Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Financials Swoon!

Episode Date: August 22, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. We are in August. It's still hot. It's Tuesday. It's August 22nd. I think I put August 23rd on a couple of

of checks today. 2,023. Hope you're having a good day. As usual, lots to do today, lots to cover today, lots of thoughts, lots of things. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now the X feed. If you don't follow us on X, go to X and put our name in and follow us. If you want to email us, just be nice.

It's pretty simple. Simple as that. And again, this is serious talk on you and that everything affects you. With a little comedy injected when need be. Not so sure I got a lot of comedy today. But we've got a few things we definitely want to cover. We'll do markets. And what I do every morning, in case you don't know,

I go through every article in the Wall Street Journal. Every article in the New York Times, you wouldn't believe New York Times, Gary? Yeah, they have great journalists. It's the clowns that are one-sided. We hate anybody who's one-sided hacks. Give it a bad name. And of course, they're not covering specific news on the person they like, blacking out the person they like.

while giving the colonoscopy to the person they don't like. So they're really not journalists. But there is good stuff in there. We read the local Orlando Sentinel. Let me say for the record, they hate Ron DeSantis. And we have things pushed to us from other writers of different things. And we'll send those articles back. to ourselves, to read them when we don't have time, and then talk to you about them if we think

it appropriate. Got that? Okie-doke. So also, part of what we do, every day, we scan 1,500 stocks, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity. How do you do 1500 stocks? It actually takes me 30 minutes to go through 1500 stocks. It really takes 25 minutes, but I take five minutes to maybe stop, write one down. And when there's nothing to write down, it really goes quick. And typically what I will do, We do it after the close. But some days, throughout the day we're scanning, but some days in the middle of a day, we'll do it in the middle of the day because,

well, we don't think much is going to change at the end of the day. And if anything changes, we can always look at it. Today was one of those days. Now, assume, let's assume, we know what an up trend is. We know what a downtrend is. We know what a bull market is. We know what a bear market is. We know what a bull phases.

We know what a bear phase is. We know tops, bottoms, the whole works. Just assume we don't know what tomorrow brings. And a few years ago, we would say that, and the next line would be, for all we know, Jay Powell is going to add another half a trillion dollars of money printing tomorrow. and the market goes, ape, you know what, to the upside. But there's none of that going on now. In fact, they've been running off some of their money printing,

though it's still above $8 trillion. So when we do our scans, and listen carefully, they're meaty. And we're just letting you know. And this is not something that happened today. It has been going on for weeks, and we have been advising you on it. What you do with it, you get to decide. We don't tell you to buy, sell, shorter cover. We tell you what we see and what we think.

In the past few weeks, we told you, oh, the airlines topped out. Oh, the cruise lines topped out. After the financial had this nascent rally off the lows, oh, they're rolling over, some rolling over badly. Retail still stinks. Retails bounce some and there's some better than others but still stinks. Economically sensitive get in trouble, restaurants in trouble. Consumer staples, food and beverage and household products and tobacco in trouble. So you know what we did today?

We scanned all that and we included semiconductors in that. Why do we include semiconductors? because 90% of them, minimum, are trading below the 50-day moving average. And when they rally up the volumes lighter, and many of them have been absolutely bludgeoned. And of course, the solars, and we told you about China and emerging markets in Brazil.

And medical, we go on and rails, CSX, Norfolk, whatever. So we went through it today, and we're just letting you know the broad market. I don't care what anybody says. I watch people on TV talking about bull markets. They ain't seen what we're seeing. And to make matters worse, and I want you to listen carefully. And we don't know what is out there. Three days before Silicon Valley Bank hit, we came on this show and said, just let you know,

The banks are acting goofy. Not good. What have we told you about Citigroup lately? Well, it's now trading below the lows of Silicon Valley Bank Day, not just the closing lows, but below the lows. Citigroup. Other stocks in the financials are being bludgeoned. Today, the strongest name, J.P. Morgan, broke the 50-day moving average today. The best name.

all the big names and the regional banks rolling over from low levels. We found that today. We went through all those other areas and we're just letting you know they've been worsening. And we've been in a little bit of corrective mode, notwithstanding the little NASDAQ pop off the lows here in the last couple of days. We're just letting you know the broad market. Bluh. When you have a chance, go look at the Canadian banks.

They're below Silicon Valley Bank Day. So broad market. Man, oh man. And it's not about being surprised by it because we kind of have an idea, but every time we do it again, we're like, wow. And when we had that big up day in the NASDAQ yesterday, the bounce, oversawed bounce, we want to see what else is going on.

And it was just that. The Dow was down yesterday. Dow types were down. Economically sensitive names that we follow worsen. And guess what happened today? More of the same. The NASDAQ was up a few. They smacked the Dow types.

