Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Getting Them All!

Episode Date: September 29, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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while supplies last, loyalty programs subject to terms and conditions. Visit the Prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Thursday, September 29th, 2022. And here in Northeast Orlando, we, the Colt Bombs, are a lot of, live and well. We still have some wind and rain. I can tell you in our area, lots of trees down,

lots of branches down. I saw some signs down, saw a bunch of damage, went out a couple of hours ago just to check around. But man, oh man, oh man. I don't know if you've seen the video. of what's going down, what went down in southwest Florida, all just say some big, fat, juicy, gigantic prayers for all of those people there

that are going to be displaced. Who knows about the flood insurance situation, the hurricane insurance? One don't know, but this is, an occurrence of epic proportions. And you all know that I have been in some serious hurricanes before. I was not in Andrew many years ago. I lived in Bocca Raton, but the next day, me and some friends went down there because we knew they needed help. We went around with the National Guard.

and the place was just bombed out. The video I am seeing down in southwest Florida is like that. I have some good friends. Yes, I have good friends. I spoke to one of them there. The only quote, where's Noah's Ark when you need it? That's how bad things.

were that's how much water damage there was. I don't know if you ever been to Sanibel Island, which I have been on a few occasions. The bridge linking Sanibel Island to the mainland of Florida looks like it is out. We're hearing different stories on life. We're going to hold back on that. We heard about one person that went out to drain the point. pool and fell into canal and drowned. Just respect the weather, ladies and gentlemen.

That's all I can tell you. And don't listen to the clowns that are going to talk about, climate change. Just so you know, this hurricane was a bad one. We've had worse, we've had better. Well, there's no better ones. We've had worse. We've had better. The politics of all this is just a bunch of BS.

Next, may I state for the record as a citizen of Florida. DeSantis, the governor, has done a magnificent job for what you want a governor to do, and that is be out front and center, be professional, be to the point, talk about life first, property, second. And I think he's done a yeoman's job. He's passed my test. Unfortunately, as usual, the media, some media guy says, so-and-so says they're worried about you guys aren't up to the job or haven't done the job. I mean, if I was the Santas, I would have gone over and smack them in the teeth while this is going on,

and I'm not a violent person. Seriously, people may be dying, places destroyed, and the guy's trying to earn some political points. Unbelievable. Now, you know, I can't stand the media. But I digress. So I just wanted to start with that and move that out of the way for the second. And of course, we wish everybody well. Respect the weather.

We got lucky here. We got lucky. I never lost power. That's a first. I always lose power. I did not lose power today. All right, and we do have to segue into everything else. So every show, most every show, I make sure to say,

I have no clue about tomorrow. I have no clue about tomorrow. And the reason I say that is people, so many people get caught up in the short run and forget about what we're trying to do here, and that is the big, gigantic picture. on the markets. But if somebody caught me yesterday last night and said to me, I'll bet you a hundred bucks markets down big tomorrow, I would have made the bet.

My bet would have been we would have had some more upside testing off of yesterday's good move. For whatever reason it was, the market gap down today, the market went down today, off the lows but still we'll go through it and we'll explain what else happened today. But that's why I say all the time. I don't know what Tamar brings. We actually thought there was a chance yesterday could have started some sort of one of those counter trends. That's happened before.

The best ones lasted in the summer. Others have lasted a few weeks, some a couple of weeks, some a day. this one just gaped down today. And I don't even need to go into reasons because the dollar was down today. That should have helped. Yields that were up a stick early only finished up point four,

which is still up, but not so bad. You would ask the question, man, would that cause such a drop? And we'll go through the final numbers in a second. But I digress. It's just a bad day in the markets, notwithstanding a little bounce into the last hour. The big picture has not changed. The hope that we'd get some countertrend.

Not so sure and we'll explain why in a minute. Just not a very good day. The only thing I see green on my screen, let's see. Some gold stocks were up, some oil stocks were up. Not much, though. and just the smattering, and that's that. Not much more to say. It was kind of gross.

And we'll have some differing things to say today and some additions to say today. Notwithstanding, we have no clue what happens tomorrow. By the way, we mean that when we say that. And I would have been 100% wrong today if I bet last night on today. Again, that's why big picture. Muay importante. So let me finish up this part here again. Well, let's do this.

The Market Wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. I'd like to say this is good news, but it's not. The Dow did finish down. 458 today and easily gave back most of what it made yesterday. Though, may I state for the record,

the Dow, let's see, 225, 237, at one time today, the Dow is down 695. I don't know if that's good news, because we still finish down 458. The S&P finished down 78 today, and that was, it was, one time today. That can't be right. Oh, that's a NASDAQ. The NASDAQ finished down 324 today, but at one time today was down 415. But it's still finished down 314, not good news. The S&P 500 finished down 78 today.

