Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - fork in the road [12.06.2023]

Episode Date: December 6, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday, December 6, 2023. Hope you're having a good day. Ladies and gentlemen, this is serious talk about you and everything that affects you. every now and then with a little comedy injected, but not a lot of comedy right now.

We talk about you, the economy, your jobs, your money, the markets, everything else in between from start to finish up and down and all around from D.C. to you. Why? Because they don't leave us the hell alone. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now the X feed. And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you really should you go to Twitter and put our name it. Or X. Whatever.

As you know, we've been starting a show talking about the Middle East and Israel and all that crap, but I just want to give it short shrift today. The three presidents of the elite schools that were in front of Congress yesterday, one of them rephrase themselves today. You see, Harvard probably got an earful from the board and some PR companies. saying, what kind of a freaking jackass robot are you? So they put out a statement. But when we don't want you ever forget, it's not just what they said.

When you have a chance, go look at them talking. Expressionless, emotionless. I don't even know if that's a word, passionless. reading from a script off of papers. They showed they didn't give a crap. And they answered their way until it ended up showing who they are. And the great news is they are getting blasted, they are getting castigated,

they are getting ripped by both sides of the aisle. And they easily earned it. We now know why these creeps, and I'm being nice, these young creeps have no problem protesting in plain sight. Of course, some with masks, about calling for the death of people? What? And I don't like doing the comparisons that others do. You know, there are people out there that are saying, imagine if it was white supremacist yelling for the deaths of blacks.

What would they be doing at these colleges? You got a bunch of people out there doing that. I'm not. But do you actually blame them for comparing? Remember what we tell you here. We don't see race, creed, color, gender. We believe everybody's equal. all we can tell you is we taught our kids certain thoughts, not rules because they got to set their own rules.

And that is you treat everybody equally. You don't look down on anybody. No matter what. No matter status. The bus boy who brings you your food. I got news for you. If he doesn't clean your table, you got a dirty table. That's what we taught our kids.

It doesn't matter what race, creed, color, gender, fat, skinny, tall, short. And the good news is my sons have lived that life. That's the way it's supposed to be. But amazingly, it isn't. And I must tell you, and we'll finish up because we've got to move on, the students, the Jewish students that stood up to tell their experiences in the halls of Congress made the three presidents of those schools look like the biggest doofuses on earth.

They showed them and vigor and passion and emotion and fright and care. These three presidents, they might as well been saying, well, we're going to go to Chipotle and get a burrito later. Is that okay with you? They didn't even sound like they gave a crap and when you have a chance

it's three hours long you don't need to do that just go look at some of the videos and not just what they said but how they say you can tell they didn't give a crap we move on we're going to say some very important things you know we don't say that statement often

though we believe everything we say is important even if it isn't but we're going to say some very important things today. And we hope you are listening because we think there's a good chance. If you listen to us,

you can save a crap load of money. Notice the word save. I didn't say make. What is the one area we continue to harp on while the market has rallied up we have told you to avoid? One area.

oils, energy, except some pipelines. There have been some pipeline, oil pipelines that have been on the stronger side. And why did we tell you that? Because we have great eyes. Remember, from July to October, oils, you can own them. November, actually towards the end of October, before the market even bottom, we started saying to you, we're a little bit wary of the oils because of quite too many are breaking down already. Well, oil prices tanked even more today. Even more. Breaking below the recent two weeks low,

heading towards the yearly low. We're talking oil prices now. Let's start with the good news. Price at the pump are going to come even down. If it stays right here at the close today for the next 10, days, not even go any lower. This is in the face of OPEC trying to get prices higher. So we hope you listen because now it's not funny anymore. You know, when something drops 5%, all right, it dropped 5%. 10% still not good. We're starting to see a bunch of 20s and 30s.

Schlumbergeret, very well known. 62 down to 49, 20-something percent, right? How about Warren Buffett's stock? Is it a new yearly low? He's been buying the hell out of it. He'll end up being right one day because he always is. Halliburton, 44 to 35, over 20 percent from the highs. And I can go on.

