Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Fed day blah blah blah! [05.07.2025]

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday, May 7, 2025. Hope you're having a good day. I'm having a good day. The fact I'm here, I'm having. a good day. And as always, we're here to talk seriously, serious talk about everything that affects you. We will do the markets. We'll do the economy, your job, your industry, taxes, debt and deficits.

We don't use the word tariff anymore, so we say taxes. And just, for lack of a better word, exhausted I'll explain the minute but first if you do not get this radio show and your city we'll post it at gary k.com we'll also post it on our Twitter feed which is now X and if you don't follow us on next you should if you'd like to email us

just be nice got that and by the way this weekend we will be working on setting up our new big camera mic YouTube, charts, all-encompassing radio show slash podcast for you to also see.

We'll let you know exactly the date. But before we get going, accountability time, we're going to do this every day at the beginning of the show because I am a determined young man. As I have told you, for a long while, I had these back spasms. They've been gone for a while. but I've been taking it slowly but surely, but I'm really at it now. Today already did seven sets of chest and buys. That's biceps. Did 100 sit-ups, three rounds of boxing, five rounds of jumping jacks,

basketball jumps, and knee-ups. I call them knee-ups. And tonight I'll be doing the... inclined trainer up to 10,000 because boy, oh boy, we are a determined bunch and we're going to make sure we tell you that every day. Ladies and gentlemen, I said the word exhausted. So, first off, a couple of things. We have really handled the last few months pretty well. For the most part, We were out of the bearish market and the crash. And we got back in a little bit, not a lot, but as we told you, the number one start Netflix, and it remains that way.

And now Spotify, that was the other one that's breaking out today. So we're really happy about the handling. But I must tell you, it's getting exhausting, having to deal with the constant. changes and the yapping from our good president. Now, I'm going to first compliment him because today he did something that was very good move. He is rescinding global semiconductor chip restrictions that Biden put on three tears. We're happy about that. We're less than three with, this is a change of his stance from just weeks ago. And we always worry with him, is he going to change his stance on this again?

And we say that because the latest news was the Treasury Secretary is meeting with some Chinese trade representatives and our trade representative. His last name, I believe, is Greer. and the Treasury Secretary said, no, we're not there to get to a deal yet. That's going to take a while. But we are there in meeting to come down off the mountain. He used the words de-escalation. Good move.

We're happy about that. De-escalate. Terrific. Fabulous. Wonderful. The president today undercuts him. I'm not moving on the 145% Chinese tariffs. It's exhausting. It really is exhausting. And I really worry he just says things off the top of his head and just changes the next day. It's exhausting. And I'm thinking to myself, you know, I don't have a business that imports a ton of stuff. I'm just imagining all these companies that do have these imports. They must be

on Xanax. I want this guy to be so damn successful. I just love what he did on the border. Love saving lives. If he never does another good thing, the President Trump, that is magnificent. that piece of crap Joe Biden, and I'd say that to his face, that opened up the border on person risking our security. And his own head of Homeland Security said, we don't know if any terrorists got in here or not. And then they would fly people in the middle of the night to different cities and just put him there. Joe Biden should have been impeached just for that. So President Trump on that,

I love it. But everything else is just becoming exhausting. Exhausting. I can't trust if what he just said today on the semiconductors changes tomorrow. And it came out, by the way, 10 minutes to go in the market. and boom, NASDAQ up 150 points before you can blink. But there'll be down 150 points tomorrow if, well, no, you get my point? Exhausting. Absolutely exhausting. We wish him well. We actually wish we were his.

What's the main title? It's the woman Susan Wiles. that should be me Chief of staff that should be me if he ever listened to me we wouldn't be in this whole tax thing

notice I didn't say the word amongst other things I digress we're rooting for him we really are Fed Day today and I have to tell you we have been Joe Biden's

excuse me, Jay Powell's biggest critic. I had Biden on my mind. God, I can't stand that guy. I've got to applaud Jay Powell for doing nothing. In the face of the president,

jawboning him to lower rates, which we think is a mistake. And by doing nothing, the 10-year yield went down again today, which matters 10 times as much. 4.275. I must tell you there's a buddy of mine, a friend, who I think is one of the most brilliant people on the Fed that disagrees with me. And the only reason I know it because I saw her on TV today, Danielle DiMartino Booth.

