Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Finding Leaders [10.02.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: October 2, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome everyone to another Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kaye, who's out today. Today is Thursday, October 2nd, 2025.

We have a great show for you tonight. Number one, I wish everybody that's celebrating the holiday, a very happy holiday and New Year. everybody else, welcome to the show. We've got a lot to cover, so I'm going to dive right in point by point. First, the housekeeping notes that Gary wants me to share. If you don't get this show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com. You can listen live or archive Monday through Friday, 6 or 7 p.m. Eastern on GaryK.com for free on any device. I know I tend to speak fast. I have so much to say, so little time. I do my best to slow down and make the point. addressable so you can digest them but if you miss anything the beauty is you can rewind it fast forward listen again and again at your convenience 24-7 all for free on Gary K.com you can also email Gary ask him about his money management services get his morning notes sent directly to your inbox you can subscribe to

Gary's premium service which is conviction leaders.com take a trial there if you haven't done so already Gary gives actionable ideas daily market webcasts and so much more. All of that's available on convictionleaders.com. All right, housekeeping notes from Gary. The semiconductor move continues to be quite amazing based on a lot of promises of very big numbers going forward, especially when it comes to AI. And they better come through with them. As of right now, the market believes it. And this is Gary saying, and I am amazed at how vertical some of those moves are in some of the names. You can look at quantum computing stocks as another area that's just pretty much gone parabolic or gone straight up.

Crypto was back above the 50-day moving average and has been a place to have to be paid attention to again because it's now emerging. So I want to put that out there for you. Gary says it's good to see oil prices and interest rates coming down the last few days. It should be obvious that the market doesn't care right now about the government shutdown because everybody knows the government shutdowns do not last very long. and everybody knows that we're going to continue to spend our way into oblivion by all the clowns in Washington, D.C. on both sides of the aisle. So those are the notes Gary wanted me to share with you right at the top of the show.

Want to make sure I do my part as a messenger and get those notes conveyed to you. Now, the market. Let's go through a lot of action here, a lot to cover. So we'll break it down for you step by step. First off, these government shutdowns, like Gary said, most of them are not. meaningless. I had a report yesterday. I published where I showed all the previous government shutdowns and I can go through a few of them with you now if you want and how long they lasted. I think the longest one we've had since 1980. Well, first off, let me finish the thought there.

The longest one we had since 1980, I believe, was a few weeks long. Not a lot. In other words, it closed. It's usually politics. It's both sides of the aisle, putting their foot down on certain issues. This one happens to be about health care and other spending. It's not just health care. It's other spending as well. But really, it's a matter of almost a game of chicken or bluff. Like how long can I hold my breath for type of a thing. Eventually one side caves and the other side goes and that's that. So since 1980, we've had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine government shutdowns, maybe 10, depending on 2018, there was one on, I guess two in 2018, one at the beginning of the year, one at the end of the year.

So 10 shutdown since 1980. And the length of the shutdowns, just about all of them, especially the earlier ones in the 80s, were a few days, you know, definitely under 10 days was the average. Three of them out of those 10 lasted more than 10 days, the one in 1995, in 2013, and the the end of 2018. 2018, the government shut down twice, once in January, and then again in December. So, and that was, you've had, that was under Trump as well in 2018. So you've had times before, the one in 18 in December, that lasted over 30 days the government

was shut down for. So again, government opens up after, this is not Trump's first rodeo. He's been through this before. The government shut down twice in 18. And over, he opened, it happens again, you know, prior. shutdowns the market used to sell off, but now everyone knows this drill more or less. Okay, it's more of a game of short-term, hold your breath underwater, and then eventually somebody just caves and that's that. So what happens when we come out of the shutdown, once the market, the government opens up, the market knows the government will be leaner if Trump's going to follow through and actually cut some of the lower performing people, the staff that's not really providing a lot of value. Then we come out stronger. But spending, again, like Gary said, on both sides of the aisle is, I mean, exceptionally high. So hopefully that's at that point gets addressed.

