Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Flip Flop Monday

Episode Date: August 14, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Monday, August 14th, 2020, 23. I had a look at the date, believe it or not. Hope you had a good weekend. No good news out of Maui. we have to start with that

I've been wearing my Maui shirt all day I should have wore it on TV but I didn't just because I you know put on the tie and stuff nearing a hundred and they're saying

they've only really gone through 5% of the area and there's many hundreds missing they're finding families and they're really shouldn't I can stop it right there. If you want to help out, I gather you can go online and find out the right places to send. I'm just thinking about it because I know the area very well.

And north of it, nothing. South of it, nothing. It hit one area. north of it's Kano Pali and Kappaloa. South of it, well, you got to go around, then go south to Kihei down to Wailea.

And boy, oh boy. So if you want to help out, Oprah's helping out. She brought a CBS crew with her in. I think she's wonderful, but I don't understand people sometimes. I'm going to bring a camera crew in

while people are crapping. in the shelter, just trying to figure out life in general. Let's bring a camera crew. I guess when you use the camera crews, you're bringing camera crews, right? Next, if you hate them, you're happy. If you love them, I guess from what I read, you're loving them even more. We told you last week that it'd be this week, and now I'm 100% sure. The president, ex-president, is going to be indicted from Georgia.

And there's some doozy accusations in this one. And they have, what have I told you? He's his own worst enemy. They have texts and writings. You know how they say that it was election interference by the left? Well, they have proof that Trump was trying to do electric. election interference in Georgia. And again, if you hate him, you're loving this.

If you love him, you're screw it. They just don't like him. And he better hope none of this happens before the election and doubly hope he wins the election. Because I got news for you all that love this guy. He may go to jail. as a significant man, oh man. In case you do not know, ex-employees have testified against them to the grand jury as well as, that's all I got us.

Vice President Pence, and you know what I'm no fan of his, but man, he is, he's in that. creek without a paddle. That's my opinion. And I think he's boxing himself in like mixed nuts even more. He's ripping the judges. Boy, that's going to help him. I mean, saying some really nasty things about the judges and the prosecutors. I got news for him. It works in the debates. It ain't going to work in a court. Somebody needs to get to him. Anyway, I wanted to do that. I also want to mention in the market, U.S. Steel. Proposal will be bought out by CLF, Cliffs Natural,

but also somebody came in called S-Mark, wants to pay cash $35, and that got U.S. Steel even higher today. A very good move. I don't own any. Those are the little three things. I'm sure I missed a couple of other big things that stood out. We're going to cover the markets. We had a flip-flop day from the last couple of weeks.

And I'm going to be the voice of... How do I put this? Wall Street pulled a good one today. And it succeeded. I'll explain that in a minute. By the way, the steel stocks, a few other steel stocks are up in simple. empathy with the U.S. deal. This is a show about you and everything that affects you. Serious talk about you and everything affects you. We're talking markets, the economy,

employment, the Morlocks. By the way, I didn't mention Biden. Boy, they have them dead to rights if they want to. Boy, the Biden family, almost making the Clinton family look good. $20 million bucks to the family paid by nefarious people for doing no work. Money going in and out of shell companies. And I watch some Democrat BS artists on TV.

I got nothing there. Up yours, pal. Boy, oh boy. Wow. It's going to be probably Biden a corrupt sleaze bag and Trump who's got 78 indictments already

whatever you call them and more to come 350 million people in this country and this is what we end up with the bubonic plague against polio anyway and I'm actually in a good mood but I got to state facts to each and every one of you all right

so here's how today started out you can go look it up An analyst today made it Vintyre his number one best play. But the analyst already has a big buy on it. Why would he do that? Oh, that's right. It just dropped 80-some odd dollars. Well, it worked.

Amazingly, I knew that we were oversold today and we can bounce. and when I give you out the Dow, you're going to think nothing of it. But a very good bounce today in the areas that had been hit hard over the last three weeks. That being NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, and the semis. We'll describe it for you. But, Wall Street, baby. Yeah, let's make it my buy of the buy. even though I had a buy, and boy, oh boy, by the way,

Envidia was up 29 and changed today. Still down 40-some-odd bucks from recent high, but nice move. No argument. And it started down two bucks today. So we'll get into that and a heck of a lot more, but definitely a flip-flop day in the market. And we'll see. We're pretty much past earnings.

