Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - EXTREME SENTIMENT WEEK IN REVIEW
Episode Date: October 6, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It's what?
October 6, 2020.
And it's Friday.
Yay.
First off, I must thank my wonderful wife.
You know how men every now and then will say, oh, what a wonderful wife I have, or a wife will say what a wonderful husband I have?
I have to start out saying, my wife is magnificent.
In case you did not know, my father is going to be 92 on October 20th.
He shares the birthday with Mickey Mantle.
What do you do?
And over the, man's a war hero.
The man was a great athlete.
And in the last year, going from 91 to 92,
finally, you see a downtrend.
For lack of a better word, I don't want to use a word I use in stocks.
And he's lost muscle mass.
He's still sharp as can be, knows everything.
that's going on, writes his checks and does his bills and all that. But the health part,
you can just tell and, you know, walking a little whatever, fall down a couple times.
And this last fall down, he's had like eight staples in his head. I mean, he's like
Mick Foley getting staples in his head during a wrestling match. So I've been back and forth to New York.
she's gone back and forth with me
and you're just doing the best you can for him
and he was in the hospital
and then moved to rehab so I was up there for 10 days
and then we came back
moved to rehab with thinking everything all well and good
and then realize that
somebody else needed to be up there not just for him
but from my mom also who's 90
who's like the rock of Gibraltar
my wife in a nanosecond
has been up there all week
driving the bus
and helping out
just absolute
big time
big time
knowing that I have things I've got to do
here in Florida
and of course
I'm going to be running back there
as I have told you
I can easily move my whole office
I even sent a picture when I was in Dubai
I put out a picture
on Twitter where I actually
have four screens
sitting in front of me
and they're easy to move
and they're four separate laptops
I keep being told you don't need four separate ones
I just like having four separate ones
I'm insane. So my wife has made my life easier this week in just amazing ways. And I'm going to be
heading back up there real soon. So I just had to start with that. And I've received a lot of
emails from a lot of you have experienced the same thing as your parents, you know, get older.
And it is, you can, I can just tell that I don't try to address it with my father.
the frustration of here's this guy where he was almost a professional baseball player who just gave up the keys to his car a year and a half ago that there's certain things he cannot do right now without a walker and certain help and i can just see the frustration i can just see the frustration that he has uh god bless him
you know, that's the story.
So we start out with my wife.
And now we segue.
So yesterday, we started out the show saying we never want to get too over the top on the show.
Never want to get too technical.
We said to you that we were told many years ago when we started out on Fox,
never mentioned the dollar because it'll bore a hell out of people and people are smart,
but a lot of things just a little bit above realm. But we came at you with a couple of things we
were seeing that don't happen very often. And it all had to do with sentiment in the markets.
We're talking markets straight out of the get-go here. Of course, after we talked to.
my wife. And when sentiment that we follow, there are certain indicators we follow that work best for
us. Others have different sentiment indicators. When they go to extremes, those indicators,
it's usually something that for me is a wake-up call. It means that the masses have gone all the
way to one side. That's what it simply means. And typically, when everybody is barish and sold out,
there's nothing left to sell, and you can potentially get a market to turn up. The same with the
upside. When the masses of all bullish, and we read that extreme, it means they're all bought in,
there's nobody left to buy. The market's already had a big,
move up, and typically, typically, it means the market's ready to drop.
Now, these sentiment indicators, listen carefully, and not what we call pinpoint indicators,
meaning, oh, it shows up, and boom, the market turns.
But it just so happened, my good buddy, Gil Morales, one of the most brilliant minds on Wall Street,
and he's been on the show, and we're going to have him on again, who was the portfolio manager
O'Neill set records beyond records in returns, posted, not to me, but posted on Twitter or
X, that one of the things we follow hit an extreme number. So after we've had this drop in
the market, and as I have stated to you, the average stock is 10 times worse than the indices
because of the big capness of the market.
We have highlighted for you just absolute drubbings in so many things.
By the way, including today, and we'll get into it in a second,
more stocks got blasted today on a strong day.
So, very simply, what we explained to, again, we didn't want to go into the weeds too much
is there is an options market.