Debt comes down. Deficits come down. Hopefully there's some major progress made on those fronts because, yes, the tariffs definitely help generate income. But, you know, the spending is just, it's a lot. I mean, you can look at charts if you want about deficits and spending. it's just through the roof and it's not sustainable. So we'll see how this unfolds,

but the market knows typically these government shutdowns are just political theater. It passes with it very, very little to no impact on either Main Street or Wall Street. Now, how long this one goes for? Nobody knows.

I don't know. Maybe the deal gets done by the end of the show today. Again, it deal can get done at any point in time. But for the most part, you know, we come out of this thing typically we come out stronger just about every shutdown. You know, we had one in May of 1980 that lasted a few days.

You had one in November of 81, and then you had one in October of 84. You had one on October 86, another one October of 1990, November of 95, and then December of 95. That was, that's interesting. So 1114, 95, and then 12, 16, 95. And then maybe that was just a one month. extension, October of 2013, January 20th of 18, and then 1222 of 18. That was the last time the government shut down. And then, of course, now October of 25. And the duration is yet to be known. But we'll usually come out of these things stronger. Again, not always, but that's typically

in the market for now, it just doesn't matter. So we'll see what happens. I mean, Trump's known notoriously for saying you're fired from the apprentice way back when, if you remember watching that show 20 years ago. So whatever it was out. So there's a possibility here in the news. I'm saying, oh, Trump says he wants to fire a bunch of people. All right. We'll see. You know, in business, it's normal and healthy for businesses to do that from time and time again. You know, Jack Welsh from GE had a great line decades ago where you would take all your employees in the lowest 10% that just aren't providing value, aren't performing as strong. You just cut them. Why? Because it's best for the organization. It's nothing personal.

It's just for the greater good type of a thing. But if they're performing, you know, Trump's not going to get fired from this government shut down and neither will high-level, high top, you know, high ROI kind of players in the government. So the ones that do get fired or forload or whatever the case is, they tend to be the ones based on someone's discretion, whether they are providing a lot of value or not. The ones that provide a lot of value tend to stay in just about, again, I'm making general statements in just about any organization. So that's the news with the shutdown.

The market, as Gary said, the semiconductor stocks, you can look at the SMH, remain a very, very strong area in the market. When you look for themes, right, you want to find areas that are working, that are leading. By definition, you have leading areas in the market and you have lagging areas in the market, just like in sports. You know, you like baseball, we're going to the playoffs and then in the World Series. You got NBA season starting soon, football seasons kicked off. Any sports, you want to know what the teams are. Hey, what are the Yankees doing, the Red Sox, the Dodgers, the Mets, whatever it is, your team is, you want to know what the standing is. The same thing with stocks.

There's sectors, and then there's stocks in those sectors. And a great way of, you know, getting ahead is knowing the leaders and knowing the laggards. And avoiding the laggards, which Gary does a great. job helping people avoid the laggards and focusing on like and Gary does a great job helping you find leadership right day in day out day and day out Gary's out here every day talking about leadership talking about what's working what's not working areas to avoid right and areas to focus on now just because semiconductors are leading I get this question a lot should I blind should I just buy a madam no it's a matter of time right

Timing the market is they say some people say they can do it. Some people say you can't do it. I'm not here at debate. All I'm just saying is that there's probabilities. High probability outcomes. Usually it's not after a big move up to go buy it. Usually markets pull back, right? Sectors pull back.

Stocks pull back. Whatever it is. Gold is very strong. One of the strongest performing asset classes this year, GLD there. It's extended. it's way extended above its 50-day moving average. It's almost 10% above its 50-day moving average, the GLD. The semiconductors, same thing.

The semiconductors are about 12 to 13% above their 50-day moving average. That's extended. Doesn't mean it can't go higher. Of course it can. But from a probability standpoint, it's a higher probability that's going to pull back at this juncture than continue to rally. So knowing when to get in, having a general feel of it, Again, this art more than the exact science really paves away for a big success over the future. Now, up next we've got a lot more to cover.

I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units

and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to,

Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience 24-7 anytime you want. So we spoke about the market being up, gave you some notes from Gary. We spoke about the fact that the semiconductor index, the SMH, is a leading area in the market. It's also extended. Gold, a leading area in the market also extended and spoke about high probability trades. So think of the 50-day moving average as a magnet. It doesn't have to pull back into the 50. You could pull back into the 21 day or even the 10 day moving average. Lots of moving averages, but the idea is to understand the patterns, right? And just the expression says history rhymes. It doesn't repeat, you know, it repeats.

