Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Giving back!
Episode Date: January 30, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.
Thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Monday, January 30th, 20, 23.
30 days have September, April, June, and November.
So tomorrow's the 31st.
I had to do that to figure it out.
Hope you had a good weekend.
Thanks for being with us.
This is a show about you and everything that affects you.
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and what the interlopers are doing to us.
That's what this show is about with a little comedy injected.
Every now and then, when need be.
Thanks for joining us.
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or press the button at gary k.com you can email me just be nice and we start so you're welcome
we told you we love the philadelphia eagles uh we thought they were just head and shoulders
above san fran now there was some extenuating circumstances but we don't care they beat them at the
line front and back and that was the end of it and as you know we don't pull any punches i think
since the year 2000, we're 19 and 3 in the Super Bowl.
In the playoffs, I think we're in the 70s, maybe even the 80s.
And the last couple years, we didn't really do anything because of, you know, COVID and all that crap.
We just didn't have a great feel, didn't want to do it.
And we've been very picky during this one.
We just saw the Philadelphia thing light up like a pinball machine.
We didn't bet Cincinnati against San Fran, excuse me, against.
Casey and of course the refs won 23 to 20 over Cincinnati just horrible disgusting disgusting it
maybe Casey still would have won and my homes is unbelievable but the refs suck they're that and
I know it's not an easy job but they got to do better just at the end of the game there was a third
down play where pass and complete going to fourth down they're punting out of nowhere
time elapsed, time lapsed. A ref walks in and said, no play. Oh, something about the clock. So I had to play
another one. Before that, there was a kickoff return. You know how all these kickoff returns
they call blocks in the backs in holding? Right in front of the runner, there was like a gargantuan
block in the back of the Cincinnati person. And they didn't call it. And the guy ended up at the 40-yard.
line. And of course, the last play was right. The guy pushed the quarterback after he was out
a bounce. It should be a penalty. But let's rewind the tape. And Joe Burrow was hit late.
On a third down play, no call. And of course, the announcers suck also. They don't want to
make the reps look bad, so they don't call them out. But it's just,
I've never, they're just so inconsistent, so bad.
And look what they do in the basketball game.
LeBron was going for a layup to win the game.
And his arm was completely hacked.
No call.
Ghost overtime, lose the game.
They just got to do better because they're getting worse by the year.
And God forbid if they ever do it to my New York Giants team.
Cincinnati lost the Super Bowl last year, but they really won.
That call at the end of the game.
It was a no call.
It was a nothing.
And they called it and the other team scored a touchdown at the end.
Game over.
It's got to stop.
And again, Cincinnati may have still lost the game,
but they took it away from them on just horrible calls.
And always at the end of the game.
At the end of the game, unless it's, I mean, just stop.
But anyway, back on point, you're welcome.
We love the Eagles.
And we will tell you flat out right now, we love the Eagles.
in the Super Bowl.
We think they're going to make mince meat out of Kansas City.
We don't even think it's going to be close.
The line's only two and a half.
And by the way, the weird thing was,
in the Eagle game, the line was only two and a half.
So really, that's a flat line
because you give two to three points for being a home team.
Like, what were they thinking?
And usually the odds makers are pretty darn good.
And I said to you, I would have thought the line was seven.
I think Philadelphia may win the Super Bowl
Are they playing Casey?
3413
I don't even think it's going to be close
Now guess what?
We have two weeks to go and we'll see if there's injuries or anything like that
And we'll adjust and we'll give our final pick before the game
But man oh man
I just think their heads and tails above
And that's your sports action of the day
And again, you're welcome
We'll get into the market.
The market was not a good day today.
What we call a give back of recent.
I just got to bring up a couple of things.
A couple months ago, I had a little medical event.
Nothing bad.
Turned out, nothing bad.
So I went into the hospital, and I'm getting the bills.
And I have to tell you, do they make it complicated on purpose?
The health care system, we already know about the tax code.
I'll get into that in a minute.
But they just decided to just complicate the hell out of it just so you're confused up the wazoo.
Without giving out the numbers, they come up with a number, then an adjusted number, then a paid number, then an OZ number.
What the hell is all that?
And then I got another bill from somewhere else, which was substantial.
I'm like, where did this come from?
I call the insurance company, and I got to tell you.
I had a conversation with the person with insurance.