I know we're going to have Home Depot this week, which is important in the Dow. But really, it's going to be a slow week for earnings. Makes my job easier. You know what I had to do the last three weeks. 90 minutes before the market, 90 minutes after the market, just going through earnings and the mover's on earnings. And I got to tell you, it's a lot of work. so once we get past it

a little bit of relief so most important part of today when we go through the markets semis had a good day the semis which were below the 50 day moving average are still below the 50 day moving average

but when you think the number one semiconductor stock makes a 29 point move by the way it's about 6% in change, the rest of the semis will follow to a certain extent. Well, you almost had a 3% semiconductor move today. And I'm going to give you out a couple of numbers, which don't usually happen by accident. You know, we talk about stair steps here, the ability to hold them, the ability to move below them, the ability to move above them. Well, I wouldn't call it ability to move below.

But the move below. We're going to give out a couple of numbers today that actually kind of sort of speak for themselves. So up next, full market wrap. Movers of the day. I'll probably complain about something else today. I'm Gary. This is the one only. Investors Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

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This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again. to Investors Edge. Again, hope you have a good weekend. I spent a couple hours studying my fantasy football draft. Those of you who do that, you know what's going on this year. Now they're saying you've got to pick wide receivers early. My league used to be running back, running back, running back, running back, running back. First round. Now all I keep saying is Justin Jefferson,

Jamar Trace, C.D. Lamb and all these other wide receivers. Got to get them because we're going away from being the running back league to this league. We'll see how it goes. I pick eight this year out of ten. I have yet to name my team. I'm not sure what I'm. I usually make fun of something. We'll try that.

We'll figure that out. Anyway, the market wrap is brought to you by investment. Dash Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Well, the Dow was up 26.

Nothing. Right? That's nothing. And in fact, the Dow was down until the last three minutes. But the Dow was up. S&P up 25. NASDAQ 143. 1.1.1%.

NASDAQ 100 almost up 1.2%. Oh, 1.2%. That's no big deal. Well, it's a big 1.2% when you are in corrective mode. So here's how it started. You got an analyst come out and made NVIDIA his stock of the whatever. Best play. I call it, oh, it's down 80 some odd bucks in the last couple of weeks. Let me save it's you know what. because my bosses are all over my you know what. But it worked. It worked. And normally it does not.

So NVIDIA was up 29 and changed, and the semiconductors are up 100. Now, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index today hit a low today of 3488.55. You know what the low it hit? Back in June, June 23rd. 3489.13.58.15. Held, turned up nicely. Still below the 50-day moving average,

but I have to give it its due. Normally bounces, I will not give it its due. But it covered territory today. Today, the move covered territory. What I mean by that is a lot of the last two ugly days. I give it its due. Still in a near-term downtrend. You probably already worked off its oversold condition today.

And even though I'm complaining to you about this analyst, when I do my work tonight and do my scans, it drowns out all of that because it didn't. have to go up 29 bucks and change today. It could have gone up 15 and still be good. But it went up 29. That's a lot of territory in the semiconductor index as well as Nvidia. So we'll give it its due. Now the names we have been telling you about that we thought had the great reaction to earnings. Amazon was up to and changed today. Still range bound from its gap. Google was up one and three quarters today, still range bound from its gap.

Facebook was up four and a half today. Actually, at the low end of its recent gap, those are the three best. What did not do so well today, Tesla was down today and up 143 NASDAQ, they're lowering prices even more, especially in China. some previous leaders like Broadcom AVGO that just dropped almost 100 points was up 24 today to 854 but volume very light. Nvidia because you had the analyst only up 46%. Not so great.

Now as I'm doing my scans, not a lot of changes though. but you take it now we'll see what tomorrow brings whether it continue the NASDAQ got back right on to the 50 day moving in fact the NASDAQ 50 day moving average 13784 finished three points above the NASDAQ 100 15165 the 50 days finished about 40 points above Volume on the NASDAQ today, weak. In fact, very weak. That would be, yeah, I hate cliches. I won't use a cliche. That will be something that has to be watched. The S&P today, volume, about average from Friday.

But, advanced declines on the NASDAQ today. Up 143, NASDAQ 100, up 177, advanced the clients had to be great right 1736 up 2437 down russell 2000 was down what does that indicate the big guys new yearly highs on the nasdaq on a day where is up 143 in the nasdaq 100 177 58 new yearly highs new yearly lows 1 yearly lows 180 So the internals, not so great. That said, there's an analyst out there that's being applauded for his BS. As I look at the new yearly high list on the NASDAQ, I said how many 58, really?

There's maybe 10. Because I see some SPACs that trade 10 bucks. I see some non-operating companies. I see a couple of $5 biotech. There's a $1 biotech. I got Comcast. I got symbol APP. I got a couple of oils.

Celsius. CELH. That's that drink. Had another good day today. Very strong stock. Got very extended on earnings, not given anything back. And frankly, news corp is on the NASDAQ, that's New Yearly Highs. Ali's Bargan, OLLL-L-I, that's a new yearly high.

