Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Going the Wrong Way!

Episode Date: July 26, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.comGary Kaltbaum is a registered investment advisor with more than 30 years of experience in the markets. He is owner and president of Kaltbaum Capital Management, a financial investment advisory firm headquartered in Orlando, Florida. He is a Fox News Channel Business Contributor regularly appearing on Fox News Channel and the Fox Business Network. Gary is the author of the book “The Investors Edge” and is also the host of a nationally syndicated radio show with the same title “Investors Edge” which is broadcast on numerous stations across the U.S. The show is also available on demand and airs live 6-7 pm EST Monday-Friday.

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you were listening. It's Tuesday. It's July 26. It's 2022. We're here to talk about all that matters to you, the economy, jobs, money, markets, and everything else under the sun. And I don't think it's too much to say now more than ever. If you do not get this show in your city, you go to GaryK.com. You can listen live or archive. We're a lot. No, that's, we're going to post it at garyk.com. Every now and then, what you used to slips out.

We'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed where you can follow us on Twitter. And all you got to do is put our name in or click the button at garyk.com. You can email me and all you got to do is be nice because we are nice back. Simple is that. ladies and gentlemen i want to start the show one simple way and that's six months ago for starters and as you know we started worrying a long long time ago we think we have a pretty good feel for what's going on out there i think it was about six months ago

where we simply said to you on this show for the next two days we're going to do a lot of the economy. We went on to say because we're worried about the economy and we gave a myriad of reasons that we were worried.

Valid reasons. Big time valid reasons. We simply stated that inflation is going to cause a recession. We simply stated that. And how did we know this? And how did we know this in front of everybody else? Unlike everybody else, we study history.

And we study history in a very big way. and we added up the pieces of the puzzle for you, live, and the number one piece of the puzzle was how debt-laden and leverage-laden we have been as an economy, as a consumer. We worried how so much of that final move, the bubble move, was not a mirage because a mirage never really happens, but something that could not last and something that was going to go by the wayside.

We want to review it and then bring you up to date with it. It's very simple. You keep interest rates down at zero. What does it do? Simple. It makes the cost of money. mortgages, very low. It makes price move higher because of all the buying. But ultimately,

that one-two punch of higher mortgage rates that we told you would resolve up. And too high of prices, affordability would get the housing market. I got news for you. The housing market hasn't even gotten in big trouble yet. It's in trouble, but not big trouble yet. We told you all the bubbles way in advance. It was easy. It was simplistic. It wasn't even hard to figure out.

People were buying into coins. What? NFTs, what? Spacks that had no companies in it, what? Biotechs with no sales, with $5 billion market caps, what? Rivian with no sales of cars with $160 billion market cap? Just about as high as GM in Ford that had $260 billion in revenues, what? So we believe the wealth effect was a,

good part of the economy. The taking out of second mortgages. You know what that means. Let's say you own a home and it's worth $750,000. We're going to give a good number. And your mortgage is only 250. You have 500,000 in equity. And then the house goes from 750 to 1.25 million. Wow. You now have a lot more equity. But then you take out 500,000 for this, that, and the other thing. So you now have 750,000 of debt. And then what if the price of that home goes from one and a quarter back to 750? You're back to no equity. The wealth effect in reverse. I was just given that as an example, it's not that bad, but a lot of that is going on. A lot of that is going on. The markets, estimates of 30 trillion dollars globally evaporated, the wealth effect in reverse.

That was our outline. And we're just letting you know. at this juncture, a lot of economic numbers are coming out. For lack of a better word, worrisome. We actually state pretty darn worrisome, recessionary, which as we explained to, doesn't have to be the end of the world, unless it goes deep, unless it lasts a long time.

Consumer confidence way down. The betting on consumer going forward way down. The numbers coming out way down. And when you have a Walmart with 600 billion in revenues, worry something. And you know what happened today? because of Walmart and by the way, that's retail. Here's what happened today.

Lulu Lemon down $18 to $283. Restoration Hardware down 12 to $250. Tractor supply down 10 to 183. Target down almost 6 to 152 and that's way off the highs. Lows down 6 to 188. Home Depot down 8. to 298. Burlington down 12 to 139. Costco down 17 to 511. Decker's Outdoor 15 to 276. Dollar 3 down 11 to 158. Dillards down 9 to 216. That's just today. Dollar general down 6. Estee

Lauder down 7. 5 below down 8. Floor and Decor down 4. Children's Place 4. Ollie's 3. Ralph Lorenz, six, pool, down 12, raw stores, five. I don't know what Tamar brings. We're just letting you know what we started worrying about way in advance. Some of them numbers be coming out. Up next. Today, much more. I'm Gary.