I'm like, what do I pay you all this money for during the year?
And then I get this bill and I already met my deductible.
Well, because they put you in this room and not this room.
What?
What do you mean because they put me in this room and not this room?
Well, there's an emergency part and there's another part where we cover up certain percentage.
What?
They can't make things uniform.
Why?
Because it's easier to complicate the hell out of things.
Which leads me to the tax code.
Look what they've done with that.
Do you know the original tax code was 27 pages?
It's now 6,871 pages.
But when you add in the tax regulations and official tax guidance,
I'm not making this up, 75,000 pages.
On purpose.
They hate us.
These people running the show, they hate us.
us. They are the con artist. We are their marks. Why would they make it so confusing? Because they
hate us. Seriously, let's ask a logical question. For individuals, can it be very this? Ready?
If you make up to this, this is your tax rate. If you make up to that, it's your tax rate. If you make up to
that, your tax rate. Maybe putting a fourth one in there. And then you average it out.
And then you throw in, I don't mind home interest.
Housing interest.
That's good.
We're talking individuals, families.
You know, gives you a little incentive to buy a house.
What else?
What else?
What else you need?
So what did they do?
75,000 pages.
6,871 of actual tax code.
And we're supposed to figure this out.
By the way, this is just for individuals and families.
Forget whether you're a corporation.
The moving parts and that, forget about it.
They're insane.
And where they're victims.
Have you ever just spent five minutes even looking at it?
Einstein and Stephen Hawking couldn't figure it out.
I asked my accountant, how do you figure this stuff out?
You should see the look I get.
And I try to keep things very simplistic with my companies.
Where's this from?
Where's that from?
Where's this?
Oh, page number 4,208.
But doesn't page 4,272 contradict page 4,0008?
Yeah, kind of.
Which to one do I go with?
Well, let's go with this.
But what if they come back and say that?
Well, then you're going to have to adjust.
And aren't going to have to pay interest in penalties?
Maybe.
Look what they've done.
The health care system and our tax system is so screwed with illogical
gargantuan blob.
And when I spoke to my insurance company,
I was as very nice and charming as I usually am.
And I actually said to the person,
do you realize,
I don't understand what you're saying?
And why couldn't they coordinate
knowing why didn't you say something
when they contacted you?
Humana, humana, humana,
as Ralph Crandom them used to say,
on the honeymooners.
Anyway, that's that. Up next,
crappy day in the market.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
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With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And by the way, all this convoluted crap with the tax code, you know where it all comes from.
The politicians in cahoots with the lobbyists who are working for these industries.
That's where it comes from.
It's a cesspool.
It's an incestuous cesspool.
And we're the victims.
the cost for compliance and the taxes, it should be nothing.
Of course, the accounting lobby would be pissed.
You know how many times I've heard politicians say,
well, we're going to change the tax code
so you can send in your tax return on a postcard.
You know how many times I've heard that in the last decades?
A bazillion times that it never happens.
Do you know why?
They want to keep it confusing.
Imagine if you made a quarter million dollars
and you just know
my tax rate
15%.
I'm going to pay
37,500
but I get a
credit on
my
interest payments.
I get
I got to add one more.
Philanthropy. Charity.
That's a great write-off.
Incentive to give charity?
It's terrific.
You know, some of these Marxists
wanted to get
rid of that, you know that. You know, Sanders and the rest of these commies wanted to get rid of that.
How dare we give away money to charities? And then you come up with a number. But no, you got to add this, deduct that, add this, deduct that, multiply that, bring it down to this number.
Oh, you got to go backwards and do this and do that and do that. Oh, and then minus this and minus that. Oh, and then pay your account in two grand.
look what they've done
and yet they're all cursing each other out on a daily basis
and I think they're just laughing their arses off in the back rooms
you know the latest one
the republicans got rid of some of these people on the committees
good guess what the Democrats did to the Republicans
the same thing it's just turned about as fair play
and guess what the Democrats are doing complaining
and as usual the media in the tank complaining
Screw you
You did it to us
We're doing it to you
They took a couple of these
Antisemitic creeps off the committees
Good
Tough
racist anti-Semitic crap heads
So anyway
I just I was just
Had to mention this
Because I got the health care bill
And I'm like what
Huh
And then all I was thinking to myself
This is like the tax code
They're trying to drive us insane
They're doing a good job of it
Okay, did I tell you the Eagles won handily?