Constellation Energy, it's CEG, but still on the NASDAQ, that's a new yearly high. That's about it. Up next. Much more. This is the one-only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're

going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So before I get the emails on analysts, look, nothing personal. But Wall Street has a huge conflict of interest with the analysts, with rating services, and the like. And to me, what happened today with NVIDIA was nefarious. And I say that with no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive, but I know how life works in the markets. And during the bare market, we saw a ton of downgrades after 80% drops. That's number one. Number two is it's tiresome to see what we call moves not based on anything but we've got to move the stock.

we're getting our ars is kicked our clientele is P-Oed oh you have a strong buy in it you can't make it a stronger buy you already have a big target oh we can't raise an even bigger target with too far away let's just make it our best idea

let's make it a new one the best idea and I again must tell you I am surprised that moved up 30 bucks today and they report in nine days maybe 10 which always has me thinking that get leaked anything oh but that doesn't happen no not at all just things happen by accident you know the semiconductors which were up a hundred today after dropping 150 the last two days that's normal that's why we bring it up

but when all is said and done, and I have to repeat this, we'll forget about it. We'll do our scans later and we'll act accordingly based on what our eyes see because everything is always factored in. And if NVIDIA wants to drop back 20 bucks tomorrow, it will. If it wants to keep going up, it will. Regardless, it's just I always feel like letting you know where the chicanery is. And I think, well, let's harken back 08, analysts putting out buy recommendations, creating mortgage-backed securities, then selling it to others, and then you go and short it as a company.

That should be criminal, right? No. They just made it unethical. 15 years later I just saw in the last year where one of the regulatory bodies came out and said oh we don't want you doing that oh really

just so you know if I owned a broker dealer and I came up with some product and sold it to the masses and then immediately went and shorted it and then told everybody it was a piece of crap should go to jail.

That's what they did. There's emails where people called it the other word, not just crap, and nothing happened to them. There were no indictments. Major, major financial institutions were taking bad loans off their books before earnings, putting it back after earnings. Jail time for the CEO, right?

Nope. Not even a slap on the hand, but years later, and by the way, it was reported. Years later, regulatory bodies came back and said, oh, we shouldn't be doing that. And why didn't they get in trouble? You know the reason. Washington, D.C. has clasped hands with the big machas on Wall Street. And as you know, many big machas on Wall Street get to go to Washington, DC become even the Treasury Secretary, and many in Washington, D.C., go to Wall Street,

and they're all best buddies, and none of them are going to beat up on each other. So they can do all kinds of criminal activity that we go to jail. Look what's going on with the insider trading. They're not even ashamed these corrupt politicians. Some of them are coming out. They're trying to get legislation, so no more. stock trading. They shouldn't have to have legislation on no more stock trading. They should be able to stock trade. What they shouldn't be able to do is know that they're going to be voting

on some drug legislation in three weeks and they know what the vote's going to be and they act on it. That should be illegal. You should go to jail. They don't. In fact, they don't even get slapped on the hands. These politicians are crooked pieces of crap and I would say it to their faces. That's why we have absolutely no respect for them. We don't look at them as leaders. We just look at them as a bunch of debt-laden insider trading. People who get elected on them on a Tuesday and Tuesday night are trying to raise money for their next election. That's who they are in both parties. takes me back to Wall Street. Why aren't they going to jail? Where's the jail time?

You do realize they were kissing this guy from FTX's butt until the judge finally came in and put him back in jail because he was committing more crimes. And why were they kicking his kissing his butt? He gave bazillions to the politicians. You get it? So we just wanted to talk markets today, but just let me just got to connect the dots every now and then to what's going on. The rating services, you know the ones that just downgraded us? They're the same thing. Back in 08. They were rating mortgage-back securities that were doomed to die.

They were rating them AAA when they should have been rated triple Z. And there were emails between them saying these things suck. How are we rating them AAA? Why were they rating them AAA? Because they get paid by the people who put out those AAA things that are really triple Z. What do we call that? A cesspool. And we're just on the outside looking in as the money's changing hands.

And then you end up getting a J. Powell that prints $9 trillion to get everybody flush, everybody making ridiculous amounts. Bubbles here, bubbles there. Until that crashes, screws that up, creates inflation, almost destroyed the banks he did, and he don't even get any blame. Do you know why?

