Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Flip Flop [07.01.2025]

Episode Date: July 1, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Tuesday, July 1st, 2025.

Hope you're having a good day. to thank Adam, my good buddy Adam Sarhan. He is family, by the way, for doing the show the last couple of days. As I was flying out, I am currently right now in the middle of London, England. It is 8 p.m. here at night. I'm whooped. I'm tired. I'm out of sorts, but we're here. I will be doing some Wimbledon. You know what I went to see today? And I, I, and I, I'm tired. I'm out of sorts. I'm I've been to London. I'm going to say this is my 12th time, something like that. I've never been to the Churchill Warrooms.

It was fantastic. And if you've never learned about Churchill and what he did and how he did it, you really should take some time to do that. Anyway, a few notes of being here. Number one, it's busy. It is Wimbledon. I believe they have a formula. one in the next week also.

It's very busy. Tourism from all around the globe. I actually take people aside and ask them where they came from. And they're coming from everywhere. London is a great place to visit. Just so much to see. So much to do. And quite the...

I love the place. I absolutely love it. way, I've played all the golf courses around England. I've been to many of the small towns, and it's just, it's just a fantastic place. Now, the government, not the, you know, they need some work. There's a little bit too much of them, and you know what we think of that, but we can do that another time. Anyway, we're having a very good time, but not so much on the market. And we got lots to cover today. Don't really need to get into the last couple of days.

They were good. Today, I have a few things to cover of import. And in case you do not know, currently, it is 802 p.m. here in London, which is 302, Florida time, so the market's still going on. And if I told you, let's see, I've got us. Spotify is down $47. Netflix is down $45. Met is down $21.

Service now is down $24. G.E. Vanover is down $36. CrowdStrike is down $20. Broadcom, one of those AI names, is down $13. What would you think? Not a real good day. The Dow's up 400. Interesting enough with the Dow up 400.

This is as the market's still rolling. The S&P's down. Why? Very big technology weighting. And I can tell you the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 types were trying to rally. They were down like 250 earlier. And a little while ago it was only down 110, 115. But they've fallen off a little bit.

And as I speak, Dow's still up 425. The NASDAQ's down 185. NASDAQ 100's down 222. So what's going on? Well, I try to use analogies here. And I really haven't been able to come up with one except to say everybody's selling one part of the market and putting it into another. selling off what we call the high beta growth technology, artificial intelligence, stocks, and buying up everything that hasn't been working.

Chemicals. Home builders. Building construction. Regional banks. Yes. The lowly regional banks broke above some range today, which means the Russell 2000 had us good day. And so do the midcaps. So have the equal weighted S&P.

The S&P, as I speak, is down a little. The equal weighting is up nicely. In fact, up one and a quarter percent while the regular S&P is down. Why? because the rest of the market, the broad market that has been so weak versus these names and areas that we just said to you were down so much changed today. For how long we don't know, for how far we don't know. But as we have looked at the patterns throughout the day, areas that weren't or areas that weren't, are coming on, areas that were, up until today, we're fine, getting some distribution today.

Again, what extent we don't know, how long we don't know, how far we don't know, but we acknowledge it. As I look to my right, transports up 475 as we speak, we're over 600 earlier. things like Ryder FedEx J.B. Hunt Norfolk Southern I haven't had to mention these to you, have I?

Why? Because they were dead. Above that Hovenanian, Lenar, Pulte Holmes, Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton Turning up off the lows. We have highlighted for you the potential for them bottoming. Today we think they're confirmed.

How far they go? We don't know. How long we don't know. Do they flop tomorrow? We don't know. We're just letting you know the action today has confirmed a bottoming process. And we'll see what tomorrow brings. Along with them home builders, you know what else has been dead?

Home Depot in the Dow up seven and change. What's up 10? Sherwin Williams in the Dow up 12 today. Guess what? Paint. Things like Pool Inc. Up 14 today. Goes into the homes.

William Sonoma up six goes into the homes. And then economically sensitive. United Rentals broke above a little resistance at 7.302. a week ago, up 24 today to 776. It had been a weakling. In other words, what's first is last today. What's been last has been first today. Best way I can describe it.

Financials. We already know about Goldman and J.P. Morgan and Bank of American City Group all at New Yearly highs. but other things have also been coming on. Names you may have never heard of. Like in Evercore and the like. Gaming, casinos, when you have a chance, go look at WynNN tonight, and LVS tonight.

They're coming up the right side today. And pretty darn strong. As I look at the Dow, Amgen up 12. That's 78 Dow points If my abacus is right Rusty as can be but I think we're close Why do I bring up Amgen? Because guess what's been weak?