She thinks that he should cut rates three or four times. So I could be wrong because she is brilliant. Anyway, my take, though, is less is more from the central bank. They've caused enough problems, enough problems throughout the years. Printing trillions, distortions up the wazoo, inflation. So I'm applauding him right now for doing less. and a quarter point here and a quarter point there ain't changing my life. We'll keep you up to date.

Next, Google, Alphabet, I still don't know why they change the name, was down 12 bucks today. That's a big move for a mega cap. I believe it's number five in the S&P as well as the NASDAQ 100. Up next, we'll have that news. And much more, I'm Gary. This is the one only, Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeCompert.

That's Tommyjohn.com. Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge. Lounge is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once,

and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So I didn't know this, but Google pays alphabet. Apple $20 billion a year to be exclusive on their iOS devices. Apple came out and said now they are looking at other AI options.

On top of that, Apple said that search declined in April for the first time. So Google was down 7.5% today. It was worse until the market bounced at the end of the day. In fact, it was down about 14. That's to be watched. Google has had its own way on. search. It's had his own way on search. I don't know what the exact percentages, but it's way up there. Way up there to be watched. Number five,

influence on the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 member. We're adding both classes of stock. There's G-O-O-G and G-O-O-G. That was a story today. and that certainly kept some pressure on the NASDAQ today until the end of the day when the president spoke up about the semiconductors. Now, as usual on Fed Day, the markets were just all over the freaking map. There were 400 on the down and then flat, and I could go on and on back and forth. The NASDAQ was down 200, then up, then down 200. NASDAQ was only up 48 points. Because Apple was down and Google was down, the advance declines were a little better.

The Dow was up 284. S&P up 24. NASDAQ 176. The semis finished up 75. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Of note in the Dow today, Disney, up 10. In case you don't know, Disney is still down 50%. That's a 50-0 from 2021.

No, really, 50% since 2021. So up 10 bucks today, they beat estimates. That's number one. And number two, just better all the way around. I think expectations were kind of low. on the parks, worry about the economy, but sales are up 7%. Earnings are up. They talk big about the cruises and their opening.

Abu Dhabi, Disney. It's going to be built by an Abu Dhabi company morale, but I guess Disney has the name and I don't know exactly how that's going to work, but it's Disney. They'll be making. money off of it. So that was about 60 some odd Dow points. And really just nothing really down in the Dow today. Yeah, like IBM up for. I still don't get that stock. I mean, it's hung in there. It hasn't done anything in a long while. But no sales growth, minus five earnings. What the heck

do I know? Just a better tone. And I'm going to give some technical analysis lingo to you and start by saying anything's possible. Nothing's 100%. But in our technical analysis opinion, the market sets up pretty well in what I call potentially bullish wedges and flat areas. Just let you know. Notwithstanding who knows what's next, from what we'll call, we'll call call Mr. Exhaustion. Man, oh man. How do you have your Treasury Secretary and your trade representative go to China

to de-escalate and then you, the president, his boss, their boss, come out and say, screw that. We're not touching those taxes. Welcome to my world. It's fun to be in. but we will tell you we will deal with it

we'll stay on top of it and just let you know regardless of it market's setting up in here and let's hope it's does the right thing if price breaks above the last five days we get another leg up

simple as that to what extent we don't know and if you want to know what we mean by flat areas. One of the names I was watching along the 50-day moving average was NVIDIA. Was sitting in one of these bullish wedges, flat areas, and you know

what, because of the news today, boom, jumped above it. That's what we want to see. Keep in mind, Nvidia is still down 15% from last June and still down I think 20%

from the highs in December. So has work to do. But better day. Because the president said something. And let's hope he sticks with what he says. Because it is exhausting. And I'm not putting him down. I'm just telling you like it is.

