There's all these great quotes from people that are geniuses that say, you know, simplicity is elegance and, you know, if you can't, basically if you simplify things, you understand it. The simpler you go, the better it goes. Now, there's a big difference between simple and another S word,

which means dumb. I'm not saying go stupid or go dumb. That's not anything at all. Simple is very, very powerful. Notice the difference here. Very powerful. So when you simplify things, it's easier for my brain to understand them. And then it's easier for me to articulate them and share them with other people, right?

So let's talk about the levels of extension keep going there. So the 50 moving average on the upside in bull markets, you get extended. How high does the stock or the market go above the 50? Like the semiconductors on Tuesday, we said markets, the semiconductors are very extensive. end it. Right? So I'll get to the next concept in a second. But in bear markets, the opposite is true.

How far below the 50 does it go? And then typically before it snaps back into the 50. So the levels of extensions work on both ways. In bull markets and in bear markets. Now, the second point is the next big thing I want to share. Greenlight, red light. We all know if you drive a car anywhere in the world for the most part, at least the Western world, you've got traffic lights.

And people respect the laws. And we've got red light, you've got a green light, and you got a yellow light. All right. In the market, it's kind of the same thing. Not 100% of the penny, but close. So there's only three ways. Again, keep it simple, right? That the market can move after you buy a stock.

Or a market can move, period. It can go up, it can go down, or it can go sideways. That's it. It doesn't matter what the stock is. It doesn't matter if it's a currency, if it's a commodity, if it's real estate, you buy a house, you buy a bill, building, you buy gold, you buy silver, you buy Apple, Navidia, Microsoft, it's all the same thing. If you're putting money at risk in anticipation for reward and it's publicly traded and the

prices aren't capped or fixed by some third party, but it's a free market, it can only go up-down or sideways. Okay. Each one of those represents a light in my mind's eye. A green light is an uptrend, yellow light is sideways, and a red light is downtrend. Really that's simple. So understand that the market states change, which I spoke to you about last time briefly. And I discussed this in my book in psychological analysis, which was number one in Amazon. Thank you everybody for all the great reviews and for buying it and all that fun stuff. It was number one for three months. And in it, I outlined all the stuff and then some.

And there's some cartoons in there too. And I keep everything real simple. It's written and very easy to read language. And thank you, Sean, for that. And he's listening. He'll know. but the red light, green light, yellow light concept, the states are written in the book.

So I talk about the states of the market change. And the same thing with stocks and the same thing with currencies or commodities or me and you and all of us, right, the day. Sometimes there's daytime, sometimes it's nighttime, sometimes it's raining, sometimes it's thunder, sometimes, you know, the state ice, no, it changes. The state changes.

Sometimes I'm tired, I'm awake, I'm excited, you know, so on and so forth. So the market state change as well. Sometimes you're in an uptrend. After an uptrend, that's a green light is an uptrend, you're going to get one of two things. You're either going to get a yellow light where you go sideways or you get a red light where you pull back.

That's it. Nobody knows with 100% certainty when that uptrend is going to end, but the beauty is you don't have to know with 100% certainty. The markets by definition are uncertain. So the beauty is just to understand this is all about probabilities. and then stacking the odds of success in your favor. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan.

This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

I'm Adam Sarhan. And for Gary Kay, who's out today in case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com. Listen on any device you want for free, 24-7, which is absolutely fantastic. Thank you to modern technology. So I remember way back, 25 years ago or so, back in the late 90s, early 2000s, I was listening to Gary on AM radio. And if I missed it, I missed it. That was it.

So let's, I'm grateful for modern technology that's put it that way. All right. Speaking of technology, we've got technology stocks, semiconductor stocks extended. NASDAQA funder stocks extended. A lot of the leaders that we've seen run recently are extended. So I spoke to you about the concept of probabilities and green light, red light, and knowing when a stock or markets extended, just look at your stock and look at the past, you know, year, year and a half and see on a percent basis. Before they had pullbacks, how extended was the stock or the market or the index, whatever you're looking at from its 50-day moving average? And then if you find patterns, which is all we're looking for is patterns, it's going to increase the probability.