The big biotech And believe me big biotech is still Pretty darn weak What else in the Dow? United Health Up 12 today Another 78 Dow points What's going on there? money flowing into the managed care.

Again, what was first is last today. What was last is first. We don't know how long it lasts, how far it goes. We're just letting you know. And as I look around on my screen, Mikado Libre down 115, Axon, AX-O-N, down 53. There's a lot of

carnage in some of the leading names in the market and we acknowledge and we don't screw around with that fact again we'll see what Tamar brings interesting enough my semiconductor screen is 75% green

but the SMH is down about a percent today why is that we'll explain up next and lots to cover today. The Big Beautiful Bill. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, The extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient.

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programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and welcome once again to investors edge coming to you from london england of the uk quite a great place i walked 24000 steps yesterday I think today I'm about 16,000, 24, that it's about 11, 12 miles. Love it. Tomorrow and Thursday, Wimbledon, Friday, fly back to New York. Saturday is one year birthday of my grandson, Reese. It's a year already. It's a year.

tomorrow's July 4th I'll be I get in about 11 p.m. In New York I'm taking a late flight because Friday I want to do something I've never done here and that's go to the Windsor the town as well as the castle. So I'm going to take a little train over there, check it out, have some time doing that and then head to the airport around 4 o'clock 4.30 and hopefully everything

goes well. As I speak, Dow 415, S&P down 11. It's unbelievable. And that is just the weightings of the indices. Nasdaq, not that great down 184. I mentioned earlier how most of the semiconductor stocks are up, but the SMH is down. And the socks is down. Why? Massive weighting in Nvidia, which is down about 2.5% today. Broadcom, which has been strong, symbol AVGO, down 13, down 5% today, giving back the whole little move it had in the last few days. What else is big? I think Taiwan semi, that's down a couple.

AMDs down six, arm holdings down seven. So just a few stocks could really move an index or an ETF because of the big waiting. Just letting you know. What did we do today? Oh, we lopped a couple of things off. A couple of things defensively. One offensively.

Two profits, one little loss. But we're still very invested at this juncture. Still very invested. But you know what I have to do now? As we tell you, we have these screen. I'm going to have to pay a lot more attention to one of these screens that I didn't have to pay attention to. Do you know, on this screen, I got Cheesecake Factory at a yearly high, Cracker Barrel at a yearly high, Chipotle starting to come on again, Shake Shacks acting better. So restaurants, and then the regional banks, I got to start watching.

PNC, M-TB, but all I really have to do is watch the KRE, which is the exchange-traded fund. I got to watch the home builders now. And that's fine. There's only about 10 stocks I follow. And then those transports, I didn't even have to pay attention to these things for a while. We'll be doing that now. But you know what I'm going to do the most is the stocks that are getting trashed today? these are some of the great growth names, great growth companies in the world.

We're going to see where they decide to get defended, whether it's important support levels or moving averages. And we'll let you know. But today they are coming after them with a fervor. Which leads me to Apple. We haven't had to talk about Apple in a long time. Bear market. Apple, bear market. market. Yesterday,

there was bad news. Apple announced that they have to go outside to help out with the AI. Stock went up six bucks before you can boom. Finished up four. Today, with technology getting hit,

it's up three bucks today. Guess what Apple is done. Technically, Apple has, like we said, the home builders, confirmed a turn up. Does it hold? Don't know. Does it last? Don't know.

We're just letting you know yesterday. It confirmed and today a little bit more. We'll see. Don't know. But for you, Apple-ites, just letting you know. So a lot of jello moving on the plate while I am traveling thine world. And where it stops, who the heck knows? but the worm turned today, not yesterday, today. It's one of those what they call rotations in the market. We call it a vicious rotation out of one in the other.

Bitcoin, since I'm asked every day about it, remains range mouth. It is trading where it traded in December, early December. So one, two, three, four, five, six, seven months of no gains. but not breaking down. Gold. Well, gold had broke below the 50 day. It's back above. And the gold

miners held that all important level. So the miners are actually a little bit stronger than the metal. But rangebound. We told you about seven weeks ago that we thought that would go rangebound. That's exactly what happened. And all rangebound means is

trades between two points, doesn't go above it, doesn't go below it. but that was after a move to the upside. And since it has not broken down, it still stays viable. What else has happened out there? Ten-year yield remains stable. Oil prices. Okay.

Hanging in there. Oil, as you know, had a big move up. It had a big move down last week, and is just still hanging? And if you think about it, you go back 10 months, oil, except for a couple of visits to the downside and a couple of visits to the upside, has been almost straight line. And we don't mind that. Stable commodity, stable yields. We don't mind that at all. Now, going back to those interest rates, the president is now jawboning what he calls a minimum.

