Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Feeling Good. Big Tech Not So Good.

Episode Date: November 1, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is, you know, November 1st, Tuesday, 2022. And we're alive and well. And may I state for the record. I can't even count the amount of emails I have received in the last day over my little medical issue that looks like, I'm clean as a whistle, but I thank you so much. I have doctors emailing me if I ever need anything.

Call them directly. I have people everywhere around the globe wishing me well I cannot tell you begin to even put on a scale the gratitude I have for this I can't begin to tell you how good this makes me feel

let me just state for the record appreciation to the Brazilian power Thank you. I'm doing great. Just a recap I've had what they have thought are trans-aschemic attacks slash serious migraines with stroke-like symptoms. I believe I was starting to get another one on an airplane back from New York.

I remember a neurologist one said to me, when I had it the first. first time, here is what I want from you going forward. There is a chance this will happen again. If it does, consider it a bad stroke and go right to the emergency room. It's probably nothing. It may be nothing, but every minute counts if you have one. And that's how I treat them. The good news is it happened in 8. It happened in 2012. It happened in 2016. And one would think 2020 every four years but no this one 2022 and to be very clear to each and every one of you if you ever wake up in one side of your face is drooping one side of your

eye is drooping if you look in the mirror in one eyes lower than the next you're like what the heck's going on here if you are slurring your speech if you are reading and you can't even utter read the words and sentences do not come out well, get your butt to the emergency room and tell them what the deal is. And they'll know what to do very, very quickly. Anyway, thanks again. Big time, thanks again. So, as you know, this is a show about you and guiding you through the markets,

which we have done a ye-omens job. Go look up that word if you don't know it. I just figured it out a few months ago on the markets, but also everything else in between. We warned before anybody else and get no credit, we don't care. Who was talking inflation before anybody else? We were. Who was talking bubbles before anybody else? We were.

Who was talking bubbles popping? We were. Who was talking markets topping before anybody? We were. Who's called the counter-tren rallies we have? including the little one we're in right now. Actually, for the doubt, it's pretty decent, but for other things not so decent.

And we'll keep going through that because I got news for you, ladies and gentlemen. There's a lot of jello moving on the plate right now in these markets. The most important names, the most famous names, the most popular names, the most over-owned, over-loved, and over-leverage names. As Steely Dan once said on one of their albums,

can't buy a thrill. and we'll continue to cover that also, but the big story will be tomorrow, unfortunately. We have to wait for one man and his whims, and let's be clear about this, and I pull no punches. We predicted this up front. This man screwed every saver. Destroyed and distorted free markets,

distorted all price and yields, created massive bubbles which all pop big time where people are getting destroyed on things they thought never would happen, created the greatest wealth inequality in the history of time, created the inflation, enabled massive debt and massive deficits, and this clown is still running the show, and his band of merry clowns along with them. They've been wrong on everything, missed everything, have no clue about anything, they're still running the show.

Just remember what we told you for a very long time. Nothing is wrong as long as the market was going higher. Human nature had them saying, well, you know, if we keep printing money, the market will keep going higher and we're going to be heroes. Wall Street's going to kiss our ass. And once we're out of the central bank, they will hire us. And in fact, people like Ben Bernanke, you're getting quarter million dollars for speeches,

even though he was another buffoon that caused all the problems and really started this nightmare experiment off. And that got Janet Yellen, who was part of that group, as the next central bank head, and now she's the Treasury Secretary that's calling for massive tax increases, massive government spending, global taxes. This is our Treasury Secretary. Think about all that.

we get to wait for him tomorrow. Yay. So let me start out by saying, and I want you to listen carefully, and I will say it slowly. We have absolutely no idea how the market's going to react to anything this man decides to do with his band of merry imbeciles. What the chalk is, is that they're going to raise rates three quarters of a point to three and three quarters dash 3.875. They will now be playing bigger catch-up, more catch-up to the 10-year yield, which is already way above. And as we have said all long, all they're doing is playing catch-up.