At one time today, it was down 108. Again, not so sure that's good news, but at least it was off the lows. And the socks today finished down 80. At one time today, was this right? 2313? Make sure I get this right. 34. It was down 114.

So a little comeback at the end of the day, but it's the final numbers that matter. The final numbers today sucked. And we have no clue what happens tomorrow, end of quarter tomorrow. But up next, there was some things that stood out today. We'll tell you. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to that, pick areas you can scale.

Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive, Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.

We say you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? Uh, you're actually on an Organic Valley dairy farm where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start.

But there's so much nature. Exactly. Organic Valley's small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home. Extraordinary. Sure is. Organic Valley. Protecting where your food comes from.

Learn more about their delicious dairy. c-o-op. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. As you know, I'm a Mets fan, but congratulations to Aaron Drudge on number 61 and no no steroids. We believe no steroids with this guy. We think he's the home run king if he gets number 62. We don't give any credence to any of the rest that did steroids

because it doesn't change your swing, but definitely your power. Anyway, congratulations to him. So let me go over some things that stood out today. And the first thing I want to do, you heard about NFTs, right? Right? You know what an NFT is? Because frankly, I hope you never heard of it. Non-fungible token.

They define it as something on a blockchain which is associated with a digital or physical asset. Whatever. There was a big bubble. I've read stories about people that would buy one of these NFTs. one guy paid $2 million and he tried to put it up for sale and nobody bid $250. Let me just read this to you. Trading volumes in non-fungible tokens, which is digital art and collectibles recorded on blockchains. The volume has now tumbled 97% from a record high of January of this year.

That's all. warned you. People have been buying up their favorite athletes or celebrity digital thingabobs and paying asinine prices, Asa 10 and As 11. Just ridiculous prices. And now they can't even sell them. We hope you're listening. I'm told that this whole NFT mania and the crypto is like like a wipeout of two to three trillion dollars. And they're blaming tightening monetary policy. No, we're blaming bubbles. It was eventually going to happen. It always does happen. We hope you'll listen. And I don't know if you've checked out where the coins are, but they've been getting smoked. The dogy coin is still six cents amazingly.

And down 90% from the high. And they were reporting on it every day like it really was something. Remember what I used to do here on the show. I should do it more often. These coins can just be replaced with dog crap. If somebody just wants to pay a higher price for your dog that took a crap, the crap of your dog, that's all that was with these coins. That's all it was.

and the people that are just buried in these things now, just buried. They're still trying to tout you. Do you know in Miami they just had, it was like three months ago maybe? A conference and a crap load of people from all over the world came. Even though the Miami coin was down 95%. The hope and prayer of people is quite amazing. Let's continue. autos. So auto stocks, of course, have been the bare market, like most everything else.

GM was 67 in January. It closed at 33 today. Ford was 26, closed at 11. And the reason being is to worry about, you know, the consumer. And they talk supply chain, whatever. We're just letting you know that CarMax reported a 54% drop in earnings. The stock had already gone from a high in November of 156. And I believe that was an all-time high around 156 in November. It closed at 86 before today. It was already down big. It dropped another 25% today.

Average daily volume is $1.2 million. It did $7.7. 17 million today as they misestimates by miles and miles and listen to this sales the last four-quarter sales growth 64 49 212 and of course what did that do auto nation down 10% today um group one auto down 9% today. These are all retail auto. Penske Auto Group, down 9% today. By the way, Penske Auto Group was at a new high about

five weeks ago at 127. It's already down to 97. Lithium Motors, LAD, down 7%. Lithium Motors stock topped out at 36418 last year.

It's 215. Now, what does that say about the consumer? CarMax now is trading where it was in 2014. And by the way, I told you, I traded in two cars to CarMax, two elderly parents that we have. It was impeccable. Great business, great service, but obviously demand gone by-bye. I just want to mention that for starters on the autos, because that was supposedly a port in the storm.

Also, what weirded me out today and tells you about the market, you know what usually happens when we have a hurricane? Generac, maker of generators, skyrockets. It was down 7% today. I just wanted to mention that. That's not a big deal. but I thought it was worth mentioning. And then what we've been talking about and really picking up lately, the real estate stocks,

they just dropped 20% in the last five weeks. We'll talk about that next. I know a lot of the pressing stuff, but we deal in reality here. This is the one only investors edge. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale.

Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did.

We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept. that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition

and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.

Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? Uh, you're actually on an organic valley dairy farm where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature. Exactly. Organic Valley's small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home. Extraordinary.

is organic valley protecting where your food comes from learn more about their delicious dairy at ov c oop we're listening to america is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary called bomb comes highly recommended you're going to feel better if you talk to him so where were we depressing the living heck out of you um real estate stocks of all of kinds and they call them reits real estate investment trusts just trashed I'm looking at symbol O realty income corp doesn't matter it's made just then mention it was 75 six weeks ago it's 58 today and just crushed the IYR which

is the ETF is down 20% in the last six weeks and you know it's really crumbling and And this makes sense. Mortgage and loan real estate investment trusts. I'm going to just give out a symbol, CMTG, $19.40, down to $11.95 in the last six weeks. Oh, great, it's paying 12.4% now. That's no big help. L-A-D-R, that's a loan company. L-A-D-R.

I'm just pulling a couple out. In the last five days, went from $11.5.8.80. Fixed rate and floating rate commercial mortgages. Oh, that's paying 10.5% now. Oh, great. And then I'm looking at KKR Capital. That's Colbert, Kravitz, this is the one that invests in middle market U.S. companies,

the debt securities of them. 22 down to 16 and change in the last 12 trading days. I'm not going to do any more of those. It's just kind of stunning. Which takes me into the next one. Utilities. You know, the place to hide. Defensive.

Was it a new yearly high on September 12th? $78.22. The XLU. It's 6679, two and a half weeks later. What was that, 15%. And then I looked over and just put up some utility stocks. Consolidated Edison, 102 to 87. Semper Energy, 176 to 151.

Kind of like no place to hide. Which takes me to the next part. Apple. What's our motto? What's one of our bare market mottos? You know all the bare market mottos, right? In bare markets, you'll get absolutely no help from Wall Street, right? In bare markets, past bull market leaders will drop on average 70%.

And nobody believes that one until that we show it to them now on this one. What else? In bare markets, surprises happen to the downside. Like today, I'm surprised. What else? In bare markets, valuations will go coast to coast. coast from extreme overvaluation in the bull market to extreme undervaluation. In bare markets, price will go when nobody would believe it would ever go.

Okay? You don't think so? A Peloton has gone from 171 to 7. By the way, down another dollar and change today. If you can think back, anybody think? Peloton would go 171 to 7. How about, okay, Peloton, maybe a little faddish.

How about Facebook? Anybody think Facebook? We go from 384. By the way, it closed at 136, another, well, almost a new yearly low. That was two days ago. That's Facebook.

That's one of the fangs. You know, nothing could ever happen to them. are speaking of fangs Netflix 701 to 239 Netflix One of the fangs Remember

Got on the fangs forever Fangs fangs fangs Apple Eventually they get them all That's our thought process Apple still Is down only 22% from the highs By the way

The highs in January 183 recent high was 176. In the last big bear market, it dropped 60%. And this time, Apple has a much higher valuation than it did back then. And, and major deceleration of growth to the point where last quarter, earnings were down year over year. Now, we're not saying they're not going to re-accelerate again. We're just letting you know. Apple got hit yesterday on news in reverse, because the market was up 500, got a downgrade today, down $7.40. Apple, $7.40. What's $16 billion times $7.40? That's how much market cap. Apple lost today. That's, and that didn't help today.

Tesla, down 20 today. Eventually they get them all. To what extent we don't know. And by the way, Tesla is down for. from the highs of 414 to 268. So that's down pretty decently 35%. And by the way, that was 10 months ago. So just letting you know, maybe it's its time. And under the guise of getting them all, guess what they're doing with some solar stocks now, which have held up great,

starting to get the leaders. They haven't really gotten yet. They're still holding up, but some of them have gone. like S-E-D-G, croaked. That's a croaked solar. Others better. But,

eventually they get them all. So just stay tuned. By the way, I'm adding this up. Times 7.36. Apple lost $118 billion a market cap today. Eh, tiptoe through the tulips. For a company with $2.4 trillion market cap, which is still amazing.

Quite amazing. So we're letting you know we have no clue what tomorrow does, and you could have won money off of me last night. But just, wow, go look at a chart of KMX tonight. Go look a chart of XLU. Go look at a chart of LADR, probably a name you never heard of, but just try and explain what's going on with those things. Black Rock into New Year.

low ground today? What do they manage? $45 trillion or something? New Yearly lows. Blackstone around New Yearly lows. So not a very good day. They popped it up at the close today, got it back. I mean, hecko, from 670 to 458, but it was still 458, down 410 on the NASDAQ. Finished down 314. Yeah, it was still down 314. And now Micron, came out really crappy numbers. The stock's flat in the aftermarket, whatever. Maybe it's because the stock is already down 50% since last December. But you know what they said?

They said they are cutting cap X. You know what cap X is? Capital expenditures and fab equipment. And guess what? Oh, there goes some equipment makers farther down even more. We'll see what tomorrow brings. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.