They smacked the financials. They smacked all these other areas. And we're just letting, you know, what else recent tops? Little tops in the housing, housing related. cement construction tops off the highs another that has to be watched

because if they're done just another area so we're just letting you know and again we got Nvidia Marri after the close and that may hold some big sway May 25th that held some big sway

but I got news for you Nvidia had two strong days or a big strong day yesterday reversed 26 bucks today to the downside but when I go through all these other semiconductor stocks except for a few, they look like crap. So we're just letting you know, assuming we're looking at a photo album for familiar faces and we know those familiar faces, man oh man. Up next, we'll go through the markets.

Much more. News of the day. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors' edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your

personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If you're a current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX. offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges

worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen,

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. 34 trillion in debt, so they get no respect from me. Both parties.

Just writing something, thank you. Okay, the market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. investment dash models.com. The Dow down 174. So this week the Dow is down 200.

The NASDAQ's up 200. NASDAQ was up eight today. Oh, but advanced declines were 1723. And oh, new yearly lows picked up to 216. You want to know the new yearly highs on the NASDAQ? I'm about to tell you. Because it won't take me too much time. It says Nvidia, but really not because it was down 13 at the close.

Well, this SPAC, VinFAST Auto rallied back up 19 bucks today. They have no sales. It was a SPAC. Beats the hell out of me what's going on there. Don't be the last one in. Let me see if there were any news on it. it. No, I didn't see anything on it. Um, new highs. App Lovin, APP, Remitly Global, R-E-L-L-Y, MAC-T-S-I-T-I-K, P-E-T-Q, P-E-T-Q. That's your new yearly highs on the NASDAQ.

Now we repeat tomorrow's NVIDIA, and who knows, maybe they blow it out. Let me say it a different way. they better not blow up. Underbelly of the market, man. Not very good. Not very good. Dow down 174, S&P 12, NASDAQ, up 8, NASDAQ, 100, down 27. Transports down 113. Sox down 33, advanced decline, 1623 on New York, 1724 on the NASDAQ.

New yearly highs on the New York, hardly any. New yearly lows 92. On the NASDAQ, new yearly highs, hardly any. yearly lows 216. Underbelly. If anything changes, we'll let you know. We are just letting you know it's gotten more icky. Icky's a word, right? Of note today. Are you listening? Dick Sporting Goods! I have to bring this up. Amazingly, did not warn. Normally when a company is going to miss Wall Street estimates by a bazillion, they should warn beforehand. They should warn before Why? Because this stock rallied up for the last two weeks from, let's say, 130 to 145.

They knew about these numbers two, three weeks ago. That's bad stewardship, if you ask me. Anyway, it was down 35 and a half bucks today to 11.5. Down 24% on 17 times average volume. Make that, yeah, maybe 18 times average volume. Are you ready for this? And I'm not so sure this is the whole story. Dix is blaming 23% drop in profits on theft.

As chairman predicts, grab and go crime is going to get worse. Now, large small retailers have been blaming theft called shrink for weighing down profit margins. But to the tune of 99 cents a share, not so sure about that. that. But they're saying elevated inventory shrink. People just walking out with stuff. Now, I must tell you, I have never experienced anybody doing that when I'm in a store here in Florida. In New York, I experienced it twice. And they did nothing. The guys, they just two people and they walked out. It was drugstores. So I think that's part of it, but man, oh man. Which takes me to the next part of the equation.

Macy's. Earnings down 74%, revenue down 7% year over year, down 14% to $12.66. On five times average volume, the stock is cut in half since February. Another retailer. By the way, Macy's stock is trading where it was 0.03, which I have to. let you know i scanned about 80 retail companies today i can count on one hand ones that have good qualities d-ec k deckers that's trading okay lulu lemon needs to break out it's in range i don't know if it's great quality keeps teasing the breakout i'm not sure i can think of another one abacrobby and fitch normal pullback

so far. Urban Outfitters. Acts okay. And is up a buck in the aftermarket on earnings. After that, disasters, absolute disasters. Retail. And it kind of may be a little bit convenient using the word shrink and theft. No doubt it's part of the equation, but 99 cents a share. So that's Dick's sporting goods. That stood out to me today. And then there's things like Schwab. There were questions about Schwab during the episode in March. And they came out and, you know, they looked fine and dandy.

Now they're saying they're changing. They're going to drop a few things, sell some real estate, less headcount. They're going to do a shelf offering, which means somewhat of a secondary. down 5% today, 5646, and headed back. It's still 20% above the lows of May, but just, man, oh man, bad action. And when I tell you, J.P. Morgan, that's been a rock. Just gave back pretty much its whole breakout and finished below the 50-day moving average, the last one. Well, I'm going to be watching that closely.