But that's really not what I want to talk about. We just hope you listen because as we said to it, I think it was like a week or so ago, we said, yeah, we got a little transfer in of oils. We sold them. That's not what we really want to talk about. What we want to talk about is what is it saying? First off, let me repeat. Fundamentally, it's good news at the pump. Anything you make with petroleum, that's a big help. But it's the drop now. It's been pretty darn big. Now, maybe it's saying nothing, but then it yields are plunging. And maybe that's saying nothing. But then we look at the facts. Not opinion. We look at the facts.

Credit card usage skyrocketed. Record high. Savings rates plunged, though bouncing around. We believe the job market has hit a high. And we are seeing signs that the job market is starting to wane a little bit. Nothing bad. But what is the oil prices and yields saying? Which takes me to the market part.

Because as yields have gone down, the market has gone up. Up next. What if the market doesn't go up anymore? This is the one only investors ad. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a national. syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized

services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-9.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So here is what I am watching. In specific, number one, as we have said to you, all of a sudden we're seeing everybody's bullish. Nobody's bearish anymore. Number two, our own channel checks, we think, you know, we just had a GDP or what, five point something, near six. We think the GDP this quarter is like

a one. If we get to the point where yields keep coming down and oil prices keep coming down, but the market craps, I think that'll be the market. telling us we're heading for some economic trouble of unknown numbers so we do want you to pay attention we said to you recently that we knocked out tech we didn't want to but we got indications but coming into today we were wondering if we were wrong now I knew on some that are way down from sales we're right. But overall, we're wondering

why. Apple breaks to a new yearly high yesterday. Nvidia holds the 50-day moving average, which in itself is not the greatest thing, but could be a sign. And they opened it hot today.

Well, they sold it down and sold it down damn good. Even with yields plunging and another $3 drop in oil prices. So number one, you don't want to own oils. They're croaking.

And now the things that were holding up, they're coming in, some coming in hard. Number two, anything breaking moving averages should be up for review. You know what that means, right? You should review. And then, of course, the weight of the evidence. As I speak, because I'm so ambidextrous, we're scanning. And we're just letting you know, we think there's a chance that, a chance. You got some petering out of some things that actually been doing okay.

Now, what had a good day today? Well, oil prices plunged, so what possibly could have a good day? Cruise lines had another good day. airlines though there's a component there of how ridiculous of a price Alaska Air is paying for

Hawaiian Air though I must tell you anything about Hawaii I love as you know I've I believe I've been there 12 times I've been told 11 I love it there and as you know one of my favorite hangouts

is Lahaina that I'm afraid to even go in look and I feel for the people there. But I digress. Just letting you know, today was one of those days where the distributed stock into lower rates and plunging oil. And now we are at the point of wondering,

not predicting, not guaranteeing whether the market is now going to start looking at something else. and you know what we think about the debt. You know what we think about the deficits. You know what we think about the consumer and where they stand. And inflation that they tell us everything's great. Everything's great. They don't tell you if something's up 10% last year and 3% this year,

well, that's 13, approximately. because it's actually a little more than 13, though the rate of inflation is down. So just keep that in your file manager, ladies and gentlemen. What I am telling you, we really do not want to see more days where oil's down three bucks, the 10 years down another half a stick, the 30 year down 8 tenths of a stick,

and the market open hot, and kind of reverse pretty badly with some important names showing the way that way in the midst of as we have told you oh everybody's now bullish bears where is it where are they

and as we've told you there's some indicators we follow the American Association of individual investors newsletter writers and just an overall scene and hearing and of course you know what everybody the loudest noise is right here's a shot across your bow you know what the loudest noise is bitcoin maybe it is going to a million i'm hearing about a bunch of that today you know

they weren't saying that nine months ago they were wondering whether it was going to zero nine months ago remember price moves emotion keep that in your file manager our mantra remains on that We told you years ago 90% of the coins would drop 90% or more with most going to zero and it's exactly what happened. They came out with 30,000 plus coins. We didn't even know that. Most are zero.

But there's a few left. And for whatever reason they become trading vehicles and I love when they try to explain to you why it's going up. Oh, it's going up because there's no whys. There's speculations. And I hope they keep going higher.

No, really. I like when people make money. I'm all for it. Just remember, when the music stops and there are no chairs, and just remember, the many have very short memories. The many. Why do you think gap stop rallied in the last week? And we told you that's indicative of froth and speculation, by the way.