Oh, the last four or five times, you know, the leading stocks or whatever, tech stocks or the NASDAQ or gold, whatever it was, was X percent above its 50, three to the four times or, you know, whatever the case is, seven and a ten times or whatever the things are, most of the time, let's put it that way, it pulls back. Well, then now we're right at that level where most of the time it pulls back. Okay, noted, and then we're waiting for the pullback. So when the pullback comes, we shouldn't be surprised or caught off guard. And that's a big way, and I mean big way for us to be able to have an edge. Talk about the investors edge, right? So another way of having an edge is understanding that things, the market states change. So sometimes you're in a, you know, a good run, the green

lights on. And then after a big move up, like I mentioned earlier, there's only two ways you can consolidate that move. A, it goes sideways, or B, it goes down. And when you go sideways, which is the yellow light, it's more bullish of those two scenarios. But when you go down, there's a pullback. And pullbacks are normal and healthy in bull markets. Pullbacks are very healthy. Why? Because they shake out the weaker, the late longs or the weaker hands.

But also, it gives the market a chance to pause and catch its breath before the next leg higher. So next area. gold and silver. Look at the GLD or the SLV or gold and silver stocks, the GDX or GDXJ, the juniors or GDXJ, the bigger miners, or anything you want that represents golden silver. You had a big run-up. You broke out of a beautiful cup and handle. If you have the ability to look at a gold and silver chart on a monthly basis, go back and look at it. it was one of the best symmetrical patterns I've ever seen anywhere, bar none. And I shared it with members on fineleading stocks.com for months before it broke out. And I just said, hey, I see this pattern. I'm going to point it out, week in, week out, week in, week out.

Nothing to do yet. But if and when it breaks out, I want to be on it like white on rice. And we were. And thankfully, we did very, very well as it broke out of that huge cup and handle pattern. Okay, you don't see that often. But when you do, it's important to pay attention. That was on a monthly chart of gold. You can just type in GLD and click on a monthly chart,

and you could see it from earlier this year. It broke out, but go back the last 10, 15 years or so, 12 years. It was just a massive, massive cup and handle. Anyway, finally breaks out earlier this year. We were ready. So that's important. They're not chasing and Monday morning quarterback when you do the work. And that's the next point I'll share too.

It's the Ben Franklin's line about preparing to win. but before I get there, we were ready. So gold and silver had a huge move earlier this year. And then guess what? It got extended after the green lights over. Hey, time to pull back a little bit. And it pulled back. And it undercut the 50-day moving average just a little bit

until a day like today where gold popped and it's trying to get back its mojo and resume its uptrend again. Now, depending on your time frame, depending on how you view markets, depending on how you manage risk and depending on lots of other factors, things change and change quickly. But it's important to understand from a, you know, levels of extension standpoint, gold got extended back in late May and it pulled back. It actually got even more extended back in late April, right? The end of April, in the middle of April, you were about 11% above the 50

GLD, 9.5, 10%, 11% above the 50, and then all of a sudden you pulled back. And then early May you bounced. You rallied back out, briefly made a new high. And at that point, you were about 5.5% above the 50 because the 50 came up. And then you pulled back into early June. And now you're bouncing again and trying to get going and get its mojo back. All right.

That's how these things work. Silver, a little bit different. But it got extended and same thing. in April, it was 15% above its 50-day moving average, and then it pulled back almost perfectly into the 50-day moving average in early May, bounced again into late May, where it was 18% above its 50. Now, silver tends to be a much more volatile index or a creature or market. It's a market, so let's all call it what it is, where 18% above its 50 is not, it's almost

unheard of in something like the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100 even doesn't typically get that high. I can't even remember a time where it was that high. It might have happened before. I just can't remember it. But for silver, it just happened. And then it pulled into the 50. So green light, red light, green light,

get that concept. And then it bounced in the middle of June right off the 50 and silver. And then today you're back above the 21 day. And you're breaking above a downward trend line. So silver, gold could be reemerging. Now, if you look at silver and gold stocks, the GDX and the GDXJ, that's, again, those are ETFs that track gold and silver stocks.