This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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That's 888-4-22-55-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know,

I just have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on beyond the script.

a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again, to Investors Edge. If we sound a little different, we are on the iPhone app of our show. as we are traveling right now we were at the t w a hotel at jfk airport heading for uh spain tonight um we did not miss a beat today uh in the markets we got to watch everything and it was not a pretty day maybe tomorrow be better lots of jello moving on the plate and lots of earnings but i want to get back to the economy more than two years ago i outlined for you

the worry of an economic bust and you know I measure my words very carefully we do not believe in hyperbole we're not one of those people that come out and tell you Dow's going to 50,000 Dow's going to 20,000 we measure ourselves very carefully we have told you to read extraordinary popular delusions in the madness of crowd crowds that's whole book on craziness and the last year or two defines that book and we simply worried busts from central bank booms nine trillion of printed money and zero percent interest rates did the trick and the question is we've had bus in a ton of areas. Well, what about the economy?

We have 30 trillion of debt. Savings rates are now plunging. Credit card usage is skyrocketing. The one thing that has stood tall is employment. What if that changes? And that's why we are watching that bad boy like there's no tomorrow. Big time, no tomorrow. no tomorrow. We think there can be big trouble if we lose the employment situation. And all these

people that tell you their geniuses, they won't know what to do about it. All these people that are running this country, with many of them causing it, what we are saying, will not know what to do about it. all this debt, all this leverage, these are the worries. So stay tuned. And just let me repeat, we're not Cassandra's, but we're realists. And more and more numbers that come out do not thrill. Consumer confidence, amongst other things. You already know about inflation.

We warned you about that. everybody else was late and taken credit. We don't care. Everything that has happened, we warned you about. We'll keep you in touch. Interesting moment in time. Speaking of interesting moments in time. As you know, we've been to bear market with a counter-trend rally. We've been worried the last couple of days that maybe we hit a wall, started to see a few things that we're trying to get going off the lows turned down and turned down badly. We've said the following words probably a thousand times. There really isn't any leadership in the market. And in order to have bull markets, you need real leadership. We've mentioned the smattering of names. We've mentioned

the managed care group, amongst other things. But that's it. And it's not like they're going anywhere. They're just not knowing it's a bare market. So we come into today and massive amounts of earnings. And you never know who's going to do what. I can tell you McDonald's was up six bucks on a 3% drop in earnings. Excuse me, sales.

We can tell you 3M was. up six bucks, spend a dead stock, big bear market. They're spinning off health care. Yay, but then we can tell you UPS down a lot, for starters. And we can go through a litany of names that act like you know what. We could also tell you things like Goldman Sachs, reported terrible numbers, but still went up. How long can that last? So we come in today and we didn't really have a thought process. Just that bare market rally. We'll see how long it lasts. And then we got a Walmart.

And if Walmart was a small retailer, no biggie, but it is a monster. And that's why we read off to you all these retail stocks today from the get-go. And I saw some people making excuses. Well, let's be, stop making excuses. Consumers got some issues. So we're going to watch two things now. listen carefully housing

and employment they're going to need to stick if they don't we'll get a deep recession and when that lasts a while and as we've said to you even though

and don't ask me why they keep mentioning about a central banker will do something about the economy what have we been telling you he can't do anything he blew it he screwed up he's still screwing up and they continue to try and play god with markets not a good thing that'll be tomorrow but doesn't matter he's going to raise his rates to two

and a quarter points the 10 years of 2.8 that's the one that matters it's not very high but when you're used to one it does so today's market wrap not very good. Brought to you by Investment-Dashmottles.com. Next Jim, we're back, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-dash-models.com, Dowdown 228, S&P, down 45. Up, that's my music. We'll finish that part up in a minute. Lots more. Please listen. It's important. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.

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On deck does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And look, once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. I hope you're having a good day. As we said, down down 228, S&P, down 45, NASDAQ,

220, NASDAQ, 20, 20401, the SOX 46, the transports 251, and just a crummy day. And it started out with Walmart. And the market tried to rally a couple of times and just could not stand. And nothing redeeming about today really whatsoever, except we have a lot more numbers coming out. And we'll go through them as we move through. I'm moving some paper around, by the way. You may hear it easier. I'll just aftermarket Google, which has been very weak, closed at 105.