There's things called calls and puts.
When you buy a call, you're betting on the upside at a certain price at a certain time.
You are paying a premium for that time and for whatever price.
And you can buy in the money or out of the money.
And I don't, again, go read up options.
And then there's the puts.
You're betting on things going down at a certain price at a certain price.
certain time and it just so happens after all this drubbing that the market has had after all this
drubbing the market has had it took to just yesterday for the put buying to go to those extreme
numbers that sometimes oftentimes mark a turn in the market they were buying the hell
a puts on the market. And that's after a drop. So Gil posts it. I'm like, okay, and I write it
down, and I report it to you. And all I simply stated to you was this. The technical condition
of market sucks. But things are very oversold, meaning, I mean, something that dropped 10 bucks
can rally up two or three. Does not really change the direction.
but something can start from it.
And that was yesterday.
Simple as that.
The other thing we had stated was all of a sudden journalists are reporting what we've been telling you for months.
And often that turns the tide.
What have they reported now?
And this is one of our indicators.
Oh, the bond market's been trashed in interest rates of skyrocketed.
Duh.
One person wrote up.
Oh, now the deficits matter.
Gee, my goodness gracious.
So this morning, we get a jobs number.
And it was supposedly better than expected,
but if you go in depth into it,
it's still good that we're 3.something percent,
but some of it was government, too much government.
That's taxpayer dollars.
Some of it was part-time, whatever.
Let's say it was terrific.
Okay?
Well, initially, bonds sold off, interest rates skyrocketed again on the morning, and the market was trashed.
Up next, we'll tell you how it finished.
I'm Gary.
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called bomb it doesn't get better than this okay so with all that said about the sentiment and remember
what we tell you about sentiment it's secondary indicators the primary is always going to be
price and pattern which we are very good at reading and obviously very good reading on sentiments so
what happens this morning the tao at the open or
right at the open. Yeah, just about at the open. Let me make sure I got this right before I
opened my mouth. Now that's yesterday. Duh. There you go. Now we're on 10-6. So the Dow
opens and tanks. We hit 32-846 at around 1025. 32-846. That would be about 274-6. That would be about
points. We were down on the open. We finished up 288. The market moved up 500-something points.
And in fact, at one time today, we were 33-557. We were up another one. We were up 438.
We were almost up 700 from the lows. The NASDAQ, of course, did the same.
same to a certain extent. The NASDAQ wasn't so bad in the morning. The NASDAQ at the low hit
130-09-was down 120, finished up 211, was up 13-4-72, was up 13-4-72. So that pulled back a little bit also,
but a very strong day was to be had.
And I'm just thinking to myself, thank you, Gil,
because this will go down in the file manager
that maybe just maybe a decent low, maybe,
was put in the day after the put calls spiked,
and sentiment went what we call
to extremes.
So you should remember that going forward.
What does it mean for Monday?
Beats the heck out of me,
which is trying to get day-to-day right.
But today could be a start.
That's all.
The market had held a certain level
over the last two and a half weeks.
You can draw a line underneath.
Today it moved off
of that little whatever it was trying to do,
and let's hope it sticks.
To be clear, though,
when we tell you so many stocks are in bad shape,
one day does the turn them into good shape,
but what it really does do
is already starts to isolate.
Where's the strength?
And we already knew where the strength was before today.
It was narrow as all heck.
It's things like Facebook,
that hasn't budged while the market's been trashed.
Google holds the 50-day moving average.
A select group, and what I mean a select group of narrow names,
a select group of narrow names with the strength,
what do you think that select group of narrow names did the first day up like we had today?
Well, they led up with a few actually breaking into new high ground.
Yeah, a few. Now, is this the start of something good? We hope so. We've been told that very often October will stop corrections. We're all good with that. What we will tell you is this. We love what we saw today. We love that it was the higher beta names. It was software, software types, security enterprise software and the like. It was not so.
So much, well, the big caps moved, but we like the fact that the best looking moved.
And we'll see what next week brings.
The socks today was up 68.
That was down early.
Could have been better.