They're coming up the right side as well, trying to bounce. So it's almost like a game, a relay race where you pass the baton from one person to another, where you have a situation here where tech stocks may be pausing now with the market U.S. stocks are pausing. Okay, fine. Then money's rotating into gold and silver. could be happening. Not saying it is with 100% certainty,

nobody with 100% certainty, but there's a very big probability. That's what's happening. So when you're in that situation where you have, when you're in that situation where you have golden silver emerging and you have other indices that we know, stocks or S&P and NASDAQ, semi-conductors, the SMH so extended,

all right, we want to note that, pay attention. And this is the next point. the probability and certainty. Nobody knows with 100% certainty, right? This is important. We're operating in a world that by definition is uncertain. The market is uncertain. Nobody knows with 100% certainty what's going to happen tomorrow,

where the market's going to be in a year from now, but you can do it based on the probabilities, right? And then it all comes down to risk and reward. again risk and reward people say oh get a lot of R&R rest and relaxation in my mind it's risk and reward so as long as you understand that component keep when you're wrong the risk small and reward big over time they'll do very well or at least fingers crossed hopefully we will up next we've got a lot more to cover i'm adam sarhan this is the one and only investors edge it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy john underwear is designed for a

perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafed thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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imagine, you're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or miss any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your leisure as many times as you want, all for free on any device 24-7, all available on GaryK.com. If you want to join Gary's premium membership, I recommend people do that. I read it. It's great.

It's available at Convictionleaders.com. Now, that being said, a few things. We left off with risk and reward. Very, very important concepts, fundamental concepts. This whole show I'm talking about, oh, there's only three things markets can do. Go up down or sideways, or any investment for that matter. And I was interviewing somebody, he gave me a great line once. He's like, we're not buying stocks.

You're buying risk and you're buying reward. You're buying risk and selling risk. That's all it is. You're buying risk and the hopes for the reward. And I thought that was very, very interesting. So, Ben Franklin, next big life lesson that can be applied to, I'm all about timeless life lessons, as you can tell. Every once in a while I'll talk about specific stocks, but the brief times I'm on the show here, I really try to go and go as wide as I can help as many people as it possibly can and share some life lessons and timeless lessons with them because these lessons have changed my life. have fundamentally

changed my life. I was going to say fundamentally technically and psychologically changed my life, but I don't think that's a funny joke so I'll just leave it

as fundamentally changed my life. So, Ben Franklin's got a great line. Okay, he's on a $100 bill. We all know Ben Franklin, founding father,

just next level, way ahead of his time, genius. Okay, great. He goes, basically, you either prepare to win

or you don't. you prepare to lose. He goes, failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Failing to prepare. So if you don't prepare, what you're doing is you're preparing to fail. And it took me a few times to hear that. I heard it, but I didn't understand it until it came to investing in trading in stocks. I said, all right, how do I do this?

At first I was staring at the market and I was making emotional decisions. The whole point in my books, how people make rational, not emotional decisions, especially with their money, and making every mistake you can possibly think of, overtrading, not having a plan. I was not preparing. I was always playing catch-up. This stock would break out. It would be extended. I'd have FOMO.

I'd chase it. I'd buy it. I'd get stopped down on a normal pullback. And then it would add insult to injury, it would take off and go without me. And then the next thing happened again and again, and again. For years until I said, okay, I've got a smart. up here. And then thankfully I did. And then over time, I said, okay, I read a lot of books. And one of them, which Gary has mentioned, and actually I heard it on this radio show. It's unbelievable.