Keep it in mind. some important thoughts from your handsome and buff toast that just added stairs to the workout. You know, my back's back to 100% and I'm back working out big time. Up next, what else we got on the table? That'll be up next on Investor's Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

Hizcoms highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge and a few other notes. We really do think the market's smart. And that's why we're really watching it closely. We're just seeing so much out there that possibly indicates late staginess on an economy. What we also want to you to remember that the Marxist in chief, Joe Biden, who by the way, finally last night said something about something, one of the spokesmen for the White House blasted the three presidents from those elite universities. So good on that.

I think we may be at some sort of inflection point. I'm not 100%. but I will be scanning 1,500 to 2,000 names tonight 200 sectors every country there's one thing I know for sure oils in a bare market bearish phase

downtrend whatever you want to call it it worsened today I know that for sure and we've been warning you for how long now weeks hope you listened and

we're getting some distribution and some of the big tech not a hundred and I say that with Apple going into a new high yesterday there are others that doesn't have to mean the end of the world

smaller thought I think maybe the financials hit a wall today just got tired as I scanned by the way damn are they hitting the oils now they were already hitting them but now they're really coming after them.

And may I repeat, we're just wondering what it is saying. We do believe the market has a voice. It has its voice with price movement. And we just listen and act accordingly. And there was a rhyme and reason on these oils. And it's all price. Any commodity price that goes up helps the stocks go up.

and vice averser. Damn, look at these breaks. I'm writing down the breaks one after the other. So stay tuned. Important words from your host. Maybe at some point here. Not 100% sure. What's the other area we told you?

Chinese depository receipts. ADR, as they call them. not all there's a couple that are strong but a lot of them are going by the wayside and if you look at the f x i or the kweb or the cweb you will see the south end of a northbound jackass bear market bearish phase downtrend you know what the good news is, I can't say that about a lot. But in a market that's gone through recovery, let us not forget. And I watch somebody on TV today that was bullish all through July and end of October,

while the Russell 2000 was at bare market lows, a thousand stocks were at new yearly lows, and they were bullish. And I watched somebody day on the tube saying, told you so. Yeah, I told you. Don't you remember? They're quite lucky I'm not doing the interview. We just want you to remember that. Before this rally up, from July to the end of October, oil prices went up, yields went up, markets went down markedly.

And since oil prices have come down, yields have come down markedly, the markets moved up. We are just in wonderment right now. We're wondering if we ever get to the point where those two things that have so helped the market off the lows in the last month, what if they are to the detriment of the market? What if they become a detriment of the market? Because, as I said at the outset,

now starting to pay attention to other things. We are not guaranteeing you anything. We're not telling you anything. We are posing it for you. Why? Because we're starting to see a little bit of ick. A little bit of ick. Just a little bit of ick.

On the day, it wasn't really about the close. It's about where we were. The Dow was only down 70 today. only down 70, but it was up 170, give or take. The S&P was only down 18 today, but at one time today was up 24. The NASDAQ finished down 83,

but at one time today, it was up 80-something. I want to make sure I got that number. right. Yeah, that's correct. And so on and so forth. The transport's only down 60. Advanced declines were a little bit negative today, but they were really strong early. The crypto reversed and a lot of the tech reversed. NVIDIA was up five on the open, finished down 12. And for you, NVIDIA-Ites, it is now sitting right on the 50-day moving. average and you don't want to see it break. One would suggest the number would be

450, which was the low on Monday. Take below that, not so sure that be good news. And I got to tell you, last night, I was excited about Invidia, hold in the 50 day, maybe this is good news. Nope. And other stocks which opened hot today. Some of my favorites.

Adobe finished down six was up seven early. For instance, and I can go on, but you get the point. Hot open, not so great clothes. It's just one day. We don't want to go further than that. We just wanted to make sure today to just pose some questions to you and to why, because the market reversed down today on the things it has done well off of.

A much lower oil price and lower yields. Stay tuned. What was strong again? Cruise lines, airlines, housing. Why would housing be strong? Well, direct correlation with lower rates.

Until it's not. We really hope you listen on oils. And of course, if we ever get to the point where we're mentioning a lot of other areas, you know what that means. And that's what we did for you from July to the end of October.

Every day we're on the show saying 80% of the markets and downtrends. Every day. We were yapping away. And then it turned. November 1st. Now we'll see if we're an inflection point.