I got it at 108, even though they miss numbers. And I'll look at those numbers a little bit later. Microsoft, and I must tell you, was down seven to half bucks today on no news? Well, they reported, and they missed. But only down another two bucks in the aftermarket. market two and a half bucks because it was already down seven half bucks so it's down nine bucks and change for the day that's a big move for a Microsoft I got to mention Chipotle because I got to tell you when they move that thing or up or down they closed it at 1,316 it's up almost 100 points in the

aftermarket I guess they're selling a lot of burritos even though I complained about them on this show remember I complained about them I went to one in uh Orlando dirty dinners G the place was a mess and outlier but Chipotle's up 97 bucks in the aftermarket. Yay, we'll take it. Texas Instruments up five in change in the aftermarket, semiconductor been down, N-phase, EMPH, a name we watch in solar up 10 bucks to 226, Up Visa in the Dow? Only up two bucks.

Stock's been dead money for a while. But the big story today, we just don't want to see, listen carefully. We do not want to see New Yearly Lows pick up. Remember, the indices have not broken new yearly lows. If New Yearly Lows pick up individual names, that means we're going to be on our way. It picked up a little today.

You know what else we don't want to see, which we definitely saw the last two days? Growth, technology, software, and the like. Hammered, for lack of a better word. Absolutely hammered. Not something we want to see. You know how we were mentioned to you these names that have been down 50, 60, 70, 80 percent from the highs, but stopped going down for a couple of months and started turning up some better than others.

Looks done with a bunch of names breaking badly. Without diving too deep, there are names we filed like Palo Alto Networks because it held up very well up until April. It was down 40 bucks today on No News to 465. What's with that? Tesla.

Down another 25 bucks today, the 780. It's down about $65, $70 since Friday. That does not happen in bull markets. So tough go, rough go still, notwithstanding a lot more earnings to come, a heck of a lot more. But we're now past Microsoft and Google, both missed. But Google's way down, Microsoft, way down. And now to come, by the way, I'll look at Chipotle closely in a little. a little while. To come, tomorrow, Boeing and the Dow, Shopify, there's another one. It's only down

80% from the highs as a big leader until last year. Oh, they're firing 10% of their workforce and little memo to each and every one of you. When you fire 10% of your workforce, it means not good. Tomorrow, Northfolk Southern, Old Dominion Freight, were just setting the stage here. Lamb Research. Ford. Boy, there's a ton tomorrow. That's after the close. After the close tomorrow, Facebook, Qualcomm, Service Now, the stock's been torched.

And then Thursday, Apple Amazon, both look like they may have sandbagged. So expectations are very low. We'll see what happens. One of the things we're worried about, and we told you this a few months ago, we found out out of nowhere one day from some pretty reliable source, that the three top PC makers, inventory 40% higher very quickly. That means demand falls off a ledge. Why?

Simple. Cannibalization from COVID. We're just wondering who else. We're wondering who else. With Amazon, well, Walmart not good. We'll see. Amazon was now five bucks today, which by the way is 100 bucks. with their 20 for one split.

And by the way, Shopify, with its drop of five bucks today, that's 50 bucks with its 10 for one split. So less than thrilling, which will take us tomorrow. You may believe me, you may not believe me. Jay Powell is now overrated. He played God with markets for too long.

He no longer can. He created all this inflation. Then Biden added, to it and then Russia added to it. The inflation's caused recession. And because inflation, which has come down some but is still high, J. Powell has to do the unthinkable and that's raise rates into a recession. We have no idea how the market's going to react to him tomorrow.

We have no idea what he's going to say. But we can tell you it's a bunch of gibberish, not to the point. And unfortunately, the questions will not be hard hitting. and it won't be accusatory, which it should be. He has gotten no blame for where we are. And that's because the blame goes to the politicians because it's an election season. He's lucked out.