20 years ago was Nicholas Darvis, how I made $2 million in the market. And thank you, Gary. And by the way, everybody who's listening, please go on the podcast platform, follow the show, like it, subscribe, leave a nice review. It goes a long way, and it helps Gary. So, and it takes two seconds. Next, on any platform you're listening on Spotify, on Apple Podcasts, wherever you're listening on, just like it, subscribe it, follow it, anything you want to leave a nice review. That's great. And thank you for that. So, Nicholas Darvis was a ballroom dancer back decades ago, 50s, 60s, you know, time frame. And there was no internet. There were no cell phones. He'd have a telics or a fax machine. It was even before the fax. And the broker would send

him Barron's and a bunch of stock charts about what happened in the week. He was a ballroom dancer, but he was in Asia on the other side of the world. He'd be awake. The markets are sleeping, you know, closed and vice markets are open. He's sleeping. He can't call his broker and say, buy this, sell then. He had to tell X or FedEx or whatever he was doing. There was no Fed. I don't think there was FedEx back then, but he had to literally send his broker orders in advance telling the broker when to get in, when to get out, basically putting stop orders in today's parlance. But he couldn't even, he was flying blind. He couldn't even see what was happening until his broker got back to him. I think it was like a few days later, a week later, daily, whatever he was doing.

It wasn't real time, to my point. And then they would adjust and he keeps sending him the orders. By the way, he would make his decisions when the markets are closed. And when I read that book, I was like, oh my lord, that was like the penny dropped, whatever, the aha, the moment, the light bulb went off. I said, wow, I can do that too because that allows me to plan ahead. And I started doing that. And then I developed a weekly process where I realized, oh, wow, that works well for me. And in my book, I talk about there's an infinite number of ways that people can make money in the market. Your job is to find one that works for you. So I always give the example of a personal trainer. I went to go see a personal trainer a few months ago. And actually maybe a year ago at

this point. And this young kid, he's like, I'm going to make you work out so hard at him. You're going to throw up. I said, no, you're not. And I walked down and left. It's just not for me. Now, maybe a 20-year-old kid who's got, you know, super different goals, let's just put it that way and I'll leave it there, wants to go do that. And I'm sure there's nothing wrong with this kid's program. If he does go and I go through it and I throw up a few times, I'll come out stronger on the other side of that, sure. But I know myself, I'm not going to do that, period. So I'm not even going to enter the trade. My mind's every decision is a trade because there's no, I'm not going to follow through. I'm not going to, it's not going to work for me.

Somebody who's a Warren Buffett kind of buy and hold investor and never sells it and so and so forth, I can't, that's not for me either because risk, what am I going to do? Buy something like go down 50, 60, 70, 80 percent and say, oh, yeah, now it's undervalue. I just, there's no exit strategy for that I understand in that kind of world. So, okay, that doesn't work for me either. So find something that works for you. That's the beauty of the business, the beauty of life. There is no one plus one equals two magic.

formula for people to be quote unquote successful. It's find your bliss, find your happiness, find your joy. Find an approach in the market that works for you. And what I recommend people do is to create a plan. And I've got a whole coaching service where I help people and, you know, all that fun stuff. But really create a plan because then you do what Ben Franklin taught us to do way back when. Is you're preparing and you do what Darvice did way back when, 50 years ago. that of 200 years ago. But again, you're doing the work before the market opens.

And you're outlining a plan that allows you to win and that incorporates risk. And it allows you to find leaders, find breakouts, find setups, find stocks that are getting ready to break out that haven't broke out yet. Those are the setups. And say, okay, if this stock, I like it a lot, it's got good fundamentals, it's got good technicals, the patterns tight, drying up, looks good on a weekly chart, whatever the case may be, daily chart, whatever works for you. You like the earnings, you like the yield, you like the growth, whatever story works for you. But you like it.

You want to buy it. All right, let's say it's trading between $195 for six months. Resistance would be $100 that give like a ceiling in a room and the floor would be $95 in that example. And all of a sudden one day blasts off above $100 on very heavy volume, two times normal volume. Well, who's buying? It's not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob like Gary said.

which I love, it's the big institutions. And that's what you want to see. In order for that stock to go to 200 or 300 or 500, it has to get above 100 first. And that folks is the concept of a breakout. And why breakouts are so powerful? That's what Darvice did. He had these Darvis boxes, which are flat bases or rectangle bases, where basically he would just draw a line and say, oh, this stock's trading between 95 and 100. If it gets above, or whatever it is, 190, whatever, 55 and 60, whatever the numbers are. But you can just see patterns. and say, okay, if it gets above 100, I'm going to buy it. And if it goes down to 95, I'm going to sell it.