The two-year yield is 4.545. Yet everybody keeps saying the Fed is doing this and doing that and causing this causing that and we've been trying to tell you no it isn't when the Fed was controlling the markets they were controlling the markets they are not controlling the markets anymore the markets have taken over free markets that's the way it's supposed to be and unfortunately a free if the 10 year yield wants to go to 10 percent there's nothing he can do about it because he enabled and created the inflation that's causing rates to go higher in other words boxed in like Mix nuts.

So that will be tomorrow, and let me repeat, I have absolutely no idea how the market's going to react one way or the other. And as you know, unfortunately, the market reacts to these miseries. Unfortunately, we wish they'd be gone. We think the real market, we think the real market can do the job by itself without them. but no and now all the misfits on Wall Street that made their bones because of the bubbles and because of the Fed are all sitting there praying

that they are going to stop raising rates and I keep telling you they don't matter and I've asked the question what if they announce they're going to slow down but the 10-year yield keeps going up that would be the bad news in case you don't know the 10-year yield, that's your mortgage rate, not the Fed Funds rates.

Which, by the way, look, if you don't know what the Fed Funds rate are, go look it up, you should know that. And you should put in why is that important, but also why is the yield so important and what controls what? you should know all that we want you to know that and actually a little bit surprised more people don't anyway

just had to start with that because that's tomorrow at 2 p.m. We'll be on after the chalk is again they will raise three quarters of point but all they're going to be doing is playing more catch-up now the world is waiting on what are they going to say what are they going to say

Are they going to slow down? Are they going to speed up? Because if they speed up, that's bad. If they don't slow down, that's bad. And if they slow down, that's good. And I keep asking the question, what if they say that they're going to slow down or maybe say something that intamates slowing down?

What if the market reacts poorly to that? Nobody's ever thought of that. And again, we don't even want to talk about these people, but it's a must because they are front and center. They're like the Kardashians. Everywhere you go, the Kardashians. Can't get rid of them. Up next on the edge, market wrap, movies a day, all that stuff today.

I'm Gary. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So the next thing I want to bring up pure market, and I want you to listen carefully.

Very important, actually. The NASDAQ 100 has been a very, very popular place to be. I'm on the monthly. From 2009, I want you to think. about this the NASDAQ 100 the low was $25 of the bare market it topped at $55 when the market topped it in late 2007 but the low was $25 to the low was $25 to the recent high in November of 21 it had gone from $25 this is the NASDAQ 100 it's an index to 408. Do you got that? What is that? 16 times in 12 years. Off the low of a bear market,

though. More than 16 times in 12 years for an index. So first and foremost, a thought process can be, well, that's just too far. I'm writing that down 16 times. The Dow from the 2009 low, has gone from 60. I'm doing the DIA. 64, just so you know, we're doing the ETF, to a high of 369. Last I looked, the Dow was not even sixfold. The S&P from the low, 67 to 479. 7fold, let's call it, NASDAQ 116 fold. So that could be problem number one.

Just remember, too far for too long. But let's do now. Now, we're just letting you know the NASDAQ 100 ended up because of the moves. Apple, one stock, remember, if it was all relative, 100 stocks, 1% each. Apple is 14 and a quarter percent. It's 14 times what something should be if it was even handed. Microsoft is 10 percent. Amazon is 6 percent.

I'm rounding off now. Tesla is 4 percent. The two Google classes of stock, 6.7, 6.8 percent. 6.76.8. Then it drops down to Nvidia, 2.3. 7. Something I didn't know. Pepsi's in the NASDAQ 100, 2.3, Costco 2.1. Facebook is now 1.9, but I can promise you, it was up in the 6s and 7s. It's 1.9 because the stock has crashed. And then to the number 22 stock is above 1%. 78 stocks in the NASDAQ 100 are below 1%.

To the point, why the hell they're in them? Octa is less than one-tenth of one percent. Nettees less than 110 or 1%. Docu-sign less than one-tenth of one percent. Match.com less than one-tenth. So what we have here is a big, gargantuan, heavy weighting in just a select few names. You got that?