I get people that love him that know what I'm talking about. I am rooting him on. and I am one that believes he was railroad not a lot of stuff I am one of those but completely disagree with him on the January 6 crap that he did

all those pardons we are non-biased here kids so the markets today look at the segue as I said good day at the close it was wild in the last couple hours because the Fed

in fact if I get my little Oh, geez. At 2 o'clock, let me get my bearings here. 411. Drop 200, rallied 300,

dropped 200, rallied 250, drop 250, and then right into the close had that big move off of the president saying something and finished up 284. We're talking down.

Hey, up. Next, what else do we got for you? Thanks for being here. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every

purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 Courts lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

You're listening to. Talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Do you know, no, no, no. Okay. I should probably explain what a bullish wedge is. Um, I'll make it easy. Take out a pen. and just draw a vertical line. I'm saying it's vertical.

Nothing ever really goes up vertical. Better yet, I'm going to make it even better. Draw a line from 8 o'clock to 2 o'clock, west to east, from 8 o'clock to 2 o'clock. And then draw that down from 10 o'clock down to 4 o'clock, but only about a quarter of the way of the line that you did to the upside.

Bullish wedge. Simple as that. And a flat area is easy to explain. You draw that first line and then make a right turn and go flat. You don't even pull back. That's what we got a bunch of, of right now is we head into tomorrow we call that bullish wedges and flat areas we use the term bullish because that's what they usually look like before going higher

the problem is we're at the right at the mercy and in the midst of massive overhead resistance and we don't know but if that first high is taken out to the upside that's good news and we'll know in the days ahead simple as that and of course we're in the midst of earning season I got a few blowups in the aftermarket today but I got a few big ones to the upside and today you had a few things

on earnings and all these names all of them get on our watch list we love companies that gap to the upside on good things going on hold those gaps or just pull back constructively the bullish wedge and then get on their way again

and there are a few we avoid the ick the gaps to the downside and the downtrends and the like and there's been plenty of those also but right now better and i'll tell you what else i like that the market rallied into the close even though the president undercut his Treasury Secretary what should have been bearish talk of keeping 145% tariff on Chinese goods

but guess what do not forget that the president caved and exempted a crap load of important areas remember that they exempted Apple you see when Tim Cook

gives the Trump, whatever it's called a million bucks, you get exempted. Oh, there's no cause and effect there, right? Yeah, right. So better, constructive, with warts. And we are going to be watching

very closely Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan and those stocks. And hopefully they go topside moi importante

to have the banks going along for the ride gold well when the market goes up gold goes down right now pulled back but gold remained strong elevated but strong I'm not a buyer up here

and I screwed that trade up a long time ago we had the original breakouts the original and did not hold long enough. Oh, well, not an easy business. Tonight, the Knicks, game two, against Celtics, that's very important. Okay, that's our sports commentary of the day.

You got to know that my Knicks have not won an NBA champion. Just think about New York. They have not won an NBA championship since when? The 70s? that should be illegal. And I'll never forgive John Stocks for going for 0 for 17 and kept shooting against Houston in that series years ago. But that's for another day. There is a lot of talk out there on the economy and stuff.

I'm just letting you know the economy's okay. Softer, but okay. There is no chance of a deep recession or a big contraction. until I see the markets really croak and not just on dumb tax news. Keep in mind that last crash was on the Trump tax news, which they took off very quickly. And I doubt they ever even put that on again. If they do, that'll be their undoing and, of course, unfortunately, will be the victims. So I don't think disasters ahead.

and my state for the record, there's a lot of people calling for disaster. They're out in droves. End of the world type scenarios. And yeah, I worry. 37 trillion of debt. The Republicans BSing the American public on their latest budget, which is going to add more than $5 trillion to the debt. Yeah, they're really cutting the debt, are they?

If they lose the midterms, it'll be on that. In other news, India is at war with Pakistan. Two nuclear countries, yay, unbelievable. I mean, not much is Russia-Ukraine still going on. They still won't release the hostages in Gaza. The New York Times still sucks. They were talking about a moral equivalence with Israel and stuff. Release the freaking hostages.