A miserable failure at his job has lucked out. We'll be in Spain tomorrow, watching everything. I do not think we'll have any television. on what he does but we'll have it in the news and we'll see what happens the only thing we can tell you is the markets back to being under some pressure at very low areas of the market we've rallied up a little bit nascent rally if we're already hitting a wall here that would not be good news hopefully better things to come not so sure oils, which we said yesterday, we thought maybe putting in a low, had a good day yesterday, started

good today, came down towards the end of the day, nothing bad. And that's because the whole market's down and they're just stocks. Oil prices pulled back a little bit today. That's good news. Otherwise, I have not much anything redeeming out of the action, except if you own Chipotle, you're a happy camper. Chipotle is up 110 bucks in the aftermarket. Well done. Never thought the burritos would do it.

What they're saying is, is that same store? Good. They actually missed on revenues. But they see third quarter comps, mid to high single digits. Of course, that includes price increases. And that's much ahead of estimates. I'll have to take a look at it. and where it opens tomorrow.

Thursday, we get a GDP number. Overrated. I know you're going to have to pay attention because it's going to be front and center. Overrated. If it comes in negative, that's a definition of recession. The administration will lie to you.

If it doesn't come in negative, they'll say yesi, you'll tell you, but I'm going to be telling you we're still in very rough shape. Up next. we'll wind it up. A few more notes. I'm here.

This is the one normal investors are. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues

we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting for, fresh or pursuing a lifelong passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Cash flow crunch? On-deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

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your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So let me do some experience. explaining here so you have an understanding on the economy and what's going on and Walmart and why all these retail stocks are getting, well, they've been trashed for a while, but just worsening. So if you go into Walmart, especially like into a super Walmart or super target, you will see they sell anything and everything. But here's how it works. When the average American goes into, say does all. all this shopping at a Walmart.

I think they go first. It's called the necessities for the family. If you're a mom or a dad, you're going into the food, you're going into the household products, the cleaners, household products, the beverages, hopefully it's not the beer, overrated. you may have to go to the pharmacy a need how about them diapers for the kid a necessity and then while they're buying all these necessities hey honey the bill is 37 bucks more than it was six months ago and we're doing this weekly now you may say to yourselves

All right, 37 a week, 148 bucks in a month. But I got news for you. That 148 will prevent Americans, average, even above average, to go buy an extra pot or pan that they may or may not need. Now, I'm simplifying things, but that's how it works. And of course, there's 300 million of us. and it adds up. Oh, used to fill up the tank for $40. And you know, you got to go to work back and forth.

And now it's 65. And you're filling that up once a week. That's $100 in a month. What do you do? You look for other places to cut. That's how it works. in its simplistic forms, but then add up the other things.

My 401k was 60 grand, it's now 40. Well, I wasn't going to use it for another 20 years, but, man, I feel less wealthy. Your $300,000 house, you took out a second mortgage. Prices coming down. You have less equity. all this does is change behavior.

That's how it works. That's the explanation. And of course, it's not that simple. Why? As I said, globally, 30 trillion of wealth is evaporated. Not sure the number here, but I can bet you big time that is affected. But I'm not done.

What did a lot of people get them, into in the last two years the coins how they doing when I tell you that stable coin opens up at zero and somebody lost 400 grand overnight where's their spending gonna come from they came out with 20,000 coins catching the drift and what ends up happening maybe take one less trip or if you take a trip two less days this is how it works. You got three streaming services. Let's change that to two. That's how it feeds. And that's why I'm worried about jobs. Because if we go through a cycle of less in less

spending on the consumer, and as I said, you, savings rates are down and which masks some potential serious problems. Well, what if that restaurant and their business drops 20%? There goes a waitress and a bus boy. If you lose that waitress and a bus boy, and then you can just start figuring out the rest. That's how the economy works. And unfortunately, the people that put us in this position

are still running it. And unfortunately, we have 30 trillion of debt, massive leverage, still have inflation, though it's coming down a little bit, good, and that's why we've been talking economy. And keep in mind all the action you've seen in the markets, it's the markets talking about the economy. You don't have to look much further. the one thing they all have going for them is us. We're still working our tails off. We're still working our butts off. We're still wanting to do better for ourselves and our family.

But they've become opponents and they worry the heck out of me. Hopefully better days ahead. Today not a good day. Hopefully better tomorrow. Have a good evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, it is quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, you hug your children. They will feel better, you will feel better.

I had a three and a half hour delay last night, so I'm whipped. I'll be getting some sleep tonight. Until tomorrow from Barcelona. Peace out all. Thanks for joining us. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,

go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers,

starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. Atapus.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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