And why are we bringing this up? Because those stocks right now suck. They're in bare markets and worsening by the day. In fact, at the close today, Amazon, which is 6% of the NASDAQ 100, remember that bad reaction to earnings on Friday and the market rallied so it held up was down six today to a new yearly low. That's Amazon. Google. bad reaction to earnings rallied up Friday on the better market broke into new yearly low ground today

Facebook has already been crushed whether it rallies up a buck here or there doesn't matter Microsoft bad reaction to earnings had a good Friday it's given it just about all back already very close to new yearly lows Netflix has tried, has been trying, off the lows, but is still down from 701, closed to 286. Tesla, it's 228. Trying to bounce, really can't, down from 414.

So we're just kind of sort of letting you know, that's not good news for the NASDAQ 100. it looks like they went too far riding the rail with a select few names making them much too much of the index those first five and that includes Google's two stocks 40 percent the other 95 stocks in the index are 60 percent with many kind of sort of sort of meaningless. So just want to let you know why everybody has owned these for a very long time. By the way, Apple did not have a good day today, had a good day Friday off of those earnings, which we told you were quite pedestrian.

And also Apple pretty much now is where it was trading. That's up 10% since September. It's up 10% in two years and two months. we'll take that it's about even since uh january of 21 a tiptoe through the tulips compared to everything else only down 18% from the highs but apple last four quarters earnings 25 9 minus 8 and a 4 we'll see not sure exactly what that means we just know that these stocks are in bad shape now. And even though the Dow has rallied up, Google and Amazon are at new yearly lows. After earnings, Microsoft's close. You're catching my drift. So just want to let you know. I thought

it important. We mentioned it yesterday. We'll keep talking about it. Up next, today's market wrap. Movers of the day, all that fun stuff today. Oh, and article day today. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. see Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased. that the crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Okay.

The market wrap is brought you by, Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmottles.com. Mushy day, but some things stood out.

Some things didn't. Dow down 80, S&P down 16, NASDAQ 97 and the NASDAQ 100, 116, and that's with the semiconductors up 18. But advanced declines, not so bad. What was strong today, oils, with oil prices going up, which I can stop right there for one second and take a detour. President Biden is threatening oil companies

a windfall tax on their profits. First off, let me state for the record, and you can go check this out. These are pretty much the quotes of Nicholas Maduro and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela on all the companies there that they took over and destroyed the whole freaking country.

That's Joe Biden's words. Not mine. Go back and read the quotes of Maduro and Chavez. Now, Joe Biden is not going to do a windfall tax on the companies, on oil. he has no shot of it. The Republicans are going to win the House, and I think probably handily, and there's a chance they're going to win the Senate.

Why? Because the Senate candidates on the left suck, and the Senate candidates on the right suck. I can't believe the candidates on the right, but they can possibly win for not sucking less, but because the Marxist Democrats have been running the show and running things into the ground. So the default setting for the many, especially independents, will be the Republic cons. I mean, I can't believe some of the candidates running for our Senate.

Sickening, disgusting, lion's sacks. On both sides, by the way. You know my motto. just remember but the election doesn't matter who wins just remember it's all about power when they're in power debt and deficits don't matter when they're out of power debt and deficits matter they're con artists all of them

every one of them have become con artists and I think some of them go there to do well and do good but they're pounced all over like they're up against the big show in the ring and they have to give in nothing they can do so I just want to let you know vote for you ever you want, ain't nothing going to change. Just letting you know.