It rhymes however you want to. We've seen this over and over and over again. These big leading areas, semiconductors, AI stocks, gold stocks, back in the 1990s to the 2000s, the dot-coms, any of these themes where you get these leaders, these areas that just lead the market, they rally, take the stairs up as the expression on Wall Street, they rally, they go sideways and build a new base, break out, rally, build the new base, break out, so on and so forth. And they, when they break out, they pull back after every breakout and they build a the new base. And they pull back into the 21 day. They pull back into the 50. They bounce off of those areas and boom, off to the races. Sometimes they undercut those areas and then take off

again. It's just how, and these trends last for years, right? Navidia's been a leading stock since we came out of that 2022 bear market. And now we're heading it to 26 almost. This is the fourth quarter of 25. So it's been a long time. You've had big dips along the way, even earlier this year. Navidia had a huge pullback with the tariff scare, right? When the market pulled back in March and April. But then it found support, bounce, and ripped and now it's at a new all-time high. So, again, understanding, chasing stocks, what does that mean?

You're buying extended typically is not a good strategy. Doesn't mean just because you buy a breakout or just because you buy a 50-day moving average bounce. You know, it has to go up. No, those can breakouts fail. You know, those 50-day moving average bounces are 21. They fail, too. They happen. But it's about probability, folks.

That's the theme for today. It's high-probability traits. How do we find these high-probability outcomes? If it's this quiet residential street, I look both ways before I cross it, and I want to get to the other side of the street, and there's no cars, and I cross, and I'm healthy, I can cross the street. It's probably a good decision, low probability. that I'm not going to hit by a bus crossing that street.

Okay. Low probability that I'm going to hit. I'll take that trade. I'll cross the bus. Jumping on an airplane. Same idea, right? Anything can happen. I could trip and fall.

I can, God forbid, have some kind of situation occur where a bus hits me, but it's extremely low probability. Airplane, most likely it's going to take off and land. It's not going to crash. Okay, great. Getting in a car, so on and so forth, right? That's how life works. Same thing with stocks.

When you understand the probabilities and stack the odds of success in your favor and really minimize risk, you're way ahead of the pack. Because most people don't even look at risk. They come into the market, they pull out their calculator and they say, okay, if I buy 10,000 chairs or 100,000 shares or 1,000 shares of XYZ and it goes up, I'm going to buy a new Ferrari or a Porsche or pay off my mortgage or or or the calculator and they just get lost in. like my friend Andy says. They get lost in the sauce. Oh, this stock just has to get to 100. And then X, Y, Z, whatever that number is, right? And that's always a moving scale.

It never ends, right? So, okay, great. You sell it at 100. It goes to 150. Oh, my God, I could have money. I could have should have whatever. And then it goes down to eight. So in kindergarten, they taught my kids, you get what you get and you don't get upset.

Understanding that this is a psychological process, this game, this business, this investing. it's the biggest competitor is your former self. Who's smarter? Me today or me 10 years ago? Hopefully me today. You today, you 10 years ago, right? Okay, great. A lot of this business, it's buying, right? It's selling, knowing when to buy and when to sell.

Position sizing, if you size your position too big, you can get in trouble because you won't be able to handle a normal pullback. If you size it too small, it's not going to really make a dent. Even if the stock goes up so much, it'll barely impact your portfolio. But a lot of this is really understanding the psychology of the investing, trading and investing, because really controlling that inner conversation is paramount. Because nobody I know consistently buys every low and sells every high perfectly. It just doesn't happen.