I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer, what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes.

Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of, building hard things that others have not done before. Mm-hmm. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? Yeah.

My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills

and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? Uh, you're actually on an organic valley dairy farm, where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature. Exactly. Organic Valley's small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home.

Extraordinary. Sure is. Organic Valley. Protecting where your food comes from. Learn more about their delicious dairy at OV.c.O.O.P. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So here's another one. Nike, Just do it. Hit an all-time high last November, $179.10. The stock closed today at 95.

$0.33. And it's in the Dow. Down 46.8%. They reported earnings. It's down another $4 in change on earnings. Even though I guess they beat by a penny. What's the problem? They are in 93 cents a share versus last year's 116.

Guess what? Exactly. earnings down 20% year over a year. That is not really good news. Though they beat by a penny. That's because guidance has been coming down. Ever since Target lowered their numbers big time,

guidance for everything already came down. And the fact that the Nike can't really beat it well, well, guess what? Down another foreign change. They reported a 44% increase in inventory. Guess what the problem for that is? Gross margins. Why? Here's your lesson. If I'm a retailer and I end up with too much inventory, what do I have to do with that inventory? I have to get rid of it. If it is not selling it at the prices I am selling it at, what do I have to do?

Oh, I have to lower the prices. You know how Targeted Walmart got rid of a ton of excessive inventory? They lowered prices big time. It was great deals for a while. I don't know if it's a lot. I don't know if still there or not. But that is a big jump. Do you remember, was it six months ago, I'd say now? I came on this show and I got information that the top three PC makers, Eulet Packard, Lenovo, and Dell, that their inventories just skyrocketed year over year.

And of course, there's a simple thought process that, well there was so much cannibalization from guess what the pandemic everybody was buying laptops like crazy the pandemic computers at the house pandemic guess what we thought would happen with those stocks the stocks have cratered i think it was about six months ago del's gone from 55 to 34 bucks since Eulet Packard, 41 to 25. So one of the other things we watch is inventory levels. Skyrocketing inventories tells you two things. A, misjudgment on the part of the seller,

demand drop on the part of the buyer. One happens because the other. And the only way to move is that. Now, guess what the story is with Apple? Apple doesn't want to get caught with a crap load of inventory. It came out yesterday that they have lowered production for the new iPhone. But that's still not good news, less sales. So you've got a lot of that going on, ladies and gentlemen.

It's the best way I can explain it to you. And when I look at earnings, and remember I told you a few weeks ago, I saw somebody on TV said earnings look good? I'm like, is this person the biggest bull crap artist on earth or doesn't have a clue about what they're talking about? And then of course you hear, oh, the consumer's fine from the Fed and the White House. Well, they're just lying. They can't be that stupid because I have charts that show savings rates crashing while credit card usage skyrocketing. That is the definition of a consumer in trouble.

So how can they look into the camera and say that? both are bad outcomes lying or being stupid and now the autos just another that's at issue here and again go look at the chart of car max today and in case you don't know 8 and 9 is 17 and 7 is 2432 they only sell about they only have 34 billion in sales one would think they know what the heck's going on and don't forget what with just FedEx recently. Oh, they only do about $95 billion in deliveries. So when we told you

many months ago, watch the economy. And then we told you, you employees, get great at what you do and make sure you're invaluable to your employer. That's happened only in a few areas of the economy so far. We wonder going forward. We really do. You can't have this drop-off in demand and sales without it happening. Companies are very nice. They're not that nice. If somebody has 1,000 employees and demand drops big time and they know they only need 700, 300 will be gone or close to it.

So we are definitively on watch. Nothing we've seen on the economy gives us any. excitement at this second. And of course, we look at the housing front every night. Price is coming down. We predicted it perfectly for all of you. Nailed it. We acted ourselves on it.

We just don't know how bad or how far it goes. But due to the fact we think that every asset price, every economic statistic, and every data point and every decision by a consumer investor was based off of 0% interest rates and the printing up of $9 trillion. And that's all changed and now has gone coast to coast as these Fed heads do not shut up.

They're trying to imitate Paul Volker after being the biggest doves in history. I worry because of all that. Yields went back up a little bit to 3.74, but still nicely below the 4%. Let's hope yields don't go back towards 4%. How's that? We'll keep an eye.

on it. We'll keep a watch on it. A crappy day today, don't know what else to tell you. Don't have a clue about tomorrow. And no, I won't bet you. Have a great evening. Drive carefully and say big prayers for the people in southwest Florida. Have a great evening, everybody. When you get home, make sure you hug your children. Tomorrow will be on Neil Cavuto Fox Business Network between 12 and 2 and back here tomorrow with the show. Have a great one, everybody. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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