And you know, it was interesting.
I was going to bet Cincinnati and the under, myself, just small.
And I missed the bet.
I would have lost those two.
I really had no feel for the game.
I think the line was one and a half.
So it came down to that field goal at the end.
And now the market wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com.
That's Jim Rohraback.
one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market.
But it's proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
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You know, on Friday, if memory serves me right,
I said to you,
this froth in speculation again,
I mentioned to you this lucid
that some crook mentioned the buyout rumor
and there's no buyout of Lucid
and got away with it
and the stock ran up from 9 to 18
and then all of a sudden
GameStop
started rallying
and some other electric vehicles
and we just simply stated to you
that's not good news
back in August when they ran
bed bath and beyond from 4 to
30
the market top right then
so let's just keep that in the file
manager because the day after this occurred on Friday, Dowdown 260, S&P 52, the NASDAQ, which has been strong, 227, NASDAQ
154, the SOC 78, transports 326, we'll call it a decent give back.
But is there a cause and effect here?
You know, we have said to you that when bare markets usually end, when they end, it is normal.
That froth and speculation are dead.
And it seems like every rally they're buying the hunks of junk.
And as we say, it just don't be the last one in.
That lucid LCID hit almost 18 bucks on Friday, closed at 12.
1287 was down again to 1175.
That's a big loss if you're the last one in.
They ran up GameStop.
That hit a high of 2340.
Oh, it's only 21, 25, but still last I looked.
That's about 8%.
They ran up Fisker from 664 to 866.
It's back to 7.
What was that, 18% from the high on Friday?
And we just said to you, kind of not even in passing, we said it, we hope this isn't another one of those.
Dow down 260, S&P 52, NASDAQ 227, NASDAQ-254, SOC 78, and guess where the areas that have been strongest, the NASDAQ types?
So it's just one day, but man, you know how they were closing the market on the highs recently?
Today they kind of closed it on the lows.
So we'll call it the give-back day.
And remember he said the best of the moves were things, a lot of the bombed out names that have come up.
And hopefully if turning the corner and will stick, they all pulled in, some worse than others.
Not as bad as you would think on a 227 and 254 NASDAQ NASDAQ 100, but still enough.
And as we say, we don't have any idea what tomorrow is going to bring, but we'll be watching.
and we'll be on it.
My job tonight on the scanning front,
do we see anything break?
Also have no China had a rough day,
and we think there's a China component
with this technology thing.
They pulled that in pretty good.
A bunch of names, not everything.
Alibaba down seven.
Got some 5% to 10% moves on the downside,
a bunch of those China names.
And we'll see if there's an opportunity
to buy them on the pullback.
because China's been a strong area.
Transports have been a little bit better.
Down two and a half percent today.
It was just an icky day.
How's that?
This is an icky day.
Up next, more on these markets.
And whatever else, I'm Gary.
This is the one only investors, Ed.
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We're listening to.
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Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on its feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
here's another thing that I need to mention this could be of importance.
Putin looks like they're mobilizing 200,000 more troops.
I'm not so sure that's good news.
Escalation of that is not the best thing you want to see.
And of course, for life reasons, number one.
But we, you know, we know what this show's about.
To be watched?
What else are we watching?
Well, there's a lot of conflicting signals.
Conflicting signals on the economy.
You had a strong GDP number, but we always know that you can have an inventory bill,
you can have major government spending.
But the fact is, GDP was stronger.
The job market looks to be in pretty good shape, if not very good shape.
but then we get savings rates plunging, credit card usage skyrocketing, manufacturing numbers,
man, oh man, deep recession, services numbers, yikes, and then we say to you, how are we going into
recession of Caterpillar? Is it new yearly highs? If the industrials have come up pretty nicely over the
weeks. The London Futsi FTSC is it a yearly high? How do you have recessions? We know the market's
pretty darn smart or we just talk in moving targets here and then look out. So we're just
letting you know these are all the things we're watching. We're watching UPS and FedEx. We're watching
J.B. Hunt and Landstar. We're watching Old Dominion Freights. We're watching the retailers,
just their action. Give us some decent clues. Actually, we watch everything. The other part
equation, you know, it's been weak. Consumer Staples. They're usually weakest when the economy's
strong. Again, moving targets. Again, we're.