The good news is you don't have to do that to be very successful in the business. It's really super important. But understanding that mindset, understanding that if you have a process, that's repeatable, not over one trade or two trades, but over a thousand trades, over 10,000 trades, over the next 10 years. You know, what's worked in history? If you look back in history, what's worked? Well, buying leaders, that's worked, right? Buying breakouts, that's worked. Having stops and protective stops, keeping your risk small. When you're wrong, that's okay. Be wrong small. When you're right, let those winners run. Be right bigger than you're low.

these are things that have just time and time again over the decades have worked. But a lot of it has to do with making rational, not emotional decisions with your money. I wrote a book. It's called Psychological Analysis is my contribution to Wall Street. For those of you that don't know, you can get on Amazon. And if you like it, please leave a nice review. And the whole idea in one sentence is to teach people how to make rational, not emotional decisions with their money. That's my passion.

because I made every emotional decision you probably can. Make a mistake and then some. And I still do. I have to control it. My inner narrative, right? It's easy to beat myself up. Oh, I could have, if I only did this, X, Y, Z. If I only did that, how could you add them, you know,

it's a negative ROI. That negative talk in your head. Flip it, control it. Understand we're humans. it's virtually impossible. I don't know anyone at least that buys every low to the penny and sells every high to the penny consistently. It just doesn't happen and that's okay.

So understanding that that's not going to happen, for me, it took a lot of pressure off. Oh, I just bought a stock and it went up a lot. Sold it. Great. Get what I get. Don't get upset. After I sold it, it kept on going. It's so frustrating. Of course it's frustrating. I mean, raise your hand if that ever happened. I'm sure lots of hands are going up right now. But what do we have to do? Pause, reflect and understand it's part of the process. Baseball, right? We're just talking about baseball. The best baseball players in the world have what a three out of ten batting average, 0.33 or somewhere along those lines, meaning they connect three out of ten times. They strike out seven out of ten times. And they're the best in the world. More strikeouts than hits.

But same thing as trading. Same thing with baseball. It's asymmetric. The risk versus reward. When they're wrong, they strike out. They lose one. One out. That's it.

It's a worse that can happen when you strike out. Okay, great. When you hit it, you get on base. You can score one. You can score two. You can score three. Or you can hit a grand slam and score four. So when you're right, you're right four.

Or write three or right two. When you're wrong one. That's a winning system. Same trade. All right, up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors. I just want to thank you very much for being here.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000. airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, or you want to rewind anything I say and listen again. You can go to GaryK.com. Rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience 24-7.

on any device you want, all for free. All right, so a few thoughts here. We spoke about the government shutdown, spoke about the market, spoke about leading areas, lagging areas, spoke about probabilities going after high probability trade, spoke about risk versus reward. And I mentioned breakouts and setups

and how stocks move, right? They rally, they take the stairs up and the elevator downs the old Wall Street adage. What does that mean? Stairs up. Well, all right, you rally, you go sideways, build a base, and bases come in all different shapes and sizes. but you basically move sideways, which is the stair part of it,

and then you rally again. It's the next leg up, and then you base again, and then you rally again, so on and so forth. In order to rally to have that next leg up, you have to break out of a base. It's just that simple. And every great leading stock, monster stock, true market leader, any of these words you want to use to describe these huge moves,

some of these stocks that have just really just mind-boggling moves up, Over the centuries, not just, I mean, go look at the tulips way back when, not just stocks, but other markets. I mean, this is universal. Any free publicly traded market does this that I know of at least. Stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities. This applies to anything that's freely publicly traded where there's price and volume amount of exchange and multiple people and the price is determined by the market. This happens because it's psychology. fear and greed drive the markets.

It's very simple. Fear and greed drive markets. The way stocks work, there's something called anchoring. I have these things called cognitive biases in my book, where I go through some of the cognitive bias, you can Google it cognitive biases, and I go through some of them that apply to trading and investing. Well, if you have a mind, you have biases.

I have a mind. I have biases. Okay, well, which ones are impacting my decisions unconsciously that I'm not even aware of? I want to know what they are. So I spent years studying them, I put a bunch of them in the book. One of them is anchoring.