I mean that. And you know, we hate the Marxist party. We think there's some sane people in the Republican Party, but it seems the same people are being drowned out by the insanes. And let me state for the record, there's a bunch of insane Republicans there. Anyway, back on square one. As far as the market, financials, good news.

day-to-day. Semiconductor's relative strength. Commodities relative strength. Big buyout, a-biomed, ABM-D. I didn't own any. Up 125 bucks to 377. Big buyout. Now, normally I would say somebody's going to jail because usually you see bad trading right before, but I must tell you. The stock was acting like crap before there's buyout, so it looks like nobody knew. Well done. the tech area remains on what I call suspect side, the bombed out growth names, many of them suspect side, and we'll just see how it goes. And I mentioned those big guys. Yesterday, I believe I said to you, and I'll say it again, that I think a good couple of these names are the new intels and Cisco's from 1999.

once they topped out in 2000 they have never come back IBM IBM was never that strong back then but they never come back why the bigness we said it yesterday once you grow from one billion to 200 billion your growth has to slow and that means your stock slows and god forbid you have a downturn where you're not on top of your game like a facebook because you're overowned overloved and over leverage, your stock gets destroyed, and that's what you're seeing right now. And it worsened today, just letting you know. Dow only down 80, NASDAQ down 97. NASDAQ 100, down 116. That's not good.

At least for those things. But overall, better. My screen of what I call bombed out growth names, beat red today also. So definitely a lot of jello moving on the plate, earnings movers all over the plate also. that we have to deal with and i must say there's been some tremendous movers on earnings out of nowhere on some names dow types i noticed today simple IT you know what that is right gartner they are research for technology companies earnings were been expected boom up 23 7.5 percent that's good stuff goes up on screen iDex lab the stock has been destroyed this past year Up 35 to 394, unfortunately, it was $700.

But we're always constantly looking for those earnings and earning surprises. Then we look at the stock and go from there. So tomorrow, we'll get them and we'll get more earnings reports and see how it goes. And AMD reports after the close. I got it up 50 cents. Stocks gone from 164 to 59. I have to go up a lot more. You catch the drift.

So we're always careful about that also. Hey, stocks up 10% in the aftermarket. Ooh, it's down 60% from the highs. Catch the drift. So we'll keep walking you through things. I mentioned the oils.

New highs and a few oil names. But Joe Biden wants, again, he's not going to get it done. But man, oh man, go look at the quotes in Maduro and Chavez as they took over business after business

after business that they were ripping people off and screwing people. and screwing customers and this and that. You couldn't tell the difference between the two. And you know what I think of all of them anyhow. What else? The 10-year yield got down a buck 40 today to like 3.93, close at 4.05.

So only was down a little bit. That's to be watched tomorrow. I haven't mentioned the coins much, why? There's nothing. They're like dead money right now. I heard the doji coin moved up. You know why? Oh, Elon Musk.

It's gone from 6 to 14 cents because of Elon Musk. People think it's going to be like a currency. You've been warned when this thing goes back to 6 cents. It's worth zero. You've been warned. People are insane. They see bubbles pop. Things going down 90 to 100%.

Oh, let's do it again. Let's try it again. My wealth has already been destroyed. Oh, let's try it again. It's stunning to watch. Stunning. We always tell people about markets. Constantly learn lessons.

Take lessons from the market. Study them. Especially in bad markets. And every time the market game stopped, they had up, how many bucks yesterday? Eight bucks finished flat? People were out yelling and screaming early in the day. Here goes GameStop again. Oops.

Oops. GameStop went from 35 down to close at 2831. That's about 18% during the day. You like losing 18%. Have at it. We're dead serious about every dime. Whether you are or not. Every dime.

And we'll continue to be. Oh, Lastly, boy, oh boy, money markets went from nothing. Getting good yield now. It's about time. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. And by the way, one little last potential outcome of President Biden's Marxist engagement to the oil country. companies, why would companies be incentivized to drill for more oil with a president that wants to put a windfall tax on him? Why would they? Just saying. Just saying. Okay. From articles. Are you ready? And this is why this show is so important. We strip away the bull crap. There's so much misinformation. I can't even begin to tell you.

Here's a headline. Fed meeting, that's tomorrow, to focus on the path ahead for interest rates. What? No. The Fed meeting is to focus on the Fed funds rate. Not necessarily. Interest rates.