We shall be watching, closing our eyes, holding our nose and praying, which doesn't work we've tried.
So, icky day, we've yet to scan, but I'm called decent give back.
Not the end of the world, but we have some certain numbers underneath.
We would not want price to penetrate.
I don't know if we even need to mention yet, because it's kind of like not there yet.
but we'll let you know
but any weakness is not good
any weakness is bad weakness
so stay tuned
I can tell you we came into the weekend
we got some setups hopefully they break out
they all tucked in like frightened turtles today
all of them nothing got out to the upside
new yearly highs contracted
of course on a daylight today
hardly any
the good news is hardly any new yearly lows, which means we're off the lows.
And then this.
Tomorrow before the open, Caterpillar in the Dow.
GM McDonald's in the Dow.
Exxon used to be in the Dow.
A few others that are not as noteworthy but, oh, UPS.
Spotify, Pulte Holmes, Pfizer.
After the close tomorrow, Amgen in the Dow, advanced microdevices, important semi-com.
conductor. Western Digital is going to report a loss probably go up 10%.
Juniper Match.com, Mondalives.
Wednesday before the open.
Umana.
Old Dominion freight. Otis elevators, Peloton, Silicon Labs, T-Mobile, waste management,
after the close Wednesday, eBay, Facebook, Quervo, McKesson, Landstar,
C.H. Robinson, Worldwide.
Thursday before the open.
and Merck in the Dow. Quest Diagnostics. I get all my blood done there. Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Ferrari, Cardinal Health, Alibaba, and then after the close, look out.
How they ended up with this schedule is beyond me. Google, Amazon, and Apple.
26% of the NASDAQ 100 is reporting at the same time. And Qualcomm, which has to be a good percent or two of the NASDAQ 100. So really about 27, 28,
And then there's some semis after the close.
Cirrus Logic.
Microchip, very important name.
Skechers.
Starbucks.
U.S. Steel, the W.W.E.
By the way, did you see the Royal Rumble?
Boy, was that good.
So big week.
And then, of course, Wednesday.
Get this.
We get the Fed Wednesday after the close.
And then Thursday morning, those three stocks.
Oh, by the way, a Wednesday is the feds at 2 p.m.
And then we get the moron in his press conference saying, oh, blah, blah, blah.
And Wednesday after the close, I think, is Facebook, which, by the way, has acted pretty darn well as a recent, still down a bunch.
What you want to be careful about is what most people don't get.
There's been all this talk about the NASDAQ rally.
Look at these moves off the lows.
But they don't, I haven't heard them.
mention, well, look, that went up
25% in the last two weeks.
Oh, it's still down 60%
from the highs. Remember, the
biggest rallies
will be the short covering
rallies of bombed out names. If you can
catch them right, God bless you, not easy.
But very often,
they're just that.
Countertrends.
And man,
oh man, whether it's
Airbnb and Autodesk in the
A's or Zebra technology,
and Z scale in the Z's
A through Z there's been a lot of stuff
coming off the lows
but still down 50, 60, 70,
and 80. And then you got
some of this froth. Carvanna
today.
I mean, they're on the verge.
It was up 29%
today, up 231 to 10 bucks.
1008. Was 1087?
And what's the story behind
that? Oh, they have
50 million share short and only 100 million in the float.
People are speculating already.
Again, file manager stuff, but front and center file manager stuff.
I wish I had better news for you today because actually we want pullbacks.
We don't want nasty pullbacks.
We want what is known as controlled pullbacks.
one day not the end of the world don't want to see more and again i haven't scanned yet i'll get a feel
for it a little bit better actually i don't even know if i'll get a great feel for it off of one day
but i'll be able to separate big strength to strength to not so strength that yuck and then we get
to wake up tomorrow and do it all over again yay but again you are welcome
got a bunch of emails from people on the Eagles and just so you know we have we have a pretty
good feel for this and we don't really even do regular season we we go playoffs and I got to
again listen it's just it's still a football game and who turns the ball over you know you never
know who's going to have an off game at quarterback I just think the Eagles are steps above everyone
this year. And they're getting better as we move forward. And yeah, they kick my giant's butt.
So good luck to both teams. Cincinnati got railroaded again. I couldn't hold my tongue.
And I feel terrible for the guy who pushed them out at the end. Up next, more of this,
that, and the other thing, or whatever else. This is the one only investors edge.