Well, what's an anchor is a price that occurs in the stock that causes people to anchor value to it? Let's say, for example, a stock is trading between 100 and 90 for six months. Every time it gets to, between 90 and 100. Every time it gets up towards 100, it pulls back to 90 and then it bounces, goes back up to 100, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 98, you know, doesn't have to touch 100 perfectly. again, it's more of a science than an R. Goes near 100, goes 98, 99, goes down to 91, 92, and then goes back up towards 96, 97, goes down to 94, 95, goes back up to 99, gets close to 100, hits 100, then goes back down again, you know, so on and so forth for six months, or 12 months,

or three months. It doesn't matter. Basis come in all different shapes and sizes. It could be 100 to 80, right? I'm just giving a hypothetical 90 to 100 here. Okay, great. That's a range. resistance is 100 in that example support is 90 resistance is a ceiling think of that and supports a floor okay well what does that mean every time it gets to 100 there's an anchor there's something up there that's resistance it's stopping the stock from going higher in order for that stock to double or triple or quadruple or go up 10fold it has to break out above 100 literally it's the only way it's going to go up if you have a base like that in that example it's got to break out now Every great stock in history breaks out multiple, and then bases again, rallies up, bases,

breaks out, rallies up at bases. Okay, great. Well, during, you know, in present market included, during the day, stocks break out. Now, most breakouts don't work, the ones that do just like baseball. Most times you swing the bat, you're not going to hit a grand slam. Okay, when you break out doesn't work. You can get out small loss, no problem. When the breakout works, hey, maybe that can be the next big, huge, true market.

leader or a big monster stock or this you know so on so you never know okay but i want to be there the moment it breaks out that's telling me that something has changed in the market now how do we find these breakouts i used to scan for hours and hours and hours but i built the site you can check it out if you want it's called breakouts and setups.com breakouts and setups.com and said all right i'm scanning thousands of stocks i want to find stocks that are breaking out have an algorithm at a team of guys that are way smarter than me. Build it. Okay, great. It's now available. Today, there were 35 breakouts on breakout setups.com and there were 122 setups. Let's go through a few of them. So this is sorted by price percent change. These are biggest movers. Again, these are not by

recommendations. I just want to see where the money's flowing. When I see a stock basing for a long time and then have a huge move up, something changed, especially when it does it, on volume. So the first one that shows up here is T-S-H-A. Taisha gene therapy. It's a biotech company loses money, so I'm not touching it with a 10-foot pole, but I want to see it. And it's a low-price one. It closed today at five, around five bucks. Okay, it was up 53%. That's a crazy move up. Again, I'm not touching it, but average volume is 3.5 million. This guy had 121 million shares traded today. Like Gary says, it's not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying. Those are the big institutions piling in.

And this thing has been basing going sideways for months. It's a low-price stock, loses money. I'll pass. Go to the next one. Okay, the next one. Can, C-A-N is a ticker. Chinese company, Bitcoin mining. I get it.

Broke out today from a bottoming pattern. It's a low-price stock. I'll pass. But I want to see it. L-T-R-X, the next one. Broke out from a nice little base here, base on top of the base. All right.

Noted. Go on to the next one. ASTS. AST Space Mobile. All right. Telecom company. They're doing satellites. They're losing money now.

Big breakout today on volume. Average volume is 10 million shares, broke out on almost 30 million shares above $60. This guy's going sideways between 60, 95 and 40 to maybe 36 in that range. That was the base the last several months. And today it breaks out above 60 on monster volume. Again, big investors buying. CRISPR SP, the next stock that showed up. Broke out a few days ago, broke out again today.

Broke out of a mid-level base a few days ago, broke out to a new high today. Very strong, 52-week high. Very strong action there. Next big breakout, APLD, applied digital. It's a little bit extended. I'll pass. ZGN. This is an Italian luxury menswear company.

Okay, great. Nice little breakout there. Ah, multi-month breakout. You can go back further. Good breakout. there, Z-G-N. Didn't have the volume I like, but, okay, I want to see what's breaking out, right? And then you just go through them and go through them and most are not going to work. I'm not going to buy all these breakouts. Here's another one, A-L-L-T.

Israeli company provides network optimization products. Okay, computer networking stock, broke out today on about average volume. All right, no problem. Next, PLSE, another biotech company or medical systems company, a low-level breakout there. And then what else can we show you that's notable? P-O-N-Y, another Chinese stock, broke out to a new high and IPO from late last year. And then so on and so forth. And most of these, again, I'm not buying them. I didn't do any buying today, but I want to see the breakouts.