Big time, I'm going to be watching that closely. Is there other shoes to drop? I don't know. I had no idea about Silicon Valley. And what was the other one? First Republic, I had no idea that was going on. We'll keep informed. Crypto!

What did we tell you? Just be careful. Well, they rallied up crypto. And they rallied up some crummy companies. Up next. Those companies. And much more. is the one only investor's edge.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. Change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual capital.

Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on it. with Gary Colbubbom. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

So, we're not going to mention the names. We're just letting you know that here's one crypto name. $19.88 down to $10.95 in one, two, three, five weeks. Just one. Here's another one in that same five weeks, $114.14.5 down to $7.44. 90. Here's another one. $20.65 down to $10.55. And the last but not least, MSTR, well, 475 down to $3.29. When it was moving up, we simply, we got emails. What do you say about the crypto now? And I would email back politely saying, well, we stand by what we have said for years, 90% of

of the coins, we drop 90% or more with most going to zero, which is exactly what happened. And then we send out the little link to the crypto website that has 23,000 coins with most of them trading at zero. That's how we answer. We also answer by saying, hey, these things can rally up. And I also believe Bitcoin is probably going to stay a trading vehicle forever. Probably Ethereum, maybe a few others and some of these trading companies will be around but a bunch of them have gone bye-bye so we're just letting you know be careful there's nothing that backs this crap micro strategy is just a bitcoin fund now that's all they really do you can ask them and some of these others here's one okay they have uh good revenue growth but they lose a bunch of money

I'm not going to get into names, but has a $2 billion market cap and loses a bunch. Just want you to be careful. Because when they go wrong, boy, they can go wrong quick. You've got to buy some substance. When you're betting on these things, you're purely betting on which way a coin's going to go. And I know there's somebody out there saying it's going to be a million Bitcoin by 2030. Well, that means somebody is going to pay $999,99,99. $0.99. Ask yourself a question. Any of you going to do that? Oh, that same person is still down

70-some-odd percent since 2021 in the funds that they run. So let's listen to that. So we just want you to be careful. I knew I wanted to bring that up. What else? Sticking out. We told you so. No, we did. We still do not believe there is demand for electric vehicles, big time demand. If it's going to be big, big, big, it's going to be forced upon us. I just don't think there's demand. And I've been saying this since day one. And don't get me wrong, I've been in a Tesla.

It was fantastic. My friend has one of these Teslas where you, at Christmas time, it plays you Christmas music. and the speed off the get-go, my goodness, no argument. We just want to let you know that this forcing down our throats of electric vehicles, it's turning into China. Forcing things down the throat of people that don't want it, it can happen. Tesla last week slashed its prices again. in China to boost sales.

They lowered them here also a few times. And a bunch of Chinese electric vehicle startups that have been launched in the last decade, which had government support, bye-bye, bye-bye. 400 Chinese electric car makers have failed in the past 10 years. because they reduced industries. There's so much they can subsidize taxpayer dollars for you to go buy an electric vehicle. Well, guess what's happening here?

You got it. Why don't you go find out about electric vehicle inventory now swelled to 103 days of supplies, and that's double gas-powered cars. The automakers now are discounting. Like crazy. The average electric vehicle price has fallen 20% from a year ago. Still 53,000 in change. Ford recently reduced its production because of losses in unsold inventory. It had 116 days of Mustang MachS and GM's electric Hummer had more than 100 days of supply. And by the way, this is in a growing economy, we think. And you know what the company's going to have to do?

They're going to have to raise prices on their gas cars to compensate now. Just letting you know. Just letting you know. In a free market, business failures are common. The good wins out, the bad doesn't. But this is not free. It's forced. and look what's already happening.

What else do I need to tell you? Is Apple jumping the shark? Apple's iPhone 15 Pro Max is expected to cost $2,100. That's 60% more than a MacBook. Hmm. You know, I've been one of these people that always went to the next phone. I stopped, I think three phones. ago I'm wondering if Apple's getting close on price. We'll see. Last year's the iPhone 14,

the big one was selling for 1499 or 1599, they have two terabytes of storage and titanium and upgraded camera and powerful chips, but 2100 bucks. We'll see. Hey, I'm the guy who said Disney was going to be in trouble if they raise tickets above 100. They may be in trouble finally now because prices for a family come in here. Forget about it. Anyway, something I am definitively watching on Apple. Because the biggest problem Apple has is they are just a outcome of magnificent success. They're so big now, it's so tough to grow business like they used to.