Not 100%. That was a swallowing of some water. And for you cryptoites, think you may have hit a wall today too. Be careful. The good news is, we'll keep you informed. Up next, this that and the other thing, whatever else.

I'm Gary, this is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with

code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreaker. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. All right. In the news, Joe Biden, who again, I really do believe, and this is a very high bar to get over.

Light again today. I really do believe he took the championship belt from the last guy who was the greatest of all time. He said it's the Republicans' fault for the border crisis. Now that's the funniest crap I've heard in a long time. Well, almost the funniest crap I've heard in a long time. How these people are able to look into the camera and say things like that is just beyond the beyond. Just so you know, I always go to if I was the president. Here's what I would be doing with the border.

You ready? It's shut. It'd be shut. I'd sit down with the heads of Mexico and it would get shut. And we'll go back to the time where immigration was about legal immigration. I have some very good friends. that sweated it out for years. Money, time, patience to become citizens of this country.

Imagine how they feel when they see what they are seeing now. And now we are here in New York City's got to spend a couple of billion dollars so they're going to have less police. Why? You got it. And I'm a big believer. Come one, come all. But it must be controlled.

And I must tell you, as Mr. Logic, I have got to believe some bad people are in this country right now that got through that border. That shouldn't be hard to figure out, right? And I bet there's people in the White House right now that are crapping in the pants that something. that something could happen and then it's found out, oh, they came across and Joe Biden's very low approval ratings go even lower. Just shut it down.

Don't tell me it's complicated. It's shut down. You let them all know, you ain't getting squat if you come in here. We're going back to legal immigration. We'll enforce it like hell. And we'll give the people running Mexico an offer they can't refuse.

Oh, can't be done? Oh, yes, it can. Oh, hell yeah. Anyway, Joe Biden lied about that today. And of course, there was one other lie today. I didn't know anything about the business dealings of Hunter Biden. That's what he said today. Yes, I don't know nothing.

Lie. Blatent evidence. By the way, in case you don't know, you know the thing they say there's nothing there? The Biden family, a bunch from got like 20-some-odd million dollars for nothing from countries, from people who represent this, that, and the other thing, millions of dollars. Oh, but there's no evidence of anything.

No. I love when they try to tell you that. There's no evidence of anything. That was good lies today. Donald Trump, that's in the news. I watched them last night and may I state for the record because as you know I have blasted him

many a time on this show for the person he is there's got to be some sort of can we find a normal person to put in the body of Trump

and do some of Trump's up let me be clear low tech I'm all for it. Good. Less regulations. I'm all for it.

Get the hell out of our way. I'm all for it. We the people. I'm all for it. But then again, Trump, $7 trillion of debt. And I hear his apologists say, you know, it's not his fault.

Of course it was his fault. Tariffs. Lying about the tariffs. Man, if they can just implant somebody that's normal human being and then extract the stupidity out, we'd have something there. But that's wishful thinking, isn't it? Anyway, I stand fast by saying if it's Trump against Biden, it's the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague. And I mean that. And don't get pissed at me. You know I'm right. You know I'm right.

I'm scared out of my wits of both of them. Sorry. And we take no joy in any of that. In the news, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, campus shooter. Campus shooter shot things up. I'm not sure how many students, multiple victims are saying, and the shooter's dead. Can we keep one of these shooters from dying and then torture them? Seriously.

Man, we hate seeing that. In the news, Kevin McCarthy's out of Congress. He's leaving politics, but he says he's staying in politics. He's the guy that was ousted his speaker because of that yachts from Pensacola, Florida, which turned out to be a nothing move that affected nothing. And if you notice anything, you don't even see here, hide, or heard from him. They don't even want to talk to him anymore. In the news, you ready for this?

McDonald's, they announced plans. plans to open 10,000 new restaurants and 100 million loyalty members by 2027. Really? And they have something called a cosmic store coming out. I'm going to be reading about that. Hey, tomorrow I'm on with Stuart Varney. 9 a.m. hour in the Fox Business Network. Check that out in the same time for this show.

You do have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home to like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. You will feel better. will feel better and all that fun stuff everybody have a great one thanks for joining us and be well live well good night all this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk

to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary k com guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative

horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer with over 30 million pairs sold there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you don't settle for less go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.