Moron and imbecile and idiot addufus. Actually, those are my words. But yeah, the president is repeating what I have said about Jay Powell. But I'm just a voter. He's the president. He shouldn't be doing that. He really shouldn't. They're also threatening to come out with the next Fed chair soon.

Kind of like a shadow chair. The problem with that? he's going to be up the president's butt and since he's asking for 1% Fed funds rates he'll probably do it and that sucks that'll be a huge mistake because the president does not understand what that can possibly do for inflation

could get out of hand again up next the big beautiful bill we'll cover it because it's going to pass this is the one only investor's edge it always happens right before the whistle There's a little voice that says, What if I mess up?

What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I smile.

Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I've, and resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat or spend hours in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy

mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSC. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. By the way, do you know it doesn't get dark hit at like 10.15 p.m.? What is it? 820? That's sunniest as sunny can be outside right now. By the way, it was in the 90s today. I think it goes down to mid-70s tomorrow, which is more normal for this area. They had a little bit of a heat wave. And I must tell you, heat wave and oh, you got to be careful and this and that and this and that.

And I'm like, what? That's summer in Florida. Anyway, it was pretty hot today. Cooling off tomorrow. As you know, I have a, and this is a phrase, so it's accentuated, but I have a love-hate relationship with the president's policies. And I'm not big into the word hate, but I'm just using that because that's the phrase that's used the cliche, love hate. Let's call it love-dislike relationship with his policies. you know what they are but we get to the big beautiful bill and we got to discuss it because we think part of what's going on today is the fact that it's going to pass exactly what form not sure how is it going to pass when you had all these Republicans and you have this group of Republicans that are against big debt and deficits let's because they're all bull crap artists and what are we

mean by that? They don't want to fight the president. They get excommunicated. One of them was Tom Tillis. He is not running for re-election. Anyway, so let me explain a little bit. I'm not going to get deep into the weeds. You can go look at it yourself. The bill extends the 2017 tax cuts for all income levels. Now, let's start with that. every Democrat would have voted for a tax hike on every one of you. Just letting you know, by not doing this bill, the tax cuts of 17 expire. It would be a tax hike on everyone. That's number one. Not corporate because the corporate tax cuts in 17 were made permanent.

That would have to take new legislation to get rid of that. There'll be an increased standard deduction. You get this standard deduction right off your taxes. It eliminates taxes on tips and overtime, but I do believe there is a maximum of that. I must tell you, though, of interest to me is, isn't it? that easy to abuse? If I'm a restaurant owner, wouldn't I take care of my employees and say, well, you're going to keep 100%? We're going to turn everything into tips. Oh, and by the way, overtime, I think it's too easy to abuse. I can be wrong. Anyway, that's on there. It increases

deductions for seniors on Social Security by $4,000. By the way, I don't even know this. I'm no accountant, but I guess seniors get a tax deduction on how much they make from Social Security. It increased by $4,000. The bill makes permanent write-offs for business interest expenses and R&D. $170 billion for border security and construction of the border wall and deportations. It phases out solar and wind

tax credits beginning in 26 and completely phased out by 28. Electric vehicle tax credits will end in September of 25. There's something I like. Well, there are other things. I like, but there now is going to be Medicaid work requirements beginning in 26, meaning if you are able body of certain age and you want Medicaid, shouldn't you have to be able to

work 20 hours a week? There's a $50 billion fund for rural hospitals, auto loan interest tax deductible, as long as it's an American car, I do believe. It raises the debts. sealing $5 trillion bucks state and local tax deduction to $40,000 for people making $500,000 or less.

That's our money. And I'll leave the rest as it is. A new savings account for children. A thousand of funding will be provided. So you, the taxpayer, are going to be funding

babies to a tune of $1,000. bucks, child tax credit up a little bit, additional money for air traffic control. So I love, I love that they're making the tax cuts permanent, adding to the standard deduction. I love this social security thing. We'll see about the tips at overtime. I always like lower taxes.

Just remember, we're the ones who are in the money. money, never forget that, right? You're never going to forget that, right? So we love the tax side of this. We absolutely love it. And we don't want you to forget that every Democrat voted against this, which means they voted for tax hikes on every person in this country. We hate and let me be clear since we pull no punches on one side we're not going to pull any punches on the other side they're just plain old lying to you

about what this does debt and deficit wise they're just lying they're not mistaken they're not fibbing they're blatant line this bill insures $2 trillion yearly deficits

plus they're going to just keep getting bigger they're coming out to tell us oh we're lowering the deficit over 10 years $1.6 trillion well if you gain 100 pounds and then drop 10 pounds you still gain 90 pounds so they're full of crap from top down

this sickens the hell out of me on two reasons two very important reasons number one the debt and deficits. But even bigger than that, what a great opportunity to do something about it. Joe the Marxist lying sack Biden. That whole $1.8 trillion

inflation reduction act that he, by accident, said did nothing for inflation. President Coltbaum would have taken out a machete and cut that sucker down to size. You know what? This administration did nothing. And here's why.