And that's a 5% risk from entry to exit, not of your portfolio, notice. It's 5% from entry to exit. So how much of your portfolio do you lose when you're wrong? It depends on how you sized your position. Is it a 10% position? Is it a 20% position? Are you going all in? Which I don't ever recommend people do.

but you know whatever you need to do for you it all depends on the sizing but the impact on your portfolio is super super super important i can't emphasize that enough so there's one thing which is a level of risk from your entry to your exit but then the second level of risk which is the really important thing is what happens to your portfolio if you're stopped out and you're wrong that is so important. When I first started, I said, all right, I like the concept of sell 7 or 8% below your entry, and that's it. So I put entire account in there, and I lose 7% of it on one trade, or 8%. I did that three times. I was down 20%. I said, oh, my Lord, this can't continue. But I didn't realize it's not a good idea to put all your money into one stock or whatever the case was, and then

lose 7% or 8% of your entire account on one idea. Now, like, oh my goodness, I mean, maximum the 1% half of a percent or 20 basis points or 70 basis points somewhere in that range maximum 1%. So at least that's what works for me, but everyone's free to do whatever works for that. So hope that helps. Up next, we've taught a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million

pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds

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Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! And welcome once again. To Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan. In for Gary Kay, who's out today. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryKK.com.

Pause, rewind, fast forward, listen live or archive, or round 24-7, anytime you want. All right. Covered a lot of ground today. I love these timeless lessons. It's what drives me, propels me. So we left all talking about creating a plan before the market opens every week. Why? because it's very helpful to help you create some structure.

So think about this. There's two people. One person has a discipline, structure. Let's say they're trying to become a better tennis player or a golfer. They hit the ball. They show up in the morning. They go do their practice. They work out.

They eat well. They have a plan. They have a coach. They work really hard at it. They're focused at it. and they do it six out of seven days a week. The other person dabbles. No real plan.

Wishy-washy shows up on Monday, doesn't show up again for six months, puts the racket down, buys all the gear, by the way, at the beginning gets really excited, buys all the gear, and that puts it down, collects dust in his garage or her garage, and that's it. Who's going to come out better in six to 12 months? the person with the plan and has structure or the person without a plan with the plan

same thing in the market it's amazing to me the market the way this works because just about anybody can enter all you need is not even 100 bucks these days they do accounts for free I think but my day was 100 bucks 200 bucks 500 bucks something like that

you open up a brokerage account online on an app now they do it take a picture you fill out some forms, your license, drivers, license, whatever they're doing. Bum-a-bump, do some paperwork, you're done, you get an account, you can start training stocks. Period. Like that simple. Become a doctor, you need eight years of school or more. Come a lawyer, you're going to go to undergrad, then you're going to go to law school.

Chiropractor, same thing. Dentist, same thing. Stock trader or investor, hey, you got some money? Want to dance? So the barrier to entry is, even to open up a store. store. You want to open up a dry cleaner. Sell men's suits. You want to open up a messenger service. You want to open up, I don't know, the delivery company or whatever.

It doesn't matter. Fishing companies teach people, you know, sell fishing bait, worms. It literally doesn't matter. You need to have some element of conceptual knowledge or money to pay for the rent, to buy the supplies, buy the inventory, so on and so forth. something more than 100 bucks. Most cases, for most businesses, not all businesses, but for most of the time. You know, you're going to sign a lease. You're going to get a property. You're going to get some.

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Okay, great. In trading, investing, you open up $100 and bam, you're a stock trader. And then people, they wonder why they're not successful. But do the work. Do you want to do the work? There's going to be work here to get involved to be successful, to be very successful. To beat the market.