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Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show,
with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit
for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer
to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the guesters edge.
With Gary Culpa.
So I mentioned earlier, and this is just
Gary given you a warning.
So on Friday, it was reported, and it actually got reported, a rumor of a buyout of Lucid Group, LCID.
They are, oh, another electric vehicle company.
By the way, they have sales versus a lot that do not.
In fact, they have pretty darn good sales growth over the last few quarters.
They still lose money.
But some crooked person floated it.
Somebody ran with it in the media.
And the stock went from 9 to 18, closed it 1280.
So if you bought in the midst, you could have lost some cake.
And it's back to 1175 today.
Just be careful.
Some bad people out there.
Just so you know that they did it with Roku, I think it was, yeah.
It was in November.
Oh, Roku, buy-out Ruber.
Think it ever happen?
No.
And just remember, rumors have to start from somewhere.
And these people lucky, I'm not heading up the regulatory place,
because I'd fine them.
I'd cite them.
If I can, I would indict him.
That rhyme, didn't it?
And then put him in jail.
For the things Nancy Pelosi's been doing for years,
but gets away with.
But I digress.
Just be very careful.
I can promise you, on an overall big picture basis, there's still a ton of stuff in bare markets.
A bunch of things that have come out of bare markets, but a ton of stuff still in bare markets.
And today, they knocked a bunch down that have had nice rallies up, and they can call it a short covering rally, whatever it may be.
Just remember, bull markets are made of a crapload of names.
breaking out of range into new high ground and ascending and pullbacks are controlled
rotational and once the pullbacks are over they get going again there's a
minority of names that fit that and many names that started to fit it and
crapped out and the best moves have been stuff
that have been hit the hardest, not taking away their moves.
Just a word of caution.
I don't want you to forget what they did with Bedbeth and Beyond in August.
A company on the verge of bankruptcy, they short squeeze from $450 to $30 in four days.
The day it hit $30, it closed at 23, the next day it closed at 19, the next day it closed at 11.
If you don't time this crap perfectly, you are losing a ton.
And of course, the stock's back at 287.
By the way, they squeezed it again two weeks ago from a buck 27 up to 587.
It's back to 287.
You know what that is?
What is that, a 60% drop from the highs?
55%.
On a company that just said,
well, you know, we can't pay back debt.
We need money.
so I'm just letting you know
a lot of this market is like walking on top of a porcupine
you got that
it's like a bunch of porcupines walking through balloons
just be careful
keep your feet on the ground
relax I will promise you
we will have another gargantuan
bull market eventually
gargantuan
not so sure we're there yet
and not to many
attention. Earnings have not been good. I've been reporting to look what this stock did and earnings were down 93%. If earnings don't reaccelerate, it's going to be a problem. So we're taking it one day at time, being very careful, very judicious, sizing appropriately, keeping it, what would I call it? Keeping it, lower temperature.
and very liquid in case, and then we get the froth and speculation that may or may not have led to today.
So stay tuned.
Remember, the market couldn't care less about any of us.
And this is going to be a real important week, the Fed and a ton of earnings.
And it's unfortunate that every six weeks, we've got to deal with these miseries at the central banks.
they really do not know what they're doing and they've really wreaked havoc and they really cause many problems long term.
They have enabled all this massive debt and deficits and haven't said a word about it in cahoots with these politicians.
Does that mean the market just can't go higher?
We didn't say that.
Just the weight of the evidence.
That's all we try to do.
And hopefully tomorrow is a better day.
Hopefully tomorrow is a better day.
We will report our...
all the important earnings reactions, what they look like, and most importantly, we will cover
the ones with the best reactions with strong earnings and revenue. Why? Those will eventually
typically lead when the market gets some footing for a while. How do we know this? We've studied
earnings reactions throughout the years there is a definitive cause and effect great
earnings reactions on great earnings are happening because something good's going on
and that's where we dip our toe oh you'll have a great evening drive carefully
and when you get home to like we do it's quite simple make sure you hug your
family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better
I quite promise.
TV tomorrow, not sure just yet.
We'll post it on Twitter.
But we will have this show tomorrow.
Hopefully good weather.
You have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home to like we do, it's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Take care all.
Always appreciate your time.
Bye, bye, bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum
on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk
dot com. That's GaryKK dot com.
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