It was up 84.
3491, right?
16.
Yeah, 84.
But let's hope this is a start.
Leadership is already starting to show itself.
but you're going to need the market to cooperate.
What do we mean by market cooperating?
Stop getting trashed.
That's what we mean.
I've always said, just give me a market that does nothing.
I don't even need a strong market.
Just give me a market that does nothing.
And leadership will show up.
Of course, though, give me a strong market
and leadership can really get going.
The big story today, just letting you know,
as you do your scans, just letting you know,
software.
When you have a chance, go look at something called the IGV.
It's technology software index.
That's a good looking move today, and we'll see if it sticks.
and then you dive deep into software names
and see if any are already breaking out to new highs
and see what is showing up.
But they were really in there on the software.
By the way, I didn't see any news to move them.
But there were some that were already strong, ready to go,
and that was the story today.
Even Microsoft was up nine bucks today,
and that's pretty much been dead money for quite a while.
So hopefully, we're just going to use these words.
Hopefully it's the start of a fourth quarter of goodness.
Because we already have a clear idea of where the strength is.
Now, most everything else bounced today.
And I'm going to go through that big time.
But you can also tell what's the pretenders.
and it's a real lot of areas, broad-based.
So we're going to stick to the narrow, and if anything else shows up, terrific.
Costco was down 25 today early on their numbers, finished down 12 on a good day.
Chipotle was down 39.
Domino's Pizza was down 21, breaking down.
So they were still hitting the restaurant stocks big time today.
You know what that story is?
about these new drugs
and people not wanting,
I don't know, I'm reading stories about new drugs
and OZempic and all this other crap
and maybe people are changing,
I don't know, who the hell knows?
Weakness being attributed to recent headlines
about health concerns for weight loss drug
Wagovi is a potential contributing factor,
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Who knows?
Anyway, there's still.
plenty of areas that are just
I don't know what's going on with the restaurants
McDonald's and the Dow was down another four today
Wing Stopped down nine
Yum brands you name it
we're going to stay away from restaurants up next
more in the markets
this is the one only investors edge
guys it's no use putting it off
the best time for an underwear refresh is now
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit
that stays put all day
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than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
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yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking.
Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a
Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you
talk to him. So, in software, a lot of three to five percent movers,
today. When you have a chance, go look at the very short and small new yearly high list.
Go do that. That's where the only way you can find big gainers is if they show up on the new
yearly high list. They have to. So maybe this is a start, not going any further than that.
We're just loving the fact that maybe just maybe one of our main indicators on center.
click the heels today.
Other news.
Exxon looks like they are going to buy
Pioneer Natural Resources
PXD. They are looking to go further
into the shale and the Permian
Basin, which is in West Texas, New Mexico
that has billions of barrels
underneath to get at.
so Pioneer Natural was up 22 bucks today.
Yippie, yay, yay.
I got to figure out what happened with the restaurant stocks and all that other crap.
What else they're killing?
They're just beating the hell out of Pepsi and Coke and Kellogg's
and Post and smuckers and the beer stocks.
It's like a raid on anything good to eat.
They even got, I don't know why, but Church and Dwight,
which is just, what is that?
Like baking soda and toothpaste?
That breaks down today.
And as you know recently, they just beat the crap out of utilities.
They've been beaten the crap out of financials.
By the way, on a day where the Dow was almost up 300,
Bank America was up a penny.
You think we want to own that bad boy?
And just so you know, that's how we measure things.
things pretty easily. What ain't moving today? But I got to figure out this restaurant thing.
They're just kicking them in the teeth. Now, I do know in California the maniacs there.
Don't listen to business. Even though businesses said to them, hey, if you keep raising minimum wage
for teenagers and startup people at the fast food places, we're going to get kiosks and robots
California raised minimum wage to 20 bucks.
I don't know if maybe that has something to do with it.
I don't know.
It's an insane asylum in California.
I really don't use the word communist.
I use the word Marxist, but communist is the...
And we're using the economic part of it is the sharing of everything.
California's there.
At least they're going there.
It's nuts.
You ever see what the taxes?