Everyone says, I want to beat the market. I want to beat the market. Great. So does everybody else. But it's a very competitive arena. You're competing again. You don't see your competition, but you're competing against some of the smartest,

wealthiest, most resourceful people in the world. And the beauty here is that you can win. And so can I. It's based on our intellect, not some other outside external factor. Like basketball, there's no way I can play against Michael Jordan and win. I'm short.

On a good day, I'm 5'6. Jordan, I don't know, 6, 5, Shaquille O'Neal, 7 feet, I have no idea. I'm physically no way I can play against these guys and win in basketball. In the market, oh, ho, ho, ho, ho. It's a level playing field. By the way, that's one of the reasons attracted to me

to the market way back when in the 90s. I said, oh, hold on a second here. Wait a minute, there's no physical requirements here. I don't need to have a million dollars or $100 million to do it or even $100,000 to do it. I had no money when I got started. So I was like, oh, no. Real estate was either, I looked at the round of it.

Like, where do the wealthiest people put their money? In stocks or in real estate. So I said, okay, great. Real estate, I needed money to buy real estate. I didn't have any money. So, okay, go to stocks. And that's literally what I had the decision making process went. And then I had some success, but then I lost, had a lot of failures, lost it all.

And then some. And then came back and then boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. In my first week of trading, quote unquote, my friend was trading for me, grew up together. And he was a broker. And I wasn't. I was nothing to do with anything. And the account pretty much doubled the first day, more or less, was up 80%. And then the next day lost all the profits.

Day three, which was Wednesday, account open on Monday. Day three, Wednesday, the account's bankrupt. Zero. They put more money in. I didn't have any more money. I didn't have any more money. Good. Thursday, the account doubles.

And then Friday, oh, yeah, we're bankrupt again. It's literally the first week of, quote, unquote, real trading I did. I bought some stocks earlier and stuff, but, you know, where I put real money into it. I'm real meaning real to me, and it was all relative at the time. It was all my money. At the end of that week, I'm like, whoa, I'm hooked. I've got to figure this out. I just lost.

I'm not just like I lost. I got smashed. And now I'm in debt? Holy moly. I got to figure this out. So I knew I didn't know. I had one skill. I had one job, not even skilled.

I had to learn. All I did in my life until today, that's why I get at least timeless lesson. It's just, I know I don't know. Like Arrowsdell said way back when in Socrates, they had a great line. You know, you don't know. Now you can learn. Okay. Now I've got to learn.

So I started reading. And that was it. I just started reading and then doing and applying and reading and applying more mistakes. And more mistakes. I fired my broker. We're still friends until today. I just spoke to him earlier today, actually. And great guy.

But I, quote unquote, had to, I decided to figure, I took control, took responsibility. And decided I'm going to figure this out on my own. came up with a plan, structure, made every mistake under the sun, learned from those mistakes, post analysis, study my mistakes. And then I had some level of success, a lot of success, and said, okay, great. I've got to a certain point where, thank you, Lord, I'm able to help other people and share my thoughts about the market and so on and so forth. And that's it.

And that's what I do every day. And people like it, great. They don't like it, great. I'm happy to share what I can, help other people because I know how it feels on a visceral level not to know and to want to know, want to figure it out. Structure. However, you want to create structure, folks, strongly recommended. And if you want to email me your stories, feel free.

Info at find leadingstocks.com. That when you have structure on how you can get ahead, how you can get an edge, how you can plan for what's coming. Now, will you be able to catch every leading stock? No. I had somebody email me from Tuesday's show, said, Adam, that was really helpful. You're very welcome. You can't catch all the stocks in the market. And that's okay. Even if you have a plan, you're still going to miss some stocks. But that's okay. Because over a long enough period of time, hopefully you'll catch a few really good winners. And they'll more than make up for the small losers that you have. And if you manage risk properly, you'll do very well over the long term. And that's all the time we have for today. Thank you, everybody, for listening.

Gary Lee back. This is the one and only Investors Edge. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.