He's in that group. Can't get him. No. Can't get him. So just letting you know the intertwining of all this. But again, when all is said and done, We're going to do our job. We're going to look for uptrends, try to avoid downtrends,

stay with leadership, stay on top, and close our eyes, hold our nose and pray. So I do want to mention, while the semis and tech had a good bounce today, volume light, they're coming after financials. And I'm not sure what's going on here, but they're starting to roll over. financials in the midst of this and in particular I'm watching the regional banks of course KRE they better not roll them in case you do not know one of the things that's out there is the commercial real estate there's some issues and I've been reading up and trying to learn more about it and following up on it just to

be on top of it the numbers are kind of staggering. Small banks hold 1.9 trillion of commercial real estate loans, up nearly a trillion from 2017. And there's mass vacancies to boot. Stay tuned. Up next. Whatever. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One, Capital One, travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need.

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your Next, dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So I'm just writing some notes down as I scan, because we do that while we do this. Some good holds today. The S&P 500, a good hold right in and around the 50-day moving average. That's as vital as vital can be.

Less vital is Apple around that 177 area. Over the last week or so, it's been holding in and around there. And of course, Apple is probably still the... most important stock the semiconductors not yet at the 50-day moving average after really getting hit but did hold within 50 cents of the June low the QQ NASDAQ-100 ETF is sitting right on the 50-day volume very light just remember volume is the fuel volume is the more the volume the better by the way Nvidia just above the 50 day today at the close on that move. And by the way, there was a little news after the close and it's up two bucks.

Somebody said something about Saudi Arabia. I'll take a look in a little bit. But that's the most important part of the equation. I can't say that any louder. We tell you this all the time. The market is never going anywhere unless the, semis are involved to a decent extent. How do we know this? We've just been watching it for decades. Simple as that. So the fact they were up 100 today, nice. And don't think for a second, you know what I mean.

China, that's an issue. I don't know if you know this, but China has deflation. No, really. The problem with China is very simple. Governments taken over more and more and more and more. Not as bad as Venezuela, or maybe it is, and we don't know. They destroyed Venezuela when they took it over. You already know what Cuba looks like, amongst other countries, but China's got problems. In that, business is not very good. So the FXI, KWEB, CWEB.

I don't think I've mentioned this in ages, Argentina. I don't know if you know this. They just had an election. And the market did not like it early in the morning. Just letting you know. They reversed it a little bit. But the reason why I typically stay not foreign, I think there's a counting risk at some of these places.

There is government risk at some of these places. There's currency risk at some of these places. May I state for the record, big time currency risk. And as you know, I pretty much complain big time about what's going on here, but we're best of the worst. Is that okay? So as I'm doing my scans right now, there's some areas. Gold and silver.

Brazil. Not working. And as I've told you, I am stunned. Gold didn't skyrocket last year when inflation was out of control. I was always taught when inflation's out of control. Gold and silver is going to skyrocket. They went down. So it beats the heck out of me on that, and they still ain't, I don't know what's going on.

It just can't get a life. So for you gold bugs, sorry, I will give you good news. If you go back and go a monthly chart going back 20 years, you have one big gigantic pattern. If it ever does break out, look out. the longer something is in a trading range, usually the better the move. But it hasn't, and it's underperforming. And the gold miners are really underperforming the metal big time. Utilities ain't happened in the market.

Again, we're just letting you know there's still plenty of areas. What is happening? Oils. They pulled back today. Still in pretty good stead. What I'm going to be watching, remember we talked about all these blowups recently, in software and stuff. Little bounce today. Nothing spectacular.

That's going to have to change. But just left, you know, the most important part of the equation today, some kind sweet analyst with quite the interesting. Our best idea is Envidio, which just happened to drop. $85 and you know I want to keep my job so I better you know and again we're not going to tell you who it is one other area getting suspicious again consumer staples food drug not well some drug beverage tobacco household products look like rolling over investment managers may be rolling over You already know about the airlines. You know about two of the three cruise lines.

Royal Caribbean holding up. Norwegian cruise yagged. Carnival sitting around the 50-day moving average at better hold. But we repeat. Good to see the semis. We like bull markets. We hate bear markets. And the semiconductors very suspect.

And they still may be. But very good day today. thank you Mr. Analyst again today and we'll see whether they can follow through tomorrow again, Nvidia is up a little bit in the aftermarket but we got one big gigantic long night we'll see what happens and again we'll also be watching these financials

number one is the semis number two of the financials it used to be the financials number two the semis but after 08 financials went by the wayside so tomorrow by the way tomorrow I'll be on the 5 o'clock show, The Evening Edit, on Fox Business Network. So check that out. And same time here tomorrow. So you have a good evening, drive carefully when you get home to like we do.

It's quite simple. Make sure you can hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Have a great one, everybody. And if you're able to, a little help to the people of Maui. Peace out, all.

Take care. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges

worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.