By the way, between taxes, if you're too wealthy,
have you seen what the price of gas is in California?
I mean, they just love castrating their consumer.
They're so lucky, California is so beautiful.
I lived a little bit, not for long,
in a place called Rancho Bernardo,
north of San Diego, south of Escondido, if I do remember.
something like that. Anyway, I loved it there. And I love visiting. I won't visit San Fran
anymore. But man, Pebble Beach and Carmel and Monterey, San Diego, LaHoya. It's so many beautiful
places and these people run in the joint. Do you know, people won't even go out at night in
Oakland these days. And you know who runs the district in San Fran? Pelosi, do you think she's
ever asked about the district in San Fran? Never. Why would journalists do that? Hey, Pelosi, do you hear
about these other department stores that just left San Fran? How about the drug stores? How about the
retail stores? They're running away. What happened? No, don't want to piss off Nancy.
Anyway, that's what's going on there. So back on the market, that be the store.
Now, the jobs report, as I have stated, we have no bias at all.
We want everybody to have a job.
We love everybody to have the job of their dreams.
We have come out recently and said we think we're on the ledge,
and we hope we do not fall off the ledge.
Because if we lose the job market with so much debt and deficits,
with interest rates so much higher, credit card interest rates so much higher? Who knows? Who knows?
But it was a good number with a but. With a but. Always look at what type of jobs. What type of jobs? It's all. What type of jobs? Are they good or are they not good? Are they part-time?
what may be.
One third were government jobs, basically, which does not thrill.
One third was leisure and hospitality, which is just fine and dandy, but they pay less than other things.
One third health care, which is like nurses and stuff like that.
I'd like to see a little better makeup of that.
But we'll take it.
We'll take anything.
A person who loses a job goes on unemployment and then goes on the dole.
And remember how somebody feels about not having a job.
That ain't any fun.
So let's hope it sticks.
I'm not so sure.
But good day.
And we are certainly thrilled with the action today.
I know they're going to call it what is known as a follow-through day.
it looks like
that's confirmed
NASDAQ volume bigger than yesterday
but you need stocks
S&P bigger volume than yesterday also
and if you don't know what a follow-through day is
go look it up
but just remember
you need stocks
and there are a few
so we're ready to roll
we'll just need the market to continue to cooperate
simple as that
in other news
Hey, Joe Biden was out today, patting himself on the back for Bidenomics.
Just remember, we have one stance.
We don't give a crap what he says.
The only thing we care about is this man on purpose.
Has the government spending $6.5 trillion this year,
a 50% increase from just 2019 the year before COVID?
And a lot of it is insane.
$380 billion being handed to one man, a Democratic hat named,
John Podesta had a handout for climate.
And it's going to go to friends, families, compatriots, donors,
who are going to create startup crap companies to take in grants.
You know what a grant is.
The government gives you money.
You never have to pay it back.
And who's going to lose?
We are.
That's only $380 billion, ladies and gentlemen.
I've been asked a lot about Ukraine.
Oh, I believe in fighting for democracy.
But you know what else I want.
I want an accounting, which we are not going to get.
We should have an accounting of where every dime is going when we sent to Ukraine.
We sent them $120 billion.
So imagine if we didn't have to send $120 billion.
And instead airmarked $120 billion for kids in need.
Imagine if you did that.
So we're hoping we get an accounting from this control freak in chief who is hamstringing us and the future.
But of course he's had help.
He had help from Trump in a huge way.
Who took the championship belt away from Obama?
Who helped?
Who took the championship belt away from Bush?
These four have just mutilated the future.
future with the massive debt and deficits. It started up in the late 90s, but I got to hand it
to Clinton. It wasn't that bad. But then all hell broke loose. Up next, what else we got for you?
I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy
John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. They're zero-shape
thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal
quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men
out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off
your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium
benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer
to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as,
podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to
confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes
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swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show,
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someday pay for, well,
more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself
for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In The Wester's Edge.
With Gary Culper.
Jada.
Thanks for being here.
As, you know, I was just mentioning the debt and deficits.