Gee whiz. How hard is that to figure out? We're getting past earnings season. We're going back and forth. I think earnings are okay. Nothing spectacular. But we don't really care about that. We're just going to find the ones with the best and the biggest and the best reactions.

Get them. Then close our eyes, hold our nose, and pray. which does not work. We've tried. But finish well today. We're told that typically the market will do the opposite the next day after the Fed. We don't

buy into that crap. We'll let the market decide and let me repeat again. Bullish wedges and bullish flat areas. And now the president may have got the semi-conductors

on the move. They have been very weak and very troublesome. So now the semiconductors are to be watched. Oh, and by the way, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, bullish wedge along the 50-day moving average, with a big bounce into the close because of the president. By the way, it won up 80 points because of the president. Good on him.

And by the way, in three minutes. Lastly, on him, there's too much of him. Like to see less of him. That's not a rib. There's just too much. Up next, any news of the day. Whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investors there.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. Bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour,

you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

Duh, da, da. Yesterday, all the, uh, all the, uh, drug stocks and biotechs took another crap, really got hit hard. The only one that seems to be, McKesson is pretty strong, but most everything else has just been absolute disasters. The story goes is the worry about payments going forward. There is a move of foot by this administration on pricing. we're just reading now

the President Trump more President Trump plans to connect the amount the government pays for some drugs to lower prices in foreign nations we have always heard that if you bought certain drugs in this country you would pay 80% less than what you pay here and the excuse has always been

well there's research and development and all that that may not hold sway going forward. Just letting you know. There's a reason why United Health stock has also crashed. It's going to be interesting to watch, and this is of import because this will affect where you go in the markets. The worst acting Dow stock is Merck.

A great drug company. a horrible stock. Why the markdowns? There is worried about what all these companies are going to be paid going forward. You have to remember when you have a government that is now being ruled by an administration, I'm using the word ruled, that is determined to lower costs. They are going to look out government payments. And as we have told you for a long time, there has been absolutely zero accountability on what government and where government

and how much government rights checks on everything. There's a reason why government contracting stocks have crashed also. One plus one equals two. And we're not putting any of these industries down. We're just telling you facts. We'd be careful about anything that gets a ton of their revenue from government. Simple as that.

We think going, it's already been going on. This is not the first time we have mentioned this. This is not even close to the first time. but there is definitively a move of foot. And let me tell you what I've been reading. The whiners, and just so you know, the media hates Trump, the newspaper hates Trump. If he cured cancer today, they would come up with a reason why that's bad. They're that bad.

So what they're doing now, the articles I'm reading, oh, this cut is going to take away research and development on child diseases. Those are the articles. They're coming out left and right. The articles don't mention how much money these different areas have gotten through the years and how the amount of money they have received has gone vertical throughout the years. And they failed to mention that nobody has ever held anything accountable on how and where it's being spent. Just letting you know.

There were an inspector generals that are supposed to oversee this. Well, they did not oversee USAID when they were supposed to. And we are finding craplodes of waste. in that USAID, who by the way, did good things, does good things. But of course, took advantage of no oversight. So just letting you know, I ain't owning any drug companies. I ain't owning any biotech companies. I'm not owning hospitals, HMOs, who get a lot of money.

from the government government contractors forget about it there's a whole class of industries i'm not touching one plus one equals two in the markets they've been getting hit just like today the president said something about the semis so they went the other way to the upside if anything changes there we'll let you know but just so you know we've been telling you you for quite a while about those areas. It's not a first that we're mentioning it, but I'm bringing it up a little more vociferously right now because, boy, they crash these things. They've crashed big biotech.

Do you know Merck has gone from 134 to 79 in 11 months? Merck, it's a great company. Has done great things. Market don't give a crap right now. Now, if anything changes, we'll let you know. But dang, that's all I got to say. Dang, they've been slamming the heck out of these areas. Go look at regeneron and biogen in the big biotech.

What's been holding up better, Amgen, even though that's still down. I think that has to do with the Dow. And that be the story on those areas. and as always if anything changes we will let you know that all set you have a great evening drive carefully go nix and when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise stay well be well thanks for joining as always good night this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k

That's garykay.com Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order. with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venturex offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.