Remember, the 10-year is at 4.05. The central bank is just catching up. The two-year is 4.5 in change. The central bank's not even there. Won't even be there after tomorrow. But the good news, I'm just letting you know. Money markets, baby. Yields.

I was getting zero on my cash. Next. The UN has come out and is mad. They're saying that the world's climate sacrifices and trillions of dollars in renewable spending, were all still doomed unless we make radical changes in lifestyles and standards of living. The Earth is 4.543 billion years old.

Al Gore 17 years ago said we're 10 years. We're screwed. Quite a few others did the same. They use every hurricane, every tornado, every wind, every rain, every hail, too hot, too cold, to screw us. Remember, all these people that are telling us what we have to do, from the celebrities that get on their private jets to get to their yachts, to the politicians that have taken us the $31 trillion of debt that are telling us what to do,

I just want to remind you of one little fact that nobody seems to want to bring up on the tube. Hey, Al Gore, the Earth is 4.543 billion years old and 17 years ago, you said we're doomed in 10 years. What'd you get wrong, ass clown? That was one article I saw today. I thought it worth mentioning. Next, you ever watch The View? I haven't. But somehow they have got into the, you know, everybody's got to quote them and this and that.

It's all well and good. They did their usual today. They blamed Republicans and Fox News for the attack on Pelosi. Yes, Fox News and the Republicans for the attack on Pelosi. It's interesting. Interesting. The guy who attacked Steve Scalise on the Republican side was a Bernie Sanders lover. I did not hear the view say it's Bernie Sanders' fault.

Interesting, huh? Just letting you know. Remember, they don't care about you. None of them care about you. It's all about ratings. It's all about power. It's all about who they are. Look at me.

Just got to keep it real. And then there's the Republican side that unbelievable is out there in conspiracy. Now, of a sudden, they hate the police. They think the police are just lying sacks. Before they love the police, now they hate the police. Ah, the police in Oakland or Samfran are lying and this, that, and the other thing. With no information whatsoever. Oh, and the police chief is full of crap.

That's from the Republican side. Next. Joe Biden is warning across the countries in Florida today, my state, that the Republicans would slash Social Security and Medicare. What is he doing? scare the crap out of older voters. Andy's lying. It's a lie.

Nobody's slashing anything. Anywhere. Any time. That's all. Oh, Rick Scott had something that he put out. Yeah, he did. You know what it was about? Let's look at it.

Do you know why? Because the people that put Social Security together screwed up, forgot. Oh, what if people live longer? Oh, we're going to run out of money. Oh, let's just take the money. Oh, yeah, all right. We'll have workers that today pay the retirees. Oh, yeah, that's fine.

Let me give you a story. Back when George W. Bush, he just won the re-election. He invited me to the White House to the Treasury Department because they were trying to get off the ground talking, just talking about Social Security, we've got to do something to fix it. They had to drop it within a week. Do you know why?

The other side said they were out to slash Social Security, Medicare, the whole works, and older voters got very scared. And guess what the Republicans got scared also? And that was the end of that. Do you know if George Bush was able at that time in 2004 to get 2% of your Social Security check to go into, let's say, an S&P 500, just 2%. You know much more money there'd be? Just let you know.

even 1%, but no, do you know why? Because they don't want you to have control. You know, they hate that you have your own IRAs and Ceps and stuff. You know that, they hate that, because you have control of it. Remember, Social Security is all about control. That's all it is. It's a retirement account that they have control of. Your earnings, they have control of.

So Joe Biden lied. That's all. Until tomorrow, you have a great evening drive carefully. we'll have a lot more articles for tomorrow also, and the Fed and all that other crap. And when you get home to like we do, very simple. Make sure you hug your family. Hug your pets. Hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. Take care of yourself. Exercise. Eat well. Drugs suck. Alcohol's overrated. I'll be on with Charles Payne at 2 p.m.

tomorrow, Fox Business. Have a great night, everybody. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.