I want to see which stocks are moving. Where's the money, right, flowing on any given day? That to me is very helpful. Why? because when you do find a good one, like a week and a half ago, Tesla or a few weeks ago, Tesla showed up. When was it? It was on 912.

So a few weeks ago, about two weeks ago, three weeks ago, Tesla showed up on 9-11, then 912 as it set up before that, and then a breakout. The second it broke out about that 367 level, it showed up. And then went from 367 to 435 were it closed today, at a high of 470. So 370 to 470, 100 bucks in two or three weeks, that's a really good breakout, right? And then it gives me clues to see where the money, are there any themes that are breaking out.

Here's DuPont. D.D. is a ticker. Makes money. Chemicals company. Nice mid-level breakout there. Nothing to go crazy about, but good breakout. Right? And then are there other chemical stocks breaking out today?

when the AI stocks were breaking out over the last several months, great. We saw lots of AI stocks breakout. The steel stock broke out today, steel dynamics. StelD showed up on breakout from setups.com. Guess what I, you know, okay, I'm looking at other steel stocks. I'm not necessarily going to buy it, but it gives me ideas for themes. And then I'm going to look around and say, oh, okay, money's flowing like solar stocks. Money was, they were showing up over the last few weeks.

Okay, great. A few months ago, it was the AI stocks. Okay. Noted, right? Ross Stores, R-O-S-T is a ticker, broke out above 153-54 today. All right. 156, 18 is where it closed. It had a high of 155. It's not an all-time high breakout, but it's a pretty good mid-level breakout. So it's noted, right? C-A-R-G, car gurus. Okay. Good earnings growth there.

Little cup and handle. It's not a thunderous breakout. In fact, it's a low-volume breakout, C-A-R-G. But, oh, okay, here you go. What's moving? Ralph Lauren, R.L. Another breakout today. So again, you're getting themes. Where's the money flowing?

Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero shape thanks to four times more stretch than computer. brands and their innovative horizontal

quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more my podcast. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investers Edge with Gary Kaltba. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com. Rewind, fast forward. Listen at your convenience anytime you want 24-7.

So, all right, we spoke about a lot so far. And go back and listen, but we'll leave a few minutes left, so I want to get into the other side of this. It's the breakouts is, again, find the themes, find stocks that are breaking out. Look for abnormal volume on the breakouts. The heavier, the volume, the better. Look for big price movements. That tells you it's the big institutions moving it. It's not just, like Gary says, Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob, but it's the big institutions, and that's really where the big setups are and the big movement comes when the big institutions pile into a stock.

And then Mary and Uncle Bob tend to follow. But, you know, I want to find big, heavy volume movers. Those tend to be really good that are breaking out on volume. And then find themes, right? If we see a lot of oil stocks moving up, oh, maybe I should watch oil or a lot of gold stocks a few months ago

were breaking out. Well, all right. And then gold has a huge move up. The GDX, if you look at the GDX, it broke out in August. GLD broke out in September. It doesn't always happen, but it's really encouraging when you see the commodity stocks lead the commodity. Well, how do I know what was happening was G, DX, NG, a lot of gold stocks were breaking out while GLD was basing.

And then all of a sudden, GLD breaks out in September and just rips higher. All right, not a mistake. So those are the breakouts. Now the setups, here's some setups from breakouts and setups.com, Microsoft had a huge move up from April 344 up to 555 in August, and then it has to consolidate. Take the stairs up, right? Big move up, builds a base, consolidate. So now it's basing along the 50. That's a setup.

It hasn't broken out yet, but it's setting up to breakout, right? Broadcom, AVGO, another setup had a huge gap up a few weeks ago when they reported earnings, and now he's been moving. sideways for the last few weeks to consolidate that move up. Walmart talked about resistance earlier as being a ceiling. Well, all right, 105, 106 areas, resistance for Walmart. It's at 101. And it's been doing that since February, more or less. You had a dip in April, March and April because of the tariffs. It came right back. And now you're basing. If this thing can break out above 106 on volume, it's a high likelihood has another chance to move higher. Doesn't have to. Again, most breakouts don't work. And that's okay, providing there's a stop.