Federal spending goes into GDP. There's a midterm election. It is the mother's milk for all these politicians. You just got the middle finger from this administration and the party. That's all. And I would say it to their faces. I don't think I'd say it to Trump's face.

I don't want to be deported. That was a joke. You get my point. Love hate. Love hate. And they're lying about the hate side. And for all you people that rip the stuffings out of Biden, but now we're okay with this, you're all hypocrites. And I tell you that to your face all.

Also, case closed on that. It helps in the near term. More spending goes to GDP. It's going to kill in the long run. That's all. Case closed. You can't argue numbers. You can't argue facts.

It's unfortunate. We move on. Up next, this that and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready?

I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games.

The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat or spend hours in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving.

Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today.

sponsored by GSC. We're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Inverster's Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. The Dow is up 470.

470 in the S&P's flat. NASDAQ's down 138. NASDAQ 100's down 173. it was just amazing if you can't tell how overtly weighted or overly weighted certain indices are

it's all proven today Dow's up 470 the S&P is flat and it's because of the technology weightings simple as that and the lack of better word the technology

big name growth beta it's getting the snot beaten out of them today we'll see if it lasts the market's going to close in about 30 minutes but it is quite the rough day the artificial intelligent names have been coming in pretty good

today we'll see if it lasts don't know I'm actually thrilled though do you know why some of them I haven't owned and I've been P-Oed at myself or not. If they pull back constructively towards moving averages or support levels that I like,

that'll be me. If they bury them, beat the heck out of them, break them down below moving averages and support levels, I'll have nothing to do. The good news is I have done some preliminary There's not much breaking down today. I got a few that are clipping some support levels, but nothing untoward. But the big story today is my stuff screen. As I said, transports, home builders, building construction, retail, Ford and GM look like they've bottomed, managed care, auto dealers. economically sensitive stuff like United Rentals, Caterpillar, home builder related like Whirlpool, William Sonoma, Pool Inc, restoration hardware, strong days.

Nice. Nice. American Express. Black Rock. Capital One. Goldman Sachs. J.P. Morgan. Acting well. Biotech may have woken up. Now, just so you know, these stuff areas don't have great growth in them. But they get going when they get going. And we think some of this has. to do with the legislation that's going to pass. Remember, these are all very economically sensitive. And lower taxes is pretty good for the economy. Two trillion dollar deficits in the short run, pretty good for the economy in the short run. By the way, even Hershey's is up 10 today. That's been a dead stock. There's got to be a reason why on that one.

regional banks, they've been dead. And versus the big banks, horror show, broke above a little resistance today. So that's the story. And add in stable rates, stable oil. I think we're in okay stead.

Notwithstanding a lot of gel are moving on the plate. I can tell you the very high beta growth funds today, got to be down 2%. And as I said, the S&P as I speak, is down. While the equal weighting, S&P is

up more than 1% today. And what is equal weight in case you don't know? I believe, I'll give you one, Apple is 7% of the S&P. Equal weighting makes Apple equal to the other 500 in the S&P. So it's

completely overweighted. So any stock is one for one. Doesn't matter. In the NASDAQ 100 at the highs, eight stocks were 55%. Think about that. Eight were 55%.

92 were 45%. S&P 500 at the highs recently, I believe 10 were 35%. 490 was 65%. Insanity. just like in the Dow, you ready for this?

If let's see, the lowest price name right now is Verizon. If Verizon went to zero, I'm giving you an approximate. If Verizon went to zero, it would cost the Dow about 280 Dow points, give or take 10 or 20. You got that? if it went to zero. The highest price name now is Goldman. If Goldman went to zero, ready for this?

4,500 Dow points. Insanity rules how these indices are set up. You got 30 Dow stocks, you got Verizon, and Goldman Sachs, the highest and lowest. Goldman Sachs matters more to the Dow by about a read, let's see, I'm going to call it about 17 times. Goldman Sachs matters 17 times more than Verizon. They should fix that, but they're not going to listen.

Anyway, it's three, almost three 40, down up 440, NASDAQ down, NASDAQ down 156. happy days. We'll be back tomorrow, by the way. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise from London. See tomorrow. Have a good night, everybody. Peace out. Take care. Bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Hi, this is Danielle Robeye, the host of Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club,

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