I just want to let you know in the last four months, our debt's gone up $2 trillion.
That was the outcome.
And by the way, we're not making this up.
That was the outcome of the debt deal.
Do you know what they called the debt deal?
The Fiscal Responsibility Act.
And they want to know why we think they suck.
they want to know why everybody is so pissed off.
They want to know why we think they're all a bunch of con artists.
That they have the grapefruits to call a bill,
the Fiscal Responsibility Act,
and $2 trillion more debt in four months later.
They're expecting us to get on bended knee and thank them.
Biden sat there today saying, I don't understand why. I'll give you why. These people are so lucky that I,
personally, as not front and center in front of this man questioning him. He'd probably throw something at me within a minute.
imagine
and you had the
Treasury Secretary out
applauding the economy
this misgrant
that doesn't have a clue
about anything
that has never had a job
in the real world
$2 trillion
added to our debt in four months
and they call it the Fiscal
Responsibility Act
the venom I have for these people that you should have,
I don't care what side of the aisle you are on.
The ire is getting raised more and more.
So peoed at these people, and they do it in plain sight.
And they look at you.
I used to complain about Trump.
Now he's not president now.
I still complain about him.
I would always say Trump can stand in front of a camera and it's raining on him and he says it's sunny out and he says it with a straight face.
I got news for you.
This administration has taken away the championship belt online 10 times over from Trump and that is one big gigantic high bar to get over.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act, they named it that act.
That's what they named it.
$2 trillion.
Just so you know, in four months,
that was more than federal spending than the year 2000.
They are shooting a big, gigantic finger at us,
laugh in there, you know what's off.
And there's nobody to save us.
There's nobody to save us.
What?
If you think Trump wins, he's all of a sudden going to slow it down.
No. They figured out. Hey, GDP has government in it, so let's supersize government. Tough. You're going to get no help from him. So that happened today. And I have to tell you, I started watching Biden's little, hey, look at me and how good I am. It took me 30 seconds before I had to shut it off. 30 seconds. What else in the news? Well,
Here's a good one.
Motorists will soon be able to claim the 7,500 electric vehicle tax credit up front when they buy an electric car rather than wait for the tax return to come off your tax return.
Ain't that great?
What are they trying to do?
These clowns are doing everything possible using the taxpayer to get you going electric.
Even though your tires cost more, the repairs cost more, I can go on and on what costs more with electric vehicles.
But just letting you know all you rich people that want to buy expensive electric vehicles, you're going to get $7,500 now up front from the price of the car.
Right up front, just letting you know.
Take care of the wealthy.
The Marxist party, who hates the wealthy, going to take care of the wealthy.
going to take care of the wealthy.
All to move electric vehicles, which by the way,
ain't moving. The lots
have a lot of electric vehicles on them because
people don't want them. That's all.
And you know what's going to hit the fan in a couple of years?
The fact that Ford and GM and all
them are losing bazillions of dollars because nobody wants
to buy them. Oh, and then we'll bail them out with our tax dollars.
ladies and gentlemen, I give to you, our government, abusing you and I.
And the only reason why they get away with it, because the money doesn't physically come out of our checkbooks, our bank accounts.
Biden just forgave another $9 billion, at least trying to.
Imagine if you went to your bank account and $200 was deducted and it said,
for student loan forgiveness, not your student loan, somebody else.
think you'd be able to get away with it then? Hell no. But they know it's somewhat invisible.
You don't see it. You're going about your day, doing your thing, doing your fantasy football league for
the weekend, and not paying that much attention. They've created the greatest Ponzi scheme, the greatest
con in history, and it's up to 33 point something trillion. It's going to be, it'll be 100 trillion one day.
Where does it blow up?
Beats the hell out of me.
But it's gone to.
And on that note,
have a great weekend.
Drive carefully.
When you get home, do like I do,
make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
Take care of your parents.
Monday will be on with Charles Payne,
Fox Business Network,
2 p.m. hour.
Have a great one, everybody.
Stay well, be well.
And if I win the mega millions or the Powerball this weekend, you will never hear from me again.
Peace out all. Take care. Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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