Right. PLTR, Pallantir. Another great setup slash breakout. Broke out today from a little cup and handle base. Light volume. One 90 was the high from a few months ago. And now you're at 187. Something to note. AMD. Right. Had a huge move up, 76 to 186. And then he pulled back. He built the new base for the last few months. And now he's coming up the right side of the base. He's back above the 50 today as a setup. right IBM huge cup forming there

big base 296 is a high he's at 286 again setting up so it's not just the breakouts I want to find stock setting up to break out as well TJX

we spoke about raw stores and Ralph Lauren breaking out while TJX is setting up the breakout 14558 was a high he's now at 142-49 that to me is valuable

right ETN Eaton Power company. Okay, great. The group is ranked 17 out of 197. Strong group. He's forming a cup and handle right below the handle. Okay, good setup there. Spotify. Huge move from April 475 to 785 in June slash July. Okay, pulls back, builds a base, cup and handle here. 74830 or 745, depending on which high you want to use. Either way, he's forming a nice handle. A breakout above 745 or above 745. 48 30 would be real bullish and you get 707. Again, that's how these setups work, right?

Before the stock breaks out, look at Crouch Strikes, CRWD, another setup on breakouts and setups. 50720, it was a recent high. He's got a cup, a little handle here, breakout above 503 area. Go a dime above it. And boom, he breaks out. So not only don't want to find out the breakouts, I want to find out the stock setting up to breakout before they break out. Just because he's setting up doesn't mean he has to break out. Again, this is a art more than an exact science, but what am I doing?

I'm eliminating a lot of the laggards and I'm focusing like a hawk on leaders. And that's the magic. It's higher probability outcomes. And object in motion tends to stay in motion. Someone taught me way back when in the late 90s when I got started in the business or started learning about investing in the business was, hey, you want to buy stocks that are going up? Look at the new high list. That's it.

Don't just blindly buy a stock on the new high list because you could be extended like we spoke about earlier with the semiconductors now or gold now, but you want to find stocks going up, look at new highs. So again, the breakouts and setups, and that's how they work. So I hope that's helpful for you. Again, I want to give you a value, and that's how I want to help. It changed my life because otherwise it's overwhelming. There's thousands of stocks out there and ETFs and commodities and currency.

It's too much. I got to filter it down to a universe. I want to find those leaders and then find those leaders as they're setting up and then see them when they are breaking out. See Tesla, the day it broke out. That's value for me, right? So as we wrap up, well, we're getting towards the end of the show here. Again, putting the pieces together.

The market short term is getting extended. Can easily pull back. Watch support near the 21-day moving average and then the 50-day moving average for the major indices. The NASDAQ-100, the QQQQ is the leading index this year. It continues to be a leading index. Why? semiconductors, tech stocks are leading. And the NASDAQ 100 is tech heavy index.

All right. Shocker. It's leading. But the SMP is also really strong, the SPY and the Russell 2000, the IWM, kind of woke up over the last few weeks as the Fed hinted at Fed cuts. And we'll see what happens. Government shut down. Tomorrow is supposed to be the jobs report.

Don't think it's coming out with the jobs report. It'll be delayed. That's okay for now. We'll see how long this government shutdown lasts. if it's a really long time or if things get really ugly, hey, the market can easily sell off. But if it's just a short-term, you know, game of chicken here or just hold their breath for a little, both sides of the aisle, they want to act tough and then one side's going to cave, yeah, typically that's been the playbook for prior government shutdowns. And the market knows that. But again, want the price.

Because all the news is filtered into the price from my standpoint and based on my knowledge, right? We're all looking at the news and what people do. Each person's free to do whatever they want, but it shows up in the price. And then when there's a new catalyst, new earnings, new data, new jobs report, whatever that new inflation report, whatever that catalyst is, things change. And then you see the price react. Sometimes the price moves in advance, like the Fed cuts. The market sniffed out a Fed cut weeks before the actual cut.

And then when the actual news happens, oh, it sells off. By the rumor, sell the news, is the expression there. So take your time, everybody. I believe that's the end of the show. I want to thank you very much for being here. I believe Gary be back tomorrow. Gary says, hug the children. Enjoy.

Enjoy. Life is a blessing. Enjoy it. I'll speak to you again soon. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com. That's Gary K. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your first? Your wallet, terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.