And I'm not so sure raising prices to that amount. But who knows? I thought the iPod was just going to be a walkman. What else? Well, you know, we're free market people here. Donald Trump just had a meeting with an economic policy team or his old economic policy team. And we are being told he's proposing 10% tariffs across the board to put a moat, around the United States.

That would be the most stupid moronic, imbecilic move in history. Why? That's 10% cost to you and I. And the dude don't get it. During his whole presidency, I was calling him out on TV when he kept saying, China's paying for the tariffs when it's us. And he knew it.

The man's obviously not a free market capitalist. A moat around the United States. States, on imports, 10% tariff, what do you think those companies are going to do on price? Where do you think it's going to be passed? You do know he did it and screwed the farmers when he was president. You know what he did with the farmers to keep their votes? He took our tax dollars and paid them off in hard dollars. Did you not know that?

Just facts, ma'am. Just the facts. Up next, what else I got for you? Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet, terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits, you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What do we wait for?

What are you waiting for? One. Ready, go. In the Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa. So, da-da-da-da- They're blaming the S&P rating service on the banks today

that they are lowering the ratings on some of the regional banks. Let me explain why they're wrong. If you were in a bull market for financial stocks, they would ignore these doofuses at these rating services. You got that? Now, we actually now agree with them. We've told you that for a while. I mean, now they're coming to the four.

Hmm. The banks are used to paying out zero, and now people are taking their money out and buying CDs or treasury bills, or taking it to money markets and no longer are these banks getting the spread. Commercial real estate in a lot of areas are in the toilet. We knew that, especially in big cities. New York City, I got to tell you that a lot of buildings are still half empty every day.

And forget about Fridays. It's better, but not even close. So, yeah, no help. But we believe in outcome and just another bad day for the banks. Almost worldwide. Canadian banks just crushed. But lenders, investment bankers and the like. Not MasterCard and Visa, but American Express Capital One, Discovery Financial.

So, MasterCard and Visa, they're just Teflon right now. They ain't budging. So that was the story. S&P downgrades, multiple U.S. banks, tough operating conditions, they say. No kidding. No kidding. When you're used to paying out zero and now you can't,

unless you don't tell your people, your clients, and they leave it there in checking accounts paying two-tenths of a percent, So yeah. And that's kind of sort of the news of the day. I do want to say there is a lot of negative talk on Biden, how he handled Maui. He was there yesterday and he's just embarrassing. The things he was comparing to what's going on in Maui. I was sitting there watching the TV and saying, would you shut up? And his wife was sitting right standing behind them. I'm thinking, can you grant you? him. Anyway, at least I'm glad he went there. And I am. And people are saying it's late. I'm glad he went there. What I don't understand, you stay there for a few hours and you're back and you go on vacation. Think about that. You are the present of the United States. Last I looked, Hawaii is part of that, right? Oh yeah, that's right. Over a hundred dead. a whole town obliterated

potential for hundreds more right while where you're walking you don't even know you stay for a few hours you do a little thing in one of the I don't know you sat there and listened to some people and then you leave on vacation I was thinking to myself

do you remember what they did to George Bush and what was it Katrina the media just ripped a freaking stuffings out of the guy. If this was still George Bush and he did what just Biden just didn't just left in a few hours, they'd be ripping the stuff. Not a word. But I'm glad at least he went.

And I believe, I think the Red Cross, if you want to send a couple of bucks, every time I've been looking at the video every day. They had some drone go on. over, just your world has been destroyed. And not to mention how many people have passed. And presumably, they're still saying hundreds are missing. So our thoughts, our prayers go out to them. And just still, I name my fantasy football team Maui Strong.

I think that's appropriate. Now maybe I can win my league this year. The Couch Potato League. Anyway, that is the... Tomorrow, we have a debate. I want to hear from candidates that it's we the people, not we the government. I want to hear from candidates,

get the hell out of our way, and let us do the job. I want to hear from candidates that they can't turn the lights on in the Oval Office without our tax dollars. I want to hear from candidates. No more debt. Get a few people in there that know how to count.

And no more debt. Cut the size of government and leave us the hell alone. Regulations are fine, rules are fine, but onerous is not. That's what I want to hear. If I hear one of them compliment Putin, kick him in the grapefruits. Trump is complimenting Putin. This Vivek Wamas, whatever his name is. He's a 9-11.

He's doubting on what happened in 9-11. Get him out. Everybody says he's popular. Go screw. You're out. Robert F. Kennedy, you're out. Mr. Conspiracy, everything. Just get out of the people's way, and the country will be a hundred times better.

We'll see. Tomorrow night, Fox News. Brett Baer, Martha McCallum, two of my favorites. You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I am not sure about TV tomorrow, but we'll be back same time for radio. Don't miss that. Have a great one. Peace out all. Take care. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital1.com for details.